Credit Card Predictive Model

Instructions
The President of the bank asks you to design and implement a predictive model to determine wh
Your new goal is to develop a binary classification process for “approve” or “reject” designed to m
Step-By-Step Assignment Instructionsless
Assignment Details:
Assume you have available to you the six standardized data inputs only (no Eggertopia scores). D
You may adapt your own previous binary classification model for default, the example binary cla
You may also use the linear regression model for profitability, or create a new model for this pur
No methods outside the scope of what has already been taught in this course need to be, or sho
Note an important change in the bank’s assumptions:
The bank has learned that not all defaulters are unprofitable and not all non-defaulters are profi
Instead, the new relevant profitability metrics assumptions the bank gives you to use are:
The proportion of applicants that are unprofitable (again 25%, but a different 25%), average loss
A “perfect” model that excluded all unprofitable and included all profitable customers would hav
Directions:
You will submit a summary of your model and its performance to the Bank President. The summ
What is your predictive model?

a. Describe the arithmetic clearly so that another learner could implement your model on new s
b. Give an example of the score you would assign the following applicant, whether they would b
Age: -0.06
Years at employer: 0.23
Years at address: -0.58
Income: -0.38
Credit card debt: 0.14
Auto debt: -0.06
2. What would the bank’s average profit per applicant be (net profits divided by 200) when using
3. What is the incremental financial value per applicant of your model over no model on the Trai
4. Evaluate your model on the Test Set data. How confident are you that your model does not ov
a. Choose between three broad degrees of confidence: “very” “somewhat” or “not at all.” (Note
b. Explain the evidence your degree of confidence is based upon.

How to submit your assignmetless
Submitting your assignment:
Once you understand the instructions, you will click on the "My Submission" tab.
Make sure to include a title for your assignment

This assignment requires you to design your model on the training set, and compare those resul
Make sure you click on the "Preview" button at the bottom of the page so you can see your resp
Once you are satisfied with your submission, click on the blue button "Submit for review" which
Reviewing Others:
Once you submit your assignment, you can begin reviewing other submissions. You cannot get fu
model to determine which future applicants should be approved for a credit card and which rejected.
r “reject” designed to maximize total bank profits. (Put another way, you want to maximize average profits
o Eggertopia scores). Design your model on the Training Set only.

he example binary classification model for default given in the Learning Points for quiz 1 and 2,
new model for this purpose.
urse need to be, or should be, used.
on-defaulters are profitable. Therefore you should no longer use the bank’s “old” estimates for rate of defa
you to use are:
ent 25%), average losses per unprofitable customer (-$4,900), average profits per profitable customer ($4,
e customers would have an estimated profitability per applicant of ($4,000)*.75 = $3,000
k President. The summary will address the following questions:
t your model on new standardized input data if they wished.
whether they would be approved or rejected for a credit card and why.
ed by 200) when using your predictive model on the Training Set?

r no model on the Training Set?
our model does not over-fit the Training Set data?
” or “not at all.” (Note that “not at all” is still an acceptable answer if you give persuasive reasons for why
d compare those results to the test set. You will be asked to provide written, specific results from your des
you can see your responses and make sure all required elements are present. If additional changes are ne
mit for review" which is found at the bottom of the page.
ions. You cannot get full credit if you do not complete three evaluations. Feel free to complete more to he
d which rejected.
aximize average profits per applicant, including in the total number of applicants those that are rejected).
uiz 1 and 2,
timates for rate of default (25%), average losses per defaulter (-$5,000) average profits per non-defaulter (
ofitable customer ($4,000), and average profits per applicant when using no model ($1,775).
asive reasons for why you chose this answer).
c results from your design model. You can type your answers directly in the space provided under the ques
ditional changes are necessary, you can go back and edit your submission.
o complete more to help peers who are waiting.

ose that are rejected).
fits per non-defaulter ($2,500), and average profits per applicant when using no model ($625).
($1,775).
ovided under the question prompt, or you can also compose your answers using a text editor and can the
ext editor and can then copy and paste it into the space provided.
Training Set of First 200 Applicants
Raw Data
Unique Applicant ID Age Years at Employer
1 32.53 9.39
2 34.58 11.97
3 37.70 12.46
4 28.68 1.39
5 32.61 7.49
6 39.32 4.58
7 46.85 16.90
8 42.00 15.93
9 46.78 11.96
10 27.27 9.47
11 35.27 1.04
12 25.97 4.21
13 32.34 7.40
14 48.82 22.37
15 51.81 26.63
16 31.32 7.84
17 27.30 7.70
18 25.58 2.75
19 31.49 13.63
20 43.70 2.58
21 31.18 3.69
22 37.35 20.99
23 41.97 14.45
24 46.09 25.78
25 49.45 4.57
26 25.16 9.31
27 39.68 4.29
28 30.80 0.58
29 39.61 1.19
30 32.61 3.64
31 39.42 2.35
32 49.11 11.67
33 35.31 8.83
34 27.33 7.86
35 42.02 12.29
36 42.83 0.91
37 28.50 5.18
38 49.65 15.12
39 26.52 0.75
40 27.90 11.44
41 47.18 24.53
42 30.38 11.80
43 29.91 6.77
44 35.48 13.10
45 39.57 23.90
46 41.08 14.51
47 32.16 7.37
48 29.26 4.33
49 40.55 6.26
50 23.68 3.40
51 43.64 18.97
52 29.42 4.61
53 23.31 0.97
54 34.04 8.71
55 31.65 9.13
56 28.93 6.12
57 44.24 20.05
58 22.19 0.52
59 21.35 5.53
60 37.31 13.80
61 28.99 0.63
62 37.50 5.33
63 25.42 1.34
64 30.48 0.35
65 38.23 7.51
66 54.82 0.64
67 32.72 15.56
68 30.01 4.04
69 28.60 9.84
70 26.96 0.17
71 46.96 1.79
72 30.24 1.58
73 43.03 4.46
74 27.99 6.90
75 33.23 5.86
76 49.15 17.12
77 27.77 1.32
78 49.49 8.74
79 31.02 9.66
80 42.20 6.58
81 45.45 31.65
82 30.83 0.72
83 26.99 3.32
84 23.94 0.68
85 41.79 10.79
86 38.55 16.92
87 31.48 11.60
88 24.08 0.14
89 31.50 8.33
90 46.28 7.97
91 45.66 18.22
92 28.65 11.32
93 33.70 5.46
94 29.92 0.28
95 44.78 13.29
96 32.09 7.44
97 23.99 4.52
98 43.68 18.12
99 36.76 10.03
100 53.97 31.37
101 35.83 6.40
102 31.61 9.64
103 27.76 7.44
104 46.29 14.53
105 51.03 10.98
106 28.50 6.02
107 35.93 18.74
108 25.80 3.63
109 46.60 11.46
110 29.12 8.59
111 30.14 13.76
112 20.43 3.01
113 33.77 10.62
114 22.86 3.54
115 24.37 7.77
116 24.13 2.50
117 44.34 2.60
118 32.68 15.82
119 36.73 10.92
120 35.60 13.64
121 37.49 15.02
122 33.01 8.80
123 29.04 10.76
124 47.12 22.95
125 37.01 3.84
126 35.17 15.51
127 51.10 6.02
128 55.72 7.52
129 41.71 10.03
130 23.99 0.31
131 43.14 5.89
132 25.51 0.80
133 33.71 12.70
134 36.53 10.59
135 42.73 11.33
136 21.39 0.33
137 27.06 9.28
138 25.72 4.59
139 42.51 13.04
140 26.20 2.82
141 28.99 1.60
142 34.84 4.36
143 32.13 0.67
144 40.25 13.84
145 40.22 24.21
146 23.44 4.83
147 33.27 5.47
148 49.85 5.39
149 29.01 4.91
150 25.96 5.30
151 24.39 4.49
152 27.09 5.49
153 31.04 10.96
154 31.49 2.02
155 33.93 4.60
156 26.49 0.45
157 33.78 7.63
158 33.10 11.12
159 23.85 0.58
160 33.26 7.61
161 47.08 29.57
162 20.43 0.62
163 31.65 9.79
164 36.36 14.10
165 33.94 11.44
166 35.93 5.01
167 26.25 7.23
168 30.31 2.04
169 55.58 11.74
170 37.30 21.79
171 32.37 3.40
172 20.19 0.32
173 26.84 12.79
174 38.12 18.29
175 33.16 13.45
176 28.52 1.33
177 26.60 9.73
178 36.20 6.33
179 28.88 0.99
180 25.23 1.64
181 27.86 2.75
182 35.96 4.96
183 33.68 15.80
184 29.35 0.20
185 38.35 19.20
186 36.05 4.12
187 25.82 0.45
188 32.23 8.16
189 31.07 0.49
190 38.08 17.83
191 51.75 15.31
192 40.01 20.18
193 28.27 6.85
194 38.66 0.61
195 44.13 0.04
196 42.20 13.25
197 24.60 7.82
198 24.97 2.37
199 38.96 16.69
200 45.87 16.41
mean 34.67 8.61
standard deviation 8.20 6.77

Years at Address Income Credit Card Debt Automobile Debt
0.30 $37,844 -$3,247 -$4,795
1.49 $65,765 -$15,598 -$17,632
0.09 $61,002 -$11,402 -$7,910
1.84 $19,953 -$1,233 -$2,408
0.23 $24,970 -$1,136 -$397
2.03 $222,106 -$16,353 -$55,419
1.00 $74,283 -$4,468 -$8,517
2.80 $117,987 -$5,313 -$1,797
0.67 $55,248 -$7,435 -$18,233
0.48 $33,040 -$1,833 -$3,632
0.78 $20,060 -$3,899 -$2,634
0.60 $35,387 -$191 -$1,661
2.90 $35,108 -$1,316 -$1,951
0.04 $116,698 -$8,255 -$9,030
0.54 $165,132 -$1,754 -$34,033
0.35 $41,565 -$341 -$11,030
0.26 $35,831 -$287 -$1,158
0.46 $17,830 -$2,145 -$6,228
1.04 $67,806 -$7,510 -$3,132
0.28 $20,192 -$323 -$830
0.02 $12,517 $34 -$642
2.02 $92,609 -$10,895 -$18,365
1.99 $55,837 -$1,443 -$3,774
0.30 $63,307 -$1,931 -$21,382
0.67 $29,489 -$1,202 -$3,453
0.36 $27,376 -$1,144 -$4,042
1.74 $73,553 -$1,711 -$1,285
1.82 $19,313 $30 -$496
0.02 $20,357 -$600 -$3,112
0.72 $18,431 -$448 -$3,283
1.15 $12,508 -$3,783 -$3,376
1.17 $77,851 -$1,954 -$10,429
1.20 $28,598 -$888 $1,220
0.06 $21,613 -$27 -$1,008
0.73 $84,270 -$3,020 -$19,178
1.05 $64,389 -$432 -$7,002
0.28 $16,711 -$1,234 $1,247
0.80 $80,738 -$5,168 -$2,204
1.53 $13,790 -$5,586 -$7,900
0.26 $35,216 -$3,093 -$3,920
0.98 $117,904 -$1,368 -$10,138
0.32 $32,065 -$357 -$219
1.26 $19,060 -$2,338 -$4,486
3.70 $81,993 -$736 $493
0.37 $70,302 -$6,211 -$21,487
0.49 $35,722 -$2,569 -$4,369
1.26 $42,545 -$5,967 -$19,499
1.14 $38,367 -$2,460 -$2,224
1.45 $191,461 -$6,309 -$23,389
0.52 $50,445 -$500 -$9,582
0.90 $451,320 -$32,050 -$24,528
0.26 $24,542 -$126 -$2,427
1.17 $24,528 -$758 -$4,273
0.14 $36,140 -$1,247 -$5,135
0.77 $46,320 -$1,867 -$1,458
0.07 $46,794 -$2,353 -$2,643
0.25 $112,352 -$6,493 -$24,003
0.14 $17,677 -$320 -$1,198
0.95 $14,331 -$1,811 -$4,768
0.43 $71,326 -$2,051 -$2,719
0.44 $18,098 -$184 $1,747
1.17 $18,687 -$352 -$2,286
0.99 $28,273 -$3,513 -$8,887
1.06 $15,263 -$1,604 -$5,876
0.46 $39,352 -$415 -$6,147
1.25 $27,061 -$5,517 -$10,775
0.06 $74,098 -$7,920 -$8,218
0.57 $17,915 -$498 -$307
0.56 $23,058 -$1,417 -$3,335
0.51 $21,170 -$2,840 -$3,925
0.97 $26,287 -$1,481 -$446
1.00 $15,146 -$558 $34
0.37 $31,945 -$846 -$2,328
0.68 $29,452 -$822 -$1,067
0.60 $20,504 -$1,259 -$1,560
0.42 $112,965 -$6,629 -$21,660
0.45 $18,508 -$2,136 -$2,307
0.98 $16,478 -$173 $707
0.29 $52,304 -$5,215 -$17,394
0.60 $34,375 -$313 -$2,349
0.62 $249,836 -$18,532 -$17,228
0.19 $25,223 -$1,888 -$3,180
0.12 $16,498 -$1,539 -$2,102
0.44 $19,048 -$581 -$3,148
1.01 $35,485 -$2,862 -$4,971
0.63 $95,949 -$2,875 -$591
0.46 $62,996 -$11,126 -$13,652
2.12 $18,529 -$172 -$2,671
0.28 $39,169 -$1,980 -$4,428
0.55 $36,914 -$1,950 -$687
1.16 $83,778 -$1,645 -$10,598
0.12 $26,330 -$2,584 -$2,079
0.33 $41,565 -$5,273 -$8,862
0.34 $25,886 -$2,660 -$11,608
0.54 $61,042 -$9,940 -$10,872
1.84 $25,162 -$648 -$1,691
0.50 $11,522 -$201 -$1,622
0.85 $46,788 -$944 -$1,548
0.75 $46,221 -$1,027 -$12,245
0.45 $250,323 -$8,505 -$30,319
0.28 $68,075 -$4,241 -$3,025
0.47 $49,859 -$6,374 -$4,487
2.13 $27,254 -$1,084 -$1,014
1.66 $69,674 -$4,305 -$4,915
2.21 $35,666 -$4,834 -$1,983
1.13 $29,038 -$4,224 -$6,676
0.41 $58,226 -$5,095 -$11,737
0.18 $19,828 -$2,952 -$4,217
0.54 $52,869 -$5,046 -$14,190
1.01 $35,060 -$1,460 -$4,421
1.30 $58,770 -$6,476 -$9,729
0.80 $24,265 -$2,807 -$2,101
1.46 $48,850 -$702 -$66
1.67 $15,752 -$39 -$3,395
0.09 $20,414 -$705 -$1,789
0.89 $24,754 -$2,503 -$3,715
0.19 $33,714 -$2,380 -$1,755
0.40 $57,887 -$1,614 -$2,516
0.79 $73,159 -$1,337 -$3,992
1.42 $53,531 -$2,849 -$6,309
0.94 $40,241 -$8,961 -$9,643
0.56 $48,644 -$777 -$7,196
0.01 $43,359 -$7,606 -$7,822
1.01 $97,958 -$1,737 -$3,753
0.01 $25,487 -$2,465 -$5,022
0.46 $47,201 -$14,557 -$22,228
0.48 $28,924 -$199 -$5,224
0.34 $63,054 -$3,933 -$7,379
1.47 $72,713 -$5,636 -$5,688
1.10 $23,258 -$1,473 -$4,459
0.27 $54,688 -$897 -$13,898
1.62 $26,907 -$1,129 -$1,551
0.52 $24,672 -$2,294 -$7,104
1.92 $30,474 -$2,609 -$2,693
1.44 $31,997 -$773 -$3,863
1.01 $25,384 -$1,210 -$3,349
0.71 $43,993 -$5,813 -$10,241
0.93 $20,669 -$664 -$1,563
0.20 $35,459 -$3,855 -$4,736
1.07 $25,410 -$2,235 -$4,641
0.90 $14,720 -$392 $718
0.60 $39,648 -$1,471 -$2,959
0.70 $33,664 -$1,579 -$1,008
0.09 $65,386 -$1,808 -$6,358
1.30 $77,330 -$13,082 -$11,505
0.60 $22,267 -$646 -$3,964
1.10 $44,970 -$3,555 -$10,735
1.79 $80,182 -$13,905 -$13,035
1.02 $35,784 -$1,574 -$4,677
0.03 $76,293 -$4,397 -$6,020
0.85 $23,507 -$210 -$1,696
0.08 $12,590 -$755 -$1,582
1.00 $28,164 -$351 -$2,871
0.72 $22,928 -$4,104 -$2,220
0.80 $16,859 -$1,908 -$2,807
0.17 $16,585 -$3,910 -$5,587
0.31 $31,945 -$1,572 -$2,553
0.18 $27,090 -$1,535 -$4,258
0.03 $33,501 -$4,331 -$8,748
0.11 $24,083 -$1,325 -$924
1.84 $149,418 -$7,973 -$13,568
0.31 $16,942 -$412 -$4,704
0.20 $29,747 -$396 -$194
1.41 $53,737 -$1,597 -$3,616
0.81 $31,123 -$4,247 -$2,142
0.26 $20,367 -$291 -$3,493
1.40 $15,723 -$1,075 -$1,288
0.80 $28,720 -$555 -$2,600
0.20 $57,901 -$9,563 -$6,763
0.62 $48,117 -$5,082 -$2,942
2.02 $24,386 -$3,680 -$2,724
0.65 $17,109 -$4,164 -$6,581
0.33 $95,717 -$5,808 -$6,871
0.89 $45,262 -$718 -$754
0.22 $25,895 -$1,028 -$1,074
0.71 $30,968 -$3,427 -$4,260
0.12 $31,196 -$859 -$4,227
0.65 $35,808 -$3,371 -$10,032
0.81 $16,540 -$523 -$2,422
0.85 $14,781 -$457 -$2,989
0.56 $27,109 -$826 -$5,903
0.45 $19,912 -$1,345 -$1,489
1.87 $59,362 -$3,681 -$5,972
0.97 $22,488 -$677 -$5,391
2.09 $73,367 -$7,698 -$32,858
0.04 $17,290 -$910 -$3,460
0.34 $34,054 -$4,388 -$5,065
0.49 $25,633 -$486 -$453
0.04 $16,796 -$404 $125
0.22 $67,277 -$10,497 -$4,908
0.40 $46,265 -$2,569 -$2,339
1.64 $144,700 -$6,447 -$29,135
0.39 $52,054 -$2,459 -$13,117
0.13 $30,129 -$1,210 -$2,707
0.76 $25,094 -$293 -$2,250
0.58 $58,644 -$5,165 -$11,395
1.93 $17,453 -$984 -$1,432
0.31 $27,214 -$1,446 -$2,101
0.69 $115,211 -$3,206 -$25,827
0.01 $123,171 -$1,195 -$6,470
0.78 48439.96 -3202.11 -6378.07
0.62 47862.35 3892.03 7472.44

Standardized Data
Outcomes: Default = 1 Unique Applicant ID Age
0 1 -0.26
1 2 -0.01
1 3 0.37
0 4 -0.73
0 5 -0.25
1 6 0.57
0 7 1.48
0 8 0.89
0 9 1.48
0 10 -0.90
1 11 0.07
0 12 -1.06
1 13 -0.28
0 14 1.73
0 15 2.09
0 16 -0.41
0 17 -0.90
1 18 -1.11
0 19 -0.39
0 20 1.10
0 21 -0.43
0 22 0.33
0 23 0.89
0 24 1.39
1 25 1.80
0 26 -1.16
0 27 0.61
0 28 -0.47
0 29 0.60
0 30 -0.25
1 31 0.58
0 32 1.76
0 33 0.08
0 34 -0.89
0 35 0.90
0 36 1.00
0 37 -0.75
0 38 1.83
1 39 -0.99
0 40 -0.82
0 41 1.53
0 42 -0.52
0 43 -0.58
0 44 0.10
0 45 0.60
0 46 0.78
1 47 -0.31
1 48 -0.66
0 49 0.72
1 50 -1.34
1 51 1.09
0 52 -0.64
1 53 -1.38
0 54 -0.08
0 55 -0.37
0 56 -0.70
0 57 1.17
0 58 -1.52
0 59 -1.62
0 60 0.32
0 61 -0.69
0 62 0.34
1 63 -1.13
1 64 -0.51
0 65 0.43
1 66 2.46
0 67 -0.24
0 68 -0.57
0 69 -0.74
1 70 -0.94
0 71 1.50
0 72 -0.54
1 73 1.02
1 74 -0.81
0 75 -0.18
0 76 1.77
0 77 -0.84
0 78 1.81
0 79 -0.44
0 80 0.92
0 81 1.31
0 82 -0.47
1 83 -0.94
1 84 -1.31
0 85 0.87
0 86 0.47
0 87 -0.39
0 88 -1.29
0 89 -0.39
0 90 1.42
0 91 1.34
0 92 -0.73
0 93 -0.12
0 94 -0.58
1 95 1.23
0 96 -0.31
0 97 -1.30
0 98 1.10
0 99 0.25
0 100 2.35
0 101 0.14
1 102 -0.37
0 103 -0.84
1 104 1.42
0 105 2.00
1 106 -0.75
0 107 0.15
1 108 -1.08
1 109 1.46
0 110 -0.68
0 111 -0.55
0 112 -1.74
0 113 -0.11
1 114 -1.44
0 115 -1.26
1 116 -1.28
0 117 1.18
0 118 -0.24
0 119 0.25
0 120 0.11
1 121 0.34
0 122 -0.20
0 123 -0.69
0 124 1.52
0 125 0.29
1 126 0.06
0 127 2.00
0 128 2.57
0 129 0.86
1 130 -1.30
1 131 1.03
0 132 -1.12
0 133 -0.12
0 134 0.23
0 135 0.98
1 136 -1.62
1 137 -0.93
0 138 -1.09
0 139 0.96
1 140 -1.03
1 141 -0.69
0 142 0.02
0 143 -0.31
0 144 0.68
0 145 0.68
0 146 -1.37
1 147 -0.17
1 148 1.85
0 149 -0.69
0 150 -1.06
0 151 -1.25
0 152 -0.92
0 153 -0.44
0 154 -0.39
0 155 -0.09
1 156 -1.00
0 157 -0.11
1 158 -0.19
0 159 -1.32
0 160 -0.17
0 161 1.51
1 162 -1.73
0 163 -0.37
0 164 0.21
0 165 -0.09
0 166 0.15
1 167 -1.03
0 168 -0.53
0 169 2.55
0 170 0.32
0 171 -0.28
1 172 -1.76
0 173 -0.95
0 174 0.42
0 175 -0.18
0 176 -0.75
0 177 -0.98
0 178 0.19
1 179 -0.71
1 180 -1.15
0 181 -0.83
0 182 0.16
0 183 -0.12
0 184 -0.65
0 185 0.45
0 186 0.17
1 187 -1.08
0 188 -0.30
1 189 -0.44
0 190 0.42
0 191 2.08
0 192 0.65
0 193 -0.78
1 194 0.49
0 195 1.15
0 196 0.92
0 197 -1.23
0 198 -1.18
0 199 0.52
0 200 1.37
mean 0.00
standard deviation 1.00

