The Phklosophy of Statistics and Probability « oe SASSI Sed oa Son Baa Dgingering : 1. Introduction The title vas accepted as inferred from the plans of the m— Organizing Committee, but it is recognized right from the outset to be bold and premature, portraying much more a rationalized . intent than a foreseeable achievement to be discussed in a State of the Art presentation. Truly, a more appropriate title would yet retain the separate steps of the ladder, and emphasize the intent: of statistics, of probabilities, and of decision theory, as intended aids towards design in Soil Engineering. . Soil Mechanics can be said to have owged its first important steps of success to cutting the Gordian knot from the complexities and vague qualifications of geology and the natural sciences of yon¢, and mentally assuming the arrogance of deterministic quantitativism, cokpled with the unquestioned servitude te observations and teates Mathematics is a deterministic idealization, and numbers, vectors, an¢ matrices are deterministic quantities connected by nistic functions. It is very revealing to note that most set mechanics publications, almost without exception, theorize in an absolutely deterministic cause-effect link, even in the face of very complex phenomena: on the other hand, tests and observations are 4 must, and almost without exception the results are presented and interpreted by curves joining successive individual points! Thereupon, one must recognize that there is a very wide gap of frame of mind to be bridged first. If I may be permitted to draw upon a quotation from Prof. T.W.Lambe’s recent Rankine Lecture (Geotechni- que, June 1873 p.157) it may be seen that even where the spirit indeed is strongest (witness his intense enthusiasm for "Predictions in Soil Engineering") the conditioned flesh is weak: "The great variability of soil characteristics typically encountered by the engineer leads one to think that the principles of probability: theory could be most helpful. In certain aspects of soil engineering, such as earthquake engineering, this expectation has proved to be true. In general, however, probability theory has not yet had a significant influence on the practice of soil engineering Indeed, let us recognize that the final statement is a polite gross understatement; there has been no influence whatever. The first statement embodies what has become the unchallenged popular consendus “because of the great heterogeneities, the only reasonable manner to analyze data should be by statistics? and incorporates two further thoughts of great and complex pregnancy, that cannot so simply be bundled together with the mere notion of statistical variability.... that is, "Engineering", and"Probabilities". Finally, the intermediate statement exposes the ironical measure of ‘the frailty of our gegrees of belief: where there is absolutely no alternate (e.g. earthquake probability prognostication), no deterministic strut, Proc. " icati of Statisti Pp ility in Soi wer “SERGI Engines nage = “M4 POMP in iL ma Imtermtional Conference. Aachen, 1975, Y1-III66 and no possible measure of validity or success, the degree of returns of a creed are highest, and the belief is considered proven. as great as are the This presentation's® keynote will be Cav hopes, great can be the pitfalls. We all know in our entrails the problems of heterogeneity, error, ete, that should be equated to permit transforming into palpable objective measures the "feel" for better engineering solutions that “experience” gives: that is, we are, we cannot help but be Bayesian in all our root culture! Yet through a curious psycholo- gical quirk of attempting to “deny the base steps by which thou diést ascend", the spirited vanguards armed with a new weapon want to prove they can start from scratch and give anybody, duly armed with numbers and formulae, the right to build the same castlef. Actually, the moment that Soil Mechanics leaves its comfortable cradleYdeterministic "perfectly reproducible" links derived from controlled observation of idealized simple phenomena, it becomes necessary to recognize funcéamental terms and concepts often misplaced: - : Statistics fundamentally represents the method of reducing a group of measurements and data into a few values that retain the information contained in the original data: synthetic summary of ‘data about samples, of events observed.’ Statistical idealization is associated with a frequency, large number of repetitions, and the quantities used are defined by distribution function: o& densities of probabilities. a > Regression analysis comprises the attempt at statisticdtly correlating parameters subject to independent random variations. When conducted with full use of statistical support, it not only permits crosschecking, but also serves for estimation and proba- bilistic extrapolation. Probabilities apply-to events that have happened, may have happened, may be happening, or may yet happen (universes that we imagine) and, being essumed to persist in the same trends of the past, are forecast.to happen in the future. The very purpose of probabilities is connected with forecasting. Strategic idealization (Decision Theory, Theory of Games) is associated with a degree of confirmation, dependent on a single action resultant on a decision, employing probability as a counterpart of a.degree of confirmation and not only of a frequency. Decision Theory is strategic, related to action (subjective or not) on the basis of probabilities, but depends on the value objective selected. 767 prediction comprises the estimation of the most probable complex EeeSir irom the interplay of probabilistic forecesting on several seees. We shall limit the term probability estimation to « relati- ely stall chain of interconnected events intervening» while prediction presently embodies a considerable amount of deterministic preorizing, and certain ambiguities regarding interdependence or not of varying components. prescriptions have historically and irrevocably oriented most of Soil Engineering Design ( and, in fact, Civil ‘Engineering Desing), sor continue to do so. Besicaily, Engineering hes advanced from & Gondition of epplication in affluence, wherein neither statistics Sor probabilities nor decision strategy could have any place, to tke Eradually tightening requirements of optimization and of test~ ing the frontiers of impunity. z It would be a delusion not to recognize thet Soil Mechanics ~ conputations have foliowed in the wake of Design by Pi cription, since one need but observe¥ the curious adjustment of the tecnnology fo a great range of Factors of Safety and Levels of Acceptance it cannot really comprehend. In statistical terms 2 Prescription may be classed as"fhe choice of a change of universe for a solution, based on a freedom to place oneself safely outside of the universe under analysis and estimation. Thereupon, hitheyte most successful engineering design hes transcended Decision Theory's immediate Sisitation (limited, temporarily, to optimization of decisions avihin a given universe), through Prescriptions, and by using Cnzineering 2s derived from ingenious (with an 1) instead of 2s Sssociated with engine, 2s well pointed out by Rosen#fueth -( . Prescriptions can ove with statistics, probabilities, strategy» ‘Gectsion theory, and, above all represent the wisdom to shift 2O another universe of problem, sought to bypass the frustating bacertainties of the earlier formulation's universe. Design really implies a decision offtranscending that of decision Preonj as such, because of Prescription, and because of the ability to act deters i i Ristically on the built structure in such a way as to make it the overriding conditioner. Possibly the most comnon© place foundation engineering example can be said to be the use of piles to go through the questionable layers of subsoil: and perhaps et is not without significance that in such pi€ing design, "factors of safety” have been wilfully high. Statistically and probabilistical- ly the change of universe and change of value objective does not contitute with draval of the design decision from analysis and Sedgement by decision theory. However, while the weapons are in the forging I wouid merely guard against the adménition "fools rush in where angels fear to trea". Good design is not yet cornered, from its position of affluence of ingenious ideas, into being better calculation or better estimation of intangible risks.