Seasonal Trend in the Soybean Market
Ricardo Da Costa
ricardof_da_costa@hotmail.com
Abstract
One hundred years of historical price records for
soybeans were analyzed in order to find its seasonal
trend. The months when most/least highs and lows are
reached were registered and analyzed to gain
understanding of the seasonal behavior of the market.
W.D. Gann’s findings on this subject were verified. The
soybean market showed a well-defined seasonal trend
with highs and lows in each of the four seasons. The
months of May, June and July had a greater probability
of extreme high prices. The month of October is the month
when most extreme low prices were reached. These
results should serve as reference for when to expect highs
and lows and for how long a typical move should last. The
analyst should then be able to know when to expect rallies
and reactions, tops and bottoms.
1. Introduction
Going over past price records W.D. Gann observed
that agricultural commodity prices follow a seasonal
pattern [1]. Some commodities have a more consistent
and reliable pattern than others; however, all of them
follow a yearly cyclical behavior.
A seasonal trend analysis is performed on the soybean
market employing the same data Gann used along with
more recent price records. The present study confirmed
and expanded Gann’s results. Additionally, it was found
that the soybean market has a very well defined and
consistent seasonal behavior. This knowledge proves to
be useful for market analysts, who in conjunction with
geometry and cycle analysis can carry out more accurate
predictions.
2. Seasonal trend
Each agricultural product has a particular crop cycle of
planting, growing and harvesting. This cycle is directly
related to seasonal changes. In consequence, agricultural
commodities are quite dependent on weather conditions
and its fluctuations.
For this reason, agricultural products display a yearly
seasonal behavior. Generally, each commodity market
will behave following a particular yearly pattern, making
tops or bottoms in similar months each year. This
knowledge provides a very rough but useful, yearly
roadmap for producers, traders and analysts indicating
them when to expect high or low prices.
2.1. Data sets and chart types
In order to find a reliable commodity market seasonal
behavior it is necessary to include in the study price
records going back as far as possible. In this particular
case of study the data set has a time span of 100 years,
going back to 1913 when soybean prices began to be
recorded. Only monthly swing data was available from
1913 to 1936 when futures trading began in soybeans [2].
From 1936 to 1954 May soybean futures data is used [3].
These two data sets were available and used by Gann.
From 1969 to the present time, cash prices recorded at
central Illinois are used [4]. This last data set was chosen
because it is more consistent over time, it doesn’t contain
artificial gaps due to contract roll-overs and it represents
the market close to its most elemental form [5].
In the case of May soybean futures and the more recent
cash prices at central Illinois, 2-month swing charts are
used in the study. This was done to filter minor moves
and keep only relevant tops and bottoms in the study.
3. Soybeans seasonal monthly lows
By going over past records it is possible to see in
which months the soybean market is more likely to reach
extreme low prices. Just as important, it is to know which
months are less likely to have market bottoms.
Additionally, it is useful to have an idea of the expected
behavior of the market after an extreme low is reached in
a particular month.
3.1. Months when most lows are reached
Figure 1 is a bar chart containing the percentage of
times the soybean market has reached an extreme high or
low price in each calendar month of the year. It is the
result of the analysis of the data sets described in the
previous section. In view of the fact that agricultural
commodity markets display a seasonal behavior, the
upper part of Figure 1 can be considered as the probability
of reaching a top in each month, while the lower part of
 30%

25%

20% 17%
15% 11%
11% 11%
8% 9%
10% 7% 8% 7%
4% 5%
5% 3%

0%

-5% -2%
-5% -4%
-5% -5% -5%
-10% -8% -7% -7%
-11% -12%
-15%

-20%

-25%

-30% -28%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 1
Percentages of times the soybean market reaches tops and bottoms in each calendar month of the year.

