Stantec Consulting - Socio-Economic Impact of Proposed Restoration of South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges

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Socio-Economic Impact of
Proposed Restoration of South
Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
May 10, 2019
Prepared for:
Peace River Regional District
Prepared by:
Stantec Consulting Ltd.
May 30, 2019

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Sign-off Sheet
This document entitled Socio-Economic Impact of Proposed Restoration of South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges was
prepared by Stantec Consulting Ltd. (“Stantec”) for the account of Peace River Regional District (the “Client”). Any
reliance on this document by any third party is strictly prohibited. The material in it reflects Stantec’s professional
judgment in light of the scope, schedule and other limitations stated in the document and in the contract between Stantec
and the Client. The opinions in the document are based on conditions and information existing at the time the document
was published and do not take into account any subsequent changes. In preparing the document, Stantec did not verify
information supplied to it by others. Any use which a third party makes of this document is the responsibility of such third
party. Such third party agrees that Stantec shall not be responsible for costs or damages of any kind, if any, suffered by it
or any other third party as a result of decisions made or actions taken based on this document.
Prepared by
(signature)
Stephen Roberts, B.Comm., MREM
Reviewed by
(signature)
Frank Bohlken, B.Sc., MRM
Approved by
(signature)
Marie-Eve Clayton, P.Eng., MBA
May 30, 2019

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PROPOSED RESTORATION OF SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN CARIBOU
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ I
ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................................... V
GLOSSARY ............................................................................................................................. VII
1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 1
2.0 BASELINE CONDITIONS .............................................................................................. 1

2.1 PRRD DEMOGRAPHICS AND LABOUR FORCE .......................................................... 1
2.2 MANAGEMENT OF TIMBER RESOURCES IN BC ........................................................ 5
2.3 FORT ST. JOHN AND DAWSON CREEK TIMBER SUPPLY AREAS, AND
TREE FARM LICENSE 48.............................................................................................. 5
2.3.1 Timber Harvesting Land Base ........................................................................9
2.3.2 Current Mature Merchantable Land Base .....................................................12
2.3.3 Volume and Value of Harvested Timber .......................................................15
2.3.4 Delivered Wood Costs..................................................................................17
2.3.5 Economic CMM Land Base ..........................................................................18
2.3.6 Wood Product Manufacturing .......................................................................22
3.0 TACTICAL RESTORATION PLAN FOR THE SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN

CARIBOU RANGES .....................................................................................................23
4.0 ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT ...........................................................................27

4.1 ESTIMATE OF REDUCTIONS TO AAC, AND AAC UTILIZATION ................................27
4.1.1 Reductions to CMM and ECMM Land Base .................................................27
4.1.2 Adjusted AACs, Utilization of Adjusted AACs, and Value of Delivered
Wood ...........................................................................................................29
4.2 ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE FORESTRY AND LOGGING SUBSECTOR .................30
4.2.1 Employment and Labour Income..................................................................30
4.2.2 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues ....................... 31
4.3 ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE WOOD PRODUCT MANUFACTURING
SUBSECTOR ................................................................................................................33
4.3.1 Wood Product Manufacturing .......................................................................33
4.3.2 Employment and Labour Income..................................................................35
4.3.3 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues ....................... 36
5.0 CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................................38
6.0 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................39
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1 Local Resident Employment (Persons), by Sector and Subsector....................... 4
Table 2-2 Annual Average Employment Income, by Sector and Subsector......................... 4
Table 2-3 Current FSJTSA, DCTSA, and TFL 48 Apportionments ...................................... 6
Table 2-4 Current FSJTSA and DCTSA Commitments ....................................................... 7
Table 2-5 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB ........................................................................ 9
Table 2-6 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB and CMM Land Base .....................................12
Table 2-7 Weighted-Average 2018 Delivered Wood Costs, FSJTSA and DCTSA/
TFL 48 ...............................................................................................................18
Table 2-8 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB and ECMM Land Base ..................................19
Table 2-9 Mills Operating with the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 ........................................22
Table 2-10 Inflation-Adjusted Value of Select Manufactured Wood Products in BC .............23
Table 3-1 Caribou Restoration Polygon Area from Preliminary Tactical Restoration
Plan ...................................................................................................................24
Table 4-1 Adjusted CMM Land Base .................................................................................28
Table 4-2 Adjusted ECMM Land Base ...............................................................................29
Table 4-3 Comparison of AAC between Base Case and Moratorium case in
FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 .............................................................................30
Table 4-4 Economic Impacts - Employment and Labour Income .......................................31
Table 4-5 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues .............................32
Table 4-6 Forest Products Manufacturing Scenarios..........................................................34
Table 4-7 Economic Impacts - Employment and Labour Income .......................................35
Table 4-8 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues .............................37
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1 Employment by Industry, PRRD (2011 & 2016) .................................................. 3
Figure 2-2 FSJTSA, DCTSA, TFL 48 and PRRD Administrative Boundaries ....................... 8
Figure 2-3 FSJTSA THLB ...................................................................................................10
Figure 2-4 DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB ........................................................................................11
Figure 2-5 FSJTSA CMM ....................................................................................................13
Figure 2-6 DCTSA/TFL 48 CMM .........................................................................................14
Figure 2-7 FSJTSA Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC ..............................15
Figure 2-8 DCTSA Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC................................16
Figure 2-9 TFL 48 Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC ................................17
Figure 2-10 FSJTSA ECMM .................................................................................................20
Figure 2-11 DCTSA/TFL 48 ECMM.......................................................................................21
Figure 3-1 Proposed Northern Caribou Habitat Recovery Areas and FJSTSA CMM ...........25
Figure 3-2 Proposed Northern Caribou Habitat Recovery Areas and DCTSA/TFL 48
CMM ..................................................................................................................26
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LIST OF APPENDICES
ESTIMATING CMM AND DELIVERED WOOD COSTS ............................ A.1

A.1 Current Mature Merchantable Land Base .................................................................... A.1
A.2 Delivered Wood Costs ................................................................................................. A.2
A.2.1 Administration and planning ....................................................................... A.2
A.2.2 Road construction and road management .................................................. A.2
A.2.3 Logging and on-site processing.................................................................. A.3
A.2.4 Trucking ..................................................................................................... A.3
A.2.5 Cycle time .................................................................................................. A.3
A.2.6 Silviculture.................................................................................................. A.4
A.2.7 Camp costs ................................................................................................ A.5
A.3 References .................................................................................................................. A.6
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODS ..................................... B.1

B.1 Economic CMM ........................................................................................................... B.1
B.2 Overlap between CMM and ECMM Land Bases and Proposed Caribou Recovery
Areas ........................................................................................................................... B.1
B.3 Adjusted ACC .............................................................................................................. B.1
B.4 Economic Impact Assessment ..................................................................................... B.1
B.4.1 Forestry and Logging Subsector ................................................................ B.1
B.4.2 Wood Product Manufacturing Subsector .................................................... B.2
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Executive Summary
Stantec Consulting Ltd. (Stantec) was retained by the Peace River Regional District (PRRD) to complete an
economic impact assessment of the proposed Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern
Caribou Ranges (Golder 2018) prepared for the British Columbia (BC) Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource
Operations and Rural Development (FLNRORD) on the forestry and logging and wood product manufacturing within
the PRRD. The scope of the assessment includes: Assessment of economic impacts resulting from estimated
utilization levels of reduced allowable annual cuts (AACs) compared to full utilization of the current AAC within the
Fort St. John Timber Supply Area (FSJTSA) and the Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area (DCTSA), and Tree Farm
License 48 (TFL 48).
Forestry
The FSJTSA and DCTSA fall within the Peace Natural Resource District (DPC) of FLNRORD’s Northeast Forest
Region (Province of British Columbia [PBC] 2018a). Combined, the FSJTSA and DCTSA cover an area of
approximately 6.9 million hectares (FSJTSA 4.6 million, DCTSA 2.3 million hectares) and encompass the
communities of Fort St. John, Trutch, Pink Mountain, Taylor, Chetwynd, Dawson Creek, Hudson’s Hope, and
Tumbler Ridge (PBC 2018b, 2018c). The current AAC in the FSJTSA is 2,115,000 m3 (1,200,000 m3 conventional,
915,000 m3 deciduous leading stands), effective May 10, 2018 (PBC 2018b, BC FLNRORD 2018c). The current AAC
in the DCTSA is 1,860,000 m3, effective October 30, 2014 (BC FLNROROD 2018d). The current AAC in TFL 48 is
1,550,000 m3. This reflects a short-term (2015 – 2020) increase in the AAC to allow for removal of mountain pine
beetle affected wood. The AAC for TFL 48 will drop to 871,000 m3 after 2020 (BC FLNRORD 2015).
Each timber supply area (TSA) contains productive forest land known as the Crown Forest Land Base (CFLB);
however, only a subset of the CFLB is both available and feasible to harvest. The area that is estimated to be
available and feasible to harvest is termed the Timber Harvesting Land Base (THLB). Based on the analysis
completed for this project, there is 1,185,356 ha of THLB in the FSJTSA and 1,216,740 ha of THLB in the DCTSA.
The THLB includes forest stands (represented spatially as polygons) that range in age from recently cut and planted
areas to old-growth stands. The Current Mature Merchantable (CMM) land base is intended to represent timber that
is ready to be harvested now or in the short-term. The total volume of timber within the CMM land base for both the
FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL48 is estimated at 438 million m3.
Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 1,800,000 m3 of timber was harvested from the FSJTSA
representing an 85% annual average utilization of the AAC (2,115,000 m3). Within the DCTSA, an annual average of
roughly 1,500,000 m3 of timber was harvested between 2015 and 2017 representing an 81% annual average
utilization of the AAC (1,860,000 m3). Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 900,000 m3 of timber
was harvested from TFL 48 representing an 59% annual average utilization of the AAC (1,550,000 m3). After 2020,
the harvest volume in TFL 48 will decline, relative to 2018 volumes, because the AAC will be adjusted to 871,000 m3.
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There are four mills operating in both the FSJTSA and DCTSA. The Paper Excellence BTMP deciduous pulp mill in
Chetwynd is currently non-operational; however, processing could restart late 2018 (Stantec 2018; IFS 2018). In total,
the FSJTSA has an estimated capacity of 492 million board feet of lumber, 660 million square feet (3/8” basis) of
oriented strand board (OSB), and 60,000 tonnes of wood pellets. The DCTSA/TFL48 has an estimated total capacity
of 532 million board feet of lumber, 345 million square feet (3/8” basis) of OSB, and 88,000 tonnes of wood pellets.
The forestry and logging sector and wood product manufacturing subsector provide substantial employment and
economic impacts (i.e., contribute to GDP and government revenues) to the communities within the PRRD. Together,
operations in FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL48 are estimated to contribute $1.1 billion in provincial GDP, 4,160 PYs of
employment, and $50 million in federal and $76 million in provincial government revenues (Base Case).
Table ES-1 Estimated Annual Economic Impacts Under the Base Case Scenario –
FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48
Wood Products Manufacturing

