Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources

ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF WOOD PRODUCTS

IN KENYA

Study carried out by:

WANLEYS Consultancy Services,
NAIROBI, KENYA

JULY , 2013

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ABSTRACT
Carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation contribute significantly to the
global climate change problem. REDD+ has been identified as one of the innovative
mechanism with potential to significantly reduce forest sector emissions in developing
tropical countries and therefore contribute to global climate change mitigation efforts.
Developing countries that voluntarily opt to participate in REDD+ will be expected to
formulate effective REDD+ strategies to support implementation. A number of analytical
studies have been proposed in Kenya to provide information necessary for the strategy
formulation process. Information on supply and demand of forest wood products in Kenya is
currently lacking and has been proposed as one of the studies to be done.
This study was commissioned to provide information on current wood supply potential,
current potential demand, critical analysis of supply and demand interactions, forecasting of
future demand and supply and policy and legal environment affecting supply and demand.
The Study approaches adopted include literature reviews, workshops, stakeholder
consultations, Focus Group Discussions and site visits

The study found that Kenya has a wood supply potential of 31.4 million m3 against a national
demand of 41.7 million m3 hence a current deficit of 10.3 million m3. Timber, poles, fire
wood and charcoal supply stands at 7,363,414m3, 3,028,907m3, 13,654,022m3 and
7,358,717m3 while demand stands at 5,262,624m3, 1,409,482m3, 18,702,748m3 and
16,325,810m3 respectively. Forecasts for a 20 year period indicate a 20.0% increase in supply
and 21.6% increase in demand by the year 2032 which signifies a gradually increasing deficit.

Analysis of policies and their impacts on supply and demand balances have identified those
that support increased wood production and those impacting on demand all pursuing
sustainability. Those policies that support tree planting through incentives, sustainable
harvesting and effective distribution of wood products need to be strongly supported by the
REDD+ strategy. Policies that negatively impact on wood production, promote unfair trade in
forestry and promote consumption without reflecting on mode of production will be
recommended for review and where possible harmonization with the forest policy.

Gaps in forestry that are not adequately addressed by the policies are identified and review
recommended while inadequacy of implementing institution is also addressed and
recommendations on capacity development made.

The REDD+ strategy will use the study findings to create an enabling environment for
achievement of sustainable wood supply from the existing forest resource base. The strategy
should, among others, promote good forest management practices including increasing forest
cover, through afforestation, protecting and conserving existing forest resources, engage other
wood producers, while at the same time, improve efficiencies in wood processing and
utilization methods.

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ABBREVIATIONS
CPAs Charcoal Producer Associations
CFAs Community Forest Associations
DDCs District Development Committees
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
EAWLS East Africa Wild Life Society
EMCA Environmental Management and Coordination Act
ESDA Energy for Sustainable Development Africa
FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility
FRA Forest Resources Assessment
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FAN Forest Action Network
FD Forest Department
FAN Forest Action Network
GBM Green Belt Movement
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GFPM Global Forest Product Model
GIS Geographical Information System
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
KEFRI Kenya Forestry Research Institute
KFC Kenya Forestry College
KFSC Kenya Forestry Seed Centre
KFS Kenya Forest Service
KFWG Kenya Forest Working Group
KIA Kenya Investment Authority
KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
KPLC Kenya Power and Lighting Company
KWS Kenya Wildlife Society
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
M.A.I Mean Annual Increment
MENR Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources
MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification
NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy
NEMA National Environment Management Authority
NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations
NIC National Investment Council
NLC National Land Commission
NUDP National Urban Development Policy
PFM Public Financial Management
REA Rural Electrification Authority
REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (+) and
the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and
enhancement of forest carbon stocks

3
R-PIN Readiness Plan Idea Note
SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises
TNRF Tanzania Natural Resources Forum
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WWF World Wildlife Fund

4
UNITS OF MEASURE
Cm Centimeter
Dbh Diameter at Breast height
Ft Foot
Ha Hectare
Km Kilometer
Kgs Kilograms
Kshs Kenya Shillings
M3 Cubic Meter
No. Number
Tons Tones
USD US Dollar
Yr. Year
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................... 2
ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................................ 3
UNITS OF MEASURE................................................................................................................... 5
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ 6
LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ 9
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................... 11
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 12
1.1 Forests and Climate Change ............................................................................................... 18
1.2 Rationale for the Study ....................................................................................................... 18
1.3 Objectives of the Study ....................................................................................................... 19
1.4 Limitations of The Study .................................................................................................... 19
CHAPTER 2.0 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................. 20
2.1 Study Approach .................................................................................................................. 20
2.1.1 Supply potential ........................................................................................................... 20
2.1.2 Wood Demand ............................................................................................................. 20
2.1.3 Policy and legal environment review ........................................................................... 22
2.2 Study Methods .................................................................................................................... 23
2.2.1 Literature review .......................................................................................................... 23
2.2.2 Stakeholders consultations ........................................................................................... 23
2.2.3 Visits ............................................................................................................................ 24
2.2.4 Data analysis ................................................................................................................ 24
CHAPTER 3.0: WOOD PRODUCTS SUPPLY .......................................................................... 25
3.1 Forest Resource Base .......................................................................................................... 25
3.1.1 Public forests ................................................................................................................ 25
3.1.2 Forests in community and private lands ..................................................................... 25
3.1.3 Trees on farms.............................................................................................................. 25
3.2. Factors Affecting Supply Quantities of Wood................................................................... 26
3.2.1 Area of productive forests ............................................................................................ 26
3.2.2 Yielding capacities ....................................................................................................... 26
3.2.3 Policies and legal frameworks ..................................................................................... 26
3.3 Potential Supply Analysis ................................................................................................... 26
3.3.1 Forest areas .................................................................................................................. 27
3.3.2 Management of forests and yields .............................................................................. 27
 3.4 Computing Supply .............................................................................................................. 32
3.4.1National wood supply potential .................................................................................... 33
3.4.2 Wood supply potential by Counties ............................................................................. 35
3.4.3 Imports ......................................................................................................................... 35
3. 5 Other Sources of Wood ...................................................................................................... 35
3.5.1 Wood from bush lands and wooded grasslands. .......................................................... 35
3.5.2 Illegal trade .................................................................................................................. 36
3.5.3 Farm residue and wood waste ...................................................................................... 36
CHAPTER 4.0 WOOD DEMAND .............................................................................................. 37
4.1 General Overview of Wood Products Demand .................................................................. 37
4.2 Summary of Factors Affecting Wood Demand .................................................................. 39
4.2.1Population ..................................................................................................................... 39
4.2.2 Levels of income .......................................................................................................... 40
4.2.3 Price of wood ............................................................................................................... 40
4.2.4 Processing recoveries. .................................................................................................. 40
4.2.5 Utilization efficiencies ................................................................................................. 41
4.2.6 Alternative products ..................................................................................................... 41
4.2.7 Illegal export trade ....................................................................................................... 41
4.3 Wood Demand Analysis ..................................................................................................... 41
4.3.1 Consumption or demand centers based study .............................................................. 42
4.3.2 Per capita based demand analysis ................................................................................ 43
4.3.3 Population .................................................................................................................... 45
4.3.4 National wood demand ................................................................................................ 45
4.4. Exports ............................................................................................................................... 46
4.5. Round Wood Conversion ................................................................................................... 46
4.6 Wood demand by counties .................................................................................................. 48
CHAPTER 5.0 CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY .................................... 49
5.1 Current Supply .................................................................................................................... 49
5.1.1 National wood supply potential ................................................................................... 49
5.1.2 Wood supply potential from counties .......................................................................... 50
5.1.3 Supply Situation ........................................................................................................... 50
5.2 Demand of Wood ................................................................................................................ 51
5.2.1 Demand situation ......................................................................................................... 52
5.3 Supply and Demand Balances ............................................................................................ 52
 5.3.1 National wood supply and demand net balances ......................................................... 53
5.3.2 Wood supply and demand balances situation ............................................................. 54
5.3.3 Optimum potential supply............................................................................................ 54
5.4 Supply and Demand Balances by Counties ........................................................................ 55
5.4.1 Net wood producing counties ...................................................................................... 55
5.4.2 Net wood consuming counties ..................................................................................... 57
5.5 Forecasting Supply and Demand ........................................................................................ 58
5.5.1 Forecasting of supply ................................................................................................... 58
5.5.2 Results on forecasting of supply .................................................................................. 59
5.5.3 Forecasting of demand ................................................................................................. 60
5.5.4 Results of the forecasting of demand ........................................................................... 61
5.5.5 Projected supply and demand balances of wood ......................................................... 62
CHAPTER 6.0 POLICY AND LEGAL ENVIRONMENT ......................................................... 64
6.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 64
6.1.1 Forest management challenges in Kenya .................................................................... 64
6.2 Policy Environment ............................................................................................................ 65
6.2.1 Policies with positive influence on wood supply and demand .................................... 65
6.2.2 Factors with positive influence on wood supply and demand ..................................... 69
6.2.3 Factors that negatively impact on wood supply and demand ...................................... 70
CHAPTER 7.0 WAY FORWARD FOR THE REDD+ STRATEGY ......................................... 75
8.0 REFERENCE LIST ................................................................................................................ 77
9.0 ANNEXES .............................................................................................................................. 80
Annex 9.1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................................. 80
Annex 9.2 Forests within Counties Area .................................................................................. 82
Annex 9.3 Forests within Counties Area under National Parks ............................................... 84
Annex 9.4 Counties Wood Supply Potential ............................................................................ 85
Annex 9.5 National Available Supply ...................................................................................... 87
Annex 9.6 Counties Population ................................................................................................ 88
Annex 9.7 Counties Wood Demand ......................................................................................... 90
Annex 9.8 Counties Suppy and Demand Net Balances ............................................................ 93
Annex 9.9 Counties Wood Supply and Demand Net Balances Summary ............................. 103
Annex 10.1 Institutional Roles and Responsibilities .............................................................. 105
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Forest type areas under different management regimes ................................................ 26

Figure 2: Graphical presentation of national wood supply potential by forest types ................... 35

Figure 3: Wood products demand ................................................................................................. 46

Figure 4: Graphical presentation of available and lost wood volumes after processing .............. 47

Figure 5: Wood supply quantities from different forests .............................................................. 50

Figure 6: Wood demand quantities for various products .............................................................. 52

Figure 7: National net balances from potential supply and current demand ................................ 54

Figure 8: Forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya. ................................................. 60

Figure 9: Forecasting of the demand of wood products in Kenya. ............................................... 62

Figure 10: Forecasting of the net balances (supply-demand) of wood products in Kenya........... 63
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: National area for different forest types ........................................................................... 27
Table 2: Average Yields from Cypress plantations ...................................................................... 29
Table 3: Average yields from Pine plantations ............................................................................. 29
Table 4: Average yields from Eucalyptus plantations .................................................................. 29
Table 5: Plantation forests area cover ........................................................................................... 30
Table 6: Weighted yields from operations summed up from three species .................................. 30
Table 7: Yields from private and community eucalyptus plantations .......................................... 31
Table 8: Yields from trees on farms ............................................................................................. 32
Table 9: Summary of yields in m3/ ha for different products by different forests types .............. 32
Table 10: National wood supply potential .................................................................................... 33
Table 11: Summary of the per capita demand of the four wood products .................................... 44
Table 12: The national demand of forest products (m3) ............................................................... 45
Table 13: Recovered wood volumes after processing of end products ........................................ 46
Table 14: Available and lost volumes by products after processing ............................................ 47
Table 15: Summary of Wood supply potential from forested areas and trees on farms ............... 49
Table 16: National wood demand quantities ................................................................................ 51
Table 17: National supply potential and demand net balances ..................................................... 53
Table 18: National optimal supply quantities .............................................................................. 55
Table 19: List of Net wood producing counties............................................................................ 55
Table 20: Net Consuming Counties .............................................................................................. 57
Table 21: Forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya ................................................. 59
Table 22: Forecasting of the Demand of Wood Products in Kenya ............................................. 61
Table 23: Projection of the Net Balances (Supply-Demand) of Wood Products in Kenya .......... 62
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First and foremost our sincere gratitude to Mr. Alfred Gichu, the National REDD+ Coordination
Officer for his invaluable support and guidance during the implementation of this study, the
Kenya Forest Service Director Mr. D.K Mbugua for guidance and participative engagement and
for allowing access to key KFS staff and information sources.

Sincere appreciation goes to KFS staff from different sections for valuable inputs in form of data
and information. Earnest recognition goes to individuals and institutions that have provided
valuable data and information through participation in expert group meetings, inception and the
validation workshops. We appreciate valuable inputs from forest sector stakeholders who sent
comments and proposals through emails and telephone. Finally, thanks to all who made this
study a success in one way or another including Wanley consulting services team, led by David
Maingi.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Background
Deforestation and forest degradation accounts for about 18% of global greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions. Reducing these emissions has been a global goal through REDD+, a climate change
mitigation strategy that encourages developing countries like Kenya to reduce their rates of
deforestation and forest degradation and to enhance sustainable management and conservation of
existing forests. Kenya has voluntarily opted to embrace this mechanism and is in the process of
formulating Readiness strategies and implementation framework to support its implementation.
In this endeavor, Kenya is receiving support from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)
and the United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest
Degradation (UN-REDD). This study seeks to provide critical information on demand and
supply of forest products to support formulation of effective REDD+ strategy options as part of
this strategy development process.

Forest Sector
Forests in Kenya fall in two broad categories; natural and plantation forests. Trees on farms,
though not forests, are also considered in the wood supply analysis, as they currently provide
substantial amount of wood and have shown to be a key source of wood in future. Forests are
further classified into three groups based on their ownership and management characteristics as
public forests, community forests and tree on farmlands.

Public forests are government owned and are managed to provide goods and services like water
from natural forests and commercial and subsistence requirements of wood from the plantations.
Due the increased demand of environmental benefits, management of natural forests on
government lands has been set aside for their production leaving wood production to plantations.
Management of plantations is done through management plans detailing treatments, roles of
different stakeholder and final products.

Community forests are owned and managed by respective communities and county governments.
Forest management is done through use of management plans detailing treatments, roles of
different stakeholder and expected final products. In some cases adherence to the management
plans requirement is severely compromised. If deviation from sustainable management
negatively impact goods and services provision, the government through KFS is mandated to
declare the forest a provision forest and takes over its management until sustainability is
restored.

There exist plantations forests established by private firms and individuals on their lands or
leased land. These plantations are managed to provide wood requirements by the firms and for
commercial purposes. In most cases, these are Eucalyptus forests managed for transmission
poles, fuel wood and in recent past have been utilized for sawn timber. Some firms have made
arrangements with land owners to produced wood for them mainly tobacco and tea companies.
Tea estates requiring large quantities of fuel wood for curing purposes have established tree
plantations whose wood surplus are being sold as poles. Other private firms like Kakuzi and
individual investors in tree plantations grow trees targeting markets offering higher returns like
transmission poles and recently charcoal.

Agro forestry systems are practiced in farms through introduction of trees in an effort by famers
to meet their wood requirements increase farm productivity and raise farm incomes. Adoption of
tree planting by farmers has been well received with planted acreage increasing over the years.
The government through KFS provides extension services to farmers by training them in tree
management, harvesting and marketing.

Wood products from all these forests are harvested and processed into products for the intended
consumers. Regulation of cutting from public forests is governed by KFS while county
governments regulate operations in community forests. Trees on a farm are generally few to
support a marketing process and farmers make own decision on what and when to cut, and who
to sell to. In some cases, control in the management of trees on farms becomes difficult as tree
are owned by farmers whose operations are guided by household needs like wood fuel, finances
and sometimes food production prompting conversion of tree cover to other uses. Private
plantations are managed according to owners’ objectives which are highly commercial driven.

The study
This study aims to collate and analyze data on demand and supply of various forest wood
products and their flows within the country over the next twenty years. In particular, the study
carries out an assessment of the existing and potential demand of wood products (timber, poles,
charcoal and firewood) and supply potential of various forested ecosystems; natural forests,
plantations and trees on farms. The study establishes supply potential of wood products, their
demand, supply and demand balances and forecasting future scenario under various influencing
factors. The study also describes the policy and legal environment within which supply and
demand operates and proposes recommendations for the national REDD+ strategy.

Wood Supply
Kenya forests cover an area of 4,986,676 ha of which natural forests cover an area of 4,754,378
ha while plantations cover an area of 232,298 ha. Public or gazetted natural forests cover an area
of 905,357 ha. Natural forests in community lands cover 3,849,021ha of which 596,099ha were
found to be national parks, hence 3,252,922 ha being the forest area under community
management. Public plantations cover an area of 138,152 ha and community/private plantations
cover an area of 94,146ha.

Public natural forests are principally managed for provision of environmental services though
minimal wood fuel collection by forest adjacent communities is allowed. These forests have a
sustainable yield for wood fuel of 0.9m3 per ha per year. Natural forests within community and
private lands are managed for environmental services as well as for provision of wood products
and have been assessed in past studies (KIFCON 1994) to have an average annual yield
capacity of 1.5m3 per ha
Forest plantations cover an area of 232,298 ha comprising of 138,152ha of public plantation
forests and 94,146 ha of community and private plantation forests. Public plantations forest areas
are managed at average rotation of 28 years with a sustainable yielding capacity of 407.5m3 of
wood per ha per year based on normal forest principle incorporating thinning’s and clear fells.
Plantations in community and private lands are managed for a wide range of products for
household and farm uses. These products are managed for multiple uses and are harvested at
varying ages with an average rotation age of 21 years, (noting that most of them are harvested for
fuel at relatively young ages.) Yield calculations from these forests in 2012 was estimated at
407.35m3 per ha per year.

Farmlands in the country cover an area of 9,939,255 ha and are currently estimated to have an
average wood biomass of 17.58m3 per ha. Trees on farms are managed to meet household needs
and for commercial purposes. Farmers are believed to have relatively short investment time
horizon and end up harvesting their tree at an average age of 8 years. By application of forests
normalization principle where allowable cut is equivalent to trees in the oldest age class out of
the 9,939255 ha of trees about 1,242,406.88ha in the 8 year age class are harvested annually.

Summing up national wood supply potential from the three sources adds up to 31,372,531m3 per
year. Public forests supply 2,825,426m3, community/ private forests 6,705,592m3, and trees on
farms 21,841,513m3.

Calculation of wood supply quantities from counties was analyzed by overlaying county
boundary maps on the forests area map to show forest areas falling in each county. Using
different yielding capacities for various forest types, supply potential for each county was arrived
at. Wood supply potential from all the 47 counties was calculated with Narok County having the
highest potential of 2,973,398m3 while Mombasa, the second largest urban center, has the lowest
potential of 43,358m3. Nairobi, which is highly urban and a major wood consumption center, has
a low supply potential of 189,525 cu m3.

Wood products under study are timber (sawn wood, pulp, ply and particle boards), poles
(construction and transmission poles) and wood fuel (fire wood and charcoal). Past studies have
shown that different forests have different yielding capacities for these products depending on
the forests management objectives. Public natural forests have capacity to yield 0.9m3 of wood
fuel per ha (KIFCON 1994). Public plantations yields 262.20m3 of timber, 44.50m3 of poles,
100.80m3 of wood fuel per ha (KFS 2013). Community natural forests yield capacities for
timber, poles and wood fuel have been seen to be 0.4m3, 0.2m3, and 0.9m3 respectively per ha.
Yield analysis of plantations in community and private forests show an average yield for timber
at 88.17m3 per ha, poles at 140.66m3 per ha and wood fuel at 178.52 per ha. Trees on farms yield
timber, poles and wood fuel amounting to 3.52m3, 1.23m3, 12.83m3 respectfully. Applying yield
capacities of the different forest types for the three products, national potential supply for timber,
poles, fire wood and charcoal was calculated to be 7,363,414m3, 3,028,907m3, 13,654,022m3,
and 7,358,717m3 respectively.
Wood demand
National per capita wood demand is estimated at 1m3 per year. With a population estimate of
41,700,664 in the year 2012, national wood demand was estimated at 41,700,664 m3. Per capita
demand of various wood products was found to be 0.1262m3 for timber, 0.0338m3 for poles and
0.84m3 for wood fuel (0.4485m3 for firewood and 0.3915m3 for charcoal). Based on the national
population for the year 2012, demand quantities for timber, poles, firewood and charcoal are
calculated to be 5,262,624m3, 1,409,482m3, 18,702,748m3 and 16,325,810m3 respectively.
Demand at county level is based on each county’s population and national per capita demand to
arrive at the consumed quantities. Nairobi County has the highest demand at 3,389,582m3 while
Lamu County has lowest demand at 109,667m3.

Supply-Demand Balances
Critical analysis of wood supply and demand quantities indicated a national wood deficit of
10,328,134m3. Factors contributing to this deficit were also analyzed to be relative small forest
area, low average yield, poor processing and utilization methods as result of poor adoption of
effective technologies and practices.Net balances of wood supply and demand were analyzed for
all the 47 counties indicating Samburu County as having the highest surplus of 763,751m3 of
wood, while Nairobi County has the highest deficit of 3,200,057m3 of wood.

Projected Supply and Demand

Forecasting future wood supply and demand within the planning period revealed a gradual
increase in supply and demand towards the year 2032. Supply is set to increase from the current
31,372,531m3 to 35,727,900m3, with that of timber and poles increasing by 22.1%, firewood by
10.0% and for charcoal by 9.5% by the year 2032. Likewise, demand is estimated to increase to
50,712,100m3, with that of timber increasing by 43.2%, poles by 58.2%, firewood by 16.1% and
charcoal by 17.8% by the year 2032.

Projection of net balances shows an increasing deficit margin for wood into the future, increasing
by 26.5% from 10,328,130 m3 in 2012 to 13,064,250 m3 in 2032. Surplus for timber is projected
to decrease by 7.4% and for poles by 4.0% in the forecast period. Firewood and charcoal deficit
is projected to increase by 18.3% and 19.1% respectively. Proposed REDD+ intervention
measures in this study aim at enhancing supply and curbing high and rising demand so as to
attain and maintain surpluses in future. These interventions include promoting tree planting
through capacity development and incentives, reduction of wasteful processing and utilization
and streamlining research recommendations and effective monitoring in forestry development.

Policy and legal review

Policies and legal frameworks governing wood production and utilization in Kenya aim at
ensuring sustainability. Their effectiveness have not been realised as there exist an imbalance
where supply is lower than demand. The supply is low because possible optimal targets have not
been reached due to inadequate management practices, low forest areas which are continually
being lost to agriculture, settlements and other developments while demand is high because of
increasing population, excessive dependence on wood and wasteful processing and utilization
technologies.
Analysis of existing policies indicates inadequacy on their part by negatively impacting on the
production goal. Existence of inefficiencies in wood processing and utilization is also a clear
pointer to policy inadequacy. Sustainability in wood production and consumption is dealt with
in the Constitution and supported by policies and legislations, however, mandated institutions
have not effectively implemented them. Failure in implementation can be attributed to
inadequate capacities on the side of these institutions, spill over from other policies negatively
impacting on sustainable forestry and slow policy review processes making them insensitive to
changes in the forest sector.

There is need to review existing policies enabling them to adequately address issues in the forest
sector while strengthening institutions mandated to enforce sustainable management and
conservation of forest resources.
.
Way forward With REDD
Current wood supply level needs to be improved raising it higher than demanded quantities
subsequently reducing chances of forest degradation and deforestation. There exists production
or supply enhancing opportunities which if supported by policies can greatly improve supply.
The REDD+ strategy is expected to provide management and policy options geared towards
increasing wood supply in areas such as:-
 Policy review and harmonization to correct negative impacts on wood supply capacities.
 Land policy review to solve land tenure issues especially in communal lands where
existing systems do not favour long term enterprises like wood production as ownership
of trees may vary over time.
 Development and implementation of forest management plans to ensure long term
sustainability.
 Capacity building to enhance growing, processing and marketing of wood products
enabling forest institutions implement research findings on appropriate tree species, good
management practices and relevant technologies.
 Create incentives in tree planting and management for land owners such as a forestry
fund and tax exemptions for forestry tools to encourage tree growing.
 Enhance forest certification and carbon trading to enable wood exports to
environmentally conscious consumers and also attract financial resources.

