An evaluation of the U.S.

AUTHORS
T. R. Klett  U.S. Geological Survey, Box
Geological Survey World 25046 Denver Federal Center, Mail Stop 939,
Denver, Colorado 80225; tklett@usgs.gov
Petroleum Assessment 2000 Tim Klett is a research geologist at the U.S.
Geological Survey, where he is responsible
T. R. Klett, Donald L. Gautier, and Thomas S. Ahlbrandt for assessments of undiscovered petroleum
resources worldwide. He received his Ph.D.
in geology and geochemistry from the Colo-
rado School of Mines. Prior to joining the
ABSTRACT U.S. Geological Survey in 1991, he worked
as a mud logger and later, in 1984, joined
This study compares the additions to conventional crude oil and
Exxon Production Research Company (now
natural gas reserves as reported from January 1996 to December
ExxonMobil Research Company).
2003 with the estimated undiscovered and reserve-growth volumes
assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment Donald L. Gautier  U.S. Geological Sur-
2000, which used data current through 1995. Approximately 28% vey, 345 Middlefield Road, Mail Stop 969,
of the estimated additions to oil reserves by reserve growth and Menlo Park, California 94025-2502;
approximately 11% of the estimated undiscovered oil volumes were gautier@usgs.gov
realized in the 8 yr since the assessment (27% of the time frame Donald L. Gautier is a geologist at the U.S.
for the assessment). Slightly more than half of the estimated addi- Geological Survey. His current research fo-
tions to gas reserves by reserve growth and approximately 10% of cuses on the resource potential of the Arctic,
the estimated undiscovered gas volumes were realized. Between and he recently completed a study of the San
1995 and 2003, growth of oil reserves in previously discovered Joaquin basin. Born in Los Angeles, Gautier
holds a Ph.D. in geology from the University
fields exceeded new-field discoveries as a source of global addi-
of Colorado and worked for Mobil before
tions to reserves of conventional oil by a ratio of 3:1. The greatest
joining the U.S. Geological Survey in 1977.
amount of reserve growth for crude oil occurred in the Middle
East and North Africa, whereas the greatest contribution from Thomas S. Ahlbrandt  U.S. Geological
new-field discoveries occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest Survey, Box 25046 Denver Federal Center,
amount of reserve growth for natural gas occurred in the Middle Mail Stop 939, Denver, Colorado 80225;
East and North Africa, whereas the greatest contribution from ahlbrandt@usgs.gov
new-field discoveries occurred in the Asia Pacific region. On an Thomas Ahlbrandt received his B.A. degree
energy-equivalent basis, volumes of new gas-field discoveries ex- (1969) and his Ph.D. (1973) in geology at the
ceeded new oil-field discoveries. University of Wyoming. He has 19 years of
industry experience in exploration and re-
search with ExxonMobil, BP Amoco, Amerada
Hess, and independents and 20 years of service
INTRODUCTION
with the U.S. Geological Survey. He currently
is the World Energy Project Chief in Denver
In June 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey published the results and led the 2000 U.S. Geological Survey World
of its most recent world petroleum assessment, exclusive of the Petroleum Assessment.
United States (U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment
Team, 2000). The study was widely distributed and has been ex-
tensively used and cited by a diverse audience that includes both
upstream energy supply specialists, such as oil and gas exploration

Copyright #2005. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.
Manuscript received October 6, 2004; provisional acceptance December 13, 2004; revised manuscript
received April 4, 2005; final acceptance April 6, 2005.
DOI:10.1306/04060504105

