Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Grecia Nos Lo Dio Grecia Nos Lo Quitó ¿Latinoamérica Nos Lo Devolvió?
Grecia Nos Lo Dio Grecia Nos Lo Quitó ¿Latinoamérica Nos Lo Devolvió?
Cole_Thomas_The_Consummation_The_Course_of_the_Empire_1836.jpg
...a la Ruina sólo media un instante
907
721
600 600
450 466
437
413
http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm
El europeo tiene 4 veces la renta per capita de un chino.
5,107
5000
4,531
4000
3,786
3000
2,464
2000
1,347
1,108
1000 934
819
709
563
436
240 316
160 202
97 92
0
1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1850 1870 1890 1900 1913 1930 1950 1970 1990 2000 2008
http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm
Sin embargo… Europa y el prestigio intelectual del fracaso
Agenda
If economic or revenue trends substantially falter, we could lower the state rating
during the next six to 12 months," S&P said after cutting the rating on $63.9
billion of California's general obligation debt one notch to A- from A. The new
level is four notches above "junk“..
California already had the lowest debt rating of any U.S. state. California's
government resorted to issuing IOUs last year for the second time since the Great
Depression
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1322681620100114
Debt Crisis in the Paradise
“Investors are voting with their feet and they are coming to America,” said Peter
Demirali, head of the fixed-income department at Cumberland Advisors in
Vineland, New Jersey, which manages $1.4 billion. “They are saying that they will
lend a billion dollars to California, no problem.”
California’s constitution gives debt service priority on the $88 billion general fund,
second only to education. The state has never missed a bond payment. Debt service
as a ratio of the general fund is 6.7 percent, according to Treasurer Bill Lockyer.
California’s $18.6 billion deficit is about 1 percent of the state’s $1.8 trillion gross
state product, while Greece’s budget deficit equals 12.7 percent of its gross
domestic product, the biggest in the euro region.
Moody’s Investors Service rates California’s debt Baa1, its third-lowest level of
investment
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-01/california-debt-beats-greece-s-
in-bond-sales-credit-markets.html
1
Debt Crisis in the Paradise…y en su Financiador¡¡
95
93
90
85
83
Deuda/PIB
80
80
75 74
70 71
65
62 62 63
61 61 62
60 61 62 62
60 60 61 59
57
55 55
50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1
¿ Por qué?
27%
21%
17%
11%
6%
4%
3%
3%
2% 2% 2%
1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
202
109 113
100 102 105
98
91 93
84
73 77
66 67 71
43
17.6
Bp c/c- Bill US $ Unemployement Rate
14.8
1999-2010 1999-2010
11.7
111 10.5
9.8 10.0
7.7
6.9 7.1 7.2
35 4.9
3.8 4.2 4.3
9 7 5 -16 -23 2.7 3.0
3 -1 -1 -4 -5
-3
0
-32
-68
-2.0
-2.1 -2.4
-3.1 -3.2
-3.6 -4.4
-4.5
-4.9
-5.8
1000
500 420
86 105
41 63
0
-34 -17 -10 -4
-61 -52
-198
-275
-382
-500
-815
-1000
1
Aunque la procesión va por dentro
Diferencial Crecimiento Costes laborales Unitarios con Alemania
1999-2010
49%
39%
29%
9% 10%
5%
0%
-10%
-21%
1
Europa tiene un Problema…
05/13/2010
ddp
German Chancellor Angela Merkel: "greatest test for Europe since the collapse of
communism"
6.2
4.3
3.2
2.8
2.5
1.9
Agenda
8.4
8.0
7.5
7.2
6.4 6.3
6.0 5.9
4.7
3.9 3.7 3.9
4.0
2.8 3.2 3.3
2.4 2.9 2.7
2.0 1.7
1.3 0.6 1.3
0.2
0.0
-0.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
-4.0
-4.4
-5.8
-6.0
-6.8
-6.6
-8.0 -7.6 -8.4
-10.0
El Pib mundial crece en Q2 2010 al 3.9%, con los Desarrollados al 3.3% y los Emergentes al 5.9%
2
5.0
3.3
1.4
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/index.aspx
-8.5
La mediana de crecimiento mundial es de 3.3%.
2
Sólo 18 países con previsiones de crecimiento negativo en 2010
Agenda
IMF Forecast: Countries with Negative 2010 Growth.
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4 -0.5 -0.5
-0.7
-1.0 -1.0
-2.6
-2.8
-3.0
9 European Countries
-4.0
5 Caribbean Island
2 Latin America
1 Africa
1 Pacific Asia
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/index.aspx -8.5
2
Es Europa lo suficientemente grande como para descarrilar la Recuperacion
Agenda
Mundial?. Desde luego que NO en términos de PIB
GDP Change 2009-2005.