Demand of wood products is higher than supply creating room for deforestation and forest
degradation calling for the REDD+ strategy to create and operationalize options that will lower
and curb rising wood demand through such avenues as:-
 Continued research and capacity development on efficient utilization practices to lower
wastage.
 Provision of incentives to encourage adoption of viable alternative energy sources mainly
solar and biogas.
 Review regulations on timber and charcoal production with intention of ensuring use of
advanced efficient technologies. This should aim at providing means of acquiring these
technologies which might be expensive for local and small scale timber processors and
charcoal producers.
CHAPTER 1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Forests and Climate Change

Forests play a vital role in combating climate change (Parker C. et al, 2009). Trees take up
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere converting it into wood thereby fixing carbon. In vice versa
deforestation and forest degradation releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere commonly
referred as carbon emissions. In this regard, reducing deforestation and forest degradation
becomes critical to the global climate change reduction efforts. Global deforestation and forest
degradation make forest sector the second largest contributor to global warming, contributing
about 17% of GHG emissions into the atmosphere (Parker C. et al, 2009). Sustainable forest
management practices and enhancement of forest carbon stocks are key intervention measures
being developed to reverse this scenario. Deliberate strategies to reduce the current level of
deforestation and forest degradation, maintain the existing forests and where possible increase
the areas under forest cover are being developed in developing tropical countries as part of
REDD+ Readiness.
Kenya is a low forest cover country, with a present cover of only 6.9%. In spite of this low
cover, the country relies heavily on its forest resources to steer economic growth through the
provision of the much needed forest goods and services. Over 80% of Kenyans depend on forests
for provision of domestic energy needs in terms of either charcoal or firewood (Githiomi J.K and
Oduor N. 2012). Kenya is also an agricultural based economy and forests are recognized as
important in supporting a vibrant agricultural sector by protecting water sources and increasing
farm productivity and incomes. Forests are equally important in supporting the energy and
construction sector.

1.2 RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

REDD+ as a climate change mitigation process seeks to reduce emissions arising from
deforestation and forest degradation of the existing forests and while exploiting available
opportunities for improving management of forest resources and, enhancement of carbon stocks
through reforestation and afforestation programs. REDD+ has not gone into implementation but
developing tropical countries are currently engaged in Readiness Activities. Readiness activities
involve designing, development and application of strategies and programs to reduce emissions
and enhance carbon sink capacities of forest ecosystems.

Kenya has embarked on a REDD+ readiness process. As part of this, a broad national strategy
and implementation framework will be put in place to facilitate access to international finance to
reduce carbon emission and to enhance emission removal potential of forests. In order to support
key components of the REDD+ Strategy additional information is required to support
formulation of strategy options. Currently, information on demand and supply of wood products
is lacking.
Wood biomass is important to estimate emission factor and removal enhancement of carbon for
REDD+ mechanisms. Human interventions that influence wood biomass stocks affect the carbon
stocks associated with wood biomass in the forests.
The study proposed here is intended to carry out a critical examination of demand-supply
scenario of forest products in general, in particular wood products. This study is important
because its findings will be used as an input in constructing national reference emission level and
monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system for Kenya.
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The broad objective of this study was to carry out an assessment of the existing and potential
demand of wood products (timber, poles, charcoal, and firewood) and supply potential of various
forested ecosystems, both public and private. Specifically this study sought to, among others:-
 establish the current and future demand of products (timber, poles and wood fuel);
 establish the current and projected future supply potential of different forest management
 develop scenario of future demand and supply of wood products under changing social
political and economic environment – including but not limited to price, food security,
economic growth, internal migration and infrastructure development,
 Suggest the way forward for the national REDD+ strategy

1.4 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The major limitation of the study was unavailability of recent data in some areas. Under such
circumstances study results from some relatively older sources were used while in other cases
expert group estimates were used.
CHAPTER 2.0 METHODOLOGY
2.1 STUDY APPROACH

2.1.1 Supply potential

Supply potential of wood products is the amount of wood that a country has the capacity to
sustainably produce expressed in cubic meters per annum. Different forests are able to supply
different amount of wood depending on species, management objective and the ecological zone
of the forest among many other factors.

Forests types
Forests in Kenya can be either categorized into either natural or plantation forests and are
managed under three different land tenure systems; public, community and private forests. Trees
on farms are also considered as a wood resource base from where significant quantities are
harvested and hence computed among the rest of forest types. These sources have unique
ownership and subsequently varying management objectives. It is from these forests that supply
potential of wood products for the purpose of this study is analyzed. In addition, wood imports
are also factored in as supply quantities

Products
Forests produce a variety of goods and services but this study is restricted to timber, poles and
fuel wood (fire wood and charcoal). Timber includes round woods or logs going for saw wood,
pulp wood and ply logs. Poles include wood used for construction, transmission and building
while fuel wood refers to both fire wood and charcoal.

Supply potential analysis

Analyses of supply potential of wood in this study adopted the basic principle that is:

SP = A × Y

Where:
SP = supply potential from a given forest or tree cover
A = area in hectares
Y = Yield per unit area over a given period of time

To analyze potential supply of wood products (timber, poles, and fuel wood), data and
information of the resource base was gathered from literature providing information on different
forest areas in relation to forest cover, yields and management objectives. Data from KFS was
used providing data on forest areas covered by identifiable forest types. KFS has generated forest
cover maps from satellite images and on superimposing layers of administrative county
boundaries, different forests type’s areas within counties were also analyzed.

2.1.2 Wood Demand

Demand of wood is the quantity a given population consumes at a given period of time. It is
dependent on population, economic factors like price, products availability and consumer
preferences. Forests produce a wide range of products but for the purpose of this study demand
for timber, poles and wood fuel was considered.
To study demand of wood products within a given area or country two methods are commonly
used. These methods are:-
 products based consumption within an area over a time period
 Sampling methods to determine average per capita consumption

a) Products based studies on consumption

Products based studies of demand involves collection of all product consumption quantities
within an area over a given period of time. The method attempts to sum up all quantities of
products consumed. The method is suited for relatively small areas involving one or very few
products and gives accurate data if consumption data is available or can be captured. High costs
involved hinder the method application at national level.

b) Per capita based method

Per capita based study establishes the average rate of use per person per year through sampling.
With a large representative sample, purposed for specific wood products, this method is reliable
for regional and national consumption studies. A number of studies based on demand per capita
undertaken for specific wood products were considered and deliberations were made on adoption
of their results. Adoption of individual product per capita study results depended on area
covered, study approach and sample size.
Demand study and analysis relied heavily on data collected from various sources on population
and internal migration, and quantities of wood products consumed. Data was mainly from KNBS
publications such as Kenya National Integrated Households Budget Survey, Kenya National
Census Report, Economic Survey and Statistical Abstract. Per capita consumption of different
wood products has been studied by FAO-WISDOM studies, Regional Timber Trade studies,
Kenya Forest Master Plan and Kenya Indigenous Forests and Conservation project (KIFCON).
The KFS inventory and marketing sections provided demand on wood based on quantities
harvested from different forest types, exports and imports.2.1.3 Critical analysis
Critical analysis is the assessment of supply and demand quantities of wood and their spatial and
temporal interplay in the market. The analysis provides information on wood deficit and surplus
conditions, their magnitudes and projected future scenarios. The results provide important
information for policy design and forest resources management planning.

Determination of current wood demand and supply

At the national level, current demand and supply quantities are calculated using 2012 as the base
year. Analysis of wood supply potential from forested areas is based on their yield capacities
while demand is based on Kenya’s population and the average wood consumption (per capita)
per person per year.

Net wood demand and supply balances

Net balance is the difference between the supply potential and demand quantities for a given
product within a given period. Analysis on wood products net balances in this study has been
done both at national and county levels. Net balances at national level were arrived at by
subtracting analyzed demand quantities from supply potentials and were done for all wood
products combined and for the specific wood products separately.

Similarly net balances at county level were arrived at by subtracting demand quantities from
supply potential for each county. In the same analysis, demand quantities for each product were
subtracted from the supply potential giving the status of each product at each county.

Forecasting of wood supply and demand

Forecasting supply is the process of estimating the quantity of wood that producers will supply at
a future date while forecasting demand is estimating the quantity of wood consumers are
anticipated to consume at a future period. Demand and supply forecasting is done using an
econometric technique that models relationships between causal or influencing factors. For
supply the influencing factors include the forest area, policy environment and yields while
factors influencing future demand include population growth, economic growth, technology
change and yield capacities.Assumptions about future changes in these variables are then used to
make projections of future supply and demand.

Reliable and timely forecasts are an important aid to weighing options in the development of the
national REDD+ strategy. A number of forecasting methods were considered for this study
which included random walk (Xt=Xt-1+et) moving average method and Global Forest Product
Model (GFPM) among others. This study however adopted the Global Forest Product Model
(GFPM) to forecast demand and supply of wood products because of its wide use.

GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products
developed as part of FAO’s on-going work on forestry sector outlook studies. GFPM model was
adopted for this study since it uses historical data collected and interpreted by FAO since 1994.
Furthermore, FAO continues to explore ways in which the quality of future supply and demand
projections can be improved through improvements in the collection of forests products statistics
and the models used to make such projections. It has been calibrated to produce forecasts of
forest resources and markets for about 180 countries including Kenya and 14 forest product
categories (commodity), timber, poles, firewood and charcoal included. It uses data submitted
from constituent countries to FAO since 1994 and is continuously being updated to increase the
accuracies of its estimates.
Year 2012 was used as the base year and magnitudes of change for each aspect considered is
projected to the year 2032. For purpose of inputs into the model quantitative parameters of
factors affecting supply and demand were collected. Supply determining factors were found to be
forest area changes, yields capacities and policies while those affecting demand included
population growth and internal migration, economic growth, policies, price of other alternative
products to wood, infrastructure and technology changes.

2.1.3 Policy and legal environment review

Policy and legal review involved an analysis of the policy and legal framework within the
country as well as institutions mandated with their implementation. Some of policies and legal
instruments considered are the Constitution, Vision 2030, land policy and land act 2012, energy
policy, draft forests bill 2013, charcoal rules 2009, timber harvesting regulations 2009, farm
forestry rules 2009 among others. This review was focused on understanding how wood supply
is delivered under the existing policy environment in order to determine whether the supply is
operating at the optimal level and if not identify reasons why optimal levels are not achieved.
The review also seeks to identify policies negatively impacting on supply and demand of wood,
policy hindrances, legislative bottlenecks and institutional weaknesses

Supply and demand analysis provided the magnitude of deviation from the expected state for
defining intervention in policy. Analysis on optimal production levels from our forests provided
information on possibilities of increasing supply. Analysis of deviation of available quantities
from expected supply potential will inform policy review on the possibility of improving
efficiency in production, processing and by reduction of waste which are the best avenues of
improving demand.

2.2 STUDY METHODS

This study on demand and supply of wood products in Kenya is broad and complex. In view of
the complexity of the study, products involved and time allocated, the study approaches adopted
had to be simple and articulate.

2.2.1 Literature review

Most of the study findings relied on the available literature to provide background information
relating to forest wood products as well as factors influencing demand and supply. Literature
review provided important information on forest areas and types, their areas and changes over
time, population numbers and growth, internal migrations, economic growth, imports and
exports, existing policy and legal environment, institutional status in terms of performance,
capacity, collaborations and reforms among others. Sources comprise a long list of published
documents by either the government, its agencies, NGOs, learning and research institutions
among others.

2.2.2 Stakeholders consultations

Workshops
Workshops brought together experts enabling deliberations on specific issues, provide
information and possible sources of reliable data and information. Two workshops were
conducted, the first being at the inception of the study and the other at its culmination. The first
workshop meant to review planned activities and approaches to be adopted for the study while
the second workshop purposed to critique the draft report, where additional inputs were
incorporated. The participants were key stakeholders, experts and decision makers in the forest
sector.

Key informant interview

Supply information
Consultations targeting supply information were held with KFS divisions mandated with
forest management planning, plantation development, natural forest conservation and
 management, extension and dry lands services, private forest owners, community forest
managers, and NACOFA representatives.

Demand information
Consultations to gather information on demand were held with specific stakeholders
dealing with specific wood products. Stakeholders included KFS marketing section,
Ministry of trade for export data and saw millers associations. Poles demand data was
sourced from KPLC and Kenya Bureau of Statistics. Fire wood and charcoal stakeholders
included research scientists from energy ministry, KEFRI and KFS extension and dry
lands section officers.

Focus Group Discussions

Team of experts in various fields, relevant to this study, were brought together to discuss and
critique the study approaches and results. About four such meetings in areas of wood supply,
demand, policy and production chains were held and outputs used to shape the final results.

2.2.3 Visits
Visits were made to offices, sites and areas where required data could be availed. Areas visited
include two forest stations, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), KFS and sawmills.
Discussions held during these visits provided valuable inputs into the study.

2.2.4 Data analysis

Each team member, after the collection of data, collated, analyzed and presented the findings as
required by the terms of reference. The components included, for ease of analysis, were supply
component, demand component, forecasting component and policy review component.
Appropriate analytical tools expected for use include guided questionnaires, trees growth
models, demand projection formula and specific policy analysis criteria.
CHAPTER 3.0: WOOD PRODUCTS SUPPLY
3.1 FOREST RESOURCE BASE
Kenya’s forest resource base occupies an area of 4.39 million ha (KFS). These forests fall into
two categories; public and community/private forests. In addition Kenya has an aggressive farm
forestry programme that is credited with a high proportion of trees on farmlands and within this
study supply from these trees resources is considered within the supply analysis.

3.1.1 Public forests

Public forests are managed by the government for provision of forests goods and services. These
forests cover an area of 1,043,509 ha; plantations covering 138,152 ha and natural forests
occupying an area of 905,357 ha. Public plantation forests are managed for the supply of
industrial wood requirement, construction and other timber requirements, and for wood fuel.
Public natural forests are explicitly managed for provision of environmental services such as
biodiversity, water catchment protection, climate amelioration etc. No commercial extraction of
wood products is carried out except collection of fire wood from wind falls and other dead trees
by forest adjacent communities.

3.1.2 Forests in community and private lands

Forests in community and private lands cover an area of 3,347,069 ha. These forests comprise
both natural forests (3,252,922 ha) and plantations forests (94, 146 ha). These forests are
managed by respective communities and private land owners according to their respective
management objectives which are mainly provision of both goods and services. Community
forests are important sources of building poles and wood fuel in the country. Private plantations
and wood lots are owned by private individuals or firms investing in wood production for
commercial purposes mainly for poles and wood fuel.

3.1.3 Trees on farms

Private farmlands have incorporated tree growing with other crops with the aim of increasing
farm incomes, increasing agricultural productivity and providing wood requirements at the farm
level. Tree growing on farms have been acknowledged, by different stakeholders and studies, as
a fundamental source of wood in the country (Kenya Forest Master Plan 1994). In this regard,
the government has encouraged farmers to maintain a minimum 10% of their farms under trees
as required by the constitution. This has achieved an increase in trees cover at a rate of 10,000 ha
per year equivalent. In Kenya, arable lands with a potential to support tree growing occupy an
area of 9,939,255 ha within agro ecological zone 1,2,3,4. (KFS, 2013)
Figure 1: Forest type areas under different management regimes

Forest areas
3500000
3000000
2500000
Area Ha

2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Natural Plantation Natural Plantations
PUBLIC COMMUNITY
Forest type

3.2. FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPLY QUANTITIES OF WOOD

3.2.1 Area of productive forests

Area covered by forests is an important factor in wood supply quantities where the larger the
area the more wood is produced.

3.2.2 Yielding capacities

This is the capacity of a given forest has to produce wood. This is dependent on many factors
like tree species, climatic conditions, forest site, level of forest degradation, deforestation and
management practices adopted.

3.2.3 Policies and legal frameworks

Policy environment determine environment in which wood production takes place sometimes
providing incentives in wood production and in some cases negatively impact on production.

3.3 POTENTIAL SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Potential supply of wood is dependent forest area and the forest yielding capacity. In this study
Forest areas are analyzed at two levels, national and regional or county level largely supported
by data availability and administrative units. In the new system of governance, Kenya is
administered at national and county level where all data sets are prepared to ease planning and
administration at these two levels. While forestry is favoured by eco region based analysis,
results and recommendations might not anchor well in a country where administration is county
based. To enable development of an effective REDD strategy into which results from this study
will inform, national and county based analysis have been adopted.

3.3.1 Forest areas

Forest areas used in this study both at national and county level are as analyzed by KFS.

National forest areas

The areas covered by different forest types have been established by the most recent study as
detailed below.

Table 1: National area for different forest types

Gazzeted forests Community forests Agro forests

Forest Type Natural Plantations Natural Plantations Trees on farms
Area (Ha) 905,357 138,152 3,252,922 94,146 9,939,255
Source: KFS, 2013

Plantations in government lands were established to provide industrial wood requirements from
quick growing trees reducing pressure on natural forests. With increasing demand for
environmental services conversion of government forests to plantations is being discouraged
with planting concentrated in harvested and un-stocked areas. Within community and private
lands tree planting has been well adopted. In 1990, area under plantations forests in community
and private forest was less than 20,000 ha while plantation forests in public forests were 180,000
ha (FD Economics section reports 1990). Analysis of current plantation areas show public forest
plantations to be 98,578 ha stocked and 39,574ha un-stocked area while plantations in
community and private being 94,146ha indicating a significant shift in plantation establishment
from public forests to community, private and farm lands for provision of wood.

Forests within counties

Forests within counties were determined by superimposing the national forest cover map with the
county boundary map layer. Just like the national supply computation, county supply is
considered by factoring the size of each forest type in either of the counties. Analysis of forest
products supplied from farmlands within each county was also done and results were as shown in
Annex 9.2

3.3.2 Management of forests and yields

Forests are managed to provide goods and services. Quantity and quality of wood coming from
harvesting trees is dependent on the mode and aim of management. Quantity is expressed in
terms of yields from a given area while quality is the suitability of wood produced to meet the
desired use. Yield is the quantity of wood that can be sustainably removed from a given forest
over a period of time without affecting the production capacity of the growing stock in future
periods. Yields are expressed in m3 per ha per year and vary from one forest type to the other
depending on species composition, stocking and management objective. In Kenya, yield studies
have been carried out by the government, research institutions, NGOs and private organization.
Yields on wood fuel have been done by a number of organizations on very small areas of study
and were considered in this study.

Public forests
Public forests are owned and managed by the government through KFS. There are two types of
forests under this category; natural and plantation forests. The constitution and the Forest Act
2005 are supportive of community participation in management of public forests. Management
of these forests is done through management plans prepared to enable realization of intended
products at optimal and sustainable levels. In areas where community and private investors have
leased part of the forest, management guidelines are provided to ensure that good practices are
adhered to. Harvesting plans are prepared and implemented centrally by KFS through licensing
of capable individuals and firms to carry out prescribed operations like thinning and harvesting.

Public natural forests

These are natural forest ecosystems with no or minimal human interference in their
establishment and comprise of indigenous tree species. These forests are managed for provision
of environmental services with no commercial extraction of wood products. However, forest
neighboring communities collect wood fuel from dead trees for their house hold use. Yield
studies from these forests were carried out by KIFCON in 1993 and Kenya Forest Master Plan
in1994 through national wide studies. Both KIFCON and the Master Plan arrived at potential
wood fuel yields of 0.9m3 per hectare (KFMP 1994) which was adopted for this study as no other
nationwide study has been undertaken in recent times.

Public plantation forests

Plantation forests have been established in Kenya by replacing natural forests with quick
growing exotic trees for provision of both industrial and household wood needs and thereby
reducing pressure on the slow growing natural forests. Yield studies in form of growth models
for plantation tree species have carried for use in guiding their establishment and in prescribing
appropriate silvicultural treatments. The growth models of the main plantation species, that is,
cypress, pine and eucalyptus exist and are used in yield estimation both for thinning ratios
determination and stumpage sale volume calculation. In this study data used for analysis of
plantation yields were based on the volumes assessed by the KFS inventory section using these
models in three years (2010, 2011 and 2012).
Yield data from plantations is from the following operations undertaken in the plantations:-

1. Thinning
This is an operation carried out to reduce tree stocking to give room for better growth on
the remaining trees by removing poorly formed and weak trees. Volumes realized from
thinning were estimated based on the Cypress and Pine empirical growth model data and
similarly that of Eucalyptus thinning or reducing of coppices operations. For the three
species averaging of trees ages at which operations are taking place had to be done as
treatments or operations are not being done at the prescribed years.
 2. Clear fell or harvesting is supposed to be at age 30 but takes place at ages between 27 to
35 years in public forests and for the purpose of this study a rotation period of 28 years
was adopted based on the average cutting age in year 2012 (KFS 2012).

Products realized from Pine and Cypress plantations include timber (round wood logs), poles,
and fuel wood from the small diameter logs, broken, deformed logs and branches. For
Eucalyptus, timber logs are assessed from large trees above poles diameters (34cm). Trees or
logs with diameters between 12 cm and 35 cm are sold as transmission and construction poles
while low diameters and branches are sold as fuel wood.

Table 2: Average Yields from Cypress plantations

Cypress Units in m3
Operation Average Age Products
Timber Poles Fuel wood
1st thinning 7 3 14
2nd Thinning 12 9 16 18
3rd Thinning 22 41 5 10
4th Thinning
Clear fell 30 254 3 12

Table 3: Average yields from Pine plantations

Pine Units in m3
Operation Average Age Products
Timber Poles Fuel wood
1st thinning 7 2 12
2nd Thinning 12 23 14 16
3rd Thinning 22 43 10 17
4th Thinning
Clear fell 30 243 5 16
Table 4: Average yields from Eucalyptus plantations
Eucalyptus Units in m3
Operation Average Age Products
Timber Poles Fuel wood
1st Coppice reduction 7 4 12
2nd Coppice reduction 12 10 24
3rd coppice 22 6 28 60
4th Thinning
Clear fell 30 24 90 245
Source: KFS Forest Inventory section and Wanley economic database

Yield analysis from public forest plantations was done by weighting areas covered by the tree
species in 2010 as reported by KFS Inventory section which was 53,266 ha for cypress, 21,585
ha for Pine and 13,932 ha for Eucalyptus which gave weighting factors of 0.6 for cypress, 0.243
for pine, and 0.157. Area covered by other species was not used in weighting as they were seen
to introduce a bias in the final calculation. Table 5 below shows areas of the three tree species
and their calculated weighting factors.

Table 5: Plantation forests area cover

Species / Cover Area ha % or Weight
Cypress 53,266 0.6
Pine 21,585 0.243
Eucalyptus 13,932 0.157

SUB TOTAL 88,783 1

Others spp 8480.34

Un stocked 39573.97
TOTAL PLANTATION AREA 138,152
Source: KFS Forest Inventory section

Calculation of yields was done by summation of yields from all operations and weighted as per
the species area. By use of an excel spreadsheet each species weighted volume yield for all
operation could be done on a single entry as shown in Table 6 below. E.g. Volume of wood
harvested at the end of the rotation period was summed for the three species to give 281.9 m3
which included volumes from 1st, 2nd and 3rd thinning operations. The Table show volume yields
from public plantations to be 407.4 m3 per ha, yield from 1st thinning being 16.1 m3 per ha, 2nd
operation 44.0 m3 per ha and 3rd operation 65.4 m3 per ha.

Table 6: Weighted yields from operations summed up from three species

Operation age Timber Poles Fuel wood TOTAL

1st operation 7 0 3 13 16.1

2nd Operation 12 11 15 18 44.0
3rd Operation 22 36 10 20 65.4
Clear fell 30 215 17 50 281.9
TOTAL 262.2 44.5 100.8 407.4

Community / private forests

Community and private forests were considered to be all forests outside public forests. They fall
on community and private lands and are managed for varying end products. Within community
lands tree ownership is common with every individual having right to use the tree resource to
meet personal household wood requirements including income generation. Investing in
management and protection is minimal as no one has the responsibility resulting to lack of
effective control measures or management guidelines.

