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UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA PERLIS

Peperiksaan Semester Kedua
Sidang Akademik 2014/2015

Jun 2015

BQT 173 – Business Statistics

[Statistik Perniagaan]
Masa : 3 jam

Please make sure that this question paper has TWELVE (12) printed pages including
the front page before you start the examination.
[Sila pastikan kertas soalan ini mengandungi DUA BELAS (12) muka surat bercetak termasuk muka
hadapan sebelum anda memulakan peperiksaan ini.]

This question paper consists of FOUR (4) QUESTIONS. Answer ALL questions.
APPENDIX is provided at page 12. Each question contributes 25 marks.
[Kertas soalan ini mengandungi EMPAT (4) SOALAN. Jawab SEMUA soalan. LAMPIRAN
disediakan di muka surat 12. Markah bagi setiap soalan adalah 25 markah.]

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Question 1
Soalan 1

The management of a soft-drink bottling company wants to develop a method to

determine delivery costs to customers. Although one cost clearly relates to travel
time within a particular route, another cost reflects the time required to unload the
carton of soft drink at the delivery point. A sample of 20 deliveries within a territory
was selected. The delivery times and the number of cartons delivered were recorded
as follow:
[Pengurusan syarikat pembotolan minuman ringan mahu membangunkan satu kaedah untuk
menentukan kos penghantaran kepada pelanggan. Walaupun satu kos dengan jelas berkaitan dengan
masa perjalanan dalam laluan tertentu, kos yang lain mencerminkan masa yang diperlukan untuk
memunggah karton minuman ringan di tempat penghantaran. Satu sampel kajian yang terdiri
daripada 20 penghantaran dalam satu wilayah telah dipilih. Masa penghantaran dan bilangan
karton yang dihantar telah direkodkan seperti berikut: ]

Table 1
[Jadual 1]
Customer No of Carton Delivery Time (minutes)
[Pelanggan] [Bilangan Karton] [Masa Penghantaran]
1 52 32.1
2 64 34.8
3 73 36.2
4 85 37.8
5 95 37.8
6 103 39.7
7 116 38.5
8 121 41.9
9 143 44.2
10 157 47.1
11 161 43.0
12 184 49.4
13 202 57.2
14 218 56.8
15 243 60.6
16 254 61.2
17 267 58.2
18 275 63.1
19 287 65.6
20 298 67.3

….3/-

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A regression model was developed to predict the delivery time based on the number
of carton delivered. The regression analysis outputs are as follow:
[Satu model regresi telah dibangunkan untuk meramalkan masa penghantaran berdasarkan bilangan
karton yang dihantar. Output analisis regresi adalah seperti berikut:]

Table 2
[Jadual 2]

Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Model R R Square Square Estimate Durbin-Watson

1 .986 .972 .970 1.98650 1.794

Table 3
[Jadual 3]

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F P Value

Regression 2443.466 A E G <0.0001

Residual D B F

Total 2514.498 C

Table 4
[Jadual 4]

Unstandardized 95% Confidence Interval for

Coefficients B

Lower
Model B Std. Error t P Value Bound Upper Bound

(Constant) 24.835 1.054 23.557 <0.0001 22.620 27.049

No of Cases .140 .006 24.884 <0.0001 .128 .152

(a) Define the independent and dependent variables in this problem.

[Tentukan pembolehubah bersandar dan tidak bersandar dalam masalah ini.]
(2 Marks / Markah)

(b) State the regression model and interpret the meaning of b0 and b1 in this
problem.
[Nyatakan model regresi dan tafsirkan maksud b 0 dan b 1 dalam masalah ini.]
(3 Marks / Markah)

(c) Complete the ANOVA table in Table 3 by calculating the values of A, B, C,

D, E, F and G.
[Lengkapkan jadual ANOVA dalam Jadual 3 dengan mengira nilai-nilai A, B, C, D, E, F dan
G.]
(7 Marks / Markah)

….4/-

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(d) Test the significance of the model at α = 0.05 .
[Uji keberkesanan model pada α=0.05.]
(4 Marks / Markah)

