DB - Chemical Databook

Chemical Databook
Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Europe Industry Date
Chemicals
Chemical Databook 23 August 2017
Bulk Industry Update
What goes up doesn't always have to

come down immediately
Tim Jones
Summary: The "cyclical" margin recovery story has further to run
Research Analyst
The sector's cyclical earning base has recovered in the past 12-18m but our
+44-20-754-76763
view remains that for many businesses there is a further step-up possible in
the mid-term. Short-term Q3s appear to be progressing well as demand trends Martin Dunwoodie, CFA
remain supportive and capacity generally restrained. Those "fearing" imminent
Research Analyst
cyclical collapse may have to wait (again). While 2018 could be marginally
+44-20-754-72852
more "volatile" this does not mean a collapse is imminent (as consensus is
predicting) as underlying tight supply/demand balances appear underpinned. Virginie Boucher-Ferte
With few capacities planned 2019+ a longer-term super-cycle is possible. Top Research Analyst
picks: Arkema, BASF, JMAT, Lanxess, Linde, Symrise. +44-20-754-57940
Q3s - demand trends good so far Top picks

The consistent message from companies through Q2 reporting has been of a Arkema (AKE.PA),EUR94.00 Buy
similarly robust start to Q3 (as seen in Q2 and Q1). Recent commentary from Lanxess (LXSG.DE),EUR62.46 Buy
consultants suggest that the European summer slowdown has only been modest Johnson Matthey Plc Buy
and that Asian demand is improved relative to Q2 due to a cessation of the (JMAT.L),GBP2,765.00
modest de-stock in Q2. In the US demand trends remain generally reasonable. In Linde (LING.DE),EUR163.50 Buy
downstream specialties pricing/raw materials is key given shortfalls seen in Q2; Symrise (SY1G.DE),EUR60.98 Buy
we remain of the view that margins for most will improve due to the normal time- BASF (BASFn.DE),EUR80.44 Buy
Source: Deutsche Bank
lag in passing on higher input costs (albeit full pass-through will take longer).
Cyclical margins are still in a supply-constrained recovery mode

The sector's cyclical earning base has recovered strongly from the 2013-2015 Sector view, valuation, risks and top picks
lows albeit the common theme from consensus throughout the past 12-18m has We continue to see this as an attractive
sector driven by three factors; i) supply/
been to "call the top" each quarter. Corporate conservatism has supported this demand improvement due to capacity
(the same is true for recent Q2s). Our view remains that supply risk is limited in constraint, ii) M&A, and iii) self-help (R&D,
many chains (due to structural low capex from the industry in the past 3-4 years) cost efficiency). Top picks: Arkema, BASF,
JMAT, Lanxess, Linde and Symrise. We
and so unless we see a demand shock we see little risk of cyclical derailment
value sector using DCF/SOTP. Risks: FX,
in the coming 12-18m. Looking longer-term with corporate capex low, industry- GDP, oil.
wide additions beyond 2019 look anaemic - a super-cycle is possible.
Consensus too bearish for 2018 (and was too bearish in the last cycle)
Consensus is forecasting EBITDA declines of >20% for some of the more cyclical
businesses. We suggest this may not be the case if demand trends are sustained
and supply remains limited. Through the last bull chemical market (03-08)
consensus consistently forecast cyclical profit declines on a 12m view supported
by "consultant" views of mass Middle Eastern expansion. With most of these
significantly delayed or cancelled the cycle strength persisted through to 2008.
Deutsche Bank AG/London

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its researchDistributed on: Thus,
reports. 23/08/2017 19:05:56
investors GMT
should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider
this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.
0bed7b6cf11c
23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Table Of Contents
Vols, price & EPS trends .................................................. 3

Consensus EPS Changes over past 12 months .............................................. 4
Stock performance: Europe ............................................. 6

Stock performance: US .................................................... 7
Stock performance: Asia .................................................. 8
Sub-sector comparison .................................................... 9
Industrial gases data ...................................................... 10
Agrochemicals update ................................................... 11
Petrochemicals update ................................................... 13
Inorganic pricing ............................................................ 19
Survey indicators ............................................................ 21
Macro indicators ............................................................ 22
Valuation data ................................................................ 24
Seasonal share price performance ................................. 26
Global sector valuation ................................................... 28
Historical P/E and EV/EBITDA valuations (absolute) ....... 30
Reporting dates & events ............................................... 43
Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Vols, price & EPS trends

GDP growth slightly up in 2017 (vs. 2016). We expect global GDP growth rate
to accelerate in 2017 after bottoming in 2016 to its slowest pace post-crisis,
driven by a modest pick-up in the US, and a rebound in EMEA and Latin America.
Sector volume growth increased 7.5% in Q1 17 driven partially by a stronger
Asian market but also clear improvement in Europe and North America while it
increased only 2.1% in Q2 (in part due to de-stocking in Asia). For Q3 and Q4 17
we expect robust volume growth of 4% level on average.
Sector pricing improvement more visible. Raw materials cost increases have The magnitude of pricing increases
been more evident in Q1 and Q2 (still materially lower than the increase seen in compared to the level of raw material
inflation will vary company-to company with
2011) however companies seem confident of passing it onto customers, albeit the ultimate delta dependent on the market
with a small lag effect. For the more upstream (base chemical) names we see share positions, contract structures, and
little risk of material margin impact and expect the robust volume demand trends position within the chemicals value chain.
to continue to more than offset any intra-quarter timing issue in passing on
inflation. Please refer to our sector outlook note: (June 2017 Outlook: Reasons
to be (relatively) cheerful) for more details. We expect average price inflation for
the sector in 2017 of approximately 4% but continue to see this more weighted
towards H1 17 given the base effect.
Figure 1: Pricing trends in European chemicals Figure 2: Volume trends in European chemicals
14% 30%
10% 20%
6%
10%
2%
0%
-2%
-6% -10%
-10% -20%
-14% -30%
FY 17E
Q1 01
Q1 02
Q1 03
Q1 04
Q1 05
Q1 06
Q1 07
Q1 08
Q1 09
Q1 10
Q1 11
Q1 12
Q1 13
Q1 14
Q1 15
Q1 16
Q1 17
FY 17E
Q1 01
Q1 03
Q1 05
Q1 06
Q1 07
Q1 08
Q1 09
Q1 10
Q1 11
Q1 12
Q1 13
Q1 14
Q1 15
Q1 16
Q1 17
Q1 02
Q1 04
Pricing changes - year-on-year Volume changes - year-on-year
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data. Note that this price index is a straight average of the Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data. Note that this price index is a straight average of the
year-on-year movements reported by European chemical companies year-on-year movements reported by European chemical companies
Figure 3: Europe chemicals consensus earnings revisions Figure 4: US chemicals consensus earnings revisions
110 110
100 100
90 90
80 80
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Aug-17
Mar-17
May-17
Oct-16
Apr-17
Feb-17
Jul-17
Dec-16
Jun-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Aug-17
Oct-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
May-17
Consensus 2017 EPS forecasts - rebased to 100 Consensus 2017 EPS forecasts - rebased to 100
Consensus 2018 EPS forecasts - rebased to 100 Consensus 2018 EPS forecasts - rebased to 100
Source: Factset Source: Factset
Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3

23 August 2017
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Chemical Databook
Consensus EPS Changes over past 12 months

Figure 5: Air Liquide consensus earnings revisions Figure 6: AkzoNobel consensus earnings revisions
102 102
101
100 100
98 99
98
96 97
94 96
95
92 94
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Aug-16
Sep-16
Jul-17
Oct-16
Aug-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Oct-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-16
Sep-16
Apr-17
Aug-17
Mar-17
Consensus 2017 EPS Consensus 2017 EPS forecast -rebased to 100
forecast -rebased to 100 Consensus 2018 EPS forecast -rebased to 100
Figure 7: Arkema consensus earnings revisions Figure 8: BASF consensus earnings revisions
115 115
110 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90
Jul-17
Jul-17
Nov-16
Dec-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Aug-17
Dec-16
Sep-16
Jun-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Aug-16
Aug-17
May-17
Oct-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Feb-17
May-17
Consensus 2017 EPS forecast -rebased to 100 Consensus 2017 EPS forecast -rebased to 100
Figure 9: Covestro consensus earnings revisions Figure 10: Evonik consensus earnings revisions
250 105
200 100
150 95
100 90
50 85
0 80
Jul-17
Jan-17
Jun-17
Aug-16
Sep-16
Aug-17
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Apr-17
May-17
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
Aug-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
May-17
Feb-17
Feb-17