Where management committees have been formed, their main responsibility is protecting forests
from non-community members’ interference in their utilization.
Natural community forests
Natural forests, within community areas unlike public forests are managed to meet community
wood requirement both at subsistence and commercial level.

Studies on yields were initially carried out by KIFCON and later through the Kenya Forest
Master Plan indicating that yields for three wood products was 0.4m3 per ha for timber, 0.2m3
per ha for poles and 0.9m3 for wood fuel giving a total sustainable yields for wood of 1.5m3 per
hectare of natural forests in community forests (KFMP 1994) . No recent yield studies at the
national scale have been carried out and therefore the KFMP results were adopted.

Private plantations (in community or private lands)

Private plantations in community and private lands are owned and managed differently from
public plantations to meet owners’ wood requirements and for sale to raise incomes. To calculate
average yields from these forests, calculations were based on a) yields recorded from past studies
b) private plantations yield records and c) discussions and data presented by members of the
Extension and Dry land Forests Division of KFS. The following data and information were
collected:-
a) Community and private forest rotation age is between 18 and 25 years (21 was taken
as average)
b) Species composition is Cypress 18%, Pine 5% and Eucalyptus 75% with most of
plantations being grown for poles and fuel wood. Other species are grown but their
area (although not available) was believed to be relatively small.
c) Yield averages from cypress and pine plantations were discussed and agreed to be
similar to those of public forests as most of them are on lands bordering government
forests.
d) Eucalyptus was seen to be harvested for fuel wood, building and transmission
calculated to be at an average age of 21 years with thinning done once between ages 8
and 10 years to provide building poles and fuel wood. Yields at Clear fell were
analyzed or observed to be higher than those of public forests with some yielding as
high as 560 m3 per ha in private forests and 250 m3 per ha in small wood lots.
Table 7: Yields from private and community eucalyptus plantations
Operation Age Products Units in m3 TOTAL
Timber Poles Fuel wood
Thinning / coppice reduction 10 25 36 61
Clear fell 25 24 154 186 364
TOTAL 24 179 221 424

From the analysis, one hectare of Eucalyptus plantation yields an average 424 m3 of wood with
61m3 coming from thinning or reduction of coppice and 364 m3 from clear-fells.

Trees on farms
Trees planted on farms supplement farmers’ incomes and provide wood for household energy
and other wood requirements. The rotation age for trees on farm was estimated to be 8 years as
most of the trees are planted for household energy where cutting start as early as year 3 from
planting. Studies on farm trees yields have been carried out in relatively small scale to be used
for national analysis leaving results by KFMP 1994 to be used for the analysis. According to
master plan, farm trees had a biomass of about 9.3m3 of wood in a hectare and was seen to grow
at a rate of 0.5m3 per ha per year. Growing this yield to the year 2012 resulted to a biomass of
about 17.58m3 per ha in farmlands which are occupying an area of 9,939,255 ha. Farm trees are
harvested at average of 8 years resulting to an annual harvesting area of 1.242,406 ha (equivalent
to the area of the oldest age class). Further analysis on this harvested volume could have been
done by application of an allometric formula to get a more precise wood volume. There existing
no allometric equation that can be used, however, Kenya, through an ongoing project “Improving
forest resources assessment in Kenya” by KFS and KEFRI will soon develop such an equation.

Product yield ratio realized through the master plan studies were adopted as yield ratios for
different wood products that is 3.52m3 for timber, 1.23m3 for poles and 12.83m3 for wood fuel.
Wood fuel yield of 12.83m3 was also distributed at 8.34m3 for fire wood and 4.49m3 for
charcoal.

Table 8: Yields from trees on farms

Products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Fire wood Charcoal
Yield m3 per ha per year 3.52 1.23 8.34 4.49 17.58

Table 9 below is a summary of yields from different forests and that of different forest products
produced from them.

Table 9: Summary of yields in m3/ ha for different products by different forests types
Wood Products
Forest types Rotation Timber Poles Fuel wood TOTAL
period
Natural forests (Public - 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.5
and Community)
Public plantation 28 years 262.20 44.50 100.80 407.5
forests
Community/Private 21 years 88.17 140.66 178.52 407.35
plantations
Trees on farm 8 years 3.52 1.23 12.83 17.58

3.4 COMPUTING SUPPLY

Supply potential of wood products from forests and farms is expressed in volume per given area
over a time period and is done by application of the simple principle of multiplying area of the
forest by its yield in a given period of time.
 SP = A×Y

Where:
SP = supply potential from a given forest
A = area in hectares
Y = wood yields per unit area
Analysis of wood supply potential of the area covered by each forests type and the potential yield
of wood from each forest type was done.

3.4.1National wood supply potential

Public forests
Public plantation forests on the other hand cover an area of 138,152 ha. Applying the principle of
a normal forest, annual allowable cut area is equivalent to the fraction of rotation age to the total
forest area. Average cut age for public plantation forest is 28 years and therefore, the annual
allowable cut (138,152/28) is 4,934 ha. Natural public forests occupy an area of 905,357 ha with
sustainable supply potential of 0.9m3 per ha of fuel wood.

Community/private forests
Natural forests within community lands cover an area of 3,252,922 ha and are managed to supply
the four products at an average yield of 1.5m3 of wood per ha per year. Similarly, plantations
within community and private lands cover an area of 94,146 ha, as done to the public plantations,
their annual allowable cut area is equivalent to that of the total area divided by the rotation age
(94,146/21) which is 4,483.14ha.

Trees on farms
Trees on farms are managed for wood fuel and domestic construction materials mainly for
building and fencing and if possible raising farm incomes. Area of farmlands with tree growing
potential is 9,939,255 ha with a biomass calculated to be an average of 17.5m3 per ha. Trees on
farms are harvested at average of 8 years and by application of normal forest principle where
annual allowable cut area is equivalent to the area oldest age class then harvesting area from
farms is 1.242,406 ha and with average biomass of 17.5m3 per ha gives an annual potential
yield of 21,742,120 m3.

Supply potential for different products from these forests is based on products yields as indicated
in table 10. Having established the areas covered by forest types and the yields expected from
each forest type, computation of potential yield is shown below.

Table 10: National wood supply potential

National Wood Supply Potential
Wood Products
All
Forest Type Timber Poles Wood fuel
Products TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Public Forests
 Natural F. Area (Ha) 905,357
Yields (M3/ha) 0.9 0.585 0.315 0.9
Public natural Forests
814,821 0 0 529,634 285,187 814,821 814,821
Supply Potential
Plantation F. Area (Ha) 4,934.00
Yields (M3/ha) 407.5 262.2 44.5 65.52 35.28 100.8
Public Plantation
2,010,605 1,293,695 219,563 323,276 174,071 497,347 2,010,605
Forests Supply Potential
Sub-total Public Forests 2,825,426 1,293,695 219,563 852,909 459,259 1,312,168 2,825,426
Community and Private
Forests
Natural F. Area (Ha) 3,252,922
Yields (M3/ha) 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.59 0.32 0.9
Natural Forests Supply
4,879,383 1,301,169 650,584 1,919,224 1,040,935 2,927,630 4,879,383
Potential
Plantation Area (Ha) 4,483.14
Yields (M3/ha) 407.35 88.17 140.66 116.04 62.48 178.52
Plantation Forests
1,826,208 395,279 630,599 520,215 280,116 800,331 1,826,208
Supply Potential
Sub-total 6,705,592 1,696,448 1,281,183 2,439,439 1,321,051 3,727,961 6,705,592
Community/Private
Forests
Trees on Farms
Allowable Agro Forests
1,242,406
Area (Ha)
Yields (M3/ha) 17.58 3.52 1.23 8.34 4.49 12.83
Farm trees Supply
21,841,513 4,373,272 1,528,160 10,361,673 5,578,407 15,940,080 21,841,513
Potential

National Supply
31,372,531 7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 20,980,209 31,372,531
Potential
% CONTRIBUTION BY PRODUCT 23 10 44 23 67 100
*Forest areas divided by rotation period to present harvestable area per year sustainably.

National wood supply potential from all forest types is shown to be 31,372,531 m3 with public
forests having a potential to supply 2,825,426m3, forest in community and private lands
6,705,591m3 and trees on farms 21,841 513m3. National supply potential for timber, poles, fire
wood and charcoal is 7,363,414m3, 3,028,907m3, 13,654,022m3, and 7,358,717m3 respectively.
Figure 2: Graphical presentation of national wood supply potential by forest types

Wood supply potential by products

25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

-
Timber Poles Fire wood Charcoal

3.4.2 Wood supply potential by Counties

Wood supply potential by counties was calculated for the same way as the national calculation
using forest area and the yield per ha. The results are shown in Annex 9.4

3.4.3 Imports
Importation of wood products is done to meet shortfalls and bring in wood products which are
not readily available locally. In 2012, Kenya imported 93,999m3 of sawn timber from East and
Central Africa countries, 32,520m3 of poles from South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda (KFS
Annual Report). Volume of plywood imported was 3,847m3, paper and paper products about
217,000m3(Statistical abstract, 2012). A total of 347,366m3 in volume of wood products was
imported.

3. 5 OTHER SOURCES OF WOOD

3.5.1 Wood from bush lands and wooded grasslands.

Big areas of Kenya’s Arid and Semi-arid Lands are covered by bush lands and scattered trees
which cannot be classified as forests. In these areas ownership of trees is common with every
individual having right to use the tree resource to meet household wood requirements. Lack of
management plans and the right for every individual to cut trees for house hold use in these areas
result to unsustainable production of charcoal. Land tenure systems in these areas give harvesting
rights to individual with no management or conservation responsibilities which is an issue the
REDD+ strategy will need to address. The Master Plan studies showed that wood supply from
ASALs had reached a deficit level by 1994 and conservation was seen as the best management
option. Even though further harvesting from these areas is depletion, supply of wood products,
mainly charcoal continues to be sourced from these areas. This should be addressed through
application of appropriate management requirements backed with strict adherence to sustainable
quantities.
3.5.2 Illegal trade
Harvesting of indigenous hard woods from public forests is banned and the small quantities from
community forests and farmland cannot meet their high demand. This has resulted to illegal
importation by traders to take advantage of the high returns. Quantity of wood that is illegally
imported into the country is not established. However, a study on timber movement across three
Kenya-Tanzania boarder points in 2012, records that undervaluing of wood on transit is a norm
mainly to evade taxes and other legal requirements.

3.5.3 Farm residue and wood waste

Farm residue is used to supplement scarce wood energy required for domestic needs. In year
2000, sources of biomass residue in Kenya included; maize 1.6 million tons/yr., Sorghum 76,000
tons/yr., wheat 42,000 tons/yr., millet 46,000 tons/yr., beans 77,000 tons/yr., rice 1,000 tons/yr.,
cassava 12,000 tons/yr., coconut 6 tons/yr., cashew nut 2tons/yr., coffee 300,000 tons/yr., tea
60,000 tons/yr. and sisal 8,000 tons/yr. (Biomass Energy Resources in Kenya, 2012)

Wood waste is mainly used in urban areas by 3.7% of households as compared to 2.1% in the
rural areas. The consumption is about 15,600 tons equivalent to 23,088m3 (1.48m3/ton),
estimated from industrial by-product production (sawdust, timber rejects, off-cuts etc.) (Gender,
Improved Cook Stoves and Development in Kenya, 2010)
CHAPTER 4.0 WOOD DEMAND
Demand is taken to be the quantity of wood required by a given population over a period of time
to meet their needs. For the purpose of this study, national demand of wood products is the
quantity of wood products (timber, poles and wood fuel) required to meet the needs of the
41million people in Kenya. Demand studies and analysis involve determination of aggregation of
individual, house hold and institutional needs. Accurate wood products demand analysis will
feed into the REDD+ strategy options formulation in production and utilization that support
sustainable management and conservation of country’s forest resources.

4.1 GENERAL OVERVIEW OF WOOD PRODUCTS DEMAND

Demand for wood products by consumers triggers need and quantity of round wood extracted
from forests and other trees establishments. Each wood product has unique production,
processing, marketing and utilization chain characteristics from the other product. It is this
uniqueness that brings in variation in quantity demanded for each product. For purposes of this
study, timber incorporates industrial wood which include sawn logs, veneer logs and pulp wood.
Poles include transmission and construction poles including fencing posts while wood fuel
include fire wood and charcoal.

Timber

Timber is produced from public plantations, community and private forests, and from farms.
Sourcing timber from government plantations requires the processor to be a licensee allowed to
operate on a given plantation based on firm’s capacity to harvest the wood efficiently. Public
forests have been the major supplier of timber to processing firms in Kenya until 1999
presidential moratorium of harvesting of wood from public forests. This resulted to shortage of
timber in the market prompting the then county council and private forest owners invest in
commercial wood production and managed to supply the market for the period the ban was in
effect. During the period there was proliferation of small scale wood processors who were less
skilled and used inefficient technologies and practices in timber processing. Currently public
forests have the potential to supply 17.6% of wood for timber. Forest in county lands managed
by county government and private owners has the potential to produce 23% of the timber which
is processed by operators appointed by forest management committees, and private forest owners
to convert trees into sawn timber. Farm trees have a potential to supply 59.4% of timber where
wood is processed by individuals providing the services to farmers using mobile saw benches
and sometimes power saws which are found to be cheaper and available even though they are
very costly with very low recoveries subsequently low returns to the wood owner.

Marketing and distribution of timber from the processing centers is done by the (licensees)
processors themselves in public and sometimes in community forests or sold to timber merchants
who transport the timber to the markets in community, private forests and farm trees. In most
cases, timber from farms is sold to the local people as the quantities are small to be transported to
long distances.
Markets for timber produced from public forests and sometimes community forests are not
confined to the local county or administrative boundaries but dependent on high returning market
centers as the distributers have the capacity to market widely. Wood which is potential for timber
produced from farms and sometimes from community forests is processed locally into products
with high local demand not necessarily timber. In rural setting, fire wood is a necessity which is
be met with available wood from the farm before other products are considered. Lack of credible
wood valuation and market information by small scale producers has distorted economic value of
timber production. Timber brokers have exploited the ill-informed and desperate small scale
wood producers through ill bargaining.

Timber demand have been distorted by factors such as the status of forest policy formulation and
implementation especially the timber harvesting rules, lack of proper market structure and
organization, limited access to market and market information, lack of adequate knowledge on
tree inventory and valuation and technical data on the forest products in the market. In addition
to these bottlenecks county governments are expected to come up with revised county rules on
production, utilization and marketing of wood products which are geared towards local needs. In
all these cases the REDD strategy is expected to provide inform and options for removing the
bottlenecks.

Poles
Poles production is from all forests and is produced for transmission, construction and farming
requirement like fences. Transmission poles have provided a significant incentive to private
wood producers leading to establishments of numerous tree plantations and treatment plants
across the country. In 1994 public forests had potential to supply over 60% of poles demanded
but in 2012 the order has changed with public forests have the potential to supply 7%,
community / private forests 42.3% while farms has the potential to supply 50% of all poles.

Commercial poles producers have heavily invested in woodlots where the most preferred species
is eucalyptus. In recent times, this has proved to be a lucrative investment attracting
establishment of pole scouting and processing plants across the country. Small scale tree growers
have also been engaged as out growers supplying demanding firms.

Poles processing is simpler and cheaper procedure that involves identifying quality trees in terms
of size, straightness of the trunk and species. Cutting into size and treatment involves less
wastage compared to other products like timber.

Firewood
Firewood, an important source of energy for cooking at household and commercial levels in
Kenya is produced from all types of forests. Just like timber, fire wood harvesting from public
and partly from community forests is done by licensees who cut and market it. Fire wood from
community, private forests and farm trees is cut and processed on site by the owners who after
satisfying their needs sell the surplus. Fire wood is a wood product required in almost all rural
households, can be produced by all land owners and can use any form of wood. Fire wood has
relatively lower return than other wood products a factor that limits possibility of its long
distance distribution as the costs involved cannot be met. This has limited distribution of fire
wood form forested areas to non-forested dry areas where wood vegetation’s are being exploited
unsustainably.

Most rural households plant trees or wood lots for their energy supply, however, industrial
firewood demanding firms are organizing the small land owners into groups to supply them with
wood as have been evident in tobacco and tea producing areas. Some of these institutions
establish plantations for their wood supply and also nurseries to provide seedlings to surrounding
communities in order to source wood in proximity.

Charcoal
Charcoal is mainly produced for urban markets and with increasing population and urbanization,
charcoal market share is steadily growing. Charcoal is an important energy source as it is used
by 82% of urban households (MoE 2002) and hospitality industry. Its annual retail value is
estimated to be KES 80 Billion (FAOSTAT) with livelihood support of about 2.5Million
Kenyans (ESDA, 2005). Charcoal is sourced from community and private forests including farm
trees where in most cases it is produced for income generation. Charcoal producing investors are
coming up establishing eucalyptus plantations for transmission poles and charcoal production
with good returns but the quantities involved are low to cause significant impacts. With limited
income generating options among communities with forest lands and in low rainfall areas
charcoal production has become important causing deforestation to the already over exploited
tree cover.

Charcoal processing is mainly done through earth kilns that have been reported to be highly
inefficient resulting to very low recovery rates. Attempts to promote adoption of fairly efficient
brick kilns have been met by a range of challenges including cost of equipment’s and additional
costs in charcoal production. The law respects land owners rights making it difficult to control
and regulate charcoal production from community and individually owned lands. Charcoal
demand centers are in major urban centers whereas its production and processing is done at
stump site by many small producers. In an attempt by government to control production transit
procedures and requirements are put in place. Other than streamlining charcoal production and
marketing it is forced to go underground causing more damages and more difficult to control.

4.2 SUMMARY OF FACTORS AFFECTING WOOD DEMAND

Demand for wood products is influenced by a number of factors including:-

4.2.1Population
Demand depends on the number of people consuming a product. An increase in population
translates into more quantities being consumed. Population changes over time cause increased
demand over time. This rate of increase is not uniform in all counties but varies from county to
another. Variation in population within counties, in addition to birth rates, is influenced by
migration of people from one region to another like the rural urban migration and refugee influx
in some areas from within and outside the country. REDD+ strategy is expected to address
current and future demand in view of population changes.

4.2.2 Levels of income

Generally income levels determine quantities of wood consumed where higher levels of incomes
result to high demand for goods and services, including forest products. Higher incomes are also
associated with changing tastes like shifting from wood fuel use to gas cooking. In Kenya
income levels are not the same over time as positive economic growth which has been reported
in the last years indicate increased incomes and therefore increased rates on wood consumption.
Incomes are not uniform in all regions with those regions having higher incomes having higher
purchasing capacities as observed in urban centres like Mombasa and Nairobi.

Poverty on the other side contributes to low or reduced purchasing capacities and in an effort to
meet wood requirements poor communities tend to deplete forests resources at their disposal.

4.2.3 Price of wood

High prices of wood deter people from buying it and its products making them buy alternative
goods to wood like plastic products as household items and metal for construction in place of
wood. Prices of wood in Kenya tend to increase over time as supply and demand differences
increase making propensity to consume wood lower at household and commercial levels. This
might not be felt equally in all regions because some tend to produce their own wood by planting
but those where planting is not an option tend to rely on the already depleted wood resources.

4.2.4 Processing recoveries.

Wood is consumed in finished products form after processing of round wood or trees. During
processing or conversion significant amount of wood is lost depending on the technology and
the products being produced. A simple equation showing this loss is:

qd = fp + pw

Where

qd - quantity of round wood demanded

fp - volume of finished products or recovered volumes
pw - processing waste

Quantity of wood recovered in form of processed product is expressed as recovery rate which
varies from low rates for charcoal (16%) to high recovery rates for products like poles and fire
which require minimal processing. In cases of low recovery rates, relatively more round wood
volumes are demanded to produce same product quantities than a process with higher recovery
rates. As technologies applied improve less and less quantities of wood are lost during
processing resulting to less round wood demanded. For example, sawing round wood by use of
power saws recover at an average 25% while better technologies like band saws has a recovery
of over 48%.
4.2.5 Utilization efficiencies
Wood after processing undergoes further losses through utilization methods used. Sawn wood is
shaped into right useable size according to products being made resulting to waste through
undersize by products, saw dust and poorly processed pieces. Poles after harvesting are cut into
right lengths resulting to waste. In both cases (sawn timber and poles) the un-utilizable products
are used as fire wood in boilers and for cooking. Utilization of wood fuel is also inefficient using
relatively small proportions of products while the rest is wasted. Traditional ‘three stone’ open
fire pits are known to have a lot of wastage in fire wood. Cook stoves using charcoal have been
seen to have very high waste and deliberate attempts have been made to encourage communities
and households to adopt improved cook stoves (ICS). However, despite some progress in
disseminating efficient wood and charcoal stoves, accessibility and socio-cultural factors have
hindered wider adoption of these stoves.

4.2.6 Alternative products

There exist alternative products which can be substitutes to utilization of wood which if their
usage is adopted less quantity of wood would be used. Alternative energy sources such as solar
energy, electricity, biogas and transmission poles substitutes like concrete and metallic poles,
non-wood building materials like iron bars and also, concrete tiles in place of wooden shingles, if
adopted would reduce quantity of wood used. Corrugated iron sheets have been preferred in
place of timber in house construction in informal urban centers and rural areas. Whereas most of
this alternative products and energy sources would reduce wood usage significantly, their
adoption is inhibited by initial cost involved as well as socio cultural factors. Lack of access to
wood substitutes has contributed to over reliance on wood for all purposes translating to high
wood demands. To a greater extent, these substitutes, where available could ease pressure on the
depleted wood resources and their promotion is an option the REDD+ strategy can pursue.

4.2.7 Illegal export trade

Illegal trade where wood destined for transit is diverted for local use has been reported. There
have been small scale studies on illegal exports of wood products from Kenya to neighboring
countries but no reliable reports have been made. There have been arrests of illegal charcoal
trade in Kwale for charcoal destined for Zanzibar. Small quantities of wood being illegally
exported through the un-manned part of the border with Tanzania have also been reported. Study
to provide information of all these quantities together have not been undertaken and need to be
undertaken.

4.3 WOOD DEMAND ANALYSIS

Various studies and methodologies have been undertaken to establish the volume of wood
consumed either as timber, poles or wood fuel. These studies involve the establishment of wood
requirements by population being considered over a period of time. To arrive at demand
quantities of wood products two study approaches have been considered in this study. The
methods have been used by other countries within the Eastern Africa region and have given very
reliable demand results. These include:-
 Demand or consumption centres based studies
 Per capita based studies
4.3.1 Consumption or demand centers based study
Consumption centres based demand study involves study or assessment of quantities of wood
products consumed by utilizing centres (household, institutions or commercial) summing them
up to give the total for a given region. The method collates consumption or demand quantities of
a single or small number of wood products in relatively small area. This method is suited for
research studies involving a single or small number of products in an institution or a relatively
small locality like a town. At national level the method has been attempted but the problem of
collecting data on all consumed quantities has proved a challenge and ended upon being used to
provide indicative figures which cannot be relied on in planning.

Timber
Attempts to asses volume of timber consumed in Kenya by summing up intakes by processing
centres like sawmill, saw benches have been attempted. In most cases, the results have ended up
giving estimates, as data from processing centres is not be available. Harvesting of wood from
forests in community land and farmland is done by use of mobile saws, power saws and pit
sawing at stump site and no records are available. KFS record on quantities of timber demanded
is based on round wood sales from public forest and quantities reported in transit permits from
community forests and farmlands. This method that does not capture households’ consumption
quantities sourced from their lands. This leaves out wood acquired by saw mills from community
and private forests and those from farms. In a study on round wood demand it was estimated that
annual demand of timber in Kenya is between 2 and 2.4 million m3 per year (Cheboiwo and
Githiomi, 2012).

