Nat Hazards (2012) 63:1361–1374

DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9918-1

ORIGINAL PAPER

Prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay

of Bengal during 2007–2010 using high-resolution
mesoscale model

P. V. S. Raju • Jayaraman Potty • U. C. Mohanty

Received: 8 October 2010 / Accepted: 2 July 2011 / Published online: 17 August 2011
Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Abstract In this paper, the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for the
prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007–2010 (Sidr,
Nargis, Aila, and Laila) is discussed. The advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF)
modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL
schemes, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization, and Ferrier cloud microphysics schemes
for the simulations. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived
from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Envi-
ronmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1°lon/lat resolu-
tion. The simulation results of the extreme weather parameters such as heavy rainfall,
strong wind and track of those four severe cyclones, are critically evaluated and discussed
by comparing with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated values. The
simulations of the cyclones reveal that the cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall are
reasonably well simulated by the model. The mean track error at the time of landfall of the
cyclone is 98 km, in which the minimum error was found to be for the cyclone Nargis
(22 km) and maximum error for the cyclone Laila (304 km). The landfall time of all the
cyclones is also fairly simulated by the model. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are
well simulated by the model as well and were comparable with the TRMM estimates.

Keywords Tropical cyclone  Track  Intensity  Vector displacement error 

Model simulations

P. V. S. Raju (&)  J. Potty

Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), Asian Institute of Technology
Campus, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand
e-mail: pemmani@gmail.com

U. C. Mohanty
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Hauz Khas,
New Delhi 110 016, India

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1 Introduction

Tropical cyclones (TC) over the Bay of Bengal cause enormous damage to countries of
Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar in terms of economic and human losses, though the
frequency of cyclones is lower in this tropical basin (Asnani 2005). High winds, heavy
rainfall, and storm surges are the most important components in tropical cyclone disasters
(Bengtsson 2001; Emanuel 2005). Accurate and timely forecasts of intense cyclones along
with appropriate mitigation strategies will lead to a substantial reduction in loss of lives
and livelihoods. The cyclone season in the North Indian Ocean, which includes the Bay of
Bengal and the Arabian Sea, has a bimodal structure with two peaks; one during the April–
May months and the second between October and December. Despite this long cyclonic
season, on average, five to six storms occur per year. Based on the historical record of the
past 300 years, it shows that 6–7% of the total number of global tropical cyclones originate
over the North Indian Ocean (Neumann 1993), out of which 75% of all storms with a death
toll of more than 5,000 in a single event occur in this region.
During the past two decades, due to the considerable improvement in numerical weather
prediction modeling capabilities and advanced computational resources, it could be pos-
sible to provide well-advanced and accurate prediction of severe weather events such as
tropical cyclones. The mesoscale models that represent a domain much smaller than a
global domain can afford very high resolution and have the capability to resolve high-
resolution complex topography. It improves the representation of various subgrid-scale
processes such as cloud radiation forcing, cumulus convection, and land surface processes
(Tenerelli and Chen 2001). Cumulus convection and boundary layer physics play an
important role in the development and intensification of tropical cyclone prediction
(Bhaskar Rao and Hariprasad 2007). A number of parameterization schemes have been
developed by various researchers based on different assumptions and hence these schemes
have some limitations as well in the prediction of the track and intensity of tropical
cyclones. Chang et al. (2009) studied sensitivity of land surface parameterization on
simulation of extreme rainfall events with two mesoscale models, namely MM5 and WRF,
and found that the WRF model simulates rainfall better than MM5 in terms of distribution
and quantity. The sensitivity experiments with the MM5 model revealed that the track and
intensity prediction of tropical cyclones are sensitive to the cumulus convection and PBL
parameterization schemes (Braun and Tao 2000; Mandal et al. 2004; Bhaskar Rao and
Hariprasad 2007). Also, cloud microphysics parameterization schemes have a dramatic
impact on the forecasted track (Fovell and Su 2007). Most of these studies are based on the
simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal with a non-hydrostatic model
(MM5). Further, numerous comparison studies revealed that the WRF modeling system is
better in order to predict realistic intense weather systems of heavy rainfall, tropical
cyclones, etc. (Sousounis et al. 2004; Cheng and Steenburgh 2005; Sujatha and Mohanty
2008).
In this study, intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal during
2007–2010 and are considered to examine the performance of WRF-ARW core model in
terms of track, intensity, and time of landfall. The extreme weather parameters such as
heavy rainfall, strong winds, and mean sea level pressure associated with the cyclones are
discussed. Section 2 contains a brief description of synoptic features of the cyclones
considered for this study, while in Sect. 3, details of the WRF modeling system and dataset
are discussed. The results of the model simulations are presented in Sect. 4, and Sect. 5
provides a summary and concluding remarks.