AAPG Bulletin, v. 89, no. 8 (August 2005), pp. 1033 –1042 1033

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors thank Peter J. McCabe, Gregory F.
Ulmishek, and Katharine L. Varnes, all with
the U.S. Geological Survey, for their editorial
reviews of the manuscript. The manuscript
was greatly improved by the critical reviews
of the AAPG reviewers John B. Curtis, William
L. Fisher, and an anonymous reviewer. We
also thank AAPG editor Ernest A. Mancini for his
review and comments. We acknowledge the
many people involved with the U.S. Geological
Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000
whose efforts led to the successful completion
of that project. Any use of trade, product, or
firm names is for descriptive purposes only
and does not imply endorsement by the U.S.
Government.
1034 An Evaluation of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000
and production companies, and a broader group of interested non-
specialists, such as various government agencies, economists, trans-
portation planners, and stock analysts.
Given the global economy’s dependence on crude oil (referred
to as oil hereafter) and natural gas (referred to as gas hereafter),
recent events and rising prices have intensified the discussion sur-
rounding the future availability of oil and gas supplies. Because
of the broad use and implications of the U.S. Geological Survey
study, it is important that its reliability and accuracy be evaluat-
ed. As a contribution to that evaluation, in this article, the U.S.
Geological Survey estimates are reviewed in the light of drilling,
discovery, and reserves data from the years since completion of the
study.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimated two types of potential
additions to oil and gas reserves. The first type was from discoveries
of new oil or gas fields (undiscovered conventional resources). Ex-
ploration for undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources is
fairly well understood, and the idea of reserves replacement through
new-field discoveries has been viewed as the main activity of the
oil industry since its inception in the 19th century. The second type
of reserve additions estimated in the U.S. Geological Survey study
was the growth of reserves in previously discovered fields, referred
to as reserve growth (also called field growth or growth-to-known
reserves). Compared to new-field discoveries, growth of reserves
in previously discovered fields is less well known and understood.
Although the World Petroleum Assessment was released in
June 2000, it relied mainly on a commercial database distributed
by IHS Energy (1996), formerly Petroconsultants, Inc., containing
field, reservoir, and well data current through the second quarter
of 1996. The study claimed to have a 30-yr forecast span, which
meant that its technical frame of reference and inferred validity
were applicable from the date of the data used in the study (end
1995) and 30 yr into the future, which would be the year 2025. This
study was not an attempt to predict the amounts of oil and gas
that would actually be found in 30 yr, but rather an estimate of
that part of the geologic resource endowment that could be con-
sidered accessible using existing technology in the foreseeable fu-
ture. The estimated undiscovered resources thus represent the oil
and gas fields that could be discovered, not fields that will be dis-
covered, in the period of the forecast span. The actual amounts of
oil and gas discovered would reflect the effects of politics and
economics, as well as resource endowment, technological devel-
opments, and adequate investment to develop the resource.
The cutoff date of the data used in the U.S. Geological
Survey study was about 8 yr prior to the most recently avail-
able IHS Energy (2003) data, which were current through 2003.
Therefore, 8 yr or almost 27% of the U.S. Geological Survey
forecast span has passed. The data from these intervening years
present the opportunity to compare the U.S. Geological Survey
predictions with the actual events of field discovery and reserve
growth. This study considers each of the 1995 estimates of reserve
additions in the light of new-field discoveries and
growth of reserves in previously discovered fields
through 2003.
DATA SOURCES
Field sizes, or recoverable oil and gas volumes, are the
sum of cumulative production and remaining reserves.
Field sizes used for the reserve-growth assessment in
the U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assess-
ment were from IHS Energy (1996). Although this
database was released for the second quarter of 1996,
only fields discovered before 1996 were analyzed. Re-
cent field sizes used in the analysis of additions to
reserves are reported by IHS Energy (2003). Most
fields used in the World Petroleum Assessment 2000
are also currently reported in the 2003 database, from
which the contribution of reserve growth is calculated
(see Table 1).
Sizes of Canadian fields used in the U.S. Geolog-
ical Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000 results
are from NRG Associates (1995), which contained data
for fields discovered through 1993. Additions to re-
serves from newly discovered fields and reserve growth
are not included in this study because recent (2003)
size data for these fields are unavailable. This exclu-
sion does not significantly affect the final results. How-
ever, the volumes of petroleum contained in bitu-
men sands of western Canada are the greatest single
addition to world reserves in the last decade. Because
the Canadian bitumen deposits are not conventional
accumulations, these resources are outside the scope
of this article.
Oil and gas resources of the United States were not
reassessed in the 2000 U.S. Geological Survey World
Petroleum Assessment, and analysis of those resources
is not included in this study. Estimates were previously
made by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1995 (U.S.
Geological Survey National Oil and Gas Resource As-
sessment Team, 1995; Gautier et al., 1996) and the
Minerals Management Service in 1996 (Lore et al.,
1996) using different criteria, such as longer forecast
spans and the use of plays as the basic geologic unit
for assessment. These differences yield results that are
sufficiently incompatible for rigorous comparisons.