(e) Define and interpret the coefficients of determination and correlation

[Takrif dan tafsirkan pekali-pekali penentu dan korelasi.]
(4 Marks / Markah)

(f) Predict the delivery time for 150 cartons of soft drink.
[Ramalkan masa penghantaran untuk 150 karton minuman ringan.]
(2 Marks / Markah)

(g) Should you use the model to predict the delivery time for a customer who is
receiving 500 cartons of soft drink? Why or why not?
[Haruskah anda menggunakan model tersebut untuk meramalkan masa penghantaran bagi
pelanggan yang menerima 500 karton minuman ringan? Mengapa atau mengapa tidak?]
(3 Marks / Markah)

….5/-

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Question 2
Soalan 2

(a) Tables below are the output of data analysis using SPSS. The data collected
were about the student’s smoking habit (“smoke”) and the exercise frequency
(“exercise”). The data were collected randomly from 80 students.
[Jadual di bawah adalah output analisis data menggunakan SPSS. Data yang dikumpulkan
adalah mengenai tabiat merokok pelajar ("smoke") dan kekerapan senaman ("exercise").
Data telah dikumpulkan secara rawak daripada 80 orang pelajar.]

Table 5
[Jadual 5]
Case Processing Summary

Cases

Valid Missing Total

N Percent N Percent N Percent

smoke * exercise 80 100.0% 0 0.0% 80 100.0%

Table 6
[Jadual 6]
smoke * exercise Crosstabulation

exercise Total

1 2 3

Count 20 9 2 31
1
Expected Count 9.7 13.2 8.1 31.0

Count 3 16 6 25
Smoke 2
Expected Count 7.8 10.6 6.6 25.0

Count 2 9 13 24
3
Expected Count 7.5 10.2 6.3 24.0
Count 25 34 21 80
Total
Expected Count 25.0 34.0 21.0 80.0

Table 7
[Jadual 7]
Chi-Square Tests

Value Df Asymp. Sig. (2-sided)

Pearson Chi-Square 33.962a 4 .000

Likelihood Ratio 34.099 4 .000
Linear-by-Linear Association 26.032 1 .000
N of Valid Cases 80

a. 0 cells (0.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum

expected count is 6.30.
….6/-

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Based on those tables:
[Berdasarkan jadual-jadual tersebut:]

(i) Name two main types of chi-square test and describe each of their
purpose.
[Namakan dua jenis ujian utama khi-kuasa dua dan terangkan setiap satu daripada
kegunaan kedua-duanya.]
(4 Marks / Markah)

(ii) State three assumptions that need to be addressed before conducting a

chi-square test.
[Nyatakan tiga andaian yang perlu diberi perhatian sebelum menjalankan ujian khi-
kuasa dua.]
(3 Marks / Markah)

(iii) Construct the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses.

[Bina hipotesis nol dan alternatif yang sesuai.]
(2 Marks / Markah)

(iv) Conclude whether there is a relationship between students’ smoking

habit and the frequency of exercise. Explain your reason. Test
at α = 0.05 .
[Simpulkan sama ada terdapat hubungan antara amalan merokok pelajar dan
kekerapan senaman. Terangkan alasan anda. Uji pada α=0.05.]
(6 Marks / Markah)

(v) What can you comment on one of the main assumptions of chi-square
test based on the notes below Table 7?
[Apa yang anda boleh ulas tentang salah satu daripada andaian-andaian utama
ujian khi-kuasa dua berdasarkan nota di bawah Jadual 7?]
(2 Marks / Markah)