Billion US $ PPP
4500
4,135
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1,607
1500 1,374
1000
500 400
290 276 249
195 180 180 160 155 154 146 145 141 129
120 118 116 113 109 95 85 82 70 65 63 50
0 47 10 1
0
Argentina
Korea
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Country
Iran
Australia
Egypt
Brazil
Mexico
Portugal
France
Poland
Peru
Chile
Greece
Russia
Canada
China
India
Indonesia
Germany
Spain
Nigeria
United Kingdom
Vietnam
Japan
Thailand
Colombia
United States
Italy
Pakistan
Taiwan
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 29 30 32 36 38 83 149
% 6% 5% 1% 3%
Entre 2005 y 2009, Brasil, Mexico, Argentina, Perú y Chile aportaron más Pib al
crecimiento mundial que España
2
Pero hay otros canales de contagio….
S&P 500
1,400
1,305
1,300
1,217
1,200
We are back to January 2010 levels…and 60% higher than in March
1,100 2009.
1,063
Título del eje
1,043 1,072
1,000
900
881
800
752
700
677
600
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=05&b=30&c=2008&d=04&e=21&f=2010&g=d
La regla histórica es que cada 10% de caída permanente de la Bolsa recorta el Pib USA un 0.25%.
3
Los Canales de Contagio: Un problema “Financiero” serio…
Consolidated foreign claims of reporting banks
Total
foreign European France Germany Japan United United Total G-7
Trillion US $ claims banks Kingdom States Us MM
All countries 30,469 19,460 3,773 3,302 2,428 3,644 2,493 17,359
Developed countries 23,859 15,093 3,144 2,744 1,813 2,465 1,650 13,154
Europe 16,026 10,405 2,301 2,059 797 1,087 1,237 8,273
Greece 236 189 75 45 6 15 17 165
Ireland 867 635 60 184 30 188 59 539
Italy 1,418 1,033 511 190 53 77 54 885
Portugal 286 241 45 47 4 24 5 133
Spain 1,146 851 220 238 28 114 53 684
Southern Europe 3,953 2,948 911 704 122 418 187 2,405
% Claims 13% 15% 24% 21% 5% 11% 7% 14%
http://www.bis.org/statistics/pcsv/panx9b.csv
•
La Periferia Europea supone el 13% de los activos externos de los Bancos que reportan al BIS y el 15% de los activos externos
de los Bancos Europeos.
•
La Periferia Europea acumula el 24% de los activos externos de los Bancos Franceses, el 21% de los Bancos alemanes, el 11% de
los de UK y el 7% de los bancos USA.
•
Grecia y Portugal son riesgos menores…pero Irlanda, Italia y España son asuntos sistémicos
3
¿ Qué enseña la Historia?
QueAgenda
los Defaults Soberanos nunca vienen solos
Agenda
Eurozone members and the IMF have agreed a 110bn-euro (£95bn; $146.2bn)
three-year bail-out package to rescue Greece's embattled economy.
In return for the loans, Greece will make major austerity cuts which Prime Minister
George Papandreou said involved "great sacrifices".
The EU will provide 80bn euros in funding and the rest will come from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).
The deal is designed to prevent Greece from defaulting on its massive debt.
The leaders of the 16-nation Eurogroup will hold a summit in Brussels on Friday to
"draw initial conclusions from the Greek crisis", he added.
3
Julio 2010: Los Stress Tests
18
¿La solución? Transparencia y Re -estructuración
More European banks face stress tests to assess their health, officials
acknowledged yesterday, amid warnings that publishing detailed test results for
the continent's biggest financial institutions may not fully quell investor concerns.
European Union leaders have agreed to publish stress test results for 26 banks next
month - an unprecedented attempt to restore market confidence battered by weeks of
worry about high levels of eurozone sovereign debt.
The euro, stock markets and some European bond markets rose yesterday in response to
the agreement, but doubts persisted about the detail of the tests. Analysts were unsure
whether results would be published bank-by-bank and how credible tests would be.
Concern also surrounds the health of Europe's large number of smaller banks that
are not covered by stress tests.
16.09.2010
(...) For three decades or so after 1945, the three R’s learned during the
Depression – regulation (above all of the financial sector), reflation (when
needed) and redistribution – were used by social democracies to provide
workers with the security they so badly craved. The strategy was so
successful that voters eventually took this security for granted.