the chart indicates the probability of reaching a bottom in
each month of the year.
From Figure 1 it can be seen that most seasonal lows
are made in the months of October (28%), November
(12%) and February (11%). Together, these three months
comprise 51% of all lows in the soybean market.
This means that when the market is running according
to seasonal trend, the analyst will expect seasonal bottoms
and a change in trend in the months of October or
November, and later in February.
3.2. Months when least lows are reached
Figure 1 shows that June (2%), July (4%) and May
(5%) are the months when the least number of lows are
made. These are typically seasonal high months for
soybeans.
This does not mean that extreme low prices can’t be
reached in those months; however that is not the expected
market behavior. When the market is running according
to seasonal trend the analyst will not anticipate bottoms
around the summer months, which are seasonal high
months.
3.3. Market behavior after monthly lows
It is useful to have knowledge of the expected market
behavior after soybeans makes extreme low prices in each
month of the year.
While reviewing these results, it is of utmost
importance to remember that the soybean market follows
a seasonal trend. Not all months have the same probability
of reaching a bottom and show a change of trend.
Appendix A contains a series of charts with relevant
graphical information regarding this section.
3.3.1. January lows. When low prices are made in the
month of January, the market most likely rallies until
February (25%) and July (25%). Second on importance
are the months of April (17%) and May (17%) as possible
swing tops after a January low.
This means that the market will rally for only one
month and then react strongly; otherwise prices will
continue to go up until the seasonal high months.
3.3.2. February lows. February is an important month
for soybean bottoms. When extreme low prices are
reached in February prices typically rally until May (29%)
and April (25%). This suggests that after a February
bottom, the market is expected to rally from one to three
months before any important reaction takes place.
 It is important to mention that in 100 years there has
never been a July swing top after a February bottom. This
indicates that if the market doesn’t reacts in June, the next
month to look for a possible swing top is August.
This description agrees with Gann’s analysis [1]:
“…If Lows were reached in January and February,
according to seasonal trend, then you would watch the
Highs in May, June and July and, if the crop was very
short and the market running against seasonal trend, you
would expect Highs in October.”
“…therefore, the early part of the year you would
expect the most Lows to be made, but from March to June
there had been no extreme Lows for the year made;
therefore, during this period you should be careful of
being short, and expect the market to advance to seasonal
Highs in May, June or July.”
3.3.3. March lows. If a market bottom is made in the
month of March, prices will mostly rally for three months
until June (38%) or July (25%), when seasonal highs are
made.
3.3.4. April lows. When extreme low prices are
reached in April, the market generally rallies for three
months until July (50%) or one to two months until May
(33%).
3.3.5. May lows. May is not a month for seasonal
lows. However, after a May low the market has only
rallied into the June (50%) or July (50%) tops.
3.3.6. June lows. June is the month with least seasonal
lows in soybeans recorded history. After a June low,
prices go up for two or three months into August (67%) or
September (33%) which are seasonal months for tops or
secondary tops.
3.3.7. July lows. July is not a month for seasonal lows.
Nevertheless, going against the seasonal trend, after a July
bottom the market will most likely rally for five months
until December (38%) of or seven to eight months until
February (25%).
3.3.8. August lows. According to seasonal trend, after
the tops of June/July soybeans generally decline into an
August bottom when a rally follows, most of the time into
late August or September (15%). However, it is also
probable that the market will rally for seven to eight
months until March (23%), which is not a month for
seasonal highs. Second on importance for a swing top
after an August low are the months of November (15%)
and December (15%), rallying for three months.
3.3.9. September lows. When low prices are reached
in September, the market most likely will rally for one or
two months into October (18%) and November (45%).
Second on importance for a swing top after a September
bottoms is January (18%).
3.3.10. October lows. October is the month when most
seasonal lows are made. According to past records, after
the market bottoms in October it will most likely rally for
three to four months until January (20%) or February
(14%), which together comprise 34% of the cases.
In some instances, the market will not react for seven
to nine months until the seasonal months for highs are
reached in May (10%), June (10%) and July (18%), which
together are 38% of the cases.
According to Gann after October bottoms [1]:
“October is the record month for Lows…[and] during
the months of November and December, 5 Lows have
been made. Therefore, you should expect Soy Beans
to…[make] Lows from October to January, and some
years as late as February. When they follow the seasonal
trend they advance from February to May, and possibly
from June to July. During the Summer, if it looks like a
large crop, prices may work lower during August and
September, but if there was a crop scare during these
months an advance would take place.”
3.3.11. November lows. Together with October and
February, the month of November is important for market
bottoms. When soybeans reaches extreme low prices in