Table 1. Supporting Data for This Study*

Number of Fields Recoverable Crude Oil (billion bbl) Recoverable Natural Gas (tcf)

Recoverable volumes as of 2003 13,058 1591 7479

Recoverable volumes as of 2003 (from 10,916 1522 7020
fields that had recoverable volumes
reported both in 1996 and 2003)
Recoverable volumes as of 1996 10,916 1351 5322
Reserve growth (traceable volumes) 10,916 171 1699
New-field discoveries 2142 69 458
Additions to reserves 13,058 241 2157
Percent of 2003 recoverable 11 23
volume from reserve growth
Percent of 2003 recoverable volume 4 6
from new-field discoveries
Assessed mean estimate of reserve 612 3305
growth starting in 1996
Percent of assessed mean estimate 28 51
of reserve growth realized
Assessed mean estimate of undiscovered 649 4669
resources starting in 1996
Percent of assessed mean estimate of 11 10
undiscovered resources realized
*Additions to crude oil reserves as billion barrels and to natural gas reserves as trillion cubic feet from January 1996 to December 2003 (8 yr, 27% of the time frame for
the assessment) for the 128 provinces were assessed in the World Energy Assessment 2000 (U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment Team, 2000).
Numbers may not precisely add because of rounding.

Klett et al. 1035

ESTIMATED AND OBSERVED VOLUMES
OF OIL AND GAS
U.S. Geological Survey Estimates of Undiscovered
Oil and Gas Resources
For the purposes of the U.S. Geological Survey World
Petroleum Assessment 2000, the world was divided
into 937 provinces based on geologic criteria. Of these,
petroleum resources are known to exist in 406 prov-
inces. Formal assessments were made of 128 prov-
inces, exclusive of the United States, which were
chosen mainly based on their history of petroleum
exploration and development. Seventy-six of the as-
sessed provinces accounted for about 95% of the
world’s known petroleum in 1995. Fifty-two of the
128 provinces were included for reasons other than
their ranking in volume of known petroleum. These
provinces were selected because of their local signif-
icance or because they might have large as-yet un-
realized petroleum potential. Within each province
studied, total petroleum systems were identified. These
total petroleum systems, in turn, were subdivided in-
to assessment units, which are rock volumes or areas
that are sufficiently homogeneous in terms of geology,
exploration maturity, and risk for assessment pur-
poses. Estimates of unknown, undiscovered oil and gas
accumulations are inherently uncertain. The U.S. Geo-
logical Survey reported its estimates as mean values
with probabilistic ranges. The minimum estimate (the
95th fractile) represents the undiscovered resource
at a 95% probability, and the maximum estimate (the
5th fractile) represents the undiscovered resource at
a 5% probability. The assessment procedures, input
data, geologic rationale, and results were documented
in considerable detail (U.S. Geological Survey World
Petroleum Assessment Team, 2000). A summary of
the methodology used to estimate the range of undis-
covered conventional petroleum resources is given in
Appendix 1.
As of December 1995, the undiscovered techni-
cally recoverable conventional oil available for discov-
ery in the 128 provinces (exclusive of the United States)
was estimated to range from 334 to about 1107 billion
bbl, with a mean value of 649 billion bbl. Undiscovered
conventional gas resources were estimated to range
from 2299 tcf at the 95th fractile to a 5% chance of
more than 8174 tcf. The mean value was estimated at
4669 tcf (778 billion BOE). Natural gas liquids were
separately reported as ranging from 95 to more than
378 billion bbl, with a mean value of 207 billion bbl.
1036 An Evaluation of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000
U.S. Geological Survey Estimates of Growth of Reserves in
Previously Discovered Fields
Reserve growth is the commonly observed increase in
recoverable resources in previously discovered fields
through time. This growth results from a combination
of several factors, including conservative initial esti-
mates, improvements in exploration and drilling tech-
nology, improved production technology, and various
political and economic forces.
Reserve growth is a reasonably well-known phe-
nomenon within fields of the United States, where
growth of known fields has accounted for most reserve
additions in recent decades. The growth of the United
States oil fields has been extensively investigated from
a statistical perspective, and various extrapolative func-
tions have been developed, which describe the rates
of reserve growth in the United States fields (for ex-
ample, Arrington, 1960; Pelto, 1973; Mast and Dingler,
1975; Attanasi and Root, 1994; Lore et al., 1996, 2001;
Root et al., 1997; Klett, 2003; Verma, 2003). Except
for a few studies (Odell, 1973, for example), reserve
growth is not nearly so well documented in a global
context, and at the outset of the U.S. Geological Survey
World Petroleum Assessment 2000 study, it was not
clear that significant global reserve growth had oc-
curred or could be expected or demonstrated. The
U.S. Geological Survey was able to review changes in
reported field sizes through time using the IHS En-
ergy databases. In a preliminary study, sizes of giant
oil fields of the world as reported in 1981 were com-
pared with the sizes of the same fields 15 yr later, in
1996. This initial comparison showed unequivocally
that the majority of the world’s giant oil fields grew in
size, many of them significantly (Klett et al., 2000a;
Klett and Schmoker, 2001, 2003).
This preliminary look at global growth indicated
that during the 15-yr period of 1981–1996, giant oil
fields added somewhat greater volumes of oil than
would have been predicted by the extrapolation of
field sizes using trends observed in the United States
oil fields (Klett et al., 2000a). This initial observation
confirmed that an estimate of potential growth of re-
serves in previously discovered fields should be in-
cluded in the U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum