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2 Synoptic features of severe cyclone over Bay of Bengal during 2007–2010

2.1 Sidr (13–16 November 2007)

The depression formed over the southeast of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on 9
November 2007 and intensified as tropical cyclone ‘‘Sidr’’ on 11 November and located
south of the Andaman Islands. The system then began to intensify quickly as it moved
slowly north-westward and further intensified to a severe cyclonic storm on 12 November.
On 13 November, it became a very severe cyclonic storm. On the morning of 15
November, the cyclone intensified to reach peak winds of 215 km/h. Sidr made landfall
around 1700 UTC on 15 November, with sustained winds of 215 km/h. It weakened
quickly after landfall over the Bangladesh coast.

2.2 Nargis (26 April 2008–02 May 2008)

Due to the influence of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a cyclonic circulation
developed over the southeast Bay of Bengal on 27 April 2008 and became a cyclonic storm
‘‘Nargis’’ on 0000 UTC on 28 April 2008 located at 13.0°N, 85.5°E. The system intensified
into a severe cyclonic storm at 0900 UTC on the 28th and into a very severe cyclonic storm
at 0300 UTC on 29 April. The system then moved easterly while intensifying further and
crossed the southwest coast of Myanmar around 1000 UTC on 2 May 2008 near 16.0°N,
94°E. After crossing the coast, the system maintained the intensity of a severe cyclonic
storm until 3 April in the early morning and gradually weakened thereafter (IMD 2008).
The maximum sustained wind speed around 120 knots prevailed around the system center
on 2 May 0600 UTC to 3 May 0000 UTC. The lowest estimated central pressure of cyclone
Nargis was 937 hPa recorded at 0600 UTC on 2 May. The upper-level divergence, low-
level convergence, and low-level relative vorticity were also favorable for intensification.
Tropical cyclone Nargis was the deadliest storm in recent decades and killed more than one
hundred thousand people in Myanmar.

2.3 Aila (23–26 May, 2009)

Under favorable conditions of warmer sea surface temperatures, low to moderate ver-
tical wind shear, and upper-level divergence, the depression formed over the southeast
Bay of Bengal at 0600 UTC on 23 May 2009. It intensified into cyclonic storm ‘‘Aila’’
at 1200 UTC on 24 May and into a severe cyclonic storm a few hours before landfall at
0600 UTC on 25 May. The system moved in a northerly direction throughout its life
span and crossed the West Bengal coast close to Sagar Island between 0800 and 0900
UTC on 25 May. It caused the loss of about 100 lives and left several injured in West
Bengal. It also caused about 175 deaths and several injured in adjoining Bangladesh.
The system maintained the intensity of the cyclone (T2.5) even up to 15 h after the
landfall.

2.4 Laila (17–20 May 2010)

A depression developed on 0900 UTC on 17 May 2010 in the Bay of Bengal from a
persistent area of convection and became a deep depression, indicating sustained winds of

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at least 34 mph (55 km/h). The system intensified to cyclonic storm ‘‘Laila’’ early on 18
May. Further, strengthening as it tracked north-westward, it became a severe cyclonic
storm on 19 May with a maximum wind of 75 mph (120 km/h), the equivalent of a
minimal hurricane. On 20 May at 1200 UTC, Laila made landfall near Baptla, Andhra
Pradesh, and it later dissipated over land. It caused flooding and damage along its path.
After reaching peak intensity, cyclone Laila briefly decelerated as it moved around the
periphery of the subtropical ridge. At the same time, wind shear began increasing, and the
cyclone began weakening as it remained just off the coast.

