MATH S350 Applied probability Models for Decision Making

Assignment 1 (covering Book 1 & 2) Due date: 10 Nov 2018

MATH S350 TMA 01

Question 1 – 14 marks

There are four assistants on duty in a sandwich bar near where I work. Observation over many
months suggests that the number of assistants busy at any one time may be reasonably
modelled as a discrete random variable X with the probability distribution given below.

x 1 2 3 4
P(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3

(a) Calculate the c.d.f. F(x) = P(X  x) at the points x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and display these values
in a table. [4]

(b) Find the mean and variance of the number of assistants busy at any time. (Use
Formula (2.3) of Unit 1 to find the mean in this part of the question.) [6]

(c) Use Formula (2.4) of Unit 1 to find the mean number of assistants busy at any time. [4]

Question 2 – 10 marks

On Saturday mornings, customers join the queue at a supermarket checkout according to a

Poisson process at an average rate of 15 per hour. Experience has shown that 25% of
customers will pay by cheque, 20% will pay cash and the rest will pay using a credit card.

(a) Find the probability that during a ten-minute period at least two customers join the
queue. [4]

(b) What is the average time between the arrival of customers paying by cheque? [3]

(c) Eight customers arrived between 11 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. on a Saturday morning. [3]
Question 3 – 10 marks

The locations of wild flowers in a meadow are recorded and the numbers in each of 20
contiguous quadrats are counted. The data are as follows.

10 3 9 2 5

11 7 1 10 3

11 10 7 6 8

4 2 5 8 12

(a) By applying a suitable test at 5% level of significance on these data, investigate

whether the flowers could reasonably be supposed to be randomly distributed in the
meadow. If your test suggests that this is not the case, say what sort of pattern you
think they might follow. [7]

(b) Briefly comment on the suitability of the recommended test in (a). [3]

Question 4 – 10 marks

It is noticed that a local sandwich bar always takes at least two minutes to serve a customer
and it can take much longer to fulfil an unusual order. The time in minutes taken to serve a
customer may be modelled by a continuous random variable T with probability density
function

(a) Show that the c.d.f. of the random variable T is given by

32
F (t )  1  , t  2. [4]
t5

(b) According to the model, what proportion of customers takes more than four minutes
to serve? What is the probability that it takes between 5 and 10 minutes to serve a
customer? [6]
Question 5 – 26 marks

The arrival of cars to buy fuel at a small all-night garage between midnight and 5 am on a
weekday may be reasonably modelled as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with rate

3
 (t )  ,
100  3t

where t is the time in hours after midnight.

(a) Show that the expected number of cars arriving by t hours after midnight is
 (t )  log(1  0.4t ) . [4]

(b) Find the probability that exactly two cars arrive between midnight and 3 am. [4]

(c) Find the probability that at most one car arrives between 3 am and 4 am. [6]

(d) Show that t1, t2, , the simulated times after midnight at which cars arrive, may be
2t j  5u
obtained from the recurrence relation t j 1  , where u is a random
2(1  u )
observation from the uniform distribution U(0,1), and t0 is taken to be 0. [6]

(e) Simulate the arrival times of cars between midnight and 5 am, using random numbers
from the Row 27 of the table on page 42 of Neave (beginning 0.25278, 0.30989, ).
State how many cars arrive between midnight and 5 am, and give the times at which
they arrive to the nearest minute. [6]

Question 6 – 30 marks

(a) The positions of palm trees on a large island may be modelled by a two-dimensional
Poisson process with density λ = 30 per square kilometre. A rectangular region of the
island 200 metres long by 350 metres wide is marked out for detailed study.

(i) What is the probability distribution of the number of palm trees in this region? [3]

(ii) Simulate the number of palm trees in this region using the number u = 0.48237,
which is a random observation from the uniform distribution U(0,1). [4]

(iii) Explain briefly (in one or two sentences) how you would simulate the
positions of the palm trees in this region.

Use the method you have just described and groups of five digits from the
thirtieth row of the table of random digits on page 42 of Neave (beginning
28396, 63296,... ) to simulate the positions of the palm trees in the region.
Calculate the coordinates of the palm trees to the nearest metre.

Plot the positions of the palm trees on a sketch of the region. (No graph paper
or separate pieces of paper are required for this.) [6]
(b) In a study of the disposition of palm trees on a neighbouring island, ten R-distances
(point-to-nearest-object distances) and ten S-distances (object-to-nearest-object
distances) were obtained. These measurements in kilometres are given below.
R-distances 0.24 0.21 0.15 0.09 0.17 0.06 0.15 0.27 0.19 0.18
S-distances 0.24 0.34 0.35 0.25 0.30 0.18 0.31 0.26 0.30 0.33
Use these data to investigate whether the palm trees can be reasonably supposed to
be randomly located on the island. Use a 5% significance level and state clearly the
critical region of your test.

If your investigation suggests that the palm trees are not randomly located, then say
how you think they are located, giving a reason for your answer. [8]

(c) Another island is divided into 21 equal-sized quadrats and the number of palm trees in
each quadrat is counted. The results are given below.

15 11 30 16 20 16 18
25 18 21 23 9 11 9
16 19 10 14 12 22 14

Commenting on the suitability of whatever test you adopt, use these data to
investigate whether the palm trees could reasonably be supposed to be randomly
located on the island. Use a 5% significance level and state clearly the critical region of
your test.

If your analysis suggests that the palm trees are not randomly located, then say how
you think they are located, giving a reason for your answer. [9]

END of Assignment 1