Assessment study.
The first U.S. Geological Survey estimate of po-
tential additions to worldwide reserves was made by
extrapolation using a growth model determined by
the analysis of changes in the United States fields.
A summary of the methodology used to estimate
petroleum volumes added by reserve growth is given
in Appendix 2.
Various arguments can be put forward as to wheth-
er a growth function developed on the basis of the
United States fields can meaningfully be applied to the
oil and gas fields of the world. However, the growth
functions derived from the United States fields pro-
vided a straightforward way of making an initial es-
timate. Assuming that the world’s oil and gas fields
would grow in a manner similar to those of the United
States, it was estimated that over the 30-yr forecast
span, 612 billion bbl could be added to recoverable oil
resources in fields already discovered by the end of
1995. Recognizing the highly uncertain nature of this
estimate, a range of values was associated with it, from
zero, meaning that no growth of reserves is to be ex-
pected in the global context, to a high estimate of dou-
ble the value, meaning that reserve growth might ap-
proach twice the rates observed in the United States
oil and gas fields. Although this range is exceedingly
wide, it provided an initial estimate for further eval-
uation and established the importance of determining
the possibilities for worldwide reserve growth.
Observed Additions of Oil and Gas
Data for fields discovered after 1995 were derived from
the 2003 IHS Energy database, regardless of when the
data were updated and cumulative production or re-
maining reserves were reported. These fields include
only those residing in provinces assessed in the World
Petroleum 2000 project and not abandoned as of 2003.
The volumes added to reserves by reserve growth
were calculated by taking the difference between sizes
of the fields reported in the 1996 vintage of the IHS
Energy databases and those reported in 2003. As with
new-field discoveries, this was done regardless of when
the data were updated and cumulative production or
remaining reserves were reported. Many reporting dates
are earlier than the year of the database. Therefore, the
reported volumes are not fully realized and are thus
conservative with respect to the database vintage.
Fields were not included in this study if they
(1) were not assigned to provinces assessed in the World
Petroleum 2000 project; (2) were reported as aban-
doned in both the 1996 and 2003 databases; (3) were
reported as abandoned in the 1996 database and re-
ported as temporarily shut-in in the 2003 database;
and (4) did not have reported sizes in both databases.
Fields having recoverable oil or gas volumes reported
in 1996 but not 2003 were used in the reserve-growth
calculations. In such cases, the additions to reserves by
reserve growth are in terms of negative volumes. Field
volumes not reported in 1996 but reported in 2003
were not used in the reserve-growth calculations.
RESULTS
Global Additions from New Discoveries and Reserve
Growth, 1995 – 2003
In the 128 geologic provinces of the world assessed in
the U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assess-
ment 2000, more than 2000 new accumulations have
been discovered since the end of 1995. The new dis-
coveries are reported to contain about 69 billion bbl
of oil and 458 tcf (76 billion BOE) of gas as of De-
cember 2003 (Figure 1a). These volumes are likely
to increase because reserve growth is to be expected
in such young fields. Nevertheless, these data indicate
that only about 11% of the estimated undiscovered oil
and about 10% of the estimated undiscovered gas re-
sources were discovered in just under 27% of the fore-
cast span.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that about
612 billion bbl of oil and 3305 tcf (551 billion BOE) of
gas have the potential to be added to reserves in fields
that had been discovered before 1996 in the 128
assessed geologic provinces. By 2003, 171 billion bbl
of oil and 1699 tcf (283 billion BOE) of gas had been
added to the pre-1996 accumulations (Figure 1b).
This means that approximately 28% of the estimated
30-yr growth of oil reserves and about 51% of the
estimated 30-yr growth of gas reserves had occurred in
about 27% of the forecast span.
DISCUSSION
Additions to reserves of gas and oil should probably be
discussed separately. Although new-field discoveries
of gas added only about 10% of the mean estimated
undiscovered resource, on an energy-equivalent basis,
volumes of new gas fields exceeded the quantities of
new oil discoveries (approximately 76 billion BOE of
gas and approximately 69 billion bbl of oil). Moreover,
supply shortfalls in northern Europe and the United
States notwithstanding, a persistent global abundance
of gas exists, with approximately 5000 tcf (833 billion
BOE) of conventional reserves facing a market demand
Klett et al. 1037
Figure 1. Realized additions
to crude oil and natural gas
reserves compared to volumes
assessed in the World Energy
Assessment 2000 (U.S. Geo-
logical Survey World Petroleum
Assessment Team, 2000). Re-
serve additions are from Janu-
ary 1, 1996 to December 2003
for the 128 provinces assessed.
(a) Realized volumes added by
the discoveries of new fields and
volumes assessed through 1995.
(b) Realized and assessed vol-
umes added by reserve growth.
Approximately 28% of the as-
sessed estimated volume addi-
tions to oil reserves by reserve
growth and 11% of the assessed
estimated undiscovered oil vol-
umes were realized in the 8 yr
since the assessment (27% of the
time frame for the assessment).
Approximately 51% of the as-
sessed estimated volume addi-
tions to gas reserves by reserve
growth and 10% of the assessed
estimated undiscovered gas vol-
umes were realized. Volumes
are shown in terms of billion
barrels of oil equivalent. The vol-
ume of gas in trillion cubic feet
was converted to billion barrels
of oil equivalent by dividing
with an energy-equivalent factor
of 6.

