November 20

INDONESIA’S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS REPORT 2018

Indonesia balance payments (BOP) recorded a deficit in

billion USD billion USD
the third quarter of 2018 because the capital and financial
20 150
account surplus was insufficient
15
120
10

90
to fully offset the larger current account deficit. The 5

0 -
current account deficit increased to 3.37% of GDP 60
5 -
in the reporting period, primarily driven by a decline 10 30

in the goods trade performance, specifically a bum -15

0
p in the oil and gas trade deficit, coupled with
Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**

Q3

Q3
Q1

Q3

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q4

Q2

Q4

Q2

Q4

Q2

Q4

Q2

Q4
Q1

Q3
Q

Q
2Q

Q
2

2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

lacklustre gains in the non-oil and gas trade

* provisional figures
Cap & Fin Account Curr. Account
surplus. The current account deficit was also ** very provisional figures
Overall Balance Reserve Assets (RHS)
Chart 1
exacerbated by a growing services trade deficit, led
by transportation services, in line with an surge of
goods and the hajj pilgrimage. Meanwhile, the CURRENT ACCOUNT

capital and financial account recorded a significant
surplus, reflecting strong investor confidence in the
domestic economic outlook and supported by an
increase in the net inflow of direct investment
capital. In addition, non-resident investors booked a
net inflow to tradeable government securities (SBN)
and the corporate sector was inclined to borrow
offshore. Notwithstanding, the capital and financial
account surplus was inadequate to fully offset the
current account deficit, leading to an overall deficit
in the balance of payments totalling USD4.4 billion.
Consequently, the position of reserve assets at the
end of September 2018 stood at USD114.8 billion,
equivalent to 6.3 months of imports and servicing
government external debt, which is well above the
international standard of three months of imports
(Chart 1).
During the third quarter of 2018, the current
account deficit increased on stronger domestic
demand. The current account deficit was recorded
at USD8.8 billion in the reporting period, or 3.37%
of GDP, increasing from USD8.0 billion in the
previous period or 3.02% of GDP. Cumulatively, the
current account deficit stood at 2.86% of GDP as of
the third quarter of 2018.
The larger current account deficit was caused by
a decline in the goods trade performance combined
with an increase in the services trade deficit. The
goods trade balance reversed the previous surplus to
record a deficit in the reporting period due to a larger
oil and gas trade deficit, while only limited gains were
achieved in the non-oil and gas trade surplus. A surge
of oil imports against rising global oil prices contributed
to the wider oil and gas trade deficit.

3
 On the other hand, improvements in the non-oil An increase in the oil and gas trade deficit
and gas trade surplus were restrained by remained amid a relatively stable non-oil and gas trade
high non-oil and gas imports in response to stronger surplus precipitated the goods trade deficit.

domestic demand along with subdued non-oil and

The goods trade deficit recorded in the third
gas export growth. The larger current account deficit
quarter of 2018 also contradicted the USD5.3 billion
also stemmed from an increase in the services trade
surplus registered in the same period one year
deficit, particularly transportation services, in line
earlier due to faster import growth, particularly oil
with goods imports and the hajj pilgrimage.
and gas imports, together with sluggish export
Nevertheless, a larger current account deficit was
performance. Import growth has surged in line with
negated by a growth surge of manufacturing exports
the higher global oil price and the ongoing build-up
together with an increasing travel services trade
of domestic economic activity, while slower growth
surplus as the number of international travellers
of world trade volume and sliding international
visiting Indonesia increased, particularly to attend
commodity prices have undermined export growth.
the Asian Games held in Jakarta and Palembang.
Non-Oil and Gas Trade Balance
The current account deficit registered in the
third quarter of 2018 was also larger than the deficit The non-oil and gas trade balance recorded a
recorded in the same period one year ago totalling
USD3.1 billion surplus in the third quarter of 2018,
USD4.6 billion (1.75% of GDP) due to a narrower
up slightly on the previous period as non-oil and gas
non-oil and gas trade surplus and increasing oil and
export growth was negated by non-oil and gas
gas trade deficit (Chart 2).
imports. Furthermore, the current non-oil and gas
Q

Q
1

billion trade surplus was also lower than the USD6.5

USD 15
billion surplus recorded in the same period one year
10 5 0 -
ago due to a growth surge of non-oil and gas
5 -10 -

15 -20
imports (Chart 3).
Q

Q
2

billion USD billion USD

50 12
40
10
30
Q

Q
1

3
*

*
*

20
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018 10
Q

Q
1

0 6
* provisional figures Secondary Inc. Primary Inc.
** very provisional figures Services OG Trade Balance -10
NOG Trade Balance Curr. Account -20
4
Chart 2 -30
Current Account 2
-40
-50 0
Q

Q
2

Q
1

3
*

*
*
Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1

Goods Trade Balance

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

The goods trade balance reversed the USD0.3 Imports Exports NOG Trade Balance (RHS)
* provisional figures ** very provisional figures
billion surplus recorded in the previous period to Chart 3
post a USD0.4 billion deficit in the third quarter of Non-oil and Gas Trade Balance

2018.

4
Non-Oil and Gas Exports
(%)
30.0
Non-oil and gas exports stood at USD43.1 25.0 25.0
billion in the third quarter of 2018, increasing 9.6% 20.0
15.0
(qtq) on the USD39.3 billion recorded in the second 10.6 9.9 9.6
10.0 9.0
quarter of 2018 (Chart 4). 5.0
0.0
Annually, non-oil and gas export growth -5.0 -2.4
-10.0
decelerated to 9.0% (yoy) in the third quarter of -15.0
-20.0
2018 from 9.9% (yoy) in the previous period due to Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**
a deeper real export contraction, particularly exports 2015 2016 2017* 2018

of primary goods. On the other hand, export prices y.o.y q.t.q

maintained stable growth (Table 1). Chart 4

Non-oil and Gas Export Growth

Table 1
Non-Oil and Gas Exports by Commodity Group (based on SITC)

Shares (%) Growth (% yoy)

2017* 2018
Description
2017* 2018**
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1* Q2* Q3**