Base Case (FSJTSA) Base Case (DCTSA/TFL 48)
Provincial GDP (millions) $530 $500
Employment (PYs) 2,130 2,870
Federal Tax Revenue (millions) $24.4 $21
Provincial Tax Revenue (millions) $32.0 $35
While government-mandated caribou protection measures for the South Peace region have yet to be finalized, a
Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges (Golder 2018) has been
developed. This plan identifies initial restoration polygons and proposes caribou habitat management measures, to
serve as a basis for consultation on caribou protection within the region. Assuming that resource extraction activities
are prohibited within these initial restoration polygons (the Moratorium Scenario), it is estimated that the FSJTSA
AAC would need to be reduced by 4% to 2.0 million m3 while the DCTSA/TFL48 AAC would need to be reduced by
29.7% to 1.9 million m3 (“adjusted” AACs) because of the reduction in the CMM land base.
Because no changes in baseline harvest volumes are estimated under the Moratorium Scenario for the FSJTSA, no
changes in economic impacts are estimated. Economic impacts under the Moratorium Scenario and percent
reductions relative to the Base Case for the DCTSA/TFL48 are summarized in Table ES-2.
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Table ES-2 Estimated Annual Economic Impacts in DCTSA/TFL 48 – Base Case and
Moratorium Case
Wood Products Manufacturing

Percent (%) Change from
Base Case Moratorium Case Base Case
Provincial GDP (millions) $500 $430 14.0%
Employment (PYs) 1,650 1,425 13.6%
Federal Tax Revenue (millions) $21 $18 13.4%
Provincial Tax Revenue (millions) $35 $28 20.9%
Under the Moratorium Scenario wood products manufacturing in DCTSA/TFL 48 would experience a 14.0%
reduction in provincial GDP, compared to the Base Case, a 13.6% reduction in employment, and a 13.4% and 20.9%
reduction in federal and provincial government revenue. Due to the location of existing mills within the DCTSA/TFL48
(i.e., largely within and near Chetwynd), reductions in available timber, AACs, and harvesting and manufacturing
output would have an adverse effect within Chetwynd. Conversations with forestry companies in the region has
suggested that proposed caribou management measures could result in the closure of at least one mill in the region.
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Abbreviations
AAC Allowable Annual Cuts
BC British Columbia
BCTS British Columbia Timber Sales
BTMP Bleached Thermos-Mechanical Pulp
Canfor Canadian Forest Product Ltd
CMM Current Mature Merchantable
DCTSA Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area
ECMM Economic Current Mature Merchantable
FSJTSA Fort St. John Timber Supply Area
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IFS Industrial Forest Services Ltd.
FLNRORD Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resources Operations and Rural

Development
NRRD Northern Rockies Regional District
NRRDCD NRRD Census Division
NRRM Northern Rockies Regional Municipality
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OSB Oriented Strand Board
PY Person-Year
RRA Resource Review Areas
SCIPIOM Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output Model
TFL Tree Farm License
THLB Timber Harvesting Land Base
TSA Timber Supply Area
TSL Timber Sale License
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Glossary
Capital expenditures Capital expenditures refer to funds used to undertake new projects or
investments as well as funds used to acquire or upgrade physical assets
(e.g., property, buildings, or equipment).
Direct effect Direct effects measure the initial requirements for an extra dollar's worth of
output of a given industry. The direct effect on the output of an industry is a
$1 change in output to meet the change of $1 dollar in final demand.
Associated with this change, there will also be direct effects on GDP, jobs,
and imports.”
Gross domestic product (GDP) The total unduplicated value of goods and services produced in the
economic territory of a country or region during a given period and provides
information about the size of an economy. In this report, it is calculated as
GDP by Production. The production, or value added, approach to estimating
GDP is calculated as the difference between an industry’s output and its
intermediate consumption is its gross value added.
Indirect effect A measure of change due to inter-industry purchases as they respond to the
new demands of the directly affected industries. This includes all the chain
reaction of output up the production stream as each of the products
purchased will require, in turn, the production of various inputs.”
Induced effect A measure of the change in the production of goods and services in
response to consumer expenditures induced by households' incomes (i.e.,
wages) generated by the production of the direct and indirect requirements.
Input-output Industry Classification A variant of the North American Industry Classification System that is used
by Statistics Canada System of National Accounts and includes input-out
tables, national and provincial multipliers, and Statistics Canada
Interprovincial Input-Output Model, among others.
National and provincial multipliers From Statistics Canada, these multipliers are derived from input-output
tables and are used to assess the effects on the economy of an exogenous
change in final demand for the output of a given industry. Multipliers provide
a measure of the interdependence between an industry and the rest of the
economy. Multipliers show the direct, indirect, and induced effects on gross
output, the detailed components of GDP, jobs, and imports. The provincial
multipliers show the direct, and indirect effects.
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North American Industry Formally adopted in 1997 by Canada, Mexico, and the United States
Classification System (against the backdrop of the North American Free Trade Agreement),
provides a common statistical framework and definition of the industrial
structure of these countries. The Canadian version of this system is
managed by Statistics Canada and is comprised of sectors, subsectors,
industry groups, and industries.
Person Year (PY) A unit of measurement used to describe the amount of work done by an
individual throughout the entire year (based on an ideal amount of work per
day). For this analysis, a person year is equal to 2,080 hours.
Statistics Canada Interprovincial From Statistics Canada, this model is based on input-out tables, and is used
Input-Output Model (SCIPIOM) to simulate the economic impact on the business sector of an expenditure
(‘shock’) on a given set of goods and services or the output of one of several
industries. The model simulates direct and indirect impacts, including the
number of jobs created, indirect taxes and subsidies generated, and GDP
(among others).
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Introduction
May 14, 2019
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Stantec Consulting Ltd. (Stantec) was retained by the Peace River Regional District (PRRD) to complete an
economic impact assessment of the proposed Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern
Caribou Ranges (Golder 2018) prepared for the British Columbia (BC) Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource
Operations and Rural Development (FLNRORD) on the forestry and logging, and wood product manufacturing within
the PRRD. The scope of the assessment includes:
• Assessment of economic impacts resulting from estimated utilization levels of reduced allowable annual cuts
(AACs) compared to full utilization of the current AAC within the Fort St. John Timber Supply Area (FSJTSA)
the Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area (DCTSA), and Tree Farm License 48 (TFL 48). The DCTSA and TFL 48
are assessed collectively as DCTSA/TFL 48.
• Assessment of economic impacts on downstream wood product manufacturing within the FSJTSA and
DCTSA/TFL 48 based on estimated utilization level of reduced AACs under a Moratorium Scenario compared
to an assumed Base Case Scenario
To complete the forestry sector assessment, baseline information on the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48, including
estimates of the current mature merchantable (CMM) land base and economic CMM (ECMM) land base within the
timber harvesting land base (THLB), estimates of delivered wood costs, summary information on current forestry,
logging, and wood product manufacturing operations, and an overview of economic, demographic, and labour force
conditions are provided.
2.0 BASELINE CONDITIONS
This section provides baseline information on the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 including estimates of the CMM and
ECMM land bases, estimates of delivered wood costs, summary information on current forestry, logging, and wood
product manufacturing operations, and an overview of economic, demographic, and labour force conditions.
2.1 PRRD DEMOGRAPHICS AND LABOUR FORCE

The PRRD was established in 1987 through the division of the former Peace River-Liard Regional District (PRRD
2018a). The PRRD encompasses seven municipalities (District of Chetwynd [Chetwynd], City of Dawson Creek
[Dawson Creek], City of Fort St. John [Fort St. John], District of Hudson’s Hope [Hudson’s Hope], Village of Pouce
Coupe [Pouce Coupe], District of Taylor [Taylor], and the District of Tumbler Ridge [Tumbler Ridge]), seven First
Nations (Blueberry River First Nations, Area B; Doig River First Nation, Area B; Halfway River First Nation, Area B;
Kwadacha First Nation, Area B; Saulteau First Nations, Area E; Tsay Keh Bene Band, Area B; and West Moberly
First Nations, Area E), as well as four unincorporated regional district electoral areas (Electoral Area B, Electoral Area
C, Electoral Area D, and Electoral Area E) encompassing 46 named areas 1.
1 Electoral Area B (Altona, Buick, Cecil Lake, Clayhurst, Clearview, Flatrock, Goodlow, Montney, North Pine,
Osborn, Pink Mountain, Prespatou, Rose Prairie, Sikanni Chief, Trtch, Upper Cache, Upper Halfway, Wonowon),
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Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
In 2016, the population of the PRRD was estimated at 62,942 persons, up 4.8% from 2011. Approximately 15.3% of
the population of the PRRD identified as being Aboriginal in 2016. Comparatively, the population of BC increased
5.6% between 2016 and 2011 (to 4,648,055 persons) with only 5.9% of the population identifying as Aboriginal.
In 2016, an estimated 48,325 persons within the PRRD were of working age (persons aged 15 years and older). Of
this, 35,175 persons were considered part of the labour force (representing a labour force participation rate of
72.8%). Of those persons comprising the labour force, 30,925 persons were employed (equaling an employment rate
of 64.0%) and 4,250 persons were unemployed (equaling an unemployment rate of 12.1%). Compared to the
provincial average, the PRRD had a greater participation rate (provincial average of 63.9%), lower employment rate
(provincial average of 59.6%), and a higher unemployment rate (provincial average of 6.7%).
Employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, construction, and retail trade accounted for the greatest
percentage of employment in the PRRD in 2011 and 2016 accounting for 35.4% and 33.0% of the labour force
(employed), respectively (Figure 2-1). While employment in these three industries accounted for the greatest
percentage of employed persons, employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction saw the largest
decrease in employment, dropping 17.6% between 2011 and 2016. This was followed by public changes in public
administration (-17.4% in arts and entertainment, and -15.8% in recreation). The greatest increase in employment
was seen in administrative and support, and waste management and remediation services at 51.8%, followed by
manufacturing at 30.3%.
Electoral Area C (Baldonnel, Charlie Lake, Clairmont, Grandhaven, Old Fort, Two Rivers), Electoral Area D
(Arras, Bessborough, Cutbank, Doe River, Farmington, Kelly Lake, Kilkerran, One Island Lake, Rolla, Tomslake,
Tower Lake, Tupper), and Electoral Ara E (East Pine, Groundbirch, Hasler Creek, Jackfish, Lone Prairie,
McLeod, Moberly Lake, Pine Valley, Progress, Sunset Prairie) (PRRD 2018b).
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Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
14.0% 100.0%
Percent Change (2011-2016)

12.0% 80.0%
Percent of Employment
10.0% 60.0%
8.0% 40.0%
6.0% 20.0%
4.0% 0.0%
2.0% -20.0%
0.0% -40.0%
NAICS Classification
2011 Percent 2016 Percent Percent Change
SOURCE: Statistics Canada 2017a
Figure 2-1 Employment by Industry, PRRD (2011 & 2016)
Local resident employment estimates for the forestry and logging sector and wood product manufacturing subsector
are provided in Table 2-1 for the PRRD North of the Peace River (PRRD North), PRRD South of the Peace River
(PRRD South), the entirety of the PRRD, and BC. In 2016, a combined 1.8% of PRRDs employed labour force
worked in the forestry and logging sector and 1.4% in the wood product manufacturing subsector.
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Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
Table 2-1 Local Resident Employment (Persons), by Sector and Subsector
Forestry and Logging Sector Wood Product Manufacturing Subsector

Location 2011 2016 2011 2016
PRRD North 230 310 515 675
PRRD South 240 335 525 680
PRRD 470 645 1,035 1,350
BC 14,600 19,400 65,900 40,500
NOTES:
PRRD employment, by sector and subsector, were estimated by applying provincial employment ratios (calculated
as the number of persons employed in each of the sectors and subsectors to BC employment in corresponding
two-digit NAICS codes [e.g., BC employment in wood product manufacturing / BC employment in NAICS 31-33
manufacturing]) to PRRD employment by two-digit NAICS code.
SOURCE:
BC Stats 2018a; Statistics Canada 2013a, 2017a
Estimates of average employment incomes for the forestry and logging sector and wood product manufacturing
subsector across BC are provided in Table 2-2. Between 2011 and 2016 average employment wages increased 24%
in forestry and logging and 13% in wood product manufacturing.
Table 2-2 Annual Average Employment Income, by Sector and Subsector
Forestry and Logging Sector Wood Product Manufacturing Subsector