3 WRF modeling systems and data used

The mesoscale model used in this study is the advanced Weather Research and Forecast
model version 2.2.1 developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
with the collaboration of multi-agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and
various universities (Dudhia 2004). The WRF model is a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model
designed for the simulation and prediction of fine-scale atmospheric phenomena, empha-
sizing horizontal grid lengths of a few kilometers or less (Michalakes et al. 2005;
Skamarock et al. 2005). It uses a Eulerian mass dynamical core with terrain-following
hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinates with Arakawa C-grid staggering. The model
uses the Runge–Kutta 2nd and 3rd order time integration schemes and 2nd to 6th order
advection schemes in both the horizontal and vertical directions with a time-split small step
for acoustic and gravity-wave modes (Skamarock and Klemp 2008). It offers a number of
parameterizations of physical processes and user-specified options, thus tapping into the
experience of the broad modeling community. In this study, the Kain-Fritsch new Eta
scheme (Kain and Fritsch 1993) convective parameterization scheme, the planetary
boundary layer schemes of Yonsei University (YSU), boundary-layer schemes (Hong et al.
2006), and microphysics schemes of Ferrier (new Eta) are used. The above schemes are
selected based on extensive sensitivity experiments on cumulus convection, PBL schemes,
and microphysics schemes (Raju et al. 2011). The Dudhia shortwave radiation scheme
(Dudhia 1989) is used in all the cyclone simulations carried out in this study. An overview
of the model configuration used in the present study for the simulation of tropical cyclones
is illustrated in Table 1. A brief history of severe cyclone cases and the initialization time
is provided in Table 2.
The initial conditions for the cyclone simulations are obtained from the NCEP global
operational analysis available at 1 9 1° horizontal resolutions. The time-varying lateral
boundary conditions are derived at 6-h intervals from the NCEP-GFS data. The constant
SST data prescribed from NCEP datasets are used throughout the simulation period. The
model topography was taken from the USGS at 100 resolutions. The observed intensity and
the position of all cyclone cases are obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
(JTWC) in Guam for comparison with the model simulations. The Tropical Rainfall
Measurement Mission (TRMM) rainfall data are utilized during the storm period for
comparison with model-derived rainfall. The final gridded TRMM precipitation is the
adjusted merged-IR precipitation (mm/h) available at 3 hourly interval and horizontal
resolution of 0.25 9 0.25 lat/long, with spatial coverage extending from 50°S to 50°N
over the entire globe (Huffman et al. 2007).

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Table 1 Summary of WRF

Model
model configuration
Number of domain
Central point of the
domain
Horizontal grid size
Number of grid points
Map projection
Horizontal grid
distribution
Vertical coordinate
Time integration
Spatial differencing
scheme
Initial conditions
Lateral boundary
condition
Top boundary condition
Bottom boundary
condition
Radiation scheme
Surface layer
parameterization
PBL schemes
Cumulus schemes
Microphysics scheme
WRF 2.2.1
One
10°N, 90°E
9 km
X-direction 600 (65.4°E,114.5°E)
Y-direction 600 (9.3°S, 36.9°N)
Mercator
Arakawa C-grid
Terrain-following hydrostatic-pressure
coordinate
3rd order Runge–Kutta
6th order centered differencing
3-dimensional real data (NCEP)
Open
Gravity wave absorbing (diffusion)
Physical
Dudhia’s shortwave radiation
RRTM longwave radiation
Noah land surface scheme
YSU
Kain-Fritsch (new Eta) scheme
Ferrier (new Eta)

