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Ratio Analysis
Ratio Analysis
Ratio Analysis
BANGLADESH-
AN APPLICATION OF SELECTED CAMELS RATIO
Submitted by:
Mohammad Jahid Iqbal
Examination Committee:
Dr. Sundor Vankatesh (Chairperson)
Dr. Juthathip Jongwanich (Co-chair)
Dr. Yousre Badir (Member)
1
Agenda of the Presentation.
3
Research Methodology
4
Evolution of CAMELS rating system.
5
CAMELS rating system: C – Capital Adequacy, A – Asset
Quality, M – Management (Efficiency), E – Earning (Capacity),
L – Liquidity (Management), S – Sensitivity to Market Risks
6
Banking sector’s Assets-Deposits scenario
in BD
30
28.1
25 26
22.9 24.2 24
21.4 22.7 22.7
20
Percentage (% )
15
11.4 12.1
11.6
10 9.7 10.5 10.3 9.8 10.6
9.6 10.1
8.4
7.7 9.1
8.7 9.1 7.9 9
7.5
6.9 6.7 6.9
5 4.3 5.6
4.1 4.1
0 1.1 0.4
-0.4
-52001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-5.5 2008-5.3 2009 2010
-7.5 -6.7
-10
SCBs DFIs PCBs FCBs Total
Source: BB Annual Report (2002-2010)
• Increase trend of CRAR among all types of Banks.
• DFIs shows the negative CRAR due to the adjustment of huge loss.
• Industry CRAR is in down turn in 2005 due to the loss adjustment by SCBs and DFIs.
• SCBs shows a significant increase after 2006 in CRAR due to the increase of capital by
creating goodwill which has to be adjusted within 10 years during the corporatization of
three SCBs.
8
CRAR of Some Developed and Emerging Economy.
Percent (%)
25
20
P ercentag e(% )
15
10
0
2006.5 2007 2007.5 2008 2008.5 2009 2009.5 2010 2010.5
9 CRAR is still low in BD compared to other countries due to small capital base.
NPLs to total loans ratios by types of banks
Percent (%)
NPL to Total Loan Ratio
60
56.1
Percen tag e (% )
50 47.4
40 42.9
33.7 34.9 33.7
30 28 29 29.9
28.6
25.3 22.9 25.4
25.5 25.9 24.2
20 22.1 21.4 21.4
16.4 17.6 15.7
12.4 13.6 13.2 13.2 10.8
10 8.5 9.2 7.3
2.6 2.7 5.6 5.5 5 4.4 3.9
2.3 33.2
0 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.4 1.9
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SCBs DFIs PCBs FCBs Total
Source: BB Annual Report (2002-2010)
• DFIs & SCBs NPL ratio is very high. During 1980s SCBs and DFIs served the
government purpose other than commercial purpose. They are reluctant to write-off
historical bad debts (BB,2007).
• Poor loan Appraisal, inadequate follow up and weak supervision also responsible for
high NPL in SCBs and DFIs.
• PCBs succeeded in reducing NPL ratio due to proper loan management. Supervision
of central Bank is also a part of this success.
• In FCBs, there is a slight increasing trend in NPL ratio after 2006.
• Industry NPL ratio shows a declining trend because of mature management,
supervisory control and regulations and sound management system.
10
NPL to total Loan Ratio of Some Developed and
Emerging Economy. Percent (%)
30
25
Percentage (%)
20
15
10
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
120
100
Percentage (%)
80
60
40
20
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SCBs DFIs PCBs FCBs Total
100
80
Percentage (% )
60
40
20
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3.5 50
3
2.5 0
P e r c e n ta g e (% )
P e r c e n ta g e (% )
2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-50
1.5
1
-100
0.5
0 -150
-0.52001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-1 -200
SCBs DFIs PCBs FCBs Total SCBs DFIs PCBs FCBs Total
4 80
3.5
60
3
P e rc e n ta g e (% )
P e r c e n ta g e (% )
2.5 40
2
1.5 20
1
0
0.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0 -20
-0.52001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-1 -40
Bangladesh USA France UK Japan Bangladesh USA France UK Japan
India Russia Malaysia China Brazil India Russia Malaysia China Brazil
50.00
40.00
Percentage (%)
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percent (%)
Bank June,
Types 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SCBs 7.3 8.4 6.8 2 2.1 6.9 14.9 17.6 17.9
DFIs 6.9 5.8 4.7 6.2 3.8 5.6 4.9 7.1 13.8
PCBs 8.5 9.8 8.8 5.1 5.6 6.4 4.7 5.3 5.2
FCBs 21.8 21.9 21.9 23.6 16.4 11.2 13.3 21.8 17.7
Total 8.7 9.9 8.7 5.3 5.1 6.9 8.4 9 8.8
Source: BB Annual Report (2002-2010).
SCBs are the call money market dominator for their excess liquidity for the last 3years.
DFIs are exempted to maintain 18% SLR but have to maintain 5% CRR of their demand
and time liabilities. For this reason, DFIs has excess liquidity.
Among PCBs, seven are operating as Islami banks. They have to maintain only 10%
SLR of their demand and time liabilities.
FCBs maintain high liquidity historically.
Industry experienced a fluctuation of excess liquidity over the period.
17
Liquid Asset of Developed and Emerging Economy.
Percent (%)
Liquidity Ratio
45.0
40.0
35.0
Percentage (%)
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total 49 49 49 48 48 48 48 48
Source: BB annual report (2002-2007).
Rating 1 or strong achiever banks were more upto 2005 but it decreased sharply after
the implementation of revised CAMELS rating system.
Rating 4 and 5 are brought under Early Warning Systems for close monitoring.
19
Correlation between CRAR and Interest income
(2002-2009).
0.700
PCBs, 0.622 Total, 0.646
0.600
0.500
0.400
FCBs, 0.367
0.300
0.200 SCBs, 0.219
Correlation
0.000
-0.100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-0.200
FCBs, -0.259
-0.300
-0.400 DFIs, -0.403
-0.500 Correlation
-0.600
-0.700 SCBs, -0.685
PCBs, -0.765
-0.800
Total, -0.863
-0.900
-1.000
If NPL ratio decreases then no interest suspense and increase interest income.
Theoretically there should have a negative correlation between NPL ratio and
interest income.
From the analysis, it has been found negative correlation among these two factors.
FCBs is insignificantly correlated as its NPL ratio increases during the last few years.
21
Correlation between Industry's Different Ratios and
GDP contribution by Financial intermediaries (2002-
2009).
1.50
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-0.50 Interest Spread, -
NPL to Loans, -0.87 Exp-Income Ratio, - 0.69 Liquidity, -0.75
-1.00 0.91
-1.50
22
Correlation between Industry's Different Ratios and
GDP contribution by Financial intermediaries (2002-
2009).
23
Conclusion and Recommendation
24
THANK YOU
25