November the market typically rallies two or three
months into February (20%) and January (10%), which
add up to 30% of the cases.
However, according to past records, the most likely
behavior after a November bottom is to rally for five to
six months until May (35%) or June (15%), which
together comprise 50% of the instances. In this case,
swing tops are not to be expected in the month of July
(5%), even if this is the month for high prices.
3.3.12. December lows. According to seasonal
behavior, after a bottom in the month of December,
soybeans are expected to rally until January (29%) and
February (21%). Otherwise, the market will continue up
for five to seven months for a swing top in the month of
June (21%). This suggests that if extreme low prices are
reached in December, an initial rally will only last for a
month or two until a correction is due. If not, the market
will continue to go up until the summer months.
4. Soybeans seasonal monthly highs
From past price records it is possible to see in which
months the soybean market is more likely to reach
extreme high prices. It is important as well, to know
which months are less likely to have market tops.
Furthermore, knowing the expected behavior of the
market after an extreme top is reached in a particular
month is also of interest.
4.1. Months when most highs are reached
Figure 1 shows that most seasonal highs are made in
the months of July (17%), January (11%), May (11%) and
June (11%). Together, these four months comprise 50%
of all highs recorded.
This suggests that when the market is running
according to seasonal trend, the analyst will expect
seasonal tops and a change in trend in the months of
January then May, June and July.
4.2. Months when least highs are reached
Figure 1 shows that March (4%), October (4%) and
December (5%) are the months when the least number of
tops are made. Notice that October is a month for most
seasonal lows.
The fact that these months are not seasonal month for
tops in soybeans does not mean that extreme high prices
can’t be reached in those months. There are exceptions
and years when the market runs opposite seasonal trend.
But when the market is running according to seasonal
trend the analyst will not expect tops around March,
October or December.
4.3. Market behavior after monthly highs
In addition to the knowledge of when to expect a
market top according to seasonal behavior, it is useful to
anticipate for how long a decline will last after a top.
Seeing as October is such an important month for
bottoms, a great number of declines are finished in this
month
It is important to keep in mind that the soybean market
follows a seasonal trend. Not all months have the same
probability of reaching a top. Appendix B contains a
series of charts with relevant graphical information
regarding this section.
4.3.1. January highs. January is an important month
for soybean tops. When the market tops in January the
most important month for a market bottom is October
(33%) after an eight to nine months decline. Second in
importance is a two to three month decline until March
(20%) and April (20%).
This suggests that after a top in January the market will
most likely decline for most part of the year until October,
the seasonal month for bottoms. But a rally could be
expected between March and April.
4.3.2. February highs. Similarly to the month of
January, when high prices are reached in February, the
market will decline for eight months until October (40%)
or for two months into a March bottom (20%). This
indicates that if after a top in February the market doesn’t
reacts in March, it will most likely decline to an October
bottom.
4.3.3. March highs. The month of March is not a
month for seasonal highs, nevertheless when extreme high
prices are reached in that month the market will probably
decline for one or two months until May (50%), which is
not a month for seasonal lows.
4.3.4. April highs. When tops are made in April the
market declines for four to six months until October
(42%) or less probable August (25%). August bottoms
generally come after the summer tops as the beginning of
a rally until the secondary tops of August-September.
4.3.5. May highs. May is an important month for tops
in the soybean market. In this case, the market is
following seasonal trend with a decline lasting between
two to five months ending in October (42%), August
(21%) or September (21%). These three months comprise
84% of the bottoms made after a May top.
4.3.6. June highs. June is another important month for
tops. After soybeans has reached extreme high prices in
June, the market will most likely decline for four to five
months into October (44%) or November (17%). This
suggest that after June tops the market will most likely
decline directly into the seasonal lows of October-
November without any important rally.
4.3.7. July highs. July is the month when most
seasonal tops are made. From past records, after extreme
prices are reached in July, the market will decline for only
one month until August (23%). Otherwise it will decline
for three to five months into October (23%) or November
(17%) bottoms.
This indicates that it is very likely that after a July top
the market will decline until August and rally, making a
secondary top in late August or September. Else, the
market will decline into the seasonal low months of
October or November.
4.3.8. August highs. After high prices are reached in
August the market will most probably decline for one to
three months until October (46%) or September (23%).
4.3.9. September highs. Together with August, the
tops in September are generally secondary tops. From
these tops, the market typically declines for one to two
months until October (60%) and November (30%), which
are seasonal month for extreme low prices.
 18%