Years at Employer Years at Address Income Credit Card Debt
0.11 -0.78 -0.22 -0.01
0.50 1.14 0.36 -3.18
0.57 -1.12 0.26 -2.11
-1.07 1.71 -0.60 0.51
-0.17 -0.88 -0.49 0.53
-0.60 2.02 3.63 -3.38
1.22 0.35 0.54 -0.33
1.08 3.27 1.45 -0.54
0.49 -0.18 0.14 -1.09
0.13 -0.49 -0.32 0.35
-1.12 -0.01 -0.59 -0.18
-0.65 -0.28 -0.27 0.77
-0.18 3.43 -0.28 0.48
2.03 -1.19 1.43 -1.30
2.66 -0.38 2.44 0.37
-0.11 -0.69 -0.14 0.74
-0.13 -0.84 -0.26 0.75
-0.87 -0.51 -0.64 0.27
0.74 0.42 0.40 -1.11
-0.89 -0.80 -0.59 0.74
-0.73 -1.22 -0.75 0.83
1.83 2.00 0.92 -1.98
0.86 1.95 0.15 0.45
2.53 -0.77 0.31 0.33
-0.60 -0.18 -0.40 0.51
0.10 -0.68 -0.44 0.53
-0.64 1.56 0.52 0.38
-1.19 1.68 -0.61 0.83
-1.10 -1.22 -0.59 0.67
-0.74 -0.10 -0.63 0.71
-0.92 0.61 -0.75 -0.15
0.45 0.64 0.61 0.32
0.03 0.67 -0.41 0.59
-0.11 -1.17 -0.56 0.82
0.54 -0.09 0.75 0.05
-1.14 0.44 0.33 0.71
-0.51 -0.80 -0.66 0.51
0.96 0.03 0.67 -0.51
-1.16 1.22 -0.72 -0.61
0.42 -0.84 -0.28 0.03
2.35 0.33 1.45 0.47
0.47 -0.74 -0.34 0.73
-0.27 0.77 -0.61 0.22
0.66 4.71 0.70 0.63
2.26 -0.66 0.46 -0.77
0.87 -0.47 -0.27 0.16
-0.18 0.78 -0.12 -0.71
-0.63 0.58 -0.21 0.19
-0.35 1.08 2.99 -0.80
-0.77 -0.42 0.04 0.69
1.53 0.20 8.42 -7.41
-0.59 -0.84 -0.50 0.79
-1.13 0.64 -0.50 0.63
0.01 -1.04 -0.26 0.50
0.08 -0.01 -0.04 0.34
-0.37 -1.15 -0.03 0.22
1.69 -0.86 1.34 -0.85
-1.19 -1.03 -0.64 0.74
-0.46 0.27 -0.71 0.36
0.77 -0.57 0.48 0.30
-1.18 -0.55 -0.63 0.78
-0.49 0.64 -0.62 0.73
-1.07 0.33 -0.42 -0.08
-1.22 0.45 -0.69 0.41
-0.16 -0.52 -0.19 0.72
-1.18 0.75 -0.45 -0.59
1.02 -1.17 0.54 -1.21
-0.67 -0.34 -0.64 0.69
0.18 -0.35 -0.53 0.46
-1.25 -0.44 -0.57 0.09
-1.01 0.30 -0.46 0.44
-1.04 0.35 -0.70 0.68
-0.61 -0.66 -0.34 0.61
-0.25 -0.16 -0.40 0.61
-0.41 -0.29 -0.58 0.50
1.26 -0.58 1.35 -0.88
-1.08 -0.53 -0.63 0.27
0.02 0.33 -0.67 0.78
0.16 -0.79 0.08 -0.52
-0.30 -0.29 -0.29 0.74
3.40 -0.25 4.21 -3.94
-1.17 -0.95 -0.49 0.34
-0.78 -1.06 -0.67 0.43
-1.17 -0.55 -0.61 0.67
0.32 0.38 -0.27 0.09
1.23 -0.24 0.99 0.08
0.44 -0.52 0.30 -2.04
-1.25 2.17 -0.62 0.78
-0.04 -0.81 -0.19 0.31
-0.10 -0.37 -0.24 0.32
1.42 0.62 0.74 0.40
0.40 -1.07 -0.46 0.16
-0.47 -0.73 -0.14 -0.53
-1.23 -0.71 -0.47 0.14
0.69 -0.39 0.26 -1.73
-0.17 1.71 -0.49 0.66
-0.60 -0.45 -0.77 0.77
1.40 0.11 -0.03 0.58
0.21 -0.06 -0.05 0.56
3.36 -0.53 4.22 -1.36
-0.33 -0.81 0.41 -0.27
0.15 -0.50 0.03 -0.82
-0.17 2.19 -0.44 0.54
0.87 1.43 0.44 -0.28
0.35 2.31 -0.27 -0.42
-0.38 0.56 -0.41 -0.26
1.49 -0.59 0.20 -0.49
-0.74 -0.96 -0.60 0.06
0.42 -0.39 0.09 -0.47
0.00 0.37 -0.28 0.45
0.76 0.84 0.22 -0.84
-0.83 0.04 -0.51 0.10
0.30 1.11 0.01 0.64
-0.75 1.44 -0.68 0.81
-0.13 -1.11 -0.59 0.64
-0.90 0.19 -0.49 0.18
-0.89 -0.95 -0.31 0.21
1.06 -0.61 0.20 0.41
0.34 0.02 0.52 0.48
0.74 1.04 0.11 0.09
0.95 0.25 -0.17 -1.48
0.03 -0.35 0.00 0.62
0.32 -1.25 -0.11 -1.13
2.12 0.37 1.03 0.38
-0.70 -1.24 -0.48 0.19
1.02 -0.51 -0.03 -2.92
-0.38 -0.48 -0.41 0.77
-0.16 -0.72 0.31 -0.19
0.21 1.12 0.51 -0.63
-1.23 0.52 -0.53 0.44
-0.40 -0.82 0.13 0.59
-1.15 1.36 -0.45 0.53
0.60 -0.42 -0.50 0.23
0.29 1.84 -0.38 0.15
0.40 1.07 -0.34 0.62
-1.22 0.38 -0.48 0.51
0.10 -0.12 -0.09 -0.67
-0.59 0.25 -0.58 0.65
0.65 -0.94 -0.27 -0.17
-0.85 0.47 -0.48 0.25
-1.04 0.20 -0.70 0.72
-0.63 -0.28 -0.18 0.44
-1.17 -0.13 -0.31 0.42
0.77 -1.11 0.35 0.36
2.30 0.83 0.60 -2.54
-0.56 -0.29 -0.55 0.66
-0.46 0.52 -0.07 -0.09
-0.48 1.63 0.66 -2.75
-0.55 0.38 -0.26 0.42
-0.49 -1.21 0.58 -0.31
-0.61 0.12 -0.52 0.77
-0.46 -1.14 -0.75 0.63
0.35 0.35 -0.42 0.73
-0.97 -0.09 -0.53 -0.23
-0.59 0.04 -0.66 0.33
-1.21 -0.98 -0.67 -0.18
-0.15 -0.76 -0.34 0.42
0.37 -0.96 -0.45 0.43
-1.19 -1.21 -0.31 -0.29
-0.15 -1.08 -0.51 0.48
3.09 1.72 2.11 -1.23
-1.18 -0.75 -0.66 0.72
0.17 -0.94 -0.39 0.72
0.81 1.02 0.11 0.41
0.42 0.05 -0.36 -0.27
-0.53 -0.84 -0.59 0.75
-0.20 1.01 -0.68 0.55
-0.97 0.03 -0.41 0.68
0.46 -0.94 0.20 -1.63
1.95 -0.26 -0.01 -0.48
-0.77 2.01 -0.50 -0.12
-1.23 -0.21 -0.65 -0.25
0.62 -0.72 0.99 -0.67
1.43 0.18 -0.07 0.64
0.71 -0.90 -0.47 0.56
-1.08 -0.11 -0.37 -0.06
0.17 -1.07 -0.36 0.60
-0.34 -0.21 -0.26 -0.04
-1.13 0.05 -0.67 0.69
-1.03 0.12 -0.70 0.71
-0.87 -0.36 -0.45 0.61
-0.54 -0.54 -0.60 0.48
1.06 1.75 0.23 -0.12
-1.24 0.31 -0.54 0.65
1.56 2.12 0.52 -1.16
-0.66 -1.19 -0.65 0.59
-1.21 -0.71 -0.30 -0.30
-0.07 -0.46 -0.48 0.70
-1.20 -1.20 -0.66 0.72
1.36 -0.91 0.39 -1.87
0.99 -0.62 -0.05 0.16
1.71 1.38 2.01 -0.83
-0.26 -0.63 0.08 0.19
-1.18 -1.05 -0.38 0.51
-1.27 -0.03 -0.49 0.75
0.68 -0.32 0.21 -0.50
-0.12 1.86 -0.65 0.57
-0.92 -0.76 -0.44 0.45
1.19 -0.14 1.40 0.00
1.15 -1.24 1.56 0.52
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Automobile Debt Outcomes: Default = 1
0.21 0
-1.51 1
-0.21 1
0.53 0
0.80 0
-6.56 1
-0.29 0
0.61 0
-1.59 0
0.37 0
0.50 1
0.63 0
0.59 1
-0.35 0
-3.70 0
-0.62 0
0.70 0
0.02 1
0.43 0
0.74 0
0.77 0
-1.60 0
0.35 0
-2.01 0
0.39 1
0.31 0
0.68 0
0.79 0
0.44 0
0.41 0
0.40 1
-0.54 0
1.02 0
0.72 0
-1.71 0
-0.08 0
1.02 0
0.56 0
-0.20 1
0.33 0
-0.50 0
0.82 0
0.25 0
0.92 0
-2.02 0
0.27 0
-1.76 1
0.56 1
-2.28 0
-0.43 1
-2.43 1
0.53 0
0.28 1
0.17 0
0.66 0
0.50 0
-2.36 0
0.69 0
0.22 0
0.49 0
1.09 0
0.55 0
-0.34 1
0.07 1
0.03 0
-0.59 1
-0.25 0
0.81 0
0.41 0
0.33 1
0.79 0
0.86 0
0.54 1
0.71 1
0.64 0
-2.05 0
0.54 0
0.95 0
-1.47 0
0.54 0
-1.45 0
0.43 0
0.57 1
0.43 1
0.19 0
0.77 0
-0.97 0
0.50 0
0.26 0
0.76 0
-0.56 0
0.58 0
-0.33 0
-0.70 0
-0.60 1
0.63 0
0.64 0
0.65 0
-0.79 0
-3.20 0
0.45 0
0.25 1
0.72 0
0.20 1
0.59 0
-0.04 1
-0.72 0
0.29 1
-1.05 1
0.26 0
-0.45 0
0.57 0
0.84 0
0.40 1
0.61 0
0.36 1
0.62 0
0.52 0
0.32 0
0.01 0
-0.44 1
-0.11 0
-0.19 0
0.35 0
0.18 0
-2.12 1
0.15 0
-0.13 0
0.09 0
0.26 1
-1.01 1
0.65 0
-0.10 0
0.49 0
0.34 0
0.41 1
-0.52 1
0.64 0
0.22 0
0.23 1
0.95 1
0.46 0
0.72 0
0.00 0
-0.69 0
0.32 0
-0.58 1
-0.89 1
0.23 0
0.05 0
0.63 0
0.64 0
0.47 0
0.56 0
0.48 0
0.11 1
0.51 0
0.28 1
-0.32 0
0.73 0
-0.96 0
0.22 1
0.83 0
0.37 0
0.57 0
0.39 0
0.68 1
0.51 0
-0.05 0
0.46 0
0.49 0
-0.03 1
-0.07 0
0.75 0
0.71 0
0.28 0
0.29 0
-0.49 0
0.53 1
0.45 1
0.06 0
0.65 0
0.05 0
0.13 0
-3.54 0
0.39 0
0.18 1
0.79 0
0.87 1
0.20 0
0.54 0
-3.05 0
-0.90 0
0.49 1
0.55 0
-0.67 0
0.66 0
0.57 0
-2.60 0
-0.01 0
0.00
1.00
Training Set of First 200 Applicants
Raw Data

6 39.32 4.58
148 49.85 5.39
2 34.58 11.97
51 43.64 18.97
126 35.17 15.51
39 26.52 0.75
66 54.82 0.64
172 20.19 0.32
47 32.16 7.37
87 31.48 11.60
159 23.85 0.58
63 25.42 1.34
156 26.49 0.45
187 25.82 0.45
94 29.92 0.28
11 35.27 1.04
70 26.96 0.17
171 32.37 3.40
31 39.42 2.35
3 37.70 12.46
176 28.52 1.33
154 31.49 2.02
64 30.48 0.35
130 23.99 0.31
88 24.08 0.14
93 33.70 5.46
185 38.35 19.20
106 28.50 6.02
136 21.39 0.33
4 28.68 1.39
116 24.13 2.50
9 46.78 11.96
112 20.43 3.01
95 44.78 13.29
140 26.20 2.82
132 25.51 0.80
147 33.27 5.47
18 25.58 2.75
184 29.35 0.20
137 27.06 9.28
53 23.31 0.97
77 27.77 1.32
79 31.02 9.66
49 40.55 6.26
123 29.04 10.76
108 25.80 3.63
121 37.49 15.02
82 30.83 0.72
162 20.43 0.62
22 37.35 20.99
84 23.94 0.68
28 30.80 0.58
178 36.20 6.33
169 55.58 11.74
143 32.13 0.67
180 25.23 1.64
179 28.88 0.99
59 21.35 5.53
114 22.86 3.54
102 31.61 9.64
48 29.26 4.33
58 22.19 0.52
181 27.86 2.75
72 30.24 1.58
198 24.97 2.37
150 25.96 5.30
43 29.91 6.77
125 37.01 3.84
194 38.66 0.61
155 33.93 4.60
193 28.27 6.85
111 30.14 13.76
195 44.13 0.04
141 28.99 1.60
83 26.99 3.32
168 30.31 2.04
71 46.96 1.79
50 23.68 3.40
149 29.01 4.91
145 40.22 24.21
189 31.07 0.49
36 42.83 0.91
117 44.34 2.60
61 28.99 0.63
129 41.71 10.03
29 39.61 1.19
13 32.34 7.40
109 46.60 11.46
30 32.61 3.64
146 23.44 4.83
19 31.49 13.63
138 25.72 4.59
105 51.03 10.98
101 35.83 6.40
197 24.60 7.82
190 38.08 17.83
142 34.84 4.36
103 27.76 7.44
97 23.99 4.52
151 24.39 4.49
167 26.25 7.23
186 36.05 4.12
182 35.96 4.96
68 30.01 4.04
27 39.68 4.29
131 43.14 5.89
75 33.23 5.86
62 37.50 5.33
67 32.72 15.56
25 49.45 4.57
56 28.93 6.12
20 43.70 2.58
37 28.50 5.18
12 25.97 4.21
152 27.09 5.49
128 55.72 7.52
196 42.20 13.25
96 32.09 7.44
134 36.53 10.59
1 32.53 9.39
165 33.94 11.44
21 31.18 3.69
52 29.42 4.61
166 35.93 5.01
110 29.12 8.59
73 43.03 4.46
35 42.02 12.29
173 26.84 12.79
16 31.32 7.84
89 31.50 8.33
74 27.99 6.90
192 40.01 20.18
85 41.79 10.79
157 33.78 7.63
10 27.27 9.47
99 36.76 10.03
76 49.15 17.12
40 27.90 11.44
26 25.16 9.31
69 28.60 9.84
115 24.37 7.77
160 33.26 7.61
5 32.61 7.49
127 51.10 6.02
55 31.65 9.13
65 38.23 7.51
133 33.71 12.70
54 34.04 8.71
122 33.01 8.80
90 46.28 7.97
92 28.65 11.32
80 42.20 6.58
120 35.60 13.64
139 42.51 13.04
33 35.31 8.83
183 33.68 15.80
188 32.23 8.16
177 26.60 9.73
57 44.24 20.05
104 46.29 14.53
17 27.30 7.70
34 27.33 7.86
158 33.10 11.12
199 38.96 16.69
32 49.11 11.67
107 35.93 18.74
135 42.73 11.33
153 31.04 10.96
8 42.00 15.93
81 45.45 31.65
78 49.49 8.74
45 39.57 23.90
113 33.77 10.62
7 46.85 16.90
163 31.65 9.79
44 35.48 13.10
38 49.65 15.12
46 41.08 14.51
119 36.73 10.92
164 36.36 14.10
23 41.97 14.45
42 30.38 11.80
175 33.16 13.45
144 40.25 13.84
60 37.31 13.80
14 48.82 22.37
191 51.75 15.31
170 37.30 21.79
118 32.68 15.82
91 45.66 18.22
86 38.55 16.92
161 47.08 29.57
98 43.68 18.12
174 38.12 18.29
24 46.09 25.78
200 45.87 16.41
15 51.81 26.63
100 53.97 31.37
124 47.12 22.95
41 47.18 24.53
mean 34.67 8.61

2.03 $222,106 -$16,353 -$55,419
1.79 $80,182 -$13,905 -$13,035
1.49 $65,765 -$15,598 -$17,632
0.90 $451,320 -$32,050 -$24,528
0.46 $47,201 -$14,557 -$22,228
1.53 $13,790 -$5,586 -$7,900
1.25 $27,061 -$5,517 -$10,775
0.65 $17,109 -$4,164 -$6,581
1.26 $42,545 -$5,967 -$19,499
0.46 $62,996 -$11,126 -$13,652
0.03 $33,501 -$4,331 -$8,748
0.99 $28,273 -$3,513 -$8,887
0.17 $16,585 -$3,910 -$5,587
0.34 $34,054 -$4,388 -$5,065
0.34 $25,886 -$2,660 -$11,608
0.78 $20,060 -$3,899 -$2,634
0.51 $21,170 -$2,840 -$3,925
2.02 $24,386 -$3,680 -$2,724
1.15 $12,508 -$3,783 -$3,376
0.09 $61,002 -$11,402 -$7,910
0.71 $30,968 -$3,427 -$4,260
0.72 $22,928 -$4,104 -$2,220
1.06 $15,263 -$1,604 -$5,876
1.10 $23,258 -$1,473 -$4,459
2.12 $18,529 -$172 -$2,671
0.33 $41,565 -$5,273 -$8,862
2.09 $73,367 -$7,698 -$32,858
1.13 $29,038 -$4,224 -$6,676
1.01 $25,384 -$1,210 -$3,349
1.84 $19,953 -$1,233 -$2,408
0.89 $24,754 -$2,503 -$3,715
0.67 $55,248 -$7,435 -$18,233
0.80 $24,265 -$2,807 -$2,101
0.54 $61,042 -$9,940 -$10,872
1.07 $25,410 -$2,235 -$4,641
1.62 $26,907 -$1,129 -$1,551
1.10 $44,970 -$3,555 -$10,735
0.46 $17,830 -$2,145 -$6,228
0.97 $22,488 -$677 -$5,391
0.71 $43,993 -$5,813 -$10,241
1.17 $24,528 -$758 -$4,273
0.45 $18,508 -$2,136 -$2,307
0.29 $52,304 -$5,215 -$17,394
1.45 $191,461 -$6,309 -$23,389
0.01 $43,359 -$7,606 -$7,822
0.18 $19,828 -$2,952 -$4,217
0.94 $40,241 -$8,961 -$9,643
0.19 $25,223 -$1,888 -$3,180
0.31 $16,942 -$412 -$4,704
2.02 $92,609 -$10,895 -$18,365
0.44 $19,048 -$581 -$3,148
1.82 $19,313 $30 -$496
0.65 $35,808 -$3,371 -$10,032
0.20 $57,901 -$9,563 -$6,763
0.70 $33,664 -$1,579 -$1,008
0.85 $14,781 -$457 -$2,989
0.81 $16,540 -$523 -$2,422
0.95 $14,331 -$1,811 -$4,768
1.67 $15,752 -$39 -$3,395
0.47 $49,859 -$6,374 -$4,487
1.14 $38,367 -$2,460 -$2,224
0.14 $17,677 -$320 -$1,198
0.56 $27,109 -$826 -$5,903
1.00 $15,146 -$558 $34
0.31 $27,214 -$1,446 -$2,101
0.03 $76,293 -$4,397 -$6,020
1.26 $19,060 -$2,338 -$4,486
0.01 $25,487 -$2,465 -$5,022
0.13 $30,129 -$1,210 -$2,707
0.80 $16,859 -$1,908 -$2,807
0.39 $52,054 -$2,459 -$13,117
1.30 $58,770 -$6,476 -$9,729
0.76 $25,094 -$293 -$2,250
0.90 $14,720 -$392 $718
0.12 $16,498 -$1,539 -$2,102
0.80 $28,720 -$555 -$2,600
0.97 $26,287 -$1,481 -$446
0.52 $50,445 -$500 -$9,582
1.02 $35,784 -$1,574 -$4,677
1.30 $77,330 -$13,082 -$11,505
0.04 $16,796 -$404 $125
1.05 $64,389 -$432 -$7,002
0.19 $33,714 -$2,380 -$1,755
0.44 $18,098 -$184 $1,747
1.47 $72,713 -$5,636 -$5,688
0.02 $20,357 -$600 -$3,112
2.90 $35,108 -$1,316 -$1,951
0.54 $52,869 -$5,046 -$14,190
0.72 $18,431 -$448 -$3,283
0.60 $22,267 -$646 -$3,964
1.04 $67,806 -$7,510 -$3,132
0.93 $20,669 -$664 -$1,563
2.21 $35,666 -$4,834 -$1,983
0.28 $68,075 -$4,241 -$3,025
1.93 $17,453 -$984 -$1,432
0.22 $67,277 -$10,497 -$4,908
0.60 $39,648 -$1,471 -$2,959
2.13 $27,254 -$1,084 -$1,014
0.50 $11,522 -$201 -$1,622
0.85 $23,507 -$210 -$1,696
1.40 $15,723 -$1,075 -$1,288
0.04 $17,290 -$910 -$3,460
0.45 $19,912 -$1,345 -$1,489
0.57 $17,915 -$498 -$307
1.74 $73,553 -$1,711 -$1,285
0.27 $54,688 -$897 -$13,898
0.60 $20,504 -$1,259 -$1,560
1.17 $18,687 -$352 -$2,286
0.06 $74,098 -$7,920 -$8,218
0.67 $29,489 -$1,202 -$3,453
0.07 $46,794 -$2,353 -$2,643
0.28 $20,192 -$323 -$830
0.28 $16,711 -$1,234 $1,247
0.60 $35,387 -$191 -$1,661
0.08 $12,590 -$755 -$1,582
0.34 $63,054 -$3,933 -$7,379
0.58 $58,644 -$5,165 -$11,395
1.84 $25,162 -$648 -$1,691
1.92 $30,474 -$2,609 -$2,693
0.30 $37,844 -$3,247 -$4,795
0.81 $31,123 -$4,247 -$2,142
0.02 $12,517 $34 -$642
0.26 $24,542 -$126 -$2,427
0.26 $20,367 -$291 -$3,493
1.01 $35,060 -$1,460 -$4,421
0.37 $31,945 -$846 -$2,328
0.73 $84,270 -$3,020 -$19,178
0.33 $95,717 -$5,808 -$6,871
0.35 $41,565 -$341 -$11,030
0.28 $39,169 -$1,980 -$4,428
0.68 $29,452 -$822 -$1,067
1.64 $144,700 -$6,447 -$29,135
1.01 $35,485 -$2,862 -$4,971
0.31 $31,945 -$1,572 -$2,553
0.48 $33,040 -$1,833 -$3,632
0.75 $46,221 -$1,027 -$12,245
0.42 $112,965 -$6,629 -$21,660
0.26 $35,216 -$3,093 -$3,920
0.36 $27,376 -$1,144 -$4,042
0.56 $23,058 -$1,417 -$3,335
0.09 $20,414 -$705 -$1,789
0.11 $24,083 -$1,325 -$924
0.23 $24,970 -$1,136 -$397
0.48 $28,924 -$199 -$5,224
0.77 $46,320 -$1,867 -$1,458
0.46 $39,352 -$415 -$6,147
0.52 $24,672 -$2,294 -$7,104
0.14 $36,140 -$1,247 -$5,135
0.56 $48,644 -$777 -$7,196
0.55 $36,914 -$1,950 -$687
0.12 $26,330 -$2,584 -$2,079
0.60 $34,375 -$313 -$2,349
1.42 $53,531 -$2,849 -$6,309
0.20 $35,459 -$3,855 -$4,736
1.20 $28,598 -$888 $1,220
1.87 $59,362 -$3,681 -$5,972
0.49 $25,633 -$486 -$453
0.12 $31,196 -$859 -$4,227
0.25 $112,352 -$6,493 -$24,003
1.66 $69,674 -$4,305 -$4,915
0.26 $35,831 -$287 -$1,158
0.06 $21,613 -$27 -$1,008
0.18 $27,090 -$1,535 -$4,258
0.69 $115,211 -$3,206 -$25,827
1.17 $77,851 -$1,954 -$10,429
0.41 $58,226 -$5,095 -$11,737
1.44 $31,997 -$773 -$3,863
1.00 $28,164 -$351 -$2,871
2.80 $117,987 -$5,313 -$1,797
0.62 $249,836 -$18,532 -$17,228
0.98 $16,478 -$173 $707
0.37 $70,302 -$6,211 -$21,487
1.46 $48,850 -$702 -$66
1.00 $74,283 -$4,468 -$8,517
0.20 $29,747 -$396 -$194
3.70 $81,993 -$736 $493
0.80 $80,738 -$5,168 -$2,204
0.49 $35,722 -$2,569 -$4,369
0.79 $73,159 -$1,337 -$3,992
1.41 $53,737 -$1,597 -$3,616
1.99 $55,837 -$1,443 -$3,774
0.32 $32,065 -$357 -$219
0.22 $25,895 -$1,028 -$1,074
0.09 $65,386 -$1,808 -$6,358
0.43 $71,326 -$2,051 -$2,719
0.04 $116,698 -$8,255 -$9,030
0.40 $46,265 -$2,569 -$2,339
0.62 $48,117 -$5,082 -$2,942
0.40 $57,887 -$1,614 -$2,516
1.16 $83,778 -$1,645 -$10,598
0.63 $95,949 -$2,875 -$591
1.84 $149,418 -$7,973 -$13,568
0.85 $46,788 -$944 -$1,548
0.89 $45,262 -$718 -$754
0.30 $63,307 -$1,931 -$21,382
0.01 $123,171 -$1,195 -$6,470
0.54 $165,132 -$1,754 -$34,033
0.45 $250,323 -$8,505 -$30,319
1.01 $97,958 -$1,737 -$3,753
0.98 $117,904 -$1,368 -$10,138
0.78 48439.96 -3202.11 -6378.07
0.62 47862.35 3892.03 7472.44