Plywood
There are three plywood mills with a total annual capacity estimated at about 40,000m3.

Pulp wood
The pulp and paper industry in Kenya comprise of 13 companies operating most of which use
recycled paper as raw material and only one (The Pan African Paper Mill) is licensed to process
paper directly from forests. The Pan African Paper Mill although not operating in 2012 had
annual capacity of 450 000m3 of round wood which was being obtained from public forests.

Poles
There are only two major consumers of treated transmission poles in the country, Kenya Power
and Lighting Company (KPLC) and Rural Electrification Authority (REA). Transmission poles
are harvested from Eucalyptus species plantations both from public and private forests. Poles and
posts for construction come from eucalypts, Casuarina species, mangrove species, Agave
sisalana among others. Demand for transmission poles by KPLC 2012 stood at 440,000m3 most
of it was produced locally with about 10% coming from imports (KPLC 2012). Poles are used in
construction industry, building and fencing at household level sourcing large amounts from
private forests and farms whose quantities have not yet been established.
Fuel-wood
In Kenya about 68% of the energy consumed comes from wood, mainly as firewood for cooking
and heating. This method require substantial amount of funds and time and has not been carried
out at national level but estimated demand of 37million m3 have been reported. (KFS 2011)

Aggregate demand from consumption centers

Consumption based demand studies discussed above estimates total wood demand in Kenya to
be 39.88 million m3and in addition to this, total annual exports as per 2010 Statistical Abstract
figures are 25,000m3. This figure, as urged above, does not include timber demand by mobile
saw benches and power sawn operators and poles demand at for building and also for
construction purposes. In the absence of this data, the figure cannot be relied on with certainty.
Consumption quantities demand based study can provide good results when all forms of
consumption from different sources can be quantified. The method is appropriate for giving
rough demand estimates for particular industries and products but have challenges when used for
national demand analysis.

4.3.2 Per capita based demand analysis

Per capita demand is the average amount of wood consumed by a person in a population per
year. The method relies on studies or surveys on consumption quantities of wood products by
given population then establishing the average per person per given period of time. This method
is weak in that, it tends to ignore small centers/areas with unique consumption characteristics
assuming similarity over the study area.

Per capita method of study is:

• Suitable for extensive area of study with some degree of homogeneity
• Easier and cheap to carry out in terms of resource and time

Demand quantities calculation by use of per capita consumption is expressed in the following
equation

Q = pc x p

Where:
Q = Quantity consumed
pc = per capita (average consumption by one person per given time)
p = population in the area under consideration

In Kenya, per capita consumption of wood products has been estimated through a number of
studies including:-

Kenya Forest Master Plan

KFMP 1994 carried out consumption studies to establish national averages for different wood
products. The studies established per capita consumption of poles as 0.338m3, fire wood as
0.444m3 and charcoal as 0.552m3.
Ministry of Energy study on Kenya’s Energy demand, supply and policy strategy for
households, small scale industries and service establishments
This study was carried out in 2002 where 15 representative rural districts and 5 major urban
centers were covered. It established per capita consumption of charcoal to be 0.218m3 and that of
firewood as 1.037m3.

Wood Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping

A study by Wood Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping (WISDOM) was carried out in
2005 by FAO on wood energy in East Africa. This study was done in 10 Eastern African
countries by use of large samples to establish their final results which were quite relevant to the
areas studied. These areas were categorized as urban, rural general, rural settlement and rural
sparse each with unique per capita consumption. The average for these areas presents the
national per capita which is 0.392m3 for charcoal and 0.448m3 for firewood

KEFRI study on Sustainable Wood fuel production

A study by KEFRI in 2012 on Sustainable Wood fuel production found that there is a deficit of
wood energy supply in Kenya. Its base year was 2000 with a population estimate of 28.68
Million and a consumption of wood biomass per year of 35.12 Million Tones. This translates to a
per capita consumption 1.22 tons equivalent to 1.75M3 (conversion rate of 1.43M3/Ton).

The Kenya Forest Service strategic plan 2009-2013

The Kenya Forest Service strategic plan 2009-2013 has quoted per capita demand for wood as
1M3 as has been estimated by KFMP.

The criteria for adoption of per capita consumption estimates by various past studies, used in this
study was based on study area and sampling intensity in the study. Based on this, the study
adopted KFMP estimates for poles and WISDOM estimates for fire wood and charcoal due to
their wide study coverage at satisfactory intensity. It also upheld the 1m3 per capita consumption
of wood used by KFS. The per capita consumption of timber which has not been addressed in
any study was derived by getting the difference of poles and wood fuel from the KFS total wood
consumption figure making it to be 0.1262m3.

Table 11: Summary of the per capita demand of the four wood products
PER CAPITA DEMAND OF WOOD PRODUCTS (M3)
FIREWOOD CHARCOAL
TIMBER POLES TOTAL
SOURCE RURAL URBAN NATIONAL RURAL URBAN NATIONAL
WISDOM 2005 _ _ 0.648 0.249 0.4485 0.204 0.579 0.3915
KFMP 1994 0.0338 0.4444 0.0179 0.0925 0.0552
KFS Strategic
Plan 2009 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1
Per capita
adopted 0.1262 0.0338 0.4485 0.3915 1
Per capita express the average consumption per person. To establish total demand at national
level population figures are important and had to be included in the analysis.

4.3.3 Population
Population figures used in this study were those of the census carried out by the Ministry of
Planning, National Development and Vision 2030 in 2009 .The total population in the country
was reported as 38, 610,097. A population growth rate of 2.6% per annum for the years 2010,
2011, 2012 was factored in. Population estimates of 41,700,664 for 2012 were used for
computing the national wood demand by considering the per capita established.
To estimate wood demand at county level, the same population growth rate was assumed to be
consistent in all 47 counties. This gave the population for each county, as at 2012, as indicated in
Annex 9.6.

4.3.4 National wood demand

The national demand for wood products is given in in the table 12 below. National demand of
wood and of particular wood products is the product of the national population and the per capita
consumption of wood and of particular wood product.

Table 12: The national demand of forest products (m3)

NATIONAL DEMAND
PRODUCTS
TIMBER POLES FIREWOOD CHARCOAL TOTAL
PER
POPULATION
CAPITA 0.1262 0.0338 0.4485 0.3915 1

41,700,664 5,262,624 1,409,482 18,702,748 16,325,810 41,700,664

TOTAL NATIONAL DEMAND 5,262,624 1,409,482 18,702,748 16,325,810 41,700,664

National demand for wood products: timber, poles, fire wood and charcoal were calculated to be
5,262,624m3, 1,409,482m3, 18,702,748m3 and 16,325,810m3 respectfully. Figure 3 below is a
graphical presentation of wood products demand levels.
Figure 3: Wood products demand

National Demand for wood products

m3
18,702,748
16,325,810

5,262,624
1,409,482

TIMBER POLES FIREWOOD CHARCOAL

4.4. EXPORTS
Wood exports as recorded in statistical abstract 2012, indicates that the country exports minimal
volumes of timber. The export volumes in 2006 were 776,000m3 which declined to 25,000m3 by
2010. A study on timber movement across three Kenya-Tanzania border points for a period of
six months in 2012 indicates minimal volumes of wood exports. The study records 6m 3 of
timber, 47m3 of fire wood, 74m3 of charcoal and no poles were exported.

4.5. ROUND WOOD CONVERSION

Round wood is processed into the desired products by methods with varying efficiencies
resulting to some wastage which are already computed in the demand quantities. Timber
processing is done by sawmills, mobile saw benches, pit sawing and power saws. KFS records
indicate that quantity of wood processed into sawn timber by sawmills is estimated at 65% of the
total while mobile saw benches process 35% of total wood . Recovery rate by sawmills is
between 26% and 35% and average is taken to be 32% while that of mobile saws is at an average
of 25%. Other forms of processing take an average of 5% of total round wood and is wood
processed into plywood, pulp, paper and particle boards (Cheboiwo, Githiomi 2012), with
recovery rates of 95%. Processing trees into poles and fire wood is mostly done at stump site
with a processing efficiency estimated at 95% for both products. Round wood processing into
charcoal has the most inefficient conversion rate with 16% recovery (National Charcoal Survey,
2005). Below is table 13, showing volumes of wood products available after processing.

Table 13: Recovered wood volumes after processing of end products

RECOVERABLE SUPPLY (available) THROUGH PROCESSING
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Total
Mobile sawn Other Total
Saw mills saws wood forms Timber Fire wood Charcoal
National
Potential
Supply 4,561,267 2,456,067 7,017,334 346,080 7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 31,372,531
Recovery
rates 0.32 0.25 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.16
 Available
National
Supply 1,459,605 614,017 2,073,622 328,776 2,402,399 2,877,461 12,971,321 1,177,395 19,428,576
Source: KFS sawmilling section and charcoal survey 2005.

Total wood supply potential from the forests is calculated to be 31,372,531m3, processing this
volume by the existing technologies into the required products would realizes or recover
19,428,576 m3 in products (recoverable volume) indicating a conversion loss of 11,979,146 m3
which goes to waste as indicated in the table 14 below. If this conversion loss is minimized by
application of efficient methods fewer trees would be required to produce same volume of wood
products.

Table 14: Available and lost volumes by products after processing

Lost volumes through processing inefficiencies of raw forest wood
Timber Poles Fire wood Charcoal Total TOTAL
Supply Potential
7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 20,980,209 31,405,060
Available Supply
2,402,399 2,877,461 12,971,321 1,177,395 14,148,716 19,428,576
Lost Volumes
4,961,016 151,445 682,701 6,181,322 6,831,494 11,976,484
Percentage loss 0.67 0.05 0.05 0.84 0.33 0.38

As shown in table 14 above the highest losses are made through conversion of wood into
charcoal followed by timber both putting into waste 84% and 67% of wood being processed
respectively.

Figure 4 is a graphical presentation of potential supply for each product, quantity recovered
referred to as available volume and the quantity lost.

Figure 4: Graphical presentation of available and lost wood volumes after processing
16,000,000

14,000,000
Supply
12,000,000 Potential

10,000,000
Available
8,000,000 Supply
6,000,000
Lost
4,000,000 Volumes
2,000,000

-
Timber Poles Fire wood Charcoal
4.6 WOOD DEMAND BY COUNTIES
Demand by counties was calculated using the national per capita wood consumption and
population for each county. Annual wood demand by counties was seen to range from
109,667m3 for Lamu to 3,389,582 m3 for Nairobi. Demand quantities by products for each county
is shown in Annex 9.7
CHAPTER 5.0 CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND
SUPPLY
This analysis examines state of wood supply and demand assessing their interplay in various
locations, time and magnitude amongst various determining factors under current and anticipated
future environment. Within this study national and county level analysis of supply and demand
quantities has been done in the base year 2012. Forecasting of future quantities in the coming 20
years period has been done under varying supply and demand factors. The study carried out
assessment of the current and future quantities supplied and demanded with the aim of defining
and recommending possible interventions to achieve sustainability over the period.

5.1 CURRENT SUPPLY

Wood resource base
By use of satellite imagery showing forested areas and superimposing them with administrative
boundary maps, different forest types and their areas within public forests and counties were
analyzed. All forests outside public or gazetted forest areas were considered as community and
private forests. In the same analysis, areas under agro ecological zones 1,2,3,4 were categorized
as potential agro forest (trees on farms). Areas under national parks (see Annex 9.6) which are
managed for conservation were also identified.

5.1.1 National wood supply potential

Analysis based on yield capacities of different forests types including trees on farms gave the
potential yields as shown in the table 15 below.

Table 15: Summary of Wood supply potential from forested areas and trees on farms
National Wood Supply Potential
Wood products
All Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Forest Type Products Firewood Charcoal Total
Public Forests
Public natural F.
Supply Potential 814,821 - - 529,634 285,187 814,821 814,821
Public Plantation F.
Supply Potential 2,010,605 1,293,695 219,563 323,276 174,071 497,347 2,010,605

Community/Private
Forests
Community Natural
F. Supply Potential 4,879,383 1,301,169 650,584 1,919,224 1,040,935 2,927,630 4,879,383
Community/Private
Plantation F. Supply
Potential 1,826,208 395,279 630,599 520,215 280,116 800,331 1,826,208

Trees on Farms
Trees on Farms
Supply Potential 21,841,513 4,373,272 1,528,160 10,361,673 5,578,407 15,940,080 21,841,513

National Supply
Potential 31,372,531 7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 20,980,209 31,372,531
National wood supply potential was found to be 31,372,531m3, while that of timber is 7.3million
m3, poles 3.0 million m3, fire wood 13.7million m3 and charcoal 7.4million m3. Public forests
contribution to the total supply was calculated as 2,825,426m3, community/private forests as
6,705,592m3 and farm trees as 21,841,513m3. Below (Figure 5) is a graphical presentation of
wood supply potential from the three forest tenure systems

Figure 5: Wood supply quantities from different forests

VOLUME
VOLUME
21841513

6705592
2825426

Public Community/private Farm trees

5.1.2 Wood supply potential from counties

Analysis of wood supply potential for each county has be done using a similar model as done for
national analysis where yield capacities of each forest types and their respective areas in each
county were used and results are as shown in Annex 9.4.

5.1.3 Supply Situation

Forest area
Wood supply is dependent on forest type and area. Comparing Kenya with other countries in the
region, forest cover area is relatively small averaging at 6.99% of national land area and falling
below the recommended 10%. Forests are found in high potential areas which are also suitable
and targeted by other land uses thus reducing the possibility of high rates of increase in forest
cover as envisioned and recommended. In the past deforestation resulting from conversion of
forest lands to other uses has one of the main causes of forest cover reduction. To ensure
reduction of forest cover loss to other land uses, and where possible reverse the trend, the
REDD+ strategy options should aim at:-

 Creating awareness among tree owners on good forests management practices that make
returns from forest investment compare favorably with other land uses.

 Rehabilitation and restoration of degraded ecosystems and the dry lands.

 Increase incentives for increasing forest cover. This calls for improved management
practices, proper species selection, creation of awareness and incentives.
Yields
Forest yield have been looked at as the sustainably harvestable volumes in a given period of
time. Different forests types have varying yield capacities as a result of biomass stocking and
species composition. Past studies indicate gaps between current yields and expected optimal
yield capacities creating a viable entry point. Management of these forests towards optimal yield
capacities is a viable intervention in raising wood supply and subsequently reducing wood
deficit. These interventions include:-
 Use of improved forest management techniques including using the right species,
adopting good management practices in existing forests, reaching out to all land owners
motivating them to enhance tree planting.

 Tree planting in ASALs degraded forests pockets with the right species to raise the
supply from these areas to sustainably harvestable levels.

 Protection of the existing growing stocks against fires, illegal activities and other
calamities to ensure increased wood supply in future.

 Adopt policies that provide incentives in tree planting and those that protect existing
forest cover from conversion to other land uses.

 Development of land use plans at national and regional level

 Improved conversion efficiencies through tax incentives for high efficiency timber
conversion technologies

5.2 DEMAND OF WOOD

Demand has been observed to be closely related to number of people in a given locality and their
rates of wood consumption. Kenya has a population of 41,700,664 people with an average per
capita wood consumption of 1m3 per person per year translate to a national demand of
41,700,664 m3 per year. By use of the National per capita consumption of wood and that of wood
products demand quantities of the wood and various products has been calculated as shown in
table 16 below.

Table 16: National wood demand quantities

NATIONAL DEMAND
PRODUCTS
POPULATION 41,700,664
PRODUCTS TIMBER POLES FIREWOOD CHARCOAL TOTAL

PER CAPITA 0.1262 0.0338 0.4485 0.3915 1

TOTAL NATIONAL
DEMAND 5,262,624 1,409,482 18,702,748 16,325,810 41,700,664

National demand for wood is 41.7million m3 with fuel wood having the highest demand quantity
of 18.8 million m3 followed by charcoal with a demand of 16.32 million m3 both adding up to
35.08 m3. Timber and poles had a demand of 5.26 million m3 and 1.41m3 respectively.
Figure 6: Wood demand quantities for various products

Wood products demand quantities

Demand

18,702,748
16,325,810

5,262,624

1,409,482

TIMBER POLES FIREWOOD CHARCOAL

Figure 6 above shows the demand quantities of the various wood products.

5.2.1 Demand situation

National wood consumption per capita is 1m3 per year, which is used in planning. However,
wood is consumed in form of processed end products whose consumption varies from one region
to the other depending on socio economic conditions of the region. Urban centers consume
relatively more charcoal than rural settings. Timber is demanded in high proportions in industrial
and upcoming urban centers than rural areas. Poles consumption is relatively high in rural areas
where transmission works are being undertaken as well as where fencing and building of wooden
houses is taking place. Firewood is mostly consumed in rural areas.

Population control to curb rising demand require policy interventions which are long term in
nature leaving checking of wood consumption rates as viable option to limit high and rising
demand. This can be done through adoption of strategy options targeting:-
 Change or improvement of wasteful utilization techniques and practices through capacity
building and tax adjustments for wood working equipment’s’
 Promotion of alternatives products to wood.
 Review and adoption of policy and legal guidelines that regulate timber harvesting
methods and charcoal regulations

5.3 SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES

Forest managers strive to achieve a positive balance between demand and supply of wood
products in order to achieve sustainability. Positive balances indicate that supply quantity is
higher than demanded quantities while negative ones indicate lower supply quantities than
demand. Achievement of a positive state is the main task forest management guidelines and
plans pursue to achieve. Achieving and maintaining of this condition is a challenge because
factors determining supply are different from those determining demand and their effects change
over time.
In this study net balances are calculated based on the general formula:

Net balances = Supply – Demand

5.3.1 National wood supply and demand net balances

From the analysis, wood supply potential in Kenya is 31,372,531 m3 per year against a demand
quantity of 41,700,664.45 m3 per year leaving a difference of 10,328,133 m3. In normal
circumstances, whenever demand is higher than supply, shortages are experienced in the market
and prices tend to increase. At local level (farm and community level) where producers are also
the consumers, tendency to harvest from growing stocks to meet their pressing needs is the most
obvious option. Once this option is adopted, degradation and deforestation sets in. Intervention
measures in policies and management approaches need to be put in place to correct the situation.

National supply and demand net balances and their computation are shown in the table 17 below
whereas the county’s net potential balances, computed just as the national balances, are shown in
Annex 9.8.

Table 17: National supply potential and demand net balances

NATIONAL NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel
TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
National Supply
Potential 7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 20,980,209 31,372,531
National
Demand 5,262,624 1,409,482 18,702,748 16,325,810 35,028,558 41,700,664

NET
BALANCE 2,100,791 1,619,424 (5,048,726) (8,967,093) (14,048,349) (10,328,134)

From the analysis, in table 17 above, timber and poles indicate production surpluses of
2,100,791m3 and 1,619,424m3 respectively, while wood fuel (that is: firewood and charcoal)
indicate a production deficit of 5,048,726m3 and 8,967,093m3 respectively. Addition of all
surpluses and deficits from all products indicate a deficit of 10,328,134m3 per year. Although net
quantities of timber and poles are reflected as surpluses most of these volumes are utilized as
wood fuel (either charcoal or firewood) to cater for their unmet demand, hence experienced
deficits of timber and poles presently in the market.
Figure 7: National net balances from potential supply and current demand
25,000,000
20,000,000 National Supply
15,000,000
10,000,000 National Demand

5,000,000
NET BALANCE
-
Firewood Charcoal
(5,000,000)
Timber Poles Wood fuel
(10,000,000)
(15,000,000) Wood products

Figure 7 above shows graphical presentation of wood balances. There are potential surpluses for
timber and poles and deficits in wood fuel products charcoal and fire wood.

5.3.2 Wood supply and demand balances situation

National wood supply and demand indicate a shortfall in meeting existing demand. Under
normal circumstances this leads to:-
 Harvesting of growing stocks or cutting quantities above allowable cut limits which have
great impact on resource base to meet future demand
 High pricing of wood products making it less available to consumers
 Harvesting from bush lands and wooded grasslands.

Although the overall wood supply and demand balances is negative, supply of timber and poles
shows adequate potential supply resulting in surpluses. It is due to the large deficit in wood fuel
that makes overall wood supply and demand equation negative. Wood requirements like fuel
wood is a necessity people cannot do without and under such circumstances, tend to use high
quality wood that is meant for timber to uses like fuel wood.

At national level, policies that support increased wood supply must be adopted while
discouraging those that hinder supply.

5.3.3 Optimum potential supply

Studies indicate that Kenyan forests have not yet reached the optimum yielding levels as
analyzed in Table 18 below. The study found out optimal sustainable yields for indigenous
forests to be 1.5m3 per ha (KIFCON 1993), for plantations to be 480m3 per ha (KFS Inventory
records 2010) and for trees on farms a biomass volume of 27.0 m3 equivalent to 3.38 m3 per ha
(Master plan 1994). Assuming that in 2012 all forests were yielding at optimal level, the total
national supply potential would have been 43,814,180 m3 which is higher than demanded
quantity in 2012 of 41,700,664m3. This confirms that, if good practices, application of technical
guidelines, review and adoption of new policies is done, Kenya can meet its wood requirement.
Table 18: National optimal supply quantities
CURRENT OPTIMAL CURRENT
YIELD YIELD m3 SUPPLY (at OPTIMAL
FOREST TYPE AREA PER HA PER HA 2012) SUPPLY
Natural 4,158,279 1.5 1.50 6,237,419 6,237,419
Plantation 8,296 407.35 480.00 3,379,375 3,982,080
Trees on farms 1,242,406 17.58 27.7 21,841,487 33,594,682

NATIONAL OPTIMAL SUPPLY 31,458,291 43,814,180

5.4 SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES BY COUNTIES

Supply of timber from public forests is centrally done by Kenya forest service while supplies
from community forest and trees on farms are dependent on prevailing market conditions. In
both cases supply and demands are not confined to county boundaries. However, for ease of
packaging effective intervention measures, existing administrative units form the basic level of
analysis. Under the current prevailing conditions, good management practices are not adhered to,
in order to achieve owners’ objectives without management controls as market conditions that
guarantee higher returns form the destination or target markets for wood products. Analysis of
wood supply and demand by counties attempts to illustrate magnitudes in quantities supplied and
consumed as well as the possible flow of products from areas of deficit to areas of surplus. This
is the basic information to guide in formulation and choice of REDD strategy options for the
management of forest resources.

Analysis of wood supply and demand within counties was carried out and results shown in
Annex 9.8. Results on net supply and demand provided information on counties which placed
them into two categories namely: a) net producing, and b) net consumer counties.

5.4.1 Net wood producing counties

These are counties from which total wood supply quantities are more than total quantity
demanded showing a surplus which can be supplied to other counties. These counties are shown
in table 19 below with surplus quantities indicated.

Table 19: List of Net wood producing counties

Net Wood Producers
Baringo 720,628 Narok 2,054,365
Elgeyo Marakwet 664,255 Nyandarua 268,663
Kericho 288,275 Nyeri 240,293
Laikipia 156,984 Samburu 763,751
Lamu 367,292 Tana river 231,020
Nandi 88,589 West Pokot 689,154
Isiolo 14,298 Tharaka Nithi 52,616
There are 14 counties in this category with 9 of them being considered as from high and the
other 5 from low potential areas indicating that other factors not only forest production potential
are at play.

High potential area counties

These counties have in common relatively large forest areas and fall in the high potential areas
where area of farms capable of growing trees is proportionately big. They include Baringo,
Kericho, Nandi, Narok, Nyandarua, Elgeyo Marakwet, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi and Nyeri.
Wood production from these counties is favoured by climatic conditions resulting to high growth
rates. Average yield or supply from these forests is high and if well managed higher production
levels can be reached. Population densities in these areas are high and adoption of efficient
production methods would increase the positive net balances significantly. The REDD strategy
should consider these counties as having high potential of raising national wood supply to a level
of self-sufficiency.

