3/29/2019 Epidemiology: Definitions of Terms

Descriptive Epidemiology: Rates, Ratios, etc.

1. Core Knowledge:

Measures of Disease Occurrence or Frequency

These involve rates, ratios or proportions:

RATES. A
rate is a
measure of the
frequency with
which an event
occurs in a
defined
population in a
defined
time (e.g.,
number of
deaths per
hundred
thousand
Canadians in
one year). It
has a time
dimension,
whereas a
PROPORTION
(e.g., number
of Canadians
with cancer
divided by the
total
population)
does not.

RATIOS. The
value obtained
by dividing one
quantity by
another: the
male to female
ratio in your
class. A ratio
often
compares two
rates (the 'rate
ratio'), for
example
comparing
death rates for
women and
men at a given
age.

The important
difference
between a rate
and a ratio is
that for a rate,
the numerator
is included in
the
denominator
(e.g., number

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of new cases
of a disease
divided by the
total
population). In
a ratio, the
numerator and
denominator
are usually
separate and
distinct
quantities,
neither being
included in the
other (e.g., the
ratio of males
to females in
the class).

INCIDENCE. Incidence = Number of new cases in a fixed time period / Number of people at risk. Usually the
period of study is chosen to be one year, in which case we speak of the annual incidence. This gives a proportion,
ranging from 0 to 1, that is useful in communicating the idea of risk: what is the probability that my patient will get
this disease within the time-frame? Note that you may also see the term CUMULATIVE INCIDENCE to represent
the incidence proportion.

There are a couple of practical difficulties in calculating the incidence proportion that lead to another way to present
incidence. First, everyone being studied has to be followed for the complete year, but unfortunately, some may die
from some other cause or be lost to follow-up which makes the resulting calculation uncertain (can you be sure
they would not have got the disease if they had lived?) Second, many diseases can occur more than once and we
have to decide how to handle recurrences. If you include them, the incidence proportion could exceed 1.0, which
feels uncomfortable. If you accept only first diagnoses, you may underestimate the true burden of disease.
Therefore, an alternative is to express incidence as a rate: number of cases per time of observation, typically the
number of cases per person-year of observation. Incidence rates are equivalent to recording speed in kms per
hour and, like speed, the incidence rate gives an instantaneous reading of the frequency with which the disease
will occur, or the expected time-delay until the next case. You may also see the term HAZARD RATE.

SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND LIFE TABLES. The calculation of an incidence rate assumes that incidence remains
constant during the period of study. But if a long period of study is used, the risk of dying may change over time.
Here, it becomes necessary to calculate incidence rates over shorter periods of time (during which they are
relatively constant) and then aggregating them. This is the purpose of survival analysis and the calculations are
presented in the form of a life table. A life table typically shows the probability of dying across different age
groups. From the incidence proportions the table shows the survival probability for each age-group, and in a final
column, the cumulative survival probability across age groups; this can be graphed. Where a study compares
survival following an experimental therapy, survival analysis can illustrate the pattern of prognosis over time in the
experimental and control groups and statistical methods such as the Cox Proportional Hazards model can be used
to calculate the significance of the effect of the intervention (or of any other influence).

PREVALENCE. "How many people actually have the disease at any point in time?" Prevalence = Number of
people with the disease at a given time / Number of people at risk. It is thus a proportion, rather than a rate,
although you may sometimes see it called a "rate." Prevalence provides a good way to indicate the burden of
disease in a population. It is influenced by the incidence and by the duration of the condition: under most
circumstances, prevalence = incidence × disease duration.

MORTALITY RATE. The number of deaths per thousand population per year: in effect, the incidence of death in a
population. It can refer to all causes of death, or can be a cause-specific mortality rate. In comparing mortality rates
in different populations, Standardization is often used to correct for demographic differences between the
populations.

CASE FATALITY RATE. The proportion of people with a specified condition who die within a specified time. The
time frame is typically the period during which the patient is sick from the disease. This works for an infectious
disease but can be problematic for a chronic disease like a cancer that may remit for a period and then prove fatal
after a recurrence. In such instances we tend to speak of mortality or survival rates rather than case fatality.

ATTACK RATE The attack rate, or case rate, refers to the cumulative incidence of infection over a period of time.
This is typically used during an epidemic. The time period may not be indicated, but would typically refer to the

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period of the outbreak: "During the influenza outbreak the attack rate was 12%".

COMPARING RATES. A common reason for recording these various types of rates is to identify factors that are
associated with a disease. To measure the association between a factor and a disease, it is common to compare
rates of the disease among people exposed to the factor and other people not exposed. This can be done either
as a relative statistic (e.g., relative risk), or in an absolute manner (e.g., rate difference)

RELATIVE RISK The ratio of the risk of disease (or death) among people who are exposed to the risk factor, to
the risk among people who are unexposed. This is synonymous with risk ratio. Alternatively, relative risk is
defined as the ratio of the cumulative incidence rate among those exposed, to the rate among those not exposed.
To estimate a relative risk, you need a cohort study, from which incidence can be calculated.
An RR of 1.0 means that the two incidence rates are equal so the factor has no effect. An RR of 2 would indicate
that the exposed people were twice as likely to get the disease; an RR of 0.5 means they were half as likely, so the
factor protected them from the disease.

ODDS RATIO. The term "odds" is defined differently according to the situation under discussion, but it is the ratio
of the probability of occurrence of an event to that of non-occurrence. If 60 smokers develop a cough and 40 do
not, the odds of developing the cough are 60:40 (or 1.5). [Note that the probability of developing a cough is
60/100, or 0.6].

The odds ratio expresses the association between a risk factor and a disease by comparing the likelihood of
disease under two circumstances, such as the risk of a cough among smokers compared to non-smokers. The
ratio of the two odds is closely related to the concept of relative risk, but the very useful feature is that the odds
ratio can be calculated from a case-control study, and does not require knowing incidence rates. The odds ratio is
calculated as:

Exposed Not exposed

Got the disease a b
Did not get the disease c d
Odds Ratio = ad / bc

RATE DIFFERENCE. (Incidence rate of disease among those exposed) - (incidence among those not exposed).
This is useful in showing the excess morbidity due to the exposure (the "Attributable risk"), which, in turn, can be
used to indicate the health benefit of removing the exposure.

Links to: Standardization of rates

Updated March 12, 2019

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