Standardized Data
Outcomes: Default = 1 connector Unique Applicant ID

1 6 6
1 148 148
1 2 2
1 51 51
1 126 126
1 39 39
1 66 66
1 172 172
1 47 47
0 87 87
0 159 159
1 63 63
1 156 156
1 187 187
0 94 94
1 11 11
1 70 70
0 171 171
1 31 31
1 3 3
0 176 176
0 154 154
1 64 64
1 130 130
0 88 88
0 93 93
0 185 185
1 106 106
1 136 136
0 4 4
1 116 116
0 9 9
0 112 112
1 95 95
1 140 140
0 132 132
1 147 147
1 18 18
0 184 184
1 137 137
1 53 53
0 77 77
0 79 79
0 49 49
0 123 123
1 108 108
1 121 121
0 82 82
1 162 162
0 22 22
1 84 84
0 28 28
0 178 178
0 169 169
0 143 143
1 180 180
1 179 179
0 59 59
1 114 114
1 102 102
1 48 48
0 58 58
0 181 181
0 72 72
0 198 198
0 150 150
0 43 43
0 125 125
1 194 194
0 155 155
0 193 193
0 111 111
0 195 195
1 141 141
1 83 83
0 168 168
0 71 71
1 50 50
0 149 149
0 145 145
1 189 189
0 36 36
0 117 117
0 61 61
0 129 129
0 29 29
1 13 13
1 109 109
0 30 30
0 146 146
0 19 19
0 138 138
0 105 105
0 101 101
0 197 197
0 190 190
0 142 142
0 103 103
0 97 97
0 151 151
1 167 167
0 186 186
0 182 182
0 68 68
0 27 27
1 131 131
0 75 75
0 62 62
0 67 67
1 25 25
0 56 56
0 20 20
0 37 37
0 12 12
0 152 152
0 128 128
0 196 196
0 96 96
0 134 134
0 1 1
0 165 165
0 21 21
0 52 52
0 166 166
0 110 110
1 73 73
0 35 35
0 173 173
0 16 16
0 89 89
1 74 74
0 192 192
0 85 85
0 157 157
0 10 10
0 99 99
0 76 76
0 40 40
0 26 26
0 69 69
0 115 115
0 160 160
0 5 5
0 127 127
0 55 55
0 65 65
0 133 133
0 54 54
0 122 122
0 90 90
0 92 92
0 80 80
0 120 120
0 139 139
0 33 33
0 183 183
0 188 188
0 177 177
0 57 57
1 104 104
0 17 17
0 34 34
1 158 158
0 199 199
0 32 32
0 107 107
0 135 135
0 153 153
0 8 8
0 81 81
0 78 78
0 45 45
0 113 113
0 7 7
0 163 163
0 44 44
0 38 38
0 46 46
0 119 119
0 164 164
0 23 23
0 42 42
0 175 175
0 144 144
0 60 60
0 14 14
0 191 191
0 170 170
0 118 118
0 91 91
0 86 86
0 161 161
0 98 98
0 174 174
0 24 24
0 200 200
0 15 15
0 100 100
0 124 124
0 41 41
mean
standard deviation
Linest
Function
Y( ln F) =
Age Years at Employer Years at Address Income
0.57 -0.60 2.02 3.63
1.85 -0.48 1.63 0.66
-0.01 0.50 1.14 0.36
1.09 1.53 0.20 8.42
0.06 1.02 -0.51 -0.03
-0.99 -1.16 1.22 -0.72
2.46 -1.18 0.75 -0.45
-1.76 -1.23 -0.21 -0.65
-0.31 -0.18 0.78 -0.12
-0.39 0.44 -0.52 0.30
-1.32 -1.19 -1.21 -0.31
-1.13 -1.07 0.33 -0.42
-1.00 -1.21 -0.98 -0.67
-1.08 -1.21 -0.71 -0.30
-0.58 -1.23 -0.71 -0.47
0.07 -1.12 -0.01 -0.59
-0.94 -1.25 -0.44 -0.57
-0.28 -0.77 2.01 -0.50
0.58 -0.92 0.61 -0.75
0.37 0.57 -1.12 0.26
-0.75 -1.08 -0.11 -0.37
-0.39 -0.97 -0.09 -0.53
-0.51 -1.22 0.45 -0.69
-1.30 -1.23 0.52 -0.53
-1.29 -1.25 2.17 -0.62
-0.12 -0.47 -0.73 -0.14
0.45 1.56 2.12 0.52
-0.75 -0.38 0.56 -0.41
-1.62 -1.22 0.38 -0.48
-0.73 -1.07 1.71 -0.60
-1.28 -0.90 0.19 -0.49
1.48 0.49 -0.18 0.14
-1.74 -0.83 0.04 -0.51
1.23 0.69 -0.39 0.26
-1.03 -0.85 0.47 -0.48
-1.12 -1.15 1.36 -0.45
-0.17 -0.46 0.52 -0.07
-1.11 -0.87 -0.51 -0.64
-0.65 -1.24 0.31 -0.54
-0.93 0.10 -0.12 -0.09
-1.38 -1.13 0.64 -0.50
-0.84 -1.08 -0.53 -0.63
-0.44 0.16 -0.79 0.08
0.72 -0.35 1.08 2.99
-0.69 0.32 -1.25 -0.11
-1.08 -0.74 -0.96 -0.60
0.34 0.95 0.25 -0.17
-0.47 -1.17 -0.95 -0.49
-1.73 -1.18 -0.75 -0.66
0.33 1.83 2.00 0.92
-1.31 -1.17 -0.55 -0.61
-0.47 -1.19 1.68 -0.61
0.19 -0.34 -0.21 -0.26
2.55 0.46 -0.94 0.20
-0.31 -1.17 -0.13 -0.31
-1.15 -1.03 0.12 -0.70
-0.71 -1.13 0.05 -0.67
-1.62 -0.46 0.27 -0.71
-1.44 -0.75 1.44 -0.68
-0.37 0.15 -0.50 0.03
-0.66 -0.63 0.58 -0.21
-1.52 -1.19 -1.03 -0.64
-0.83 -0.87 -0.36 -0.45
-0.54 -1.04 0.35 -0.70
-1.18 -0.92 -0.76 -0.44
-1.06 -0.49 -1.21 0.58
-0.58 -0.27 0.77 -0.61
0.29 -0.70 -1.24 -0.48
0.49 -1.18 -1.05 -0.38
-0.09 -0.59 0.04 -0.66
-0.78 -0.26 -0.63 0.08
-0.55 0.76 0.84 0.22
1.15 -1.27 -0.03 -0.49
-0.69 -1.04 0.20 -0.70
-0.94 -0.78 -1.06 -0.67
-0.53 -0.97 0.03 -0.41
1.50 -1.01 0.30 -0.46
-1.34 -0.77 -0.42 0.04
-0.69 -0.55 0.38 -0.26
0.68 2.30 0.83 0.60
-0.44 -1.20 -1.20 -0.66
1.00 -1.14 0.44 0.33
1.18 -0.89 -0.95 -0.31
-0.69 -1.18 -0.55 -0.63
0.86 0.21 1.12 0.51
0.60 -1.10 -1.22 -0.59
-0.28 -0.18 3.43 -0.28
1.46 0.42 -0.39 0.09
-0.25 -0.74 -0.10 -0.63
-1.37 -0.56 -0.29 -0.55
-0.39 0.74 0.42 0.40
-1.09 -0.59 0.25 -0.58
2.00 0.35 2.31 -0.27
0.14 -0.33 -0.81 0.41
-1.23 -0.12 1.86 -0.65
0.42 1.36 -0.91 0.39
0.02 -0.63 -0.28 -0.18
-0.84 -0.17 2.19 -0.44
-1.30 -0.60 -0.45 -0.77
-1.25 -0.61 0.12 -0.52
-1.03 -0.20 1.01 -0.68
0.17 -0.66 -1.19 -0.65
0.16 -0.54 -0.54 -0.60
-0.57 -0.67 -0.34 -0.64
0.61 -0.64 1.56 0.52
1.03 -0.40 -0.82 0.13
-0.18 -0.41 -0.29 -0.58
0.34 -0.49 0.64 -0.62
-0.24 1.02 -1.17 0.54
1.80 -0.60 -0.18 -0.40
-0.70 -0.37 -1.15 -0.03
1.10 -0.89 -0.80 -0.59
-0.75 -0.51 -0.80 -0.66
-1.06 -0.65 -0.28 -0.27
-0.92 -0.46 -1.14 -0.75
2.57 -0.16 -0.72 0.31
0.92 0.68 -0.32 0.21
-0.31 -0.17 1.71 -0.49
0.23 0.29 1.84 -0.38
-0.26 0.11 -0.78 -0.22
-0.09 0.42 0.05 -0.36
-0.43 -0.73 -1.22 -0.75
-0.64 -0.59 -0.84 -0.50
0.15 -0.53 -0.84 -0.59
-0.68 0.00 0.37 -0.28
1.02 -0.61 -0.66 -0.34
0.90 0.54 -0.09 0.75
-0.95 0.62 -0.72 0.99
-0.41 -0.11 -0.69 -0.14
-0.39 -0.04 -0.81 -0.19
-0.81 -0.25 -0.16 -0.40
0.65 1.71 1.38 2.01
0.87 0.32 0.38 -0.27
-0.11 -0.15 -0.76 -0.34
-0.90 0.13 -0.49 -0.32
0.25 0.21 -0.06 -0.05
1.77 1.26 -0.58 1.35
-0.82 0.42 -0.84 -0.28
-1.16 0.10 -0.68 -0.44
-0.74 0.18 -0.35 -0.53
-1.26 -0.13 -1.11 -0.59
-0.17 -0.15 -1.08 -0.51
-0.25 -0.17 -0.88 -0.49
2.00 -0.38 -0.48 -0.41
-0.37 0.08 -0.01 -0.04
0.43 -0.16 -0.52 -0.19
-0.12 0.60 -0.42 -0.50
-0.08 0.01 -1.04 -0.26
-0.20 0.03 -0.35 0.00
1.42 -0.10 -0.37 -0.24
-0.73 0.40 -1.07 -0.46
0.92 -0.30 -0.29 -0.29
0.11 0.74 1.04 0.11
0.96 0.65 -0.94 -0.27
0.08 0.03 0.67 -0.41
-0.12 1.06 1.75 0.23
-0.30 -0.07 -0.46 -0.48
-0.98 0.17 -1.07 -0.36
1.17 1.69 -0.86 1.34
1.42 0.87 1.43 0.44
-0.90 -0.13 -0.84 -0.26
-0.89 -0.11 -1.17 -0.56
-0.19 0.37 -0.96 -0.45
0.52 1.19 -0.14 1.40
1.76 0.45 0.64 0.61
0.15 1.49 -0.59 0.20
0.98 0.40 1.07 -0.34
-0.44 0.35 0.35 -0.42
0.89 1.08 3.27 1.45
1.31 3.40 -0.25 4.21
1.81 0.02 0.33 -0.67
0.60 2.26 -0.66 0.46
-0.11 0.30 1.11 0.01
1.48 1.22 0.35 0.54
-0.37 0.17 -0.94 -0.39
0.10 0.66 4.71 0.70
1.83 0.96 0.03 0.67
0.78 0.87 -0.47 -0.27
0.25 0.34 0.02 0.52
0.21 0.81 1.02 0.11
0.89 0.86 1.95 0.15
-0.52 0.47 -0.74 -0.34
-0.18 0.71 -0.90 -0.47
0.68 0.77 -1.11 0.35
0.32 0.77 -0.57 0.48
1.73 2.03 -1.19 1.43
2.08 0.99 -0.62 -0.05
0.32 1.95 -0.26 -0.01
-0.24 1.06 -0.61 0.20
1.34 1.42 0.62 0.74
0.47 1.23 -0.24 0.99
1.51 3.09 1.72 2.11
1.10 1.40 0.11 -0.03
0.42 1.43 0.18 -0.07
1.39 2.53 -0.77 0.31
1.37 1.15 -1.24 1.56
2.09 2.66 -0.38 2.44
2.35 3.36 -0.53 4.22
1.52 2.12 0.37 1.03
1.53 2.35 0.33 1.45
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Automobile Debt Credit Card Debt Income Years at Addr

-0.0746276833 -0.1863839933 -0.0835041673 0.0323189659
0.0368486526 0.0395004791 0.0465689335 0.0270559929
0.2600953945 0.3791620343 #N/A #N/A
11.3074061088 193 #N/A #N/A
9.7535772935 27.7464227065 #N/A #N/A
beta(6)*x(6) beta(5)*x(5) beta4*x4 beta(3)*x(3)

SDev of error SDev of error SDev of error SDev of error
R^2 SDev(y)
F-statistic - not applicableDegrees of Freedom - not applicable
"Regression Sum of Squa"Residual Sum of Squares"
=R218+ L214*automobile_debt + M214*credit_card_debt + N214*income + O214*years_at_address + P214*ye

Credit Card Debt Automobile Debt Outcomes: Default = 1
-3.38 -6.56 1
-2.75 -0.89 1
-3.18 -1.51 1
-7.41 -2.43 1
-2.92 -2.12 1
-0.61 -0.20 1
-0.59 -0.59 1
-0.25 -0.03 1
-0.71 -1.76 1
-2.04 -0.97 0
-0.29 -0.32 0
-0.08 -0.34 1
-0.18 0.11 1
-0.30 0.18 1
0.14 -0.70 0
-0.18 0.50 1
0.09 0.33 1
-0.12 0.49 0
-0.15 0.40 1
-2.11 -0.21 1
-0.06 0.28 0
-0.23 0.56 0
0.41 0.07 1
0.44 0.26 1
0.78 0.50 0
-0.53 -0.33 0
-1.16 -3.54 0
-0.26 -0.04 1
0.51 0.41 1
0.51 0.53 0
0.18 0.36 1
-1.09 -1.59 0
0.10 0.57 0
-1.73 -0.60 1
0.25 0.23 1
0.53 0.65 0
-0.09 -0.58 1
0.27 0.02 1
0.65 0.13 0
-0.67 -0.52 1
0.63 0.28 1
0.27 0.54 0
-0.52 -1.47 0
-0.80 -2.28 0
-1.13 -0.19 0
0.06 0.29 1
-1.48 -0.44 1
0.34 0.43 0
0.72 0.22 1
-1.98 -1.60 0
0.67 0.43 1
0.83 0.79 0
-0.04 -0.49 0
-1.63 -0.05 0
0.42 0.72 0
0.71 0.45 1
0.69 0.53 1
0.36 0.22 0
0.81 0.40 1
-0.82 0.25 1
0.19 0.56 1
0.74 0.69 0
0.61 0.06 0
0.68 0.86 0
0.45 0.57 0
-0.31 0.05 0
0.22 0.25 0
0.19 0.18 0
0.51 0.49 1
0.33 0.48 0
0.19 -0.90 0
-0.84 -0.45 0
0.75 0.55 0
0.72 0.95 1
0.43 0.57 1
0.68 0.51 0
0.44 0.79 0
0.69 -0.43 1
0.42 0.23 0
-2.54 -0.69 0
0.72 0.87 1
0.71 -0.08 0
0.21 0.62 0
0.78 1.09 0
-0.63 0.09 0
0.67 0.44 0
0.48 0.59 1
-0.47 -1.05 1
0.71 0.41 0
0.66 0.32 0
-1.11 0.43 0
0.65 0.64 0
-0.42 0.59 0
-0.27 0.45 0
0.57 0.66 0
-1.87 0.20 0
0.44 0.46 0
0.54 0.72 0
0.77 0.64 0
0.77 0.63 0
0.55 0.68 1
0.59 0.39 0
0.48 0.65 0
0.69 0.81 0
0.38 0.68 0
0.59 -1.01 1
0.50 0.64 0
0.73 0.55 0
-1.21 -0.25 0
0.51 0.39 1
0.22 0.50 0
0.74 0.74 0
0.51 1.02 0
0.77 0.63 0
0.63 0.64 0
-0.19 -0.13 0
-0.50 -0.67 0
0.66 0.63 0
0.15 0.49 0
-0.01 0.21 0
-0.27 0.57 0
0.83 0.77 0
0.79 0.53 0
0.75 0.39 0
0.45 0.26 0
0.61 0.54 1
0.05 -1.71 0
-0.67 -0.07 0
0.74 -0.62 0
0.31 0.26 0
0.61 0.71 1
-0.83 -3.05 0
0.09 0.19 0
0.42 0.51 0
0.35 0.37 0
0.56 -0.79 0
-0.88 -2.05 0
0.03 0.33 0
0.53 0.31 0
0.46 0.41 0
0.64 0.61 0
0.48 0.73 0
0.53 0.80 0
0.77 0.15 0
0.34 0.66 0
0.72 0.03 0
0.23 -0.10 0
0.50 0.17 0
0.62 -0.11 0
0.32 0.76 0
0.16 0.58 0
0.74 0.54 0
0.09 0.01 0
-0.17 0.22 0
0.59 1.02 0
-0.12 0.05 0
0.70 0.79 0
0.60 0.29 0
-0.85 -2.36 0
-0.28 0.20 1
0.75 0.70 0
0.82 0.72 0
0.43 0.28 1
0.00 -2.60 0
0.32 -0.54 0
-0.49 -0.72 0
0.62 0.34 0
0.73 0.47 0
-0.54 0.61 0
-3.94 -1.45 0
0.78 0.95 0
-0.77 -2.02 0
0.64 0.84 0
-0.33 -0.29 0
0.72 0.83 0
0.63 0.92 0
-0.51 0.56 0
0.16 0.27 0
0.48 0.32 0
0.41 0.37 0
0.45 0.35 0
0.73 0.82 0
0.56 0.71 0
0.36 0.00 0
0.30 0.49 0
-1.30 -0.35 0
0.16 0.54 0
-0.48 0.46 0
0.41 0.52 0
0.40 -0.56 0
0.08 0.77 0
-1.23 -0.96 0
0.58 0.65 0
0.64 0.75 0
0.33 -2.01 0
0.52 -0.01 0
0.37 -3.70 0
-1.36 -3.20 0
0.38 0.35 0
0.47 -0.50 0
0.00 0.00
1.00 1.00
Years at Employer Age Outcomes: Default = 1

-0.1871656758 -0.0228121971 0.25
0.0365622573 0.0325118531 0.0268108046
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
beta(2)*x(2) beta(1)*x(1) alpha

SDev of error SDev of error SDev of error
ars_at_address + P214*years_at_employer + Q214*age

at each threshold
reversed
binary binary
connector Pred. scores output output True positive False positive
6 1.2305446236 1 0 1 0
148 0.8734532792 1 0 2 0
2 0.8700568934 1 0 3 0
51 0.8050939001 1 0 4 0
126 0.7456700689 1 0 5 0
39 0.7192749703 1 0 6 0
66 0.6305855859 1 0 7 0
172 0.615584768 1 0 8 0
47 0.5905224235 1 0 9 0
87 0.5862048555 0 1 9 1
159 0.5667986432 0 1 9 2
63 0.5626304553 1 0 10 2
156 0.5482903556 1 0 11 2
187 0.5459863276 1 0 12 2
94 0.5362924548 0 1 12 3
11 0.5028667601 1 0 13 3
70 0.4963443064 1 0 14 3
171 0.4936862543 0 1 14 4
31 0.4899574837 1 0 15 4
3 0.48513544 1 0 16 4
176 0.4850493381 0 1 16 5
154 0.4843260806 0 1 16 6
64 0.4809058262 1 0 17 6
130 0.4679899107 1 0 18 6
88 0.4536687288 0 1 18 7
93 0.4521666888 0 1 18 8
185 0.4520726026 0 1 18 9
106 0.4428785729 1 0 19 9
136 0.4426378836 1 0 20 9
4 0.4373681448 0 1 20 10
116 0.4356333542 1 0 21 10
9 0.4272748359 0 1 21 11
112 0.4261822772 0 1 21 12
95 0.4257128889 1 0 22 12
140 0.4253768163 1 0 23 12
132 0.4253270588 0 1 23 13
147 0.4238486122 1 0 24 13
18 0.422081537 1 0 25 13
184 0.4219624523 0 1 25 14
137 0.4203651799 1 0 26 14
53 0.4170966235 1 0 27 14
77 0.4139873896 0 1 27 15
79 0.4051845637 0 1 27 16
49 0.4027945038 0 1 27 17
123 0.4000048134 0 1 27 18
108 0.397675359 1 0 28 18
121 0.3958486268 1 0 29 18
82 0.3936849863 0 1 29 19
162 0.3906978035 1 0 30 19
22 0.3764297756 0 1 30 20
84 0.3750089438 1 0 31 20
28 0.3744268894 0 1 31 21
178 0.3688694293 0 1 31 22
169 0.3670235521 0 1 31 23
143 0.3668959446 0 1 31 24
180 0.3662635062 1 0 32 24
179 0.3661212956 1 0 33 24
59 0.3576457988 0 1 33 25
114 0.3455130139 1 0 34 25
102 0.3445502583 1 0 35 25
48 0.3429327915 1 0 36 25
58 0.3389241309 0 1 36 26
181 0.3380948337 0 1 36 27
72 0.335592335 0 1 36 28
198 0.3353503015 0 1 36 29
150 0.3318965945 0 1 36 30
43 0.3300450737 0 1 36 31
125 0.3264774341 0 1 36 32
194 0.3261223407 1 0 37 32
155 0.3216699085 0 1 37 33
193 0.321629801 0 1 37 34
111 0.3200231952 0 1 37 35
195 0.3199563743 0 1 37 36
141 0.3192344064 1 0 38 36
83 0.31677362 1 0 39 36
168 0.3146897201 0 1 39 37
71 0.3110210813 0 1 39 38
50 0.3101641085 1 0 40 38
149 0.3075417645 0 1 40 39
145 0.3046070569 0 1 40 40
189 0.3017840589 1 0 41 40
36 0.3001416016 0 1 41 41
117 0.2987447523 0 1 41 42
61 0.2958548745 0 1 41 43
129 0.2947423621 0 1 41 44
29 0.2937440519 0 1 41 45
13 0.2894544404 1 0 42 45
109 0.2841895064 1 0 43 45
30 0.279674008 0 1 43 46
146 0.275581486 0 1 43 47
19 0.273793618 0 1 43 48
138 0.2731547415 0 1 43 49
105 0.2703411664 0 1 43 50
101 0.2636881108 0 1 43 51
197 0.2585424474 0 1 43 52
190 0.2584759813 0 1 43 53
142 0.2562404487 0 1 43 54
103 0.2542445475 0 1 43 55
97 0.2516042817 0 1 43 56
151 0.2497351327 0 1 43 57
167 0.2485346932 1 0 44 57
186 0.2473532806 0 1 44 58
182 0.2419579996 0 1 44 59
68 0.2414140893 0 1 44 60
27 0.2399031098 0 1 44 61
131 0.2289952906 1 0 45 61
75 0.2283507978 0 1 45 62
62 0.2280366142 0 1 45 63
67 0.2254372229 0 1 45 64
25 0.2229664263 1 0 46 64
56 0.222740231 0 1 46 65
20 0.2218290271 0 1 46 66
37 0.2210965968 0 1 46 67
12 0.2183045255 0 1 46 68
152 0.218039529 0 1 46 69
128 0.2178929429 0 1 46 70
196 0.2169333714 0 1 46 71
96 0.2164900738 0 1 46 72
134 0.2158874314 0 1 46 73
1 0.2142145071 0 1 46 74
165 0.2133577402 0 1 46 75
21 0.2067119929 0 1 46 76
52 0.2029759537 0 1 46 77
166 0.199728267 0 1 46 78
110 0.1985126896 0 1 46 79
73 0.1957120299 1 0 47 79
35 0.1817276547 0 1 47 80
173 0.180434496 0 1 47 81
16 0.179628318 0 1 47 82
89 0.1785485786 0 1 47 83
74 0.1768455145 1 0 48 83
192 0.1749563758 0 1 48 84
85 0.1744907296 0 1 48 85
157 0.1675151896 0 1 48 86
10 0.1650270681 0 1 48 87
99 0.161580668 0 1 48 88
76 0.1601646116 0 1 48 89
40 0.156939356 0 1 48 90
26 0.1501919651 0 1 48 91
69 0.1500849297 0 1 48 92
115 0.1495545523 0 1 48 93
160 0.1448312598 0 1 48 94
5 0.1405965829 0 1 48 95
127 0.1391204099 0 1 48 96
55 0.1344570761 0 1 48 97
65 0.1339741112 0 1 48 98
133 0.1313427248 0 1 48 99
54 0.1309873851 0 1 48 100
122 0.1299815492 0 1 48 101
90 0.1270930999 0 1 48 102
92 0.1234520783 0 1 48 103
80 0.1218550137 0 1 48 104
120 0.1156633802 0 1 48 105
139 0.1131117296 0 1 48 106
33 0.111882571 0 1 48 107
183 0.1106321744 0 1 48 108
188 0.104818149 0 1 48 109
177 0.1031836457 0 1 48 110
57 0.1014796007 0 1 48 111
104 0.1013499832 1 0 49 111
17 0.0989270814 0 1 49 112
34 0.094751486 0 1 49 113
158 0.0903144287 1 0 50 113
199 0.0880967514 0 1 50 114
32 0.0754389829 0 1 50 115
107 0.074651725 0 1 50 116
135 0.0742055437 0 1 50 117
153 0.070395635 0 1 50 118
8 0.0670243557 0 1 50 119
81 0.0664813665 0 1 50 120
78 0.0558462983 0 1 50 121
45 0.0496967028 0 1 50 122
113 0.049479589 0 1 50 123
7 0.0354655412 0 1 50 124
163 0.0321573958 0 1 50 125
44 0.030738292 0 1 50 126
38 0.0257462055 0 1 50 127
46 0.0257049894 0 1 50 128
119 0.0251692839 0 1 50 129
164 0.0130139041 0 1 50 130
23 0.0082391271 0 1 50 131
42 -0.0193286279 0 1 50 132
175 -0.0263611994 0 1 50 133
144 -0.0425932398 0 1 50 134
60 -0.0506367114 0 1 50 135
14 -0.058574415 0 1 50 136
191 -0.0693832662 0 1 50 137
170 -0.0735300991 0 1 50 138
118 -0.0946038521 0 1 50 139
91 -0.1201487775 0 1 50 140
86 -0.1541792498 0 1 50 141
161 -0.1838550369 0 1 50 142
98 -0.187543317 0 1 50 143
174 -0.1906847951 0 1 50 144
24 -0.2180557606 0 1 50 145
200 -0.2623308322 0 1 50 146
15 -0.3045387766 0 1 50 147
100 -0.3089723911 0 1 50 148
124 -0.3516873827 0 1 50 149
41 -0.3854261277 0 1 50 150
defaulters non-defaulters 50 150

