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Mainstreet NL 15may2019
Mainstreet NL 15may2019
Newfoundland and
Labrador Election
Voter Intention Numbers
Best Premier Numbers
Is the Province on the right track?
15th May 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of a With 20 years of political experience in all three
survey conducted between May 13th to 14th, 2019 levels of government, President and CEO Quito
among a sample of 643 adults, 18 years of age Maggi is a respected commentator on international
or older, living in Newfoundland and Labrador. public affairs.
The survey was conducted using automated
telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular Research has provided accurate snapshots of
phones. public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
The sampling frame was derived from both to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
a national telephone directory compiled by in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
Mainstreet Research from various commerical accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
available sources and random digit dialing. was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research is a
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research member of the World Association for Public Opinion
and was not sponsored by a third party. Research and the Market Research Intelligence
Association and meets international and Canadian
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.86% and publication standards.
is accurate 19 times out of 20.
CONTACT INFORMATION
(full methodology appears at the end of this In Ottawa:
report) Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
15 May 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives have a four-point lead over the
governing Liberals in what is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in Newfoundland
and Labrador history.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest Newfoundland and Labrador poll,
which surveyed 643 Newfoundland and Labrador residents between May 13th and May
14th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.86% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“The PCs are leading in the popular vote but we are finding that their vote is inefficient,” said
Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Because of this, we can see Dwight
Ball winning the most seats tomorrow even though he looks set to lose the popular vote.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Ches Crosbie have 45.3%, while the
Liberals led by Dwight Ball come in with 41.2%. The NDP led by Alison Coffin have 7.7%,
while the NL Alliance with Graydon Pelley at the helm have 3.4%.
“The NDP have taken a big hit in support simply because they were unable to field a full slate
of candidates,” added Maggi. “This will play to the Liberals’ advantage as they will be the
only progressive option in most ridings outside of St. John’s.”
When asked who they thought would make the best premier, 35.3% said that they prefer
Crosbie, while 33.7% said they thought Ball would be the best premier.
However, when asked whether they thought the province was on the right track or not, 50.2%
said that it was on the wrong track while only 27.2% said that it was on the right track.
“How voters in Newfoundland and Labrador see these two issues indicate some indecision,”
concluded Maggi. “It could play to the Liberals’ advantage if voters go to the ballot box with
the party leaders at the front of their minds.”
“However, if they are more concerned about the general direction of the province, then that
would give an advantage to the PCs”.
-30-
13%
1.8%
3.2%
36%
6.1%
All Voters
All Voters
Decided and Leaning
39.9%
Voters
13%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives 2.4%
NDP NL Alliance Another Party Undecided
3.4%
1.8% 7.7%
3.2%
36%
6.1%
41.2%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
45.3%
39.9%
11.2%
4.3%
33.7%
4.3%
7.8%
7.8%
35.3%
35.3%
Dwight Ball Ches Crosbie Alison Co n Graydon Pelley None Of Them Undecided
Dwight Ball Ches Crosbie Alison Co n Graydon Pelley Neither of Them Undecided
22%
27.8%
50.2%
50.2%
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-party
organization.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. In both cases,
respondents were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age and gender.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.86% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 5.66%, Females: +/- 5.31%, 18-34
age group: +/- 11.63%, 35-49 age group: +/- 8.17%, 50-64 age group: +/-6.46%, 65+ age group:
+/- 6.96%, St. John’s: +/- 7.58%, Rest of NL: +/- 4.49%.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.