Management of forests in these regions should aim at sustaining and where possible increase the
surplus condition through adoption of policies and governance approaches that:-
 protect the existing areas covered by forests and also the growing stocks,
 improve yield capacities and
 reduce wasteful harvesting and utilization

Counties from low potential areas

These are counties mainly in dry lands where growth rates are low with small pocket of forests
areas mostly in river basins. Counties in this category, although net suppliers or producers of
wood, are seen to have low population densities translating to low demand with sizeable amount
of forest cover cable of meeting the county wood demand. These counties include Isiolo, Lamu,
Samburu, Tana River, and West Pokot.

Although this study tends to analyze supply from tree cover that can be considered as forests
these counties have large areas of bush land and wooded grasslands which if well managed can
yield substantial amount of wood sustainably. Currently non sustainable trees harvesting or
cutting to produce wood fuel is taking place for sale to other counties to raise incomes.
The forest resources within these counties should be sustainably managed through:-
 improved management practices to enhance their production capacity,
 use of management plans in the management of these forests and
 reduced waste through fires and destructive utilization

 From this group, of counties with a positive net balance, only 3 counties have a negative net
balance for fuel wood though all other products balances are positive. These counties include
Isiolo, Nandi, and Nyeri. REDD+ strategy should, among other recommendations, target
raising production of wood fuel and introduce energy saving utilization means to ensure
surplus in wood.
5.4.2 Net wood consuming counties
These are counties showing lower supply quantities than demand. With high demand than supply
quantities, there is high likelihood of forest degradation and deforestation to meet the existing
short falls. Management objective of these forests is to reduce or eliminate these deficits. Table
20 below shows a list of net consuming counties.

Table 20: Net Consuming Counties

Net Wood Consumers

Bomet (354,171) Kisii (897,835) Nairobi (3,200,057)
Bungoma (673,990) Kisumu (589,830) Nakuru (38,464)
Busia (414,366) Kitui (480,422) Nyamira (335,328)
Embu (119,397) Kwale (172,581) Siaya (357,868)
Garissa (349,038) Machakos (845,982) Taita Taveta (193,814)
Homa Bay (257,705) Makueni (403,435) Trans Nzoia (77,770)
Kajiado (171,634) Mandera (1,024,096) Turkana (454,993)
Kakamega (887,024) Marsabit (96,835) Uasin Gishu (26,251)
Kiambu (1,005,349) Meru (174,592) Vihiga (450,306)
Kilifi (345,964) Mombasa (971,204) Wajir (557,774)
Kirinyaga (188,912) Murang'a (390,095)
Net consuming counties in high potential areas
Analysis of the forest resource and demand characteristics in these areas indicate:-
i) Small forest areas with high urban population, e.g. Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, and
Kiambu. These counties demand wood for commercial use and have low forest area
producing wood. These counties form the major market centers for wood from counties
with surplus in production

ii) High population densities with large forest areas with relatively large public natural
forests which are not managed for production of wood products like timber, poles and
commercial wood fuel. These counties include Kirinyaga, Kakamega, Muranga, Embu,
Meru, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru and Trans Nzoia

iii) High rural populations with small forest areas especially plantations making potential
supply relatively low. These counties include Bomet, Busia, Homa Bay, Kisii, Nyamira,
Siaya, Vihiga, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Machakos, Makueni, and Taita Taveta.

Intervention measures to be recommended for these counties should aim at:-

 Adoption of policies and incentives that promote commercial private tree planting.
 Demand reduction measures which include reduction of waste through adoption of better
processing and utilization technologies and adoption of good forest management
practices through use of management plans. Facilitate flow of wood from net producing
counties to these counties through marketing skills development and wood products
availability information flow among counties.
  Improve energy use efficiencies through promotion of efficient practices and
technologies
 Promotion of alternatives to wood products especially wood fuel like electricity, wind
energy and gas.

Net consuming counties in low potential areas

These are counties with relatively small forest resource base and with low population densities.
Tree regeneration and growth is hampered by poor climatic conditions. Counties under this
category include Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa and Marsabit.

To reduce further deforestation, intervention options in these counties should be:-

 Development of management plans to manage the small forests pockets.
 Use of wood alternatives like electrification, solar energy and biogas energy
 Energy conservation measures.
 Improvement of road network
 To enhance sustainable forest management practices of the already deforested and
degraded ecosystems in net consuming counties in low potential areas.
 Improved distribution and flow of wood products from surplus regions.

5.5 FORECASTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Forecasts of the future supply and demand for wood and wood products are an important aid to
planning and decision making in the forestry sector. The Global Forest Product Model (GFPM)
was used to forecast the demand and supply of wood products in Kenya. As mentioned earlier
GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products
(Buongiorno et al. 2003). It has data and parameters to produce forecasts of 14 forest products
(including Timber, poles and wood fuel) for about 180 countries including Kenya. The model
will be used to forecast the supply and demand of wood products in Kenya up to 2032. The
differences between the supply and demand will then be computed over the forecasted period.

5.5.1 Forecasting of supply

Forecasting of the supply of wood products was computed up to 2032 with 2012 as the base year.
The following factors were considered when forecasting:

Factors affecting supply of wood products

In order for the model to estimate the future supply of wood products, factors that are deemed to
affect it have to be input for the base year. These include:

Forest area
Forest area has a direct effect in the supply of wood products. An increase in forest areas
raises capacity to produce more wood. Changes in forest areas arise from tree planting
through afforestation programs and natural regeneration. Reduction in forest areas
 (deforestation) lowers the capacity to produce more wood and arises from harvesting,
forest fire and conversion of forest lands to other uses like settlements. All factors
affecting forest area were fed into the forecasting model.

Forest yield
Forest yield refers to volume of wood products capable of being harvested from a given
area at a certain time. Forest wood yielding capacity is affected by age of trees,
accessibility, forestry management regime, governing laws among other variables.
Degraded forests have lower yields. Forest yield affects the supply of wood products
since the higher the yield the higher the availability of wood products.

Economic growth
Positive economic growth enable higher resource allocation to forest management
including planting, protection and application of improved technologies all of which will
improve or raise wood supply quantities over time. Furthermore development of
infrastructure especially in heavily forested areas will give access to a wide range of
wood products.

Policies and management guidelines

Future wood supply has a direct relationship with forest management practices being
applied today. Management interventions are dependent on policies and guidelines being
applied. Policies may stimulate production while others discourage some forms of
consumption all affecting futures supply and demand levels and at the same time land
policies will determine rate of forest land changes to or from other uses over time.

Climate change
Changes in climatic conditions like rainfall and temperatures may result to drought,
heavy rainfall, flooding, landslides, forest fires, seeding patterns of trees all of which
have an effect on forest productivity. These factor are factored in the forecasted model
based adopted.

5.5.2 Results on forecasting of supply

The following table gives the forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya.

Table 21: Forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya

Forecasting of the Supply of Wood Products in Kenya

Wood Year
Product
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
(1000
Timber
3 7358.45 7550.89 7723.49 7942.39 8117.71 8352.66 8547.92 8777.35 9014.33 9244.41 9479.34
m)
Poles 3029.65 3102.52 3177.29 3265.30 3357.87 3445.37 3535.49 3618.75 3716.38 3817.79 3915.73

Firewood 13639.88 13845.77 14054.78 14254.17 14451.38 14678.82 14875.43 15064.60 15257.67 15480.56 15724.10
 Charcoal 7344.55 7454.29 7566.21 7680.33 7792.73 7909.19 8028.06 8152.51 8285.16 8407.98 8528.68

Total 31372.53 31953.47 32521.77 33142.19 33719.69 34386.04 34986.90 35613.21 36273.54 36950.74 37647.85

Table 21 above shows forecast supply quantities of wood products from 2012 to year 2032
which is the forecast period. From the table supply of timber and poles is projected to increase
by 28.8% and 29.2% from 2012 to 2032, firewood by 15.3% and charcoal by 16.1%. Wood
supply is projected to increase from 31372530m3 in 2012 to 37647850m3 in 2032 an increase of
20.0%.
The figure below captures the trend in the forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya.
Figure 8: Forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya.

Forecasting of the Supply of Wood Products in Kenya

15000
10000
5000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Timber Poles
Firewood Charcoal

According to figure 8 above, the trend in the projection of supply of wood products in Kenya is
approximately linear for all the products with firewood having the greatest inclination and poles
have the least since firewood has the greatest supply while poles are the least supplied of all the
wood products.

5.5.3 Forecasting of demand

Factors affecting demand

Demand of wood like supply changes with time depending some of the determining factors.
Parameters from the factors were fed into the forecasting models to determine the future demand
changes from the 2012 base year levels.
Factors determining supply were analyzed to be:-
 Population
Population growth increase future demands as more people are added. Kenya national
Bureau of statistics estimates a inter census growth of 2.6%.

Economic growth
Economic growth raises the purchasing power subsequently making demand of wood and
wood products higher for a wide variety of commodities, including forest products
(primary and secondary processed wood products, pulp and paper). Positive Economic
growth catalyzes construction and electrification activities which require more wood.
Economic growth enable household to increase their budget limits subsequently buying
more wood products

Rural-urban migration
Migration of people from one area to another, shifts wood consumption levels from one
area to another. Migration from rural to urban will generally result to a reduction of
demand for fuel wood in rural areas and an increase in charcoal consumption.

Price of wood and other alternative products

Demand is sensitive to price changes with increase in wood prices causing a reduction in
quantities demanded.

Policies
Policies influence demand quantities both positively and negatively. Government uses
this fact to control consumption to required levels now and in future period.

5.5.4 Results of the forecasting of demand

The following table gives the forecasting of the demand of wood products in Kenya.
Table 22: Forecasting of the Demand of Wood Products in Kenya

Forecasting of the Demand of Wood Products in Kenya

Year
Wood
Product
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
(1000
m3)
Timber 5262.62 5465.05 5674.72 5908.44 6120.67 6356.66 6628.14 6802.66 7016.05 7295.82 7537.76

Poles 1409.48 1473.85 1542.10 1613.93 1692.38 1768.05 1854.65 1932.33 2031.79 2122.60 2230.26

Firewood 18702.75 18936.08 19220.67 19559.70 19860.51 20135.65 20441.91 20749.93 21089.45 21412.58 21715.90

Charcoal 16325.81 16615.39 16851.66 17127.07 17415.41 17737.85 18046.41 18398.90 18653.15 18935.27 19228.18

Total 41700.66 42490.37 43289.15 44209.14 45088.97 45998.21 46971.11 47883.82 48790.44 49766.27 50712.10
 Table 22 above shows the forecasted demand trends of wood products with the planning period,
between 2012 and 2032. Within the planning period, demand for wood is estimated to increase
from 41,700,660 m3 in 2012 to 50,712,100m3 in 2032, an increase of 9,011,440m3. Demand of
timber is projected to increase by 43.2%, poles by 58.2%, firewood by 16.1% and charcoal by
17.8% from 2012 to 2032 while the total wood demand is to increase by 21.6%.
The figure below captures the trend in the forecasting of the demand of wood products in Kenya.

Figure 9: Forecasting of the demand of wood products in Kenya.

Forecasting of the Demand of Wood Products in Kenya

10000 15000 20000
5000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Timber Poles
Firewood Charcoal

According to figure 9 above, the trend in the projection of demand of wood products in Kenya is
approximately linear for all the products with firewood having the greatest inclination and poles
have the least since firewood has the greatest demand while poles are the least demanded of all
the wood products.

5.5.5 Projected supply and demand balances of wood

Net balance of supply and demand quantities for each product, in each year within the planning
period are shown in table 23 with a deficit from the base year to 2032.

Table 23: Projection of the Net Balances (Supply-Demand) of Wood Products in Kenya

Projection of the Net Balances (Supply-Demand) of Wood Products in Kenya

Wood Year
Product
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
(1000
3
m )
Timber 2095.83 2085.84 2048.77 2033.95 1997.04 1996.00 1919.78 1974.69 1998.28 1948.59 1941.58

Poles 1620.17 1628.67 1635.19 1651.37 1665.49 1677.32 1680.84 1686.42 1684.59 1695.19 1685.47

Firewood -5062.87 -5090.31 -5165.89 -5305.53 -5409.13 -5456.83 -5566.48 -5685.33 -5831.78 -5932.02 -5991.80

Charcoal -8981.26 -9161.10 -9285.45 -9446.74 -9622.68 -9828.66 -10018.35 -10246.39 -10367.99 -10527.29 -10699.50
Total -10328.13 -10536.90 -10767.38 -11066.95 -11369.28 -11612.17 -11984.21 -12270.61 -12516.90 -12815.53 -13064.25

This deficit is projected to continue over the next 20 years of forecasting period. The deficit is
brought about by a deficit of firewood and charcoal products at approximately 5,062,870m3 and
8,981,260m3 respectively. On the other hand, during the same year there is a surplus of timber
and poles at approximately 2,095,830m3 and 1,620,170m3 respectively. This surplus is projected
all the way to 2032. The figure below gives the projection of wood products in Kenya.

Figure 10: Forecasting of the net balances (supply-demand) of wood products in Kenya

Forecasting of the Net Balances (Supply-Demand) of Wood Products in Kenya

5000

0
-5000
-15000 -10000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Total Timber
Poles Firewood
Charcoal

Figure 10 above shows the trend in net balances (supply-demand) of wood products in Kenya
from 2012 to 2032. It shows a general deficit for firewood and charcoal. This deficit is projected
to be on an upward trend during the forecast period.
CHAPTER 6.0 POLICY AND LEGAL ENVIRONMENT
6.1 OVERVIEW
Policies and legal frameworks governing wood production in Kenya largely fall in forestry,
energy and their allied sectors and are generally aimed at ensuring sustainable and affordable
supply of wood, mainly for subsistence and commercial uses. However, policy spill overs from
other sectors of the economy often have even greater impacts on wood supply and demand than
forest policies themselves. Through their implementation, practice has shown that, while some of
these policies have met their intended objectives, the reverse is true for others. Part of the
successes or failures in the policy impacts is closely related to the institutions (national and local)
mandated directly and indirectly to implement these policy frameworks. Some of these
institutions are: Central government ministries and agencies (Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of
Environment, Water and Natural Resources, Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Agriculture).
Government agencies include KFS, Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI), National
Environment Management Authority – NEMA, County Governments (major suppliers and
consumers), National Land Commission (NLC)), Nyayo Tea Zones, private owners/entities such
as Kakuzi, tea growing companies, individual tree growers(with substantial production capacity),
Community Forest Associations (CFAs), NGOs (Kenya Forests Working Group - KFWG, East
African Wild Life Society - EAWLS, Forest Action Network - FAN, Green Belt Movement-
GBM, among others) as well as Government agencies involved in foreign investments. A matrix
showing existing institutional gaps and recommendations within these institutions is presented in
annex 10.1

Policy instruments and institutional responsibilities have an overall impact on Kenya’s capacity
to attain the current national wood production potential standing at 31.4 million cubic metres in
endeavor to meet the current national demand of 41.7 million cubic metres. The policy
recommendations made in this study are critical if Kenya is to meet the projected wood demand
of 50.7 million cubic metres against the wood supply projected at 37.6 million cubic metres in
2032.
Development of a REDD+ strategy in Kenya therefore requires an in-depth analysis of the
existing key policy and legal frameworks as well as an understanding of capacities and
institutional gaps and the conflicting positions that hamper sustainable forest resources
management. Understanding of this capacity will contribute to development of REDD+
interventions that will enhance wood supply in order to meet the country’s increasing wood
demand. This chapter provide an analysis of the relevant policy and legal instruments and
institutions that influence wood supply and demand in Kenya. It provides policy
recommendations on what is needed to curb the already high and rising demand as well as
enhance wood supply.

6.1.1 Forest management challenges in Kenya

Forest management in Kenya is faced with many challenges. Some of these are
1. Policy and institutional failure has in the past created a general apathy where short term
gains (illegal logging, encroachment and charcoal production) are pursued in most of the
 forests especially those that are not well protected (most of them on community land and
private lands).
2. Lack of a land use policy has initiated competition between forest and other land uses.
3. Increase in population without a corresponding economic development has resulted in the
need to have more land to for settlement and agriculture.
4. Community forests do not have a strong legal framework for their conservation,
protection and management.
5. The political will to conserve forests has also been erratic and in the recent past, political
decisions, such as settlement of people in Mau Forest Complex have been anchored on
other motives rather than professionalism.
6. Other challenges include inadequate forest research and education, inadequate use of
research findings to promote forestry, conflicts in policies and institutional mandates,
inadequate financing of forestry and inadequate law enforcement mechanisms.
7. Road infrastructure is very poor and some forests are not accessible. Rail infrastructure is
also very poorly developed in Kenya. This raises the cost of transporting raw materials
from some areas and directly diminishes SMEs competitiveness and profitability. In other
areas, there is no electricity making timber processing long and expensive. Improvement
of infrastructure will encourage forestry investment in Kenya.
8. Inadequate capacity among small scale investors. In some forest areas, local communities
through CFAs are keen to engage in timber processing industries through SMEs. One of
the limitations is the amount of capital investment (financial and capital) that is required
at minimum before they are pre-qualified by KFS.

6.2 POLICY ENVIRONMENT

6.2.1 Policies with positive influence on wood supply and demand

Some of the policy and legal frameworks with a positive influence on wood supply are those that
promote use of renewable sources of energy, encourage the planting of trees and woodlots by
individual land owners, institutions and community groups, that provide economic incentives,
promote sustainable land use planning, promote long term tree investments, promote
certification/authentication of forest products.

Policies promoting renewable sources of energy

Policies promoting adoption of renewable sources of energy by individuals, households,
institutions and community groups include the Environmental Management and Coordination
Act (EMCA) 1999, Agriculture policies and laws, Forests Act (2005), the draft National Forestry
(Conservation and Management)-Forests Bill 2012, the Forests (Charcoal) Rules, 2009, the
Energy Act 2006 and Vision 2030.
The Forests Act, 2005 promotes wood fuel production through provisions of a wide range of
incentives to private sector investments (e.g. loans). It also encourages partnerships with wood
fuel consumers and farmers through contract tree farming schemes. The Agriculture Policy
promotes development of incentives for establishment of ago-processing and rural industries in
rural areas where wood fuel is the potential source of energy. It also promotes agroforestry as it
has potential of increasing wood fuel production for domestic consumption. The Energy Act
promotes development of renewable energy. Vision 2030 recognises that energy is critical in
achieving socio-economic transformation and industrial policy. It recognises that the supply of
steady, predictable, quality and affordable energy, among others, is a major ingredient to catalyse
industrialization. These policy statements have good intentions by all standards but the current
policy environment is such that incentives such as loans are not provided, contract farming
schemes are lacking and very little is being done to implement the policy statement, in other
words there is very little action to implement the policy statements.
Charcoal trade has been demonised as an illegal dirty business for the poor people. However,
recent changes to regulate this trade with a view of changing people’s perception through the
KFS gazetted charcoal rules 2009 is a positive development in getting people to grow trees for
charcoal production. The rules allow farmers to form Charcoal Producer Associations (CPAs)
which are licensed by KFS. Implementation of the rules has encouraged producers to get
competitive prices through creation of CPAs.

Policies promoting economic incentives

Forest incentives come in the form of direct financial aid for forest management, free seedlings
and advice and technical assistance for forest managers. The primary objective of all three is
increased wood supply and all three generally target supply from small landowners. In Kenya,
technical assistance programmes are often in the form of forestry extension programmes. These
programmes are designed to bring the latest information on modern technologies to local forestry
operations. Various public programmes donate seedlings to smallholders and communities, or
build nurseries that provide seedlings at discounted prices. They decrease the costs of forest
management and encourage tree production. In Kenya, forest incentives are mainly from
technical advice by KFS through forest extension programmes.
EMCA allows the Minister of Finance to propose to Government, tax and other fiscal incentives,
disincentives or fees to induce or protect the proper management of natural resources or the
prevention or abatement of environmental degradation. The draft National Policy on Carbon
Finance and Emission Trading provide for enactment of laws that establish a special taxation
regime for carbon trading projects and associated revenue and expenditures. It also introduces
tax rebates / incentives/concessions with respect to particular projects in certain high priority
sectors such as renewable and alternative energy.
The Forests Bill 2013 provides economic incentives through establishment of the forest
conservation and management fund for commercial forestry. The draft Forests Bill 2013
proposes tax and other fiscal incentives to increase investments in forest land use and forest
resource utilization. The Bill also provides incentives for increasing forest and tree cover through
the establishment of a National Community Forestry Programme; a National Reforestation
Programme; and a National Programme for Craft Apprenticeships and Vocation Training There
are other competing funds that has also been established such as the National Restoration Fund
established by EMCA, the Water Towers Conservation Fund that is managed by the Water
Tower Agency and the Forest Management and Conservation Fund by KFS. These funds have
not been used to fund reforestation either because they do not have funds or because of other
priorities. The established Funds should be harmonised with a view of establishing a specific
Fund for forestry under KFS.
The Land Act, 2012 provides incentives for communities and individuals to invest in income
generating natural resource management programmes. It provides measures to facilitate the
access, use and co-management of forests, water and other resources by communities who have
customary rights to these resources. This Act has just been rolled out for implementation. The
National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) provides tax incentives and favourable
import tariffs on technology for projects that reduce emissions

Policy Regulations
There are several regulations that would increase wood supply in Kenya if well enforced. These
include Timber (Harvesting) Regulations, 2009, Participation in Sustainable Forest Management
Regulations, 2009 and Agriculture Farm Forestry rules 2009, Forests (Charcoal) Regulations,
2009 and EMCA regulations such as EIA and audit regulations. Participation in Sustainable
Forest Management Regulations, 2009 allows KFS to issue permits, timber licenses (1 yr.),
contracts (e.g. for raising of seedling, tree planting etc.), joint agreements or a long term
concession agreement for a specified forest related activity. The current practice in timber
licensing has been through 1 year contracts which have been a dis-incentive to large scale saw
millers whose interests are long term in nature. Agriculture Farm Forestry rules 2009 allows
maintenance of 10% tree cover on farms, sustainable production of wood, charcoal and other
non-wood products. Compliance to the rules is lacking. Timber (harvesting) Regulations, 2009
regulate timber harvesting.

Policies promoting sustainable land use planning

EMCA underscore the environmental planning as a means of regulating unsustainable land use
practices. The Land policy promotes sustainable land use planning. The Land Policy calls for the
development of comprehensive resource tenure policy as part of an overall land use policy and
provide for development of land use plans at national, regional and local level. A draft land use
policy is in place and there is need to fast track its finalisation and development of land use plans
taking into consideration forestry and farm forestry land use practices.
The County Government Act No 17 of 2012 provides that county planning objectives shall
facilitate the development of a well-balanced system of settlements and ensure productive use of
scarce land, water and other resources for economic, social, ecological and other functions across
a county; maintain a viable system of green and open spaces for a functioning eco-system;
provide the preconditions for integrating under-developed and marginalized areas to bring them
to the level generally enjoyed by the rest of the county; work towards the achievement and
maintenance of a tree cover of at least ten per cent of the land area of Kenya as provided in
Article 69 of the Constitution. The envisaged county development will spur growth and
development and increase wood demand. County governments are very new governance
structures in Kenya and there is need to fast track development of County Action Plans.

Policies that promote tree growing

The Forests Act 2005, the draft Forests Bill 2013, the Agriculture Laws (2012) and Farm
Forestry regulations promotes tree growing in Kenya. Apart from providing tree growing
incentives, the draft Forests Bill also promotes tree growing through programs necessary for
observing the national tree-planting week on public and community land. Agroforestry practices
in Central Kenya have increased wood supply for domestic and commercial needs (e.g., supply
of wood fuel for the tea industry). However, there are still inadequate policy interventions on
increased land productivity through intensification of agriculture practices.
Policies promoting long term tree investments
For a long time, Kenya’s forests especially plantations were exploited through 1 year licences.
This system did not provide the licensee with incentives to engage in sustainable forest
management practices. To address this policy gap, the Forests Act 2005 now allows management
of forests through concessions. In line with this, KFS has prepared a Forest Concession
Framework that confers the right to harvest to a third party over a period of 30 years. Under
these conditions, the risk and uncertainty borne by the licensee is mitigated by the terms of the
concession agreement.
The Draft National Policy on Carbon Finance and Emissions Trading support activities that
attract carbon finance through mitigation areas such as sustainable management and conservation
of forest areas, and afforestation and reforestation activities. It promotes sustainable energy
consumption and use of renewable and energy efficient measures as well as large-scale tree-
planting programmes, plantation forestry with suitable species and commercial farm forestry
to reduce pressure on natural forests. There is therefore a need to enact the National Policy on
Carbon Finance and Emissions Trading as it will facilitate the trading of carbon and encourage
people to invest in large scale tree growing ventures. Other policies such as those promoting
foreign investments are also critical in long term tree investments in Kenya.

