World Military Expenditures, Armed Forces, and Arms Transfers Report (1989) by the

United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency: Iraq and India compared

This report traces global trend in Military Expenditures, Armed Forces, and Arms Transfers, at

the global, regional, and national levels. There is indication of a decline in total world military

expenditures in 1988 which the report attributes to decreased military spending in developing

countries. Even though the growth rate in military expenditure for the decade 1978-1988

averaged 2.4%, the average for the second half of the decade plummeted to an average of 0.8%

bringing military expenditure down to pre-1985 levels by 1988. The principal cause according to

the report is the significant decline in military expenditure in developing countries, which

accounted for over 70% of the global decline[ CITATION USA89 \p 1-4 \n \t \l 1033 ].

In the Armed Forces of the world the highest level of 29.9 million people was hit in 1985, but by

1988, that number had dropped steadily to 28.4 million persons. This decline however was

accounted for by decline mostly in the developed countries. Developing countries maintained a

steady growth for the number of personnel they had in the armed forces. The Middle East

however accounted for the highest rise in personnel and growth rate. In 1988 the Middle East

was responsible for engaging 11.4% of the world’s armed forces personnel. Iraq and Iran have

experienced extensive growth in their armies resulting in the high growth rate witnessed in the

Middle East [ CITATION USA89 \p 4-6 \n \t \l 1033 ] . Certain factors may account for the high

number of people under arms in the Middle East. The Iran-Iraq war that straddles the decade

could have heightened security awareness resulting in the increase.

Again by 1988, total world arms transfers had declined by a whopping 13%, having peaked at

US$56 billion in 1987. The share of arms trade in total world trade fell to 1.7% in 1988 from a

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high of 2.4% in 1984. It is again interesting to note that the bulk of the decline was due to a

slump in arms imports to developing countries[ CITATION USA89 \p 7 \n \t \l 1033 ].

A comparison of Iraq which is a Middle East country, and India a South East Asian country,

reveal disparity in Military Expenditure (ME) as compared to Central Government Expenditures

(CGE), GNP, per capita, Arms Forces-population ratio etc. By 1978 Iraq was spending more

than twice what India was spending on Military Expenditure even though the Gross National

Product (GNP) of India was double that of Iraq. Military Expenditure (ME) as a percentage of

Central Government Expenditure (CGE), reveal a high percentage of 28% as compared to 19.2%

recorded by India. Iraq appears to be economically well off than India in 1978 as far as the GNP

per capita shows. Iraq’s impressive GNP per capita in 1978 stood at US$7123, while that of

India stood at US$257. However this impressive show in 1978 declined to half this value by

1988, while that of India’s GNP per capita appreciated by more than 70%. The number of people

in the armed forces also appreciated in both countries, Iraq however recorded a constant increase

in personnel and by 1988 it had reached three times the level she had in 1978. This could again

be as a result of the Iraq-Iran war at the time. India on the other hand experienced decrease in

1979 and 1982. The rate however picked up and by 1988 it was just over 5% higher than 1978

figures. The ratio of the Armed Forces to the population in India was 2:1000 in 1978, but this

dropped to 1.7:1000 in 1988. The situation in Iraq was the reverse of what pertained in India.

The Arms Forces-population ratio was 29.5:1000 in 1978, but by 1988 the ratio soared to

56.9:1000 [ CITATION USA89 \p 50-51 \n \t \l 1033 ] .

Iraq was the highest arms importer in the Middle East while India took the highest spot in East

Asia. In the sub-region Iraq and India share the first and second positions respectively as leading

Arms Importers in 1988[ CITATION USA89 \p 10 \n \t \l 1033 ] . The relative burden of military

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expenditure as a percentage of Gross National Product (GNP) per capita index reveals that,

Iraq’s relative burden of military expenditure stood at 10% with a per capita of almost

US$10000. India on the other hand with a modest GNP per capita of less than US$400 in 1978

had a burden percentage of less than 5%[ CITATION USA89 \p 18 \n \t \l 1033 ].

The general slump in World Military Expenditures, Armed Forces, and Arms Transfers has been

credited to the developing world, but the reasons are anybody’s guess. A good one however may

be the general malaise experienced in the economies of most developing countries in the decade

under review. But the records show that, Iraq did not contribute to this general slow down

attributed to the developing world. The record of India however shows that the slump ascribed to

developing countries is mirrored in the case of India. In fact the records show that Iraq’s military

expenditure continued to increase up to 1984, even though a similar growth rate was registered in

India, the fact remains that India had a higher GDP than Iraq. Interestingly however, Iraq’s per

capita continued to drop while that of India appreciated over the period under review. Whereas

Military Expenditure as a percentage of GNP in Iraq registered at 19.2%, that of India stood at

3.6% in 1978. In 1984, the ME/GNP % of Iraq had jumped to 45.3%, while that of India

remained at 3.6% throughout the period. The militarized nature of the Iraqi regime could serve as

explanation for the high percentage ratio of military expenditure, armed forces and arms trade.

Reference:

Agency, U. A. (1989). World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1989. Washington, D.C.: U.S.

Arms Control nad Disarmament Agency.

Agbenu, F.M. (University of Ghana, Legon.) Date : 15/02/10

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