unprofitable profitable
50 150
Default = 1 | un-profitable
Default = 0 | profitable
True '+'
True negetive False negetive False '+' rate rate X - axis Y - axis
150 49 0 0.02 0 0.01
150 48 0 0.04 0 0.03
150 47 0 0.06 0 0.05
150 46 0 0.08 0 0.07
150 45 0 0.1 0 0.09
150 44 0 0.12 0 0.11
150 43 0 0.14 0 0.13
150 42 0 0.16 0 0.15
150 41 0 0.18 0 0.17
149 41 0.006666667 0.18 0.006666667 0.18
148 41 0.013333333 0.18 0.006666667 0.18
148 40 0.013333333 0.2 0 0.19
148 39 0.013333333 0.22 0 0.21
148 38 0.013333333 0.24 0 0.23
147 38 0.02 0.24 0.006666667 0.24
147 37 0.02 0.26 0 0.25
147 36 0.02 0.28 0 0.27
146 36 0.026666667 0.28 0.006666667 0.28
146 35 0.026666667 0.3 0 0.29
146 34 0.026666667 0.32 0 0.31
145 34 0.033333333 0.32 0.006666667 0.32
144 34 0.04 0.32 0.006666667 0.32
144 33 0.04 0.34 0 0.33
144 32 0.04 0.36 0 0.35
143 32 0.046666667 0.36 0.006666667 0.36
142 32 0.053333333 0.36 0.006666667 0.36
141 32 0.06 0.36 0.006666667 0.36
141 31 0.06 0.38 0 0.37
141 30 0.06 0.4 0 0.39
140 30 0.066666667 0.4 0.006666667 0.4
140 29 0.066666667 0.42 0 0.41
139 29 0.073333333 0.42 0.006666667 0.42
138 29 0.08 0.42 0.006666667 0.42
138 28 0.08 0.44 0 0.43
138 27 0.08 0.46 0 0.45
137 27 0.086666667 0.46 0.006666667 0.46
137 26 0.086666667 0.48 0 0.47
137 25 0.086666667 0.5 0 0.49
136 25 0.093333333 0.5 0.006666667 0.5
136 24 0.093333333 0.52 0 0.51
136 23 0.093333333 0.54 0 0.53
135 23 0.1 0.54 0.006666667 0.54
134 23 0.106666667 0.54 0.006666667 0.54
133 23 0.113333333 0.54 0.006666667 0.54
132 23 0.12 0.54 0.006666667 0.54
132 22 0.12 0.56 0 0.55
132 21 0.12 0.58 0 0.57
131 21 0.126666667 0.58 0.006666667 0.58
131 20 0.126666667 0.6 0 0.59
130 20 0.133333333 0.6 0.006666667 0.6
130 19 0.133333333 0.62 0 0.61
129 19 0.14 0.62 0.006666667 0.62
128 19 0.146666667 0.62 0.006666667 0.62
127 19 0.153333333 0.62 0.006666667 0.62
126 19 0.16 0.62 0.006666667 0.62
126 18 0.16 0.64 0 0.63
126 17 0.16 0.66 0 0.65
125 17 0.166666667 0.66 0.006666667 0.66
125 16 0.166666667 0.68 0 0.67
125 15 0.166666667 0.7 0 0.69
125 14 0.166666667 0.72 0 0.71
124 14 0.173333333 0.72 0.006666667 0.72
123 14 0.18 0.72 0.006666667 0.72
122 14 0.186666667 0.72 0.006666667 0.72
121 14 0.193333333 0.72 0.006666667 0.72
120 14 0.2 0.72 0.006666667 0.72
119 14 0.206666667 0.72 0.006666667 0.72
118 14 0.213333333 0.72 0.006666667 0.72
118 13 0.213333333 0.74 0 0.73
117 13 0.22 0.74 0.006666667 0.74
116 13 0.226666667 0.74 0.006666667 0.74
115 13 0.233333333 0.74 0.006666667 0.74
114 13 0.24 0.74 0.006666667 0.74
114 12 0.24 0.76 0 0.75
114 11 0.24 0.78 0 0.77
113 11 0.246666667 0.78 0.006666667 0.78
112 11 0.253333333 0.78 0.006666667 0.78
112 10 0.253333333 0.8 0 0.79
111 10 0.26 0.8 0.006666667 0.8
110 10 0.266666667 0.8 0.006666667 0.8
110 9 0.266666667 0.82 0 0.81
109 9 0.273333333 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
108 9 0.28 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
107 9 0.286666667 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
106 9 0.293333333 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
105 9 0.3 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
105 8 0.3 0.84 0 0.83
105 7 0.3 0.86 0 0.85
104 7 0.306666667 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
103 7 0.313333333 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
102 7 0.32 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
101 7 0.326666667 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
100 7 0.333333333 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
99 7 0.34 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
98 7 0.346666667 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
97 7 0.353333333 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
96 7 0.36 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
95 7 0.366666667 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
94 7 0.373333333 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
93 7 0.38 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
93 6 0.38 0.88 0 0.87
92 6 0.386666667 0.88 0.006666667 0.88
91 6 0.393333333 0.88 0.006666667 0.88
90 6 0.4 0.88 0.006666667 0.88
89 6 0.406666667 0.88 0.006666667 0.88
89 5 0.406666667 0.9 0 0.89
88 5 0.413333333 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
87 5 0.42 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
86 5 0.426666667 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
86 4 0.426666667 0.92 0 0.91
85 4 0.433333333 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
84 4 0.44 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
83 4 0.446666667 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
82 4 0.453333333 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
81 4 0.46 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
80 4 0.466666667 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
79 4 0.473333333 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
78 4 0.48 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
77 4 0.486666667 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
76 4 0.493333333 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
75 4 0.5 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
74 4 0.506666667 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
73 4 0.513333333 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
72 4 0.52 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
71 4 0.526666667 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
71 3 0.526666667 0.94 0 0.93
70 3 0.533333333 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
69 3 0.54 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
68 3 0.546666667 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
67 3 0.553333333 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
67 2 0.553333333 0.96 0 0.95
66 2 0.56 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
65 2 0.566666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
64 2 0.573333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
63 2 0.58 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
62 2 0.586666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
61 2 0.593333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
60 2 0.6 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
59 2 0.606666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
58 2 0.613333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
57 2 0.62 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
56 2 0.626666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
55 2 0.633333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
54 2 0.64 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
53 2 0.646666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
52 2 0.653333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
51 2 0.66 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
50 2 0.666666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
49 2 0.673333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
48 2 0.68 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
47 2 0.686666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
46 2 0.693333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
45 2 0.7 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
44 2 0.706666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
43 2 0.713333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
42 2 0.72 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
41 2 0.726666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
40 2 0.733333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
39 2 0.74 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
39 1 0.74 0.98 0 0.97
38 1 0.746666667 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
37 1 0.753333333 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
37 0 0.753333333 1 0 0.99
36 0 0.76 1 0.006666667 1
35 0 0.766666667 1 0.006666667 1
34 0 0.773333333 1 0.006666667 1
33 0 0.78 1 0.006666667 1
32 0 0.786666667 1 0.006666667 1
31 0 0.793333333 1 0.006666667 1
30 0 0.8 1 0.006666667 1
29 0 0.806666667 1 0.006666667 1
28 0 0.813333333 1 0.006666667 1
27 0 0.82 1 0.006666667 1
26 0 0.826666667 1 0.006666667 1
25 0 0.833333333 1 0.006666667 1
24 0 0.84 1 0.006666667 1
23 0 0.846666667 1 0.006666667 1
22 0 0.853333333 1 0.006666667 1
21 0 0.86 1 0.006666667 1
20 0 0.866666667 1 0.006666667 1
19 0 0.873333333 1 0.006666667 1
18 0 0.88 1 0.006666667 1
17 0 0.886666667 1 0.006666667 1
16 0 0.893333333 1 0.006666667 1
15 0 0.9 1 0.006666667 1
14 0 0.906666667 1 0.006666667 1
13 0 0.913333333 1 0.006666667 1
12 0 0.92 1 0.006666667 1
11 0 0.926666667 1 0.006666667 1
10 0 0.933333333 1 0.006666667 1
9 0 0.94 1 0.006666667 1
8 0 0.946666667 1 0.006666667 1
7 0 0.953333333 1 0.006666667 1
6 0 0.96 1 0.006666667 1
5 0 0.966666667 1 0.006666667 1
4 0 0.973333333 1 0.006666667 1
3 0 0.98 1 0.006666667 1
2 0 0.986666667 1 0.006666667 1
1 0 0.993333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0 1 1 0.006666667 1
average profits per applicant when using no model
1775
Sum
0.8432
1
f(x) = 0.7490232082x + 0.4477820292
R² = 0.7325283083
Rectangle
0.9
0
0
0 0.8
0
0
0 0.7
0
0
0 0.6
0.0012
0.0012
0.5
0
0
0 0.4
0.0016
0
0 0.3
0.001866667
0
0.2
0
0.002133333
0.1
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0
0.3
0.2
0.002133333 0.1
0
0
0.0024 0
0.0024 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0
0.0024
0
0
0.002666667
0
0.0028
0.0028
0
0
0.003066667
0
0
0.003333333
0
0
0.0036
0.0036
0.0036
0.0036
0
0
0.003866667
0
0.004
0
0.004133333
0.004133333
0.004133333
0.004133333
0
0
0.0044
0
0
0
0.0048
0.0048
0.0048
0.0048
0.0048
0.0048
0.0048
0
0.004933333
0.004933333
0.004933333
0.004933333
0
0
0.0052
0.0052
0
0.005333333
0.005333333
0
0.005466667
0.005466667
0.005466667
0.005466667
0.005466667
0
0
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0
0.005866667
0.005866667
0.005866667
0.005866667
0
0.006
0.006
0.006
0
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0.006133333
0
0.006266667
0.006266667
0.006266667
0.006266667
0
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0
0.006533333
0.006533333
0
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
-4900
+ -
+ tp - didn’t , unproffn - did unprofitable
_ fp - didn’t profitabtn - did profitable
4000
AUC
TN
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
149
148
AUC 148
Power (AUC) 148
Linear (AUC) 148
147
147
147
146
146
146
145
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

144
144
144
143
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 142
141
141
141
140
140
139
138
138
138
137
137
137
136
136
136
135
134
133
132
132
132
131
131
130
130
129
128
127
126
126
126
125
125
125
125
124
123
122
121
120
119
118
118
117
116
115
114
114
114
113
112
112
111
110
110
109
108
107
106
105
105
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
93
92
91
90
89
89
88
87
86
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
71
70
69
68
67
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
39
38
37
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-4900 4000
loss per defaulter profit per non defaulter
max profit per Threshold for

max overall event max
431400 2157 0.342932791
so give card to ppl with scor
profit from
non profit per max profit
FN Loss from defaulters defaulters Total profit applicant threshold
49 -240100 600000 359900 1799.5
48 -235200 600000 364800 1824
47 -230300 600000 369700 1848.5
46 -225400 600000 374600 1873
45 -220500 600000 379500 1897.5
44 -215600 600000 384400 1922
43 -210700 600000 389300 1946.5
42 -205800 600000 394200 1971
41 -200900 600000 399100 1995.5
41 -200900 596000 395100 1975.5
41 -200900 592000 391100 1955.5
40 -196000 592000 396000 1980
39 -191100 592000 400900 2004.5
38 -186200 592000 405800 2029
38 -186200 588000 401800 2009
37 -181300 588000 406700 2033.5
36 -176400 588000 411600 2058
36 -176400 584000 407600 2038
35 -171500 584000 412500 2062.5
34 -166600 584000 417400 2087
34 -166600 580000 413400 2067
34 -166600 576000 409400 2047
33 -161700 576000 414300 2071.5
32 -156800 576000 419200 2096
32 -156800 572000 415200 2076
32 -156800 568000 411200 2056
32 -156800 564000 407200 2036
31 -151900 564000 412100 2060.5
30 -147000 564000 417000 2085
30 -147000 560000 413000 2065
29 -142100 560000 417900 2089.5
29 -142100 556000 413900 2069.5
29 -142100 552000 409900 2049.5
28 -137200 552000 414800 2074
27 -132300 552000 419700 2098.5
27 -132300 548000 415700 2078.5
26 -127400 548000 420600 2103
25 -122500 548000 425500 2127.5
25 -122500 544000 421500 2107.5
24 -117600 544000 426400 2132
23 -112700 544000 431300 2156.5
23 -112700 540000 427300 2136.5
23 -112700 536000 423300 2116.5
23 -112700 532000 419300 2096.5
23 -112700 528000 415300 2076.5
22 -107800 528000 420200 2101
21 -102900 528000 425100 2125.5
21 -102900 524000 421100 2105.5
20 -98000 524000 426000 2130
20 -98000 520000 422000 2110
19 -93100 520000 426900 2134.5
19 -93100 516000 422900 2114.5
19 -93100 512000 418900 2094.5
19 -93100 508000 414900 2074.5
19 -93100 504000 410900 2054.5
18 -88200 504000 415800 2079
17 -83300 504000 420700 2103.5
17 -83300 500000 416700 2083.5
16 -78400 500000 421600 2108
15 -73500 500000 426500 2132.5
14 -68600 500000 431400 2157 0.342932791
14 -68600 496000 427400 2137
14 -68600 492000 423400 2117
14 -68600 488000 419400 2097
14 -68600 484000 415400 2077
14 -68600 480000 411400 2057
14 -68600 476000 407400 2037
14 -68600 472000 403400 2017
13 -63700 472000 408300 2041.5
13 -63700 468000 404300 2021.5
13 -63700 464000 400300 2001.5
13 -63700 460000 396300 1981.5
13 -63700 456000 392300 1961.5
12 -58800 456000 397200 1986
11 -53900 456000 402100 2010.5
11 -53900 452000 398100 1990.5
11 -53900 448000 394100 1970.5
10 -49000 448000 399000 1995
10 -49000 444000 395000 1975
10 -49000 440000 391000 1955
9 -44100 440000 395900 1979.5
9 -44100 436000 391900 1959.5
9 -44100 432000 387900 1939.5
9 -44100 428000 383900 1919.5
9 -44100 424000 379900 1899.5
9 -44100 420000 375900 1879.5
8 -39200 420000 380800 1904
7 -34300 420000 385700 1928.5
7 -34300 416000 381700 1908.5
7 -34300 412000 377700 1888.5
7 -34300 408000 373700 1868.5
7 -34300 404000 369700 1848.5
7 -34300 400000 365700 1828.5
7 -34300 396000 361700 1808.5
7 -34300 392000 357700 1788.5
7 -34300 388000 353700 1768.5
7 -34300 384000 349700 1748.5
7 -34300 380000 345700 1728.5
7 -34300 376000 341700 1708.5
7 -34300 372000 337700 1688.5
6 -29400 372000 342600 1713
6 -29400 368000 338600 1693
6 -29400 364000 334600 1673
6 -29400 360000 330600 1653
6 -29400 356000 326600 1633
5 -24500 356000 331500 1657.5
5 -24500 352000 327500 1637.5
5 -24500 348000 323500 1617.5
5 -24500 344000 319500 1597.5
4 -19600 344000 324400 1622
4 -19600 340000 320400 1602
4 -19600 336000 316400 1582
4 -19600 332000 312400 1562
4 -19600 328000 308400 1542
4 -19600 324000 304400 1522
4 -19600 320000 300400 1502
4 -19600 316000 296400 1482
4 -19600 312000 292400 1462
4 -19600 308000 288400 1442
4 -19600 304000 284400 1422
4 -19600 300000 280400 1402
4 -19600 296000 276400 1382
4 -19600 292000 272400 1362
4 -19600 288000 268400 1342
4 -19600 284000 264400 1322
3 -14700 284000 269300 1346.5
3 -14700 280000 265300 1326.5
3 -14700 276000 261300 1306.5
3 -14700 272000 257300 1286.5
3 -14700 268000 253300 1266.5
2 -9800 268000 258200 1291
2 -9800 264000 254200 1271
2 -9800 260000 250200 1251
2 -9800 256000 246200 1231
2 -9800 252000 242200 1211
2 -9800 248000 238200 1191
2 -9800 244000 234200 1171
2 -9800 240000 230200 1151
2 -9800 236000 226200 1131
2 -9800 232000 222200 1111
2 -9800 228000 218200 1091
2 -9800 224000 214200 1071
2 -9800 220000 210200 1051
2 -9800 216000 206200 1031
2 -9800 212000 202200 1011
2 -9800 208000 198200 991
2 -9800 204000 194200 971
2 -9800 200000 190200 951
2 -9800 196000 186200 931
2 -9800 192000 182200 911
2 -9800 188000 178200 891
2 -9800 184000 174200 871
2 -9800 180000 170200 851
2 -9800 176000 166200 831
2 -9800 172000 162200 811
2 -9800 168000 158200 791
2 -9800 164000 154200 771
2 -9800 160000 150200 751
2 -9800 156000 146200 731
1 -4900 156000 151100 755.5
1 -4900 152000 147100 735.5
1 -4900 148000 143100 715.5
0 0 148000 148000 740
0 0 144000 144000 720
0 0 140000 140000 700
0 0 136000 136000 680
0 0 132000 132000 660
0 0 128000 128000 640
0 0 124000 124000 620
0 0 120000 120000 600
0 0 116000 116000 580
0 0 112000 112000 560
0 0 108000 108000 540
0 0 104000 104000 520
0 0 100000 100000 500
0 0 96000 96000 480
0 0 92000 92000 460
0 0 88000 88000 440
0 0 84000 84000 420
0 0 80000 80000 400
0 0 76000 76000 380
0 0 72000 72000 360
0 0 68000 68000 340
0 0 64000 64000 320
0 0 60000 60000 300
0 0 56000 56000 280
0 0 52000 52000 260
0 0 48000 48000 240
0 0 44000 44000 220
0 0 40000 40000 200
0 0 36000 36000 180
0 0 32000 32000 160
0 0 28000 28000 140
0 0 24000 24000 120
0 0 20000 20000 100
0 0 16000 16000 80
0 0 12000 12000 60
0 0 8000 8000 40
0 0 4000 4000 20
0 0 0 0 0
give card to ppl with score less than 0.34
Automobile DeCredit Card Debt Income
-0.074627683 -0.1863839933 -0.0835041673
Linest 0.036848653 0.0395004791 0.0465689335
Function 0.260095394 0.3791620343 #N/A
11.30740611 193 #N/A
9.753577293 27.7464227065 #N/A
Standardized Data
Unique Applicant ID Age Years at Employer Years at Address
201 -0.06 0.23 -0.58

Years at Addre Years at Employer Age Outcomes: Default = 1
0.032318966 -0.1871656758 -0.0228121971 0.25
0.027055993 0.0365622573 0.0325118531 0.0268108046
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Income Credit Card Debt Automobile Debt Outcomes: De

connector
model predicts
this applicant
-0.38 0.14 -0.06 to be profitable 201
Pred. scores
0.1996911117
less than 0.34
Score using values provided in Answers

0.1981
Instructions: Enter a, c, and e
Confusion Matrix
Test Classification Y
"Positive"
0.305 c
Condition X "+" 0.25 a 0.18 e
"-" 0.75 b 0.125 g
Individual Probabilities Name

P("+") a Incidence of Condition "+"
p("-") b Incidence of "Condition "-"
p(Test POS) c Classification Incidence "POS"
p(Test NEG) d Classification Incidence "NEG"
p(Test POS, "+") e True Positives
p(Test NEG, "+") f False Negatives
p(Test "POS, "-") g False Positives
p(Test "NEG", "-") h True Negatives
Probability Distributions Name

P(X) p(a,b) Marginal Probability of the C
P(Y) p(c,d) Marginal Probability of the C
p(X,Y) p(e,f,g,h) Joint Distribution of X and Y
P(X)p(Y) p(ac,ad,bc,bd) Product Distribution of X and
Definition of Independence P(X,Y) = P(X)p(Y)
X, Y Independent or Dependent?
Dependent
Conditional Probabilities Name

p(Test POS | "+") e/a 0.72 True Positive Rate
p(Test NEG | "+") f/a 0.28 False Negative Rate
p(Test POS | "-") g/b 0.17 False Positive Rate
p(Test NEG | "-") h/b 0.83 True Negative Rate
p("+" | Test POS) e/c 0.59 Positive Predictive Value (PPV

p( "-" | Test POS) g/c 0.41 1- PPV
p("+" | Test NEG) f/d 0.10 1- NPV
p("-" | Test NEG) h/d 0.90 Negative Predictive Value (NP
Copyright Daniel Egger/ Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

cation Y
"Negative"
0.695 d
0.07 f
0.625 h
robability of the Condition

robability of the Classification
bution of X and Y 0.18 e 0.07
stribution of X and Y 0.07625 ac 0.17
Point on ROC Curve FP Rate = x axis
0.17
edictive Value (PPV)
redictive Value (NPV)
(CC BY 4.0)
f 0.13 g 0.63 h
ad 0.23 bc 0.52 bd
TP Rate = y axis
0.72
Instructions: Create any confusion matrix by inputting values for cells labelle
Confusion Matrix
Condition X "+" 0.25 a

real condition
"-" 0.75 b
Individual Probabilities Name

P("+") a Incidence of Condition "+"
p("-") b Incidence of "Condition "-"
p(Test POS) c Classification Incidence "POS"
p(Test NEG) d Classification Incidence "NEG"
p(Test POS, "+") e True Positives
p(Test NEG, "+") f False Negatives
p(Test "POS, "-") g False Positives
p(Test "NEG", "-") h True Negatives
Probability Distributions
P(X) p(a,b)
P(Y) p(c,d)
p(X,Y) p(e,f,g,h)
P(X)p(Y) p(ac,ad,bc,bd)
Definition of Independence P(X,Y) = P(X)p(Y)
X, Y Independent or Dependent?
Dependent
Conditional Probabilities
p(Test POS | "+") e/a 0.72
p(Test NEG | "+") f/a 0.28
p(Test POS | "-") g/b 0.17
p(Test NEG | "-") h/b 0.83
p("+" | Test POS) e/c 0.59

p( "-" | Test POS) g/c 0.41
p("+" | Test NEG) f/d 0.10
p("-" | Test NEG) h/d 0.90
"Relative Entropy" of p and q, written D(p||q)

is the summation of all p(i)*log(p(i)/qIi)
It is also called "Kullback-Leibler Divergence" (or "KL Divergence" for sh
The Relative Entropy of the Joint distribution p [row 28] and the produ
[Note that this definition is not required for Course - advanced topic]
ng values for cells labelled a, c, and e.
Test Classification Y
my model bases on Linest
"Positive" "Negative"
0.305 c 0.695 d
0.18 e 0.07 f
0.125 g 0.625 h
nce of Condition "+" H(X)

nce of "Condition "-" 0.8113
fication Incidence "POS"
fication Incidence "NEG"
H(Y)
Negatives 0.8873
Negatives
Name H(X,Y)
Probability of the Condition 1.5127
Probability of the Classification
Joint Distribution of X and Y 0.18
Product Distribution of X and Y 0.07625
Mutual Information I(X:Y) = Re
= e*log(e/ac)
Name 0.1859
True Positive Rate
False Negative Rate
False Positive Rate H(Y|X)
True Negative Rate
0.7014
Positive Predictive Value (PPV)
1- PPV
1- NPV H(X|Y)
Negative Predictive Value (NPV)
0.6253
or "KL Divergence" for short)

p [row 28] and the product distribution q [row 29] is the mutual information [cell L35]
ourse - advanced topic]
The spreadsheet outputs entropy (information) measures for all relevant distributions
Percentage Information Gain (P.I.G.)