16% 15%

14%

12%
10%
10%
10% 9%
8%
8%
8%
8% 7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
4%

2%

0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 2
Percentages of times the soybean market changes trend in each month of the year.

4.3.10. October highs. From Figure 1 it is clear that in
100 years October is the month when the least number of
tops have been reached in soybeans. This is a seasonal
month for low prices. When this happens, the market is
running opposite seasonal trend and it declines until June
(40%) or January (20%) and February (20%). June is not
a month for seasonal lows, but this scenario indicates that
the market is running opposite seasonal trend, making
tops in seasonal low months and bottoms in seasonal high
months.
4.3.11. November highs. The tops reached in
November are generally followed by a decline of one to
two months until February (36%) and January (27%),
which are months for seasonal lows.
4.3.12. December highs. Together with November,
December highs are sometimes tops after an October
bottom. From these months, the market declines for one
or four months into the early part of the year until
February (43%) or April (29%), then resuming the
uptrend.
5. Soybeans seasonal trend changes
It is valuable to investigate from past records the
months in which trend changes are most likely to occur,
regardless if the market tops or bottoms. Additionally, it
is also important to know the months in which trend
changes are least likely to take place.
5.1. Months when most trend changes are
expected
Figure 2 is a bar chart showing the percentage of times
a trend change occurred in each month of the year. It
shows that the months of October (15%), July (10%) and
February (10%) are the months when it is more likely to
have a trend change in the soybean market.
It is not coincidence that these months are those when
a change in trend is most likely to take place, because
October and February are seasonal months for lows and
July is the seasonal month for highs. Nonetheless, from
Figure 1 February is also a month when some seasonal
highs could be expected. This means that those months
deserve more attention and the analyst should be prepared
for a possible trend change in them.
5.2. Months when least trend changes are
expected
Figure 2 shows that a change in trend is not to be
expected in the months of March (5%), April (6%) and
December (6%). This suggests that the market will
continue with its current trend during those months, and
any rally or reaction will most likely be short lived;
mainly in March, when it is very unlikely to have a
change in trend.
6. Soybeans average seasonal behavior
Figure 3 is a composite of soybeans seasonal trend
using a sum of normalized averages of the yearly
behavior of the market. This was performed using
MATLAB programing software and daily cash data [4],
from 1970 to 2013, a time span of 43 complete years.
It is possible to arrive to a composite by performing
the following three steps:
 Isolate each year’s market price action and
normalizing it.
 Adding together all normalized yearly data
day-by-day.
 Performing a final normalization.
The result from these operations is a very rough
composite or average behavior of the market in a year’s
time; in other words, a seasonal trend.
The method employed here to construct the results
shown on Figure 3 was more complex, but it follows the
above mentioned steps in its core.
The seasonal trend from Figure 3 agrees with the
findings of previous sections. At first sight it shows
seasonal bottoms in October and highs in June and July.
By blending the above results with those from Figure 3, a
typical seasonal behavior for soybeans can be described in
the following manner:
 An uptrend begins with lows in October or
November.
 A rally until November-December or
January-February tops.
 A reaction until January or February bottoms.
 A final rally until the summer tops from May
to July. From here a downtrend begins.
 A reaction into early August lows.
 A rally until late August or September
secondary tops.
 A downtrend returning to the lows of October
or November.
This describes the general yearly behavior of the
soybean market when it is running according to seasonal
trend. According to this study, the soybean market makes
a top and bottom in each one of the four seasons of the
year.
Figure 3
Soybeans seasonal trend
7. Summary
A study on the seasonal behavior of the soybean
market was presented. The initial approach was to follow
Gann’s methodology. It consisted in researching past
history to observe the months when it was most probable
to find lows and highs. It also incorporated the months
when it was least probable to find lows and highs and the
months when a change in trend was most and least likely
to occur.
This method was expanded by analyzing what is the
most probable behavior of the market after a bottom or
top is made in any given month. Additionally, a seasonal
trend curve was derived using daily cash prices.
The results verify Gann’s findings on the subject. The
soybean market follows a very definite seasonal pattern.
This knowledge should give an idea or serve as reference
of when to expect highs and lows and for how long a
typical move should last. The analyst should then be able
to know when to expect rallies and reactions, tops and
bottoms. With the aid of cycle and geometry analysis
market predictions should be more accurate and trades
should be more profitable and less stressful.
8. Bibliography
[1] W. Gann, How to make profits trading in
commodities, Pomeroy, WA: Library of Gann
publishing Co.Inc., 1942.
[2] B. Gould, "Prices Received for Soybeans," 2014.
[Online]. Available:
http://future.aae.wisc.edu/data/monthly_values/by_are
a/2051?tab=feed.
[3] Bradley F. Cowan, "Stock Market Geometry," 2014. twelve, San Diego, CA: Stock Market Geometry,
[Online]. Available: http://www.cycle-trader.com/. 1995.
[4] Illinois Department of Agriculture-USDA,
"GX_GR113, Illinois Grain Prices in Country
Elevators," [Online]. Available:
http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/gx_gr113.txt.
[Accessed 25 03 2013].
[5] B. F. Cowan, Market science volume I: Square of
 Appendix A