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Figure 11: Pricing and volume trend in European Chemicals (%)
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 FY 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 FY 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 FY 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 FY 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Gases
Air Liquide Gas & Services
-Sales growth (ex FX, M&A, natg 0.0% 4.0% 3.9% 4.4% 3.1% 5.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% 4.0% 2.4% 3.5% 4.5% 4.8% 3.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.0% 1.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%
Linde Gas
-Sales growth (ex FX, M&A, natg 3.7% 3.6% 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.4% 3.7% 1.5% 2.7% 1.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.9% 1.3% -1.6% 2.9% 1.4% 0.9% -0.3%
Bulk
BASF
-Price 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -0.5% -3.0% -2.0% -4.0% -4.0% -3.3% -8.0% -8.0% -8.0% -11.0% -8.8% -6.0% -7.0% -5.0% 1.0% -4.3% 8.0% 7.0%
-Volume 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.3% 4.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1.0% 4.5% 5.0% 2.0% -1.0% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.0% 8.0% 3.0%
Lanxess
-Price -5.5% -9.0% -11.1% -8.0% -8.4% -7.2% -4.6% -1.0% -1.0% -3.5% -8.0% -11.0% -10.0% -10.0% -9.8% -8.0% -7.0% -6.8% -3.0% -6.2% 11.0% 10.8%
-Volume -6.4% -2.0% 9.4% 6.0% 1.8% 6.8% 1.8% 1.0% -8.0% 0.4% 0.0% 5.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% 5.1% 8.0% 3.9% 11.0% 1.3%
Arkema
-Price 0.4% -5.2% -2.0% -1.1% -2.0% -2.6% -4.4% -1.7% -0.8% -2.4% -3.1% -3.1% -4.3% -9.0% -4.9% -5.5% -5.2% -4.5% 0.8% -3.6% 4.9% 7.1%
-Volume -1.3% 3.5% 0.9% 2.4% 1.4% 3.3% 1.1% 1.6% -2.2% 1.0% -2.5% 2.1% -0.5% 2.0% 0.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 5.8% 3.2% 4.6% 1.8%
Solvay
-Price -1.9% -1.0% -3.7% -3.0% -2.4% -0.7% -0.2% 0.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% -1.0% 0.1% -1.2% -0.5% -1.9% -2.4% -3.2% -2.2% -2.4% -0.4% 2.8%
-Volume -0.1% -2.2% -0.3% -1.0% -0.9% 2.6% 3.3% 5.1% 3.7% 3.7% -2.0% -4.0% -1.0% -3.9% -2.7% -0.1% 1.0% -2.9% 3.9% 0.5% 7.5% 8.1%
Specialties
AkzoNobel
-Price -1.0% -1.0% 1.0% -1.0% -0.5% 2.0% -1.0% -1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -0.3% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -3.0% -2.3% -1.0% -1.0%
-Volume -3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.8% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% -1.0% 1.3% -2.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% -1.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.3% 4.0% 2.0%
Clariant
-Price 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.3% -1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
-Volume 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0% 3.3% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% -1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 2.3% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.8% 6.0% 4.0%
Croda
-Sales growth (ex FX) -0.8% -1.5% 0.8% 0.9% -0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 5.2% 2.3% 1.7% 3.3% -0.9% -3.0% -2.9% 0.6% -1.6% 4.9% 2.7%
DSM
-Price -3.0% -4.0% -2.0% -3.0% -3.0% -3.0% -2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -1.8% -1.0% -2.0% -1.0% -2.0% -1.5% -3.0% -1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% 3.0% 2.0%
-Volume 3.0% 6.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.3% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.8% 5.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0%
Givaudan
-Sales growth (ex FX) 3.9% 7.2% 3.7% 7.0% 5.5% 5.7% 3.3% 4.3% 1.1% 3.6% 0.9% 1.7% 3.3% 4.8% 2.7% 5.8% 6.6% 3.1% 1.6% 4.3% 3.5% 1.1%
Symrise
-Sales growth (ex FX) 7.1% 8.5% 8.2% 7.0% 7.7% 5.9% 4.0% 2.7% 7.0% 4.9% 6.0% 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.3% 7.3% 9.2% 8.9% 6.3% 7.9% 5.3% 5.0%
Agrochemicals
Syngenta
-Sales growth (ex FX) 8.0% -2.0% 11.0% 7.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 12.0% 5.3% 1.0% 7.0% 0.0% -6.0% 0.5% 0.0% -5.0% -4.0% -1.0% -2.5% -1.0% -4.0%
Hybrid
Bayer
-Price 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% -0.4% -0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% -0.1% -1.2% -2.4% -3.2% -1.7% -2.0% -2.1% -0.1% 1.4% -0.7% 3.5% 3.8%
-Volume 1.4% 4.3% 6.0% 5.7% 8.8% 8.8% 5.7% 6.8% 5.9% 6.8% 2.8% 4.9% 4.3% 5.6% 4.4% 5.2% 4.4% 3.6% 3.4% 4.2% 5.9% -1.9%
Source: Company Data
Figure 12: Pricing and volume trend in US Chemicals (%)
Gases Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 FY 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 FY 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 FY 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 FY 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Air Products
-Price 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
-Volume -2.0% -2.0% -4.0% -2.0% -2.5% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.8% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.3% 7.0% 8.0%
Praxair
-Price 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
-Volume 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -3.0% -1.8% -2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% 4.0% 3.0%
Bulk
Dow
-Price 1.0% -2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% -4.0% 0.3% -12.0% -12.0% -18.0% -19.0% -15.3% -11.0% -9.0% -6.0% 0.0% -6.5% 7.0% 5.0%
-Volume -3.0% 2.0% -2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% -2.0% 2.0% 10.0% 3.0% 3.3% 4.0% 11.0%
Dupont
-Price 1.0% -1.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.3% -1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% -0.8% 0.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% -0.8% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.0% -1.3% 1.0% -1.0%
-Volume 2.0% 1.0% 9.0% 9.0% 5.3% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.8% -1.0% -2.0% -7.0% -1.0% -2.8% -2.0% 2.0% 3.0% -1.0% 0.5% 4.0% 6.0%
Eastman
-Price -1.0% -1.0% 1.0% 0.0% -0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% -6.0% -7.0% -9.0% -9.0% -7.8% -9.0% -8.0% -7.0% -3.0% -6.8% 0.0% 3.0%
-Volume 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.5% -1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.5% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.0% 2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.8% 4.0% 3.0%
Specialties
PPG
-Price 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2%
-Volume -3.0% -0.9% 1.8% 2.2% 0.0% 4.7% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5% 3.6% 1.2% 1.0% -1.0% 1.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.9% 0.0%
Agrochemicals
Monsanto
-Price 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 15.0% 8.3% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.8% -1.0% 7.0% na na na na na na na na 0.0% 3.0%
-Volume 9.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% 0.0% 3.0% -4.0% 9.0% -9.0% -0.3% -8.0% 5.0% na na na na na na na na 10.0% -1.0%
Source: Company Data

23 August 2017
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Stock performance: Europe

Figure 13: Euro specialties vs MSCI Europe Figure 14: Euro gases vs MSCI Europe
150 150
140 140
130 130
120 120
110 110
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
Feb 17
May 17
Jul 17
Feb 17
May 17
Jun 17
Jul 17
Nov 16
Dec 16
Jan 17
Jan 17
Aug 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Sep 16
Aug 17
Oct 16
Mar 17
Apr 17
Aug 16
Sep 16
Aug 17
Oct 16
Mar 17
Apr 17
Specialties MSCI Europe Gases MSCI Europe
Figure 15: European chemical stock prices (%)
Price Mkt cap Absolute to FTSE Eurotop 300 (%) Relative to MSCI Europe (%)
Company Curr 21/08/2017 ($m) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth YTD 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth YTD
Hybrid 103,979 -4 -9 10 7 -3 -6 -1 2
Bayer Euro 106.4 103,979 -4 -9 10 7 -3 -6 -1 2
Bulk 135,663 0 -4 18 -4 1 -1 7 -10
Arkema Euro 94.0 8,411 -4 -2 19 1 -3 1 7 -4
BASF Euro 80.4 87,311 -1 -6 12 -9 1 -3 0 -14
Covestro Euro 66.4 15,897 4 -1 44 2 5 2 32 -4
Lanxess Euro 62.5 6,756 -5 -4 31 0 -4 -2 19 -5
Solvay Euro 121.7 15,227 0 3 25 9 1 6 13 4
Synthomer Euro 470.0 2,062 -6 -6 24 23 -5 -3 13 17
Specialty 131,939 0 -1 8 12 1 1 -4 7
Akzo Euro 77.4 23,072 2 3 30 30 3 6 19 25
Clariant CHF 22.1 7,653 0 6 31 26 1 9 20 20
Croda GBp 3810.0 6,461 -2 -3 12 19 -1 0 0 14
DSM Euro 63.3 13,580 0 -4 3 11 1 -1 -9 6
Evonik Euro 27.4 15,089 -6 -13 -9 -3 -5 -10 -20 -9
Givaudan CHF 1935.0 18,605 1 -3 -5 4 2 0 -16 -2
Johnson Matthey GBp 2765.0 6,906 -4 -9 -17 -13 -3 -6 -29 -19
Kemira Euro 10.8 1,975 1 -7 -7 -11 2 -4 -19 -17
Novozymes DKr 304.8 12,168 4 4 6 25 5 7 -5 20
Symrise Euro 61.0 9,355 2 -4 -9 5 3 -1 -21 0
Umicore Euro 63.4 8,394 -3 6 16 17 -2 8 4 12
Victrex GBp 2051.0 2,271 7 3 32 6 8 5 20 1
Wacker Euro 104.0 6,410 4 5 25 5 5 8 13 0
AgChem 20,745 -5 -5 7 -7 -4 -3 -1 -11
ICL ILS 15.8 5,596 -6 3 4 0 -5 5 5 1
K+S Euro 19.6 4,423 -13 -17 11 -14 -12 -15 -1 -19
Yara NOK 309.9 10,726 -2 -5 8 -9 0 -2 -4 -14
Gases 82,912 -3 -5 8 0 -2 -2 -4 -5
Air Liquide Euro 102.5 47,025 -3 -7 7 -3 -2 -5 -5 -9
Linde Euro 163.5 35,887 -3 -1 8 5 -2 1 -4 -1
Sector Summary 475,237 -2 -5 11 4 -1 -2 0 -2
Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset

23 August 2017
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Chemical Databook
Stock performance: US
Figure 16: US specialties vs S&P 500 Figure 17: US gases vs S&P 500
150
150
130
130
110 110
90 90
70 70
Feb 17
May 17
Jan 17
Jul 17
Nov 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Aug 16
Sep 16
Mar 17
Aug 17
Oct 16
Apr 17
Feb 17
May 17
Jul 17
Aug 16
Jan 17
Jun 17
Sep 16
Aug 17
Oct 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
Mar 17
Apr 17
Specialties S&P 500 Gases S&P 500
Figure 18: US chemical stock prices (%)
Company Curr Price Mkt cap Absolute stock performance (%) Relative to S&P 500 (%)
21 Aug 17 ($m) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth YTD 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth YTD
Hybrid 71,013 -3 5 17 11 -1 3 6 3
Dupont $ 81.8 71,013 -3 5 17 11 -1 3 6 3
Bulk 138,340 -2 6 20 10 0 4 9 2
Celanese $ 96.7 13,297 -1 15 46 23 1 13 35 14
Dow $ 63.9 78,129 -3 4 20 12 -2 2 8 3
Eastman $ 83.1 12,044 -3 6 25 11 -1 4 14 2
Lyondellbasell $ 88.1 34,870 1 9 10 3 3 7 -1 -6
Specialty 107,323 -4 0 10 16 -2 -2 -1 8
Albemarle $ 113.5 12,536 -4 3 37 32 -2 1 26 23
Ecolab $ 130.4 37,735 -2 3 6 11 0 1 -5 3
PPG $ 102.4 26,261 -4 -4 -2 8 -2 -6 -13 0
Sherwin Williams $ 329.6 30,790 -6 -1 15 23 -5 -3 3 14
AgChem 86,358 -3 1 9 3 -1 -1 -2 -6
Agrium $ 97.7 13,484 -2 6 8 -3 0 4 -3 -11
Monsanto $ 116.9 51,335 0 1 12 11 1 -1 1 3
Mosaic $ 19.9 6,971 -19 -16 -3 -32 -17 -18 -14 -41
Potash $ 17.4 14,567 -4 4 7 -4 -2 2 -4 -13
Gases 69,171 -2 1 4 7 0 0 -7 -2
Air Products $ 145.2 31,636 0 1 1 1 1 -1 -10 -8
Praxair $ 131.2 37,535 -3 2 7 12 -1 0 -4 3
Sector Summary 472,204 -3 3 13 10 -1 1 2 1
Source: Factset

