Exercise on Forecasting –Classroom

Q-1. Below are the actual demand and exponential smoothing forecast for a new product (α = 0.2).
Complete the July and August forecast amounts. What tracking signal value results from
using 6 months of data?

Month March April May June July August

Forecast 110 86 90 100
Actual 80 100 140 110 132 103

Q-2. You have found an old report, parts of which have been eaten by mice with the following
information:
Month Demand (D ) Base Estimate (S )
9 900
10 960
11 942
12 998 934

a. Do you need to know the base estimates for the previous periods (e.g. S11) if you wish to
make forecast for period 13 using the basic exponential smoothing model?
b. If the company was using a basic exponential smoothing model with α = 0.2, what were
S11 and S10?