A. Primary Product
Nominal 52.0 50.9 41.8 27.4 34.6 13.9 28.0 7.8 9.4 7.3
Real 54.9 53.1 10.7 8.0 16.5 -0.3 7.9 -0.9 -3.5 -4.8
Price Index - - 28.1 18.0 15.5 14.2 18.7 8.8 13.4 12.8
Agricultural Products
Nominal 31.6 27.7 45.2 21.2 33.0 4.7 24.1 -9.2 -5.0 -1.0
Real 35.3 34.2 19.0 17.4 33.0 2.4 16.6 -4.2 -6.0 -0.8
Price Index - - 22.0 3.2 0.0 2.2 6.4 -5.1 1.1 -0.2
Foods
Nominal 24.3 21.1 42.7 17.8 28.6 -1.1 19.7 -9.5 -5.2 -1.3
Real 27.3 26.6 18.6 20.3 34.3 -0.7 16.3 -4.1 -6.9 1.1
Price Index - - 20.3 -2.1 -4.2 -0.4 2.9 -5.6 1.8 -2.4
Raw Materials
Nominal 7.4 6.6 54.4 33.3 49.1 30.8 41.3 -8.2 -4.3 0.0
Real 8.0 7.7 21.4 9.6 28.8 15.9 18.5 -4.9 -3.5 -5.9
Price Index - - 27.1 21.7 15.7 12.9 19.3 -3.4 -0.8 6.3
Fuels & Mining Products
Nominal 20.3 23.2 35.7 38.3 37.3 29.4 34.7 39.5 31.8 20.0
Real 20.0 20.4 -1.8 -4.2 -2.4 -0.9 -2.4 11.2 5.8 -4.2
Price Index - - 38.3 44.4 40.6 30.5 38.0 25.4 24.6 25.2
B. Manufacture Products
Nominal 46.4 47.4 6.1 -7.3 15.2 9.6 5.5 9.7 9.8 11.1
Real 43.7 45.1 -3.7 -16.5 5.4 -0.4 -4.2 0.9 1.5 1.8
Price Index - - 10.2 11.1 9.3 10.0 10.1 8.8 8.2 9.2
C. Others
Nominal 1.6 1.7 0.7 15.7 50.2 42.7 28.0 65.4 31.2 -2.3
Real 1.7 2.0 -2.9 15.4 57.8 36.8 27.1 51.7 26.3 1.8
Price Index - - 3.7 0.2 -4.8 4.3 0.7 9.0 3.9 -4.0
Total
Nominal 100.0 100.0 21.9 8.1 25.0 12.3 16.5 9.4 9.9 9.0
Riil 100.0 100.0 3.7 -4.7 11.9 0.3 2.6 0.6 -0.7 -1.7
Price Index - - 17.6 13.4 11.7 12.0 13.6 8.8 10.7 10.8
*) provisional figures
**) very provisional figures

5
 Non-Oil and Gas Exports by Major Destination increased to fuel additional coal-fired power stations
Country built in Japan.

Non-oil a major Exports to Singapore suffered a deeper

trading partners grew 10.7% (yoy) in the third quarter contraction due to slower export growth of articles
of 2018, down from 12.1% (yoy) in the second quarter of basic metals and processed foods as well as
of 2018, in line with economic moderation in several decreasing exports of chemicals, accounting for
trading partners. The slower pace of export growth 18.2% of total non-oil and gas exports to Singapore.
was seen in In contrast, exports of electrical equipment, as the
partners (Table 2). dominant non-oil and gas export commodity to

Table 2
Singapore, increased in the reporting period.
Non-Oil and Gas Exports by Major Destination Country
Weaker export performance to Malaysia was
Shares (%) Growth (%, yoy)
attributable to slower coal exports, coupled with
Description 2017* 2018
2017* 2018** export contractions affecting articles of basic metals
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1* Q2* Q3**

1 China 14.0 15.1 66.6 35.0 48.5 26.4 41.1 34.7 33.7 14.5 and processed foods, which accounted for 42.0% of
2 USA 11.2 10.7 18.1 -4.0 19.9 5.7 9.3 3.1 1.5 4.1
3 Japan 9.6 10.2 4.3 3.6 26.8 11.2 11.4 21.1 21.6 12.5 total non-oil and gas exports to Malaysia. On the
4 India 9.1 8.2 60.7 47.7 33.9 25.0 40.2 -5.9 -10.9 13.3
5 Singapore 5.8 5.4 -5.0 -8.1 20.5 8.3 3.4 13.3 -0.7 -10.8 other hand, vegetable oil exports (10.3% share) to
6 Malaysia 4.6 4.8 24.0 11.9 32.6 10.0 18.9 10.3 15.4 14.4
7 South Korea 4.1 4.5 28.6 14.8 19.7 17.9 20.1 4.4 17.5 34.2
Malaysia achieved significant growth after
8 Philipines 4.3 4.2 46.5 11.8 21.2 29.0 25.7 6.6 16.8 6.3
9 Thailand 3.5 3.6 18.3 11.1 29.0 13.1 17.7 15.7 7.7 3.6
contracting for three consecutive periods, driven by
10 Vietnam 2.3 2.6 31.3 23.6 29.2 -0.6 18.3 15.5 22.5 32.4
increasing palm oil production.
Total 10 Countries 68.4 69.3 27.9 13.3 29.3 15.9 21.2 13.1 12.1 10.7
*) provisional figures
**) very provisional figures
Slower growth of exports to Philippines
affected by weaker exports growth of vehicles &
Non-oil and gas exports destined to China
parts as well as processed foods, and contraction of
experienced slower growth in the third quarter of 2018
copper ore exports which contribute 44.2% of total
due to export contractions affecting coal and vegetable
non-oil and gas exports to Philippines. Meanwhile,
oil, along with weaker export growth of articles of basic
coal exports (22.0% share) keep increasing.
metals. Those three commodities accounted for 48.7%
of total non-oil and gas exports to China. The coal
Slower growth of non-oil and gas exports to
export contraction was prompted by import restrictions
Thailand in the reporting period was triggered by an
imposed in China to protect the domestic
export contraction affecting articles of basic metals
along with fewer shipments of machinery and
calorie coal than what is supplied by Indonesia. mechanical appliances, which accounted for 21.4% of
Further non-oil and gas export declines to China total non-oil and gas exports to Thailand. Conversely,
were offset, however, by a significant increase in exports of coal as well as motor vehicles and
copper ore exports to meet strong metal demand components (34.2% share) continued to accelerate.
from China to meet domestic consumption.
Bucking the pervasive downward trend, exports to
A contraction of copper ore exports, accounting the United States (US) accelerated compared with
for 8.6% of total non-oil and gas exports to Japan, was conditions in the previous period, driven by rising
the main drag on exports to Japan in the reporting consignments of textiles and footwear, and a shallower
period. Nonetheless, further moderation was negated declining of processed natural rubber. The three
by faster export growth of coal, electrical equipment as commodities account for 51.6% of total non-oil and gas
well as textiles (34.6% share of the total). Coal exports exports to the United States. However, further