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Stock performance: Asia

Figure 19: Asia chemical stock prices (%)
Company Curr Price Mkt cap Absolute stock performance (%) Relative to Local Exchanges(%)
21 Aug 17 ($m) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth YTD 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth YTD
Japan 122,321 -4 7 45 15 0 8 28 13
Shin Etsu JPY 9573 38,036 -7 -2 31 6 -4 -1 14 4
Sumco JPY 1667 4,495 -10 -12 83 10 -6 -11 66 9
Sumitomo JPY 1514.5 17,416 2 4 39 10 5 5 22 9
Asahi Kasei JPY 1254 16,173 -4 17 47 23 0 18 30 22
Tosoh JPY 1183 7,072 -11 21 93 43 -8 22 76 42
Mitsui Chemicals JPY 646 6,072 1 16 37 23 5 17 20 22
Mitsubishi Chemicals JPY 973.1 13,478 -1 16 66 28 2 17 49 27
JSR JPY 2040 4,242 6 7 39 11 9 8 21 9
Nitto Denko JPY 9600 15,338 -3 7 36 7 0 8 18 6
China 120,489 -2 2 18 9 -4 -4 12 3
CPC CNY 6 104,798 -3 3 21 11 -4 -3 15 5
Sinopec CNY 7 9,551 0 5 8 6 -2 -2 2 0
Yizheng Chemical Fibre CNY 3 6,140 1 -14 -20 -22 -1 -20 -26 -28
Taiwan 90,244 0 3 15 -1 2 -1 -1 -14
Formosa Chemicals and Fi TWD 92 17,786 1 3 10 -4 3 -1 -6 -17
Formosa Plastics TWD 93 19,422 1 5 18 4 2 1 2 -9
Formosa Petrochemicals TWD 104 32,520 -1 -1 9 -8 0 -5 -7 -20
Oriental Union Chemical TWD 25 739 -12 10 30 10 -11 6 14 -3
Nan ya Plastics TWD 76 19,776 1 7 24 6 2 3 8 -7
Thailand 21,838 0 -3 3 3 0 -4 1 0
Vinythai THB 22 766 3 8 115 30 3 7 113 27
Siam Cement THB 488 17,602 -2 -6 -5 -2 -2 -7 -7 -4
Thai Petrochem THB 6 3,470 9 11 16 18 9 10 14 15
Summary 354,892 -2 4 25 8 -1 1 13 2
Source: Deutsche Bank, Relative performance measured against NIKKEI 225 for Japanese stocks, HANGSENG INDEX for Chinese stocks, TSECTAIWAN 50 for Taiwanese stocks and BANGKOK
S.E.T. 100 for Thai stocks
Figure 20: Asian company guide – Product exposure matrix
Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Sub-sector comparison
Bulk: US subsector declined while European sub sector was flat in last one month.
In Europe, Covestro increased 4% month-on-month while Synthomer was the
weakest name with 6% decline month-on-month followed by Lanxess (-5%),
Arkema (-4%) and BASF (-1%) while Solvay remained flat month on month. In
the US sub-sector, Lyondellbasell increased 1% month-on-month while Dow and
Eastman were down 3% month-on-month followed by Celanese which declined
1% month-on-month.
Specialties: US sub-sectors declined while European sub sector was flat in last
one month. In the US Sherwin Williams was the weakest name with 6% decline
in last one month followed by PPG and Albemarle (-4% each) and Ecolab (-2%).
In Europe Victrex was the strongest name with 7% increase while Evonik was
the weakest name with 6% decline in the last month.
Gases: In Gases sub-sector both US and Europe sub-sectors saw modest decline
in last one month. In Europe both Linde and Air Liquidedeclined 3% month-on-
month. In US, Praxair decline 3% while Air Products remained flat in last one
month.
Figure 21: European vs US Agrochemicals Figure 22: European vs US and Asian bulk
10% 20%
5% 10%
0% 0%
-5%
-10%
-10%
-20%
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Feb-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Apr-17
May-17
Europe Agrochemicals US Agrochemicals

Euro Bulk US Bulk Asia Bulk
Figure 23: European vs US specialties Figure 24: European vs US gases
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
-10% -10%
Jul-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
Aug-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Europe Specialties US Specialties Europe Gases US Gases

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Industrial gases data

Figure 25: 2017E market share for gas industry Figure 26: Capex/sales for gas companies (2017E)
14.0%
Others
19% Linde/Praxair 12.0%
34%
TNS 10.0%
4%
8.0%
AirProducts 6.0%
12% 4.0%
2.0%
Air Liquide
31% 0.0%
Praxair AirProducts Air Liquide Linde (Gas)
Source: Deutsche Bank, Spiritus Consulting. Data shown pro-forma for Linde/Praxair expected antitrust Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data. Data shown on the basis of gas business only not total
divestments. We assume 1/3 of these assets will go to Air Liquide, 1/3 to Air Products and the remaining company
to “Other” industry players
Figure 27: US underlying growth rates (%) Figure 28: Europe underlying growth rates (%)
25% 20%
20% 15%
15%
10%
10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
-5% -5%
-10%
-15% -10%
-20% -15%
Q2 06
Q4 06
Q2 09
Q4 09
Q4 11
Q2 12
Q4 14
Q2 15
Q2 17
Q2 05
Q4 05
Q2 07
Q4 07
Q2 08
Q4 08
Q2 10
Q4 10
Q2 11
Q4 12
Q2 13
Q4 13
Q2 14
Q4 15
Q2 16
Q4 16
Q2 05
Q4 05
Q2 06
Q4 06
Q2 07
Q4 07
Q2 08
Q4 08
Q2 09
Q4 09
Q2 10
Q4 10
Q2 11
Q4 11
Q2 12
Q4 12
Q2 13
Q4 13
Q2 14
Q4 14
Q2 15
Q4 15
Q2 16
Q4 16
Q2 17
APD Praxair AL Linde

APD Praxair AL Linde
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data. Linde data unavailable for Q4 06 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data. Linde data unavailable for Q4 06
Figure 29: Asia underlying growth rates (%) Figure 30: Global rolling 12m average growth rates
40% 20%
30% 15%
20% 10%
10% 5%
0%
0%
-10%
-5%
-20%
-10%
Q4 05
Q2 06
Q4 07
Q4 09
Q2 11
Q2 13
Q4 14
Q2 15
Q4 16
Q2 05
Q4 06
Q2 07
Q2 08
Q4 08
Q2 09
Q2 10
Q4 10
Q4 11
Q2 12
Q4 12
Q4 13
Q2 14
Q4 15
Q2 16
Q2 17
04
05
05
06
06
07
07
08
08
09
09
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q4
Q2
Q2
Q4
Q2
APD Praxair AL Linde APD Praxair AL (Gases) Linde
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data. Linde data unavailable for Q4 06 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data, For APD Underlying Data includes Merchant, Tonnage
and Healthcare segments only from Q3 06 to Q2 08. Healthcare divested thereafter. Data from Q3 08
onwards includes Merchant and Tonnage only.

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Agrochemicals update
Figure 31: US Soybean prices (US $/bushel) Figure 32: US Wheat prices (US $/bushel)
21 10
18
8
15
12 6
9
4
6
3 2
0 0
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-17
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb 12
Feb 13
Feb 14
Feb 15
Feb 16
Feb 17
Aug 11
Aug 12
Aug 13
Aug 14
Aug 15
Aug 16
Figure 33: US Corn prices (US $/bushel) Figure 34: Crop prices (indexed to 100)
400
10 350
8 300
250
6
200
4 150
2 100
50
0
0
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-79
Feb-81
Feb-83
Feb-85
Feb-87
Feb-89
Feb-91
Feb-93
Feb-95
Feb-97
Feb-99
Feb-01
Feb-03
Feb-05
Feb-07
Feb-09
Feb-11
Feb-13
Feb-15
Feb-17
Corn Wheat Soybean
Source: Factset
Figure 35: Historical Corn & Wheat stock to use ratio Figure 36: Global Stocks / Use ratio
50% 40%
40% 35%
30%
30%
25%
20%
20%
10% 15%
0% 10%
2017E
2017E
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Corn Rice Wheat Soybean Corn Rice Wheat Soybean
Source: USDA Source: USDA

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Figure 37: US net farm income (constant US$ bn) Figure 38: Indexed EU farm incomes
130 130
120 120
110
110
100
90 100
80 90
70 80
60
70
50
40 60
2016E
2017E
Av 00-06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
50
2016E
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: USDA, Deutsche Bank estimates Source: Cropnosis. Deutsche Bank estimates
Figure 39: Global crop protection market shares Figure 40: Global total seed sales (Conventional+Biotech)
Others Others
20% Syngenta 21%
19% Monsanto
25%
Nufarm
3% Farmer
owned
Adama Bayer CS 6%
6% 18%
State/Co-
DuPont ops Dupont/Pion
6% 11% eer
Bayer
Monsanto 18%
3% Vilmorin/Lim
7% Dow AS BASF KWS Saat Syngenta
agrain
9% 12% 3% 8%
5%
Source: Deutsche Bank Estimates Source: Deutsche Bank Estimates
Figure 41: Global market split by product Figure 42: Global market split by crop
Others Other crops
5% 17%
Fruit and
Cotton vegetables
Fungicides
6% 32%
25%
Herbicides
45% Rice
9%
Maize
9%
Insecticides Soybean Cereals
25% 11% 16%
Source: Deutsche Bank Estimates Source: Deutsche Bank Estimates

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Petrochemicals update
Figure 43: Ethylene margin ($/tonne) Figure 44: Global ethylene supply & demand (kt/pa)
1,600 250,000 100.0%
1,400
1,200 200,000 95.0%
1,000 150,000 90.0%
800
600 100,000 85.0%
400
50,000 80.0%
200
0 0 75.0%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017E
2019E
2021E
-200
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Global Capacity Operating rate Effective Operating rates
North America ($/tonne) West Europe ($/tonne)
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates and IHS
Figure 45: Global ethylene operating rates Figure 46: Ethylene capacity by region (2018E)
Southeast Asia
100.0% 7%
North America
23%
95.0%
Northeast Asia
90.0% 26%
South America
85.0% 3%
80.0% West Europe

Indian 13%
75.0% Subcontinent
4% Africa Central Europe
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2019E
2017E
2021E
1% Middle East CIS & Baltic 1%

19% States
3%
Operating rate Effective Operating rates
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates and IHS Source: Deutsche Bank estimates and IHS
Figure 47: Global ethylene capacity additions Figure 48: CAGR in ethylene capacity by region (2016 –
21E)
10%
9% 6%
8% 5.1% 4.9%
7% 5%
6% 3.7%
5% 4%
4% 3%
3%
2% 2% 1.5%
1%
0% 1%
0.0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2013
2014
2015
2016
2000
2001
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
0%
North West Middle East Asia Incl Rest of
America Europe Japan World

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Figure 49: Regional share of global ethylene capacity Figure 50: Global ethylene cost curve
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
North America West Europe Middle East Asia Incl Japan Rest of World
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates and IHS Source: IHS
Figure 51: Petrochemical margin index Figure 52: Price index chart for key chemicals
250 310
200 260
150 210
100 160
50 110
0 60
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Petrochemical margin index Average chemical prices
Source: Source: IHS. ‘Olefin’ margin relates to the through the chain average chemical margins
IHS. NOTE: this is an average of 5 key petrochemical products in Europe, Asia and the US. Data are
rebased to 100 as of January 1990.
Figure 53: Brent oil price forecasts ($/bbl) Figure 54: Natural gas price forecasts ($/mmBtu)
130 14
120
110 12
100 10
90
80 8
70 6
60
50 4
40 2
30
20 0
Q1 05
Q3 05
Q1 06
Q3 06
Q1 07
Q3 07
Q1 08
Q3 08
Q1 09
Q3 09
Q1 10
Q3 10
Q1 11
Q3 11
Q2 12
Q4 12
Q2 14
Q4 14
2011
2013
2015
2017E
2019E
Q1 05
Q3 05
Q1 06
Q3 06
Q1 07
Q3 07
Q1 08
Q3 08
Q1 09
Q3 09
Q1 10
Q3 10
Q1 11
Q3 11
Q2 12
Q4 12
Q2 14
Q4 14
2017E
2019E
2011
2013
2015
Source: Factset, Deutsche Bank estimates