Location 2010 2015 2010 2015
BC 42,350 52,402 49,694 56,350
NOTES:
Employment income is based on the average of the following National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes -
Forestry and Logging (NOCs 821, 824, 842, 86), Wood Product Manufacturing (NOCs 921, 943, 96), Mining
(NOCs 823, 841, 921, 941, 86). For tourism, annual employment income is based on BC Stats and Destination BC
published wage and salary and employment estimates.
SOURCE:
Statistics Canada 2013a, 2017a
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Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
2.2 MANAGEMENT OF TIMBER RESOURCES IN BC

FLNRORD is responsible for the management of BC’s Crown forests. BC is divided into eight Forest Regions, 24
Forest Districts, 38 Timber Supply Areas (TSAs), and 34 Tree Farm Licenses (TFLs). The volume of Crown timber
that can be cut annually within BC is the AAC, which is determined through timber supply reviews completed at the
TSA level. Rights to harvest Crown timber are granted through apportionment of the AAC and issuance tenures,
mechanisms from which the government transfers specific rights to use Crown resources (BC FLNRORD 2018a,
201b).
Numerous forms of tenure are used to transfer timber harvesting rights. Timber tenures are volume- or area-based
and replaceable and/or non-replaceable. Volume-based tenures grant licenses the right to harvest a certain amount
of tenure within a TSA, allowing for multiple licensees to harvest, whereas area-based tenures grant the licensee
virtually exclusive rights to harvest timber within a specified area (BC FLNRORD 2012). Replaceable tenures are
generally of terms ranging from 20 to 25 years and may be updated or replaced every five to 10 years, whereas non-
replaceable tenures are issued on fixed term duration to achieve specific goals (BC FLNRORD 2012). A summary of
forms of tenure agreements is provided in Appendix A.
2.3 FORT ST. JOHN AND DAWSON CREEK TIMBER SUPPLY AREAS,
AND TREE FARM LICENSE 48
The FSJTSA and DCTSA fall within the Peace Natural Resource District (DPC) of FLNRORD’s Northeast Forest
Region (Province of British Columbia [PBC] 2018a); see Figure 2-2. Combined, the FSJTSA and DCTSA cover an
area of approximately 6.9 million hectares (FSJTSA 4.6 million, DCTSA 2.3 million hectares) and encompass the
communities of Fort St. John, Trutch, Pink Mountain, and Taylor, Chetwynd, Dawson Creek, Hudson’s Hope, and
Tumbler Ridge (PBC 2018b, 2018c).
The current AAC in the FSJTSA is 2,115,000 m3 (1,200,000 m3 conventional, 915,000 m3 deciduous leading stands),
effective May 10, 2018 (PBC 2018b, BC FLNRORD 2018c). The current AAC in the DCTSA is 1,860,000 m3,
effective October 30, 2014 (BC FLNROROD 2018d). The current AAC in TFL 48 is 1,550,000 m3. This reflects a
short-term (2015 – 2020) increase in the AAC to allow for removal of mountain pine beetle affected wood. The AAC
for TFL 48 will drop to 871,000 m3 after 2020 (BC FLNRORD 2015). Current apportionments within the FSJTSA,
DCTSA, and TFL 48 are summarized in Table 2-3.
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Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
Table 2-3 Current FSJTSA, DCTSA, and TFL 48 Apportionments
Form of Agreement Volume (m3) Percent of AAC (%)

FSJTSA
Forest Licenses Replaceable 394,952 18.7
Forest Licenses Non-Replaceable 462,085 21.8
BC Timber Sales (BCTS) Forest License Non-Replaceable 70,000 3.3
BCTS Timber Sale License (TSL)/License to Cut 552,059 26.1
Pulpwood Agreement TSL 518,000 24.5
Community Forest Agreement 20,000 0.9
Woodlot License 36,459 1.7
Forest Service Reserve 61,445 2.9
Total 2,115,000 100.0
DCTSA
Forest Licenses Replaceable 371,567 20.0
Forest Licenses Non-Replaceable 700,000 37.6
First nations Woodland Tenure 77,913 4.2
BCTS TSL/License to Cut 401,186 21.6
Pulpwood Agreement TSL 214,141 11.5
Community Forest Agreement 35,000 1.9
Forest Service Reserve 60,193 3.2
Total 1,860,000 100.0
TFL 48
Tree Farm Licensee Schedule B 77.7
BCTS TSL/License to Cut 15.9
Other 6.5
Total 100.0
SOURCE:
BC FLNRORD 2018b, 2018c, 2019
Of the total AAC apportioned in the FSJTSA (2,115,000 m3), 1,325,037 m3 is currently committed (62.6%), 18.7% to a
replaceable forest license held by Canfor (the primary license holder in the TSA), 19.5% to non-replaceable forest
licenses held by Canfor West Moberly First Nation, Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd., and Mackenzie Pulp Mill
Corporation, and 24.5% to pulpwood agreements TSLs held by Canadian Forest Product Ltd. (Canfor), Chetwynd
Mechanical Pulp Inc., and Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. (Table 2-4). Within the DCTSA 1,285,708 m3 (60.8%) of the
ACC (1,860,000 m3) is currently committed, 20.0% to a replaceable forest license held by West Fraser Mills (the
primary license holder in the TSA), 37.6% to non-replaceable forest licenses held by Canfor, West Moberly First
Nation, Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd., and Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc., and 11.5% to pulpwood agreement TSLs
6
May 30, 2019
R-2
RANGES
Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
held by Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd., and Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc. For TFL 48 only apportionments are
assigned.
Table 2-4 Current FSJTSA and DCTSA Commitments
AAC Non-ACC
License Volume Volume
Form of Agreement Licensee Number (m3) (m3)
FSJTSA
Forest Licenses Replaceable Canadian Forest Product Ltd. A18154 394,952 -
(Canfor)
Subtotal 394,952 -
Forest Licenses Non- Canfor; West Moberly First A56771 150,000 -
Replaceable Nation
Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. A60049 193,000 -
Mackenzie Pulp Mill Corporation A60972 69,085 14,409
Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. A85946 - 150,000
Subtotal 412,085 164,409
Pulpwood Agreement TSL Canfor PAG12 170,000 -
Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc. PAG13 18,000 -
Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. PAG20 330,000 -
Subtotal 518,000 -
Total 1,325,037 164,409
DCTSA
Forest Licenses Replaceable West Fraser Mills A13840 371,567 -
Subtotal 371,567 -
Forest Licenses Non- Canfor; West Moberly First A57332 100,000 -
Replaceable Nation
Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. A60064 348,000 -
Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc. A70730 252,000
Subtotal 700,000 -
Pulpwood Agreement TSL Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. PAG10 104,000 -
Chetwynd Mechanical Pulp Inc. PAG13 110,141 -
Subtotal 214,141 -
Total 1,285,708 -
SOURCE:
BC FLNRORD 2018b, 2018c
7
May 30, 2019
R-2
Stone
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2. Data Sources: DataBC, Government of British Columbia;
Figure No.
Natural Resources Canada
Municipal Boundary 2-2
Title
Fort St. John Timber Supply Area,

Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area,
Disclaimer: Stantec assumes no responsibility for data supplied in electronic format. The recipient accepts full responsibility for verifying the accuracy and completeness of the data.
The recipient releases Stantec, its officers, employees, consultants and agents, from any and all claims arising in any way from the content or provision of the data.
and Peace River Regional District
May 30, 2019

R-2
RANGES
Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
2.3.1 Timber Harvesting Land Base
Each TSA and TFL contains productive forest land known as the Crown Forest Land Base (CFLB); however, only a
subset of the CFLB is both available and feasible to harvest. The area that is estimated to be available and feasible to
harvest is termed the Timber Harvesting Land Base (THLB). Based on the analysis completed for this project using
the available spatial data layers, there is 1,185,384 ha of THLB in the FSJTSA and 1,216,740 ha of THLB in
DCTSA/TFL 48. The estimated volume of timber within the Fort St. John and Dawson Creek THLBs is 244 million m3
and 260 million m3 respectively. Table 2-5 provides a breakdown of the THLB by stand type. THLBs are illustrated on
Figure 2-3 and Figure 2-4.
Table 2-5 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB
THLB
Stand Type Volume (m3) Area (ha)
FSJTSA
Deciduous 97,698,966 357,865
Coniferous 86,769,499 563,221
Mixedwood 59,209,639 264,298
Total 243,678,104 1,185,384
DCTSA/TFL 48
Deciduous 65,395,199 303,489
Coniferous 157,592,494 754,078
Mixedwood 37,350,966 159,174
Total 260,338,658 1,216,740
9
May 30, 2019
R-2
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Figure No.
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Title
Fort St.John Timber Supply Area

Timber Harvesting Land Base
May 30, 2019

R-2
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Title
Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area/

Tree Farm Licence 48
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May 30, 2019

R-2
RANGES
Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
2.3.2 Current Mature Merchantable Land Base
areas to old-growth stands. The Current Mature Merchantable (CMM) land base is intended to represent timber that
is ready to be harvested now or in the short-term. The CMM land base within the FSJTSA is an area of approximately
500,000 ha containing 192 million m3 of CMM timber, accounting for approximately 42% of the total THLB area and
79% of total THLB timber volume (Table 2-6). The CMM land base within the DCTSA/TFL 48 is an area of
approximately 678,000 ha containing 246 million m3 of CMM timber, accounting for approximately 56% of the total
THLB area and 73% of total THLB timber volume. Figure 2-5 and Figure 2-6 provide illustrations of the FSJTSA and
DCTSA/TFL 48 CMM respectively.
Table 2-6 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB and CMM Land Base
CMM Land Base

Volume Area
Percent of THLB Percent of THLB
Stand Type m3 (%) Ha (%)
FSJTSA
Deciduous 63,908,550 65.4 125,969 35.2
Coniferous 79,434,806 91.5 253,121 44.9
Mixedwood 49,150,213 83.0 122,803 46.5
Total 192,493,568 79.0 501,893 42.3
DCTSA/TFL 48
Deciduous 46,162,543 53.8 103,356 34.1
Coniferous 166,772,347 81.9 491,525 65.2
Mixedwood 32,544,324 68.9 83,488 52.5
Total 245,479,213 72.9 678,369 55.8
12
May 30, 2019
R-2
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Figure No.
2-6
Title
Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area/

Tree Farm Licence 48
Current Mature Merchantable Land
May 30, 2019

R-2
RANGES
Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
2.3.3 Volume and Value of Harvested Timber
Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 1,800,000 m3 of timber was harvested from the FSJTSA
representing an 88% annual average utilization of the AAC (2,115,000 m3). The estimated value of harvested timber
increased from approximately $99 million in 2015 to $157 million in 2018 (Figure 2-7).
2,500,000 180,000,000
160,000,000
2,000,000
140,000,000
Value (2018 Dollars)