Policies that promote Certification/Authentication of forest products

The National Forestry (Conservation and Management) Bill 2013 allows for establishment and
management of a Chain-of-Custody system, to verify the origin of forests products from public
land which if implemented would reduce illegal exploitation of forests and promote on-farming
forestry and therefore lead to increased supply of wood products from farms. It also allows for
rules and regulations to establish standards for the scaling, grading and marking of timber and
other forest products. Currently timber grading is implemented by the outdated Timber
Regulations. The Act requirement on grading is rarely applied since most of the products being
exported are finished/high value added products. This Act is outdated and any relevant
provisions should be integrated within the relevant industry (infrastructure) laws or the draft
Forest Bill 2013 (as currently provided).

Policies promoting gender equity

The land Act in its list of guiding values and principles includes “equitable access” and
“elimination of gender discrimination in law, customs and practices related to land property in
Land”. This provision will motivate women to get much more involved in tree growing.
However, it will be a challenge to reconcile customary land governance practices – which in
most cases discriminate against women rights pertaining to land management, use, transfer, and
inheritance – with constitutional standards for gender equity in land matters. Gender equity is
also well articulated in Constitution of Kenya, National Land Policy, Land Registration Act and
National Land Commission Act.

Policies promoting environmental easements

The Land Act allows for conservation or environmental easements if established by other
legislation such as EMCA. Environmental easements on REDD+ areas would promote increased
investment in tree management, and hence supply. This is particular important in some of the
Counties that are net wood producers but which cannot utilise the potential because most of it is
locked, e.g., Lamu with a net balance of 420,283 cubic metres and Narok with a net balance of
1,959,874 cubic metres. Most of the forest vegetation in Lamu is comprised of gazetted
mangrove forests and the forest vegetation in Narok is within the Mara game reserve. EMCA
currently requires the court’s approval for environmental easements. For this kind of easement to
become a viable option legal tool for conservation in Kenya, however, parties need to be able to
create and register them without involvement of a court. Otherwise the process will remain too
bureaucratic and costly to allow for more than sporadic use of these easements. EMCA should
therefore be reviewed with a view of removing the court approval requirement.

6.2.2 Factors with positive influence on wood supply and demand

Pricing
High pricing of wood products especially for construction has tended to increase wood supply by
encouraging people to engage in commercial farm forestry. In Meru for example, the demand for
tree products by tea growing companies have encouraged farmers to grow trees for this industry.
It is also important to note that there was a lot of farm forestry expansion in this region when
there was ban on logging in Kenya.

Wood demand
Most of the policies that promote economic development in Kenya have a positive bearing in
wood demand. Socio and economic environmental changes are also important factors influencing
wood demand in Kenya. Some of these policies and environmental changes that have been
considered in projecting wood demand at 50.7 million cubic metres by 2032 are highlighted
below.

Small and Medium Enterprises and rural development

Policies such as Agriculture Act, Farm forestry regulation and vision 2030 which promotes
industrial and rural development positively influence demand. Vision 2030 envisages realizing
an industrial competitive nation and promotes Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as future
large industries and increasing productivity and competitiveness of the local industries. The
vision prioritizes infrastructure development which will positively increase the demand of wood
products.
Increase in population
Increase in population has resulted to increased demand for wood based products. In 1963,
Kenya’s population was 9 million; today it is 40 million (4 times higher) and is expected to reach
64 million in 2030. Increase in population has two effects; it increases demand but also may
reduce supply as more land is opened up for cultivation and settlement. The Population Policy
for National Development, 2012 provides an overall framework and proposes key policy
measures to be undertaken to address the critical population management issues in the country.
Under the population and environmental sustainability section, the policy calls for the
intensification of the use of population data in environmental planning and resource
management.

Increased demand for tree products

Urbanisation, population increase, settlement around refugee camps, migration, poverty among
other factors have also contributed to increased demand of wood products. In refugee camps
around Garissa, this has contributed to a lot of degradation of woodlands in this and surrounding
counties.

Housing
Though there has been a robust growth in housing development over the last few years, there
remains a very high and un-met demand particularly in urban areas. Under the Vision 2030, a
target of over 200,000 units per year is required.

Migration and Urbanisation

Over the last few years, there have been demographic, social and economic changes, which have
been brought by urbanisation. In 1963, for example, 8% of Kenya’s population lived in cities and
towns. Currently, over 35% of the people live in cities and towns while it is estimated that by
2030, 50% of Kenya’s population will be living in cities and towns.
The Draft National Urban Development Policy, the Cities and Urban Areas Act 2011, Housing
Act Cap 117 and Vision 2030 are important policy instruments in increased urbanisation and
development in Kenya which has a net effect in increased demand of wood products in the
country ( If this is the case then it should inform the wood projections for this study.). The long
term goal of Draft National Urban Development Policy (NUDP) 2011 is to accelerate economic
growth, reduce poverty, promote equity and help the country realise Vision 2030. Environment
and climate change is one of the thematic areas addressed by NUDP. Fast tracking the
enactment of the National Urban Development Policy is needed. The Cities and Urban Areas
Act, 2011 requires urban areas and cities to prepare integrated plans taking environment into
considerations and needs of the community and aligning the needs to the requirements of the
constitution.

In conclusion there are good policy instruments that Kenya as a country need to take advantage
of in order to promote wood production which include policies on incentives, accessibility to
credit, tax rebates/exceptions on farm forestry inputs among others. In order to realise the
potential wood supply these instruments will be crucial. Policy recommendations are presented
in section 7 of this report.

6.2.3 Factors that negatively impact on wood supply and demand

There are policy attributes that may negatively affect wood supply and demand in Kenya. In
order to realise the wood supply and demand projections, there is a need to address these policy
attributes.

Wood supply
While demand for timber, poles, and fuel wood in Kenya has increased over the last few
decades, forest policies and institutions have not responded adequately to improve supply. On
the contrary, most of the institutions weakened with a corresponding collapse of governance.
Negative influence is mostly attributed to policy inadequacy, retrogressive and conflicting laws.
Some of these include implementation of policies that fail to address inefficiency in production
so as to reduce wastage during processing, implementation of policies that do not adequately
promote production of wood in dry lands/recognise the large potential of dry land vegetation in
meeting Kenya wood demand needs, policies that restrict trade in wood products, policies that
provide little or no incentive for tree farmers to grow and manage trees for wood production, and
policies that put little emphasis on certain types of energy sources. Lack of security of land
tenure, in-adequate institutional capacities, lack of credit support, poor planning, competition for
scarce investment funds with non-forestry projects (often prioritised), inappropriate policies in
encouraging private sector participation, weak economic conditions and inadequate
infrastructure, unfavourable policies are also factors that negatively affect wood supply in
Kenya.

Security of Land and Tree tenure

Within Kenya, there are three main categories of land: government, private and community land.
Community land covers 67% of Kenya’s land. There is limited security of tenure for people
living in Community Land. For example, only 40,400 out of the 262,000 households in coastal
region have titles to their land. Most farmers in many other parts of the country such as Kitui,
Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Narok, Mandela, Wajir, Garissa and Turkana do not have title deeds
on land that they occupy. Lack of security of tenure de-motivates farmers living on this land
from growing trees/investing on long term tree programmes.

Lack of a strong legal framework for management of community land

For a long time, trust land forests (now community forests) have lacked a strong legal framework
for their conservation, protection and management. This has contributed to degradation of most
of these forests and allocation for settlement as they are often seen as free lands and therefore
prone to tragedy of the common. The Government is in the process of formulating a Community
Land Law which should address this gap.

Lack of an appropriate policy for dry land forest

Most dry land forests are virtually unmanaged. Lack of an appropriate policy for dry land forest
vegetation has led to degradation of dry land vegetation. These vegetation cover types present a
challenge to forestry both because of the harsh environmental conditions in which they occur and
in view of the intimate interaction between the vegetation, people and the livestock. Traditional
forestry as practiced elsewhere is not applicable and therefore management of natural and
planted tree stands must address not only the problems of dry zone silviculture but also the vital
dependence of people and livestock on the vegetation.
The state of dry land forestry resources is reminiscent of wasteful use patterns and degradation
mainly overgrazing, overexploitation of trees for the acquisition of fuel wood (firewood and
charcoal) particularly in the neighbourhood of towns and refugees camps. This state is
compounded by high levels of poverty and low levels of development investment especially
infrastructure. Even where technical information and production technologies exist, adoption
levels have remained low due to poor extension service delivery and low investments.
Most of the wood products especially charcoal come from dry land vegetation, yet there is no
policy recognising this as a main source of charcoal now and in future with a view of addressing
dry land forestry challenges. Dry land forests have untapped potential especially in the
production of charcoal and commercial timber production using fast growing and drought
tolerant tree species. An appropriate policy to promote dry land forestry is highly needed.

Inefficient machinery, high cost of technology transfer and limited accessibility to credit
The wood industry in Kenya is characterized by a lot of waste. On average the recovery rate in
sawn wood production is about 25% for mobile saws, 32% for other sawmills, 95% for pulp,
plywood and particle boards, 95% for poles, 95% for firewood and 16% for charcoal. This is one
of the reasons why despite having a potential supply of 31,372,531cubic metres, Kenya can only
realise 19,428,576 cubic metres because of inefficiency. The inefficiency is attributed to the use
of old, inappropriate and inefficient machinery for sawmilling. Use of efficient technology is a
problem for the small scale industry operators where logging and processing is labour intensive
with most SMEs using old inefficient machinery such as tractors and saws for milling. The
resulting timber is often of poor quality as a result of the technology applied and failure to treat
the timber. Access to bank credits as a result of high interest rates (currently ranging between 18
and 30%) discourages SMEs from access to loans in order for them to invest in efficient
technologies. There is therefore need to provide favourable environment for improvement of
technology as this will increase the potential wood supply.

Economic viability of business entities

Investment cannot proceed without viable business entities in which to invest. Most land holding
in Kenya are small in size and may not be economically viable and hence the need to pull
stakeholders together in order to increase the production area probably through formation of
farmers groups and cooperatives.

Expansion of agriculture, settlements and other developments

Increase in population has resulted to increased demand for agricultural land because there are
inadequate policy interventions on increasing land productivity in existing agricultural land. The
result has been “horizontal” expansion where more land is opened up for agriculture. So long as
the agricultural value of land surpasses that of forestry, agricultural expansion will continue to
reduce wood supply in Kenya. To some extent, agriculture expansion has meant sacrificing
forests, both gazetted and non-gazetted. A good example is in Trans Mara County, where forest
and bush lands are being cleared and replaced with agriculture and tea production. Factors that
have made forestry not competitive enough (like credit incentives) must be addressed if forestry
is to compete with agriculture. This way, farmers will be able to allocate their natural resources
to the most sustainable and productive use, and which might not necessarily be agriculture.
Forestry problems are usually long term in nature and will tend to remain obscure in the short
term, just to appear in compounded nature in the long run. Although agriculture was commonly
considered more important than forestry, now it is clear that forestry supports agriculture and
other sectors that are related to agriculture like livestock, fisheries, energy and rural employment.

Institutional Linkages
There are no elaborate linkages between agriculture and forestry. This means that agriculture
development may at times affect forestry indirectly. Any agricultural intervention that affects
forestry development will, in the final analysis, affect agriculture and thereby, leave people
worse off than before. A good example is the conversion of forests into agricultural land and the
subsequent loss of the catchment’s function. This leads to reduced water flow and less water
being available for irrigation. There is thus need to establish linkages between agriculture and
forestry.

Limited Forestry Investment

Credibility of forestry business among financial institution is usually poor because of lack of
understanding and difficulties involved in valuing and pricing of forest/tree products. Although
financial resources alone are not sufficient to ensure sustainable forestry, without appropriate
financing, the goal of economically efficient, socially balanced and environmentally sound forest
management will be difficult to achieve.

Lack of a National land use policy

Kenya has no comprehensive land-use policy and this has meant that we have allocated our
resources on very narrow land-use considerations. Forestry is an important land use in the
development of Kenya’s economy. Additionally, there are land-use conflicts between forests,
agriculture and urban development. The process of developing a land use policy initiated by the
government in 2011 must be completed.

Institutional weaknesses
A study by Kenya Forests Working Group (KFWG) shows that there is very little marketing of
seedlings done by KFS. Consequently, many seedlings remain overgrown in some KFS nurseries
while there are no seedlings in other stations. This is because there are no mechanisms to transfer
excess seedlings from one station to the other.
The major sources of tree seeds for most of the nurseries in Kenya are from the Kenya Forestry
Seed Centre (KFSC) of the Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI), local collections from
KFS plantations and farms, purchases from local dealers/traders, and some imported seeds. In
the recent past, many private nurseries have mushroomed. Unfortunately, their supply of seeds
has not been vetted to ensure high quality production of seedlings and suitability of seedlings in
different parts of the country given the importance of tree growing of the seedlings. The future
of forestry in this country will depend greatly on the generic quality of the seed sown. If the
seeds are from poor parent material, there is likelihood of them not meeting the supply
projections of various forest products.
In light of above, there is need to develop standards for seedling production and marketing in
order to enhance seedling quality in the market place and ensure long term sustainability of
seedling production. There is also need to protect the public from uncertified seed sources. Use
of uncertified seed will in the long run impact negatively on the quality of the stock being
established

Lack of appropriate incentives to engage in tree growing

Current policy instruments have not been successful in increasing wood supply in regions where
all wood supply still originates from the natural forest areas (e.g. trust lands and illegally
harvested forests) because wood from these areas is less expensive than wood potentially coming
from managed stands. A good example is presented by charcoal. Most of the charcoal consumed
in Kenya comes from community (trust land) forests almost free of charge. This has an impact in
sustainability of charcoal because there is no incentive for tree farmers to grow and manage trees
for charcoal production.
The cost of doing business in Kenya is high, uncompetitive and very discouraging to investors as
a result of the corporate tax involved. In addition, there are many other taxes involved such as
vehicle and fuel taxes and levies. Policy interventions are therefore urgently needed to address
the issue of incentives.

Absence of a favourable policy on wood energy

The Energy policy has been criticized as putting more emphasis on commercial energy (fossil
and electricity) denying biomass energy the comprehensive treatment it deserves. The policy
does not address the fact that over 70% of households relies on wood fuel and therefore
appropriate fiscal policies are needed to encourage urban households to consider alternative
types of energy in order to contribute to SFM. The policy however acknowledges that wood
energy can be used to accelerate economic empowerment for urban and rural development, and
enhance security of energy supply. Effective policies in wood energy are therefore needed to
enhance wood supply.

Devolution
Concerns have been expressed on how devolution, may be counterproductive if county
governments fail to sustainably manage their forest resources This can happen if they exploit
forest un sustainably in order to fill any financial deficits since the Central Government is only
committed to providing a percentage of their annual budget. The REDD+ Strategy should strive
to address this potential challenge.
CHAPTER 7.0 WAY FORWARD FOR THE REDD+ STRATEGY
The study results indicate that current wood supply quantities cannot meet the current demand
quantities and needs to be improved, raising it higher than demanded quantities, subsequently
reducing chances of forest degradation and deforestation. The study also indicated that there
exists production or supply enhancing opportunities which if made use of can greatly improve
supply. These opportunities have been found to be:-
 There exists room for improvement of existing management practices enabling
realization of optimal yielding capacities. There are conceivable governance reforms
towards effective management of forest resources in line with the new constitution.
Currently, the forest policy and bill are undergoing review processes where findings and
recommendations from REDD+ studies could provide bases for review.
 There is a high private investors potential that is not fully utilized in the forest sector
which can be tapped to for improvement. Kenya offers exciting investment opportunities
both for local and international investors.
 Enhanced participation of stakeholders in forestry under new governance system as
devolution offers room for increased engagement of various stakeholders in governance.
 Ready market for forest wood products both locally and in the international markets.
Demand for wood products is high and remains high in the projection period. This
indicates a ready market for current production and that of envisaged increases in wood
production.

The REDD+ strategy should therefore provide management and policy options geared towards
increasing wood supply through:-
 Policy review and harmonization to correct negative impacts on wood supply capacities.
Forest sector policies need to be reviewed to conform to existing governance system as
well as identified issues. Spillover of polices from other sectors should also be checked
through policy harmonization. Energy policy is a good example that ignores the costs and
benefits attributable to wood fuel use in the country.
 Land policy review to solve land tenure issues especially in communal lands. This is will
create land tenure systems that favour long term enterprises like wood production as
ownership of trees may vary over time.
 Development and implementation of forest management plans to ensure sustainability.
This should mainly address community forests management.
 Capacity building in forest sector institutions to enhance growing, processing and
marketing of wood products. These institutions should be strengthened in order to
implement research findings on appropriate tree species, good management practices and
relevant technologies.
 Creation of incentives in commercial tree growing and management such as a forestry
fund and tax exemptions for forestry tools to encourage tree planting.
  Forest and forest produce certification to attract wood export markets for the
environmentally conscious consumers and also attract financial resources through carbon
trading.
 Streamlining of gender issues in access and use of wood fuel energy, in adoption of
efficient utilization practices and alternative energy sources.
 Viable strategies to ensure sustainable exploitation of trees and shrubs in the wooded
grasslands as they have been found to be continually harvested unsustainably mainly for
charcoal production

Demand of wood products is higher than supply creating room for forest degradation and
deforestation calling for the REDD+ strategy to make use of opportunities that can curb high and
rising wood products demand. These opportunities include:-
 Existence of modern efficient wood processing technologies and knowledge diffusion to
improve recovery rates through processing of wood mainly into timber and charcoal.
 Availability of information from research findings on effective wood utilization practices
which if adopted would reduce demand quantities.
 Existence of alternative products to wood such as wind, solar and biogas energy sources
as well as recycled plastic and concrete made poles.

The REDD+ strategy should create and implement options that will lower and curb rising wood
demand through:-
 Review of regulations on timber and charcoal production, processing and distribution
with aim at removing hindrances to trans-county trade in form of barriers, acquiring of
information on advanced efficient technologies and improving road networks to markets.
These interventions should aim at providing means of acquiring relevant production and
market information and technologies which, for instance, might be expensive for local
and small scale processors of wood products.
 Continued research and capacity development on efficient utilization practices to lower
wastage.
 Provision of incentives to encourage adoption of alternatives to wood usage like a)
energy from electricity, gas, wind and solar energy b) alternative transmission pole using
concrete and metallic poles to wooden ones c) construction materials like metal and,
concrete.
8.0 REFERENCE LIST
Buongiorno, J., and S. Zhu. (2012). Calibrating and Updating the Global Forest Products Model
(GFPM version 2012). Staff paper No.77, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology,
University of Wisconsin, Madison. p 29.

Buongiorno, J., S. Zhu, D. Zhang, J.A. Turner, and J. Tomberlin. (2003). The Global Forest
Products Model: Structure, Estimation and Applications. Academic Press, San Diego. pp 301.

Cheboiwo J.K. and Githiomi J.K., (2012). The Status and Dynamics of Forest Products Supply
and Demand in Kenya. A Paper Presented at the First IUFRO-FORNESSA Regional Congress in
Nairobi, Kenya 25-29th June 2012.

EAWLS and TNRF. (2012). The Trade in Forest Products Between Kenya and Tanzania: A
Report by East African Wild Life Society (EAWLS) in Partnership with Tanzania Natural
Resources Forum (TNRF). Report Prepared for the FAO Forest Law Enforcement, Governance
and Trade Support Programme for African, Caribbean and Pacific Countries (GCP/INT/064/EC)

FAO (2013). FAO Yearbook of Forest Products. FAO Forestry Series No. 46 FAO Statistics
Series No. 202

Githiomi J.K and Oduor N. (2012). Strategies for Sustainable Wood fuel Production in Kenya.
International Journal of applied Science and technology Vol. 2 No. 10. National Forest Products
Research Centre, Kenya Forestry Research Institute. Nairobi, Kenya

Githiomi J. K., Kung’u J. B. and Mugendi D. N. (2012). Analysis of Wood-fuel Supply and
Demand Balance in Kiambu, Thika and Maragwa Districts in Central Kenya

Githiomi J (2010). Micro-level Wood Energy Planning for Kiambu, Thika and Maragwa
Districts; A Case Study for Decentralized Wood Energy Plan in Kenya. PhD Thesis, Department
of Environmental Studies, Kenyatta University, p. 176

Government of Republic of Kenya (2007). Kenya Vision 2030: A Globally Competitive and
prosperous Kenya. Ministry of Planning and National Development and the National Economic
and Social Council. Nairobi, Kenya.

Held C., Techel G. and Windhorst K. (2010). Timber Market Study: Saw-log Production Grant
Scheme. (S.P.G.S)

Kamfor Company Limited (2008). Mt. Kenya East Pilot Project for Natural resources
Management: Wood Biomass Survey in Five River Basins. Ministry of Water and Irrigation.
Nairobi Kenya.

Kenya Forest Service (2009). Strategic Plan 2009-2013. Nairobi, Kenya.

Kenya National Bureaus of Statistics (2012) Economic Survey. Nairobi Kenya.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (2012). Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey
2005/06 (Revised Edition). Ministry of Planning and National Development. The Regal Press
Kenya Ltd. Nairobi, Kenya
Kenya National Bureaus of Statistics (2010). Kenya National Population and Housing Census
Vol. 1A. Nairobi, Kenya.

Kenya National Bureaus of Statistics (2012) Statistical Abstract. Government Printer, Nairobi,
Kenya.

Kituyi E. (2008) Policy Proposal for Sustainable Consumption and Production of Energy in
Kenya: A Memorandum to the National Environment Policy Committee. Renewable Energy
Technology Assistance Programme, Policy Brief Series No. 2, 2008. Nairobi, Kenya.

Marshall N.T. and Jenkins M. (1994). Hard Times for Hardwood: Natural Timber and the
Timber Trade in Kenya. TRAFFIC International, Cambridge, United Kingdom. Pg 70

Mathu W. (2011). Forest Plantations and Woodlots in Kenya. African Forest Forum Working
Paper Series, Vol.1Issue 13, 2011

Mészáros, C. (1999). The B.P.M.P.D Interior Point Solver for Convex Quadratic Problems:
Optimization Methods and Software 11&12: pp. 431-449.

Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MENR) (1994). Kenya Forestry Master Plan.
Nairobi, Kenya.

Ministry of Energy (2002). Study on Kenya’s Energy Demand, Supply and Policy Strategy for
Households, Small scale Industries and Service Establishments. Kamfor Consultants, Nairobi,
Kenya.

Ministry of Energy (2004). Sessional Paper No. 4 on Energy. Government printer, Nairobi,
Kenya.

Mugo, F.W. (2001) The Role of Wood-fuel Conservation in Sustainable Supply of the Resource:
The Case for Kenya. Paper Presented at Charcoal Stakeholders.

Ngigi A. (2008). Kenya Country Baseline Report and Work-plan: EAC Strategy to Scale-Up

Access to Modern Energy Services.

Parker C., Mitchell A., Trivedi M., Mardas N. (2009) The Little REDD Book.

Prestemon, J.P., S. Zhu, J.A. Turner, J. Buongiorno, and R. Li. (2006). The Forest Product Trade
Impacts of Invasive Species: Modeling Structure and Intervention Tradeoffs. Agricultural and
Resource Economics Review 35(1): 128-143. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/23572

Rudi Drigo (2005). WISDOM – East Africa. Wood fuel Integrated Supply/ Demand Overview
mapping (WISDOM) Methodology. Spatial Wood fuel Production and Consumption Analysis of
Selected African Countries. FAO- Forestry Department-Wood Energy, Rome Italy.