Source: Factset, Deutsche Bank estimates

Bulk
-200
200
400
600
0
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
500
0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
500
0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
Jan-00
Jan-03 Jan-03
Jul-03 Jul-03 Jan-01
Jan-04 Jan-04
Jul-04 Jul-04
23 August 2017
Jan-05 Jan-05 Jan-02
U.S.
U.S.
Jul-05 Jul-05
Chemical Databook

Jul-06 Jul-06
Jan-07 Jan-07

Jan-08 Jan-08
Jan-09 Jan-09
Jul-09 Jul-09
North America ($/tonne)

Jul-10 Jul-10
S.E. Asia
S.E. Asia
Figure 58: HDPE (pricing), $/tonne

Jul-11 Jul-11
Figure 56: Ethylene (pricing), $/tonne

Jan-12 Jan-12
Jan-13 Jan-13
Jan-14 Jan-14
Jul-14 Jul-14
Jul-15 Jul-15
W. Europe
Jul-16 Jul-16
W. Europe
Jul-17 Jul-17
Jan-13
West Europe ($/tonne)
Jan-14
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
Jan-15
500
0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
Jan-03 Jan-03
Figure 55: North American and European ethylene margins (US $/tonne)
Jan-04 Jan-04
Jul-04 Jul-04
Jan-05 Jan-17
Jan-05
U.S.
Jul-05 Jul-05
Jan-06 Jan-06
Jul-06 Jul-06
Jan-07 Jan-07
U.S.
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jan-08 Jan-08
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jan-09 Jan-09
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jan-10 Jan-10
Jul-10 Jul-10
S.E. Asia
Jan-11 Jan-11
Figure 59: HDPE (margins), $/tonne

Jul-11 Jul-11
Jan-12 Jan-12
Figure 57: Propylene (pricing), $/tonne
Jul-12 Jul-12
Jan-13 Jan-13
Jul-13 Jul-13
Jan-14 Jan-14
Jul-14 Jul-14
W. Europe
Jan-15 Jan-15
Jul-15 Jul-15
Jan-16 Jan-16
Jul-16 Jul-16
W. Europe
Jan-17 Jan-17
Jul-17 Jul-17
Page 15
Bulk
400
800
500
1,200
1,600
2,000
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
250
500
750
0
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
Page 16
Jul-03 Jul-03 Jul-03
23 August 2017
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
Chemical Databook

`
Figure 62: PVC (pricing), $/tonne

N.E. Asia
S.E. Asia
N.E. Asia
Figure 64: Benzene (pricing), $/tonne

Figure 60: Polypropylene (pricing), $/tonne

W. Europe
W. Europe
W. Europe
-150
-650
-450
-250
-50
150
300
450
600
750
150
350
550
750
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
Source: ICIS
500
1,000
0
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jan-03 Jan-03
Jan-03 Jul-03 Jul-03
Jan-04 Jan-04
Jan-05 Jan-05
U.S.
US Gulf
Jan-06 Jan-06
Jan-07 Jan-07
U.S.

Jan-08 Jan-08
Jan-09 Jan-09
Jan-10 Jan-10
Figure 63: PVC (margins), $/tonne
N.E. Asia
Jan-11 Jan-11
Jan-12 Jan-12
Jan-12 Figure 65: Acrylic Acid (pricing), $/tonne Jul-12 Jul-12
North West Europe

Jan-13 Jan-13
Figure 61: Polypropylene (margins), $/tonne
Jan-14 Jan-14
W. Europe
Jan-15 Jan-15
Jan-16 Jan-16
W. Europe
Jan-17
China
Jan-17

Bulk
200
400
600
800
0
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
Jan-03
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
500
0
Jul-03 Jan-06
Jan-03 Jan-04
Jul-04 Jan-07
Jan-04 Jan-05
23 August 2017
Jul-05
U.S.
Chemical Databook
Source: IHS and Tecnon Orbichem

Jan-06 Jul-06
Jan-09
North America
Jan-07
Jan-07 Jul-07

Jan-08
N.E. Asia
Jan-10
Jan-08 Jul-08
Jan-09
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-10 Jul-10
Figure 66: MDI (pricing), $/tonne
Figure 68: ECU (pricing), $/tonne

Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-11 Jul-11
W. Europe
N.E. Asia
Jan-12 Jan-13
Jan-12
Figure 70: Butadiene (pricing), $/tonne

Jul-12
Jul-13
Jan-14 Jan-14
Jul-14 Jan-15
Jan-15 Jan-15
W. Europe
Jul-15 Jan-16
Jan-16 Jan-16
Asia
Jul-16
West Europe
Jul-17
1500
2500
3500
4500
5500
6500
7500
-200
200
0
400
600
800
1,200
1,000
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan-03 Jan-06
Jan-03
Jul-03 Jul-03
Jul-04 Jul-04
Asia
Jan-05
U.S.
Jan-05
U.S.
Jul-05 Jan-08
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jan-06
Jan-07 Jan-07
Jul-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jul-08
Jul-09 Jul-09
Jan-10 Jan-10
Figure 67: TDI (pricing), $/tonne

N.E. Asia
Figure 69: ECU (margins), $/tonne
Jan-11 Jan-11
North America
Jul-11 Jul-11
W. Europe

Jul-12 Jul-12
Jul-13 Jul-13
Jan-14 Jan-14
Jan-15 Jan-15
Jan-16 Jan-16
Asia
Jul-16
W. Europe
Jul-16
Figure 71: Styrene butadiene rubber (pricing), $/tonne
West Europe
Jul-17 Jul-17
Page 17
Bulk
500
0
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
1,500
2,000
3,500
500
1,000
2,500
3,000
-500
0
Page 18
Feb-03 Jan-06 Jan-03
Jul-03
Dec-03 Sep-06 Jan-04
Jul-04
23 August 2017
Oct-04 May-07 Jan-05

Jan-08 Jul-05
Chemical Databook
Aug-05
Jan-06
W. Europe
N.E. Asia
Jun-06 Sep-08 Jul-06
W. Europe
May-09 Jan-07
Apr-07 Jul-07
Jul-08
Oct-09 May-11 Jul-09
Jan-10
Aug-10 Jan-12 Jul-10
Jan-11
Figure 72: Styrene (pricing), $/tonne
Jun-11 Sep-12
N.E. Asia
Jul-11
Asia
Jan-12
W. Europe
Apr-12 May-13
Figure 74: MDI-Benzene Spread ($/ton)

Jul-12
Jul-13
Figure 76: Butadiene-Naphtha Spread, $/ton

Oct-14 May-15 Jul-14
Jan-15
Aug-15 Jan-16 Jul-15
Jan-16
Jun-16 Sep-16 Jul-16
U.S
U.S.
Apr-17 Jan-17
N. America
May-17 Jul-17
-200
-100
100
200
300
400
500
3000
4000
5000
6000
1000
2000
7000
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
1,000
1,200
200
400
600
800
0
Jan-06 Jan-03
Jan-03 Jul-03
Nov-03 Sep-06 Jan-04
Jul-04
Sep-04 May-07 Jan-05
Jan-08 Jul-05
Jul-05 Jan-06
W. Europe
May-06 Sep-08 Jul-06
Jan-07
W. Europe
Mar-07 May-09 Jul-07
Jan-10 Jan-08
Jan-08 Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10 Jan-12 Jul-10
Jan-11
W. Europe
Sep-12 Jul-11
S.E. Asia
May-11
Figure 73: Styrene (margins), $/tonne
Asia
Jan-12
Figure 75: TDI- Toluene Spread ($/ton)

Jul-13
Figure 77: Propylene-Naptha spread ($/ton)

Jul-14
Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-15
Jan-16
May-16 Sep-16 Jul-16
U.S
Jan-17
N. America

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Inorganic pricing
Figure 78: Soda Ash (pricing), $/tonne Figure 79: Caustic Soda (pricing), $/tonne
400 1,200
350
1,000
300
250 800
200 600
150
100 400
50 200
0
0
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jul-05
Jul-10
Jul-15
Jan-03
Nov-03
Sep-04
Jan-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Jan-13
Nov-13
Sep-14
May-06
Mar-07
May-11
Mar-12
May-16
Mar-17
NW Europe US
Source: Factset
North America Northeast Asia West Europe
Source: IHS
Figure 80: Salt (pricing), $/tonne Figure 81: Chlorine (pricing), $/tonne
70 500
60
400
50
40 300
30 200
20
100
10
0 0
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
North America
North America Northeast Asia West Europe
Source: IHS
Source: IHS
Figure 82: Potassium Hydroxide (pricing), $/tonne Figure 83: Bromine (pricing), $/tonne
820
5000
800
4000
780
760 3000
740 2000
720
1000
700
680 0
Q1 11
Q3 11
Q1 12
Q3 12
Q1 13
Q3 13
Q1 14
Q3 14
Q1 15
Q3 15
Q1 16
Q3 16
Q1 17
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-12
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
North America
China
Source: IHS
Source: Gulf Resources Inc.

