&S

REPUBLIC OF KENYA
MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT &FORESTRY
KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, P. O. Box 30259, 00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya
Telephone: 254 (0) 20 3867880-7,
e-mail: director@meteo.go.ke, info@meteo.go.ke Website:http://www.meteo.go.ke

REF. NO. KMD/FCST/5-2019/MO/05 DATE: 30TH APRIL 2019

WEATHER REVIEW FOR APRIL AND THE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2019

1. HIGHLIGHTS
1.1 WEATHER REVIEW FOR APRIL 2019
The month of April 2019 was characterized by mainly sunny and dry weather conditions over most
parts of the country. However, in the last week of the month, light to moderate rainfall was
experienced over many areas of the country. The rainfall was significantly heavy over parts of the
highlands west of Rift Valley and the central highlands including Nairobi. Rainfall performance
analysis shows Kakamega, Kisumu and Kitale were the only stations that recorded near-normal
rainfall (between 75 and 125 percent of their April Long Term Means (LTMs)).

The March-April-May (MAM) 2019 seasonal rainfall analysis indicates that from 1stMarch to 30th
April 2019, the seasonal rainfall was highly depressed over most parts of the country.
This was as a result of warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over both the southern Atlantic and
Indian Oceans which created conducive environment for the formation of tropical storms that led to
formation of tropical cyclone (TC) Idai in the South Western Indian Ocean that kept the rain bearing
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in southern Tanzania.

The depressed rainfall worsened shortage of pasture and water for livestock in the Arid and Semi-Arid
Lands (ASALs) and also had an adverse effect on farming activities across the country. Several
counties, including Baringo and Turkana, that were expected to recover from the depressed OND
2018 rainfall, , continued to experience food shortages.

1.2 THE FORECAST FOR MAY 2019

The month of May marks the cessation of the “Long Rains” season over most parts of the country
except for the Western and the Coast regions that ordinarily receive rainfall throughout the month of
May spreading into June.
The outlook for May 2019 indicates that several parts of Western and Central Kenya are likely to
experience slightly enhanced rainfall. Most parts of North-western, North-eastern, South-eastern, the
Coastal strip and the southern Rift Valley (Kajiado, Magadi) are likely to receive near-average rainfall
with a slight tendency towards below-average.

2. DETAILED RAINFALL REVIEW FOR APRIL 2019

a) REVIEW OF RAINFALL PERFORMANCE DURING APRIL 2019

April marks the peak of the Long Rains (March-April-May) season. The month of April 2019 was,
however, characterized by mainly sunny and dry weather conditions over most parts of the
country.Light to moderate rainfall was mainly concentrated over very few parts of the country
especially over the Western region. Long dry spells,within the rain days, were dominant over the
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better part of the country during the first 20 days of the month. However, during the last week of April
starting from 21stto 30th,light to moderate rainfall was reported in most Meteorological stations across
the country.Heavy episodic rainfall was recorded in isolated areas on 22nd and 23rd April 2019. For
example, Kitale and Eldoret Airport stations recorded 45.1mm and 43.5 mm of rainfall respectively on
22nd April while Dagoretti corner, Meru and Wilson Airport stations reported 73.2mm, 57.7mm and
30.7 mm of rainfall on 23rd April 2019.
Kakamega Meteorological station recorded the highest monthly rainfall total of 252.3mm (96% of its
April LTM). This was followed by Kisii – 204.7mm (78%), Kisumu – 195.4mm (92%), Embu –
188.7mm (63%), Kitale – 142.2mm (77%), Thika – 135.8mm (63%), Dagoretti Corner – 132.0mm
(61%), Kericho – 125.1mm (51%), Meru – 107.7mm (43%) andEldoret (Kapsoya) – 101.1mm
(72%).The rest of the stations recorded less than 100mm in Aprilas shown in Figure 1

b) REVIEW OF MAM 2019 SEASONAL RAINFALL PERFORMANCE

Analysis of March-May 2019 seasonal rainfall so far indicates that meteorological stations in most
parts of the country recorded highly depressed rainfall that was way below normal. Kisumu and Kisii
were the only meteorological stations that recorded more than 50% of their MAM season long term
means (LTMs). The rest of the stations in the country recorded below 50%.
Cumulatively up to the end of April, the highest seasonal rainfall amount of 378.1mm (54% of the
seasonal LTM) was recorded at Kisii station. Kakamega, Kisumu, Embu, Kericho and Thika stations
recorded 315.8mm (46%), 297.8mm (56%), 211.1mm (37%), 206.5mm (30%) and 201.9mm (46%)
respectively. Kitale, Meru, Dagoretti Corner, Eldoret (Kapsoya) and Eldoret Airport stations recorded
between 100 and 200mm while the rest of the stations recorded less than 100mm as seen inFigure2.

3. SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN APRIL2019

In April 2019, warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were dominant over the South-
West Indian Ocean (Mascarene region) while slightly cooler to neutral SSTs occurred along the
Eastern African Coast. Cooler than average SSTs also occurred over the eastern Equatorial Indian
Ocean (adjacent to the Western Coast of Australia). The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained neutral
throughout the month.
These SST patterns were not conducive for rainfall over Kenya and more so the eastern sector of the
country. The Zonal (East-West) arm of the rain-bearing Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
remained over Tanzania for most of the period while the Meridional (North-South) arm was mainly
over Congo and Ugandaoccasionally shifting to Western Kenya.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) (an eastward spread of large regions of enhanced and
suppressed tropical rainfall, mainly observed over the Indian and Pacific Ocean) was in the second
phase during the third dekad of April. This 2nd phase of the MJO is normally conducive for rainfall in
our country and hence the good rainfall received during this period.The MJO coupled with the
existence of the Tropical Cyclone“Kenneth” to the north of Madagascar also led to the eastward shift
of the Congo airmassthat led to heavy rainfall over most parts of western and central Kenya.

4. EXPERIENCED IMPACTS
 The good rainfall that was recorded over most parts of the country during the last 10 days
of April was quite a relief following the long dry spell that led to water shortage and lack of
pastures over most parts of the country, especially in the ASALs.
 Some rivers (Especially the Mara River and several streams across the country) that had
almost dried up experienced a slight improvement in terms of water flows after good

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 rainfall was experienced in the catchment areas towards the end of April.
 Unfortunately, the heavy rains received towards the end of April wreaked havoc in
Kajiado, Murang’a and Nairobi counties reported disastrous events, where people lost their
lives and property as a result of flash floods and heavy rains leading to landslides in the
sloppy areas of Aberdares highlands in Murang’a.
 Transport along the busy Narok-Mai Mahiu road was paralysed at Suswa following a heavy
down-pour in the hilly areas leading to deposition of deep sediments on the roads.
 There was also traffic snarl-up in Nairobi as a result of heavy rains.

5. MAY 2019 FORECAST

The rainfall forecast for May 2019 is based on regression of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on Kenya
historical rainfall data and the expected evolution of global SST patterns as well as upper air
circulations. The forecast indicates that several parts of Western, Central Rift Valley and Central
Kenya are likely to experience near average rainfall with a tendency to above average (slightly
enhanced rainfall). Several parts of Northern and Southern Rift Valley,South-eastern, Northeastern as
well as the Coast region are likely to receive near average rainfall tending to below average (slightly
depressed rainfall).The specific outlooks for individual areas are as follows:

Most CountiesinWestern Kenya (Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Kisii,
Migori, Nyamira etc); a few counties in the Rift Valley region (Kericho, Nandi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin
Gishu, Baringo, Nakuru),Central Counties (Nyandarua, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kiambu, Kirinyaga,
Embu, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi) andNairobi Countyare likely to receive near-normal rainfall tending to
above normal (slightly enhanced rainfall) in May;
Counties in the Coastal region(Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, Tana River, Taita-Taveta);Counties
in Northern& Southern Rift Valley (Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado); Counties in Northern
and North-eastern Kenya(Marsabit, Isiolo,Garissa, Wajir, Mandera) andCounties in South-
eastern Kenya(Kitui, Machakos, Makueni), are likely to receive near-normal rainfall tending to
below normal (slightly depressed rainfall) in May as depicted in Figure 3.

6. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF MAY RAINFALL.

In view of the expected rainfall outlook inthe month of May 2019, there will be variably significant
impacts as listed below:
 Improved water availability and pasture conditions.This will go a long way to slightly alleviate
the current water and pastures stress especially in the pastoral areas of the country.
 There are good prospects for crop performance especially in the agriculturally high potential
areas such Kitale, Eldoret, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii and Nandi Hills areas, where near-
average to above-average rainfall is forecasted and also expected to continue into June-July-
August period.
 Localized flooding is probable in parts of Western Kenya as a result of episodic heavy rainfall
that is likely to occur in the region.
 Cases of lightning strikes are also probable in Western Kenya. Contingency measures should
still be put in place to avoid loss of lives and destruction of property.
 The water levels in the Seven-Forks and Turkwel hydro-electric power generation dams are
expected to improve following the expected near-average rainfall in their catchment areas.

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 7. EXPECTED CESSATION OF THE (MAM 2019) “LONG RAINS” SEASON
 Western Kenya, parts of Central Rift Valley (Nakuru, Nyahururu) and the Coastal strip are
expected to continue receiving rainfall into June.
 The Central regions including Nairobi are likely to experience cessation of the “Long Rains”
during the third to fourth week of May 2019.
 In the southern parts of Central Rift Valley (Narok, Kajiado, Magadi), Northwestern,
Northeastern and Southeastern parts of the country, the cessation is likely to occur during the
second to third week of May.

NB: This forecast should be used in conjunction with regular updates as well as the daily (24-hr)
forecasts issued by this Department.

STELLA AURA, MBS

DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES & PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE

OF KENYA WITH THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO)

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FIGURE 1: RAINFALL FORECAST FOR MAY 2019