of only about 90 tcf (15 billion BOE) per year as of
2003. New-field discoveries of conventional gas re-
placed most of the global production during the 8-yr
period, whereas additions to reserves in previously dis-
covered gas fields added more than 1700 tcf. Thus, the
8-yr period saw a great expansion of conventional
global gas reserves despite an already high reserves-to-
production ratio. Much of the world’s gas supply has
been stranded during these years, awaiting approval
and/or development of pipelines and liquefied natural
gas facilities. Therefore, all these additions to reserves
served to worsen a global gas glut and provided little
incentive for additional exploration for new gas fields,
although not necessarily affecting the gas shortfall in
Europe and the United States. The observed growth of
gas reserves in previously discovered fields exceeded
the U.S. Geological Survey prediction, despite little
market incentive for such global growth.
Although the U.S. Geological Survey study care-
fully avoided any prediction of actual additions to re-
serves during the 30-yr forecast span, the assessment
suggested that approximately equal amounts of oil
reserve additions could be expected to come from new-
field discoveries and from growth of reserves in pre-
viously discovered fields. At the time of the U.S. Geo-
logical Survey assessment, potential growth of reserves

1038 An Evaluation of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000

Figure 2. Additions to crude oil reserves as billion barrels from January 1996 to December 2003 by regions as identified by the
World Energy Assessment 2000 (U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment Team, 2000). The greatest amount of reserve
growth occurred in the Middle East and North Africa, whereas the greatest contribution from new-field discoveries occurred in sub-
Saharan Africa.