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Figure 84: Titanium dioxide (pricing), $/ton Figure 85: Rare Earth’s (pricing), CNY/tonne
5,000 200,000
4,000
150,000
3,000
100,000
2,000
1,000 50,000
0 0
Jul-12
Jul-17
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Dec-12
Sep-11
Oct-13
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-12
Aug-14
Feb-17
May-13
Mar-14
Sep-10
Dec-10
Sep-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Dec-12
Sep-13
Dec-13
Sep-14
Dec-14
Sep-15
Dec-15
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-11
Jun-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Europe, $/ton US, $/ton Cerium Oxide Lanthanum Oxide

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Survey indicators
Figure 86: German Ifo survey Figure 87: Global GDP growth rate (%)
130 4.0%
3.0%
120
2.0%
110 1.0%
0.0%
100 -1.0%
-2.0%
90
2017E
2018E
2015
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17
Current assessment Business expectations Overall Ifo survey
Global GDP growth rate

Source: German federal statistics office
Figure 88: ISM survey Figure 89: Michigan survey

70
110
60
100
50
40 90
30 80
20 70
10 60
Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17
ISM overall Production New orders Current Index Expected Index Consumer Sentiment Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management Source: University of Michigan
Figure 90: US weekly railcar loadings, 4-week m.a. Figure 91: US weekly railcar loadings
34 30%
32 20%
30 10%
28 0%
(10%)
26
(20%)
24 Week# 33 (30%)
22 (40%)
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
2015 2016 2017
Source: Association of American railroads

Source: Association of American railroads

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Macro indicators
Figure 92: Year-on-year FX changes Figure 93: Autos – % change in annual production
20%
CHF/Euro
Euro/$ 10%
Euro/£
£/$ 0%
CHF/$
-10%
Euro/Yen
2011
Q3 17E
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Q2 17E
Q4 17E
2017E
2018E
Q1 17
Euro/Real
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

US Europe
Source: Factset
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, JD Power
Figure 94: Price of Brent Crude ($/barrel) Figure 95: Price of Natural Gas ($/MMBTU)
160 16
140 14
120 12
100 10
80 8
60 6
40 4
20 2
0 0
May 11
May 16
Sep 09
Aug 12
Sep 14
Aug 17
Jul 15
Sep 09
Aug 12
Sep 14
Jul 15
Aug 17
Jul 10
Jul 10
May 11
Feb 10
Mar 12
Feb 15
Mar 17
Jan 08
Jun 08
Feb 10
Jan 13
Jun 13
Feb 15
May 16
Jan 08
Jun 08
Jan 13
Jun 13
Mar 12
Mar 17
Apr 09
Apr 14
Oct 16
Apr 09
Oct 11
Apr 14
Nov 08
Dec 10
Nov 13
Dec 15
Oct 16
Oct 11
Nov 13
Dec 15
Nov 08
Dec 10
Brent Crude Natural Gas
Source: Reuters Source: Reuters
Figure 96: key FX changes (-ve YoY number indicates positive impact on company with EUR, USD, GBP or CHF
reporting currency)
EUR/USD EUR/JPY EUR/BRL EUR/AUD EUR/INR USD/JPY USD/BRL USD/AUD USD/INR GBP/USDGBP/EUR CHF/EUR CHF/USD
2015 1.11 134.33 3.70 1.48 71.22 121.02 3.34 1.33 64.16 1.53 1.38 0.94 1.04
2016 1.11 120.26 3.86 1.49 74.36 108.71 3.49 1.34 67.19 1.36 1.22 0.92 1.02
YoY change -0.3% -10.5% 4.3% 0.7% 4.4% -10.2% 4.5% 1.0% 4.7% -11.3% -11.1% -2.1% -2.3%
Q3 17E 1.17 129.10 3.71 1.48 75.17 110.27 3.17 1.27 64.20 1.30 1.11 0.89 1.04
YoY change 4.9% 13.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.6% 7.8% -2.4% -3.8% -4.1% -1.3% -5.9% -3.4% 1.3%
2017 (current) 1.18 128.54 3.72 1.49 75.79 108.78 3.14 1.26 64.14 1.29 1.09 0.88 1.04
vs. 2016 average 6.8% 6.9% -3.7% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% -9.8% -6.4% -4.5% -4.8% -10.8% -4.1% 2.4%

Chemical Databook
Bulk
23 August 2017
Figure 97: Organic chemistry – Petrochemical derivatives

Page 23
23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Valuation data
Figure 98: 2018E ROCE vs 2018E EV/Capital employed
3.30
Givaudan
2.80
Synthomer
Symrise
Umicore
EV/CE 2018E
2.30
Solvay
1.80 JMAT
Clariant Linde
Air Liquide
DSM BASF Akzo
1.30 Evonik
Arkema
Lanxess
Yara
0.80
7.0% 12.0% 17.0% 22.0% 27.0%
ROCE 2018E
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Figure 99: Estimated 2018E EV/EBITDA vs 2018E EBITDA margin
19.0
17.0 Givaudan
15.0
Syngenta
EV\EBITDA 2018E
Croda
13.0 Symrise
Umicore
11.0
Synthomer Air Liquide
Akzo
9.0 Clariant Linde
K+S
Evonik JMAT Solvay
Yara BASF
7.0 Lanxess
DSM
Arkema
5.0 Covestro
12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 26.0% 28.0% 30.0%
EBITDA margin 2018E
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Seasonal share price

performance
Figure 100: BASF seasonal share price performance and seasonal performance relative to MSCI Europe
16.0%
12.0%
8.0%
4.0%
0.0%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
-4.0%
Average for BASF absolute (90-17) Average for BASF rel. to MSCI Europe (90-17)

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Figure 101: MSCI Europe Chemicals seasonal share price performance and seasonal performance relative to MSCI
Europe
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MSCI Europe Chemicals (average for 1998 to 2017) MSCI Europe Chemicals relative to MSCI Europe (average for 1998 to 2017)

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Global sector valuation

Figure 102: Global sector valuation
COMPANY TICKER Rec. Cur Shareprice Target DB EPS P/E EV/EBITDA Market Cap
21.8.17 Price 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E (US$ m)
EUROPE: MAJORS Closing price Target
ARKEMA AKE.PA Buy EUR 94.0 115.0 7.3 8.3 12.8 11.3 6.6 6.0 8,363
BASF BASFn.DE Buy EUR 80.4 101.0 6.4 6.9 12.6 11.7 7.9 7.4 86,812
COVESTRO 1COV.DE Buy EUR 66.4 85.0 7.5 7.3 8.9 9.1 5.1 5.1 15,806
LANXESS LXSG.DE Buy EUR 62.5 79.0 3.9 5.2 15.9 11.9 8.7 7.1 6,717
SOLVAY SOLB.BR Sell EUR 121.7 100.0 8.8 8.7 13.8 14.0 7.8 7.9 14,761
SYNTHOMER SYNTS.L Buy GBP 470.0 550.0 30.7 33.2 15.4 14.3 11.0 10.3 2,054
EUROPE: IND GAS
AIR LIQUIDE AIRP.PA Buy EUR 102.5 128.0 5.2 5.8 19.8 17.6 11.3 10.5 46,835
LINDE LING.DE Buy EUR 163.5 210.0 8.2 8.9 20.0 18.3 10.0 9.3 35,663
EUROPE: INDUSTRIAL SPECIALTY
AKZO AKZO.AS Buy EUR 77.4 84.0 4.7 5.2 16.6 15.0 10.8 9.7 22,942
CLARIANT CLN.S Hold CHF 22.1 22.0 1.2 1.3 18.0 16.4 10.3 9.6 7,455
DSM DSMN.AS Hold EUR 63.3 63.0 3.9 4.1 16.3 15.5 7.6 7.2 13,091
EVONIK EVKn.DE Hold EUR 27.4 32.0 2.0 2.1 13.8 13.3 8.5 8.0 15,003
JOHNSON MATTHEY JMAT.L Buy GBP 2765.0 3600.0 220.6 241.8 12.5 11.4 8.5 7.6 7,818
LENZING LENV.VI Hold EUR 146.4 156.0 11.1 11.7 13.2 12.5 7.4 7.1 4,567
UMICORE UMI.BR Buy EUR 63.4 73.0 2.5 2.9 25.1 22.0 13.2 11.7 8,114
VICTREX VCTX.L Hold GBP 2051.0 1850.0 103.8 117.2 19.8 17.5 13.4 11.8 2,249
EUROPE: CONSUMER SPECIALTY
CRODA CRDA.L Hold GBP 3810.0 3600.0 171.5 180.3 22.2 21.1 14.3 13.5 6,502
GIVAUDAN GIVN.S Hold CHF 1935.0 1800.0 79.8 85.7 24.3 22.6 18.2 16.8 18,529
NOVOZYMES NZYMb.CO Hold DKK 304.8 275.0 10.9 11.5 27.9 26.5 17.8 16.9 14,126
SYMRISE SY1G.DE Buy EUR 61.0 75.0 2.5 2.9 24.3 21.2 14.8 13.2 9,281
EUROPE: AGROCHEMICALS
K+S SDFGn.DE Sell EUR 19.6 17.0 0.99 1.39 19.7 14.1 11.2 8.9 4,398
YARA YAR.OL Hold NOK 309.9 320.0 16.58 20.33 18.7 15.2 8.7 7.6 10,672
EUROPE: PHARMA
BAYER BAYGn.DE Buy EUR 106.4 124.0 7.4 8.0 14.5 13.4 9.6 8.9 108,936
US: MAJORS
Celanese CE.N Buy $ 96.7 110.0 7.4 8.3 13.2 11.7 9.4 8.3 13,240
Dow DOW.N Buy $ 63.9 72.0 4.1 4.4 15.6 14.4 7.8 7.1 77,333
DuPont DD.N Buy $ 81.8 95.0 3.9 4.2 21.1 19.5 12.1 11.2 71,064
Eastman EMN.N Buy $ 83.1 95.0 7.5 8.2 11.1 10.1 8.3 7.8 12,163
PPG PPG.N Hold $ 102.4 115.0 6.0 6.8 16.9 15.2 10.8 10.5 26,142
LyondellBasell LYB.N Hold $ 88.1 94.0 10.0 8.5 8.8 10.4 6.3 7.1 37,002
Kronos KRO.N Hold $ 19.0 8.0 0.2 NA 90.4 NA 26.2 NA 2,199
US: AGROCHEMICALS
Monsanto MON.N Buy $ 116.9 128.0 5.0 5.5 23.6 21.3 14.4 12.9 51,277
US: INDUSTRIAL
Air Products APD.N Buy $ 145.2 168.0 6.2 6.6 23.3 22.0 10.7 10.1 30,672
Praxair PX.N Hold $ 131.2 142.0 5.8 6.2 22.8 21.2 12.8 11.9 37,551
US: SPECIALTY
Albemarle ALB.N Buy $ 113.5 128.0 4.4 4.9 25.8 22.9 15.4 14.3 12,750
Ashland ASH.N Buy $ 60.9 74.0 2.5 3.4 24.5 17.9 11.0 9.1 3,790
Axalta AXTA.N Buy $ 29.2 33.0 1.3 1.5 22.4 18.9 9.6 8.4 7,034
Cabot CBT.N Hold $ 51.7 57.0 3.5 3.8 15.0 13.6 8.0 7.3 3,221
Compass Minerals CMP.N Hold $ 65.0 72.0 3.2 4.0 20.0 16.3 10.9 9.7 2,194
IFF IFF.N Hold $ 134.9 139.0 5.7 6.1 23.5 22.1 15.6 14.9 10,677
Ecolab ECL.N Hold $ 130.4 134.0 4.8 5.3 27.2 24.6 14.9 14.1 37,780
H. B. Fuller FUL.N Hold $ 49.1 56.0 2.6 2.9 18.9 17.1 10.3 9.6 2,475
Trinseo TSE.N Buy $ 60.3 74.0 6.5 7.9 9.3 7.6 5.6 4.9 2,638
Emerging EMEA
Sasol SOLJ.J Hold ZAR 392.8 360.0 35.1 36.7 11.0 10.7 5.7 6.3 17,347
SABIC 2010.SE Hold SAR 98.2 95.0 6.4 6.7 15.3 14.7 7.0 6.4 78,555
Source: Factset, Deutsche Bank estimates. *For Johnson Matthey FY17E is March ending 2018. For Monsanto FY17E is Aug ending 2017. For H.B Fuller FY17E is Nov ending 2017. For Cabot FY17E
is Sep ending 2017. For additional information on all stocks mentioned here please refer to our website at: http://gm.db.com

