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Counting
Statistics I: pure applied probability (data in an uncertain world, perfect knowledge of the uncertainty)
Conjugate priors
Statistics II: applied probability (data in an uncertain world, imperfect knowledge of the uncertainty)
Linear regression
Computation, simulation, and visualization using R and applets will be used throughout the course.
Probability
Use basic counting techniques (multiplication rule, combinations, permutations) to compute probability
and odds.
Compute conditional probabilities directly and using Bayes' theorem, and check for independence of
events.
Set up and work with discrete random variables. In particular, understand the Bernoulli, binomial,
geometric and Poisson distributions.
Work with continuous randam variables. In particular, know the properties of uniform, normal and
exponential distributions.
Know what expectation and variance mean and be able to compute them.
Understand the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.
Use available resources (the internet or books) to learn about and use other distributions as they arise.
Statistics
Understand the difference between probability and likelihood functions, and find the maximum
likelihood estimate for a model parameter.
Do Bayesian updating with discrete priors to compute posterior distributions and posterior odds.
Use null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) to test the significance of results, and understand and
compute the p-value for these tests.
Use specicific significance tests including, z-test t-test (one and two sample), chi-squared test.
Before Class
You must do the reading and answer reading questions before each class, as lectures will be given under
the assumption that you have completed the reading. We do not expect that you will have mastered the
material on first reading. The goal is to start the process, so class will be more productive. The reading
questions will prepare you for the harder questions we will work during class and on the problem sets.
Class Sessions
Class sessions will be a blend of lecture, concept questions and group problem solving. In-class group
work will be done in groups of three of your choosing. will use groups of 3. We will use "clicker
questions" in class.
Studio Sessions
Studio sessions will involve longer problems and the use of R for computation, simulation and
visualization. You will need to bring your laptop during these sessions. We will make frequent use of R for
computation, simulation and visualization. We will teach you everything you need to know to use R as a
tool, and you will not be expected to use R to do any hardcore computer programming.
Collaboration
MIT has a culture of teamwork so we encourage you to work with study partners. Collaboration on
homework is encouraged, but you must write your solutions yourself, in your own words. You must also
list all collaborators and outside sources of information.
Discussion Boards
This course makes use of discussion boards, which can be a great resource for helping each other
understand the material and problem sets. We encourage collaboration and learning communities but
please avoid asking for and/or posting answers to assignments: You may help clarify what's being asked,
shed light on a concept, or direct others to relevant material. You may not provide solutions to problem
sets.
Grading
ACTIVITIES PERCENTAGES
Exam 1 15%
Exam 2 15%