6
export gains were stifled by slower export growth of gas exports to South Korea). Article of basic metal
processed foods. and copper ore exports from Indonesia were used
to fuel increasing manufacturing production in South
After two consecutive quarters of contraction,
Korea. In contrast, coal and textile exports (37.4%
non-oil and gas exports to India achieved significant
share) posted slower growth.
growth in the reporting period on the back of coal
shipments, consistent with lower Indonesian coal Non-oil and gas exports to Vietnam also
prices. In addition, more exports of processed enjoyed buoyant growth in the reporting period,
rubber together with a shallower export contraction induced by motor vehicles and components as well
of vegetable oil, occasioned by dwindling domestic as electrical aparatus (accounting for 17.3% of total
supply due to fewer imports in the previous period, non-oil and gas exports to Vietnam). Further export
were also a boon for non-oil and gas exports gains were curbed, however, by slower export
destined to India. On the other hand, exports of growth affecting coal and article of basic metals.
articles of basic metals maintained solid growth
despite moderating compare to the previous period. Exports of Major Non-Oil and Gas Commodities
The four commodities accounted for 76.2% of total
Non-oil and gas export growth of the ten major
non-oil and gas exports to India.
commodities during the third quarter of 2018
Non-oil and gas exports to South Korea also accelerated to 8.6% (yoy) from 7.2% (yoy) in the
accelerated compared to the previous period, led by previous period. The uptick was predominantly due
strong export growth of articles of basic metals and to improving real exports and rising prices of
copper ores (accounting for 21.4% of total non-oil and several major commodities (Table 3).

Table 3
Exports of Major Non-Oil and Gas Commodities (based on HS)

Growth (%,yoy)
Share (%)
Nominal Real Price Index
Description 2017* 2018 2017* 2018 2017* 2018
2017* 2018** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1* Q2* Q3** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1* Q2* Q3** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1* Q2* Q3**

1. Coal
2. Vegetable Oil
3. Textile & Textile Products
4. Articles of Basic Metals
5. Electrical Aparatus, etc
6. Processed Foods
7. Vehicles & Parts
8. Processed Rubber
9. Machinery & Mechanical Appl.
10. Footwear
Total 10 Commodities 68.7 68.5
*) provisional figures **) very provisional figures
13.3 14.7 45.0 48.7 45.5 27.2 40.4 27.0 21.2 19.8 4.2 2.2 0.7 -0.3 1.3 6.0 0.5 -5.2 39.2 45.6 44.4 27.7 38.5 19.8 20.7 26.4
14.3 11.8 62.5 29.3 34.2 -5.5 25.7 -18.3 -11.2 -4.1 16.2 26.4 36.3 -3.5 16.3 -4.5 -3.6 11.9 39.9 2.3 -1.5 -2.0 8.1 -14.5 -7.9 -14.3
8.2 8.2 4.1 -11.1 23.4 10.2 5.9 7.9 8.1 6.0 -6.7 -20.7 9.3 0.4 -5.1 0.2 -0.5 -3.2 11.6 12.1 12.9 9.8 11.6 7.7 8.6 9.5
6.2 7.7 32.0 13.6 29.4 35.7 27.7 50.6 46.7 34.0 6.4 -5.6 14.0 19.1 8.5 29.1 21.4 16.9 24.0 20.4 13.5 14.0 17.7 16.7 20.8 14.6
5.8 5.7 5.8 -1.1 15.8 2.1 5.5 3.2 2.8 7.4 -6.1 -16.1 1.2 -13.2 -8.8 -10.6 -4.9 -1.4 12.6 17.9 14.5 17.7 15.7 15.5 8.1 8.9
4.7 4.6 9.6 0.6 20.0 12.1 10.7 9.4 11.0 9.2 5.1 -3.6 16.8 10.8 7.3 5.7 7.6 8.8 4.3 4.4 2.7 1.2 3.1 3.5 3.2 0.4
4.5 5.1 37.1 -0.1 25.8 9.3 16.5 3.8 9.2 11.9 30.1 -6.8 19.0 5.7 10.6 1.9 7.1 11.1 5.3 7.2 5.7 3.3 5.4 1.8 1.9 0.8
4.7 3.9 67.3 29.3 28.1 4.8 30.6 -21.8 -17.6 -6.2 17.9 4.2 14.6 -0.5 8.7 -5.1 -3.0 -1.7 41.8 24.1 11.8 5.3 20.2 -17.6 -15.1 -4.7
3.7 3.8 19.8 -7.8 5.0 13.4 6.7 2.4 -0.9 -3.4 9.6 -16.3 -1.4 3.5 -2.0 -4.7 -6.3 -11.5 9.2 10.2 6.4 9.5 8.8 7.4 5.7 9.1
3.2 3.0 8.1 -7.9 21.2 6.1 5.8 7.0 2.4 3.8 -2.1 -13.4 19.9 11.3 2.7 11.9 3.9 4.3 10.3 6.4 1.1 -4.7 3.0 -4.3 -1.5 -0.6
31.6 12.8 27.8 10.8 20.1 5.2 7.2 8.6 11.5 -1.1 15.7 2.4 6.7 1.4 2.2 2.7 18.1 14.1 10.5 8.2 12.5 3.8 4.9 5.8

7
 As of the third quarter of 2018, coal exports
remained be the dominant non-oil and gas export
commodity from Indonesia replacing vegetable oil,
accounting for a 14.7% share of the total
non-oil and gas export. In the reporting period, coal
exports moderated slightly to 19.8% (yoy) from 21.2%
(yoy) previously due to lower real exports. The
slowdown was primarily the result of declining exports
to China, among other due to import barriers on coal
high-calorie coal. In addition, coal exports to South
Korea also recorded slower growth. Nevertheless,
coal exports to India and Japan continued to
accelerate.
Vegetable oil exports (dominated by crude palm
oil) experienced a shallower contraction in the
reporting period. The smaller contraction was due to
positive growth of real exports after three consecutive
periods of decline. On the other hand, export prices
posted sharper falls under pressure from related edible
oil prices particularly soybean combined with abundant
palm oil stock in Indonesia and Malaysia. The recent
export gains have been driven by vegetable oil exports
to India and the Netherlands, which posted significantly
shallower export declines.
Exports of textiles and textile products (TTP) grew
6.0% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2018, decreasing
from 8.1% (yoy) in the previous period due to a deeper
real export contraction. Slower TTP export growth
stemmed primarily from an export contraction to China
and moderating export growth to South Korea. In
contrast, exports of textiles and textile products to the
United States and Japan accelerated.
Growth of articles of basic metal exports
decelerated in the reporting period to 34.0% (yoy) due
to lower growth of real exports and prices. China and
Japan were the main contributors to slower articles of
basic metal export growth, contrasting the faster pace
of export growth to Taiwan and South Korea.
8
Exports of electrical aparatus accelerated
significantly from 2.8% (yoy) in the second quarter
of 2018 to 7.4% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2018 on
the back of higher growth of export prices and a
shallower real export contraction. The gains were
led by exports to Singapore, Japan, and Thailand.
Processed food exports posted 9.2% (yoy)
growth in the reporting period, down from 11.0%
(yoy) in the second quarter of 2018 due to slower
growth of export prices. Processed food exports
from Indonesia were held back by slower export
growth to the United States and Philippines as well
as declining exports to Malaysia and China.
Exports of vehicles and components improved
on increasing real exports in the reporting period.
Exports accelerated to three main export
destination countries (Thailand, Japan, and
Vietnam) dominating 27.5% of total vehicle exports.
Meanwhile, slower export growth was recorded to
the Philippines, as the dominant export destination
for Indonesian motor vehicles and components.
The ongoing contraction of processed rubber
exports eased in the third quarter of 2018, bolstered
by improving prices and real exports. The shallower
contraction was evident in exports destined to the
United States, Japan, and China, while exports to
India continued to track an upward trend.
A deeper real export contraction was the main
contributor to declining shipments of machinery and
mechanical appliances (-3.4% yoy). The declines
affected exports to Singapore, Japan, and the
United States, while exports to Thailand
experienced slower growth compared to the
conditions in the previous period.
Footwear exports expanded by 3.8% (yoy) in
the third quarter of 2018, improving from 2.4% (yoy)
in the previous period on the back of real exports
and higher export prices. Exports of footwear
soared to the United States, China, and Belgium,
contrasting slower export growth to Japan.
Non-Oil and Gas Imports Table 4
Non-Oil and Gas Imports (c.i.f) by Commodity Group