of world oil fields was seen as much less certain than the
potential for new-field discoveries. Nevertheless,
between 1995 and 2003, growth of oil reserves in
previously discovered fields exceeded new-field dis-
coveries as a source of global additions to reserves of
conventional oil by a ratio of 3:1. In terms of volume,
the greatest growth occurred in the previously discov-
ered oil and gas fields of the Middle East and North
Africa, followed by additions to reserves in previously
discovered oil fields of Central and South America
(Figure 2) and previously discovered gas fields of the
former Soviet Union (Figure 3). Only in sub-Saharan
Africa and in the comparatively minor (by compari-
son with the Middle East) Asia Pacific region did new-
field discoveries exceed reserve growth as a source of
additions. Many of the new-field discoveries in sub-
Saharan Africa probably result from exploration in the
deep offshore areas of western Africa.
The decision of investors in the global market to
preferentially invest in development of previously
discovered fields instead of exploration for new ones is
not explained by the statistics. However, several ex-
planations exist for such a decision. One explanation is
that the U.S. Geological Survey estimates are overly
optimistic, and that much smaller volumes of oil are
actually available for new-field discoveries than were
estimated in the U.S. Geological Survey 2000 study.
However, this explanation seems unlikely. In con-
trast to gas, oil may be transported from anywhere
in the world where it occurs, therefore representing
a complex balance of supply and demand. Until very
recently, the price of oil has been relatively low since
1995, the last reported data used in the 2000 U.S. Geo-
logical Survey study. At the same time, rates of ex-
ploratory drilling have also been at a very low level.
Reserves replacement has come about mainly through
enhanced development of previously discovered oil
fields. The preference for reserve growth in previously
discovered fields instead of wildcat exploration is not
surprising. Reserve growth represents a very low-cost,
minimal-risk strategy.
Most of the undiscovered resources reported in
the U.S. Geological Survey World Energy study are in
environmentally, economically, or politically difficult
locations. Some of the oil resources estimated by the
U.S. Geological Survey were expected to come from
remote localities such as northeast Greenland, but
the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 predicted that

Klett et al. 1039

Figure 3. Additions to natural gas reserves as trillion cubic feet from January 1996 to December 2003 by regions as identified by the
World Energy Assessment 2000 (U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment Team, 2000). The greatest amount of reserve
growth occurred in the Middle East and North Africa, whereas the greatest contribution from new-field discoveries occurred in the
Asia Pacific region.

most of the undiscovered oil could be found in and
around the existing major petroleum provinces of the
Middle East, North Africa, and the countries of the
former Soviet Union. Large parts of these impor-
tant areas were not available to exploration during
the first 8 yr of the forecast span. This is certainly the
case in some of the countries of the Middle East and
North Africa. Iraq, Iran, and Libya presented limited
investment opportunities during the 8-yr period of
this study, and investment in oil and gas exploration in
Russia, Azerbaijan, and the central Asian republics has
been limited also by various constraints on pipeline
construction and perceived political and economic in-
stability. In contrast, many previously discovered fields
have consistently presented a stable, known opportu-
nity for oil and gas investment. In this context, it is
surprising that as much as 11% of the estimated un-
discovered oil resource was found, and that 28% of the
estimated potential reserve growth was realized in the
8-yr period. This large volume of reserve additions
probably reflects the unprecedented global increase in
oil demand that has occurred in recent years.
APPENDIX 1: METHODOLOGY FOR
ESTIMATION OF UNDISCOVERED
PETROLEUM RESOURCES
The assessment required that the assessing geologists estimate the
number and sizes (as recoverable volumes, which equal cumulative
production plus remaining reserves) of undiscovered conventional ac-
cumulations based on perceived geologic models of petroleum occur-
rence. Estimates were made of the minimum, median, and maximum
number of undiscovered fields and the sizes of those fields, as well as
for average coproduct ratios. The minimum, median, and maximum
serve as the parameters of probability distributions for each of these
variables. Triangular distributions were mathematically applied to
parameters estimated for number of undiscovered accumulations
and average coproduct ratios. A shifted, truncated lognormal distri-
bution is applied to parameters estimated for sizes. Technically re-
coverable petroleum resources are calculated by statistically com-
bining probability distributions of the estimated number and sizes of
undiscovered accumulations, along with associated risks and prob-
ability distributions of coproduct ratios. For conventional accumula-
tions, Monte Carlo simulation is used to combine the variables. Prob-
abilistic estimates of petroleum resources are given for oil in oil
accumulations, gas (associated and dissolved) in oil accumulations,
natural gas liquids in oil accumulations, gas (nonassociated) in gas ac-
cumulations, and total liquids (oil and natural gas liquids) in gas ac-
cumulations. All appropriate descriptive statistics are reported for
each commodity, including central tendencies, variance, characteristics