Monthly Highs from Monthly Highs from Monthly Highs from March
January Lows February Lows Lows
38%
25% 25% 29%
25%
25%
17%17%

13% 13% 13%13% 13%

8% 8% 8%
4% 4% 4%
Jul

Jul

Jul
May
Jun

Mar

May
Jun

May
Jun
Jan
Feb
Mar

Sep

Nov

Jan
Feb

Sep

Nov

Jan
Feb
Mar

Sep

Nov
Oct

Dec

Oct

Dec

Oct

Dec
Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug
Monthly Highs from April Monthly Highs from May Monthly Highs from June
Lows Lows Lows
67%
50% 50%50%

33%
33%

8% 8%
Jul

Jul

Jul
Feb
Mar

May
Jun

Sep

Feb
Mar

May
Jun

Sep

Feb
Mar

May
Jun

Sep
Jan

Oct
Nov
Dec

Jan

Oct
Nov
Dec

Jan

Oct
Nov
Dec
Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug
Monthly Highs from July Monthly Highs from Monthly Highs from
Lows August Lows September Lows
38% 23% 45%

25% 15% 15%15%

18% 18%
13% 13%13% 8% 8% 8% 8%
9% 9%
Jul

Jul

Jul
May

May
Mar

Jun

Nov

Jun

Nov

May
Jun

Nov
Jan
Feb

Sep

Feb
Mar

Sep

Feb
Mar

Sep
Oct

Dec

Jan

Oct

Dec

Jan

Oct

Dec
Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug

Monthly Highs from Monthly Highs from Monthly Highs from

October Lows November Lows December Lows
29%
35%
20%
18% 21% 21%
14%
20% 14%
10%10% 15%
8%
6% 6% 6% 10% 10% 7% 7%
2% 5% 5%
Jul

Jul

Jul
May
Jun

Nov

May
Jun

Nov

May
Jun

Nov
Feb
Mar

Sep

Feb
Mar

Sep

Feb
Mar

Sep
Jan

Oct

Dec

Jan

Oct

Dec

Jan

Oct

Dec
Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug
 Appendix B

Monthly Lows from Monthly Lows from Monthly Lows from March
January Highs February Highs Highs

May

May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Nov

Nov

Nov
Aug

Aug

Aug
Dec

Dec

Dec
Feb

Sep

Feb

Sep

Feb

Sep
Apr

Apr

Apr
Oct

Oct

Oct
Jun

Jun

Jun
Jan

Jan

Jan
Jul

Jul

Jul
-7%-7% -7%-7%
-13% -17% -17% -17%
-13% -13% -20%
-20%
-20%

-40% -50%
-33%

Monthly Lows from April Monthly Lows from May Monthly Lows from June
Highs Highs Highs
May

May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Nov

Nov

Nov
Aug

Aug

Aug
Dec

Dec

Dec
Feb

Sep

Feb

Sep

Feb

Sep
Apr

Apr

Apr
Oct

Oct

Oct
Jun

Jun

Jun
Jan

Jan

Jan
Jul

Jul

Jul
-6% -6% -6%
-8% -8% -8% -8%
-11% -11%
-17% -17%
-21%
-21%
-25%

-42% -42%
-44%

Monthly Lows from July Monthly Lows from August Monthly Lows from
Highs Highs September Highs
May

May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Nov

Nov

Nov
Aug

Aug

Aug
Dec

Dec

Dec
Feb

Sep

Feb

Sep

Feb

Sep
Apr

Apr

Apr
Oct

Oct

Oct
Jun

Jun

Jun
Jan

Jan

Jan
Jul

Jul

Jul
-3%-3% -8% -8% -9% -9%
-7% -15%
-10%
-23% -27%
-13%
-17%

-23% -23% -46% -55%

Monthly Lows from Monthly Lows from Monthly Lows from

October Highs November Highs December Highs
May

May

May
Mar

Mar

Mar
Nov

Nov

Nov
Aug

Aug

Aug
Dec

Dec

Dec
Feb

Sep

Feb

Sep

Feb

Sep
Apr

Apr

Apr
Oct

Oct

Oct
Jun

Jun

Jun
Jan

Jan

Jan
Jul

Jul

Jul

-9% -9%
-14% -14%
-20%
-20% -20%
-18%
-29%
-27%
-40%
-43%
-36%