Non-oil and gas imports (c.i.f) maintained a fast

Shares (%) Growth (% yoy)
pace of growth during the third quarter of 2018 as 2017* 2018
Description
2017* 2018**
domestic demand continued to increase. Non-oil Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1* Q2* Q3**

and gas import grew 10.2% (qtq) in the reporting Consumption Goods
Nominal 10.2 10.6 1.0 19.7 17.4 19.9 14.4 22.3 22.1 36.0
Real 9.2 9.4 -6.7 8.4 2.8 9.9 3.6 8.9 10.9 31.6
period, up significantly from 1.9% (qtq) in the Price Index - - 8.3 10.4 14.2 9.0 10.5 12.3 10.0 3.4
Raw Materials
previous quarter. Nominal 70.0 68.3 9.0 5.6 25.2 17.8 14.3 21.0 17.4 17.2
Real 72.5 69.9 2.1 -2.8 16.2 7.3 5.6 9.6 7.2 11.4
Price Index - - 6.7 8.7 7.8 9.8 8.3 10.4 9.5 5.3
Capital Goods
(%) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 - Nominal 18.8 19.2 6.0 -4.4 24.1 19.6 11.6 26.7 38.2 22.7
20.0 Real 17.5 18.8 -3.6 -10.7 14.6 14.1 3.8 24.1 34.4 26.9
Price Index - - 9.9 7.1 8.3 4.9 7.5 2.1 2.8 -3.4
Total
Nominal 100.0 100.0 8.1 5.2 25.0 17.4 13.9 22.8 23.5 21.2
Real 100.0 100.0 0.5 -3.1 15.1 8.1 5.1 12.9 14.2 17.4
Price Index - - 7.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.8 8.1 3.2
*) provisional figures
**) very provisional figures

Imports of raw materials posted 17.2% (yoy)

growth in the third quarter of 2018, down slightly
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2* Q3**
2015 2016 2017* 2018 from 17.4% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2018 as a
result of slower rising import prices. Meanwhile, real
y.o.y q.t.q
imports tended to accelerate on the back of
Chart 5
Non-oil and Gas Import Growth telecommunication equipment and component
parts. Furthermore, real imports of motor vehicle
Annually, non-oil and gas imports decelerated accessories and components as well as electrical
slightly from 23.4% (yoy) in the second quarter of apparatus for making and breaking electrical circuits
2018 to 21.1% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2018 due maintained positive growth despite moderating.
to slower rising prices, while real imports keep
Imports of capital goods slowed down
accelerated (Chart 5). By taking into account the
significantly to 22.7% (yoy) in the third quarter of
share to the total non-oil and gas imports, import
2018, held back by weaker real import growth and a
growth contributions of raw materials, capital goods,
contraction of import prices. The main drag on
and consumption goods to total growth of non-oil
capital goods imports were imports of automatic
and gas import were 11.8%, 4.3%, and 3.8%
data processing machines, motor vehicles for the
respectively (Table 4).
transports of goods, civil engineering and contractor

Imports of consumption goods spiked plant and equipment, as well as other machines
considerably in the third quarter of 2018 due to a specialized for particular industry. Robust import
growth surge of real imports. Increased imports growth of capital goods was congruent with solid
were primarily on account of rice, fruits, and articles Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) growth of
of plastic. 6.96% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2018.

9
 Non-Oil and Gas Imports by Country of Origin

Q
1

4
billion USD billion USD

15 15
Based on country of origin, faster non-oil and gas
10 10

5 5

major trading partners, led by China. Non-oil and 0 0

-5 -5
gas imports from the 10 major countries of origin
-10 -10
accelerated from 22.8% (yoy) in the second quarter

Q
1

4
-15 -15

Q
of 2018 to 23.2% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2018

3
*

*
*
Q1Q2Q 3Q4Q 1Q2 Q3Q4
(Table 5). 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

Gas Imports Gas Exports

Table 5 * provisional figures
Oil Imports Oil Exports
** very provisional figures
Non-Oil and Gas Imports (c.i.f) OG Trade Balance (RHS)

by Major Country of Origin Chart 6

Oil and Gas Trade Balance

Shares (%) Growth (%, yoy) Oil Exports

Description 2017* 2018
2017* 2018**
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1* Q2* Q3**
In the third quarter of 2018, oil exports remained
1 China 25.5 26.4 7.6 -1.1 22.2 16.8 11.3 25.7 27.9 34.2
2 Japan 11.5 11.4 13.8 5.0 29.7 25.5 18.6 27.8 26.9 12.9 relatively stable at USD2.2 billion, supported by a
3 Singapore 7.3 7.9 14.4 16.0 42.3 30.0 25.8 43.1 39.1 28.4
4 Thailand 6.7 6.7 -11.0 2.3 13.4 15.0 4.2 16.2 20.7 16.6 higher oil price while export volume, particularly of
5 USA 5.8 5.7 10.7 5.4 0.6 7.7 5.9 15.2 21.5 17.3
6 South Korea 5.6 5.0 34.6 16.3 36.2 21.7 26.9 3.6 5.8 7.4 refined products, experienced a decline (Table 6).
7 Malaysia 3.9 3.9 10.4 -9.2 21.3 13.5 8.3 17.4 28.2 20.5
8 Australia & Oceania 4.4 3.8 14.6 7.6 36.4 -2.0 12.7 0.9 -9.3 9.9
9 India 2.8 2.9 29.3 42.9 23.2 31.3 31.4 17.8 23.7 46.7
Indonesia reduced crude oil lifting by 1.5%
10 Germany 2.6 2.6 2.9 11.3 18.2 10.6 10.9 37.1 13.3 19.3
(qtq) in the third quarter of 2018 to 0.780 million
Total 10 Countries 76.0 76.3 10.1 4.9 23.6 17.7 14.1 22.2 22.8 23.2
*) provisional figures barrels per day from 0.791 million barrels per day in
**) very provisional figures
the previous period due to unplanned shutdowns at
Oil and Gas Trade Balance
the Plaju and Dumai wells.