(b) A study was conducted to compare the discipline level of two groups of
worker. Two samples of twelve (12) and nine (9) workers were selected from
each group. The data was collected in the form of discipline scores and was
analyzed using SPSS. The analysis result is as follows:
[Satu kajian telah dijalankan untuk membandingkan tahap disiplin dua kumpulan pekerja.
Dua sampel sebanyak dua belas (12) dan sembilan (9) pekerja telah dipilih daripada setiap
kumpulan. Data dikumpulkan dalam bentuk markah disiplin dan dianalisis menggunakan
SPSS. Dapatan analisis adalah seperti berikut:]
Table 8
[Jadual 8]
Ranks

group N Mean Rank Sum of Ranks

1 12 11.50 138.00

discscore 2 9 10.33 93.00

Total 21

* discscore = discipline score ….7/-

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Table 9
[Jadual 9]
Test Statisticsa

discscore

Mann-Whitney U 48.000
Wilcoxon W 93.000
Z -.430
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) .667
Exact Sig. [2*(1-tailed Sig.)] .702b

a. Grouping Variable: group

b. Not corrected for ties.

(i) State three assumptions that need to be considered before conducting

Mann-Whitney U test.
[Nyatakan tiga andaian yang perlu diambil kira sebelum menjalankan ujian Mann-
Whitney U.]
(3 Marks / Markah)

(ii) Based on the information in the above tables, determine whether there
is a difference in the discipline level between the two groups of
workers.
[Berdasarkan maklumat di dalam jadual-jadual di atas, tentukan sama ada terdapat
perbezaan tahap disiplin di antara kedua-dua kumpulan pekerja tersebut.]
(5 Marks / Markah)

….8/-

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Question 3
Soalan 3

A lecturer wishes to compare the midterm examination score for Engineering

Entrepreneurship (EE) and International Business (IB) programs. Initial studies show
differences in the mean score between male and female students. Another factor that
being considered is the grouping factor for EE (21A, 21B, 21C and 21D) and for IB
(22A, 22B, 22C and 22D). The lecturer collected the score of EE and IB students
randomly based on their gender and groups. The analysis output is shown as below:
[Seorang pensyarah berhasrat untuk membandingkan skor peperiksaan pertengahan semester bagi
program Kejuruteraan Keusahawanan (EE) dan Perniagaan Antarabangsa (IB). Kajian awal
menunjukkan perbezaan min skor di antara pelajar lelaki dan perempuan. Faktor lain yang turut
diambil kira adalah faktor kumpulan bagi EE (21A, 21B, 21C dan 21D) dan IB (22A, 22B, 22C dan
22D). Pensyarah tersebut mengumpulkan markah pelajar EE dan IB secara rawak berdasarkan
jantina dan kumpulan mereka. Output analisis adalah seperti yang ditunjukkan di bawah:]

Table 10
[Jadual 10]
Descriptive Statistics

Mean Std. Deviation N

M_21A 29.16 12.907 19

F_21A 30.42 10.839 19
M_21B 32.32 10.050 19
F_21B 29.00 13.153 19
M_21C 28.68 11.255 19
F_21C 28.32 13.598 19
M_21D 25.58 12.371 19
F_21D 30.84 11.543 19
M_22A 30.42 11.087 19
F_22A 29.11 9.243 19
M_22B 24.95 12.425 19
F_22B 27.05 11.208 19
M_22C 30.53 13.834 19
F_22C 26.47 13.176 19
M_22D 31.26 10.471 19
F_22D 27.32 11.790 19

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Table 11
[Jadual 11]

Tests of Within-Subjects Effects

Source Type III Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

Gender 61.740 A D G .621
Error(Gender) 4399.947 18 244.442
Groups 203.918 B E H .983
Error(Groups) 17552.395 126 139.305
Gender *
1011.234 C F I .355
Groups
Error(Gender*
16259.579 126 129.044
Groups)

(a) Complete Table 11 by calculating the values of A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H and I.