120,000,000
1,500,000
Volume (m3)
100,000,000
80,000,000
1,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
500,000
20,000,000
- -
2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
Harvested Volume AAC Value of Harvest (2018 Dollars)
SOURCE: BC FLNRO 2018c, 2018e; BC Coast Log Market Reports 2018 and BC Interior Log Market Values 2018
Figure 2-7 FSJTSA Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC
Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 1,300,000 m3 of timber was harvested from the DCTSA
decreased from approximately $76 million in 2015 to $58 million in 2018 (with a short-term increase from 2015 to
2016 to $77 million; Figure 2-8).
15
May 30, 2019
R-2
RANGES
Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
2,000,000 120,000,000
1,800,000
100,000,000
1,600,000
1,400,000

80,000,000
1,200,000
Volume (m3)
1,000,000 60,000,000
800,000
40,000,000
600,000
400,000
20,000,000
200,000
- -
2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
SOURCE: BC FLNRO 2018d, 2018e; BC Coast Log Market Reports 2018 and BC Interior Log Market Values 2018
Figure 2-8 DCTSA Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC
Between 2015 and 2017, an annual average of roughly 900,000 m3 of timber was harvested from TFL 48
increased from approximately $42 million in 2015 to $63 million in 2018 (Figure 2-9). After 2020, the harvest volume
in TFL 48 will decline, relative to 2018 volumes, because the AAC will be adjusted to 871,000 m3.
16
May 30, 2019
R-2
RANGES
Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
1,800,000 90,000,000
1,600,000 80,000,000
1,400,000 70,000,000
1,200,000 60,000,000

Volume (m3)
1,000,000 50,000,000
800,000 40,000,000
600,000 30,000,000
400,000 20,000,000
200,000 10,000,000
- -
2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
SOURCE: BC FLNRO 2015, 2018e; BC Coast Log Market Reports 2018 and BC Interior Log Market Values 2018
Figure 2-9 TFL 48 Harvested Volume and Value Relative to the ACC
2.3.4 Delivered Wood Costs
Delivered wood costs are the costs to harvest and transport timber to market. For this analysis, delivered wood cost
is comprised of administration and planning; road construction and maintenance; logging and processing, trucking,
and silviculture; camps costs; water tow; and stumpage. Delivered log costs for the FSJTSA were estimated using the
methods described in Appendix A and are listed in Table 2-7. On average, the estimated delivered wood cost within
the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 is approximately $57/m3 and $46/m3 respectively.
17
May 30, 2019
R-2
RANGES
Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
Table 2-7 Weighted-Average 2018 Delivered Wood Costs, FSJTSA and DCTSA/
TFL 48
Stand Type 2018 Delivered Wood Costs ($/m3)

FSJTSA
Deciduous 53.40
Coniferous 59.22
Mixedwood 56.21
All Types 57.17
DCTSA/TFL 48
Deciduous 42.20
Coniferous 46.79
Mixedwood 43.70
All Types 46.30
2.3.5 Economic CMM Land Base
Where the CMM land base represents timber that is ready to be harvested now or in the short-term, the Economic
CMM (ECMM) land base is intended to represent that portion of the CMM where estimated timber values (calculated
using values from Section 2.3.3) exceed delivered wood costs (Table 2-7). The ECMM land base within the FSJTSA
is an area of approximately 200,000 ha containing 73 million m3 of ECMM timber, accounting for approximately 17%
of the total THLB area and 30% of total THLB timber volume (Table 2-8). The CMM land base within DCTSA/TFL 48
is an area of approximately 540,000 ha containing 200 million m3 of CMM timber, accounting for approximately 44%
of the total THLB area and 60% of total THLB timber volume. Figure 2-10 and Figure 2-11 provide illustrations of the
FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 ECMM respectively.
18
May 30, 2019
R-2
RANGES
Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
Table 2-8 FSJTSA & DCTSA/TFL 48 THLB and ECMM Land Base
ECMM Land Base

Volume Area
Percent of THLB Percent of THLB
Stand Type m3 (%) Ha (%)
FSJTSA
Deciduous 9,938,329 10.2 17,821 5.0
Coniferous 48,685,061 56.1 141,450 25.1
Mixedwood 14,516,192 24.5 39,793 15.1
Total 73,139,582 30.0 199,063 16.8
DCTSA/TFL 48
Deciduous 24,311,269 28.3 4,995 1.6
Coniferous 154,183,505 75.7 438,597 58.2
Mixedwood 22,828,409 48.4 58,211 36.6
Total 201,323,182 59.8 540,803 44.4
19
May 30, 2019
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R-2
RANGES
Baseline Conditions
May 14, 2019
2.3.6 Wood Product Manufacturing
There are four mills operating in each the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 (Table 2-9). The Paper Excellence BTMP
deciduous pulp mill in Chetwynd is currently non-operational; however, processing could restart late 2018 (Stantec
2018; IFS 2018). In total, the FSJTSA has an estimated capacity of 492 million board feet of lumber, 660 million
square feet (3/8” basis) of oriented strand board (OSB), and 60,000 tonnes of wood pellets. The DCTSA/TFL 48 has
an estimated total capacity of 532 million board feet of lumber, 345 million square feet (3/8” basis) of OSB, and
88,000 tonnes of wood pellets.
Table 2-9 Mills Operating with the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48
Estimated Annual
Capacity
Mill
Number Mill Name Company Mill Location Value Units
FSJTSA
122 Fort St. John Sawmill Canfor Fort St. John 282 Million board feet
122 Fort St. John Pellet Canfor Fort St. John 60 Thousand tonnes
335 Taylor Pulp Mill (bleached Canfor Taylor 210 Million board feet
thermos-mechanical pulp
[BTMP] mill)
942 Peace Valley OSB Louisiana Pacific Fort St. John 660 Million square feet
Canada Ltd. (3/8” basis)
DCTSA/TFL 48
127 Chetwynd Sawmill Canfor Chetwynd 217 Million board feet
127 Chetwynd Pellet Canfor Chetwynd 88 Thousand tonnes
552 Chetwynd Forest Industries West Fraser Mills Ltd. Chetwynd 315 Million board feet
650 Louisiana Pacific Ltd. OSB Louisiana Pacific Dawson Creek 345 Million square feet
Plant Canada Ltd. (3/8” basis)
SOURCE:
BC FLNRORD
Inflation-adjusted values of select manufactured wood products in BC between 2015 and 2018 are provided in
Table 2-10. Between 2015 and 2018 the value of lumber increased 71%, the value of plywood (3/8” basis) 58%, OSB
(3/8” basis) 119%, and wood pellets 23%. For 2018, assuming an average industrial utilization of 85% 2, $580 million
in revenue is estimated to be generated by mills operating within the FSJTSA, $500 million for mills within
DCTSA/TFL 48.
2 2017-2018 average industrial utilization of wood product manufacturing facilities within Canada (Statistics
Canada 2018a)
22
May 30, 2019
R-2
RANGES
Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
May 14, 2019
Table 2-10 Inflation-Adjusted Value of Select Manufactured Wood Products in BC
Product / Year 2015 2016 2017 2018

Lumber ($000 bd ft) 478 529 699 819
Plywood ($000 sq ft), 3/8" basis 363 381 472 574
OSB ($000 sq ft), 3/8" basis 186 263 372 409
Pulp ($ tonne) 724 715 844 1,178
Wood Pellets ($000 kg) 149 154 172 183
SOURCE:
BC Forest Products 2018; Random Lengths 2018; Statistics Canada 2018b, 2018c
3.0 TACTICAL RESTORATION PLAN FOR THE SOUTH PEACE

NORTHERN CARIBOU RANGES
The South Peace Northern Caribou (SPNC) population of woodland caribou is comprised of seven herds: Graham,
Moberly, Scott, Burnt Pine, Kennedy Siding, Quintette and Narraway. The population of these herds is declining
rapidly, and as of 2016 consisted of 181 animals in the Graham herd and 219 animals in the other South Peace herds
(Golder 2018). Loss and fragmentation of habitat resulting from anthropogenic disturbance, leading to increase in
predator and prey species in early seral stage habitats, and wolf predation are identified as causative factors in the
decline in woodland caribou populations (Golder 2018).
FLNRORD is developing a Provincial Caribou Recovery Program, which includes goals of restoring habitat and
reversing adverse effects of anthropogenic disturbance. Such restoration will support the Province in meeting federal
caribou recovery efforts, including caribou habitat intactness targets (Golder 2018). There are two types of caribou
habitat restoration techniques: functional and ecological. Functional techniques focus on restoring predator-prey
relationships to historic levels, by limiting the effectiveness of predators’ use of linear disturbances. Ecological
restoration techniques focus on restoring an area to a pre-disturbed state, through either natural vegetation recovery
or site preparation and active planting (Golder 2018).
FLNRORD has] released the Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges to
facilitate engagement with First Nations and stakeholder in regard to prioritization of restoration areas and restoration
efforts (Golder 2018). The objectives of the Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan are to:
• “Identify the key principles or criteria to spatially define priority areas at, and within, the range scale
• Identify what type of habitat restoration activities should be undertaken
• Identify where restoration activities should be undertaken in each range to achieve the greatest return on
investment
• Identify how to sequence and coordinate restoration plans within the larger SPNC ranges” (Golder 2018)
23
May 30, 2019
R-2
RANGES
Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges
May 14, 2019
Golder (2018) delineated areas of linear disturbance as either “no treatment” or “treatment candidate.” “No
treatment” areas are comprised of disturbances that have active dispositions or protective notations, cutblocks or
forest-fired areas less than 40 years old, and disturbance areas that have limited potential for habitat restoration (e.g.,
alpine non-forested ecosystems). Linear feature areas that did not meet the “no treatment” criteria were considered
“treatment candidate” areas. Golder (2018) identified preliminary restoration polygons based on areas of linear
disturbance area overlap with high density caribou areas, in consideration of the following geospatial information:
telemetry, high-elevation winter and summer range, designated Ungulate Winter Range (UWR) and Wildlife Habitat
Area (WHA).
Table 3-1 summarizes preliminary restoration polgyons identified in Golder 2018. The initial restoration polygons
cover approximately 31,624 ha of the FSJTSA and 224,459 ha of DCTSA/TFL 48.
Table 3-1 Caribou Restoration Polygon Area from Preliminary Tactical Restoration
Plan
Restoration Zone by Herd Preliminary Restoration Polygons Area (Ha)

FSJTSA
Graham 31,624
Total 31,624
DCTSA/TFL 48
Burnt Pine
Graham 7,877
Kennedy Siding 8,943
Moberly 23,923
Narraway 42,377
Quintette - Zone 1 93,287
Scott 11,462
Total 224,459
SOURCE:
Golder 2018
As described, the Moratorium Scenario assumes that activities resulting in anthropogenic disturbance, including
resource extraction, and all tourism and recreation would be prohibited within the preliminary restoration polygon
areas. Overlap between proposed restoration polygons and the FSJTSA CMM and DCTSA/TFL 48 CMM is illustrated
in Figure 3-1 and Figure 3-2 respectively.
24
May 30, 2019
R-2
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Figure No.
3-1
Title
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Areas and Fort St.John Timber Supply Area
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May 30, 2019

R-2
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Figure No.
3-2
Title
Proposed Northern Caribou Habitat Recovery

Areas and Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area/
Tree Farm Licence 48 Current Mature
The recipient releases Stantec, its officers, employees, consultants and agents, from any and all claims arising in any way from the content or provision of the data. Merchantable Land Base
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Economic Impact Assessment