The oil and gas trade balance recorded a USD3.5 Annually, oil exports soared 19.7% (yoy) in the
billion deficit in the third quarter of 2018, increasing on third quarter of 2018 compared with conditions in
the deficits posted in the previous period as well as the same period one year earlier on rising global oil
during the same period last year (Chart 6). prices despite a decline of export volume.
Table 6
Based on granular commodity data, the larger Oil Exports
oil and gas trade deficit in the reporting period was
2018
primarily attributed to a wider oil trade deficit Q2* Q3**
Description
compared with conditions in the previous period and Value Volume Price¹ Value Volume Price¹
(mill USD) (mbbl) (USD/barel) (mill USD) (mbbl) (USD/barel)
the same period in 2017. Meanwhile, the gas trade Exports 2,168.5 29.4 2,203.1 28.7
Crude 1,409.0 19.8 70.7 1,431.5 19.8 72.5
surplus remained stable compared to conditions in
Refinery Products 759.5 9.6 79.2 771.5 8.9 86.7
the previous period despite exceeding the surplus
¹⁾ export value divided by export volume
posted in the third quarter of 2017. Sources: SKK Migas and Pertamina (processed) *

provisional figures ** very provisional figures

10
 Table 7
Meanwhile, the export prices of crude oil and
Oil Imports (f.o.b)
refined products continued to track upward trends,
2018
mirroring global oil prices. The average prices of Q2* Q3**
Description
Value Volume Price¹ Value Volume Price¹
SLC, Brent, WTI, and OPEC increased respectively (mill USD) (mbbl) (USD/barel) (mill USD) (mbbl) (USD/barel)
from USD70.8/barrel, USD74.5/barrel, Imports 6,533.2 83.4 7,323.3 90.0
Crude 2,080.0 28.4 73.2 2,703.4 35.2 76.6
USD67.9/barrel, and USD71.9/barrel in the second Refinery Products 4,453.2 54.9 80.9 4,619.9 54.7 84.5
quarter of 2018 to USD72.5/barrel, USD75.5/barrel, ¹⁾ import value divided by import volume
Sources: SKK Migas and Pertamina (processed)
USD69.7/barrel, and USD74.2/barrel in the third * provisional figures ** very provisional figures

quarter of 2018 (Chart 7). Commitment from OPEC

and Russia to cut production, combined with market
concerns stoked by the possible reinstatement of
US sanctions against Iran has reduced supply and
therefore pushed up the global oil price.
USD/barel
Gas Exports and Imports
Gas exports continued to expand on a quarterly
(6.8% qtq) and annual basis (21.2% yoy) in the
reporting period, with LNG (7.5% qtq) and natural gas
(10.6%, qtq) confirmed as the main contributors due to

140
the higher gas export price (Table 8).
130 Table 8
120
110
Gas Exports
100
90 2018
80 Q2* Q3**
Description
Value Value
70
(mill USD) Volume¹ Price² (mill USD) Volume¹ Price²
60 SLC
Exports 2,296.8 - 2,453.5 -
50 Unit Price
LNG 1,556.5 199.7 7.8 1,673.2 199.9 8.4
40 WTI
Natural Gas 705.3 66.6 10.6 780.2 67.0 11.6
30 OPEC
LPG 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0
20
J AJO J AJO J AJO J AJ O JA J O J AJO J AJO J AJO AJ
Other Gas 34.9 2.4 13.1 0.1 0.0 10.2
J

¹⁾ LNG, natural gas & other gas vol. are in million mmbtu, LPG vol. are in thousand m/t, total vol. are in mmbtu
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
²⁾ LNG & natural gas prices are in USD/million mmbtu, LPG prices are in USD/thousand metric ton

Source: Ditjen Migas, BOP, Bloomberg Source: SKK Migas

* provisional figures ** very provisional figures
Chart 7
International Oil Prices
On the other hand, gas imports increased
Oil Imports 24.2% (qtq) to USD0.8 billion in the third quarter of
2018 from USD0.7 billion in the previous period.
Oil imports grew 12.1% (qtq) from USD6.5 billion
Annually, however, gas imports rose steeply by
in the second quarter of 2018 to USD7.3 billion in the
52.6% (yoy), driven by volume to meet the recent
third quarter of 2018, induced by increasing import
spike in consumption.
prices in line with the rising global oil price and higher
import volume of refined products as domestic fuel Services Trade Balance
consumption increased (Table 7).
The services trade deficit stood at USD2.2
Annually, oil imports soared 59.8% (yoy) from billion in the third quarter of 2018, increasing from
USD4.6 billion in the third quarter of 2017, elevated USD2.0 billion in the previous period on a larger
by a higher import volume and rising oil price. transportation services deficit (Chart 8).

11
 billion USD Travel services payments were recorded at
2
USD2.8 billion in the third quarter of 2018, up from
1
USD2.0 billion in the previous period, prompted by
0
an increase in the number of Indonesian traveller
Q

Q
1

4
-1
visits abroad from 2.39 million in the second quarter
-2

Q
2

4
-3
of 2018 to 2.47 million, coupled with more spending
-4 by Indonesian travellers during the reporting period.