1040 An Evaluation of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000

of the distributions (skewness and kurtosis), and values for every 5th
percentile. Mean values and the probability that those resources are
greater than the 95th, 50th, and 5th percentiles are typically used to
characterize the resources. Detailed descriptions of the methodology
are given by Schmoker and Klett (1999, 2000a), Charpentier and
Klett (2000), Charpentier et al. (2000), Klett and Ahlbrandt (2000),
and Klett et al. (2000b).
APPENDIX 2: METHODOLOGY FOR
ESTIMATION OF RESERVE GROWTH
Schmoker and Klett (2000b) and Klett (2003) describe the meth-
odology used to estimate potential additions to petroleum reserves
by reserve growth. Annual fractional changes in field sizes are used
to construct reserve-growth models and forecast multipliers. The
annual fractional change is the ratio of the estimated field sizes re-
ported from 1 yr to the next. Estimated sizes of individual fields are
first aggregated by year of discovery or by year of first production.
Annual fractional changes of these volumes are then calculated from
year to year and plotted with respect to field age, as years since dis-
covery, or as years since first production.
The procedure is analogous to the calculation of compounding
interest. Once the annual fractional changes are tabulated, a curve
(the annual growth function) representing annual growth is statis-
tically fit to the annual fractional changes, and then forecast mul-
tipliers are derived (Klett, 2003). Regardless of the method to fit a
curve, annual growth functions may be expressed as sets of discrete
factors of annual change (annual growth factors). One factor is de-
rived for each year since discovery (field age) instead of the change
in individual fields. A forecast function is derived from the products
of annual growth factors for a given forecast span for each field age.
Forecast multipliers may also be calculated from the cumula-
tive growth factors. The cumulative growth factor can be a running
product of the annual growth factors until a specified number of
years since discovery. The forecast multipliers are obtained by di-
viding the cumulative growth factor for any given field age into the
factor for the field age plus the number of years as specified by the
forecast span. The use of annual growth factors or cumulative growth
factors for calculating forecast function multipliers yields the same
result.
For the U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment
2000, all fields for which the year of discovery is reported were grown
unless the field was abandoned or could not be allocated to an as-
sessment unit. (To say that a field was ‘‘grown’’ means that reserve-
growth calculations were applied to obtain an estimate for the field’s
potential size at some stated time in the future, in this case, the year
2025.) The volumes of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids reported for the
field were grown using the same reserve-growth function for each
commodity.
The 30-yr forecast of world potential reserve growth prepared
for the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 was based on reported
field sizes as of the end of 1995. However, some fields in the IHS
Energy database and all fields in the NRG Associates Canadian
database had a pre-1995 reporting date. In these cases, the reported
field size was adjusted upward by growing the field from the
reporting date to year-end 1995, prior to growing the field an ad-
ditional 30 yr beyond 1995. In a few cases, the reported field size
was as of mid-1996; accordingly, such fields were grown for 29 yr
instead of 30 yr into the future.
In an effort to express the uncertainty inherent in basing a
world reserve-growth forecast on United States analogs, estimates of
world potential reserve growth for oil, gas, and natural gas liquids are
presented in the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 as subjective
probability distributions. These probability distributions, which rep-
resent the uncertainty of a fixed but unknown value, are developed
using a scenario-building approach.
The reserve-growth scenario reported as part of the World
Petroleum Assessment 2000 is based on the following three assump-
tions. (1) A symmetrical triangular distribution was the probability-
distribution type chosen to represent the forecast of world potential
reserve growth. Such a distribution is one of the simplest and most
effective ways to quantify data if the number of possible results
is broad, and the best estimate and skewness are underlain by much
uncertainty. (2) The point estimate of world potential reserve growth
obtained by applying a reserve-growth function derived from the
United States fields to world oil and gas fields was set equal to the
most likely value of the triangular distribution (which is also the mean
value and the median value of a symmetrical triangular distribution).
Reserve-growth patterns of the past were assumed to offer the best
model for the most likely reserve-growth patterns of the future.
(3) A point estimate of zero world potential reserve growth was
set equal to the minimum value of the triangular distribution. The
range of possible net world-level reserve growth in the future is
broad, and a choice of zero as the minimum reserve growth, below
which no value can exist, best captures this range. Choosing the min-
imum and most likely values of the symmetrical triangular distri-
bution for world potential reserve growth automatically defines the
maximum value.
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