A correlation measure defined as mutual information between X and Y
divided by the entropy of the Condition X
I(X;Y) 0.1859 bits
divided by
H(X) 0.8113 bits
equals
22.92%
Average reduction in uncertainty of one outcome in X upon learning on
= a*log(1/a) + b*log(1/b) I(X;Y) = H(X)

0.5000 0.3113 0.1859 0.8113
I(X;Y) = H(Y)
= c*log(1/c) + d*log(1/d) 0.1859 0.8873
0.5225 0.3648
I(X;Y) = H(X)
0.1859 0.8113
= e*log(1/e) + f*log(1/f) + g*Log(1/g) + h*log(1/h)

0.4453 0.2686 0.3750 0.4238
e 0.07 f 0.13 g
ac 0.17 ad 0.23 bc
Information I(X:Y) = Relative Entropy of Joint and Product Distributions --- D(p(X,Y||p(X)p(Y))
0.2230537795 + f*log(f/ad) -0.0918110305 + g*log(g/bc) -0.10898
= (a *H(e/a, f/a)) + (b *H(g/b, h/b)

0.2500 0.8555 0.7500 0.6500
= (c *H(e/c, g/c) + (d *H(f/d, h/d)

0.3050 0.9764 0.6950 0.4713
on [cell L35]
levant distributions.
on between X and Y
X upon learning one outcome in Y
- H(X|Y)
0.6253
- H(Y|X)
0.7014
+ H(Y) - H(X,Y)
0.8873 1.5127
0.63 h
0.52 bd
p(X,Y||p(X)p(Y))
+ h*log(h/bd) 0.163675
H(g/b, h/b)
H(f/d, h/d)
Copyright Daniel Egger/ Attribution 4.0 Inte
Venn diagram courtesy of Konrad Voelkel - Wikipedia: https://en
ution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
ikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_diagram
Test Set of Second 200 Applicants
Raw Data
201 25.92 0.35
202 27.80 4.47
203 37.33 9.30
204 28.00 8.43
205 39.24 5.40
206 30.67 7.81
207 36.13 0.20
208 28.88 4.30
209 35.01 9.82
210 43.38 10.25
211 34.41 10.46
212 32.45 1.14
213 38.78 13.63
214 29.14 10.58
215 42.00 4.60
216 36.86 15.14
217 38.33 12.22
218 27.54 5.38
219 30.22 1.35
220 24.24 5.91
221 42.37 19.71
222 30.48 9.23
223 26.47 2.27
224 30.16 13.79
225 16.67 0.02
226 41.89 6.61
227 41.88 22.25
228 42.35 12.14
229 40.49 17.78
230 24.03 2.30
231 49.28 30.50
232 34.36 6.58
233 48.59 22.96
234 44.67 13.92
235 44.51 19.27
236 39.81 3.48
237 18.19 0.21
238 34.44 9.43
239 27.04 2.24
240 31.87 14.53
241 48.07 22.90
242 30.13 5.36
243 39.76 8.23
244 49.03 15.38
245 47.29 6.75
246 26.95 3.05
247 24.91 7.41
248 33.15 2.62
249 22.74 2.95
250 33.12 0.84
251 19.98 1.47
252 25.55 2.12
253 41.47 18.07
254 28.86 0.66
255 34.99 0.69
256 30.33 5.50
257 39.73 9.62
258 20.93 3.05
259 35.72 2.51
260 32.47 14.76
261 31.49 13.87
262 47.14 2.43
263 28.94 4.65
264 34.56 13.89
265 39.92 13.19
266 34.70 16.66
267 33.83 9.69
268 35.07 7.84
269 32.38 1.68
270 45.64 16.93
271 23.64 3.67
272 28.76 7.64
273 25.47 3.08
274 29.88 2.43
275 23.68 3.32
276 28.01 7.17
277 41.87 7.50
278 49.48 8.71
279 32.19 3.46
280 36.41 0.87
281 45.19 8.43
282 34.81 17.99
283 44.97 17.07
284 31.76 14.69
285 34.69 5.51
286 28.49 9.17
287 25.62 2.77
288 34.33 9.28
289 37.80 0.14
290 27.85 5.72
291 17.01 0.67
292 39.68 20.88
293 34.75 8.69
294 26.08 2.38
295 42.04 7.53
296 36.86 15.02
297 37.65 15.01
298 32.68 12.32
299 37.33 23.03
300 32.18 5.45
301 47.49 1.56
302 26.64 2.62
303 23.36 1.50
304 43.93 6.98
305 33.61 11.65
306 52.28 1.28
307 43.88 17.05
308 38.30 16.62
309 35.98 9.85
310 28.72 10.61
311 45.33 1.49
312 25.78 1.22
313 40.11 7.25
314 22.21 7.11
315 30.43 2.40
316 25.50 6.44
317 36.18 5.34
318 45.42 23.10
319 34.73 13.66
320 22.78 0.17
321 31.15 11.09
322 42.00 32.64
323 38.50 14.25
324 48.83 18.39
325 47.26 22.77
326 46.35 11.24
327 19.99 5.82
328 35.88 14.32
329 36.80 8.82
330 30.08 11.45
331 44.28 18.08
332 44.11 27.77
333 28.15 9.86
334 18.92 0.26
335 38.69 13.82
336 31.92 1.87
337 31.93 6.35
338 32.84 10.64
339 28.82 5.36
340 59.20 18.40
341 23.55 6.20
342 23.47 0.05
343 37.31 4.49
344 41.45 10.06
345 29.50 1.81
346 30.75 5.33
347 38.15 6.61
348 37.32 14.80
349 30.73 4.18
350 19.22 0.47
351 30.12 10.74
352 40.83 9.13
353 26.76 3.13
354 48.78 10.30
355 30.63 6.60
356 37.22 2.82
357 36.18 20.89
358 28.14 0.88
359 39.06 5.52
360 37.46 6.55
361 35.88 11.05
362 34.46 2.76
363 40.93 25.45
364 32.38 9.58
365 48.70 23.33
366 30.58 3.75
367 30.88 0.26
368 50.31 15.57
369 41.90 2.53
370 28.94 1.10
371 29.35 14.10
372 29.18 2.14
373 26.21 0.73
374 27.55 12.06
375 43.06 4.69
376 23.48 4.40
377 53.54 14.04
378 23.21 1.02
379 44.71 22.82
380 39.96 11.88
381 27.13 0.32
382 45.85 2.56
383 30.38 7.74
384 38.77 22.30
385 35.90 18.83
386 32.75 0.62
387 37.26 10.72
388 43.72 13.61
389 56.21 12.49
390 45.36 16.63
391 29.01 7.56
392 25.60 3.32
393 34.51 1.73
394 44.62 22.76
395 38.84 15.15
396 49.66 16.02
397 23.78 2.97
398 32.84 3.97
399 43.89 13.97
400 41.33 6.56
mean 34.92 8.90

0.24 $12,181 -$2,057 -$3,696
0.37 $38,536 -$6,970 -$3,018
0.02 $30,602 -$2,892 -$1,674
1.06 $15,588 -$38 -$1,758
0.74 $27,599 -$776 -$4,374
2.47 $16,575 -$833 -$3,200
0.95 $30,115 -$245 $1,215
0.21 $39,699 -$504 -$2,298
1.67 $30,621 -$831 -$2,706
0.57 $54,601 -$1,861 -$4,449
0.48 $32,727 -$2,379 -$6,656
0.83 $20,581 -$120 -$3,642
0.95 $43,637 -$665 -$217
0.70 $54,917 -$9,304 -$10,579
0.53 $37,702 -$3,196 -$8,647
1.23 $41,991 -$466 -$258
1.18 $62,889 -$3,391 -$4,983
0.13 $27,477 -$581 -$4,857
0.37 $25,277 -$1,109 -$3,673
1.21 $44,922 -$12,089 -$11,256
0.12 $65,417 -$3,026 -$6,582
1.12 $58,409 -$12,006 -$12,116
0.72 $19,708 -$577 -$1,627
1.05 $36,702 -$579 -$1,392
0.66 $19,836 -$168 -$2,317
1.15 $18,651 -$820 -$4,042
2.18 $122,142 -$2,690 -$3,535
0.95 $81,970 -$2,520 -$2,698
0.87 $177,437 -$22,722 -$10,576
0.53 $26,688 -$1,800 -$1,898
0.55 $100,877 -$3,766 -$10,456
3.07 $31,822 -$241 -$8,407
1.16 $81,549 -$586 -$11,416
0.41 $55,271 -$3,110 -$14,360
0.39 $94,642 -$4,417 -$9,770
0.48 $23,456 -$1,415 -$3,746
0.43 $16,186 -$1,716 -$4,128
0.74 $42,971 -$1,771 -$8,394
0.16 $10,966 -$1,662 -$2,910
0.18 $38,346 -$314 -$3,390
1.39 $140,039 -$6,669 -$26,622
0.28 $23,222 -$207 -$962
1.75 $33,102 -$1,212 $589
0.45 $225,132 -$31,439 -$47,021
1.29 $32,693 -$3,880 -$3,487
1.94 $42,342 -$11,771 -$8,483
0.55 $19,124 -$740 -$2,415
0.87 $26,733 -$3,685 -$3,301
0.15 $34,396 -$666 -$11,683
0.33 $28,570 -$3,395 -$3,842
0.68 $15,304 -$140 -$2,862
0.96 $12,670 -$1,331 -$1,439
2.25 $72,444 -$13,029 -$9,880
1.03 $17,438 -$673 -$609
0.71 $31,937 -$2,756 -$4,146
1.39 $23,034 -$483 -$1,782
0.23 $37,849 -$5,312 -$4,687
1.21 $22,989 -$659 -$532
1.13 $30,095 -$624 -$5,566
0.00 $29,222 -$983 -$2,055
0.25 $53,946 -$5,357 -$18,444
2.52 $31,928 -$5,594 -$8,242
0.55 $37,255 -$6,297 -$11,865
0.97 $77,486 -$3,489 -$8,333
0.24 $101,665 -$12,450 -$25,526
1.80 $54,845 -$1,610 -$4,500
0.26 $58,632 -$6,353 -$11,291
0.93 $26,497 -$964 -$1,309
0.13 $38,102 -$1,226 -$1,649
0.29 $77,523 -$8,984 -$10,935
0.79 $19,567 -$681 -$3,838
0.46 $24,633 -$1,016 -$3,727
0.25 $16,515 -$2,573 -$6,719
0.90 $16,495 -$266 $1,127
0.58 $35,399 -$334 -$2,881
0.55 $21,383 -$1,388 -$3,139
0.55 $43,723 -$1,306 -$1,129
0.27 $68,045 -$2,566 -$11,141
1.56 $54,010 -$394 -$1,573
0.70 $24,453 -$738 -$2,565
0.25 $69,448 -$1,557 -$7,388
0.13 $52,717 -$1,727 -$10,154
1.36 $30,033 -$4,352 -$9,669
1.18 $27,609 -$387 -$1,071
0.60 $29,259 -$2,330 -$5,089
1.03 $31,946 -$1,897 -$2,349
0.09 $38,753 -$1,647 -$2,679
1.84 $33,108 -$112 -$1,513
1.21 $26,062 -$472 -$3,532
0.49 $59,484 -$4,055 -$18,061
0.72 $18,195 -$1,001 -$2,136
1.30 $75,202 -$13,974 -$17,537
1.78 $45,688 -$2,364 -$5,004
0.95 $22,707 -$1,541 $361
0.45 $22,080 -$401 -$1,754
0.70 $40,213 -$5,712 -$8,997
0.63 $35,803 -$900 -$3,194
0.26 $39,621 -$335 -$1,878
0.70 $94,114 -$1,187 -$24,603
2.01 $55,883 -$884 -$2,477
0.16 $31,969 -$944 -$987
2.30 $24,192 -$758 -$1,265
0.51 $45,733 -$1,897 -$1,583
0.45 $29,017 -$2,068 -$7,051
0.69 $41,204 -$3,102 -$5,431
0.23 $21,336 -$60 -$1,374
1.15 $77,605 -$1,809 -$6,143
0.40 $90,963 -$326 $526
0.45 $30,317 -$32 -$1,586
1.02 $27,053 $18 $119
1.20 $19,030 -$2,925 -$2,597
2.01 $19,359 -$268 $501
0.51 $61,050 -$8,079 -$17,483
0.08 $32,151 -$1,062 -$2,443
0.13 $23,164 -$827 -$3,204
1.05 $25,686 -$665 -$2,279
1.83 $30,213 -$3,694 -$6,361
0.66 $106,131 -$7,420 -$10,170
0.31 $55,466 -$790 -$365
1.42 $24,004 -$735 -$2,055
0.04 $47,486 -$5,786 -$5,960
0.62 $135,739 -$28,424 -$33,439
0.24 $28,179 -$1,161 -$3,524
0.40 $159,471 -$2,001 -$7,777
0.75 $78,772 -$3,113 -$6,375
1.54 $53,444 -$1,318 -$13,743
0.77 $31,316 -$1,258 -$2,935
1.30 $37,658 -$2,163 -$11,673
0.29 $29,432 -$1,401 -$2,951
1.27 $22,685 -$33 -$423
1.88 $45,551 -$1,123 -$2,546
0.40 $73,705 -$8,806 -$6,160
0.24 $38,970 -$4,145 -$4,004
0.10 $35,812 -$1,545 -$6,057
0.03 $45,549 -$5,726 -$6,517
0.60 $30,809 -$2,953 -$9,666
0.70 $30,535 -$5,067 -$4,062
0.79 $26,949 -$786 -$522
1.45 $75,578 -$6,243 -$23,220
0.77 $77,925 -$8,883 -$15,817
0.07 $19,433 -$1,545 -$2,135
0.81 $16,046 -$373 -$2,355
0.73 $31,273 -$2,728 -$10,612
1.55 $34,536 -$1,382 -$4,515
0.51 $36,932 -$3,148 -$8,909
0.90 $33,180 -$6,569 -$7,792
1.71 $65,964 -$1,932 -$15,638
0.21 $90,365 -$4,704 -$42,456
0.08 $30,434 -$4,922 -$8,632
0.69 $26,732 -$3,140 -$127
0.66 $31,905 -$2,744 -$1,409
0.19 $29,373 -$330 -$4,321
0.45 $22,083 -$588 $446
1.86 $31,598 -$1,124 -$2,421
0.72 $16,402 -$32 -$941
0.47 $28,101 -$547 -$2,219
0.16 $55,182 -$2,325 -$758
0.93 $27,325 -$4,517 -$13,525
1.38 $24,032 -$1,828 -$3,338
0.43 $59,164 -$1,661 -$2,733
0.65 $89,666 -$5,493 -$25,329
0.51 $38,271 -$2,167 -$8,003
0.55 $246,981 -$3,320 -$10,467
0.42 $31,816 -$2,717 -$4,728
0.99 $67,103 -$7,936 -$5,607
0.85 $52,642 -$4,373 -$2,764
0.17 $22,260 -$809 $138
0.44 $62,267 -$3,663 -$6,063
0.57 $27,757 -$2,936 -$1,667
0.74 $16,520 -$2,139 -$3,523
0.10 $42,473 -$2,903 -$2,887
1.95 $42,566 -$948 $750
2.24 $17,692 -$654 -$3,789
1.94 $27,840 -$121 $8
0.86 $29,562 -$134 -$1,865
1.49 $22,893 -$791 -$1,472
0.89 $50,923 -$871 -$641
0.15 $15,094 -$176 -$556
1.17 $87,642 -$2,572 -$17,850
0.10 $86,131 -$10,019 -$35,982
1.91 $15,519 -$1,141 -$5,535
0.24 $42,965 -$757 -$2,554
1.23 $34,103 -$591 -$7,260
1.27 $55,033 -$1,141 -$286
0.40 $59,837 -$2,138 -$5,044
0.95 $25,931 -$298 -$2,751
1.57 $31,601 -$2,302 -$20,103
1.90 $185,557 -$4,674 -$8,334
0.45 $233,589 -$14,614 -$20,248
1.32 $59,546 -$4,848 -$13,623
0.04 $37,508 $83 -$1,555
0.47 $34,757 -$838 -$5,385
1.77 $29,833 -$5,502 -$5,496
1.10 $50,645 -$979 -$2,409
1.02 $72,908 -$2,221 $361
0.24 $70,526 -$3,100 -$13,605
0.70 $17,318 -$122 $104
0.75 $29,403 -$442 -$3,908
0.08 $43,730 -$244 -$2,535
1.41 $53,666 -$1,228 -$10,751
0.82 46664.95 -2968.19 -6239.38
0.60 36739.99 4198.46 7308.15