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Figure 103: European Valuations
COMPANY Mkt. Cap Rec. Shareprice Target P/E EV/EBITDA EV/Sales FCF Yield % Dividend Yield%
(US$ m) 21-Aug-17 Price
Sub-sector Average 13.2 12.0 11.1 7.9 7.3 6.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 6.0% 6.9% 7.6% 2.9% 3.2% 3.4%
ARKEMA 8,363 Buy EUR 94.0 115.0 12.8 11.3 10.1 6.6 6.0 5.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 4.0% 6.6% 7.5% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3%
BASF 86,812 Buy EUR 80.4 101.0 12.6 11.7 10.7 7.9 7.4 6.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 5.6% 7.0% 7.9% 4.1% 4.4% 4.7%
COVESTRO 15,806 Buy EUR 66.4 85.0 8.9 9.1 8.8 5.1 5.1 4.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 11.9% 8.7% 8.3% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2%
LANXESS 6,717 Buy EUR 62.5 79.0 15.9 11.9 10.9 8.7 7.1 6.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.8% 7.3% 7.7% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8%
SOLVAY 14,761 Sell EUR 121.7 100.0 13.8 14.0 13.1 7.8 7.9 7.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 8.7% 7.6% 8.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2%
SYNTHOMER 2,054 Buy GBP 470.0 550.0 15.4 14.3 13.3 11.0 10.3 9.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 4.3% 4.4% 6.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%
AIR LIQUIDE 46,835 Buy EUR 102.5 128.0 19.8 17.6 16.3 11.3 10.5 9.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 3.4% 4.4% 4.8% 2.8% 3.1% 3.4%
LINDE 35,663 Buy EUR 163.5 210.0 20.0 18.3 16.7 10.0 9.3 8.7 2.2 2.1 2.0 5.6% 5.4% 5.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6%
AKZO 22,942 Buy EUR 77.4 84.0 16.6 15.0 13.4 10.8 9.7 8.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 4.0% 5.0% 5.8% 8.3% 3.3% 3.5%
CLARIANT 7,455 Hold CHF 22.1 22.0 18.0 16.4 15.1 10.3 9.6 9.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 3.7% 4.4% 4.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4%
DSM 13,091 Hold EUR 63.3 63.0 16.3 15.5 14.7 7.6 7.2 6.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 3.5% 4.8% 5.1% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0%
EVONIK 15,003 Hold EUR 27.4 32.0 13.8 13.3 12.3 8.5 8.0 7.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 4.0% 5.9% 5.3% 4.3% 4.5% 4.7%
JOHNSON MATTHEY 7,818 Buy GBP 2765.0 3600.0 12.5 11.4 10.7 8.5 7.6 7.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 4.8% 5.3% 5.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4%
LENZING 4,567 Hold EUR 146.4 156.0 13.2 12.5 12.2 7.4 7.1 7.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 4.3% 1.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2.4% na
UMICORE 8,114 Buy EUR 63.4 73.0 25.1 22.0 19.4 13.2 11.7 10.4 2.7 2.4 2.2 -1.7% 0.1% 1.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%
VICTREX 2,249 Hold GBP 2051.0 1850.0 19.8 17.5 16.2 13.4 11.8 10.6 5.9 5.3 4.7 4.0% 4.6% 5.3% 4.7% 2.8% 3.1%
CRODA 6,502 Hold GBP 3810.0 3600.0 22.2 21.1 19.8 14.3 13.5 12.6 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.1% 4.5% 4.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4%
GIVAUDAN 18,529 Hold CHF 1935.0 1800.0 24.3 22.6 21.2 18.2 16.8 15.8 4.0 3.8 3.6 2.7% 3.0% 3.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.7%
NOVOZYMES 14,126 Hold DKK 304.8 275.0 27.9 26.5 24.7 17.8 16.9 15.9 6.3 5.9 5.5 2.4% 3.2% 3.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7%
SYMRISE 9,281 Buy EUR 61.0 75.0 24.3 21.2 19.0 14.8 13.2 11.9 3.2 2.9 2.7 4.7% 4.9% 5.7% 1.6% 1.9% 2.0%
Sub-sector Average 19.2 14.7 11.6 9.9 8.2 7.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 -9.4% 1.8% 4.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.4%
K+S 4,398 Sell EUR 19.6 17.0 19.7 14.1 11.0 11.2 8.9 7.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 -9.5% 4.0% 6.8% 2.3% 3.6% 4.9%
YARA 10,672 Hold NOK 309.9 320.0 18.7 15.2 12.2 8.7 7.6 6.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 -9.2% -0.4% 1.2% 2.9% 3.2% 3.9%
SECTOR AVERAGE 17.7 15.9 14.5 10.6 9.7 8.9 2.3 2.2 2.0 3.1% 4.8% 5.4% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1%
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates. *For Johnson Matthey FY16E is March ending 2017. For Victrex FY17E is September ending 2017. "Industrial and Consumer Specialty
Figure 104: European chemical sector financial performance
Company Sales Net debt Net Detb/EBITDA BV/Share EBIT Margin EBITDA Margin CFROA RoCE RoE
17E 18E 19E 17E 17E 17E 17E 18E 19E 17E 18E 19E 17E 18E 19E 17E 18E 19E 17E 18E 19E
Bulk 12.4 12.5 12.9 19.0 18.9 19.2 16.6 16.8 17.5 14.5 14.6 15.2 16.8 16.4 16.5
Arkema 8,354 8,707 9,054 1,315 1.0 57.7 10.8 11.3 11.8 16.3 16.6 17.0 15.7 16.6 17.5 13.1 14.2 15.3 12.3 12.8 13.3
BASF (Euro) 63,946 67,159 69,680 13,924 1.1 37.8 12.3 12.6 13.1 19.1 19.1 19.6 15.7 16.2 17.0 12.4 13.0 14.0 16.9 17.0 17.3
Covestro (Euro) 13,777 14,371 14,993 225 0.1 25.6 16.6 15.0 14.6 21.3 19.6 19.0 29.1 27.4 26.9 34.5 31.1 29.8 29.3 24.0 21.5
Lanxess (Euro) 9,552 7,827 7,227 2,649 2.0 28.8 7.6 9.1 9.6 13.6 15.1 15.5 12.7 11.5 14.4 9.4 9.3 10.7 8.9 11.3 15.5
Solvay (Euro) 11774 12204 12635 2573 1.0 109.2 12.0 11.6 11.8 21.2 20.6 20.8 10.9 11.0 11.6 8.2 8.2 8.6 8.1 7.8 8.1
Synthomer (GBp) 1,409 1,487 1,559 194 1.1 1.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 15.8 16.1 16.6 20.0 19.9 20.7 23.3 24.0 22.6
Industrial Gases 15.1 15.5 15.9 24.4 24.7 25.0 13.1 13.5 13.9 11.1 11.6 12.0 10.4 11.4 11.6
Air Liquide (Euro) 20,795 21,770 22,791 14,808 2.9 44.4 16.6 16.9 17.2 24.5 24.9 25.2 11.6 12.0 12.4 9.6 10.1 10.5 11.3 11.8 12.0
Linde (Euro) 17,388 18,121 18,921 6,867 1.6 79.9 13.2 13.7 14.2 24.2 24.5 24.8 15.0 15.5 15.8 13.1 13.5 14.0 9.2 10.9 11.2
Industrial Specialties 12.3 12.7 13.1 17.8 18.1 18.5 15.6 16.3 17.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 14.4 15.1 15.4
Akzo Nobel (Euro) 14,814 15,329 15,912 2,066 0.9 49.7 11.2 12.1 12.8 15.3 16.0 16.8 21.8 23.1 24.4 18.8 20.7 22.6 18.8 20.9 21.4
Clariant (CHF) 6,207 6,429 6,660 1,408 1.5 7.9 10.9 11.2 11.3 15.3 15.6 15.7 10.0 10.4 10.7 9.6 10.2 10.6 12.0 12.4 12.7
DSM (Euro) 8,518 8,773 9,036 448 0.3 43.0 10.8 10.9 11.1 18.7 18.8 19.1 11.4 11.6 12.0 10.7 10.9 11.3 8.3 8.6 8.8
Evonik (Euro) 14,344 15,103 15,709 3,000 1.3 16.8 10.3 10.4 10.8 16.2 16.1 16.3 11.8 12.1 12.6 10.0 10.0 10.0 11.8 11.8 12.2
JMAT (GBp) 3,816 4,041 4,215 587 0.8 1296.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 18.6 19.0 19.4 16.1 16.6 16.8 17.7 18.3 18.5 17.0 16.8 16.3
Umicore (Euro) 2,881 3,323 3,676 579 1.0 17.7 13.9 13.9 14.4 20.7 20.6 21.1 13.3 13.7 14.5 12.9 13.7 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.6
Victrex(GBp) 281 318 343 -93 -0.8 513.4 39.2 39.1 39.1 44.2 44.7 44.6 29.5 31.6 32.4 30.1 31.9 32.7 21.4 22.4 22.3
Consumer Specialties 20.9 21.2 21.6 26.4 26.5 26.8 21.3 21.7 22.5 20.4 20.9 21.7 24.0 23.7 23.5
Croda (GBp) 1,362 1,406 1,459 319 0.8 497.7 24.2 24.4 24.8 28.4 28.6 29.0 25.8 25.7 26.4 27.8 27.7 28.7 34.5 30.6 27.9
Givaudan (CHF) 4,926 5,228 5,478 1,201 1.1 373.3 17.7 18.2 18.8 22.2 22.6 23.0 16.2 16.5 17.1 16.5 17.3 18.0 21.6 22.1 22.5
Novozymes (DKK) 14,658 15,369 16,164 2,081 0.4 39.6 28.5 28.0 28.0 35.4 34.9 34.8 32.0 32.1 32.9 28.8 28.6 28.8 27.5 27.5 27.2
Symrise (Euro) 3,058 3,266 3,469 1,329 2.0 14.1 15.1 16.0 16.5 21.5 22.1 22.5 14.5 15.9 17.1 12.1 13.5 14.8 17.0 17.5 17.5
Agrochemicals 7.8 9.3 10.8 15.2 16.9 18.3 9.1 10.4 11.4 6.0 7.0 8.3 5.3 6.5 7.8
K+S (Euro) 3,905 4,228 4,470 4,119 5.9 24.1 8.6 10.7 12.4 17.9 21.1 22.4 6.8 8.5 9.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 4.1 5.6 6.9
Yara (NOK) 92,670 97,848 102,354 24,038 1.8 284.5 7.5 8.7 10.2 14.0 15.2 16.6 10.0 11.1 12.3 6.9 7.8 9.2 5.8 6.8 8.2
Sector Average 13.9 14.2 14.7 20.8 21.0 21.3 15.8 16.3 16.9 14.1 14.5 15.2 15.2 15.5 15.7
Notes:
1) BV/Share adjusted for previously written-off goodwill. 2) EBITA and EBITDA margins shown on an underlying basis where possible 3) CFRoA is defined as EBITDA divided by Total Assets (adjusted
for Goodwill write-offs) minus Cash. 4) RoCE defined as EBITA divided by Total Shareholder Funds (adjusted for Goodwill write-offs), Net Debt and other long-term items. 5) RoE defined as pre goodwill
net income divided by Total Shareholder funds (adjusted for Goodwill write-offs)
Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates, Croda BV/Share is in Pence. *For Johnson Matthey FY17E is March ending 2018. For Victrex FY17E is September ending 2017.**sales excluding
precious metals ."Industrial Specialties and Consumer Specialties

