CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of Study

The term “life expectancy” refers to the number of years a person can expect to live.
By definition, life expectancy is based on an estimate of the average age that members of a
particular population group will be when they die. In practical terms, estimating life
expectancy entails predicting the probability of surviving successive years of life, based on
observed age-specific mortality rates.

It has been observed that in the past 15 years, there has been a huge development in
health sector resulting in improvement of human mortality rates especially in the
developing nations in comparison to the past 30 years. Although there have been lot of
studies undertaken in the past on factors affecting life expectancy considering demographic
variables, income composition and mortality rates. It was found that the effect of
immunization was not taken into account in the past. Also, some of the past research was
done considering multiple linear regression based on data set of one year for all the
countries. Hence, this gives motivation to resolve both the factors stated previously by
formulating a regression model based on mixed effects model and multiple linear
regression.

In a nutshell, this study will focus on immunization factors, mortality factors,

economic factors and other health related factors as well. Immunization factor like Hepatitis
B will be considered. Since the observations this dataset are based on different countries, it
will be easier for a country to determine the predicting factor which is contributing to lower
value of life expectancy. This will help in suggesting a country which area should be given
importance in order to efficiently improve the life expectancy of its population.

1.2 Research Objectives

1. To determine which predicting variables (Adult Mortality, Hepatitis B, Measles, GDP,

Country) contribute to the value of life expectancy.
2. To determine the best multiple linear regression model.
1.3 Description of Variables in The Data Set

The dependent variable is the variable to be predicted. Life Expectancy is chosen as the
dependent variable (Y), since the focus on the study is to estimate the average age of survive
population of a country. The independent variables (X) that may contribute to the study are
Hepatitis B, Measles, GDP, Country, Year and Status. These six variables are related to the
health and economic factors that will be contribute the life expectancy of a population. In this
study, there are 80 observations from 5 countries are taken into this study. The variables are as
follows:

Table 1.1: Description of Data

Variables Description Data Type Type of

Variable
Hepatitis B Immunization coverage of Numeric Independent
Hepatitis B among 1-year old (%)
Measles Number of reported cases per Numeric Independent
1000 population
GDP Gross Domestic Product per capita Numeric Independent
(in USD)
Country Country involved (Malaysia, Categorical Independent
Brunei, Thailand, Singapore and
Indonesia)
Life Life Expectancy in years Numeric Dependent
Expectancy
Year From year 2000 until 2015 only Numeric Independent
Status 0= Developed Categorical Independent
1= Developing

Based on the table above, there six independent variables which are Hepatitis B,
Measles, GDP and Country, Year and Status. The response variable is Life Expectancy.
1.4 Source of Data Set
Datasets are obtained from a web which contains lots of data sets to be study for the
future research. The original data are made public by World Health Organization (WHO) with
the intention to make any clinical report regarding to life expectancy by anyone. So, the data
will be analyzed and the measurements will be taken on available case reported from 2000 until
2015 only. The data set are available at:

https://www.kaggle.com/kumarajarshi/life-expectancy-who

1.5 Sample Size

The data set are related to life expectancy in health factors for 5 countries has been
collected from World Health Organization (WHO) from 2000 until 2015. A total of 80
observations from 5 countries are taken into this study.