Standardized Data
Outcomes: Default = 1 Unique Applicant ID Age
1 201 -1.09
1 202 -0.86
0 203 0.29
0 204 -0.84
0 205 0.52
0 206 -0.51
1 207 0.15
1 208 -0.73
0 209 0.01
0 210 1.02
0 211 -0.06
0 212 -0.30
0 213 0.47
0 214 -0.70
1 215 0.86
0 216 0.24
0 217 0.41
0 218 -0.89
0 219 -0.57
1 220 -1.29
0 221 0.90
1 222 -0.54
1 223 -1.02
0 224 -0.58
0 225 -2.21
0 226 0.84
0 227 0.84
0 228 0.90
1 229 0.67
1 230 -1.32
0 231 1.74
0 232 -0.07
0 233 1.65
0 234 1.18
0 235 1.16
0 236 0.59
0 237 -2.02
0 238 -0.06
1 239 -0.95
0 240 -0.37
0 241 1.59
0 242 -0.58
0 243 0.59
1 244 1.71
0 245 1.50
1 246 -0.96
0 247 -1.21
0 248 -0.21
0 249 -1.47
1 250 -0.22
0 251 -1.81
1 252 -1.13
1 253 0.79
1 254 -0.73
1 255 0.01
0 256 -0.55
0 257 0.58
1 258 -1.69
0 259 0.10
0 260 -0.30
1 261 -0.41
0 262 1.48
0 263 -0.72
0 264 -0.04
1 265 0.61
0 266 -0.03
1 267 -0.13
0 268 0.02
0 269 -0.31
0 270 1.30
1 271 -1.36
0 272 -0.75
1 273 -1.14
0 274 -0.61
0 275 -1.36
0 276 -0.84
0 277 0.84
1 278 1.76
1 279 -0.33
0 280 0.18
0 281 1.24
0 282 -0.01
0 283 1.22
0 284 -0.38
0 285 -0.03
0 286 -0.78
0 287 -1.12
0 288 -0.07
0 289 0.35
0 290 -0.85
1 291 -2.17
0 292 0.58
0 293 -0.02
0 294 -1.07
0 295 0.86
0 296 0.23
0 297 0.33
0 298 -0.27
0 299 0.29
0 300 -0.33
0 301 1.52
0 302 -1.00
0 303 -1.40
0 304 1.09
0 305 -0.16
0 306 2.10
0 307 1.08
0 308 0.41
0 309 0.13
0 310 -0.75
1 311 1.26
0 312 -1.11
1 313 0.63
1 314 -1.54
0 315 -0.54
0 316 -1.14
0 317 0.15
0 318 1.27
0 319 -0.02
0 320 -1.47
0 321 -0.46
1 322 0.86
0 323 0.43
0 324 1.68
0 325 1.49
0 326 1.38
0 327 -1.81
0 328 0.12
0 329 0.23
0 330 -0.59
0 331 1.13
0 332 1.11
0 333 -0.82
1 334 -1.94
1 335 0.46
0 336 -0.36
1 337 -0.36
0 338 -0.25
1 339 -0.74
0 340 2.94
0 341 -1.37
0 342 -1.38
0 343 0.29
0 344 0.79
0 345 -0.66
1 346 -0.50
1 347 0.39
1 348 0.29
1 349 -0.51
0 350 -1.90
1 351 -0.58
0 352 0.72
0 353 -0.99
0 354 1.68
0 355 -0.52
0 356 0.28
0 357 0.15
1 358 -0.82
0 359 0.50
0 360 0.31
0 361 0.12
0 362 -0.05
0 363 0.73
1 364 -0.31
0 365 1.67
0 366 -0.53
1 367 -0.49
0 368 1.86
0 369 0.84
1 370 -0.72
1 371 -0.67
1 372 -0.69
1 373 -1.05
0 374 -0.89
0 375 0.98
0 376 -1.38
0 377 2.25
0 378 -1.42
0 379 1.18
1 380 0.61
1 381 -0.94
0 382 1.32
0 383 -0.55
0 384 0.47
0 385 0.12
0 386 -0.26
0 387 0.28
0 388 1.06
0 389 2.58
0 390 1.26
0 391 -0.71
0 392 -1.13
1 393 -0.05
0 394 1.17
0 395 0.47
0 396 1.78
0 397 -1.35
0 398 -0.25
0 399 1.09
0 400 0.78
-1.23 -0.98 -0.94 0.22
-0.64 -0.77 -0.22 -0.95
0.06 -1.34 -0.44 0.02
-0.07 0.40 -0.85 0.70
-0.50 -0.14 -0.52 0.52
-0.16 2.76 -0.82 0.51
-1.25 0.21 -0.45 0.65
-0.66 -1.02 -0.19 0.59
0.13 1.42 -0.44 0.51
0.20 -0.43 0.22 0.26
0.23 -0.58 -0.38 0.14
-1.12 0.01 -0.71 0.68
0.68 0.22 -0.08 0.55
0.24 -0.20 0.22 -1.51
-0.62 -0.49 -0.24 -0.05
0.90 0.68 -0.13 0.60
0.48 0.60 0.44 -0.10
-0.51 -1.15 -0.52 0.57
-1.09 -0.76 -0.58 0.44
-0.43 0.66 -0.05 -2.17
1.56 -1.17 0.51 -0.01
0.05 0.50 0.32 -2.15
-0.95 -0.18 -0.73 0.57
0.71 0.38 -0.27 0.57
-1.28 -0.27 -0.73 0.67
-0.33 0.55 -0.76 0.51
1.92 2.27 2.05 0.07
0.47 0.22 0.96 0.11
1.28 0.07 3.56 -4.70
-0.95 -0.50 -0.54 0.28
3.11 -0.46 1.48 -0.19
-0.33 3.77 -0.40 0.65
2.03 0.57 0.95 0.57
0.72 -0.69 0.23 -0.03
1.49 -0.73 1.31 -0.34
-0.78 -0.57 -0.63 0.37
-1.25 -0.66 -0.83 0.30
0.08 -0.14 -0.10 0.29
-0.96 -1.12 -0.97 0.31
0.81 -1.08 -0.23 0.63
2.02 0.95 2.54 -0.88
-0.51 -0.91 -0.64 0.66
-0.10 1.56 -0.37 0.42
0.93 -0.63 4.86 -6.78
-0.31 0.78 -0.38 -0.22
-0.84 1.87 -0.12 -2.10
-0.21 -0.45 -0.75 0.53
-0.90 0.08 -0.54 -0.17
-0.86 -1.12 -0.33 0.55
-1.16 -0.83 -0.49 -0.10
-1.07 -0.24 -0.85 0.67
-0.98 0.22 -0.93 0.39
1.32 2.38 0.70 -2.40
-1.19 0.35 -0.80 0.55
-1.18 -0.19 -0.40 0.05
-0.49 0.96 -0.64 0.59
0.10 -1.00 -0.24 -0.56
-0.84 0.65 -0.64 0.55
-0.92 0.52 -0.45 0.56
0.85 -1.38 -0.47 0.47
0.72 -0.95 0.20 -0.57
-0.93 2.85 -0.40 -0.63
-0.61 -0.46 -0.26 -0.79
0.72 0.25 0.84 -0.12
0.62 -0.97 1.50 -2.26
1.12 1.65 0.22 0.32
0.11 -0.94 0.33 -0.81
-0.15 0.19 -0.55 0.48
-1.04 -1.17 -0.23 0.41
1.16 -0.88 0.84 -1.43
-0.75 -0.05 -0.74 0.54
-0.18 -0.60 -0.60 0.47
-0.84 -0.97 -0.82 0.09
-0.93 0.13 -0.82 0.64
-0.80 -0.40 -0.31 0.63
-0.25 -0.46 -0.69 0.38
-0.20 -0.46 -0.08 0.40
-0.03 -0.93 0.58 0.10
-0.78 1.24 0.20 0.61
-1.16 -0.21 -0.60 0.53
-0.07 -0.95 0.62 0.34
1.31 -1.16 0.16 0.30
1.18 0.90 -0.45 -0.33
0.83 0.60 -0.52 0.61
-0.49 -0.37 -0.47 0.15
0.04 0.34 -0.40 0.26
-0.88 -1.22 -0.22 0.31
0.06 1.71 -0.37 0.68
-1.26 0.66 -0.56 0.59
-0.46 -0.56 0.35 -0.26
-1.19 -0.16 -0.77 0.47
1.73 0.81 0.78 -2.62
-0.03 1.60 -0.03 0.14
-0.94 0.22 -0.65 0.34
-0.20 -0.62 -0.67 0.61
0.88 -0.20 -0.18 -0.65
0.88 -0.32 -0.30 0.49
0.49 -0.95 -0.19 0.63
2.04 -0.21 1.29 0.42
-0.50 1.99 0.25 0.50
-1.06 -1.11 -0.40 0.48
-0.90 2.48 -0.61 0.53
-1.07 -0.52 -0.03 0.26
-0.28 -0.63 -0.48 0.21
0.40 -0.22 -0.15 -0.03
-1.10 -0.99 -0.69 0.69
1.18 0.55 0.84 0.28
1.11 -0.71 1.21 0.63
0.14 -0.63 -0.44 0.70
0.25 0.33 -0.53 0.71
-1.07 0.63 -0.75 0.01
-1.11 1.99 -0.74 0.64
-0.24 -0.52 0.39 -1.22
-0.26 -1.25 -0.40 0.45
-0.94 -1.15 -0.64 0.51
-0.35 0.38 -0.57 0.55
-0.51 1.69 -0.45 -0.17
2.05 -0.27 1.62 -1.06
0.69 -0.86 0.24 0.52
-1.26 1.00 -0.62 0.53
0.32 -1.32 0.02 -0.67
3.42 -0.34 2.42 -6.06
0.77 -0.98 -0.50 0.43
1.37 -0.71 3.07 0.23
2.00 -0.13 0.87 -0.03
0.34 1.20 0.18 0.39
-0.44 -0.08 -0.42 0.41
0.78 0.80 -0.25 0.19
-0.01 -0.88 -0.47 0.37
0.37 0.76 -0.65 0.70
1.32 1.78 -0.03 0.44
2.72 -0.72 0.74 -1.39
0.14 -0.98 -0.21 -0.28
-1.24 -1.21 -0.30 0.34
0.71 -1.33 -0.03 -0.66
-1.01 -0.38 -0.43 0.00
-0.37 -0.21 -0.44 -0.50
0.25 -0.05 -0.54 0.52
-0.51 1.05 0.79 -0.78
1.37 -0.09 0.85 -1.41
-0.39 -1.26 -0.74 0.34
-1.28 -0.03 -0.83 0.62
-0.63 -0.15 -0.42 0.06
0.17 1.23 -0.33 0.38
-1.02 -0.52 -0.26 -0.04
-0.51 0.12 -0.37 -0.86
-0.33 1.49 0.53 0.25
0.85 -1.03 1.19 -0.41
-0.68 -1.24 -0.44 -0.47
-1.21 -0.21 -0.54 -0.04
0.27 -0.26 -0.40 0.05
0.03 -1.07 -0.47 0.63
-0.83 -0.62 -0.67 0.57
0.20 1.73 -0.41 0.44
-0.33 -0.17 -0.82 0.70
-0.88 -0.58 -0.51 0.58
1.73 -1.11 0.23 0.15
-1.16 0.18 -0.53 -0.37
-0.49 0.94 -0.62 0.27
-0.34 -0.65 0.34 0.31
0.31 -0.29 1.17 -0.60
-0.88 -0.52 -0.23 0.19
2.39 -0.46 5.45 -0.08
0.10 -0.68 -0.40 0.06
2.08 0.27 0.56 -1.18
-0.74 0.04 0.16 -0.33
-1.24 -1.10 -0.66 0.51
0.96 -0.64 0.42 -0.17
-0.92 -0.42 -0.51 0.01
-1.12 -0.13 -0.82 0.20
0.75 -1.21 -0.11 0.02
-0.97 1.89 -0.11 0.48
-1.18 2.37 -0.79 0.55
0.46 1.88 -0.51 0.68
-0.61 0.06 -0.47 0.68
-0.65 1.12 -0.65 0.52
0.74 0.11 0.12 0.50
-1.14 -1.13 -0.86 0.66
2.01 0.59 1.12 0.09
0.43 -1.21 1.07 -1.68
-1.24 1.83 -0.85 0.44
-0.91 -0.97 -0.10 0.53
-0.17 0.68 -0.34 0.57
1.93 0.75 0.23 0.44
1.43 -0.72 0.36 0.20
-1.19 0.22 -0.56 0.64
0.26 1.25 -0.41 0.16
0.68 1.80 3.78 -0.41
0.52 -0.62 5.09 -2.77
1.11 0.83 0.35 -0.45
-0.19 -1.31 -0.25 0.73
-0.80 -0.59 -0.32 0.51
-1.03 1.59 -0.46 -0.60
2.00 0.47 0.11 0.47
0.90 0.34 0.71 0.18
1.03 -0.98 0.65 -0.03
-0.85 -0.21 -0.80 0.68
-0.71 -0.12 -0.47 0.60
0.73 -1.24 -0.08 0.65
-0.34 0.98 0.19 0.41
Automobile Debt Outcomes: Default = 1
0.35 1
0.44 1
0.62 0
0.61 0
0.26 0
0.42 0
1.02 1
0.54 1
0.48 0
0.25 0
-0.06 0
0.36 0
0.82 0
-0.59 0
-0.33 1
0.82 0
0.17 0
0.19 0
0.35 0
-0.69 1
-0.05 0
-0.80 1
0.63 1
0.66 0
0.54 0
0.30 0
0.37 0
0.48 0
-0.59 1
0.59 1
-0.58 0
-0.30 0
-0.71 0
-1.11 0
-0.48 0
0.34 0
0.29 0
-0.29 0
0.46 1
0.39 0
-2.79 0
0.72 0
0.93 0
-5.58 1
0.38 0
-0.31 1
0.52 0
0.40 0
-0.74 0
0.33 1
0.46 0
0.66 1
-0.50 1
0.77 1
0.29 1
0.61 0
0.21 0
0.78 1
0.09 0
0.57 0
-1.67 1
-0.27 0
-0.77 0
-0.29 0
-2.64 1
0.24 0
-0.69 1
0.67 0
0.63 0
-0.64 0
0.33 1
0.34 0
-0.07 1
1.01 0
0.46 0
0.42 0
0.70 0
-0.67 1
0.64 1
0.50 0
-0.16 0
-0.54 0
-0.47 0
0.71 0
0.16 0
0.53 0
0.49 0
0.65 0
0.37 0
-1.62 0
0.56 1
-1.55 0
0.17 0
0.90 0
0.61 0
-0.38 0
0.42 0
0.60 0
-2.51 0
0.51 0
0.72 0
0.68 0
0.64 0
-0.11 0
0.11 0
0.67 0
0.01 0
0.93 0
0.64 0
0.87 0
0.50 1
0.92 0
-1.54 1
0.52 1
0.42 0
0.54 0
-0.02 0
-0.54 0
0.80 0
0.57 0
0.04 0
-3.72 1
0.37 0
-0.21 0
-0.02 0
-1.03 0
0.45 0
-0.74 0
0.45 0
0.80 0
0.51 0
0.01 0
0.31 0
0.02 1
-0.04 1
-0.47 0
0.30 1
0.78 0
-2.32 1
-1.31 0
0.56 0
0.53 0
-0.60 0
0.24 0
-0.37 0
-0.21 1
-1.29 1
-4.96 1
-0.33 1
0.84 0
0.66 1
0.26 0
0.91 0
0.52 0
0.73 0
0.55 0
0.75 0
-1.00 1
0.40 0
0.48 0
-2.61 0
-0.24 0
-0.58 0
0.21 1
0.09 0
0.48 0
0.87 1
0.02 0
0.63 0
0.37 1
0.46 1
0.96 1
0.34 1
0.85 0
0.60 0
0.65 0
0.77 0
0.78 0
-1.59 0
-4.07 1
0.10 1
0.50 0
-0.14 0
0.81 0
0.16 0
0.48 0
-1.90 0
-0.29 0
-1.92 0
-1.01 0
0.64 0
0.12 0
0.10 1
0.52 0
0.90 0
-1.01 0
0.87 0
0.32 0
0.51 0
-0.62 0
Test Set of Second 200 Applicants
Raw Data

244 49.03 15.38
246 26.95 3.05
220 24.24 5.91
322 42.00 32.64
222 30.48 9.23
358 28.14 0.88
262 47.14 2.43
339 28.82 5.36
380 39.96 11.88
393 34.51 1.73
229 40.49 17.78
263 28.94 4.65
265 39.92 13.19
313 40.11 7.25
346 30.75 5.33
381 27.13 0.32
202 27.80 4.47
214 29.14 10.58
373 26.21 0.73
336 31.92 1.87
350 19.22 0.47
237 18.19 0.21
349 30.73 4.18
345 29.50 1.81
253 41.47 18.07
201 25.92 0.35
250 33.12 0.84
292 39.68 20.88
290 27.85 5.72
370 28.94 1.10
248 33.15 2.62
317 36.18 5.34
255 34.99 0.69
311 45.33 1.49
320 22.78 0.17
273 25.47 3.08
291 17.01 0.67
334 18.92 0.26
342 23.47 0.05
337 31.93 6.35
225 16.67 0.02
343 37.31 4.49
302 26.64 2.62
252 25.55 2.12
312 25.78 1.22
366 30.58 3.75
289 37.80 0.14
254 28.86 0.66
239 27.04 2.24
362 34.46 2.76
348 37.32 14.80
251 19.98 1.47
230 24.03 2.30
361 35.88 11.05
249 22.74 2.95
215 42.00 4.60
369 41.90 2.53
219 30.22 1.35
387 37.26 10.72
294 26.08 2.38
386 32.75 0.62
267 33.83 9.69
212 32.45 1.14
303 23.36 1.50
232 34.36 6.58
280 36.41 0.87
259 35.72 2.51
258 20.93 3.05
372 29.18 2.14
347 38.15 6.61
271 23.64 3.67
223 26.47 2.27
367 30.88 0.26
378 23.21 1.02
376 23.48 4.40
245 47.29 6.75
359 39.06 5.52
392 25.60 3.32
285 34.69 5.51
207 36.13 0.20
315 30.43 2.40
287 25.62 2.77
206 30.67 7.81
236 39.81 3.48
274 29.88 2.43
389 56.21 12.49
397 23.78 2.97
269 32.38 1.68
261 31.49 13.87
327 19.99 5.82
257 39.73 9.62
275 23.68 3.32
353 26.76 3.13
398 32.84 3.97
256 30.33 5.50
356 37.22 2.82
400 41.33 6.56
321 31.15 11.09
293 34.75 8.69
341 23.55 6.20
301 47.49 1.56
279 32.19 3.46
304 43.93 6.98
300 32.18 5.45
316 25.50 6.44
333 28.15 9.86
276 28.01 7.17
226 41.89 6.61
205 39.24 5.40
306 52.28 1.28
218 27.54 5.38
383 30.38 7.74
296 36.86 15.02
382 45.85 2.56
247 24.91 7.41
364 32.38 9.58
208 28.88 4.30
270 45.64 16.93
272 28.76 7.64
286 28.49 9.17
340 59.20 18.40
375 43.06 4.69
238 34.44 9.43
242 30.13 5.36
314 22.21 7.11
355 30.63 6.60
211 34.41 10.46
335 38.69 13.82
268 35.07 7.84
204 28.00 8.43
243 39.76 8.23
305 33.61 11.65
326 46.35 11.24
344 41.45 10.06
351 30.12 10.74
209 35.01 9.82
203 37.33 9.30
390 45.36 16.63
278 49.48 8.71
328 35.88 14.32
283 44.97 17.07
360 37.46 6.55
329 36.80 8.82
288 34.33 9.28
354 48.78 10.30
295 42.04 7.53
217 38.33 12.22
234 44.67 13.92
277 41.87 7.50
281 45.19 8.43
264 34.56 13.89
374 27.55 12.06
391 29.01 7.56
338 32.84 10.64
352 40.83 9.13
210 43.38 10.25
330 30.08 11.45
310 28.72 10.61
309 35.98 9.85
371 29.35 14.10
241 48.07 22.90
228 42.35 12.14
396 49.66 16.02
224 30.16 13.79
368 50.31 15.57
365 48.70 23.33
323 38.50 14.25
284 31.76 14.69
266 34.70 16.66
298 32.68 12.32
297 37.65 15.01
260 32.47 14.76
213 38.78 13.63
240 31.87 14.53
282 34.81 17.99
388 43.72 13.61
216 36.86 15.14
318 45.42 23.10
395 38.84 15.15
319 34.73 13.66
331 44.28 18.08
235 44.51 19.27
377 53.54 14.04
307 43.88 17.05
399 43.89 13.97
332 44.11 27.77
385 35.90 18.83
379 44.71 22.82
221 42.37 19.71
299 37.33 23.03
357 36.18 20.89
325 47.26 22.77
384 38.77 22.30
227 41.88 22.25
394 44.62 22.76
308 38.30 16.62
233 48.59 22.96
324 48.83 18.39
231 49.28 30.50
363 40.93 25.45
mean 34.92 8.90

0.45 $225,132 -$31,439 -$47,021
1.94 $42,342 -$11,771 -$8,483
1.21 $44,922 -$12,089 -$11,256
0.62 $135,739 -$28,424 -$33,439
1.12 $58,409 -$12,006 -$12,116
0.93 $27,325 -$4,517 -$13,525
2.52 $31,928 -$5,594 -$8,242
1.45 $75,578 -$6,243 -$23,220
0.10 $86,131 -$10,019 -$35,982
1.77 $29,833 -$5,502 -$5,496
0.87 $177,437 -$22,722 -$10,576
0.55 $37,255 -$6,297 -$11,865
0.24 $101,665 -$12,450 -$25,526
0.51 $61,050 -$8,079 -$17,483
0.90 $33,180 -$6,569 -$7,792
1.91 $15,519 -$1,141 -$5,535
0.37 $38,536 -$6,970 -$3,018
0.70 $54,917 -$9,304 -$10,579
2.24 $17,692 -$654 -$3,789
0.60 $30,809 -$2,953 -$9,666
0.69 $26,732 -$3,140 -$127
0.43 $16,186 -$1,716 -$4,128
0.08 $30,434 -$4,922 -$8,632
0.51 $36,932 -$3,148 -$8,909
2.25 $72,444 -$13,029 -$9,880
0.24 $12,181 -$2,057 -$3,696
0.33 $28,570 -$3,395 -$3,842
1.30 $75,202 -$13,974 -$17,537
0.49 $59,484 -$4,055 -$18,061
0.74 $16,520 -$2,139 -$3,523
0.87 $26,733 -$3,685 -$3,301
1.83 $30,213 -$3,694 -$6,361
0.71 $31,937 -$2,756 -$4,146
1.20 $19,030 -$2,925 -$2,597
1.42 $24,004 -$735 -$2,055
0.25 $16,515 -$2,573 -$6,719
0.72 $18,195 -$1,001 -$2,136
0.10 $35,812 -$1,545 -$6,057
0.81 $16,046 -$373 -$2,355
0.70 $30,535 -$5,067 -$4,062
0.66 $19,836 -$168 -$2,317
0.73 $31,273 -$2,728 -$10,612
2.30 $24,192 -$758 -$1,265
0.96 $12,670 -$1,331 -$1,439
2.01 $19,359 -$268 $501
0.85 $52,642 -$4,373 -$2,764
1.21 $26,062 -$472 -$3,532
1.03 $17,438 -$673 -$609
0.16 $10,966 -$1,662 -$2,910
0.51 $38,271 -$2,167 -$8,003
0.21 $90,365 -$4,704 -$42,456
0.68 $15,304 -$140 -$2,862
0.53 $26,688 -$1,800 -$1,898
0.65 $89,666 -$5,493 -$25,329
0.15 $34,396 -$666 -$11,683
0.53 $37,702 -$3,196 -$8,647
0.57 $27,757 -$2,936 -$1,667
0.37 $25,277 -$1,109 -$3,673
1.57 $31,601 -$2,302 -$20,103
0.95 $22,707 -$1,541 $361
0.95 $25,931 -$298 -$2,751
0.26 $58,632 -$6,353 -$11,291
0.83 $20,581 -$120 -$3,642
0.51 $45,733 -$1,897 -$1,583
3.07 $31,822 -$241 -$8,407
0.70 $24,453 -$738 -$2,565
1.13 $30,095 -$624 -$5,566
1.21 $22,989 -$659 -$532
1.95 $42,566 -$948 $750
1.71 $65,964 -$1,932 -$15,638
0.79 $19,567 -$681 -$3,838
0.72 $19,708 -$577 -$1,627
0.17 $22,260 -$809 $138
0.15 $15,094 -$176 -$556
1.49 $22,893 -$791 -$1,472
1.29 $32,693 -$3,880 -$3,487
1.38 $24,032 -$1,828 -$3,338
0.47 $34,757 -$838 -$5,385
0.60 $29,259 -$2,330 -$5,089
0.95 $30,115 -$245 $1,215
0.13 $23,164 -$827 -$3,204
0.09 $38,753 -$1,647 -$2,679
2.47 $16,575 -$833 -$3,200
0.48 $23,456 -$1,415 -$3,746
0.90 $16,495 -$266 $1,127
0.45 $233,589 -$14,614 -$20,248
0.70 $17,318 -$122 $104
0.13 $38,102 -$1,226 -$1,649
0.25 $53,946 -$5,357 -$18,444
0.77 $31,316 -$1,258 -$2,935
0.23 $37,849 -$5,312 -$4,687
0.58 $35,399 -$334 -$2,881
0.45 $22,083 -$588 $446
0.75 $29,403 -$442 -$3,908
1.39 $23,034 -$483 -$1,782
0.47 $28,101 -$547 -$2,219
1.41 $53,666 -$1,228 -$10,751
0.04 $47,486 -$5,786 -$5,960
1.78 $45,688 -$2,364 -$5,004
0.07 $19,433 -$1,545 -$2,135
0.16 $31,969 -$944 -$987
1.56 $54,010 -$394 -$1,573
0.45 $29,017 -$2,068 -$7,051
2.01 $55,883 -$884 -$2,477
1.05 $25,686 -$665 -$2,279
0.24 $38,970 -$4,145 -$4,004
0.55 $21,383 -$1,388 -$3,139
1.15 $18,651 -$820 -$4,042
0.74 $27,599 -$776 -$4,374
0.23 $21,336 -$60 -$1,374
0.13 $27,477 -$581 -$4,857
1.23 $34,103 -$591 -$7,260
0.70 $40,213 -$5,712 -$8,997
0.24 $42,965 -$757 -$2,554
0.55 $19,124 -$740 -$2,415
0.42 $31,816 -$2,717 -$4,728
0.21 $39,699 -$504 -$2,298
0.29 $77,523 -$8,984 -$10,935
0.46 $24,633 -$1,016 -$3,727
1.03 $31,946 -$1,897 -$2,349
0.77 $77,925 -$8,883 -$15,817
0.86 $29,562 -$134 -$1,865
0.74 $42,971 -$1,771 -$8,394
0.28 $23,222 -$207 -$962
0.08 $32,151 -$1,062 -$2,443
0.72 $16,402 -$32 -$941
0.48 $32,727 -$2,379 -$6,656
0.03 $45,549 -$5,726 -$6,517
0.93 $26,497 -$964 -$1,309
1.06 $15,588 -$38 -$1,758
1.75 $33,102 -$1,212 $589
0.69 $41,204 -$3,102 -$5,431
1.54 $53,444 -$1,318 -$13,743
1.55 $34,536 -$1,382 -$4,515
0.66 $31,905 -$2,744 -$1,409
1.67 $30,621 -$831 -$2,706
0.02 $30,602 -$2,892 -$1,674
1.32 $59,546 -$4,848 -$13,623
0.27 $68,045 -$2,566 -$11,141
1.30 $37,658 -$2,163 -$11,673
1.36 $30,033 -$4,352 -$9,669
0.43 $59,164 -$1,661 -$2,733
0.29 $29,432 -$1,401 -$2,951
1.84 $33,108 -$112 -$1,513
1.86 $31,598 -$1,124 -$2,421
0.45 $22,080 -$401 -$1,754
1.18 $62,889 -$3,391 -$4,983
0.41 $55,271 -$3,110 -$14,360
0.55 $43,723 -$1,306 -$1,129
0.25 $69,448 -$1,557 -$7,388
0.97 $77,486 -$3,489 -$8,333
1.94 $27,840 -$121 $8
0.04 $37,508 $83 -$1,555
0.79 $26,949 -$786 -$522
0.19 $29,373 -$330 -$4,321
0.57 $54,601 -$1,861 -$4,449
1.27 $22,685 -$33 -$423
1.02 $27,053 $18 $119
0.45 $30,317 -$32 -$1,586
0.10 $42,473 -$2,903 -$2,887
1.39 $140,039 -$6,669 -$26,622
0.95 $81,970 -$2,520 -$2,698
0.24 $70,526 -$3,100 -$13,605
1.05 $36,702 -$579 -$1,392
0.44 $62,267 -$3,663 -$6,063
0.99 $67,103 -$7,936 -$5,607
0.24 $28,179 -$1,161 -$3,524
1.18 $27,609 -$387 -$1,071
1.80 $54,845 -$1,610 -$4,500
0.26 $39,621 -$335 -$1,878
0.63 $35,803 -$900 -$3,194
0.00 $29,222 -$983 -$2,055
0.95 $43,637 -$665 -$217
0.18 $38,346 -$314 -$3,390
0.13 $52,717 -$1,727 -$10,154
1.90 $185,557 -$4,674 -$8,334
1.23 $41,991 -$466 -$258
0.66 $106,131 -$7,420 -$10,170
1.02 $72,908 -$2,221 $361
0.31 $55,466 -$790 -$365
1.88 $45,551 -$1,123 -$2,546
0.39 $94,642 -$4,417 -$9,770
0.89 $50,923 -$871 -$641
1.15 $77,605 -$1,809 -$6,143
0.08 $43,730 -$244 -$2,535
0.40 $73,705 -$8,806 -$6,160
0.40 $59,837 -$2,138 -$5,044
1.17 $87,642 -$2,572 -$17,850
0.12 $65,417 -$3,026 -$6,582
0.70 $94,114 -$1,187 -$24,603
0.16 $55,182 -$2,325 -$758
0.75 $78,772 -$3,113 -$6,375
1.27 $55,033 -$1,141 -$286
2.18 $122,142 -$2,690 -$3,535
1.10 $50,645 -$979 -$2,409
0.40 $90,963 -$326 $526
1.16 $81,549 -$586 -$11,416
0.40 $159,471 -$2,001 -$7,777
0.55 $100,877 -$3,766 -$10,456
0.55 $246,981 -$3,320 -$10,467
0.82 46664.95 -2968.19 -6239.38
0.60 36739.99 4198.46 7308.15