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Historical P/E and EV/

EBITDA valuations
(absolute)
Figure 105: Air Liquide 12-month forward P/E Figure 106: Air Liquide 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
24 15.0
12.0
20
9.0
16
6.0
12 3.0
0.0
8
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-16
Jan-90
Jan-98
Jan-06
Jan-12
Jan-14
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Figure 107: AkzoNobel 12-month forward P/E Figure 108: AkzoNobel 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
20 15.0
18
16
12.0
14 9.0
12
10 6.0
8
6 3.0
4
0.0
2
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
May-91
May-94
May-00
May-03
May-09
May-12
May-97
May-06
May-15
Nov-92
Nov-98
Nov-01
Nov-07
Nov-10
Nov-16
Nov-95
Nov-04
Nov-13
Source: Factset
Source: Factset

5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Bulk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
May-91 Jul-92
May-92 Jul-93 Jun-06
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
May-93 Jul-94
May-95 Jul-96
23 August 2017

Chemical Databook
May-97 Jul-98
May-99 Jul-00
May-00 Jul-01

May-01 Jun-10
Jul-02
May-02
Jul-03 Jun-11
May-03
May-04 Jul-04
Jul-05
May-05 Jun-12
May-06 Jul-06
May-07 Jul-07
Jul-08 Jun-13
May-08
Jul-09
Figure 111: BASF 12-month forward P/E
Figure 113: Bayer 12-month forward P/E

May-09
Jul-10 Jun-14
Figure 109: Arkema 12-month forward P/E
May-10
May-11 Jul-11
May-13 Jul-13
May-15 Jul-15
May-17 Jul-17
0.0
4.0
8.0
2.0
6.0
10.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Nov-00 Jun-06
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Sep-00
Nov-01
Sep-01 Jun-07
Sep-02 Nov-02
Sep-03 Nov-03 Jun-08
Sep-04 Nov-04
Jun-09
Sep-05 Nov-05
Sep-07 Nov-07
Jun-11
Sep-08 Nov-08
Sep-10 Nov-10
Jun-13
Sep-11 Nov-11
Sep-13 Nov-13
Jun-15
Sep-14 Nov-14
Figure 112: BASF 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Figure 114: Bayer 12-month forward EV/EBITDA

Figure 110: Arkema 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Sep-16 Nov-16
Jun-17
Page 31
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Bulk
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jun-95 Feb-96
Jan-97
Page 32
Jun-96 Feb-97
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Jan-98
Jun-97 Feb-98
Jun-98 Jan-99
Feb-99
Jan-00
23 August 2017
Jun-99 Feb-00
Jun-00 Jan-01
Feb-01
Chemical Databook
Jun-01 Jan-02
Feb-02
Jun-02 Jan-03
Feb-03
Jun-03 Jan-04
Feb-04
Jun-04 Jan-05
Feb-05
Jun-05 Jan-06
Feb-06
Jun-06 Jan-07
Feb-07
Jun-07 Jan-08 Feb-08
Jun-10
Figure 119: DSM 12-month forward P/E

Jan-11 Feb-11
Figure 117: Croda 12-month forward P/E

Jun-11 Jan-12
Figure 115: Clariant 12-month forward P/E
Feb-12
Jun-14
Jan-15 Feb-15
Jun-15
Jan-16 Feb-16
Jun-16
Jan-17 Feb-17
Jun-17
0
3
6
9
12
15
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Sep-00
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Sep-00
Sep-01 Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02 Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03 Sep-02
Sep-03 Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-04 Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-05 Sep-05
Sep-06 Sep-06
Sep-06
Sep-07 Sep-07
Sep-07
Sep-08 Sep-08
Sep-08
Sep-09 Sep-09
Sep-09
Sep-10 Sep-10
Sep-10
Sep-11 Sep-11 Sep-11
Figure 120: DSM 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Figure 118: Croda 12-month forward EV/EBITDA

Figure 116: Clariant 12-month forward EV/EBITDA

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Bulk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jul-00 May-13
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Apr-00 Jul-01 Aug-13
Apr-01 Jul-02 Nov-13
Apr-02
23 August 2017
Jul-03 Feb-14
Apr-03
Chemical Databook
Jul-04 May-14
Apr-04
Jul-05 Aug-14
Apr-05
Jul-06 Nov-14

Apr-06
Jul-07 Feb-15
Apr-07
Jul-08 May-15
Apr-08
Jul-09 Aug-15
Apr-09
Feb-16
Figure 125: ICL 12-month forward P/E

Apr-11 Jul-11
Apr-12 Jul-12 May-16
Figure 121: Evonik 12-month forward P/E
Apr-13 Jul-13 Aug-16
Figure 123: Givaudan 12-month forward P/E

Apr-15 Jul-15 Feb-17
Apr-16 Jul-16 May-17
Apr-17 Aug-17
Jul-17
0.0
6.0
8.0
2.0
4.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
0.0
3.0
12.0
15.0
6.0
9.0
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Apr-05 Mar-01 Jun-13

Mar-02 Oct-13
Apr-06
Mar-03
Feb-14
Apr-07 Mar-04
Mar-06 Oct-14
Apr-09
Mar-07
Feb-15
Apr-10 Mar-08
Mar-10 Oct-15
Apr-12
Mar-11
Feb-16
Apr-13 Mar-12
Mar-14 Oct-16
Figure 126: ICL 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-17
Figure 122: Evonik 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Apr-16 Mar-16
Figure 124: Givaudan 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Page 33
0
5
10
15
20
25
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
Bulk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jun-97 Jun-98 Dec-94
Page 34
Jun-98
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Jun-99 Dec-95
Jun-99 Dec-96
Jun-00
Jun-00 Dec-97
23 August 2017
Jun-01 Dec-98
Jun-01
Jun-02 Dec-99
Chemical Databook
Jun-02
Jun-03 Dec-00
Jun-03
Jun-04 Dec-01
Jun-04
Jun-05 Dec-02
Jun-05 Dec-03
Jun-06 Jun-06
Dec-04
Figure 129: K+S 12-month forward P/E

Figure 127: JMAT 12-month forward P/E
Figure 131: Kemira 12-month forward P/E

Dec-10
Jun-12 Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-13 Jun-13
Dec-12
12.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
12.0
15.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
May-03 Apr-03 Sep-00

Sep-02
May-05 Apr-05
Sep-03
May-06 Apr-06
Sep-04
Sep-09
May-11 Apr-11
Sep-10
May-12 Apr-12
Sep-11
Figure 130: K+S 12-month forward EV/EBITDA

Figure 128: JMAT 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Figure 132: Kemira 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Apr-16 Sep-15
May-16
Sep-16
May-17 Apr-17

23 August 2017
Bulk
Chemical Databook
Figure 133: Lanxess 12-month forward P/E Figure 134: Lanxess 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
25 8.0
20 6.0
15
4.0
10
2.0
5
0 0.0
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-17
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Figure 135: Lenzing 12-month forward P/E Figure 136: Lenzing 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
10.0
27
8.0
22
17
6.0
12 4.0
7 2.0
2 0.0
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Figure 137: Linde 12-month forward P/E Figure 138: Linde 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
30 12.0
10.0
25
8.0
20
6.0
15 4.0
10 2.0
0.0
5
Sep-00
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-13
Sep-15
Sep-01
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-09
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-14
Sep-16
Dec-93
Dec-95
Dec-97
Dec-99
Dec-01
Dec-03
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Dec-11
Dec-13
Dec-15
Source: Factset
Source: Factset

12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
Bulk
Feb-07 Aug-92 Jun-01
Page 36
Aug-93
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Aug-07
Aug-94 Jun-02
Aug-08
23 August 2017
Aug-96
Chemical Databook
Aug-09 Aug-98 Jun-05

Feb-10 Aug-99
Aug-00 Jun-06
Aug-10
Aug-01 Jun-07
Feb-11 Aug-02
Aug-12 Aug-05
Aug-07
Aug-13 Jun-11
Aug-08
Figure 141: Solvay 12-month forward P/E

Aug-14 Aug-10
Figure 143: Symrise 12-month forward P/E

Aug-11 Jun-13
Feb-15
Jun-14
Figure 139: Novozymes 12-month forward P/E
Aug-15 Aug-12
Feb-16 Aug-13
Aug-14 Jun-15
Feb-17 Aug-16
10.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
24.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Apr-07 Oct-00 Jan-02

Oct-01 Jan-03
Apr-08
Oct-02 Jan-04
Oct-04 Jan-06
Apr-10 Oct-05
Jan-07
Oct-06
Apr-11 Jan-08
Oct-07
Jan-09
Apr-12 Oct-08
Jan-10
Oct-09
Oct-11 Jan-12
Apr-14
Oct-12 Jan-13
Oct-14 Jan-15
Apr-16
Figure 142: Solvay 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Oct-15 Jan-16
Figure 144: Symrise 12-month forward EV/EBITDA

Figure 140: Novozymes 12-month forward EV/EBITDA

0
5
0
4
8
10
15
20
25
30
12
16
20
Bulk
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jun-97 Jan-95 Dec-96
Jan-96 Dec-97
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Jun-98
Jan-97 Dec-98
Jun-99
Jan-98 Dec-99
Jun-00
23 August 2017
Jan-99 Dec-00
Jun-01 Jan-00
Chemical Databook
Jun-02 Dec-01
Jan-01
Jun-03 Dec-02
Jan-02

Jan-06 Dec-06
Jun-07
Jan-07 Dec-07
Jun-08
Jan-08 Dec-08
Jun-09
Jan-09 Dec-09
Jun-11 Jan-11
Figure 149: Victrex 12-month forward P/E

Dec-11
Figure 147: Umicore 12-month forward P/E

Jun-12 Jan-12
Dec-12
Figure 145: Synthomer 12-month forward P/E
Jun-13 Jan-13
Dec-13
Jun-14 Jan-14
Jan-15 Dec-14
Jun-15
Jan-16 Dec-15
Jun-16
Jan-17 Dec-16
Jun-17
10.0
12.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
12.0
15.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
18.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Oct-06
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Apr-03 Sep-00
Apr-04 Sep-01 Oct-07
Sep-02
Apr-05
Sep-03 Oct-08
Apr-06
Sep-04
Apr-07 Oct-09
Sep-05
Apr-09 Sep-07
Oct-11
Apr-10 Sep-08
Sep-09 Oct-12
Apr-11
Sep-10
Apr-12 Oct-13
Sep-11
Apr-13 Sep-12
Oct-14
Apr-14 Sep-13
Figure 150: Victrex 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Apr-16 Sep-15
Oct-16
Figure 148: Umicore 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Sep-16
Figure 146: Synthomer 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Apr-17
Page 37
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Bulk
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jun-97 Apr-94 Apr-04
Page 38
Apr-95
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Aug-98 Apr-96 Apr-05
Oct-99 Apr-97
Apr-06
23 August 2017
Dec-00 Apr-98
Apr-99
Chemical Databook
Feb-02 Apr-07
Apr-00
Apr-03 Apr-01 Apr-08
Jun-04 Apr-02
Apr-03 Apr-09
Aug-05
Apr-04
Oct-06 Apr-05 Apr-10
Dec-07 Apr-06 Apr-11
Apr-07
Feb-09
Apr-08 Apr-12
Apr-10
Figure 153: 3M 12-month forward P/E

