x AÑO Q De mayor a Probabil

m3/s menor empirica %

1 1,963 2.27 14.87 1.92
2 1,964 4.80 11.67 3.85
3 1,965 6.29 11.35 5.77
4 1,966 4.25 8.69 7.69
5 1,967 3.33 7.87 9.62
6 1,968 1.55 7.62 11.54
7 1,969 3.14 7.38 13.46
8 1,970 3.48 7.20 15.38
9 1,971 2.71 6.66 17.31
10 1,972 3.42 6.41 19.23
11 1,973 4.82 6.29 21.15
12 1,974 1.82 6.02 23.08
13 1,975 6.41 5.93 25.00
14 1,976 4.36 5.64 26.92
15 1,977 3.59 5.20 28.85
16 1,978 2.22 5.06 30.77
17 1,979 1.84 4.82 32.69
18 1,980 2.46 4.81 34.62
19 1,981 2.14 4.80 36.54
20 1,982 2.44 4.36 38.46
21 1,983 11.35 4.25 40.38
22 1,984 5.93 4.04 42.31
23 1,985 1.73 3.96 44.23
24 1,986 2.97 3.89 46.15
25 1,987 6.66 3.59 48.08
26 1,988 3.32 3.48 50.00
27 1,989 6.02 3.42 51.92
28 1,990 3.32 3.33 53.85
29 1,991 2.75 3.32 55.77
30 1,992 8.69 3.32 57.69
31 1,993 7.38 3.14 59.62
32 1,994 5.06 3.00 61.54
33 1,995 4.81 2.97 63.46
34 1,996 2.83 2.83 65.38
35 1,997 11.67 2.80 67.31
36 1,998 14.87 2.75 69.23
37 1,999 7.20 2.71 71.15
38 2,000 5.64 2.70 73.08
39 2,001 7.87 2.51 75.00
40 2,002 7.62 2.46 76.92
41 2,003 4.04 2.44 78.85
42 2,004 3.00 2.28 80.77
43 2,005 2.28 2.27 82.69
44 2,006 2.70 2.22 84.62
45 2,007 2.51 2.14 86.54
46 2,008 3.89 2.00 88.46
47 2,009 1.89 1.89 90.38
48 2,010 3.96 1.84 92.31
49 2,011 2.00 1.82 94.23
50 2,012 5.20 1.73 96.15
51 2,013 2.80 1.55 98.08
Promedio 4.50
Desvesta 2.7744
Corf Variac 0.6171

P (%) T (años) y Qd
0.01 10,000.00 9.2103 23.1790
0.10 1,000.00 6.9073 18.1951
0.50 200.00 5.2958 14.7079
1.00 100.00 4.6001 13.2025
2.00 50.00 3.9019 11.6915
3.00 33.33 3.4914 10.8030
10.00 10.00 2.2504 8.1175
20.00 5.00 1.4999 6.4935
25.00 4.00 1.2459 5.9438
50.00 2.00 0.3665 4.0407
70.00 1.43 -0.1856 2.8459
80.00 1.25 -0.4759 2.2178
90.00 1.11 -0.8340 1.4427
99.00 1.01 -1.5272 -0.0573
99.90 1.00 -1.9326 -0.9347
 Para n = 51 α = σy/sx 0.1979 e = 2.71828182845904
u = ẋ-(μy/α) -1.44