Standardized Data
Outcomes: Default = 1 connector Unique Applicant ID Age

1 44 244 1.71
1 46 246 -0.96
1 20 220 -1.29
1 122 322 0.86
1 22 222 -0.54
1 158 358 -0.82
0 62 262 1.48
1 139 339 -0.74
1 180 380 0.61
1 193 393 -0.05
1 29 229 0.67
0 63 263 -0.72
1 65 265 0.61
1 113 313 0.63
1 146 346 -0.50
1 181 381 -0.94
1 2 202 -0.86
0 14 214 -0.70
1 173 373 -1.05
0 136 336 -0.36
0 150 350 -1.90
0 37 237 -2.02
1 149 349 -0.51
0 145 345 -0.66
1 53 253 0.79
1 1 201 -1.09
1 50 250 -0.22
0 92 292 0.58
0 90 290 -0.85
1 170 370 -0.72
0 48 248 -0.21
0 117 317 0.15
1 55 255 0.01
1 111 311 1.26
0 120 320 -1.47
1 73 273 -1.14
1 91 291 -2.17
1 134 334 -1.94
0 142 342 -1.38
1 137 337 -0.36
0 25 225 -2.21
0 143 343 0.29
0 102 302 -1.00
1 52 252 -1.13
0 112 312 -1.11
0 166 366 -0.53
0 89 289 0.35
1 54 254 -0.73
1 39 239 -0.95
0 162 362 -0.05
1 148 348 0.29
0 51 251 -1.81
1 30 230 -1.32
0 161 361 0.12
0 49 249 -1.47
1 15 215 0.86
0 169 369 0.84
0 19 219 -0.57
0 187 387 0.28
0 94 294 -1.07
0 186 386 -0.26
1 67 267 -0.13
0 12 212 -0.30
0 103 303 -1.40
0 32 232 -0.07
0 80 280 0.18
0 59 259 0.10
1 58 258 -1.69
1 172 372 -0.69
1 147 347 0.39
1 71 271 -1.36
1 23 223 -1.02
1 167 367 -0.49
0 178 378 -1.42
0 176 376 -1.38
0 45 245 1.50
0 159 359 0.50
0 192 392 -1.13
0 85 285 -0.03
1 7 207 0.15
0 115 315 -0.54
0 87 287 -1.12
0 6 206 -0.51
0 36 236 0.59
0 74 274 -0.61
0 189 389 2.58
0 197 397 -1.35
0 69 269 -0.31
1 61 261 -0.41
0 127 327 -1.81
0 57 257 0.58
0 75 275 -1.36
0 153 353 -0.99
0 198 398 -0.25
0 56 256 -0.55
0 156 356 0.28
0 200 400 0.78
0 121 321 -0.46
0 93 293 -0.02
0 141 341 -1.37
0 101 301 1.52
1 79 279 -0.33
0 104 304 1.09
0 100 300 -0.33
0 116 316 -1.14
0 133 333 -0.82
0 76 276 -0.84
0 26 226 0.84
0 5 205 0.52
0 106 306 2.10
0 18 218 -0.89
0 183 383 -0.55
0 96 296 0.23
0 182 382 1.32
0 47 247 -1.21
1 164 364 -0.31
1 8 208 -0.73
0 70 270 1.30
0 72 272 -0.75
0 86 286 -0.78
0 140 340 2.94
0 175 375 0.98
0 38 238 -0.06
0 42 242 -0.58
1 114 314 -1.54
0 155 355 -0.52
0 11 211 -0.06
1 135 335 0.46
0 68 268 0.02
0 4 204 -0.84
0 43 243 0.59
0 105 305 -0.16
0 126 326 1.38
0 144 344 0.79
1 151 351 -0.58
0 9 209 0.01
0 3 203 0.29
0 190 390 1.26
1 78 278 1.76
0 128 328 0.12
0 83 283 1.22
0 160 360 0.31
0 129 329 0.23
0 88 288 -0.07
0 154 354 1.68
0 95 295 0.86
0 17 217 0.41
0 34 234 1.18
0 77 277 0.84
0 81 281 1.24
0 64 264 -0.04
0 174 374 -0.89
0 191 391 -0.71
0 138 338 -0.25
0 152 352 0.72
0 10 210 1.02
0 130 330 -0.59
0 110 310 -0.75
0 109 309 0.13
1 171 371 -0.67
0 41 241 1.59
0 28 228 0.90
0 196 396 1.78
0 24 224 -0.58
0 168 368 1.86
0 165 365 1.67
0 123 323 0.43
0 84 284 -0.38
0 66 266 -0.03
0 98 298 -0.27
0 97 297 0.33
0 60 260 -0.30
0 13 213 0.47
0 40 240 -0.37
0 82 282 -0.01
0 188 388 1.06
0 16 216 0.24
0 118 318 1.27
0 195 395 0.47
0 119 319 -0.02
0 131 331 1.13
0 35 235 1.16
0 177 377 2.25
0 107 307 1.08
0 199 399 1.09
0 132 332 1.11
0 185 385 0.12
0 179 379 1.18
0 21 221 0.90
0 99 299 0.29
0 157 357 0.15
0 125 325 1.49
0 184 384 0.47
0 27 227 0.84
0 194 394 1.17
0 108 308 0.41
0 33 233 1.65
0 124 324 1.68
0 31 231 1.74
0 163 363 0.73
Automobil
-0.0619754
Linest 0.03759589
Function 0.28515576
12.8314812
10.6933411
beta(6)*x(6)
SDev of error
R^2
F-statistic - not applicable
"Regression
Y( ln F) = =R218+ L214*automobile_debt
TO USE Automobile
for predicting scores from -0.0746277
Linest Function 0.03684865
of First 200 applicants 0.26009539
Automobile
-0.07
0.93 -0.63 4.86 -6.78
-0.84 1.87 -0.12 -2.10
-0.43 0.66 -0.05 -2.17
3.42 -0.34 2.42 -6.06
0.05 0.50 0.32 -2.15
-1.16 0.18 -0.53 -0.37
-0.93 2.85 -0.40 -0.63
-0.51 1.05 0.79 -0.78
0.43 -1.21 1.07 -1.68
-1.03 1.59 -0.46 -0.60
1.28 0.07 3.56 -4.70
-0.61 -0.46 -0.26 -0.79
0.62 -0.97 1.50 -2.26
-0.24 -0.52 0.39 -1.22
-0.51 0.12 -0.37 -0.86
-1.24 1.83 -0.85 0.44
-0.64 -0.77 -0.22 -0.95
0.24 -0.20 0.22 -1.51
-1.18 2.37 -0.79 0.55
-1.01 -0.38 -0.43 0.00
-1.21 -0.21 -0.54 -0.04
-1.25 -0.66 -0.83 0.30
-0.68 -1.24 -0.44 -0.47
-1.02 -0.52 -0.26 -0.04
1.32 2.38 0.70 -2.40
-1.23 -0.98 -0.94 0.22
-1.16 -0.83 -0.49 -0.10
1.73 0.81 0.78 -2.62
-0.46 -0.56 0.35 -0.26
-1.12 -0.13 -0.82 0.20
-0.90 0.08 -0.54 -0.17
-0.51 1.69 -0.45 -0.17
-1.18 -0.19 -0.40 0.05
-1.07 0.63 -0.75 0.01
-1.26 1.00 -0.62 0.53
-0.84 -0.97 -0.82 0.09
-1.19 -0.16 -0.77 0.47
-1.24 -1.21 -0.30 0.34
-1.28 -0.03 -0.83 0.62
-0.37 -0.21 -0.44 -0.50
-1.28 -0.27 -0.73 0.67
-0.63 -0.15 -0.42 0.06
-0.90 2.48 -0.61 0.53
-0.98 0.22 -0.93 0.39
-1.11 1.99 -0.74 0.64
-0.74 0.04 0.16 -0.33
-1.26 0.66 -0.56 0.59
-1.19 0.35 -0.80 0.55
-0.96 -1.12 -0.97 0.31
-0.88 -0.52 -0.23 0.19
0.85 -1.03 1.19 -0.41
-1.07 -0.24 -0.85 0.67
-0.95 -0.50 -0.54 0.28
0.31 -0.29 1.17 -0.60
-0.86 -1.12 -0.33 0.55
-0.62 -0.49 -0.24 -0.05
-0.92 -0.42 -0.51 0.01
-1.09 -0.76 -0.58 0.44
0.26 1.25 -0.41 0.16
-0.94 0.22 -0.65 0.34
-1.19 0.22 -0.56 0.64
0.11 -0.94 0.33 -0.81
-1.12 0.01 -0.71 0.68
-1.07 -0.52 -0.03 0.26
-0.33 3.77 -0.40 0.65
-1.16 -0.21 -0.60 0.53
-0.92 0.52 -0.45 0.56
-0.84 0.65 -0.64 0.55
-0.97 1.89 -0.11 0.48
-0.33 1.49 0.53 0.25
-0.75 -0.05 -0.74 0.54
-0.95 -0.18 -0.73 0.57
-1.24 -1.10 -0.66 0.51
-1.14 -1.13 -0.86 0.66
-0.65 1.12 -0.65 0.52
-0.31 0.78 -0.38 -0.22
-0.49 0.94 -0.62 0.27
-0.80 -0.59 -0.32 0.51
-0.49 -0.37 -0.47 0.15
-1.25 0.21 -0.45 0.65
-0.94 -1.15 -0.64 0.51
-0.88 -1.22 -0.22 0.31
-0.16 2.76 -0.82 0.51
-0.78 -0.57 -0.63 0.37
-0.93 0.13 -0.82 0.64
0.52 -0.62 5.09 -2.77
-0.85 -0.21 -0.80 0.68
-1.04 -1.17 -0.23 0.41
0.72 -0.95 0.20 -0.57
-0.44 -0.08 -0.42 0.41
0.10 -1.00 -0.24 -0.56
-0.80 -0.40 -0.31 0.63
-0.83 -0.62 -0.67 0.57
-0.71 -0.12 -0.47 0.60
-0.49 0.96 -0.64 0.59
-0.88 -0.58 -0.51 0.58
-0.34 0.98 0.19 0.41
0.32 -1.32 0.02 -0.67
-0.03 1.60 -0.03 0.14
-0.39 -1.26 -0.74 0.34
-1.06 -1.11 -0.40 0.48
-0.78 1.24 0.20 0.61
-0.28 -0.63 -0.48 0.21
-0.50 1.99 0.25 0.50
-0.35 0.38 -0.57 0.55
0.14 -0.98 -0.21 -0.28
-0.25 -0.46 -0.69 0.38
-0.33 0.55 -0.76 0.51
-0.50 -0.14 -0.52 0.52
-1.10 -0.99 -0.69 0.69
-0.51 -1.15 -0.52 0.57
-0.17 0.68 -0.34 0.57
0.88 -0.20 -0.18 -0.65
-0.91 -0.97 -0.10 0.53
-0.21 -0.45 -0.75 0.53
0.10 -0.68 -0.40 0.06
-0.66 -1.02 -0.19 0.59
1.16 -0.88 0.84 -1.43
-0.18 -0.60 -0.60 0.47
0.04 0.34 -0.40 0.26
1.37 -0.09 0.85 -1.41
-0.61 0.06 -0.47 0.68
0.08 -0.14 -0.10 0.29
-0.51 -0.91 -0.64 0.66
-0.26 -1.25 -0.40 0.45
-0.33 -0.17 -0.82 0.70
0.23 -0.58 -0.38 0.14
0.71 -1.33 -0.03 -0.66
-0.15 0.19 -0.55 0.48
-0.07 0.40 -0.85 0.70
-0.10 1.56 -0.37 0.42
0.40 -0.22 -0.15 -0.03
0.34 1.20 0.18 0.39
0.17 1.23 -0.33 0.38
0.27 -0.26 -0.40 0.05
0.13 1.42 -0.44 0.51
0.06 -1.34 -0.44 0.02
1.11 0.83 0.35 -0.45
-0.03 -0.93 0.58 0.10
0.78 0.80 -0.25 0.19
1.18 0.90 -0.45 -0.33
-0.34 -0.65 0.34 0.31
-0.01 -0.88 -0.47 0.37
0.06 1.71 -0.37 0.68
0.20 1.73 -0.41 0.44
-0.20 -0.62 -0.67 0.61
0.48 0.60 0.44 -0.10
0.72 -0.69 0.23 -0.03
-0.20 -0.46 -0.08 0.40
-0.07 -0.95 0.62 0.34
0.72 0.25 0.84 -0.12
0.46 1.88 -0.51 0.68
-0.19 -1.31 -0.25 0.73
0.25 -0.05 -0.54 0.52
0.03 -1.07 -0.47 0.63
0.20 -0.43 0.22 0.26
0.37 0.76 -0.65 0.70
0.25 0.33 -0.53 0.71
0.14 -0.63 -0.44 0.70
0.75 -1.21 -0.11 0.02
2.02 0.95 2.54 -0.88
0.47 0.22 0.96 0.11
1.03 -0.98 0.65 -0.03
0.71 0.38 -0.27 0.57
0.96 -0.64 0.42 -0.17
2.08 0.27 0.56 -1.18
0.77 -0.98 -0.50 0.43
0.83 0.60 -0.52 0.61
1.12 1.65 0.22 0.32
0.49 -0.95 -0.19 0.63
0.88 -0.32 -0.30 0.49
0.85 -1.38 -0.47 0.47
0.68 0.22 -0.08 0.55
0.81 -1.08 -0.23 0.63
1.31 -1.16 0.16 0.30
0.68 1.80 3.78 -0.41
0.90 0.68 -0.13 0.60
2.05 -0.27 1.62 -1.06
0.90 0.34 0.71 0.18
0.69 -0.86 0.24 0.52
1.32 1.78 -0.03 0.44
1.49 -0.73 1.31 -0.34
0.74 0.11 0.12 0.50
1.18 0.55 0.84 0.28
0.73 -1.24 -0.08 0.65
2.72 -0.72 0.74 -1.39
1.43 -0.72 0.36 0.20
2.01 0.59 1.12 0.09
1.56 -1.17 0.51 -0.01
2.04 -0.21 1.29 0.42
1.73 -1.11 0.23 0.15
2.00 -0.13 0.87 -0.03
1.93 0.75 0.23 0.44
1.92 2.27 2.05 0.07
2.00 0.47 0.11 0.47
1.11 -0.71 1.21 0.63
2.03 0.57 0.95 0.57
1.37 -0.71 3.07 0.23
3.11 -0.46 1.48 -0.19
2.39 -0.46 5.45 -0.08
Credit Card Debt Income Years at Ad Years at Employer

-0.1909090399 -0.0331265406 -0.008531205 -0.1204235699
0.0382867462 0.0418324553 0.026471056 0.0363362665
0.3726856661 #N/A #N/A #N/A
193 #N/A #N/A #N/A
26.8066589033 #N/A #N/A #N/A
beta(5)*x(5) beta4*x4 beta(3)*x(3) beta(2)*x(2)

SDev of error SDev of error SDev of error SDev of error
SDev(y)
Degrees of Freedom - not applicable
"Residual Sum of Squares"
R218+ L214*automobile_debt + M214*credit_card_debt + N214*income + O214*years_at_address + P214*years_at_empl
Credit Card Debt Income Years at Addre Years at Employer

-0.1863839933 -0.0835041673 0.032318966 -0.1871656758
0.0395004791 0.0465689335 0.027055993 0.0365622573
0.3791620343 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Credit Card Debt Income Years at Addre Years at Employer

-0.19 -0.08 0.03 -0.19
Automobile Debt Outcomes: Default = 1 connector
-5.58 1 44
-0.31 1 46
-0.69 1 20
-3.72 1 122
-0.80 1 22
-1.00 1 158
-0.27 0 62
-2.32 1 139
-4.07 1 180
0.10 1 193
-0.59 1 29
-0.77 0 63
-2.64 1 65
-1.54 1 113
-0.21 1 146
0.10 1 181
0.44 1 2
-0.59 0 14
0.34 1 173
-0.47 0 136
0.84 0 150
0.29 0 37
-0.33 1 149
-0.37 0 145
-0.50 1 53
0.35 1 1
0.33 1 50
-1.55 0 92
-1.62 0 90
0.37 1 170
0.40 0 48
-0.02 0 117
0.29 1 55
0.50 1 111
0.57 0 120
-0.07 1 73
0.56 1 91
0.02 1 134
0.53 0 142
0.30 1 137
0.54 0 25
-0.60 0 143
0.68 0 102
0.66 1 52
0.92 0 112
0.48 0 166
0.37 0 89
0.77 1 54
0.46 1 39
-0.24 0 162
-4.96 1 148
0.46 0 51
0.59 1 30
-2.61 0 161
-0.74 0 49
-0.33 1 15
0.63 0 169
0.35 0 19
-1.90 0 187
0.90 0 94
0.48 0 186
-0.69 1 67
0.36 0 12
0.64 0 103
-0.30 0 32
0.50 0 80
0.09 0 59
0.78 1 58
0.96 1 172
-1.29 1 147
0.33 1 71
0.63 1 23
0.87 1 167
0.78 0 178
0.65 0 176
0.38 0 45
0.40 0 159
0.12 0 192
0.16 0 85
1.02 1 7
0.42 0 115
0.49 0 87
0.42 0 6
0.34 0 36
1.01 0 74
-1.92 0 189
0.87 0 197
0.63 0 69
-1.67 1 61
0.45 0 127
0.21 0 57
0.46 0 75
0.91 0 153
0.32 0 198
0.61 0 56
0.55 0 156
-0.62 0 200
0.04 0 121
0.17 0 93
0.56 0 141
0.72 0 101
0.64 1 79
-0.11 0 104
0.51 0 100
0.54 0 116
0.31 0 133
0.42 0 76
0.30 0 26
0.26 0 5
0.67 0 106
0.19 0 18
-0.14 0 183
-0.38 0 96
0.50 0 182
0.52 0 47
0.21 1 164
0.54 1 8
-0.64 0 70
0.34 0 72
0.53 0 86
-1.31 0 140
0.60 0 175
-0.29 0 38
0.72 0 42
0.52 1 114
0.73 0 155
-0.06 0 11
-0.04 1 135
0.67 0 68
0.61 0 4
0.93 0 43
0.11 0 105
-1.03 0 126
0.24 0 144
0.66 1 151
0.48 0 9
0.62 0 3
-1.01 0 190
-0.67 1 78
-0.74 0 128
-0.47 0 83
0.48 0 160
0.45 0 129
0.65 0 88
0.52 0 154
0.61 0 95
0.17 0 17
-1.11 0 34
0.70 0 77
-0.16 0 81
-0.29 0 64
0.85 0 174
0.64 0 191
0.78 0 138
0.26 0 152
0.25 0 10
0.80 0 130
0.87 0 110
0.64 0 109
0.46 1 171
-2.79 0 41
0.48 0 28
-1.01 0 196
0.66 0 24
0.02 0 168
0.09 0 165
0.37 0 123
0.71 0 84
0.24 0 66
0.60 0 98
0.42 0 97
0.57 0 60
0.82 0 13
0.39 0 40
-0.54 0 82
-0.29 0 188
0.82 0 16
-0.54 0 118
0.90 0 195
0.80 0 119
0.51 0 131
-0.48 0 35
0.77 0 177
0.01 0 107
0.51 0 199
0.01 0 132
0.16 0 185
-1.59 0 179
-0.05 0 21
-2.51 0 99
0.75 0 157
-0.02 0 125
0.81 0 184
0.37 0 27
0.52 0 194
0.93 0 108
-0.71 0 33
-0.21 0 124
-0.58 0 31
-0.58 0 163
Age Outcomes: Default = 1

-0.0809342526 0.25
0.0334130632 0.0263528562
#N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A
beta(1)*x(1) alpha
SDev of error SDev of error
ss + P214*years_at_employer + Q214*a

