China's next leader

Xi who must be obeyed

China’s Communist Party anoints Xi Jinping as the

country’s next leader. He will have his work cut out
Oct 21st 2010 | BEIJING

IN ORDER to be taken seriously, sometimes “thumping the table is better than not
thumping”, Xi Jinping reportedly said when he was a relatively little known provincial
chief. On October 18th Mr Xi, who is now vice-president, was anointed as China’s
leader-in-waiting. Yet earning the respect of his fractious Communist Party, let alone a
sceptical public, will require a lot more than table-bashing. Mr Xi’s eventual grip on
power is by no means assured.

For years China’s Communist Party has mulled over the idea of allowing a modicum of
open competition for its top job. But on October 18th the party leadership made clear that
this time its succession arrangements would leave nothing to chance. At a secretive
meeting it appointed Vice-President Xi Jinping to a senior military post. In the party’s
coded language this means he will begin taking over as China’s leader in two years’ time.

It had long been assumed that Mr Xi, who is 57, would get the top job, and that this
would be signalled by making him vice-chairman of the party’s Central Military
Commission. President Hu Jintao was given the same job in 1999, three years before he
took over as party chief. Last year, however, with three years to go before Mr Hu’s
expected move towards retirement and no announcement on Mr Xi, some had begun to
wonder whether the party might be preparing a different way of transferring power.
When the party’s 370-strong Central Committee began a four-day annual meeting at a
heavily guarded Beijing hotel on October 15th, it was far from certain that Mr Xi was
about to be anointed. But the party has stuck to tradition. The commission, it tersely said,
would be “augmented” by the inclusion of Mr Xi.

This adds little to Mr Xi’s power (the armed forces will remain under Mr Hu and his
generals). But it clearly signals that the party believes that Mr Xi should replace Mr Hu
as general secretary in late 2012. Mr Hu is not obliged to step aside then. But since 1993
the position of party chief has gone hand-in-hand with that of president. Mr Hu is
required to step down as president in March 2013. There is no rule saying when he must
step down as military chief. But precedent suggests he will also hand this role to Mr Xi
by 2014.

Mr Xi’s career has clearly benefited from his connections. He graduated from Beijing’s
Tsinghua University in 1979 with a degree in engineering (which most Chinese leaders
have). China was then emerging from the post-Mao era’s first succession crisis, with
Deng busy nailing the political coffin of Mao’s heir, Hua Guofeng. Mr Xi landed a job as
an assistant to the defence minister, one of his father’s friends. This soupçon of military
experience has been played up in his official biography, which says he was an “officer on
active service”.