Apr-09
Figure 151: Yara 12-month forward P/E
Jun-11 Apr-10 Apr-13
Figure 155: Agrium 12-month forward P/E

Aug-12 Apr-11
Apr-14
Apr-12
Oct-13 Apr-13 Apr-15
Dec-14 Apr-14
Feb-16 Apr-15 Apr-16
Apr-16
Apr-17 Apr-17 Apr-17
12.0
15.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
May-04 Jun-02 May-04

May-05 Jun-03
May-05
May-06 Jun-04
May-06
Jun-05
May-07 May-07
Jun-06
May-08 May-08
Jun-07
May-12 Jun-11
May-12
May-13 Jun-12
May-13
Jun-13
May-14 May-14
Jun-14
Figure 154: 3M 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Figure 152: Yara 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
May-15 May-15
Jun-15
Figure 156: Agrium 12-month forward EV/EBITDA


5
5
0
10
15
20
25
30
10
15
20
25
30
35
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
Bulk
Dec-93 Dec-93 Jan-94

Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
23 August 2017

Chemical Databook


Figure 159: Dow 12-month forward P/E

Figure 161: DuPont 12-month forward P/E

Figure 157: Air Products 12-month forward P/E

12.0
12.0
15.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Jul-02 Dec-02 Apr-03

Jul-13
Dec-13 Apr-14
Jul-14
Dec-14
Figure 160: Dow 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Apr-15
Jul-15
Dec-15
Figure 162: DuPont 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Apr-16
Jul-16
Dec-16
Jul-17 Apr-17
Figure 158: Air Products 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Page 39
5
10
15
20
25
30
5
8
10
13
18
23
28
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
33
Bulk
Mar-01 Jan-94 Aug-96
Page 40
Jan-95
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Mar-02 Aug-97
Jan-96
Aug-98
Mar-03 Jan-97
Aug-99
Jan-98
23 August 2017
Mar-04 Aug-00
Jan-99
Chemical Databook

Jan-01 Aug-02
Mar-06
Jan-02 Aug-03
Mar-07
Jan-03 Aug-04
Jan-06 Aug-07
Figure 165: IFF 12-month forward P/E

Jan-09
Mar-12 Aug-10
Jan-10
Figure 163: Ecolab 12-month forward P/E
Mar-13 Aug-11
Jan-11
Aug-12
Figure 167: Monsanto 12-month forward P/E

Mar-14 Jan-12
Jan-13 Aug-13
Mar-15 Aug-14
Jan-14
Jan-16 Aug-16
Mar-17
Jan-17 Aug-17
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
24.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Dec-02 Jun-08 Mar-03

Dec-03 Mar-04
Jun-09
Dec-04 Mar-05
Dec-06 Mar-07
Dec-08 Mar-09
Jun-12
Dec-09 Mar-10
Dec-11 Mar-12
Jun-14
Dec-12 Mar-13
Figure 166: IFF 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Dec-14 Mar-15
Dec-15 Jun-16
Figure 164: Ecolab 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Mar-16
Dec-16
Figure 168: Monsanto 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Jun-17 Mar-17

10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Bulk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-94 Dec-98
Jan-95 Jun-05
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Dec-99
Jan-96
Jan-97 Dec-00 Jun-06
Dec-01
23 August 2017
Jan-98
Jun-07
Jan-99 Dec-02
Chemical Databook

Jan-01
Dec-04
Jan-02 Jun-09

Jan-03 Dec-05
Jan-05 Dec-07
Jan-06 Jun-11
Dec-08
Jan-07
Jan-09 Dec-10
Jan-10 Jun-13
Dec-11
Figure 173: Praxair 12-month forward P/E

Figure 169: Mosaic 12-month forward P/E
Jan-11 Jun-14
Dec-12
Jan-12
Jan-13 Dec-13
Figure 171: Potash Corp 12-month forward P/E

Jun-15
Jan-14 Dec-14
Jan-16 Dec-16
Jan-17 Jun-17
10.0
12.0
14.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Source: Factset
Mar-03 Apr-03 Oct-06

Mar-04 Apr-04
Oct-07
Mar-05 Apr-05
Oct-08
Mar-06 Apr-06
Mar-09 Apr-09
Oct-11
Mar-10 Apr-10
Mar-13 Apr-13
Oct-14
Mar-14 Apr-14
Figure 174: Praxair 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Figure 170: Mosaic 12-month forward EV/EBITDA

Mar-17 Apr-17
Figure 172: Potash Corp 12-month forward EV/EBITDA
Page 41
23 August 2017
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Chemical Databook
Figure 175: Sherwin Williams 12-month forward P/E Figure 176: Sherwin Williams 12-month forward EV/
EBITDA
28
18.0
24
15.0
20
12.0
16
9.0
12
6.0
8
3.0
4
0.0
Dec-93
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Source: Factset
Source: Factset

23 August 2017
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Chemical Databook
Reporting dates & events

Figure 177: Reporting dates & events
Aug-17
21 22 23 24 25
Lenzing H1 17
28 29 30 31
Givaudan half year Investor conference
Sep-17
4 5 6 7 8
Lanxess CMD Lanxess CMD AkzoNobel EGM
11 12 13 14 15
18 19 20 21 22
JMAT CMD
25 26 27 28 29
DSM Investor Seminar DSM Investor Seminar
Oct-17
2 3 4 5 6
Monsanto Q4 17
9 10 11 12 13
Givaudan 9M 17 Suedzucker Q2 17
16 17 18 19 20
Givaudan Investor Days AkzoNobel Q3 17 Yara Q3 17
Givaudan Investor Days
23 24 25 26 27
BASF Q3 17 Novozyme Q3 17 Bayer Q3 17 Lyondellbasell Q3 17
Covestro Q3 17 Air Liquide Q3 17 KWS Saat FY 16/17
30 31
Linde 9M 17 Clariant 9M 17
Source: Company Data, Note: Dates are subject to change

23 August 2017
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Chemical Databook
Figure 178: Deutsche Bank chemical sub-sector definitions
Group Definition
European hybrids Bayer
US hybrids DuPont
European bulk Arkema, BASF, Lanxess, Solvay, Synthomer
US bulk Celanese, Dow, Lyondell

Akzo Nobel, Croda, Clariant, Givaudan, Johnson Matthey, kemira, Lonza, Novozymes, Symrise,
European specialties
Umicore, Victrex, Wacker
European-Agchems ICL, K+S, Syngenta, Yara
US-Agchems Agrium, Monsanto, Mosaic, Potash
US specialties Albemarle, Ecolab, Valspar, Sherwin-williams, PPG,
European gases Air Liquide, Linde
US gases Air Products, Praxair
In most cases we value the companies based on a DCF valuation to capture

the long-term free-cash-flow prospects. The WACC will vary depending on the
stock’s volatility, the cost of debt and capital structure. Equity risk premiums
and risk free rates tend to be the same across the sector. Long-term growth
rates do vary depending on each company’s long-term growth prospects. For
companies offering a broad portfolio, we tend to complement our DCF analysis
with a SoP, using peer group EV/EBITDA and PE multiples and a conglomerate
discount wherever relevant.
Key downside/upside risks for the sector are higher/lower raw material (mostly
oil-based) costs which can’t/can be passed through to customers through higher
prices (due to increasing/decreasing competition or weak/strong demand/GDP),
FX (generally weaker/higher US$) and weaker/higher GDP.

23 August 2017
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Chemical Databook
The authors of this report wish to acknowledge the contribution made by Saurabh
Mehndiratta and Manik Kalra, employees of Evalueserve, a third-party provider to
Deutsche Bank of offshore research support services.

23 August 2017
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Chemical Databook
Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
*Other information available upon request
*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg, and other vendors. Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject
companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than
the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure
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important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm/db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal"
tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject
issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any
compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Tim Jones, Martin Dunwoodie, Virginie
Boucher-Ferte
Equity Rating Key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder
return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current
price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) ,
we recommend that investors buy the stock.
Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder
return, we recommend that investors sell the stock.
Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and,
based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy
or Sell.
Newly issued research recommendations and target prices
supersede previously published research.

23 August 2017
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Chemical Databook
Additional Information
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Chemical Databook

Europe Industry Date

Bulk Industry Update

What goes up doesn't always have to

Q3s - demand trends good so far Top picks

Cyclical margins are still in a supply-constrained recovery mode

Deutsche Bank AG/London

Vols, price & EPS trends .................................................. 3

Stock performance: Europe ............................................. 6

Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London

Vols, price & EPS trends

Pricing changes - year-on-year Volume changes - year-on-year

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3

Consensus EPS Changes over past 12 months

Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/London

Figure 11: Pricing and volume trend in European Chemicals (%)

Source: Company Data

Figure 12: Pricing and volume trend in US Chemicals (%)

Source: Company Data

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 5

Stock performance: Europe

Specialties MSCI Europe Gases MSCI Europe

Source: Factset Source: Factset

Figure 15: European chemical stock prices (%)

Page 6 Deutsche Bank AG/London

Specialties S&P 500 Gases S&P 500

Source: Factset Source: Factset

Figure 18: US chemical stock prices (%)

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7

Stock performance: Asia

Figure 20: Asian company guide – Product exposure matrix

Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data

Page 8 Deutsche Bank AG/London

Europe Agrochemicals US Agrochemicals

Figure 23: European vs US specialties Figure 24: European vs US gases

Europe Specialties US Specialties Europe Gases US Gases

Source: Factset Source: Factset

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 9

Industrial gases data

APD Praxair AL Linde

APD Praxair AL Linde APD Praxair AL (Gases) Linde

Page 10 Deutsche Bank AG/London

Corn Rice Wheat Soybean Corn Rice Wheat Soybean

Source: USDA Source: USDA

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 11

Source: Deutsche Bank Estimates Source: Deutsche Bank Estimates

Page 12 Deutsche Bank AG/London

80.0% West Europe

1% Middle East CIS & Baltic 1%

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates and IHS

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 13

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates and IHS Source: IHS

Source: Factset, Deutsche Bank estimates

Page 14 Deutsche Bank AG/London

Jan-05 Jan-05 Jan-02

Jan-06 Jan-06 Jan-03

Deutsche Bank AG/London

North America ($/tonne)

Figure 58: HDPE (pricing), $/tonne