Table 2 Key feature of Bay of Bengal cyclones consider in the study during 2007–2010
S. no Cyclone Duration Max. intensity Landfall time Time of model
initialization
MSLP Wind
(hPa) (km/h)

1 Sidr 11–16 Nov 2007 918 115 15 Nov 1700 UTC 13 Nov 0000 UTC
2 Nargis 26 Apr–2 May 2008 937 115 02 May 1000 UTC 30 Apr 1200 UTC
3 Aila 23–26 May 2009 968 70 25 May 1200 UTC 23 May 1200 UTC
4 Laila 18–21 May 2010 986 65 20 May 1200 UTC 19 May 0000 UTC

4 Results and discussion

The performance of the WRF-ARW core is evaluated in terms of track, intensity, and
landfall time of four severe cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal during 2007–2010.
For all of the cyclones, the model is integrated up to 72 h and compared with the JTWC
estimates. The model integration time for each cyclone was chosen in such a way that the
cyclone hit the land before 48 h.

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4.1 Track

The model-predicted tracks of four cyclones along with the best-fit track are depicted in
Fig. 1. The simulated tracks for the cyclones are in good agreement with the observed track
throughout the simulation period. The model also simulated landfall position with good
accuracy as compared to the actual landfall position. However, the simulation of cyclone
Laila has shown the deviation of the landfall position when compared to the actual track.
The simulated cyclone moves toward the southwest during the first 24 h and moved
northerly crossing near the Kakinada coast (17°N; 82.5°E), Andhra Pradesh, whereas the
actual landfall of cyclone Laila occurs near Baptla, Andhra Pradesh. The vector dis-
placement errors for predicted tracks of the cyclones are presented in Table 3. The mean
displacement error at 00, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h is 157, 144, 152, 182, 165, 151, and
190 km, respectively. The results are consistent throughout the model simulation with
average displacement errors found to be below 200 km over the entire 3-day forecast
period. It is worthwhile to note that the average initial position errors for all cyclone cases
are 157 km with a maximum of 178 km and a minimum of 102 km.

Fig. 1 Observed and simulated tracks of tropical cyclone a Sidr, b Nargis, c Aila, d Laila

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Table 3 Vector displacement

Time (h) Sidr Nargis Aila Laila Average
error in km
00 102 177 170 178 157
06 128 200 103 166 149
12 170 152 28 225 144
18 165 122 57 131 144
24 179 112 71 147 152
30 194 76 85 305 165
36 340 71 86 233 182
42 350 57 108 180 174
48 301 32 149 180 165
54 272 51 139 133 149
60 194 120 130 161 151
66 45 160 192 146 161
72 125 211 148 280 190
Landfall error (km) 36.1 22 32 304
Landfall time error (h) -9 ?1 ?7 -13

4.2 Intensity

The time evolution of observed and model-simulated cyclone intensity in terms of mini-
mum central pressure and maximum sustained wind are also analyzed. The model-simu-
lated and observed central pressure (Fig. 2) for the cyclones up to the 72-h forecast period
indicates that the model could capture the minimum central pressure for all the cyclone
cases fairly well as compared with observed central pressure, except for cyclone Sidr. It is
found that there is a large initial position error (58 hPa) between actual pressure and
analysis of cyclone Sidr. Due to this initial error of cyclone Sidr, the model could not
capture the intensity of mean sea level pressure throughout the integration period. The
intensity of cyclone Nargis in terms of central pressure is also underpredicted by the entire
model integration period but very close to the estimated central pressure by JTWC. The
lowest central pressure for cyclone Nargis simulated by the model is about 954 hPa on 02
May 12 UTC (Fig. 2b). For cyclone Aila, the model well simulated the lowest central
pressure and was very close to the JTWC-estimated central pressure during landfall with an
average error of 12 hPa. In case of Laila, the model predicted the central pressure close to
the estimated central pressure for up to 30 h and then overpredicted the entire simulation
period. Overall, there is a time lag in simulating the intensity of central pressure for the
cyclones at the time of landfall when compared to observed central pressure. It is also
noted that the intensity error of surface pressure decreases with time after the cyclones
make landfall. The distributions of surface pressure of the cyclones during landfall are
presented in Fig. 3. The model-simulated surface pressure of cyclone Sidr represents a
weak low-pressure system at the time of landfall with minimum central pressure of about
1,005 hPa, whereas the observed pressure estimated by JTWC is about 918 hPa. The 48-h
forecast of cyclone Nargis based on 30 April 12 UTC shows that the system had made
landfall over the Irrawaddy region with a central pressure of about 954 hPa which is close
to the JTWC-observed central pressure. The surface pressure distribution for cyclone Aila
is simulated well by the model with a central pressure of 960 hPa which is slightly