Solberg, B. Brooks, D. Pajuoja, H. Peck, T J and Wardle, P A. (1996). Long-term Trends and
Prospects in World Supply and Demand for Wood and Implications for Sustainable Forest
Management: A Synthesis. European Forest Institute Research Report 6, European Forest
Institute, Joensuu.
Stephen Mutinda and Murefu Barasa (2005). National Charcoal Survey: Exploring the Potential
for a Sustainable Charcoal Industry in Kenya. (ESD Africa), Nairobi, Kenya.

The Government Printer (2010). The Constitution of Republic of Kenya. Nairobi, Kenya

Theuri, K. (2002) Wood-fuel Policy and Legislation in Kenya; A Paper Presented during the
Regional Workshop on Wood-fuel Policy and Legislation held at ICRAF, Nairobi, Kenya.

Tomberlin, D, Zhu, S, and Buongiorno, J, (1998). The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM):
User’s Manual and Guide to Installation. Global Forest Products Outlook Study Working Paper
GFPOS/WP/02, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy

Turner, J.A., J. Buongiorno, G.P. Horgan, and F.M. Maplesden. (2001). Liberalization of Forest
Products Trade and the New Zealand Forest Sector, 2000-2015: A Global Modeling Approach.
New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 31(3): p. 320-338.

Whiteman, A. and Brown, C. (1999). International Forestry Review - Vol 1(3), pp 143-152.

WWF-Uganda (2011). Timber Movement and Trade in Democratic Republic of Congo and
Destination Markets in the Region.
9.0 ANNEXES
ANNEX 9.1 TERMS OF REFERENCE
The broad objectives of the study is to carry out an assessment of the existing and potential
demand of the wood products (timber and fuel wood) and supply potential of various forested
ecosystem, including gazetted forest.

Specific objectives:

 Establish the current and future demand of products (timber and fuel wood);
 Establish the current and projected future supply potential of different forest management
 Develop scenario of future demand and supply of wood products under changing social
political and economic environment – including but not limited to price, food security,
economic growth, internal migration and infrastructure development.
Specific tasks

Assessment of existing demand and supply for wood products

 Estimate the per capital consumption of fuel wood and round wood timber in Kenya;
 Estimate the volume of wood products available from different forest types under different
management regimes;
 Estimate aggregate demand and supply for wood products;
 Assessment of the demand of various wood products within the country vis a viz domestic,
regional and international supply of various wood products;
 Identify the data challenges for such study
Critical analysis of demand and supply scenario
 Critical analysis of demand and supply scenario of the various wood products.
 Estimate the supply potential of forest for now and projected over the next 20 years;
Identify capacity gaps in improving the supply systems
Identify capacities required to improve the existing supply system and compare them with their
actual capacities:

 At individual level
 At community level
 At organization level
 At policy level

Reviewing Policy and legal context

 The policy and legal context that have positive influence on production and marketing chain;
 The policy and legal context that have negative influence on production and
marketing chain;
 Analysis of enabling elements of environment for sustainable production and sales under
different ownership and management regimes;
 Map the stakeholders involved in production and market chain in each regime;
 Identify gaps in existing legislation, policies, guidelines and directives in creating an
enabling environment for increasing the supply of wood products from different forest
management regimes;
 Identify coordination barriers, if any, within government agency and outsiders;

The way forward for National REDD+ strategy

 Provide an analysis of the gaps in improving existing practices in wood product supply and
demand;
 Recommend key strategic interventions and reforms required to improve production
ANNEX 9.2 FORESTS WITHIN COUNTIES AREA

COMMUNITY/ PRIVATE Potential

COUNTY PUBLIC FORESTS FORESTS Agro forests
TREES ON
NATURAL PLANTATIONS PLANTATIONS NATURAL FARMS
Baringo 36,629 16,076 841 251,120 300,676

Bomet 26,817 10 1,701 29,851 230,718

Bungoma 39,082 1,473 2,263 38,359 297,197

Busia - - 1,815 60 161,013

Elgeyo/Marakwet 64,441 11,476 7,298 96,429 251,489

Garisa - 343 1,174 215,930 173,592

Embu 10,740 - - 12,818 -

Homa Bay 2,003 299 5,334 1,170 305,738

Isiolo - - - 110,742 1,342
Kajiado 12,216 1,281 400 153,878 137,646

Kakamega 17,911 6,581 5,838 15,633 299,413

Kericho 32,447 16,944 2,099 40,289 249,966

Kiambu 22,279 10,411 2,916 26,782 218,234

Kilifi 40,911 122 - 87,838 310,466

Kirinyaga 16,274 867 871 15,641 142,795

Kisii - - 3,288 167 128,625

Kisumu - 27 21 1,085 206,696

Kitui 14,733 - - 209,740 129,911

Kwale 24,102 - - 22,859 215,424

Laikipia 24,001 27 758 62,991 207,962

Lamu 2,936 324 - 145,869 114,130

Machakos 112 510 2,786 14,360 117,149

Makueni 5,262 4,188 3,967 44,800 155,658

 COMMUNITY/ PRIVATE Potential
PUBLIC FORESTS FORESTS Agro forests
TREES ON
COUNTY NATURAL PLANTATIONS PLANTATIONS NATURAL FARMS
Mandera - - - 55,845 -
Marsabit 10,475 - - 108,032 21,007
Meru 56,747 8,637 3,752 61,993 431,275
Mombasa 918 - 280 251,984
Migori - - 1,509 19,539
Murang'a 14,559 2,436 783 18,841 243,883
Nairobi 458 1,236 2,324 1,312 56,458
Nakuru 33,156 9,718 9,951 50,373 570,349
Nandi 33,851 2,956 8,871 36,867 273,481
Narok 44,098 71 - 285,540 1,139,640
Nyamira - - 6,561 - 83,528
Nyandarua 25,504 9,727 1,943 28,131 304,097
Nyeri 61,745 16,667 3,600 814 282,221
Samburu 147,081 - - 263,088 217,801
Siaya - - 118 1,335 249,179
Tana River 4,804 91 - 195,219 20,730
Tharaka-
Nithi 34,341 - - 4,603 87,900
Taita Taveta - - 194 44,498 184,576
Trans-Nzoia 12,472 3,065 11,356 15,183 231,004
Turkana - - - 275,380 25,395
Uasin Gishu 13,925 10,421 805 17,529 333,739
Vihiga 2,800 768 517 4,216 53,995
Wajir - - - 104,769 -

West Pokot 16,446 482 - 79,152 501,632

TOTAL 905,357 138,152 94,146 3,252,922 9,939,255
ANNEX 9.3 FORESTS WITHIN COUNTIES AREA UNDER NATIONAL
PARKS
AREA OF FOREST COVER IN NATIONAL PARKS (HA)
COUNTY FORESTS AREA COUNTY FORESTS AREA

Baringo 4,316 Makueni 55,308

Bungoma 3,231 Mandera 19,413

Elgeyo
Marakwet 255 Marsabit 19,048

Garissa 93,343 Meru 52,369

Embu 288 Muranga 2,424

Homa Bay 5,687 Nairobi 869

Isiolo 24,588 Nakuru 2,269

Kajiado 530 Narok 7,293

Kakamega 3,821 Nyandarua 16,025

Kilifi 5,985 Nyeri 87,771

Kirinyaga 629 Samburu 199

Kisumu 63 Tana River 44,322

Kitui 49 Tharaka Nithi 34,875

Kwale 18,581 Taita Taveta 17,261

Laikipia 241 Trans Nzoia 11,536

Lamu 52,685 Turkana 9,178

Machakos 1,647 TOTAL 596,099

ANNEX 9.4 COUNTIES WOOD SUPPLY POTENTIAL
NATIONAL WOOD SUPPLY POTENTIAL
Wood products
COUNTY Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total

Baringo 386,667 127,659 524,117 282,217 806,334 1,320,659

Bomet 120,574 52,869 283,145 152,463 435,608 609,051

Bungoma 169,257 70,889 371,147 199,848 570,995 811,141

Busia 78,411 36,939 177,957 95,823 273,779 389,129

Elgeyo
Marakwet 287,210 125,091 423,520 228,049 651,569 1,063,870

Embu 89,566 37,677 202,080 108,812 310,892 438,135

Garisa 86,372 43,186 126,319 68,018 194,337 323,895

Homa Bay 160,032 83,469 350,828 188,907 539,736 783,237

Isiolo 44,887 22,355 66,183 35,637 101,821 169,062

Kajiado 135,722 56,665 245,899 132,407 378,307 570,694

Kakamega 223,985 98,747 379,484 204,338 583,822 906,555

Kericho 293,454 87,498 354,442 190,853 545,295 926,247

Kiambu 216,363 75,001 296,729 159,777 456,506 747,869

Kilifi 172,727 65,519 399,331 215,024 614,355 852,601

Kirinyaga 80,793 32,303 174,404 93,910 268,314 381,410

Kisii 70,402 41,842 152,385 82,053 234,438 346,682

Kisumu 91,614 32,195 216,338 116,489 332,827 456,636

Kitui 140,992 61,932 266,777 143,649 410,426 613,350

Kwale 103,822 37,709 252,098 135,745 387,842 529,374

Laikipia 120,026 49,705 271,984 146,453 418,437 588,168

Lamu 111,539 47,244 206,814 111,361 318,175 476,959

Machakos 73,705 40,363 147,207 79,265 226,472 340,539

Makueni 142,202 66,133 223,314 120,246 343,560 551,895

Mandera 22,338 11,169 32,669 17,591 50,260 83,767

NATIONAL WOOD SUPPLY POTENTIAL
Wood products
COUNTY Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total

Marsabit 52,445 24,838 91,231 49,124 140,355 217,637

Meru 310,977 117,599 560,104 301,594 861,699 1,290,275

Migori 119,947 40,522 265,778 143,111 408,889 569,358

Mombasa 8,700 3,062 20,538 11,059 31,597 43,358

Murang'a 140,820 50,399 283,866 152,851 436,717 627,936

Nairobi 46,672 26,481 75,641 40,730 116,372 189,525

Nyamira 64,255 56,792 123,347 66,418 189,765 310,812

Nyandarua 244,151 80,878 381,960 205,671 587,631 912,660

Nyeri 295,554 94,176 389,765 209,873 599,638 989,368

Samburu 200,959 86,121 467,053 251,490 718,544 1,005,624

Siaya 110,543 39,386 261,254 140,675 401,930 551,859

Taita Taveta 27,763 12,233 47,861 25,771 73,632 113,628

Tana River 116,719 52,565 208,668 112,360 321,027 490,312

Tharaka-Nithi 83,779 30,615 216,317 116,478 332,795 447,189

Trans-Nzoia 183,982 119,508 326,973 176,062 503,035 806,525

Turkana 121,313 58,983 187,578 101,003 288,581 468,877

Uasin Gishu 254,658 76,800 395,230 212,816 608,046 939,503

Vihiga 34,781 13,835 65,061 35,033 100,095 148,711

Wajir 41,907 20,954 61,290 33,002 94,292 157,153

West Pokot 256,643 93,760 580,112 312,368 892,480 1,242,883

NATIONAL
WOOD 7,358,446 3,029,655 13,639,884 7,344,553 20,984,437 31,372,538
SUPPLY
POTENTIAL
ANNEX 9.5 NATIONAL AVAILABLE SUPPLY
a) Recovery rates for production of various products from raw forest wood

Conversion efficiency and recovery rates

Products Timber others Poles Fire wood Charcoal
Mobile
Sawmills saws
share share
65% 35% 5%
Efficiency 32% 25% 95% 95% 95% 16%

b) Recoverable supply available for the market

RECOVERABLE SUPPLY (available) THROUGH PROCESSING

Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL

Total Others
Mobile sawn (pulp, ply, Total
Saw mills saws wood carvings) Timber Fire wood Charcoal

National
Potential Supply 4,561,267 2,456,067 7,017,334 346,080 7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 31,372,531

Recovery rates 0.32 0.25 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.16

Available
National Supply 1,459,605 614,017 2,073,622 328,776 2,402,399 2,877,461 12,971,321 1,177,395 19,428,576

c) Amount of wood going into waste through inefficient conversion technologies

Lost volumes through processing inefficiencies of raw forest wood
Fire
Timber Poles Charcoal Total TOTAL
wood
Supply
Potential 7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 20,980,209 31,405,060
Available
Supply 2,402,399 2,877,461 12,971,321 1,177,395 14,148,716 19,428,576
Lost Volumes
4,961,016 151,445 682,701 6,181,322 6,831,494 11,976,484
ANNEX 9.6 COUNTIES POPULATION
NATIONAL AND COUNTY POPULATION
AT ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF 0.026
2009 NATIONAL
COUNTIES CENSUS at 2010 at 2011 at 2012

Baringo 555,561 570,006 584,826 600,031

Bomet 891,835 915,023 938,813 963,222
Bungoma 1,375,063 1,410,815 1,447,496 1,485,131
Busia 743,946 763,289 783,134 803,496
Elgeyo Marakwet 369,998 379,618 389,488 399,615
Embu 516,212 529,634 543,404 557,532
Garissa 623,060 639,260 655,880 672,933
Homa Bay 963,794 988,853 1,014,563 1,040,941
Isiolo 143,294 147,020 150,842 154,764
Kajiado 687,312 705,182 723,517 742,328
Kakamega 1,660,651 1,703,828 1,748,127 1,793,579
Kericho 590,690 606,048 621,805 637,972
Kiambu 1,623,282 1,665,487 1,708,790 1,753,219
Kilifi 1,109,735 1,138,588 1,168,191 1,198,564
Kirinyaga 528,054 541,783 555,870 570,322
Kisii 1,152,282 1,182,241 1,212,980 1,244,517
Kisumu 968,909 994,101 1,019,947 1,046,466
Kitui 1,012,709 1,039,039 1,066,054 1,093,772
Kwale 649,931 666,829 684,167 701,955
Laikipia 399,227 409,607 420,257 431,183
Lamu 101,539 104,179 106,888 109,667
Machakos 1,098,584 1,127,147 1,156,453 1,186,521
Makueni 884,527 907,525 931,120 955,329
Mandera 1,025,756 1,052,426 1,079,789 1,107,863
NATIONAL AND COUNTY POPULATION
AT ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF 0.026
2009 NATIONAL
COUNTIES CENSUS at 2010 at 2011 at 2012

Marsabit 291,166 298,736 306,503 314,473

Meru 1,356,301 1,391,565 1,427,746 1,464,867

Migori 917,170 941,016 965,483 990,585

Mombasa 939,370 963,794 988,852 1,014,562

Murang'a 942,581 967,088 992,232 1,018,030

Nairobi 3,138,369 3,219,967 3,303,686 3,389,582

Nakuru 1,603,325 1,645,011 1,687,782 1,731,664

Nandi 752,965 772,542 792,628 813,237

Narok 850,920 873,044 895,743 919,032

Nyamira 598,252 613,807 629,766 646,139

Nyandarua 596,268 611,771 627,677 643,997

Nyeri 693,558 711,591 730,092 749,074

Samburu 223,947 229,770 235,744 241,873

Siaya 842,304 864,204 886,673 909,727

Taita Taveta 284,657 292,058 299,652 307,443

Tana river 240,075 246,317 252,721 259,292

Tharaka Nithi 365,330 374,829 384,574 394,573

Trans Nzoia 818,757 840,045 861,886 884,295

Turkana 855,399 877,639 900,458 923,870

Uasin Gishu 894,179 917,428 941,281 965,754

Vihiga 554,622 569,042 583,837 599,017

Wajir 661,941 679,151 696,809 714,926

West Pokot 512,690 526,020 539,696 553,729

National Population 38,610,097 39,613,960 40,643,922 41,700,664
ANNEX 9.7 COUNTIES WOOD DEMAND
DEMAND BY COUNTY 2012
PRODUCTS
TIMBER POLES WOOD FUEL
TOTALS
FIREWOOD CHARCOAL Total
PER CAPITA
CONSUMPTION 0.1262 0.0338 0.4485 0.3915 0.8400 1
COUNTY POPULATION

Baringo 600,031 75,724 20,281 269,114 234,912 504,026 600,031

Bomet 963,222 121,559 32,557 432,005 377,102 809,107 963,222

Bungoma 1,485,131 187,423 50,197 666,081 581,429 1,247,510 1,485,131

Busia 803,496 101,401 27,158 360,368 314,569 674,936 803,496

Elgeyo
Marakwet 399,615 50,431 13,507 179,227 156,449 335,676 399,615

Embu 557,532 70,361 18,845 250,053 218,274 468,327 557,532

Garissa 672,933 84,924 22,745 301,811 263,453 565,264 672,933

Homa Bay 1,040,941 131,367 35,184 466,862 407,529 874,391 1,040,941

Isiolo 154,764 19,531 5,231 69,412 60,590 130,002 154,764

Kajiado 742,328 93,682 25,091 332,934 290,622 623,556 742,328

Kakamega 1,793,579 226,350 60,623 804,420 702,186 1,506,606 1,793,579

Kericho 637,972 80,512 21,563 286,130 249,766 535,897 637,972

Kiambu 1,753,219 221,256 59,259 786,319 686,385 1,472,704 1,753,219

Kilifi 1,198,564 151,259 40,511 537,556 469,238 1,006,794 1,198,564

Kirinyaga 570,322 71,975 19,277 255,790 223,281 479,071 570,322

DEMAND BY COUNTY 2012
PRODUCTS
TIMBER POLES WOOD FUEL
TOTALS
FIREWOOD CHARCOAL Total
PER CAPITA
CONSUMPTION 0.1262 0.0338 0.4485 0.3915 0.8400 1
COUNTY POPULATION

Kisii 1,244,517 157,058 42,065 558,166 487,228 1,045,394 1,244,517

Kisumu 1,046,466 132,064 35,371 469,340 409,691 879,031 1,046,466

Kitui 1,093,772 138,034 36,969 490,557 428,212 918,768 1,093,772

Kwale 701,955 88,587 23,726 314,827 274,815 589,642 701,955

Laikipia 431,183 54,415 14,574 193,386 168,808 362,194 431,183

Lamu 109,667 13,840 3,707 49,186 42,935 92,120 109,667

Machakos 1,186,521 149,739 40,104 532,155 464,523 996,677 1,186,521

Makueni 955,329 120,563 32,290 428,465 374,011 802,477 955,329

Mandera 1,107,863 139,812 37,446 496,877 433,728 930,605 1,107,863

Marsabit 314,473 39,686 10,629 141,041 123,116 264,157 314,473

Meru 1,464,867 184,866 49,513 656,993 573,495 1,230,488 1,464,867

Migori 990,585 125,012 33,482 444,278 387,814 832,092 990,585

Mombasa 1,014,562 128,038 34,292 455,031 397,201 852,232 1,014,562

Murang'a 1,018,030 128,475 34,409 456,587 398,559 855,146 1,018,030

Nairobi 3,389,582 427,765 114,568 1,520,227 1,327,021 2,847,249 3,389,582

Nakuru 1,731,664 218,536 58,530 776,651 677,946 1,454,598 1,731,664

Nandi 813,237 102,630 27,487 364,737 318,382 683,119 813,237

Narok 919,032 115,982 31,063 412,186 359,801 771,987 919,032

Nyamira 646,139 81,543 21,840 289,794 252,964 542,757 646,139

Nyandarua 643,997 81,272 21,767 288,832 252,125 540,957 643,997

Nyeri 749,074 94,533 25,319 335,960 293,263 629,222 749,074

 DEMAND BY COUNTY 2012
PRODUCTS
TIMBER POLES WOOD FUEL
TOTALS
FIREWOOD CHARCOAL Total
PER CAPITA
CONSUMPTION 0.1262 0.0338 0.4485 0.3915 0.8400 1
COUNTY POPULATION

Samburu 241,873 30,524 8,175 108,480 94,693 203,173 241,873

Siaya 909,727 114,808 30,749 408,012 356,158 764,170 909,727

Taita Taveta 307,443 38,799 10,392 137,888 120,364 258,252 307,443

Tana river 259,292 32,723 8,764 116,292 101,513 217,805 259,292

Tharaka
Nithi 394,573 49,795 13,337 176,966 154,475 331,441 394,573

Trans Nzoia 884,295 111,598 29,889 396,606 346,201 742,808 884,295

Turkana 923,870 116,592 31,227 414,356 361,695 776,051 923,870

Uasin Gishu 965,754 121,878 32,642 433,141 378,093 811,233 965,754

Vihiga 599,017 75,596 20,247 268,659 234,515 503,174 599,017

Wajir 714,926 90,224 24,165 320,645 279,894 600,538 714,926

West Pokot 553,729 69,881 18,716 248,347 216,785 465,132 553,729

TOTALS 41,700,664 5,262,624 1,409,483 18,702,749 16,325,811 35,028,560 41,700,666

ANNEX 9.8 COUNTIES SUPPY AND DEMAND NET BALANCES
BARINGO COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 386,667 127,659 524,117 282,217 806,334 1,320,659
Demand 75,724 20,281 269,114 234,912 504,026 600,031

NET BALANCE 310,943 107,378 255,003 47,305 302,308 720,628

BOMET COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 120,574 52,869 283,145 152,463 435,608 609,051
Demand 121,559 32,557 432,005 377,102 809,107 963,222

NET BALANCE (984) 20,312 (148,860) (224,639) (373,499) (354,171)

BUNGOMA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 169,257 70,889 371,147 199,848 570,995 811,141
Demand 187,423 50,197 666,081 581,429 1,247,510 1,485,131

NET BALANCE (18,166) 20,691 (294,934) (381,580) (676,515) (673,990)

BUSIA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 78,411 36,939 177,957 95,823 273,779 389,129
Demand 101,401 27,158 360,368 314,569 674,936 803,496

NET BALANCE (22,990) 9,781 (182,411) (218,746) (401,157) (414,366)

ELGEYO MARAKWET COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 287,210 125,091 423,520 228,049 651,569 1,063,870
Demand 50,431 13,507 179,227 156,449 335,676 399,615

NET BALANCE 236,778 111,584 244,292 71,600 315,892 664,255

EMBU COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 89,566 37,677 202,080 108,812 310,892 438,135
Demand 70,361 18,845 250,053 218,274 468,327 557,532

NET BALANCE 19,206 18,832 (47,974) (109,462) (157,435) (119,397)

GARISSA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 86,372 43,186 126,319 68,018 194,337 323,895
Demand 84,924 22,745 301,811 263,453 565,264 672,933

NET BALANCE 1,448 20,441 (175,492) (195,435) (370,927) (349,038)

HOMA BAY COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 160,032 83,469 350,828 188,907 539,736 783,237
Demand 131,367 35,184 466,862 407,529 874,391 1,040,941

NET BALANCE 28,665 48,285 (116,034) (218,621) (334,655) (257,705)

ISIOLO COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 44,887 22,355 66,183 35,637 101,821 169,062
Demand 19,531 5,231 69,412 60,590 130,002 154,764

NET BALANCE 25,355 17,124 (3,228) (24,953) (28,181) 14,298

KAJIADO COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 135,722 56,665 245,899 132,407 378,307 570,694
Demand 93,682 25,091 332,934 290,622 623,556 742,328

NET BALANCE 42,040 31,575 (87,035) (158,214) (245,249) (171,634)

KAKAMEGA COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 223,985 98,747 379,484 204,338 583,822 906,555
Demand 226,350 60,623 804,420 702,186 1,506,606 1,793,579

NET BALANCE (2,364) 38,124 (424,936) (497,848) (922,784) (887,024)

KERICHO COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 293,454 87,498 354,442 190,853 545,295 926,247
Demand 80,512 21,563 286,130 249,766 535,897 637,972

NET BALANCE 212,942 65,935 68,311 (58,913) 9,398 288,275

KILIFI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 172,727 65,519 399,331 215,024 614,355 852,601
Demand 151,259 40,511 537,556 469,238 1,006,794 1,198,564