May 14, 2019
4.0 ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
The following sections present the methods and results of the economic impact assessment. Methods
Economic impacts in the form of employment and labour income and contributions to provincial GDP and government
revenues resulting from the implementation of northern caribou habitat recovery measures have been assessed for a
Moratorium Scenario. Economic impacts under the moratorium scenario are characterized in terms of changes from
the Base Case. The Base Case and Moratorium Scenario are defined as follows:
• Base Case - no additional restrictions on timber harvesting (inclusive of road building and support activities) not
already implemented within the FSJTSA and DCTSA
• Moratorium Scenario - no timber harvesting (inclusive of road building and support activities) within the
following northern caribou ranges: Graham, Moberly, Scott, Burnt Pine, Kennedy Siding, Quintette, and
Narraway.
Economic impacts for the forestry and logging sector and wood product manufacturing subsector were estimated
based on the following methods:
1. Volume of economically harvestable wood within the CMM land base estimated through GIS analysis, based on
stand-level information and the provincial Vegetation Resources Inventory (Appendix A).
2. Estimate the ECMM land base, defined as the portion of the THLB for which the value of delivered timber
exceeds the cost of delivered wood (Appendix A and Appendix B, Section B.1).
3. Estimate the Adjusted AAC, by assuming a reduction in AAC proportionate to the reduction in the CMM land
base and estimate the proportion of the adjusted AAC that could be economically utilized (Appendix A and
Appendix B, Section B.3).
4. Estimate the value of delivered wood under, net of stumpage
5. Using 2014 economic multipliers from Statistics Canada, derive notional employment, labour income, GDP,
and government revenue impacts from forestry and logging for the Moratorium Scenario. Adjust employment
estimates to correct for changes in the price of labour (Appendix B, Section B.4.1).
6. Estimate the annual revenue for wood products manufacturing, if all harvested wood is used in manufacturing
(i.e., no out of region shipment of logs).
7. Using 2014 economic multipliers from Statistics Canada, derive notional employment, labour income, GDP, and
government revenue impacts from wood product manufacturing for the Moratorium Scenario. Adjust
employment estimates to correct for changes in the price of labour (Appendix B, Section B.4.2).
4.1 ESTIMATE OF REDUCTIONS TO AAC, AND AAC UTILIZATION

4.1.1 Reductions to CMM and ECMM Land Base
Table 4-1 and Table 4-2 summarize reductions in the CMM and ECMM land base that would result from proposed
northern caribou habitat recovery measures. The overlap between proposed northern caribou habitat recovery
measures and the ECMM within the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL48 is illustrated in Table 4-1. Under the Moratorium
Scenario the total volume and area of the CMM would be reduced by 4.5% (8.7 million m3) in the FSJTSA and
29.7% (73.0 million m3) in the DCTSA/TFL48 compared to the Base Case. It is predicted that in the Moratorium
Scenario the ECMM would be reduced by 5.6% (54.1 million m3) in the FSJTSA, and 30.3% (61.0 million m3) in
DCTSA/TFL 48 compared to the Base Case (Table 4-2).
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Table 4-1 Adjusted CMM Land Base
CMM Land Base

Percent Percent
Volume Area Adjusted Adjusted (%) (%)
Stand Reduction Reduction Volume Area Change in Change
Scenario Type (m3) (ha) (m3) (ha) Volume in Area
FSJTSA
Base Case Deciduous 0 0 63,908,550 125,969 0.0 0.0
Coniferous 0 0 79,434,806 253,121 0.0 0.0
Mixedwood 0 0 49,150,213 122,803 0.0 0.0
Total 0 0 192,493,568 501,893 0.0 0.0
Moratorium Deciduous 305,814 774 63,602,736 125,195 0.5 0.6
Scenario
Coniferous 7,479,403 27,839 71,955,403 225,282 9.4 11.0
Mixedwood 919,656 3,012 48,230,557 119,791 1.9 2.5
Total 8,704,873 31,624 183,788,695 470,269 4.5 6.3
DCTSA/TFL 48
Coniferous 0 0 166,772,347 491,525 0.0 0.0
Mixedwood 0 0 32,544,324 83,488 0.0 0.0
Total 0 0 245,479,213 678,369 0.0 0.0
Moratorium Deciduous 2,559,954 3,972 43,602,588 99,384 5.5 3.8
Scenario
Coniferous 66,038,466 144,692 100,733,881 346,833 39.6 29.4
Mixedwood 4,374,847 11,158 28,169,477 72,330 13.4 13.4
Total 72,973,267 159,822 172,505,946 518,547 29.7 23.6
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Table 4-2 Adjusted ECMM Land Base
ECMM Land Base

Percent Percent
Volume Area Adjusted Adjusted (%) (%)
Stand Reduction Reduction Volume Area Change Change in
Scenario Type (m3) (ha) (m3) (ha) in Volume Area
FSJTSA
Coniferous 0 0 48,685,061 141,450 0.0 0.0
Mixedwood 0 0 14,516,192 39,793 0.0 0.0
Total 0 0 73,139,582 199,063 0.0 0.0
Scenario
Coniferous 3,781,686 11,512 44,903,375 129,938 7.8 8.1
Mixedwood 301,892 948 14,214,300 38,845 2.1 2.4
Total 4,110,115 12,517 68,502,772 186,549 5.6 6.3
DCTSA/TFL 48
Coniferous 0 0 154,183,505 438,597 0.0 0.0
Mixedwood 0 0 22,828,409 58,211 0.0 0.0
Total 0 0 201,323,182 540,803 0.0 0.0
Scenario
Coniferous 58,204,850 111,274 95,978,654 327,323 37.8 0.3
Mixedwood 2,574,492 6,738 20,253,917 51,473 11.3 0.1
Total 61,050,885 118,326 140,272,297 422,477 30.3 0.2
4.1.2 Adjusted AACs, Utilization of Adjusted AACs, and Value of Delivered

Wood
Under the Moratorium Scenario the current Base Case AAC within the FSJTSA is reduced 4.5% to 2 million m3
(Table 4-3). Accounting for reductions in the ECMM, as it is assumed that timber would be harvested if its value
exceeds its delivered cost and if there remains a sufficient supply of fiber, it is estimated that 98.9% (2 million m3) of
the adjusted AAC could be utilized. Compared to average baseline harvest volumes from 2015 through 2018, under
the Moratorium Scenario, no reduction in average baseline harvest volumes (1.86 million m3) is estimated.
In the DCTSA/TFL 48 base case, it is assumed that the AAC of TFL 48 has been reduced to 871,000 m3, resulting in
a combined AAC of 2.7 million m3. The Moratorium Scenario results in a 29.7% reduction in the Base Case AAC to
1.9 million m3. Accounting for reductions in the ECMM, it is estimated that 99.1% (1.9 million m3) of the adjusted AAC
could be utilized. This decrease results in a potential forestry and logging revenue reduction (based on delivered
wood costs) of $32.4 million from the Base Case (using values provided in Table 2-7).
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Table 4-3 Comparison of AAC between Base Case and Moratorium case in FSJTSA
and DCTSA/TFL 48
AAC Maximum Utilization of AAC

Percent (%) Change
Scenario Volume (m3) from Base Case Volume (m3)
FSJTSA
Base Case 2,115,000 0.0 2,115,000
Moratorium Scenario 2,019,359 -4.5 1,996,147
DCTSA/TFL 48
Base Case 2,731,000 0.0 2,731,000
Moratorium Scenario 1,919,159 -29.7 1,902,829
4.2 ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE FORESTRY AND LOGGING

SUBSECTOR
The following subsections summarize the results of the economic impact analysis completed for the estimated
utilization of adjusted AACs under the Moratorium Scenario and associated opportunity costs to deliver wood.
Results are compared to the Base Case to illustrate changes in foregone jobs, GDP, and government revenue within
the forestry and logging subsector. Results are presented in 2018 dollars.
4.2.1 Employment and Labour Income
Based on 2012 multipliers from the Statistics Canada’s Interprovincial Input-Output Model (SCIPIOM), in the Base
Case approximately 740 PYs of employment and $38.7 million in labour income are created through forestry and
logging in the FSJTSA (Table 4-3). Direct employment in logging and forestry accounts for an estimated for 380 PYs
of employment and $20 million of labour income in the FSJTSA. Within DCTSA/TFL 48, total employment in the Base
Case is estimated at 700 PYs with $37 million in labour income. Direct employment in logging and forestry accounts
for an estimated 360 PYs of employment and $19 million in labour income within DCTSA/TFL 48.
In comparison to baseline conditions presented in Section 2.0, direct employment estimates for the FSJTSA and
DCTSA/TFL48 exceed local employment estimates for the PRRD (North and South; Table 2-1). As such, it is
understood that a percentage of direct employment is satisfied by labour external to PRRD North and by transient
workers. Indirect and induced employment would include jobs within the PRRD as well as jobs in other parts of BC.
Implementation of proposed northern caribou protection measures would have a measurable effect on employment
within the PRRD. Within DCTSA/TFL 48 a 30.7 % (215 PY) reduction in employment and 30.8% ($11 million)
reduction in labour income is estimated under the Moratorium Scenario. No reduction in employment or labour
income is estimated for the FSJTSA in the Moratorium Scenario.
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Table 4-4 Economic Impacts - Employment and Labour Income
Year/Scenario Base Case Moratorium

FSJTSA
Employment (Person-years)
Direct 380 380
Indirect and Induced 360 360
Total 740 740
Labour income ($ millions)
Direct 20 20
Total 39 39
DCTSA/TFL 48
Employment (Person-years)
Direct 360 260
Total 700 500
Direct 19 13
Total 37 25
4.2.2 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues
In the Base Case, an estimated $83 million in provincial GDP created through forestry and logging in the FSJTSA of
which 44.1% ($37 million) is attributable to direct effects (Table 4-5). An estimated total of $7 million in provincial
government revenue and $7 million in federal government revenue is created in the FSJTSA in the Base Case.
Direct effects account for 40.0% ($3 million) of provincial government revenues and 40.6% ($3 million) of federal
government revenues.
Within DCTSA/TFL 48, an estimated $78 million in provincial GDP is created through forestry and logging, of which
44.1% ($35 million) in direct effects, is created in the Base Case. An estimated $6 million in provincial government
revenue, and $7 million in federal government revenue is estimated in the Base case.
Implementation of proposed northern caribou protection measures would have a measurable effect on GDP and
government revenues generated within the PRRD. Under the Moratorium Scenario, Within DCTSA/TFL 48, a 30.9%
reduction in GDP, 39.1% reduction in provincial government revenues, and a 36.4% reduction in federal government
revenues relative to the Base Case is estimated. No reduction in provincial GDP and Government Revenue is
estimated for the FSJTSA in the Moratorium Scenario.
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Table 4-5 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues
Base Case Moratorium

FSJTSA
GDP ($ millions)
Direct 37 37
Total 83 83
Provincial Tax Revenue ($ millions)
Direct 3 3
Total 7 7
Federal Tax Revenue ($ millions)
Direct 3 3
Total 7 7
DCTSA/TFL 48
GDP ($ millions)
Direct 35 24
Total 78 54
Direct 3 2
Total 7 4
Direct 3 2
Total 6 4
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4.3 ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE WOOD PRODUCT