[Lengkapkan Jadual 12 dengan mengira nilai-nilai A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H dan I.]
(10 Marks / Markah)

(b) Determine whether differences in gender influence students’ score. Test

at α = 0.05 .
[Tentukan sama ada perbezaan jantina mempengaruhi skor pelajar-pelajar. Uji pada
α=0.05.]
(5 Marks / Markah)

(c) Determine whether the mean score for each group are equal. Test at 0.05
significance level.
[Tentukan sama ada min markah bagi setiap kumpulan adalah sama.. Uji pada aras keertian
0.05.]
(5 Marks / Markah)

(d) Determine whether the influence of gender on midterm examination score

depends on their grouping factor. Test at 0.05 significance level.
[Tentukan sama ada pengaruh jantina terhadap skor peperiksaan pertengahan bergantung
pada faktor kumpulan. Uji pada aras keertian 0.05.]
(5 Marks / Markah)

….10/-

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Question 4
Soalan 4

The Instant Stationary Supply Company sells and delivers office supplies to
companies, schools, and agencies. The office supply business is competitive, and the
ability to deliver orders punctually is a big factor in getting new customers and
maintaining old ones. The manager of the company wants to be certain that enough
drivers and vehicles are available to deliver orders promptly and that they have
adequate inventory in stock. Therefore, the manager wants to forecast the demand for
deliveries during the next month. From the records of previous orders, the
management has accumulated the following data for the past 10 months:
[Syarikat Instant Stationary Supply menjual dan menghantar alatan pejabat kepada syarikat, sekolah,
dan agensi. Perniagaan pembekalan alatan pejabat adalah berdaya saing, dan keupayaan menghantar
pesanan tepat pada masa adalah satu faktor penting dalam mendapatkan pelanggan baru dan
mengekalkan pelanggan lama. Pengurus syarikat mahu memastikan bahawa bilangan pemandu dan
kenderaan adalah mencukupi untuk penghantaran pesanan segera, serta stok yang mencukupi. Oleh
itu, pengurus tersebut mahu meramal permintaan untuk penghantaran pada bulan yang seterusnya.
Daripada rekod pesanan-pesanan yang sebelumnya, pihak pengurusan telah mengumpulkan data
berikut bagi 10 bulan yang lepas:]

Table 12
[Jadual 12]
Month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct.
[Bulan]
Orders 120 90 100 75 110 50 75 130 110 90
[Permintaan]

(a) Forecasts the monthly demand for February through November using the
Naïve method.
[Ramakan permintaan bulanan untuk Februari hingga November menggunakan kaedah
Naïve.]
(5 Marks / Markah)

(b) By using a 3-month moving average, forecast the monthly demand forecast
from April to November.
[Dengan menggunakan pergerakan purata 3 bulan, ramalkan permintaan bulanan daripada
April hingga November.]
(4 Marks / Markah)

(c) Compute the monthly demand forecast for June through November using a 5-
month moving average.
[Kira ramalan permintaan bulanan untuk April hingga November menggunakan pergerakan
purata 5 bulan.]
(3 Marks / Markah)

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(d) Compute the monthly demand forecast for April through November using a 3-
month weighted moving average. Use three different weights (0.5, 0.33, and
0.17), with the heavier weights on the more recent months.
[Kira ramalan permintaan bulanan untuk April hingga November menggunakan pergerakan
purata 3 bulan. Gunakan tiga pemberat berbeza (0.5, 0.33 dan 0.17), dengan pemberat yang
lebih untuk bulan yang terkini.]
(9 Marks / Markah)

(e) Based on the results in (a), (b), (c), and (d) above, determine the Mean
Absolute Deviation (MAD) of demand from June to October. Decide the best
method to forecast the demand for November.
[Berdasarkan keputusan di (a), (b), (c), dan (d) di atas, tentukan Min Sisihan Mutlak (MAD)
daripada Jun hingga Oktober. Tentukan kaedah terbaik untuk meramal permintaan bagi
bulan November.]
(4 Marks / Markah)

-ooOooo-

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APPENDIX

Simple Linear Regression

ŷ βˆ + βˆ x
= 0 1

Time-Series Forecasting
Ft +1 = Dt
Dt + Dt −1 + Dt − 2 + ... + Dt − k
Ft +1 =
k +1
Ft +=
1 w1 Dt + w2 Dt −1 + w3 Dt − 2 + ... + wi Dt − k

=
MAD
∑ | E | ; E=
t
Dt − Ft
t
n

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