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Fig. 2 Time evolution of observed and model-simulated central pressure (hPa) for a Sidr, b Nargis, c Aila,
and d Laila

overpredicted. Also, the intensity and location of landfall of cyclone Laila are realistically
well simulated by the model.
The time evolution of maximum wind at the 10-m level simulated by the model for four
cyclones and the corresponding observations from JTWC are shown in Fig. 4. The model
was able to simulate the maximum wind for the cyclones but slightly underpredicted when
compared with the observed maximum wind. The maximum wind is underestimated by the
model throughout the integration time for cyclone Sidr with an error of about 50 m s-1 at
the time of landfall. This may be due to a large initial error between the estimated wind and
the model initial analysis. The maximum estimated wind for cyclone Nargis at the time of
landfall obtained from JTWC is around 58 m s-1 on 2 May 12 UTC, while the model-
simulated maximum wind is 45 m s-1 on 2 May 00 UTC. In case of cyclone Aila, the
model is slightly underpredicted throughout the simulation period with an average error of
6 m s-1. For cyclone Laila, the model is underpredicted maximum winds up to 36 h and

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Fig. 3 Distribution of sea level pressure at the landfall time for a Sidr, b Nargis, c Aila, and d Laila

then overpredicted. It is worthy to note that all simulations show that the model could
capture maximum winds during the time of landfall except for cyclone Sidr. The model-
simulated wind vector and magnitude at 850 hPa for the four cyclone cases at landfall are
illustrated in Fig. 5. The simulated wind for cyclone Sidr (Fig. 5a) shows the northeasterly
wind along the coast of Bangladesh with an intensity of about 25–30 m s-1 at the time of
landfall. In cyclone Nargis, strong cyclonic circulations over the southwest peninsular
Myanmar coast with a wind magnitude above 40 m s-1 closely match observed winds at
the time of landfall. The 48-h simulations of cyclone Aila initialized on 23 May 2009, 12
UTC show strong cyclonic circulation over the coast of West Bengal close to Sagar Island.

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Fig. 4 Time evolution of observed and model-simulated maximum sustained surface wind (m s-1) for
a Sidr, b Nargis, c Aila, and d Laila

In cyclone Laila, the center of the cyclone is close to the Andhra coast with maximum
northerly winds over the southeast region (35 m s-1) during landfall.
Further, the distribution and intensity of precipitation during the time of landfall is
discussed with observed TRMM analysis and model-simulated precipitation for the
cyclones. The 24-h accumulated precipitation of TRMM analysis (top panels) and model-
simulated precipitation (bottom panels) for cyclones of Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila are
presented in Fig. 6. The TRMM and model precipitation of cyclone Sidr (Fig. 6a, b) reveal
that the model well captures the distribution and intensity of 24-h accumulated precipi-
tation (100 mm) on 15 November 2007 over the Bangladesh coast. However, the inland
precipitation (shown by TRMM analysis) could not simulated by the model. The 24 h
accumulated TRMM precipitation of cyclone Nargis (Fig. 6c) valid at 00 UTC on 3 May
2008 illustrates the heavy precipitation ([250 mm) over the southwest peninsular tip and
moderate rainfall ([50–150 mm) over southern Myanmar. The model simulation based on