-0.0228121971 0.25
0.0325118531 0.0268108046
#N/A #N/A

-0.02 0.25
Class + Class -
Real + tp fn
Real - fp tn
using Beta of !st at each threshold
reversed
binary binary
Pred. Score output output True positive False positive True negetive
1.2904272541 1 0 1 0 150
0.9137129988 1 0 2 0 150
0.841300974 1 0 3 0 150
0.7843524865 1 0 4 0 150
0.7040173218 1 0 5 0 150
0.6780375235 1 0 6 0 150
0.6533785963 0 1 6 1 149
0.6490692978 1 0 7 1 149
0.6434158068 1 0 8 1 149
0.6389416201 1 0 9 1 149
0.6213468894 1 0 10 1 149
0.5928032601 0 1 10 2 148
0.5820159541 1 0 11 2 148
0.5723878181 1 0 12 2 148
0.5678617519 1 0 13 2 148
0.5443555483 1 0 14 2 148
0.5276377939 1 0 15 2 148
0.5206446829 0 1 15 3 147
0.5090884096 1 0 16 3 147
0.5058201428 0 1 16 4 146
0.5041720845 0 1 16 5 145
0.5010814067 0 1 16 6 144
0.4968496233 1 0 17 6 144
0.4965501339 0 1 17 7 143
0.4865754996 1 0 18 7 143
0.485725023 1 0 19 7 143
0.4809767152 1 0 20 7 143
0.4785624173 0 1 20 8 142
0.4767277295 0 1 20 9 141
0.4764979455 1 0 21 9 141
0.4737591077 0 1 21 10 140
0.4677127832 0 1 21 11 139
0.4674529237 1 0 22 11 139
0.465262823 1 0 23 11 139
0.4606614123 0 1 23 12 138
0.4575640773 1 0 24 12 138
0.4514623498 1 0 25 12 138
0.4477290354 1 0 26 12 138
0.4340819597 0 1 26 13 137
0.4277716563 1 0 27 13 137
0.4276023629 0 1 27 14 136
0.4264651998 0 1 27 15 135
0.4243629009 0 1 27 16 134
0.4214839903 1 0 28 16 134
0.4199757146 0 1 28 17 133
0.4153623393 0 1 28 18 132
0.4077392105 0 1 28 19 131
0.4070999662 1 0 29 19 131
0.4044245579 1 0 30 19 131
0.4017106368 0 1 30 20 130
0.398280552 1 0 31 20 130
0.394952856 0 1 31 21 129
0.3910762634 1 0 32 21 129
0.3893617447 0 1 32 22 128
0.3889438945 0 1 32 23 127
0.3854971466 1 0 33 23 127
0.3837350697 0 1 33 24 126
0.3817097754 0 1 33 25 125
0.3809819527 0 1 33 26 124
0.3808141011 0 1 33 27 123
0.3792142585 0 1 33 28 122
0.3756567325 1 0 34 28 122
0.3727199632 0 1 34 29 121
0.371646109 0 1 34 30 120
0.3706374596 0 1 34 31 119
0.3695088689 0 1 34 32 118
0.3635451785 0 1 34 33 117
0.3601405651 1 0 35 33 117
0.3572225365 1 0 36 33 117
0.3568043979 1 0 37 33 117
0.3559508301 1 0 38 33 117
0.3542406668 1 0 39 33 117
0.3529360762 1 0 40 33 117
0.3481553593 0 1 40 34 116
0.3476075257 0 1 40 35 115
0.3432670361 0 1 40 36 114
0.3311057889 0 1 40 37 113
0.3307321294 0 1 40 38 112
0.3292331013 0 1 40 39 111
0.3285706752 1 0 41 39 111
0.3275901508 0 1 41 40 110
0.3243389994 0 1 41 41 109
0.3225700047 0 1 41 42 108
0.3225676147 0 1 41 43 107
0.3158150621 0 1 41 44 106
0.30938216 0 1 41 45 105
0.3092806175 0 1 41 46 104
0.3091803443 0 1 41 47 103
0.3085136583 1 0 42 47 103
0.2965712341 0 1 42 48 102
0.2932422812 0 1 42 49 101
0.2927609225 0 1 42 50 100
0.2898337378 0 1 42 51 99
0.2877968172 0 1 42 52 98
0.2830299812 0 1 42 53 97
0.2822111565 0 1 42 54 96
0.2796959158 0 1 42 55 95
0.2789282898 0 1 42 56 94
0.2706579215 0 1 42 57 93
0.2702321173 0 1 42 58 92
0.2670834868 0 1 42 59 91
0.2657436319 1 0 43 59 91
0.2650751132 0 1 43 60 90
0.2627813595 0 1 43 61 89
0.2596723532 0 1 43 62 88
0.2579177187 0 1 43 63 87
0.256359901 0 1 43 64 86
0.2560486764 0 1 43 65 85
0.2549169767 0 1 43 66 84
0.2543553878 0 1 43 67 83
0.251332591 0 1 43 68 82
0.2490147076 0 1 43 69 81
0.2376512806 0 1 43 70 80
0.2320023256 0 1 43 71 79
0.2276405055 0 1 43 72 78
0.2237491048 1 0 44 72 78
0.2237302485 1 0 45 72 78
0.2200095806 0 1 45 73 77
0.2190643884 0 1 45 74 76
0.2176047477 0 1 45 75 75
0.2131911356 0 1 45 76 74
0.2111123063 0 1 45 77 73
0.2095453755 0 1 45 78 72
0.2061376307 0 1 45 79 71
0.2027129145 1 0 46 79 71
0.2025273045 0 1 46 80 70
0.2002538717 0 1 46 81 69
0.1913973776 1 0 47 81 69
0.1906381684 0 1 47 82 68
0.1894153179 0 1 47 83 67
0.188189701 0 1 47 84 66
0.1822534734 0 1 47 85 65
0.1818809763 0 1 47 86 64
0.1797920242 0 1 47 87 63
0.1792212882 1 0 48 87 63
0.1761376799 0 1 48 88 62
0.1755550295 0 1 48 89 61
0.1687767446 0 1 48 90 60
0.1683716917 1 0 49 90 60
0.1671916117 0 1 49 91 59
0.1650951399 0 1 49 92 58
0.1628841866 0 1 49 93 57
0.1542241377 0 1 49 94 56
0.1521010872 0 1 49 95 55
0.1431896854 0 1 49 96 54
0.1431819371 0 1 49 97 53
0.1393477063 0 1 49 98 52
0.1349520839 0 1 49 99 51
0.1343735586 0 1 49 100 50
0.1007212194 0 1 49 101 49
0.0987892279 0 1 49 102 48
0.0981605116 0 1 49 103 47
0.0974744939 0 1 49 104 46
0.0966350919 0 1 49 105 45
0.0954895354 0 1 49 106 44
0.0907852397 0 1 49 107 43
0.0837034054 0 1 49 108 42
0.0785248137 0 1 49 109 41
0.0603527764 0 1 49 110 40
0.0582380332 1 0 50 110 40
0.0267765181 0 1 50 111 39
0.0129480721 0 1 50 112 38
0.0123622773 0 1 50 113 37
0.0105876306 0 1 50 114 36
0.0002873144 0 1 50 115 35
-0.0010262554 0 1 50 116 34
-0.0018470507 0 1 50 117 33
-0.0022566981 0 1 50 118 32
-0.0022694193 0 1 50 119 31
-0.0122088205 0 1 50 120 30
-0.0313071432 0 1 50 121 29
-0.0372745325 0 1 50 122 28
-0.0381987734 0 1 50 123 27
-0.0564146776 0 1 50 124 26
-0.0614152126 0 1 50 125 25
-0.0619621877 0 1 50 126 24
-0.0632583358 0 1 50 127 23
-0.0683029179 0 1 50 128 22
-0.0788094505 0 1 50 129 21
-0.0826231378 0 1 50 130 20
-0.0832643438 0 1 50 131 19
-0.0883305972 0 1 50 132 18
-0.0965765019 0 1 50 133 17
-0.0996294201 0 1 50 134 16
-0.1036335173 0 1 50 135 15
-0.1107063065 0 1 50 136 14
-0.1228252615 0 1 50 137 13
-0.1257194869 0 1 50 138 12
-0.1367313191 0 1 50 139 11
-0.1439616372 0 1 50 140 10
-0.2168149997 0 1 50 141 9
-0.2276853235 0 1 50 142 8
-0.2589441387 0 1 50 143 7
-0.2675333764 0 1 50 144 6
-0.2721740922 0 1 50 145 5
-0.2776528477 0 1 50 146 4
-0.2807352492 0 1 50 147 3
-0.3510874152 0 1 50 148 2
-0.432072265 0 1 50 149 1
-0.6244559995 0 1 50 150 0
Real Total '+' Real Total '-' Total Events

50 150 200
False '+' rate True '+' rate - X - axis Y - axis
False negetive -X Y movements movements
49 0 0.02 0 0.01
48 0 0.04 0 0.03
47 0 0.06 0 0.05
46 0 0.08 0 0.07
45 0 0.1 0 0.09
44 0 0.12 0 0.11
44 0.006666667 0.12 0.006666667 0.12
43 0.006666667 0.14 0 0.13
42 0.006666667 0.16 0 0.15
41 0.006666667 0.18 0 0.17
40 0.006666667 0.2 0 0.19
40 0.013333333 0.2 0.006666667 0.2
39 0.013333333 0.22 0 0.21
38 0.013333333 0.24 0 0.23
37 0.013333333 0.26 0 0.25
36 0.013333333 0.28 0 0.27
35 0.013333333 0.3 0 0.29
35 0.02 0.3 0.006666667 0.3
34 0.02 0.32 0 0.31
34 0.026666667 0.32 0.006666667 0.32
34 0.033333333 0.32 0.006666667 0.32
34 0.04 0.32 0.006666667 0.32
33 0.04 0.34 0 0.33
33 0.046666667 0.34 0.006666667 0.34
32 0.046666667 0.36 0 0.35
31 0.046666667 0.38 0 0.37
30 0.046666667 0.4 0 0.39
30 0.053333333 0.4 0.006666667 0.4
30 0.06 0.4 0.006666667 0.4
29 0.06 0.42 0 0.41
29 0.066666667 0.42 0.006666667 0.42
29 0.073333333 0.42 0.006666667 0.42
28 0.073333333 0.44 0 0.43
27 0.073333333 0.46 0 0.45
27 0.08 0.46 0.006666667 0.46
26 0.08 0.48 0 0.47
25 0.08 0.5 0 0.49
24 0.08 0.52 0 0.51
24 0.086666667 0.52 0.006666667 0.52
23 0.086666667 0.54 0 0.53
23 0.093333333 0.54 0.006666667 0.54
23 0.1 0.54 0.006666667 0.54
23 0.106666667 0.54 0.006666667 0.54
22 0.106666667 0.56 0 0.55
22 0.113333333 0.56 0.006666667 0.56
22 0.12 0.56 0.006666667 0.56
22 0.126666667 0.56 0.006666667 0.56
21 0.126666667 0.58 0 0.57
20 0.126666667 0.6 0 0.59
20 0.133333333 0.6 0.006666667 0.6
19 0.133333333 0.62 0 0.61
19 0.14 0.62 0.006666667 0.62
18 0.14 0.64 0 0.63
18 0.146666667 0.64 0.006666667 0.64
18 0.153333333 0.64 0.006666667 0.64
17 0.153333333 0.66 0 0.65
17 0.16 0.66 0.006666667 0.66
17 0.166666667 0.66 0.006666667 0.66
17 0.173333333 0.66 0.006666667 0.66
17 0.18 0.66 0.006666667 0.66
17 0.186666667 0.66 0.006666667 0.66
16 0.186666667 0.68 0 0.67
16 0.193333333 0.68 0.006666667 0.68
16 0.2 0.68 0.006666667 0.68
16 0.206666667 0.68 0.006666667 0.68
16 0.213333333 0.68 0.006666667 0.68
16 0.22 0.68 0.006666667 0.68
15 0.22 0.7 0 0.69
14 0.22 0.72 0 0.71
13 0.22 0.74 0 0.73
12 0.22 0.76 0 0.75
11 0.22 0.78 0 0.77
10 0.22 0.8 0 0.79
10 0.226666667 0.8 0.006666667 0.8
10 0.233333333 0.8 0.006666667 0.8
10 0.24 0.8 0.006666667 0.8
10 0.246666667 0.8 0.006666667 0.8
10 0.253333333 0.8 0.006666667 0.8
10 0.26 0.8 0.006666667 0.8
9 0.26 0.82 0 0.81
9 0.266666667 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
9 0.273333333 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
9 0.28 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
9 0.286666667 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
9 0.293333333 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
9 0.3 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
9 0.306666667 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
9 0.313333333 0.82 0.006666667 0.82
8 0.313333333 0.84 0 0.83
8 0.32 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.326666667 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.333333333 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.34 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.346666667 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.353333333 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.36 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.366666667 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.373333333 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.38 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.386666667 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
8 0.393333333 0.84 0.006666667 0.84
7 0.393333333 0.86 0 0.85
7 0.4 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.406666667 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.413333333 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.42 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.426666667 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.433333333 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.44 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.446666667 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.453333333 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.46 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.466666667 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.473333333 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
7 0.48 0.86 0.006666667 0.86
6 0.48 0.88 0 0.87
5 0.48 0.9 0 0.89
5 0.486666667 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
5 0.493333333 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
5 0.5 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
5 0.506666667 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
5 0.513333333 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
5 0.52 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
5 0.526666667 0.9 0.006666667 0.9
4 0.526666667 0.92 0 0.91
4 0.533333333 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
4 0.54 0.92 0.006666667 0.92
3 0.54 0.94 0 0.93
3 0.546666667 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
3 0.553333333 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
3 0.56 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
3 0.566666667 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
3 0.573333333 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
3 0.58 0.94 0.006666667 0.94
2 0.58 0.96 0 0.95
2 0.586666667 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
2 0.593333333 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
2 0.6 0.96 0.006666667 0.96
1 0.6 0.98 0 0.97
1 0.606666667 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.613333333 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.62 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.626666667 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.633333333 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.64 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.646666667 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.653333333 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.66 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.666666667 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.673333333 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.68 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.686666667 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.693333333 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.7 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.706666667 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.713333333 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.72 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.726666667 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
1 0.733333333 0.98 0.006666667 0.98
0 0.733333333 1 0 0.99
0 0.74 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.746666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.753333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.76 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.766666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.773333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.78 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.786666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.793333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.8 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.806666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.813333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.82 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.826666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.833333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.84 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.846666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.853333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.86 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.866666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.873333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.88 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.886666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.893333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.9 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.906666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.913333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.92 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.926666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.933333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.94 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.946666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.953333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.96 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.966666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.973333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.98 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.986666667 1 0.006666667 1
0 0.993333333 1 0.006666667 1
0 1 1 0.006666667 1
Sum
0.839466667
1
f(x) = 0.7534739206x + 0.442424175
R² = 0.7543908394
0.9
Rectangle 0.8
0
0
0 0.7
0
0
0.6
0
0.0008
0 0.5
0
0
0 0.4
0.001333333
0
0.3
0
0
0 0.2
0
0.002
0 0.1
0.002133333
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
0.2
0.1
0.002133333 0
0.002133333 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
0
0.002266667
0
0
0
0.002666667
0.002666667
0
0.0028
0.0028
0
0
0.003066667
0
0
0
0.003466667
0
0.0036
0.0036
0.0036
0
0.003733333
0.003733333
0.003733333
0
0
0.004
0
0.004133333
0
0.004266667
0.004266667
0
0.0044
0.0044
0.0044
0.0044
0.0044
0
0.004533333
0.004533333
0.004533333
0.004533333
0.004533333
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.005333333
0.005333333
0.005333333
0.005333333
0.005333333
0.005333333
0
0.005466667
0.005466667
0.005466667
0.005466667
0.005466667
0.005466667
0.005466667
0.005466667
0
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0.0056
0
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0.005733333
0
0
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0.006
0
0.006133333
0.006133333
0
0.006266667
0.006266667
0.006266667
0.006266667
0.006266667
0.006266667
0
0.0064
0.0064
0.0064
0
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0.006533333
0
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
0.006666667
-4900
+ -
+ tp - didn’t , unprofitable fn - did unprofitable
_ fp - didn’t profitable tn - did profitable
4000
Title
AUC
Linear (AUC)
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
At Training Set (1st) Threshold = 0.3429
Overall Profit per
average profits per applicant when using No model profit event
1775 407000 2035
max profit
max overall per event
435300 2176.5
profit from
Loss from non profit per
TN FN defaulters defaulters Total profit applicant
150 49 -240100 600000 359900 1799.5
150 48 -235200 600000 364800 1824
150 47 -230300 600000 369700 1848.5
150 46 -225400 600000 374600 1873
150 45 -220500 600000 379500 1897.5
150 44 -215600 600000 384400 1922
149 44 -215600 596000 380400 1902
149 43 -210700 596000 385300 1926.5
AUC 149 42 -205800 596000 390200 1951
Linear (AUC) 149 41 -200900 596000 395100 1975.5
149 40 -196000 596000 400000 2000
148 40 -196000 592000 396000 1980
148 39 -191100 592000 400900 2004.5
148 38 -186200 592000 405800 2029
148 37 -181300 592000 410700 2053.5
148 36 -176400 592000 415600 2078
148 35 -171500 592000 420500 2102.5
147 35 -171500 588000 416500 2082.5
147 34 -166600 588000 421400 2107
146 34 -166600 584000 417400 2087
145 34 -166600 580000 413400 2067
144 34 -166600 576000 409400 2047
144 33 -161700 576000 414300 2071.5
143 33 -161700 572000 410300 2051.5
143 32 -156800 572000 415200 2076
143 31 -151900 572000 420100 2100.5
143 30 -147000 572000 425000 2125
142 30 -147000 568000 421000 2105
141 30 -147000 564000 417000 2085
141 29 -142100 564000 421900 2109.5
140 29 -142100 560000 417900 2089.5
139 29 -142100 556000 413900 2069.5
139 28 -137200 556000 418800 2094
139 27 -132300 556000 423700 2118.5
138 27 -132300 552000 419700 2098.5
138 26 -127400 552000 424600 2123
138 25 -122500 552000 429500 2147.5
138 24 -117600 552000 434400 2172
137 24 -117600 548000 430400 2152
137 23 -112700 548000 435300 2176.5
136 23 -112700 544000 431300 2156.5
135 23 -112700 540000 427300 2136.5
134 23 -112700 536000 423300 2116.5
134 22 -107800 536000 428200 2141
133 22 -107800 532000 424200 2121
132 22 -107800 528000 420200 2101
131 22 -107800 524000 416200 2081
131 21 -102900 524000 421100 2105.5
131 20 -98000 524000 426000 2130
130 20 -98000 520000 422000 2110
130 19 -93100 520000 426900 2134.5
129 19 -93100 516000 422900 2114.5
129 18 -88200 516000 427800 2139
128 18 -88200 512000 423800 2119
127 18 -88200 508000 419800 2099
127 17 -83300 508000 424700 2123.5
126 17 -83300 504000 420700 2103.5
125 17 -83300 500000 416700 2083.5
124 17 -83300 496000 412700 2063.5
123 17 -83300 492000 408700 2043.5
122 17 -83300 488000 404700 2023.5
122 16 -78400 488000 409600 2048
121 16 -78400 484000 405600 2028
120 16 -78400 480000 401600 2008
119 16 -78400 476000 397600 1988
118 16 -78400 472000 393600 1968
117 16 -78400 468000 389600 1948
117 15 -73500 468000 394500 1972.5
117 14 -68600 468000 399400 1997
117 13 -63700 468000 404300 2021.5
117 12 -58800 468000 409200 2046
117 11 -53900 468000 414100 2070.5
117 10 -49000 468000 419000 2095
116 10 -49000 464000 415000 2075
115 10 -49000 460000 411000 2055
114 10 -49000 456000 407000 2035
113 10 -49000 452000 403000 2015
112 10 -49000 448000 399000 1995
111 10 -49000 444000 395000 1975
111 9 -44100 444000 399900 1999.5
110 9 -44100 440000 395900 1979.5
109 9 -44100 436000 391900 1959.5
108 9 -44100 432000 387900 1939.5
107 9 -44100 428000 383900 1919.5
106 9 -44100 424000 379900 1899.5
105 9 -44100 420000 375900 1879.5
104 9 -44100 416000 371900 1859.5
103 9 -44100 412000 367900 1839.5
103 8 -39200 412000 372800 1864
102 8 -39200 408000 368800 1844
101 8 -39200 404000 364800 1824
100 8 -39200 400000 360800 1804
99 8 -39200 396000 356800 1784
98 8 -39200 392000 352800 1764
97 8 -39200 388000 348800 1744
96 8 -39200 384000 344800 1724
95 8 -39200 380000 340800 1704
94 8 -39200 376000 336800 1684
93 8 -39200 372000 332800 1664
92 8 -39200 368000 328800 1644
91 8 -39200 364000 324800 1624
91 7 -34300 364000 329700 1648.5
90 7 -34300 360000 325700 1628.5
89 7 -34300 356000 321700 1608.5
88 7 -34300 352000 317700 1588.5
87 7 -34300 348000 313700 1568.5
86 7 -34300 344000 309700 1548.5
85 7 -34300 340000 305700 1528.5
84 7 -34300 336000 301700 1508.5
83 7 -34300 332000 297700 1488.5
82 7 -34300 328000 293700 1468.5
81 7 -34300 324000 289700 1448.5
80 7 -34300 320000 285700 1428.5
79 7 -34300 316000 281700 1408.5
78 7 -34300 312000 277700 1388.5
78 6 -29400 312000 282600 1413
78 5 -24500 312000 287500 1437.5
77 5 -24500 308000 283500 1417.5
76 5 -24500 304000 279500 1397.5
75 5 -24500 300000 275500 1377.5
74 5 -24500 296000 271500 1357.5
73 5 -24500 292000 267500 1337.5
72 5 -24500 288000 263500 1317.5
71 5 -24500 284000 259500 1297.5
71 4 -19600 284000 264400 1322
70 4 -19600 280000 260400 1302
69 4 -19600 276000 256400 1282
69 3 -14700 276000 261300 1306.5
68 3 -14700 272000 257300 1286.5
67 3 -14700 268000 253300 1266.5
66 3 -14700 264000 249300 1246.5
65 3 -14700 260000 245300 1226.5
64 3 -14700 256000 241300 1206.5
63 3 -14700 252000 237300 1186.5
63 2 -9800 252000 242200 1211
62 2 -9800 248000 238200 1191
61 2 -9800 244000 234200 1171
60 2 -9800 240000 230200 1151
60 1 -4900 240000 235100 1175.5
59 1 -4900 236000 231100 1155.5
58 1 -4900 232000 227100 1135.5
57 1 -4900 228000 223100 1115.5
56 1 -4900 224000 219100 1095.5
55 1 -4900 220000 215100 1075.5
54 1 -4900 216000 211100 1055.5
53 1 -4900 212000 207100 1035.5
52 1 -4900 208000 203100 1015.5
51 1 -4900 204000 199100 995.5
50 1 -4900 200000 195100 975.5
49 1 -4900 196000 191100 955.5
48 1 -4900 192000 187100 935.5
47 1 -4900 188000 183100 915.5
46 1 -4900 184000 179100 895.5
45 1 -4900 180000 175100 875.5
44 1 -4900 176000 171100 855.5
43 1 -4900 172000 167100 835.5
42 1 -4900 168000 163100 815.5
41 1 -4900 164000 159100 795.5
40 1 -4900 160000 155100 775.5
40 0 0 160000 160000 800
39 0 0 156000 156000 780
38 0 0 152000 152000 760
37 0 0 148000 148000 740
36 0 0 144000 144000 720
35 0 0 140000 140000 700
34 0 0 136000 136000 680
33 0 0 132000 132000 660
32 0 0 128000 128000 640
31 0 0 124000 124000 620
30 0 0 120000 120000 600
29 0 0 116000 116000 580
28 0 0 112000 112000 560
27 0 0 108000 108000 540
26 0 0 104000 104000 520
25 0 0 100000 100000 500
24 0 0 96000 96000 480
23 0 0 92000 92000 460
22 0 0 88000 88000 440
21 0 0 84000 84000 420
20 0 0 80000 80000 400
19 0 0 76000 76000 380
18 0 0 72000 72000 360
17 0 0 68000 68000 340
16 0 0 64000 64000 320
15 0 0 60000 60000 300
14 0 0 56000 56000 280
13 0 0 52000 52000 260
12 0 0 48000 48000 240
11 0 0 44000 44000 220
10 0 0 40000 40000 200
9 0 0 36000 36000 180
8 0 0 32000 32000 160
7 0 0 28000 28000 140
6 0 0 24000 24000 120
5 0 0 20000 20000 100
4 0 0 16000 16000 80
3 0 0 12000 12000 60
2 0 0 8000 8000 40
1 0 0 4000 4000 20
0 0 0 0 0 0
1st) Threshold = 0.3429 From Training Set (1st)
Used
Threshold max overall max profit per
0.3432670361 431400 2157
Threshold for
max Therefore % change is
0.4277716563 (2035 - 2157) * 100 /
max profit
threshold
0.4277716563
Threshold for max
0.342932791
2157 = -5.656003709

Credit Card Predictive Model

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Credit Card Predictive Model

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Instructions

What is your predictive model?

Years at employer: 0.23

Years at address: -0.58

Credit card debt: 0.14

Auto debt: -0.06

b. Explain the evidence your degree of confidence is based upon.

Make sure to include a title for your assignment

o Eggertopia scores). Design your model on the Training Set only.

k President. The summary will address the following questions:

t your model on new standardized input data if they wished.

ed by 200) when using your predictive model on the Training Set?

our model does not over-fit the Training Set data?

o complete more to help peers who are waiting.

mean 34.67 8.61

standard deviation 8.20 6.77

0.78 48439.96 -3202.11 -6378.07

0.62 47862.35 3892.03 7472.44

standard deviation 1.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Unique Applicant ID Age Years at Employer

mean 34.67 8.61

standard deviation 8.20 6.77

0.78 48439.96 -3202.11 -6378.07

0.62 47862.35 3892.03 7472.44

Outcomes: Default = 1 connector Unique Applicant ID

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Automobile Debt Credit Card Debt Income Years at Addr

beta(6)*x(6) beta(5)*x(5) beta4*x4 beta(3)*x(3)

=R218+ L214*automobile_debt + M214*credit_card_debt + N214*income + O214*years_at_address + P214*ye

Years at Employer Age Outcomes: Default = 1

beta(2)*x(2) beta(1)*x(1) alpha

ars_at_address + P214*years_at_employer + Q214*age

defaulters non-defaulters 50 150

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

max profit per Threshold for

201 -0.06 0.23 -0.58

Income Credit Card Debt Automobile Debt Outcomes: De

Score using values provided in Answers

Condition X "+" 0.25 a 0.18 e

"-" 0.75 b 0.125 g

Individual Probabilities Name

Probability Distributions Name

Conditional Probabilities Name

p("+" | Test POS) e/c 0.59 Positive Predictive Value (PPV

Copyright Daniel Egger/ Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

robability of the Condition

edictive Value (PPV)

redictive Value (NPV)

Condition X "+" 0.25 a

Individual Probabilities Name

p("+" | Test POS) e/c 0.59

"Relative Entropy" of p and q, written D(p||q)

nce of Condition "+" H(X)

or "KL Divergence" for short)

Percentage Information Gain (P.I.G.)

= a*log(1/a) + b*log(1/b) I(X;Y) = H(X)

= e*log(1/e) + f*log(1/f) + g*Log(1/g) + h*log(1/h)

= (a *H(e/a, f/a)) + (b *H(g/b, h/b)

= (c *H(e/c, g/c) + (d *H(f/d, h/d)

X upon learning one outcome in Y

mean 34.92 8.90

beta(6)x(6) beta(5)x(5) beta4x4 beta(3)x(3)

=R218+ L214automobile_debt + M214credit_card_debt + N214income + O214years_at_address + P214*ye

beta(2)x(2) beta(1)x(1) alpha

ars_at_address + P214years_at_employer + Q214age

= alog(1/a) + blog(1/b) I(X;Y) = H(X)

= elog(1/e) + flog(1/f) + gLog(1/g) + hlog(1/h)

= (a H(e/a, f/a)) + (b H(g/b, h/b)

= (c H(e/c, g/c) + (d H(f/d, h/d)

beta(5)x(5) beta4x4 beta(3)x(3) beta(2)x(2)

R218+ L214automobile_debt + M214credit_card_debt + N214income + O214years_at_address + P214*years_at_empl