METODO GRAFICO METODO DE GUMBEL

x AÑO Q De mayor a Probabil Periodo de y1 Parametro Prob Menor Prob Mayor Periodo de
m3/s menor empirica % Retorno -ln(ln((n+1)/i) b = α(x-u ) P(x) = e-e-b P(1-x) = 1-P(x) Retorno
1 1,963 2.27 14.87 1.92 52 -1.37 3.23 0.96108 0.03892 26
2 1,964 4.80 11.67 3.85 26 -1.18 2.59 0.92795 0.07205 14
3 1,965 6.29 11.35 5.77 17 -1.05 2.53 0.92343 0.07657 13
4 1,966 4.25 8.69 7.69 13 -0.94 2.00 0.87385 0.12615 8
5 1,967 3.33 7.87 9.62 10 -0.85 1.84 0.85334 0.14666 7 10 m3/seg
6 1,968 1.55 7.62 11.54 9 -0.77 1.79 0.84650 0.15350 7 2.2628336437 b
7 1,969 3.14 7.38 13.46 7 -0.70 1.74 0.83967 0.16033 6 0.9011755411 P(x)
8 1,970 3.48 7.20 15.38 7 -0.63 1.71 0.83437 0.16563 6
9 1,971 2.71 6.66 17.31 6 -0.56 1.60 0.81751 0.18249 5
10 1,972 3.42 6.41 19.23 5 -0.50 1.55 0.80920 0.19080 5
11 1,973 4.82 6.29 21.15 5 -0.44 1.53 0.80509 0.19491 5
12 1,974 1.82 6.02 23.08 4 -0.38 1.48 0.79557 0.20443 5
13 1,975 6.41 5.93 25.00 4 -0.33 1.46 0.79231 0.20769 5
14 1,976 4.36 5.64 26.92 4 -0.27 1.40 0.78149 0.21851 5
15 1,977 3.59 5.20 28.85 3 -0.22 1.31 0.76415 0.23585 4
16 1,978 2.22 5.06 30.77 3 -0.16 1.29 0.75840 0.24160 4
17 1,979 1.84 4.82 32.69 3 -0.11 1.24 0.74827 0.25173 4
18 1,980 2.46 4.81 34.62 3 -0.06 1.24 0.74784 0.25216 4
19 1,981 2.14 4.80 36.54 3 -0.01 1.23 0.74741 0.25259 4
20 1,982 2.44 4.36 38.46 3 0.05 1.15 0.72788 0.27212 4
21 1,983 11.35 4.25 40.38 2 0.10 1.13 0.72281 0.27719 4
22 1,984 5.93 4.04 42.31 2 0.15 1.08 0.71292 0.28708 3
23 1,985 1.73 3.96 44.23 2 0.20 1.07 0.70908 0.29092 3
24 1,986 2.97 3.89 46.15 2 0.26 1.05 0.70569 0.29431 3
25 1,987 6.66 3.59 48.08 2 0.31 0.99 0.69081 0.30919 3
26 1,988 3.32 3.48 50.00 2 0.37 0.97 0.68521 0.31479 3
27 1,989 6.02 3.42 51.92 2 0.42 0.96 0.68212 0.31788 3
28 1,990 3.32 3.33 53.85 2 0.48 0.94 0.67745 0.32255 3
29 1,991 2.75 3.32 55.77 2 0.54 0.94 0.67693 0.32307 3
30 1,992 8.69 3.32 57.69 2 0.60 0.94 0.67693 0.32307 3
31 1,993 7.38 3.14 59.62 2 0.66 0.91 0.66742 0.33258 3
32 1,994 5.06 3.00 61.54 2 0.72 0.88 0.65988 0.34012 3
33 1,995 4.81 2.97 63.46 2 0.79 0.87 0.65825 0.34175 3
34 1,996 2.83 2.83 65.38 2 0.86 0.84 0.65057 0.34943 3
35 1,997 11.67 2.80 67.31 1 0.93 0.84 0.64890 0.35110 3
36 1,998 14.87 2.75 69.23 1 1.00 0.83 0.64612 0.35388 3
37 1,999 7.20 2.71 71.15 1 1.08 0.82 0.64388 0.35612 3
38 2,000 5.64 2.70 73.08 1 1.16 0.82 0.64332 0.35668 3
39 2,001 7.87 2.51 75.00 1 1.25 0.78 0.63254 0.36746 3
40 2,002 7.62 2.46 76.92 1 1.34 0.77 0.62966 0.37034 3
41 2,003 4.04 2.44 78.85 1 1.44 0.77 0.62851 0.37149 3
42 2,004 3.00 2.28 80.77 1 1.54 0.74 0.61919 0.38081 3
43 2,005 2.28 2.27 82.69 1 1.66 0.73 0.61860 0.38140 3
44 2,006 2.70 2.22 84.62 1 1.79 0.72 0.61566 0.38434 3
45 2,007 2.51 2.14 86.54 1 1.93 0.71 0.61091 0.38909 3
46 2,008 3.89 2.00 88.46 1 2.10 0.68 0.60251 0.39749 3
47 2,009 1.89 1.89 90.38 1 2.29 0.66 0.59583 0.40417 2
48 2,010 3.96 1.84 92.31 1 2.53 0.65 0.59278 0.40722 2
49 2,011 2.00 1.82 94.23 1 2.82 0.64 0.59155 0.40845 2
50 2,012 5.20 1.73 96.15 1 3.24 0.63 0.58599 0.41401 2
51 2,013 2.80 1.55 98.08 1 3.94 0.59 0.57475 0.42525 2
Promedio 4.50 σy 0.55
Desvesta s 2.7744 μy 1.1738
Coef Varia 0.6171 2.1383

P (%) T (años) y Qd
0.01 10,000.00 9.2103 23.1790
0.10 1,000.00 6.9073 18.1951
0.50 200.00 5.2958 14.7079
1.00 100.00 4.6001 13.2025
2.00 50.00 3.9019 11.6915
3.00 33.33 3.4914 10.8030
10.00 10.00 2.2504 8.1175
20.00 5.00 1.4999 6.4935
25.00 4.00 1.2459 5.9438
50.00 2.00 0.3665 4.0407
70.00 1.43 -0.1856 2.8459
80.00 1.25 -0.4759 2.2178
90.00 1.11 -0.8340 1.4427
99.00 1.01 -1.5272 -0.0573
99.90 1.00 -1.9326 -0.9347