MANUFACTURING SUBSECTOR
Within the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL48 harvested fibre is converted into wood products, such as dimensional lumber,
panel board, pulp, and wood pellets, therefore, the full opportunity cost of northern caribou habitat recovery measures
on the forestry sector would reflect not only foregone jobs, GDP, and government from forestry and logging, as
discussed in Section 4.3.3, but also those tied to downstream wood product manufacturing. The following
subsections summarize the results of the economic impact analysis completed for the estimated utilization of
adjusted AACs under the Moratorium Scenario. Results are compared to the Base Case to illustrate changes in
foregone jobs, GDP, and government revenue within the forestry and logging subsector. Results are presented in
2018 dollars.
4.3.1 Wood Product Manufacturing
Table 4-6 summarizes how wood product manufacturing in the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL48 could change due to the
implementation of northern caribou habitat recovery measures. Changes in the volume and value of manufactured
products is a result of reductions in the volume of economically merchantable timber harvested within each TSA.
In the FSJTSA Base Case, approximately 1,858,753 million m3 of harvested timber would be consumed, resulting in
approximately 1,282,539 m3 of lumber, OSB, pulp, and wood pellets products. This assumes an industrial utilization
rate of 85% and a conversion efficiency factor of 69%. Assuming 2018 prices (Table 2-10), the annual revenue from
wood product manufacturing in the FSJTSA would be an estimated $774 million.
In DCTSA/TFL 48 Base Case, approximately 2,289,584 million m3 of harvested timber would be consumed, resulting
in approximately 1,579,813 m3 of lumber, OSB, pulp, and wood pellets products. This assumes an industrial
utilization rate of 85% and a conversion efficiency factor of 69%. Assuming 2018 prices (Table 2-10), the annual
revenue from wood product manufacturing in DCTSA/TFL 48 would be an estimated $593. million.
Assuming that reduced harvesting volumes result in the same pro-rata reduction in lumber, OSB, pulp, and wood
pellet manufacturing, the implementation of caribou habitat recovery measures would result in an annual revenue
reduction of 13.7% in the DCTSA/TFL48in the Moratorium Scenario (Table 4-6). The economic impact from this
reduced revenue generation is estimated in the following sections. As sufficient volume of timber is available under
the Moratorium Scenario to manufacturing demand in the FSJTSA no change in annual revenues are estimated.
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Table 4-6 Forest Products Manufacturing Scenarios

FSJTA
Manufactured Forest Products Annual Data
Volume harvested (m3) 1,858,753 1,858,753
Industrial utilization factor 0.85 0.85
Conversion factor 0.69 0.69
Manufactured Products (m3) 1,282,539 1,282,539
Manufactured Forest Products Revenue ($ millions)
Lumber 231 231
OSB 270 270
Pulp 263 263
Wood pellets 11 11
Total 774 774
Percent (%) Reduction from Base Case N/A 0.0
DCTSA/TFL 48
Manufactured Forest Products Annual Data
Volume harvested (m3) 2,205,670 1,902,829
Industrial utilization factor 0.69 0.69
Conversion factor 0.85 0.85
Manufactured Products (m3) 1,521,913 1,312,952
Manufactured Forest Products Revenue ($ millions)
Lumber 436 376
OSB 141 122
Pulp - -
Wood pellets 16 14
Total 593 511
Percent (%) Reduction from Base Case N/A 13.7
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4.3.2 Employment and Labour Income
Based on 2012 multipliers from the Statistics Canada’s Interprovincial Input-Output Model (SCIPIOM), in the Base
Case of approximately 2,510 PYs of employment and $141 million in labour income are created through wood
product manufacturing in the FSJTSA (Table 4-7). Direct employment and labour income account for 43.0% (1080
PYs) and 43.1% ($61 million) of total effects, respectively. Within DCTSA/TFL 48, total employment in the Base Case
is estimated at 1,650PYs with $93 million in labour income. Direct employment and labour income account for 40.6%
(670PYs) and 40.5% ($38 million) of total effects, respectively.
Implementation of proposed caribou protection measures would have a measurable effect on employment within the
PRRD. Under the Moratorium Scenario, a 13.6% reduction in employment and labour income within the
DCTSA/TFL48 is estimated. Because manufacturing output and revenues remain constant between the Base Case
and Moratorium Scenario within the FSJTSA, employment and labour income remain constant between both
scenarios.
Table 4-7 Economic Impacts - Employment and Labour Income

FSJTSA
Employment (Person-Years)
Direct 1,080 1,080
Indirect and Induced 1,430 1,430
Total 2,510 2,510
Direct 61 61
Total 141 141
DCTSA/TFL 48
Employment (Person-Years)
Direct 670 575
Total 1,650 1425
Direct 38 32
Total 93 80
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4.3.3 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues
In the Base Case, an estimated $630 million in provincial GDP is created through wood product manufacturing in the
FSJTSA of which 38% ($240 million) is attributable to direct effects (Table 4-8). An estimated total of $41 million in
provincial government revenue and $29 million in federal government revenue is created in the FSJTSA in the Base
Case. Direct effects account for 31% ($13 million) of provincial government revenues and 45.1% ($13 million) of
federal government revenues.
Within DCTSA/TFL 48, an estimated $500 million in provincial GDP, 35% ($175 million) in direct effects, is created in
the Base Case. A total of $35 million in provincial government revenue, 22.8% ($8 million) in direct effects, is
estimated in the Base Case in DCTSA/TFL 48. Total federal government revenues are estimated at $21 million of
which an estimated 44.1% ($9 million) is direct effects.
Implementation of the proposed northern caribou protection measures would have a measurable effect on GDP and
government revenues generated within the PRRD. Under the Moratorium Scenario a 14.0% reduction in GDP,
20.9% reduction in provincial government revenues, and a 13.4% reduction in federal government revenues is
estimated within DCTSA/TFL 48. Because manufacturing output and revenues remain constant between the Base
Case and Moratorium Scenario within the FSJTSA, contributions to provincial GDP and provincial and federal
government revenues remain constant between both scenarios.
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Table 4-8 Contributions to Provincial GDP and Government Revenues
Base Case Moratorium

FSJTSA
GDP ($ millions)
Direct 240 240
Total 630 630
Direct 13 13
Total 41 41
Direct 13 13
Total 29 29
DCTSA/TFL 48
GDP ($ millions)
Direct 175 150
Total 500 430
Direct 8 8
Total 35 28
Direct 9 7
Total 21 18
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Conclusion
May 14, 2019
5.0 CONCLUSION
The forestry and logging sector and wood product manufacturing subsector provide substantial employment and
economic impacts (i.e., contribute to GDP and government revenues) to the communities within the PRRD. Together,
operations in FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL48 are estimated to contribute $1.1 billion in provincial GDP, 4,160 PYs of
employment, and $50 million in federal and $76 million in provincial government revenues in the Base Case. The
Base Case assumes current harvesting levels and AACs within the FSJTSA and DCTSA, and a reduced AAC of
871,000 m3 in TFL 48, of which 95% is utilized.
Under the Moratorium Scenario (recognizing that government mandated caribou protection measures for the South
Peace region have yet to be finalized), implementation of restoration polygons, assuming resource extraction is
prohibited within these areas, as identified in the Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern
Caribou Ranges (Golder 2018) would result in measurable reduction in employment and economic impacts within the
PRRD. It is estimated that the Moratorium Scenario would reduce the FSJTSA AAC by 4% to 2.0 million m3 while
the DCTSA/TFL48 AAC would be reduced by 29.7 % to 1.9 million m3 due to reductions in the CMM land base.
With the implementation of proposed caribou management measures no change in Base Case harvesting volumes
within the FSJTSA are estimated. Within DCTSA/TFL 48, reduced fiber availability is estimated to result in a
reduction in baseline harvesting volumes to 1.9 million m3. As no changes in baseline harvest volumes are estimated
under the Moratorium Scenario for the FSJTSA, implementation of proposed caribou management measures do not
result in a change in employment or economic impacts from the Base Case. Within DCTSA/TFL 48, implementation
of proposed caribou management measures results in a 14.0% reduction in provincial GDP contributions, a 13.6 %
reduction in employment, and a 13.4% and 20.9% reduction in federal and provincial tax revenue.
In total, changes in forestry and logging and wood product manufacturing represents a 6.2 % reduction in provincial
GDP contributions, a 5.4% reduction in employment, an 9.7% reduction in provincial tax revenues, and a 5.7%
reduction in federal tax revenues across the PRRD (approximated by economic centres within the FSJTSA and
DCTSA). Due to the location of existing mills within the DCTSA/TFL48 (i.e., largely within and near Chetwynd),
reductions in available timber, AACs, and harvesting and manufacturing output would have an adverse effect within
Chetwynd. Conversations with forestry companies in the region have suggested that proposed caribou management
measures could result in the closure of at least one mill in the region.
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References
May 14, 2019
6.0 REFERENCES
BC Coast Log Market Reports. 2018. Available from:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/timber-pricing/coast-timber-
pricing/coast-log-market-reports. Accessed: October 2018.
BC FLNRORD. 2012. Timber Tenures in British Columbia: Managing Public Forests in the Public Interest. Available
at: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/forestry/timber-
tenures/timber_tenures_brochure_2012.pdf. Accessed: September 2018
BC FLNRORD. 2015. Rationale for Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) Determination – Tree Farm License 48. Available at:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/forestry/stewardship/forest-
analysis-inventory/tsr-annual-allowable-cut/tree-farm-license/48tf15ra.pdf. Accessed: April 2019.
BC FLNRORD. 2018a. Timber Harvest Rights. Available at:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/forest-tenures/timber-harvesting-rights. Accessed:
September 2018.
BC FLNRORD. 2018c. Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations – Apportionment System – TSA
AAC, Apportionment and Commitments. Fort St. John TSA. Northeast Natural Resource Region. Available
tenures/apportionment/2018-2019/aptr011_fort_st_john.pdf. Accessed: October 2018.
BC FLNRORD. 2018d. Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations – Apportionment System – TSA
AAC, Apportionment and Commitments. Dawson Creek TSA. Northeast Natural Resource Region. Available
tenures/apportionment/2018-2019/aptr011_dawson_creek.pdf. Accessed: October 2018.
BC FLNRORD 2018e. Harvest Billing System. Available at: https://a100.gov.bc.ca/pub/hbs/. Accessed: October
2018.
BC FLNRORD 2018f. Major Primary Timber Processing Facilities in British Columbia – 2016. Available at:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/forestry/fibre-
mills/2016_mill_list_report_final5.pdf. Accessed: October 2018.
BC FLNRORD 2019. Tree Farm License Summary Report – Apportionment System. Available at:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/forestry/timber-
tenures/apportionment/2019-2020/aptr021_tree_farm_license_summary_report.pdf. Accessed: April 2019.
BC Forest Products. 2018. Weekly Prices- Forest Products. Available from:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/forest-industry-
economics/weekly-prices. Accessed: October 2018.
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References
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BC Interior Log Market Values. 2018. Available from:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/competitive-forest-industry/timber-pricing/interior-
timber-pricing/interior-log-market-reports. Accessed: October 2018.
BC Stats. 2018a. British Columbia Employment by Detailed Industry, Annual Averages. Available at:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Files/9cc67f6b-a827-4c2b-86ab-ceb97586c792/EmploymentbyIndustry.xls.
Accessed: October 2018
Destination BC. 2018. 2016 Value of Tourism Regional (forthcoming). Data request to Destination BC. Data provided
by Kailee Penner, Senior Researcher – Destination BC.
Golder. 2018. Preliminary Tactical Restoration Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges. Caribou Tactical
Restoration Plan. Submitted to Ministry of Forests, Land, Natural Resource Operations and Rural
Development.
IFS 2018. A Review of Hardwood Resources in North-Eastern British Columbia.
Layden, D. Province of British Columbia - Office of the Chief Forester. Victoria, British Columbia.
PBC. 2018a. Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations Region & District Contacts. Available at:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/managing-our-forest-resources/ministry-of-forests-
lands-and-natural-resource-operations-region-district-contacts. Accessed: September 2018.
PBC. 2018b. Fort St. John Timber Supply Area. Available at:
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/managing-our-forest-resources/timber-supply-review-
and-allowable-annual-cut/allowable-annual-cut-timber-supply-areas/fort-st-john-tsa. Accessed: September
2018
PBC. 2018c. Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area. Available at:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/managing-our-forest-resources/timber-supply-review-
and-allowable-annual-cut/allowable-annual-cut-timber-supply-areas/dawson-creek-tsa. Accessed:
September 2018.
PRRD. 2018a. Who we are – Regional District. Available at: https://prrd.bc.ca/who-we-are/regional-district/. Accessed
October 2018.
PRRD. 2018b. Who we are – Communities. Available at: https://prrd.bc.ca/who-we-are/communities/. Accessed