Q
1

3
*

*
*
Q 1 Q 2Q 3 Q 4Q 1 Q 2Q 3 Q 4Q 1 Q 2 Q 3Q 4 Q 1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018 On the other hand, travel services receipts
Other Services Travel Transportation Services (net) climbed to USD4.1 billion in the third quarter of
* provisional figures ** very provisional figures 2018 from USD3.1 billion in the second quarter of
Chart 8
Services Trade Balance 2018. The increase was explained by a 16.6% (qtq)
rise in the number of international traveller visits to
As the dominant contributor to the services Indonesia from 3.17 million to 3.70 million during
trade deficit, transportation services recorded a the reporting period and further bolstered by a
larger deficit in the third quarter of 2018. The higher greater propensity to spend. More international
deficit stemmed from a bump in passenger travellers were drawn to Indonesia during the
transportation services payments in line with an reporting period in order to attend the 2018 Asian
increase in the number of Indonesian traveller visits Games held in Jakarta and Palembang.
abroad, including those making the hajj pilgrimage,
Most international travellers visiting Indonesia
along with a rise in freight services payments
during the third quarter of 2018 originated from
consistent with the import surge of goods (Chart 9).
Malaysia, Singapore, and Australia, with Bali,
Jakarta, and Batam still recognised as the preferred
billion USD billion USD
destinations.
Q

Q
1

0 0.0
-5 Import Freight Import (RHS)
-0.5
-10 billion USD
-15
-1.0 5
-20
4
-25 -1.5
Q

Q
1

3
-30
-2.0 2
-35
1
-40
-2.5 0
-45
-1
Q

Q
2

-50 -3.0
Q

Q
1

3
*

*
*

-2
-3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018
-4
Q

Q
1

3
*

*
*
Q2
Q3
Q 1Q 2Q 3 Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3 Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4 Q 1

Q 4Q 1Q 2 Q 3Q 4 Q 1Q 2 Q 3Q 4

* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018
Chart 9
Freight Services Payments
Imports Exports Travel (net)
* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures
Chart 10
Meanwhile, the travel services trade surplus Travel Services Trade Balance
increased from USD1.1 billion in the second quarter
Primary Income Balance
of 2018 to USD1.3 billion in the third quarter of 2018
on the back of a 30.8% (qtq) uptick in travel services The primary income account recorded a stable
receipts (exports) that outpaced the 38.3% (qtq) USD8.0 billion deficit in the third quarter of 2018
increment in travel services payments (imports) in because the larger direct investment income deficit
the reporting period (Chart 10). was effectively compensated by narrower deficits

12
affecting portfolio investment income and other billion USD
3.0
investment income (Chart 11).
2.5
2.0
The larger direct investment income deficit was 1.5
1.0
influenced by an increase in income payments on

Q
1

4
0.5
equity capital in line with the improving financial 0.0
-0.5
performance of companies listed on the Indonesia -1.0

Q1Q
2Q3

Q1*Q2*Q3**
Q4
Q

Q
1

4
Q

Q
1

4
Stock Exchange. The direct investment income was -1.5

Q1Q2Q3Q4
mostly reinvested that, in turn, boosted direct 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

investment inflows to Indonesia. Meanwhile, the Payments Receipts Personal Transfers (net)

portfolio investment income deficit narrowed on * provisional figures; ** very provisional figures
Chart 12
fewer dividend payments, which surpassed the Personal Transfers

increase in interest payments on government debt

securities following historical trends. In addition, the In the third quarter of 2018, remittances
received from Indonesian migrant workers stood at
smaller other investment income deficit was
USD2.7 billion. By country of origin, Indonesian
primarily attributed to a decline in government and
migrant workers located in the Asia-Pacific region
private interest payments on offshore loans.
were the main contributors of remittances, totalling
billion USD USD1.6 billion, followed by the Middle East and
0 Africa at USD1.1 billion.
-1
-2
-3 At the end of the third quarter of 2018, a total of 3.5
-4
-5
million Indonesians were employed as migrant workers
-6
-7
abroad. Data from the National Board for the Placement
Q

Q
2

-8
and Protection of Overseas Workers (BNP2TKI) indicated
-9
-10
around 70% of Indonesian migrant workers were placed
Q

Q
1

3
*

*
*
Q1Q2Q 3Q4Q 1Q2 Q3Q4 Q1
Q1Q2Q 3Q4Q 1Q2 Q3Q4

Q1Q2Q 3Q4Q 1Q2 Q3Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

in the Asia-Pacific region, dominated by Malaysia, Hong
Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. Meanwhile, the remainder
Direct Inv. Income Other Inv. Income Portfolio Inv. Income Primary Income (net)

* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures were located in the Middle East and Africa, primarily in
Chart 11
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Jordan (Chart
Primary Income Account
13).

Secondary Income Balance

Europe
America 0.2%
The secondary income account recorded a 0.1%

USD1.8 billion surplus in the third quarter of 2018, up

from USD1.6 billion in the previous period. Such Malaysia
53.5%
Middle East &
developments were explained by an increase in private Africa Asia Pacific,
29.8% 69.9%
and government grant receipts associated with the
devastating earthquake on Lombok. In addition,
Taiwan, Brunei,
personal transfer receipts in the form of remittances Other 5.0% 0.8%
1.2%
Hongkong,
from Indonesian migrant workers remained significant, South Korea
5.6%
0.7% Singapore
Source: BNP2TKI
hence becoming the primary source of the secondary 2.7%

Chart 13
income account surplus (Chart 12).
Stock of Indonesian Migrant Workers in Q3/2018

13
 CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
side). Compared with the same period one year ago,
the direct investment surplus has decreased due to
The capital and financial account recorded a
large-scale financing of unicorn start-ups in Indonesia
significant surplus in the third quarter of 2018,
during the third quarter of 2017 (Chart 15).
reflecting strong investor confidence in the domestic
economic outlook. The capital and financial account billion
USD 15
surplus was buoyed by increased influx of direct
10
investment. In addition, non-resident capital inflows to
5

Q
1

1
tradable government securities (SBN) and corporate
0
foreign loans were also regained their upward

Q
2

3
-5
momentum. The overall capital and financial account
-10
surplus amounted to USD4.2 billion in the third quarter
-15
of 2018, reduced from USD4.5 billion in the previous

**
Q

Q
1

3
*

*
Q4Q1Q 2Q3Q 4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4
period due to an increase of domestic private 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018
DI Liabilities DI Asset Direct Investment (net)
placements in offshore deposits and other overseas
* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures

claims by the domestic banking industry (Chart 14). Chart 15

Direct Investment1
billion USD

20
On the asset side, the net outflow of direct
15
investment booked by residents was recorded at
10

5 USD1.9 billion in the reporting period, increasing from

0 USD1.2 billion in the previous period and from USD1.0
-5
billion in the same period one year earlier. The larger
-10
net outflow originated from the acquisition of an
Q

Q
1

-15
Q

Q
1

Q
Q1

Q4
Q1

3
*

*
*
Q2
Q2
Q3

Q3
Q
4

Australian coal mine by an Indonesian mining

Q4

Q4
Q4Q1Q2Q3

Q4Q1Q2Q3
Q1Q2Q 3Q4Q 1Q2 Q3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

company. Furthermore, the net outflow also stemmed
Other Invesment Portfolio Investment Direct Investment Cap & Financial Account

* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures from loans extended by several domestic
Chart 14 manufacturing companies to their affiliates abroad.
Capital and Financial Account

Direct Investment On the liability side, direct investment recorded

a net foreign inflow (surplus) totalling USD5.9
The direct investment surplus expanded in the billion, up significantly from USD3.9 billion in the
third quarter of 2018 on improving domestic investment previous quarter. The notable gain was primarily
performance. Accordingly, the direct investment influenced by a net withdrawal of inter-affiliated
surplus stood at USD3.9 billion in the third quarter of debt, dominated by trade credit, by manufacturing
2018, increasing from USD2.7 billion because the and transportation companies. Moreover, equity
increased inflows of foreign direct investment (liability capital inflow decreased on the previous period,
side) exceeded the increased outflows of Indonesia among other due to a Singaporean company
direct investment abroad (asset divesting shares in an Indonesian mining company.