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Fig. 5 Distribution of wind at 850 hPa at the landfall time for a Sidr, b Nargis, c Aila, and d Laila (shaded
area corresponds to wind speed)

12 UTC, 30 April 2008 shows that the model could capture heavy rainfall over the
southwest Myanmar peninsular region (Fig. 6d). Further, the model satisfactorily simu-
lated the precipitation distribution of cyclone Aila; however, the model overpredicted
precipitation intensity when compared with the TRMM analysis. In the case of cyclone
Laila, the 24-h accumulated TRMM precipitation (valid at 00 UTC on 21 May 2010)
depicted over coastal India around 15°N and the adjoining Bay of Bengal, while the model-
predicted precipitation distribution found over the west Bay of Bengal. Overall, the TRMM

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Fig. 6 Twenty-four-hour accumulated rainfall during the landfall period for a Sidr-TRMM, b Sidr-Model, c Nargis-TRMM, d Nargis-Model, e Aila-TRMM, f Aila-Model,
g Laila-TRMM, and h Laila-Model
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analysis and model-predicted precipitation indicate that the model was able to simulate the
rainfall successfully in terms of distribution as well as intensity except in the case of Laila.
It is noteworthy that the simulations well predicted the intensity of rainfall over land but
overpredicted over oceanic regions.

4.3 Landfall

The present results suggest that the model could predict the location of landfall very
successfully with an average displacement error of 77 km for all cyclones (Table 3). The
large value in displacement error at landfall arises mainly due to cyclone Laila with an
error of 304 km. The displacement error at the time of landfall for cyclone Sidr, Nargis,
and Aila is 36, 22, and 32 km, respectively. Except for Laila, the displacement errors were
very small and less than the radius of maximum wind. Further, the model simulates landfall
time for all cyclones reasonably well with a time error of about a 1 h lead for cyclone
Nargis and a 13 h lag for cyclone Aila. The time error for Sidr was 9 h behind the actual
landfall and that of Aila was 7 h ahead of the actual landfall.

5 Conclusions

The prediction capability of the WRF modeling system was discussed by analyzing sim-
ulation results of four severe cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007–2010. The
prediction parameters such as cyclone track, intensity, and landfall time are analyzed and
compared with available observations. The cyclone simulations show that the model could
predict the cyclone track, intensity in terms of central pressure, maximum sustained winds,
and precipitation reasonably well. The displacement error at the landfall position of
cyclone Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila is 36, 22, 32, and 304 km, respectively. The landfall
time of the cyclones is also fairly well simulated by the model with a minimum time error
for cyclone Nargis of a 1 h lead and a maximum time error for cyclone Laila of 13 h. The
model well predicted the intensity of central pressure and wind except for cyclone Sidr.
This suggested that the model performance is heavily dependent on initial errors. The large
error of wind intensity in the initial condition for cyclone Sidr had a huge impact on the
prediction, as it is underpredicted throughout the simulation period. The model well pre-
dicted wind intensity for Nargis, Aila, and Laila when compared with the JTWC estimate.
In addition, the model was able to produce spatial distribution and intensity of pre-
cipitation reasonably well over the region and was comparable with the TRMM estimates.
The present study demonstrates the performance of the WRF model for prediction of
tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal in terms of track, intensity, and time of landfall
with good accuracy, suggesting that the model has the potential to use for operational
purposes. However, the prediction of tropical cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall
is still a challenging task, and further improvement can be achieved in mesoscale modeling
systems by accurate vortex relocation, initialization, and inclusion of satellite as well as
other available observations over the open ocean where the cyclonic system develops.

Acknowledgments The authors sincerely acknowledge NCEP for providing the global analysis and
forecast fields, NASA for precipitation data; the track and intensity were furnished by JTWC. We thank
Dr. Dev Niyogi of Purdue State University, USA, for his useful suggestion and two anonymous reviewers
for their valuable comments on the manuscript. We also thank Mr. A. R. Subbiah, Director, RIMES, for the
institutional support.

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