October 2018.
Random Lengths. 2018. Random Lengths Framing Lumber and Structural Panel Composite Prices, by month.
Available at: http://www.randomlengths.com/in-depth/monthly-composite-prices/. Accessed: October 2018.
Stantec. 2018. Economic Impact of Boreal Caribou Habitat Recovery Measures in the Northern Rockies Regional
Municipality. Prepared for the Northern Rockies Regional Municipality.
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Statistics Canada 2013a. 2011 National Household Survey. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 99-004-WXE. Ottawa.
Released September 11, 2013.
Statistics Canada 2017a. 2016 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2016001. Ottawa. Released
November 29, 2017.
Statistics Canada. 2018a. Table 16-10-0109-01 (formerly CANSIM 028-0002) Industrial capacity utilization rates, by
industry. Available at: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1610010901. Accessed:
October 2018.
Statistics Canada. 2018b. Table 980-004 Domestic Exports – Wood and Articles of Wood; Wood Charcoal. Available
at: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cimt-cicm/topNCountries-
pays?lang=eng&getSectionId()=9&dataTransformation=0&refYr=2018&refMonth=12&freq=12&countryId=0&
getUsaState()=0&provId=1&retrieve=Retrieve&country=null&tradeType=1&topNDefault=10&monthStr=null&
chapterId=44&arrayId=0&sectionLabel=&scaleValue=0&scaleQuantity=0&commodityId=440131. Accessed:
October 2018.
Statistics Canada. 2018c. Table 18-10-0034-01. Raw materials price index, monthly. Available at:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810003401. Accessed: October 2018.
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APPENDIX A
Estimating CMM and Delivered Wood Costs
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Appendix A Estimating CMM and Delivered Wood Costs

May 14, 2019
ESTIMATING CMM AND DELIVERED WOOD

COSTS
A.1 CURRENT MATURE MERCHANTABLE LAND BASE

The Current Mature Merchantable (CMM) land base represents the portion of a Timber Supply Area (TSA) that is
considered ready to be harvested now or in the short-term. This terminology was applied to TFL 48 for this analysis.
Area and volume of the CMM was estimated for the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 using the following available spatial
data layers:
• Fort St. John and Dawson Creek Timber Supply Areas (BC MFLNRORD 2018c)
• Harvested areas of BC - consolidated cutblocks (BC MFLNRORD 2018b)
• Timber Harvesting Land Base (acquired from the Province of British Columbia [Layden 2018])
• Vegetation Resource Inventory data (BC MFLNRORD 2018d)
Each TSA and TFL contains productive forest land known as the Crown Forest Land Base (CFLB); however, only a
subset of the CFLB is both available and feasible to harvest. The area that is estimated to be available and feasible to
harvest is termed the Timber Harvesting Land Base (THLB).
areas to old-growth stands. The CMM is intended to represent timber that is ready to be harvested now or in the
short-term and was developed through a net down reduction process of the THLB using the most recent Vegetation
Resource Inventory (VRI) spatial data. VRI data includes a wide variety of land cover and vegetation attributes for
each unique VRI stand, such as tree species composition, age and height data/class, estimated basal area as well as
gross and net volume information.
Specifically, the criteria used to develop the CMM included minimum ages by species, different utilization rates, and
minimum acceptable volume per hectare thresholds. In both TSAs the minimum tree harvest age is 80 years for pine
leading stands and 100 years for all other species. Within the FSJTSA, a 12.5 cm utilization level is used for aspen
and pine leading stands only and 17.5 cm utilization level for all other species. Within DCTSA/TFL 48, the 12.5 cm
utilization level is used for pine and deciduous leading stands and 17.5 cm utilization level for all other species.
Regarding minimum volume thresholds, in the FSJTSA, a minimum of 140 m3/ha is required for all stands regardless
of leading species, while in DCTSA/TFL 48 the minimum volume threshold is 120 m3/ha (BC MFLNRO 2011; BC
MFLNRO 2015).
Stands that have already been harvested were removed from the THLB by using the consolidated cut block spatial
layer (BC MFLNRORD 2018b). Additional features also removed from the THLB includes areas designated as non-
treed, low-productivity, alpine, parkland, wetland, water, shrubs, and herb dominated stands.
The resulting layer (i.e., with the above-described criteria applied) represents the CMM for this analysis.
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For summary purposes, CMM stands were classified into three broad stand types: pure coniferous (basal area
comprised of ≥ 75% coniferous trees), pure deciduous (basal area comprised of ≥ 75% deciduous trees), and mixed-
wood (any stand with < 75% of coniferous or deciduous total basal area). This categorization was undertaken with
the use of the BCLCS_Level_4 attribute in the VRI (BC FLNRO 2012).
A.2 DELIVERED WOOD COSTS

Delivered wood costs represent the costs associated with:
• Administration and planning

• Road construction and road management
• Logging and on-site processing
• Trucking
• Silviculture
• Camp costs
Methods for estimating delivered wood costs were based in part on descriptions of delivered wood costs in the IFS
report (2018) and the Interior Appraisal Manual (Province of British Columbia 2018). These six delivered wood costs
are presented below as a cost per m3 of timber harvested and were applied to each CMM stand by multiplying the
estimated cost per cubic meter by the total live stem volume in the VRI dataset. Total estimated delivered wood costs
per CMM stand is the sum of the six separate estimated costs. Cycle time (i.e., the time required to load a logging
truck, transport logs to a mill, unload logs, and return to the cut block) is also estimated as part of the delivered wood
costs relating to the trucking cost estimates.
A.2.1 Administration and planning
Administration and planning activities related to forest harvesting include office supervision and administration, timber
development, timber cruising, engineering fees, and planning environmental protection measures (such as wildlife
habitat and old growth management areas). Administrative and planning expenses will vary based on factors such as
degree of challenging terrain, number of stream crossings required to access the timber resources, and
environmental issues such as forest pests. Administrative and planning costs were assumed to be $4.70 per cubic
meter for use in this analysis (IFS 2018).
A.2.2 Road construction and road management
Road construction typically involves the construction of new road sections (involving timber clearing, subgrade
construction, and installing of bridges and drainage structures). These activities cost an average of $3 per cubic
meter (IFS 2018). Road management includes activities such as access management, erosion and dust control,
maintenance, grading, and deactivation. The province estimates this cost to be $1.87 per cubic meter in both the
FSJTSA and DCTSA (also applied to TFL 48); Province of British Columbia 2018). Road construction costs were
assumed to be $4.87 per cubic meter for use in this analysis.
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A.2.3 Logging and on-site processing
Logging and on-site processing assume conventional ground-based harvesting following even-aged cutting practices
(i.e., clear cutting). Activities include harvesting, site processing (i.e., bucking and delimbing), and preparing logs for
transport and scaling. Costs vary extensively depending on the topography, season, and characteristics of the timber
stand. However, a major cost factor is tree size (i.e., piece), as handling costs are higher for smaller trees compared
to larger trees. For this analysis the average tree size was estimated for each CMM stand by dividing the estimated
total live volume by the estimated number of live stems (i.e., VRI_Live_stems_per_ha attribute). Logging costs are
assumed to be $30 per cubic meter for stands with an average tree size of 0.2 per cubic meter per tree, $25 per cubic
meter for stands with an average tree size of 0.4 per cubic meter or less, $20 per cubic meter for stands with an
average tree size of less than 0.6 per cubic meter per tree, and $18 per cubic meter for stands with an average tree
size larger than 0.6 per cubic meter per tree (IFS 2018).
A.2.4 Trucking
Hauling logs from cutblocks to mills varies with cycle distances, road speeds, truck capacity, and hauling rates
(IFS 2018). For this analysis, the cost of trucking was estimated using cycle time, average truck capacity, and
average pay rate. Truck capacity differs for on-highway and off-highway trucks. Since the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL
48 each contain multiple highway routes, it was assumed that all trucks used in these areas are on-highway trucks.
On-highway truck capacity is estimated to be 39.4 cubic meters for aspen trees (deciduous) and 49.3 cubic meters
for softwoods (coniferous) (IFS 2018). Since both deciduous and coniferous species are harvested in the FSJTSA
and DCTSA/TFL 48, an average of $44.35 per cubic meter was used in this analysis. The average hauling rate for
logging trucks in interior BC is $148/ hour (IFS 2018).
The trucking costs were estimated for each CMM stand by multiplying the estimated cycle time (hours) by the
average pay rate ($148 per hour) and dividing the product by the average truck capacity ($44.35 cubic meters).
A.2.5 Cycle time
A spatial analysis using ArcGIS was carried out to estimate a generalized cycle time for each stand in the CMM.
Transportation routes of logging trucks in the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48 were assumed to include forest service
roads, industrial roads (as defined by the Forest Act), and highways. To estimate cycle time, a straight route was first
drawn from the geographical center of each stand to the nearest main road or highway; the time spent travelling on
this first route was calculated using an assumed speed of 30 km/h. This low speed was used to account for lower
accuracy associated with this first step because the actual transportation route would not follow a straight line. The
second segment of the estimate measured travel distance along the main road and/or highway network; the time
spent travelling on this second segment was calculated using as assumed speed of 90 km/h. The transportation route
from each stand was calculated to the nearest processing town (i.e., Fort St. John, Dawson Creek, and Chetwynd)
within the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48. The estimated cycle time was calculated as the sum of the two travel times
and an additional one hour to account for the time required to load and un-load the trucks.
Although there are operating mills in Mackenzie, BC, Mackenzie was not included as a ‘nearest’ processing point in
the analysis because it falls outside of the areas of interest.
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Timber processing facilities in Fort St. John, Dawson Creek, and Chetwynd are as follows:
• Fort St. John