1 with bank stocks also followed suit, divesting offshore entities (inflow on
Direct investment developments in the fourth quarter of 2016 were dominated
by crossing transactions on banking sector stocks in the domestic stock the asset side) of the same value (Bank Indonesia, Balance of Payments
exchange. Foreign direct investment (FDI) previously recorded in the banking Report, Q4/2016 Edition, page 15)
sector originated from domestic funds (round-tripping FDI), thus when foreign
divestment occurred (outflow on the liability side), domestic investors

14
 By sector, the net inflow of direct investment on worth USD6.1 billion, higher than USD5.1 billion in
the liability side fed through to the non-oil and gas the previous period (Chart 16).

sector, while direct investment in the oil and gas

Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17* Q2-17* Q3-17* Q4-17* Q1-18* Q2-18* Q3-18**
Million USD
sector recorded a net outflow as the rising global oil 4,000

price edged up cost recovery. 2,000

The recent influx of direct investment reflects the -2,000

investor confidence in the national economic outlook -4,000

-6,000
despite increasing global financial market uncertainty -8,000

and competition. Direct investment has also increased -10,000

-12,000
as a result of improvements in the investment climate,
-14,000

as evidenced by Indonesia climbing up the Global Agriculture,

Fishery&Forestry
Mining &
Quarrying
Manufacturing Construction Financial
Intermediaries
Trade/Commerce Others (incl.
Services,
(incl. Insurance) Properties)

Competitiveness Index from 47th (out of 135 countries) *provisional figures; ** very provisional figures

Chart 16
in 2017 to 45th (out of 140 countries) in 20182.
FDI by Economic Sector4
The increase of direct investment was also
Investment activity from Singapore and Thailand
consistent with solid domestic investment activity,
contributed to the FDI deluge in the manufacturing
as indicated by a faster pace of Gross Fixed Capital
sector. Meanwhile, Japan and Singapore were the
Formation (GFCF) growth in the reporting period.
dominant investors in the trade sector.
Such findings were corroborated by the Business
Survey (SKDU) conducted by Bank Indonesia, By country of origin, the ASEAN region (led by

which revealed a weighted net balance (WNB) of Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia) continued to

14.23% in the reporting period, thus pointing to dominate the gross FDI inflow booked in the third

business expansion in the third quarter of 2018. The quarter of 2018, followed by Japan and emerging

manufacturing sector was the main driver of markets in Asia (including China), contributing

business growth, with the Prompt Manufacturing USD3.7 billion, USD1.8 billion, and USD0.9 billion
respectively, totalling USD6.4. billion (Chart 17).
Index (PMI) rising to 52.02%3 in the third quarter of
2018 on strong domestic demand. Million USD Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17* Q2-17* Q3-17* Q4-17* Q1-18* Q2-18* Q3-18**

5,000
Based on the direction of investments, the net
3,000
inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Indonesia
1,000
in the third quarter of 2018 reached USD5.9 billion, -1,000

declining slightly from USD6.0 billion in the previous -3,000

-5,000
period and from USD8.8 billion in the same period
-7,000
last year.
-9,000

-11,000
By sector, the manufacturing industry, trade
-13,000
sector as well as agricultural, forestry and fishing Japan USA Europe Emerging Markets of ASEAN Other
Asia (incl. China)
* provisional figures ** very provisional figures
sector dominated FDI inflows during the third quarter of
Chart 17
2018, with the three sectors recording investments
FDI by Country of Origin5

4
2 Bank Indonesia, op. cit.
Based on a World Economic Forum publication in the Global
Competitiveness Report 2018. 5
Bank Indonesia, op. cit.
3
A Prompt Manufacturing Index reading above 50% indicates an expansion in
the manufacturing industry.

15
 On an annual basis, the FDI inflow recorded in net deficit of USD0.1 billion in the third quarter of
the third quarter of 2018 decreased by 32.2% (yoy) in 2018, thus reversing the USD0.1 billion surplus in
line with the FDI realisation data published by the the previous period (Chart 18).

Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM)6. bilion

According to BKPM data, FDI realisation in the third USD

10 8 6
quarter of 2018 stood at Rp89.1 trillion (equivalent to
4 20-
USD6.1 billion), falling 20.2% (yoy) on the Rp111.7 2 -4 -6

Q
2

1
trillion (equivalent to USD7.6 billion) posted in the
same period one year earlier or down 6.9% compared

Q
2

4
with the Rp95.7 trillion (equivalent to USD6.5 billion)
recorded in the second quarter of 2018. By sector,

**
Q

Q
1

3
*

*
Q 1 Q 2Q 3 Q 4Q 1 Q 2Q 3 Q 4Q 1 Q 2 Q 3Q 4 Q 1
BKPM reported that FDI realisation in the third quarter 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

of 2018 was concentrated in the utilities sector Portfolio Inv. - Liabilities Portfolio Inv. - Assets Portfolio Investment (net)
* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures

(electricity, water and gas supply) worth USD1.2. Chart 18

Portfolio Investment
billion (18.2% share of total FDI), followed by the
transportation, storage and telecommunications sector
with USD1.0 billion (15.1% share), the residential, In the third quarter of 2018, the net foreign

industrial, and office sector with USD0.7 billion (10.6% inflow to government debt instruments increased to

share), and the mining sector with USD0.6 billion

USD1.2 billion from USD0.9 billion in the second

(9.1% share). Based on country of origin, Singapore,

Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and China were the
largest investors, providing USD1.6 billion, USD1.4
billion, USD0.5 billion, USD0.5 billion, and USD0.5
billion respectively to account for 68.2% of total FDI.
Portfolio Investment
High global financial market
restrained non-resident capital inflows to portofolio
instruments in Indonesia. In the third quarter of 2018,
portfolio investment liability recorded a net inflow
totalling USD1.4 billion, up slightly on the value
recorded in the previous quarter. On the asset side,
however, Indonesian residents booked a net buy of
foreign securities (outflow) totalling USD1.5 billion,
increasing from USD1.3 billion in the second quarter of
2018. Consequently, portfolio investment recorded a
quarter of 2018. The inflow was triggered by a
deluge of non-resident capital to rupiah
denominated SUN instruments totalling USD2.0
billion after recording a USD0.7 billion outflow in the
previous period. Furthermore, the increase was also
explained by a significantly smaller net foreign sell
of conventional and Islamic Treasury Bills (SPN)
from USD1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2018 to
uncertainty
USD0.4 billion in the reporting period.
Despite the net buy booked by non-resident
investors, foreign holdings of rupiah SUN declined
from 44.9% in the second quarter of 2018 to 44.6%
of total SUN at the end of the reporting period. On
the other hand, mirroring conditions in the previous
period, no foreign holdings of Bank Indonesia
Certificates (SBI) were recorded in the third quarter
of 2018 (Chart 19).