NET BALANCE 21,468 25,007 (138,225) (254,214) (392,439) (345,964)

KIRINYAGA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 80,793 32,303 174,404 93,910 268,314 381,410
Demand 71,975 19,277 255,790 223,281 479,071 570,322

NET BALANCE 8,818 13,026 (81,385) (129,371) (210,757) (188,912)

KISII COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 70,402 41,842 152,385 82,053 234,438 346,682
Demand 157,058 42,065 558,166 487,228 1,045,394 1,244,517

NET BALANCE (86,656) (223) (405,781) (405,175) (810,956) (897,835)

KISUMU COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 91,614 32,195 216,338 116,489 332,827 456,636
Demand 132,064 35,371 469,340 409,691 879,031 1,046,466

NET BALANCE (40,450) (3,176) (253,002) (293,202) (546,204) (589,830)

KITUI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 140,992 61,932 266,777 143,649 410,426 613,350
Demand 138,034 36,969 490,557 428,212 918,768 1,093,772

NET BALANCE 2,958 24,962 (223,780) (284,563) (508,342) (480,422)

KWALE COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 103,822 37,709 252,098 135,745 387,842 529,374
Demand 88,587 23,726 314,827 274,815 589,642 701,955

NET BALANCE 15,236 13,983 (62,729) (139,071) (201,800) (172,581)

LAIKIPIA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 120,026 49,705 271,984 146,453 418,437 588,168
Demand 54,415 14,574 193,386 168,808 362,194 431,183

NET BALANCE 65,611 35,131 78,598 (22,355) 56,243 156,984

LAMU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 111,539 47,244 206,814 111,361 318,175 476,959
Demand 13,840 3,707 49,186 42,935 92,120 109,667

NET BALANCE 97,700 43,538 157,628 68,427 226,055 367,292

MACHAKOS COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 73,705 40,363 147,207 79,265 226,472 340,539
Demand 149,739 40,104 532,155 464,523 996,677 1,186,521

NET BALANCE (76,034) 259 (384,948) (385,258) (770,206) (845,982)

MAKUENI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 142,202 66,133 223,314 120,246 343,560 551,895
Demand 120,563 32,290 428,465 374,011 802,477 955,329

NET BALANCE 21,640 33,843 (205,151) (253,766) (458,917) (403,435)

MANDERA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 22,338 11,169 32,669 17,591 50,260 83,767
Demand 139,812 37,446 496,877 433,728 930,605 1,107,863

NET BALANCE (117,474) (26,277) (464,207) (416,137) (880,345) (1,024,096)

MARSABIT COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 52,445 24,838 91,231 49,124 140,355 217,637
Demand 39,686 10,629 141,041 123,116 264,157 314,473

NET BALANCE 12,759 14,208 (49,810) (73,992) (123,802) (96,835)

MERU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 310,977 117,599 560,104 301,594 861,699 1,290,275
Demand 184,866 49,513 656,993 573,495 1,230,488 1,464,867

NET BALANCE 126,111 68,087 (96,889) (271,901) (368,790) (174,592)

MIGORI COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 119,947 40,522 265,778 143,111 408,889 569,358
Demand 125,012 33,482 444,278 387,814 832,092 990,585

NET BALANCE (5,065) 7,040 (178,499) (244,703) (423,202) (421,227)

MOMBASA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 8,700 3,062 20,538 11,059 31,597 43,358
Demand 128,038 34,292 455,031 397,201 852,232 1,014,562

NET BALANCE (119,338) (31,231) (434,493) (386,142) (820,636) (971,204)

MURANG'A COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 140,820 50,399 283,866 152,851 436,717 627,936
Demand 128,475 34,409 456,587 398,559 855,146 1,018,030

NET BALANCE 12,344 15,990 (172,721) (245,708) (418,429) (390,095)

NAIROBI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 46,672 26,481 75,641 40,730 116,372 189,525
Demand 427,765 114,568 1,520,227 1,327,021 2,847,249 3,389,582

NET BALANCE (381,093) (88,087) (1,444,586) (1,286,291) (2,730,877) (3,200,057)

NAKURU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 403,598 179,908 721,301 388,393 1,109,695 1,693,200
Demand 218,536 58,530 776,651 677,946 1,454,598 1,731,664

NET BALANCE 185,062 121,377 (55,350) (289,553) (344,903) (38,464)

NANDI COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 199,863 113,555 382,465 205,942 588,407 901,825
Demand 102,630 27,487 364,737 318,382 683,119 813,237

NET BALANCE 97,233 86,068 17,728 (112,440) (94,712) 88,589

NAROK COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 615,757 232,527 1,381,324 743,790 2,125,114 2,973,398
Demand 115,982 31,063 412,186 359,801 771,987 919,032

NET BALANCE 499,775 201,463 969,138 383,989 1,353,127 2,054,365

NYAMIRA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 64,255 56,792 123,347 66,418 189,765 310,812
Demand 81,543 21,840 289,794 252,964 542,757 646,139

NET BALANCE (17,287) 34,952 (166,447) (186,546) (352,993) (335,328)

NYANDARUA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 244,151 80,878 381,960 205,671 587,631 912,660
Demand 81,272 21,767 288,832 252,125 540,957 643,997

NET BALANCE 162,879 59,111 93,128 (46,454) 46,674 268,663

NYERI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 295,554 94,176 389,765 209,873 599,638 989,368
Demand 94,533 25,319 335,960 293,263 629,222 749,074

NET BALANCE 201,021 68,857 53,805 (83,389) (29,584) 240,293

SAMBURU COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 200,959 86,121 467,053 251,490 718,544 1,005,624
Demand 30,524 8,175 108,480 94,693 203,173 241,873

NET BALANCE 170,435 77,946 358,573 156,797 515,371 763,751

SIAYA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 110,543 39,386 261,254 140,675 401,930 551,859
Demand 114,808 30,749 408,012 356,158 764,170 909,727

NET BALANCE (4,265) 8,638 (146,758) (215,483) (362,241) (357,868)

TAITA TAVETA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 27,763 12,233 47,861 25,771 73,632 113,628
Demand 38,799 10,392 137,888 120,364 258,252 307,443

NET BALANCE (11,036) 1,842 (90,027) (94,593) (184,620) (193,814)

TANA RIVER COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 116,719 52,565 208,668 112,360 321,027 490,312
Demand 32,723 8,764 116,292 101,513 217,805 259,292

NET BALANCE 83,997 43,801 92,375 10,847 103,222 231,020

THARAKA NITHI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 83,779 30,615 216,317 116,478 332,795 447,189
Demand 49,795 13,337 176,966 154,475 331,441 394,573

NET BALANCE 33,984 17,279 39,351 (37,997) 1,353 52,616

TRANS NZOIA COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 183,982 119,508 326,973 176,062 503,035 806,525
Demand 111,598 29,889 396,606 346,201 742,808 884,295

NET BALANCE 72,384 89,619 (69,633) (170,139) (239,773) (77,770)

TURKANA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 121,313 58,983 187,578 101,003 288,581 468,877
Demand 116,592 31,227 414,356 361,695 776,051 923,870

NET BALANCE 4,721 27,756 (226,778) (260,692) (487,470) (454,993)

UASIN GISHU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 254,658 76,800 395,230 212,816 608,046 939,503
Demand 121,878 32,642 433,141 378,093 811,233 965,754

NET BALANCE 132,780 44,157 (37,911) (165,277) (203,188) (26,251)

VIHIGA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 34,781 13,835 65,061 35,033 100,095 148,711
Demand 75,596 20,247 268,659 234,515 503,174 599,017

NET BALANCE (40,815) (6,412) (203,598) (199,482) (403,080) (450,306)

WAJIR COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 41,907 20,954 61,290 33,002 94,292 157,153
Demand 90,224 24,165 320,645 279,894 600,538 714,926

NET BALANCE (48,316) (3,211) (259,355) (246,892) (506,247) (557,774)

WEST POKOT COUNTY NET BALANCES
Wood products
Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total
Supply Potential 256,643 93,760 580,112 312,368 892,480 1,242,883
Demand 69,881 18,716 248,347 216,785 465,132 553,729

NET BALANCE 186,762 75,044 331,765 95,583 427,348 689,154

ANNEX 9.9 COUNTIES WOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND NET BALANCES
SUMMARY
COUNTIES NET BALANCES
Wood products
COUNTY Timber Poles Wood fuel
TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total

Baringo 310,943 107,378 255,003 47,305 302,308 720,628

Bomet (984) 20,312 (148,860) (224,639) (373,499) (354,171)

Bungoma (18,166) 20,691 (294,934) (381,580) (676,515) (673,990)

Busia (22,990) 9,781 (182,411) (218,746) (401,157) (414,366)

Elgeyo Marakwet 236,778 111,584 244,292 71,600 315,892 664,255

Embu 19,206 18,832 (47,974) (109,462) (157,435) (119,397)

Garissa 1,448 20,441 (175,492) (195,435) (370,927) (349,038)

Homa Bay 28,665 48,285 (116,034) (218,621) (334,655) (257,705)

Isiolo 25,355 17,124 (3,228) (24,953) (28,181) 14,298

Kajiado 42,040 31,575 (87,035) (158,214) (245,249) (171,634)

Kakamega (2,364) 38,124 (424,936) (497,848) (922,784) (887,024)

Kericho 212,942 65,935 68,311 (58,913) 9,398 288,275

Kiambu (4,894) 15,742 (489,590) (526,608) (1,016,198) (1,005,349)

Kilifi 21,468 25,007 (138,225) (254,214) (392,439) (345,964)

Kirinyaga 8,818 13,026 (81,385) (129,371) (210,757) (188,912)

Kisii (86,656) (223) (405,781) (405,175) (810,956) (897,835)

Kisumu (40,450) (3,176) (253,002) (293,202) (546,204) (589,830)

Kitui 2,958 24,962 (223,780) (284,563) (508,342) (480,422)

Kwale 15,236 13,983 (62,729) (139,071) (201,800) (172,581)

Laikipia 65,611 35,131 78,598 (22,355) 56,243 156,984

Lamu 97,700 43,538 157,628 68,427 226,055 367,292

Machakos (76,034) 259 (384,948) (385,258) (770,206) (845,982)

Makueni 21,640 33,843 (205,151) (253,766) (458,917) (403,435)

COUNTIES NET BALANCES
Wood products
COUNTY Timber Poles Wood fuel
TOTAL
Firewood Charcoal Total

Mandera (117,474) (26,277) (464,207) (416,137) (880,345) (1,024,096)

Marsabit 12,759 14,208 (49,810) (73,992) (123,802) (96,835)

Meru 126,111 68,087 (96,889) (271,901) (368,790) (174,592)

Migori (5,065) 7,040 (178,499) (244,703) (423,202) (421,227)

Mombasa (119,338) (31,231) (434,493) (386,142) (820,636) (971,204)

Murang'a 12,344 15,990 (172,721) (245,708) (418,429) (390,095)

Nairobi (381,093) (88,087) (1,444,586) (1,286,291) (2,730,877) (3,200,057)

Nakuru 185,062 121,377 (55,350) (289,553) (344,903) (38,464)

Nandi 97,233 86,068 17,728 (112,440) (94,712) 88,589

Narok 499,775 201,463 969,138 383,989 1,353,127 2,054,365

Nyamira (17,287) 34,952 (166,447) (186,546) (352,993) (335,328)

Nyandarua 162,879 59,111 93,128 (46,454) 46,674 268,663
Nyeri 201,021 68,857 53,805 (83,389) (29,584) 240,293

Samburu 170,435 77,946 358,573 156,797 515,371 763,751

Siaya (4,265) 8,638 (146,758) (215,483) (362,241) (357,868)

Taita Taveta (11,036) 1,842 (90,027) (94,593) (184,620) (193,814)

Tana river 83,997 43,801 92,375 10,847 103,222 231,020

Tharaka Nithi 33,984 17,279 39,351 (37,997) 1,353 52,616

Trans Nzoia 72,384 89,619 (69,633) (170,139) (239,773) (77,770)

Turkana 4,721 27,756 (226,778) (260,692) (487,470) (454,993)

Uasin Gishu 132,780 44,157 (37,911) (165,277) (203,188) (26,251)

Vihiga (40,815) (6,412) (203,598) (199,482) (403,080) (450,306)

Wajir (48,316) (3,211) (259,355) (246,892) (506,247) (557,774)

West Pokot 186,762 75,044 331,765 95,583 427,348 689,154

TOTALS 2,095,823 1,620,172 (5,062,864) (8,981,257) (14,044,121) (10,328,126)

ANNEX 10.1 INSTITUTIONAL ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES
Roles and Responsibility of Institutions involved in wood Supply and Demand and Proposed
Recommendations to enhance Supply
Responsible Relevant Roles and Institutional Gap Recommendations
institution/stake wood Responsibilities Assessment
holder product relevant to wood
supply and demand
Ministry of All types of  Policy and  Overlapping  Streamlining of
Environment, products regulation in departmental departmental
water and management of mandates as a result of mandates
Natural environment, the recent (2013)
Resources water and natural merging of the three
resources Ministries (water,
environment and
forestry and wildlife
ministries)
Ministry of Fuel wood  Policy and  Lack of coordination  Streaming of
Energy regulation in between the ministry institutional
management of with institutions mandates
renewable and responsibilities in
non- control of wood fuel
 Different studies production and
have indicated movement such as KFS
the potential and Local Authorities,
supply of wood e.g. licensing of wood
products from a and charcoal vendors
hectare of a by the Ministry of
plantation forest. Energy without
The tendency to verifiable information
convert wood for on source,
energy to  Overlaps in institutional
charcoal is mandates, e.g.
estimated to be at promotion of wood fuel
35%, hence by the Ministry, a role
volume for fire of also played by KFS
wood and that of and Ministry of
charcoal is Agriculture
distributed at 65%
and 35%
respectively.
 renewable
resources
Ministry of All types of  Promotion of  The Agriculture (Farm  Strengthening
Agriculture products agriculture and Forestry) Rules 2009 of the Ministry
farm forestry with requirements of 10% to enhance
a view of are not being implementation
attaining the 10% implemented. of the Farm
forest cover Forestry
regulations
Responsible Relevant Roles and Institutional Gap Recommendations
institution/stake wood Responsibilities Assessment
holder product relevant to wood
supply and demand
Kenya Forest All types of  Formulate  Difficulties in  Review of
(KFS) products policies, undertaking regulatory, institutional
guidelines statutory and extension mandates in
regarding the services due to poor Forests Act 2005
management, infrastructure and with a view of
conservation and inadequate capacity focusing of core
utilisation of all  Multiple licensing mandates and
types of forests authorities (for forest delegating
 Manage all state produce extraction and mandates such
forests use, e.g. charcoal). as extensive
 Provide forest  KFS does not have services to
extension adequate capacity to Ministry of
services, manage registered Agriculture
education and private forests, e.g.  Review of
training management of Witu charcoal
 Enforcing Forests Forest has been a licensing
Act and rules and challenge systems
regulations  Lack of standards to  Implementation
gazetted under define a mismanaged of standards on
the Act forest by KFS mismanaged
 Issue charcoal  Development of forest forest
production management plans is  Funding of
license, timber expensive and the level preparation of
harvesting of their forest
permits, implementation is low management
concession despite management plans (currently
licenses, agreements having addressed in the
transport permits been entered into with Forests Bill
and CFAs 2013)
charcoal/timber
export and import
permits
 Suspension/revoc
ation of licenses if
the holder
contravenes the
conditions set
Kenya Forestry All types of  KEFRI strategic  Some of limitations of  Capacity
Research products plan is to KEFRI include low building/enhan
Institute (KEFRI) undertake more funding, weak capacity cement of
discipline- to publish and KEFRI to fulfil
oriented and disseminate research its mandate
prioritised findings and  Carry out
research inadequate capacity to research on
programmes, and meet increasing appropriate
develop a flexible demand for tree seed tree species to
Responsible Relevant Roles and Institutional Gap Recommendations
institution/stake wood Responsibilities Assessment
holder product relevant to wood
supply and demand
problem oriented enhance supply
research structure
based on core
research
programmes in
farm forestry,
natural forests,
plantation forests
and dry land
forestry.
National All types of  Supervision and  Limited capacity and  Review of
Environment products co-ordination resources (capital and NEMA
Management over all matters human) to implement its mandates
Authority relating to the large mandates  Strengthening
(NEMA) environment and  Weak communication tools of NEMA
the principal and information sharing
instrument of mechanisms
Government in
the
implementation
of all policies
relating to
environment.
Charcoal Charcoal  To encourage  Some of the CPAs  The Charcoal
Producer sustainable issuing certificate of rules should be
Associations charcoal origin to charcoal reviewed with a
(CPAs) production by producers on behalf of view of
members KFS do not ascertain ensuring that
 Ensure that source. Most charcoal the objectives
members in Kwale is coming from of regulation
implement private ranches, trust and creating
reforestation and lands and some in order in the
conservation Lunga Lunga from industry as well
plans for Tanzania. This is in a as sustainability
sustainable way legitimising an are achieved.
charcoal illegality.
production  Most areas harvested  CPAs should
 Develop and by CPAs cannot sustain only be allowed
implement a code charcoal production in to operate
of practice for the future. within certain
purposes of self- levels of
regulation sustainable
 Assist KFS in yields
enforcing the
provisions of
Responsible Relevant Roles and Institutional Gap Recommendations
institution/stake wood Responsibilities Assessment
holder product relevant to wood
supply and demand
Forests Act 2005
related to
sustainable
charcoal
production,
transportation
and marketing
Community All types of  To protect,  CFAs have been very  Capacity
Forest products conserve and weak and despite building of CFAs
Associations manage forests several management
(CFAs) through approved agreements entered
forest with KFS, there has
management been little progress in
plans and Participatory Forest
KFS/CFA Management in Kenya
management
agreement
 To formulate and
implement forest
programmes
 Assisting KFS in
enforcement of
the Forests Act,
2005
Licensee (Saw Timber  Private investor  Lack of capacity and  Capacity
millers) Undertakes appropriate technology upgrading of
logging  Unsustainable supply of sawmills for
 Marketing and the product efficiency
sales  Low recovery in
 Customer conversion
care/service and
distribution

Timber yard Timber  Marketing & sales  Unsustainable timber  Establish code
merchants of timber supplies of ethics
 Poor code of ethics
contributing to trade in
illegal products
 Lack of appropriate
knowledge in business
management
Individual All types of Establish forest stands  Lack of capacity &  Training and
farmers wood in form of woodlots awareness capacity
and boundary planting  Lack of incentives to building
Responsible Relevant Roles and Institutional Gap Recommendations
institution/stake wood Responsibilities Assessment
holder product relevant to wood
supply and demand
for domestic use and grow/take care of  Provision of
sale. forest vegetation incentives to
 Lack of tenure (tree encourage
and land) growing of
 Inadequate farm sizes trees
 Lack of technical  Forming tree
knowhow of what to growing groups
grow and where to achieve
 Inadequate financial bigger
resources production
 Existing policies areas and
support relatively economical
larger legally identified land sizes for
groups but not wood
individuals  Land titles or
ownership
agreements
 Technical
knowledge and
training in tree
growing, what
to grow and
when
production
 Adequate
financial
resource to
enable
individuals
venture in tree
growing Policies
that support
individuals in
tree growing
Nyayo Tea Zone Fuel wood Creation of tea buffer  Lack of capacity (human  Capacity
Development zones to contain and equipment) enhancement
Corporation encroachment into  No forest management on tree
natural forests experience management

Private sector All type of Establish forest stands  Competition among  Capacity
(e.g Kakuzi, Tea products for fuel wood private sector layers and enhancement
growing production for curing communities in on tree
companies) tea but also sell for partnerships with KFS management
timber production  Competition with illegal
forest products
Responsible Relevant Roles and Institutional Gap Recommendations
institution/stake wood Responsibilities Assessment
holder product relevant to wood
supply and demand
 Competition of forestry
with other land uses
 Low capacity for many
small
enterprises/ventures
Customers (end All types of  Purchase timber  Differing tastes or  Embrace &
user of the products products preferences & promote value
product)  Embrace value technological changes addition in
addition wood product
Custom 
All types of Issue export/import  Poor coordination with  Harmonization
authorities products permit(s) other agencies such as of mandates
KFS
 Overlapping mandates
with KFS
Kenya All types of  Assist foreign and  Inadequate promotion  Establishment
Investment products local investors of forestry as a potential of linkages
Authority (KIA) and potential investment between KIA,
investors by KFS and other
issuing agencies
investment
certificates;
assisting in
obtaining any
necessary licences
and permits;
 Providing
information,
including
information on
investment
opportunities or
sources of capital.
 Promote, both
locally and
internationally,
the opportunities
for investment in
Kenya;
National Timber,  Advise the  Inadequate promotion  Establishment
Investment poles and Government and of forestry as a potential of linkages
Council (NIC) paper government investment between NIC,
agencies on ways KFS and other
to increase agencies
investment and
economic growth
Responsible Relevant Roles and Institutional Gap Recommendations
institution/stake wood Responsibilities Assessment
holder product relevant to wood
supply and demand
in Kenya; and
 Promote co-
operation
between the
public and private
sectors in the
formulation and
implementation
of government
policies relating
to the economy
and investment.
National Council  Assessing the  Population data has not  Annual reviews
for Population impacts of been adequately used in of wood
and population and forestry projections and demand and
Development making in planning supply based on
appropriate population data
recommendations and country
 Analysing demands
population issues
and developing
policies relating to
population
Kenya Forestry All types of  KFC is an  Training on on-farm  Review of the
College (KFC) products institution that forestry and PFM is still KFC training
trains at sub- inadequate programme
professional level
and is the main
trainer of
technical cadres
for the Forest
Department.
Universities/colle All types of  High Level  Training on on-farm  Review of the
ges products forestry training forestry and PFM is still KFC training
inadequate programme
NGOs/CBOs Research, advocacy,  NGOS have gained some  Support
awareness and credibility in advocacy government
promotion of local and awareness creation efforts in
communities and have strong links formulation,
engagement in forest with local communities. financing,
management and implementation
conservation , monitoring
and evaluation
of tree
investments
Responsible Relevant Roles and Institutional Gap Recommendations
institution/stake wood Responsibilities Assessment
holder product relevant to wood
supply and demand
Mass media All types of Produce and serialize  Inadequate reporting on  Training in
products tree programmes in wood demands and environmental
relation to increased requirements with reporting
demand of wood heavy focus towards
products as a result of deforestation
infrastructural
development,
increase in population
etc.
Parliament All types of Enact relevant policies -  Enact relevant
products and laws policies and
laws to address
wood demand
and supply
issues
County All types of  Maintain a viable  The recently formed  Development of
Government products system of green County Governments County Action
and open spaces have limited capacity Plans taking
for a functioning (financial and human) into account
eco-system; and have no forest the
 Work towards the management expertise constitutional
achievement and requirements
maintenance of a of 10% forest
tree cover of at cover.
least ten per cent
of the land area
of Kenya as
provided in
Article 69 of the
Constitution; and
 Prepare an
integrated
development plan
Kenya Forest All types of Overseeing the  Not fully operational  Operationalizati
Water Tower products conservation of water  Possible conflicts with on of the
Agency towers government agency
implementing agencies
such as KWS and KFS
likely
National Land All types of  Provide incentives  NLC is very new  Adequate
Commission products for communities institution and its funding for NLC
(NLC) and individuals to effectiveness in
invest in income delivering its mandate
generating will depend on political
natural resource good will. Currently,
Responsible Relevant Roles and Institutional Gap Recommendations
institution/stake wood Responsibilities Assessment
holder product relevant to wood
supply and demand
management NLC has been provided
programmes. with a low annual
 Provide measures budget of Kshs 241
to facilitate the Million shilling for
access, use and 2012/2013
co-management
of forests, water
and other
resources by
communities who
have customary
rights to these
resources.