Over the past thirty years, a backlash has swept away much of this
postwar political consensus. The supposed competitive pressures of
globalization were used as an excuse to undermine welfare protections,
even as globalization increased the need for them by contributing to a
widening income distribution. And the financial sector was extensively
Our Great Recession has strengthened the political extremes.
deregulated, which explains the mess we’re in today.
Thankfully, the third R was not forgotten. The reflationary policies A recent study by Markus Brückner and Hans P Grüne found that a one
adopted in 2009 are the main reason we avoided a second Great percentage point decline in economic growth was associated with a one
Depression. percentage point increase in the share of extremist parties in 16 OECD
countries between 1970 and 2002.
However, their initial success has bred a dangerous complacency, while
the right used the Greek crisis of 2010 far more effectively than the left To quote Tony Judt: “why have we been in such a hurry to tear down the
used the disasters of 2008. The result is a variety of austerity packages dikes laboriously set in place by our predecessors? Are we so sure that
which threaten the fragile Western recovery. there are no floods to come?”
http://www.eurointelligence.com/index.php?
id=581&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=2895&tx_ttnews[backPid]=901&cHash=50b4
05da12
¿ Imposibles Trinidades? 3
La Imposible Trinidad de Darhendorf
http://www.project-
syndicate.org/commentary/rodrik43/English
“Sabemos lo que tenemos que hacer. Lo que no sabemos es cómo conseguir que nos re -elijan si hacemos lo
que debemos”
Jean-Claude Juncker,
Ex Prime Minister of Luxembourg and ex President of the Council of the European Union
4
Agenda
Refutar a Kafka…
Faster growth, low inflation, expanding credit and liberal trade are helping to create a new middle class
4
Las Clases Medias de Latam son consecuencia y motor del cambio
Octavio Paz
Los Hijos del Limo, 1987
4
La consolidación de la Democracia y la mejora de las Instituciones han dado
Agenda
pie a una mejora significativa del Crecimiento del Continente.
Country 1980-2010 1980-1990 1991-2002 2003-2008 2009-2010E
Argentina 2.5 -0.9 2.3 8.5 4.2
Brazil 2.8 2.3 2.5 4.2 3.7
Chile 4.6 3.6 5.9 4.7 1.8
Colombia 3.4 3.5 2.7 5.0 2.8
Mexico 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.1 -0.8
Peru 3.2 0.1 3.8 7.0 4.6
Uruguay 2.6 1.4 1.6 5.7 5.7
Venezuela 2.0 0.7 1.4 7.3 -2.3
16 14 13 16 13
17 20
22
44
48
50
55 52
55 51
55
24
22
20
17 21
19 19
14
16 17 19
12 9 11 9 10
CLASEMEDIERO:
Pobre no más, desarrollado aún no.
Clasemediero. Pobre no más, desarrollado aún no.
CIDAC 2010
México se está convirtiendo en una sociedad de clase media. Si bien no hay un entendimiento único
sobre qué constituye la clase media, no hay duda alguna que una parte muy significativa de la
población mexicana se comporta y percibe como tal. Diversos indicadores evidencian la transformación
en esa dirección: el tráfico en las ciudades, el tipo de empleo, la venta de casas, la proporción de
mujeres en la fuerza laboral, la compra de seguros, las salas de cine, el turismo, y muchos más.
Este libro reúne datos y estadísticas que muestran cómo la sociedad mexicana se ha transformado de
manera fundamental: a una con fuerte sentido de propiedad, de pertenencia y, sobre todo, de derecho a
preservar lo que tanto esfuerzo le ha costado alcanzar. Las implicaciones de este cambio son
inconmensurables y tendrán, entre sus muchas consecuencias, una sociedad que cada vez desee
mayor estabilidad y exija más cuentas a sus autoridades.
El desarrollo de la clase media en México, como esencia del desarrollo y de la estabilidad política del
país, se trata del evento histórico más significativo de las últimas décadas. Por lo tanto, la
consolidación de este sector es quizá el tema más importante para el futuro de México
http://www.cidac.org/
4
España y Portugal).
bastante ■
Dos idiomas: Español y Portugués
homogéneo ■
La raza no es una cuestión identitaria en más del 90%
de la población
■
Sin conflictos bélicos externos o intra-regionales
abiertos. Aunque con un grave problema: el
narcotráfico y el crimen organizado.
Un continente ganador
para el siglo XXI
Complementariedad
China-Latinoamérica ■
De las 8 primeras partidas de importación de China,
5 son commodities: petróleo, acero, mineral de hierro,
gasolinas y fuels, y soja.
■
La región tiene la condición de convertirse en el
oferente marginal.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com
/2010/09/15/travel-tomorrow/
5