− Canfor. sawmill
− Canfor pellet mill
− Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. oriented strand-board plant
• Dawson Creek
− Louisiana-Pacific Canada Ltd. oriented strand-board plant
• Chetwynd
− Paper Excellence’s pulp and paper mill
− Canfor sawmill
− Canfor Energy North Limited Partnership pellet mill
− West Fraser Mills Ltd. sawmill
− West Fraser Mills Ltd. bioenergy plant
A.2.6 Silviculture
Silviculture is typically required to return a harvested area to a free-growing state. Activities such as reforestation
planning, seedlings, and tree planting are considered ‘basic’ silviculture costs. Silviculture costs will be higher for
stands in steep terrain and wet sites (IFS 2018). Basic silviculture cost estimates are available by biogeoclimatic
subzone (Province of British Columbia 2018). For the silviculture cost determination, we used the silviculture cost per
hectare for the biogeoclimatic subzone variants (Biogeoclimatic Units) found within the FSJTSA and DCTSA/TFL 48
provided by the Timber Pricing Branch Interior Appraisal Manual (Province of British Columbia 2018). We then used
the average volume per hectare (m3/ha) within each Biogeoclimatic Unit and divided the silviculture cost per hectare
by this value to determine an average silviculture cost ($/m3) by Biogeoclimatic Unit (Table A-1).
Silvicultural costs among Biogeoclimatic units range from $3.18/m3 to $7.60/m3.
Table A-1 Average Silviculture Cost per Biogeoclimatic Unit ($/m3)
Biogeoclimatic Silviculture Cost per Average volume per Average Silviculture Cost By
Unit Hectare ($/ha) hectare (m3/ha) Biogeoclimatic Unit ($/m3)
BWBSmk $1,115 350 m3/ha $3.18/m3
BWBSmw $1,369 390 m3/ha $3.51/m3
BWBSwk1 $1,151 287 m3/ha $3.72/m3
BWBSwk2 $1,151 302 m3/ha $3.81/m3
BWBSwk3 $1,151 284 m3/ha $4.05/m3
ESSFmv2 $953 261 m3/ha $3.66/m3
ESSFmv4 $862 227 m3/ha $3.80/m3
ESSFwc3 $1,558 205 m3/ha $7.60/m3
ESSFwk2 $1,231 238 m3/ha $5.18/m3
SBSwk2 $1,128 272 m3/ha $4.15/m3
SWBmk $1,229 231 m3/ha $5.31/m3
SWBmks $1,229 191 m3/ha $6.45/m3
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Silvicultural costs by Biogeoclimatic Unit range from $3.18/m3 to $7.60/m3.
A.2.7 Camp costs
Work camps are used in parts of interior BC to provide workers with accommodation and meals sites (Province of
British Columbia 2018). Camps must include permanent or semi-permanent buildings, include a cookhouse or a
bunkhouse, have full time staff, and be located outside of municipalities and communities (Province of British
Columbia, 2018). The estimate operating cost for a remote work camp is $3.5 per cubic meter (IFS 2018; Province of
British Columbia 2018) and this estimate was applied to CMM stands with a cycle time that is greater or equal to 6
hours.
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A.3 REFERENCES
British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range and Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development (BC
FLNRORD). 2018a. Fort St. John Timber Supply Area: Rationale for Allowable Annual Cut (AAC)
Determination. Available at: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-
industry/forestry/stewardship/forest-analysis-inventory/tsr-annual-allowable-
cut/ft_st_john_tsa_rationale_2018.pdf
BC MFLNRORD. 2018b. Harvested Areas of BC (Consolidated Cutblocks). Available at:

https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/harvested-areas-of-bc-consolidated-cutblocks- Accessed:
September 2018
BC MFLNRORD. 2018c. Timber Supply Area. Available at: https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/fadm-

timber-supply-area-tsa Accessed: September 2018
BC MFLNRORD. 2018d. Vegetation Resources Inventory – Forest Vegetation Composite Polygons and Rank 1
Layer. Available at: https://catalogue.data.gov.bc.ca/dataset/vri-forest-vegetation-composite-
polygons-and-rank-1-layer Accessed: July 2018
British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range and Natural Resource Operations (BC FLNRO). 2011. Dawson Creek
Timber Supply Area Timber Supply Review Data Package. Available at:
http://data.nrs.gov.bc.ca/TSR_Historical/TSA/Dawson_Creek_41/TSR_2011/Data_Package_201
1/41ts11dp.pdf
BC FLNRO. 2014. Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area: Rationale for Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) Determination.
Available at: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-
industry/forestry/stewardship/forest-analysis-inventory/tsr-annual-allowable-
cut/dawson_creek_tsa_rationale.pdf
BC FLNRO. 2015. Fort St. John Timber Supply Area Timber Supply Review Data Package. Available at:
http://data.nrs.gov.bc.ca/TSR_Historical/TSA/Fort_St_John_40/TSR_2015/Data_Package_2015/
40tsdp15.pdf
BC FLNRO. 2012. Vegetation Inventory Data Dictionary (Version 4.0) – Draft. Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch.
Available at: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-
industry/forestry/stewardship/forest-analysis-inventory/data-
management/standards/vegcomp_poly_rank1_data_dictionary_draft40.pdf
Industrial Forest Service Ltd. (IFS). 2018. A Review of Hardwood Resources in North-eastern British Columbia.
Layden, D. Province of British Columbia - Office of the Chief Forester. Victoria, British Columbia.
Province of British Columbia. 2018. Interior Appraisal Manual. Available at:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/forestry/timber-
pricing/interior-timber-pricing/interior-appraisal-manual/2017_iam_master_2.pdf
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APPENDIX B
Economic Impact Assessment Methods
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Appendix B Economic Impact Assessment Methods

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ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODS
B.1 ECONOMIC CMM

The ECMM is defined as the portion of the THLB that would support forestry development, and for which the value of
delivered timber is estimated to exceed the cost of delivered wood. To estimate the ECMM CMM stands were
assigned a delivered value (in 2018 dollars) per cubic metre by applying average Interior Log Market species prices
based on the stands’ leading species. Where stand values exceeded the delivered wood costs, these timber volumes
were classified as comprising the ECMM.
B.2 OVERLAP BETWEEN CMM AND ECMM LAND BASES AND

PROPOSED CARIBOU RECOVERY AREAS
To estimate the area of the CMM and ECMM land bases that are overlapped by proposed boreal caribou habitat
recovery measures, geospatial files containing the boundaries of northern caribou range areas were overlaid on the
files containing the CMM and ECMM land bases. Range areas were digitized from the report “Tactical Restoration
Plan for the South Peace Northern Caribou Ranges” (Golder 2018).
B.3 ADJUSTED ACC

Applying harvesting scenarios described in Section 4.1 to the CMM land base, and assuming the AAC is evenly
distributed across the CMM (and therefore applying a CMM to AAC conversion factor of 0.0110 for the FSJTSA and
0.0111 for DCTSA/TFL 48 [calculated by dividing the current AAC by the total volume of the CMM]).
B.4 ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT

B.4.1 Forestry and Logging Subsector
Economic impacts by harvesting scenario were calculated at the provincial level by categorizing estimated
opportunity costs of delivering utilized volumes of adjusted AACs by North American Industry Classification and
Statistics Canada Input-Output Industry Code. Categorized costs were applied against 2014 input/output multipliers
taken from Statistics Canada’s Interprovincial Input-Output Model (SCIPIOM; Statistics Canada 2018b). This
modelling resulted in estimates of direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts (i.e., employment, labour income,
GDP, and government revenue).
Employment and employment income were adjusted down by a factor of 1.33 to account for the differential in raw log
prices between 2012 (year that multipliers were based on) and 2018, compared to the average rate of inflation.
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Appendix B Economic Impact Assessment Methods

May 14, 2019
The SCIPIOM tax multipliers are output based, and include consumption taxes, such as GST, PST, and fuel taxes,
but not income taxes. Federal and provincial taxes, in addition to those modelled through application of Statistics
Canada input/output multipliers, were estimated as follows:
• Corporate income taxes were estimated based on a function of net operating surplus to gross operating surplus
(Canadian corporations) from CANSIM 384-0037 and SCIPIOM multipliers and applied against nominal
provincial corporate tax rates. Actual corporate tax expenses were not used.
• Personal income taxes were estimated based on a function of employment income and provincial individual tax
rates.
The following stumpage rates were used to calculate provincial stumpage income (IFS 2018):
• Deciduous - average rate of $0.61

• Coniferous - average rate of $5.81
• Mixedwood - average rate of $4.15
B.4.2 Wood Product Manufacturing Subsector
Economic impacts on downstream timber processing were estimated using similar methods as those used to
estimate economic impact on forestry and logging operations. Key differences in the methods used to estimate
economic impacts on the wood product manufacturing subsector are summarized below.
Input data were based on revenue data and was calculated as the value of manufactured wood products from within
the FSJTSA and DCTSA. It includes harvested timber under the current AAC as well as that under scenario-adjusted
volume utilized AACs. The analysis assumes 85% utilization of production facilities (in the Base Case), assuming the
following production capacities:
• Saw mill – 181,700 m3/year

• Veneer and plywood plant – 159,282 m3/year
• OSB plant - 566,337 m3/year
• Total: 907,319 m3/year
It was assumed that the average conversion efficiency between logs and manufactured products is 69%.
For caribou protection scenarios, it was assumed that wood products manufacturing would be reduced on a pro-rata
basis based on percent reduction in fibre availability.
Employment and employment income was adjusted down by a factor of 2.71 within the FSJTSA and 3.39 within the
DCTSA/TFL48to account for the differential in wood products prices between 2012 (year that multipliers were based
on) and 2018, compared to the average rate of inflation.
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May 10, 2019

Peace River Regional District

Stantec Consulting Ltd.

May 30, 2019

Stephen Roberts, B.Comm., MREM

Frank Bohlken, B.Sc., MRM

Marie-Eve Clayton, P.Eng., MBA

May 30, 2019

GLOSSARY ............................................................................................................................. VII

1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 1

2.0 BASELINE CONDITIONS .............................................................................................. 1

3.0 TACTICAL RESTORATION PLAN FOR THE SOUTH PEACE NORTHERN

4.0 ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT ...........................................................................27

5.0 CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................................38

6.0 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................39

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May 30, 2019

ESTIMATING CMM AND DELIVERED WOOD COSTS ............................ A.1

ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODS ..................................... B.1

May 30, 2019

Wood Products Manufacturing

Wood Products Manufacturing

AAC Allowable Annual Cuts

BCTS British Columbia Timber Sales

BTMP Bleached Thermos-Mechanical Pulp

Canfor Canadian Forest Product Ltd

CMM Current Mature Merchantable

DCTSA Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area

ECMM Economic Current Mature Merchantable

FSJTSA Fort St. John Timber Supply Area

GDP Gross Domestic Product

IFS Industrial Forest Services Ltd.

FLNRORD Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resources Operations and Rural

NRRD Northern Rockies Regional District

NRRDCD NRRD Census Division

NRRM Northern Rockies Regional Municipality

OSB Oriented Strand Board

RRA Resource Review Areas

SCIPIOM Statistics Canada Interprovincial Input-Output Model

TFL Tree Farm License

THLB Timber Harvesting Land Base

TSA Timber Supply Area

TSL Timber Sale License

2.0 BASELINE CONDITIONS

2.1 PRRD DEMOGRAPHICS AND LABOUR FORCE

Percent Change (2011-2016)

SOURCE: Statistics Canada 2017a

Figure 2-1 Employment by Industry, PRRD (2011 & 2016)

Table 2-1 Local Resident Employment (Persons), by Sector and Subsector

Forestry and Logging Sector Wood Product Manufacturing Subsector

Table 2-2 Annual Average Employment Income, by Sector and Subsector

Forestry and Logging Sector Wood Product Manufacturing Subsector

2.2 MANAGEMENT OF TIMBER RESOURCES IN BC

Table 2-3 Current FSJTSA, DCTSA, and TFL 48 Apportionments

Form of Agreement Volume (m3) Percent of AAC (%)

Table 2-4 Current FSJTSA and DCTSA Commitments

ÝÝ ÝÝ SuÝsÝtu ÝÝ ÝÝ Ýsi ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ Fort St ÝÝ ÝÝ

ÝBa b Pouce Coupe

ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ ÝÝ Pin iver Ý"Ý ÝÝ

D a wÝÝs oÝÝ n ÝÝC r e e kÝÝ ÝÝ

Houston Burns Park Her

Lake Ý ÝÝ ÝÝParkÝÝ ÝÝLake Lake

SK Timber Supply Area