6 flows received directly by FDI companies from direct investors as well as

FDI realisation data from BKPM includes the total value of realised projects in
one period but excludes investment in the oil and gas sector, banking industry offshore companies within the same group over a defined period and
and other financial institutions as well as home industries. Meanwhile, FDI data includes direct investment in all economic sectors.
recorded in the Indonesian balance of payments (BOP) covers data on capital

16
 billion USD billion USD contrasting the gains reported in Thailand and
70 1.8

1.6
Singapore. Regionally, the stock markets traded up
60
1.4 on the positions recorded at the end of the second
50
1.2 quarter of 2018 (Chart 21).
40 1.0
2010 = 100
30 0.8

0.6 Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

20
0.4 290
10
0.2

0 0.0 240
JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJAS

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

190
SUN SBI (rhs)
Chart 19
Foreign Holdings of SBI and Government Debt Securities 140

(SUN)
90
J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J AS

Meanwhile, payments on government global 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: CEIC (processed)

bonds maturing in August 2018 were recorded at Chart 21
USD0.2 billion in the third quarter of 2018. ASEAN Stock Market Developments

Stock market developments remained under the

Indonesia Stock Exchange activity in the third
influence of growing uncertainty in the global financial
quarter of 2018 was backed by 16 additional new issuers
markets. Non-resident investors booked another net
of initial public offerings (IPO), with a total value of
sell of stocks in the third quarter of 2018, totalling
Rp25.3 trillion, equivalent to USD1.7 billion. The total fell
USD0.1 billion, which was considerably lower than the
short of the Rp45.2 trillion, or USD3.2 million, recorded by
USD1.9 billion net sell recorded in the second quarter
17 new issuers in the previous period.
of 2018. Despite the net sell booked by non-resident
investors in the third quarter of 2018, point to point the Consequently, the portfolio investment deficit
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rallied to close at a recorded in the third quarter of 2018 primarily
level of 5,976.6, increasing from 5,799.2 at the end of stemmed from the private sector, which posted a net
the second quarter of 2018 (Chart 20). deficit of USD1.5 billion, higher than USD1.0 billion in
the previous period. On the other hand, the public
billion Rp JCI
25,000 sector continued to register a net inflow of portfolio
6,600
20,000
5,900
investment, increasing to USD1.4 billion from USD1.1
15,000
10,000 5,200 billion in the previous period (Chart 22).
5,000 4,500
0 billion USD
3,800
(5,000) 10
3,100
(10,000) 8
2,400
(15,000)
6
(20,000) 1,700
Foreign Net Buy/Sell JCI (RHS) 4
(25,000) 1,000
Q

Q
1

JAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJ 2
Q

Q
1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0

Source: IDX -2
Q

Q
2

Chart 20 -4
Foreign Transactions on the IDX and JCI Developments
-6
Q

Q
1

3
*

*
*

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

In the third quarter of 2018, the Jakarta Public sector - Portfolio Inv. Private sector - Portfolio Inv. Portfolio Investment (net)
* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures
Composite Index (JCI) reflected the corrections Chart 22
reported in the Philippines and Malaysia, while Portfolio Investment by Institutional Sector

17
Other Investments
the USD2.7 billion surplus posted in the second
quarter of 2018. The increase was prompted by a
In the third quarter of 2018, other investments
net increase of foreign loans disbursement to
recorded a modest USD0.2 billion surplus,
finance the massive 35,000MW electrification
decreasing from USD1.7 billion in the second
project, amongst others (Chart 25).
quarter of 2018. The surplus narrowed due to other
billion
investment transactions on the asset side, which USD 6

recorded a net outflow after achieving a net inflow in 5

Q
1

3
4

the previous period (Chart 23). 3

1
billion
USD 0

10 8 6 -1

4 2 0 -2 -2

-4 -6 -8 -3
Q

Q
1

-10 -12 -4

2*Q3*
Q1*Q
Q

Q
1

*
Q4Q1Q 2Q3Q 4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4

Q1Q2Q 3Q4Q 1Q2 Q3Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

Trade Credit Other liabilities Currency & Deposits Loans Other Inv. - Liabilities

* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures

Chart 25
**
Q

Q
1

3
*

Other Investment Liabilities of the Private Sector

Q1Q2Q 3Q4Q 1Q2 Q3Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

Other Inv. - Liabilities Other. Inv - Assets Other Investment (net)
Other investment liabilities in the public sector
* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures

Chart 23 recorded a USD0.3 billion surplus in the third quarter

Other Investments of 2018, reversing the previous USD1.7 billion deficit in
the second quarter of 2018. The surplus was triggered
On the asset side, other investments by the private
by a USD0.5 billion net withdrawal of foreign loans by
sector experienced a USD2.9 billion deficit in the
the government after servicing USD1.5 billion of
reporting period, reversing the USD0.7 billion
external debt in the previous period (Chart 26). The
surplus posted in the previous period. The deficit
stemmed from private sector placements of deposits
together with other claims by the domestic banking drawn in the reporting period were in the form of
sector on banks abroad (Chart 24). program loans, with the remainder as project loans.
The Government borrowed most foreign loans from
billion USD

8
international organisations, namely the Asian
6
Development Bank (ADB) and the International
4
2 Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).
0
-2 bilion USD
-4 3
-6 -
8 - 2
Q

Q
2

10
-12 1
**
Q

Q
1

3
*

*
Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1

0
Q4Q1Q 2Q3Q 4Q1 Q2Q3 Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

-1
Other Assets Currency & Deposits Loans Other Investment - Assets
* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures -2
Chart 24
-3
Other Investment Assets of the Private Sector Q1* Q2* Q3**
Q2
Q1

Q2
Q3
Q4
2Q

4Q

2Q

4Q
Q

Q
Q

Q
Q

Q
Q

Q
Q
Q
Q

Q
Q

Q
3

1
2

2
3

3
4

3
4

4
1

1
1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018

On the liability side, other investment transactions Repayments Drawings Loans (net)
* provisional figures; ** very provisional figures
by the private sector recorded a net inflow (surplus) of Chart 26
USD2.8 billion in the reporting period, up slightly from Public Sector Foreign Loan