How The Modi Government Spurned Friendly Overtures by China To Move Closer To The US - The Wire PDF

10/16/2016 How the Modi Government Spurned Friendly Overtures by China to Move Closer to the US The Wire
DIPLOMACY
How the Modi

Government
Spurned Friendly
Overtures by China
to Move Closer to
the US
BY P R EM SHANK AR JHA ON 25 /0 7/20 16 • 11 COMMENT S
http://thewire.in/53677/narendramodigovernmentspurningfriendlyovertureschinamovecloserus/ 1/10
File photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Credit:
PTI
China and India’s relationship had begun to warm after the two
countries signed the Agreement for Peace and Tranquility in the Border
Regions, in 1993. Not only did trade between them grow at an
astonishing pace, but they found themselves on the same side of the
fence on a growing range of issues, from climate change to the invasion
of Iraq and the need to build a multipolar world order. The first
unambiguous signal that China was willing to set bilateral issues like
the border dispute and Tibet aside in search of closer and more
structured cooperation on strategic issues came from former premier
Wen Jiabao, when he asked for a meeting with Manmohan Singh, who
was then prime minister, on the sidelines of an ASEAN conference at
Hua Hin, Thailand, in October 2009.
Confrontations on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) had multiplied
during the previous three years. Tensions had heightened further in
2008 when a minirevolt broke out in Tibet on the 50th anniversary of
the Dalai Lama’s flight to India, that the administration in Tibet
ascribed to a conspiracy hatched in Delhi and Lhasa. Finally, by
September 2008, prolonged attention in the international media had
begun to turn a visit by the Dalai Lama to Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh,
to inaugurate a new hospital, into a confrontation between the two
Asian giants that was threatening to spill over into war.
The need to defuse the mounting tension was apparent, so Delhi
welcomed Wen’s initiative. What no one asked was why it was Wen, and
not Singh, who had initiated the meeting. The media concluded that
China had caved in when India ‘stood firm’ on the Dalai Lama’s visit to
Tawang and that this was the way to deal with it in future.
Detailed briefings given by the Chinese foreign office after Wen’s return
showed that what Beijing had wanted was to find a way of preventing
unwelcome media attention from forcing the two countries into a
confrontation that neither wanted. The issue was speedily settled when
Singh decided to ban the international media from Tawang, which is
beyond the Inner Line, and allowed only a handful of Indian
correspondents to cover the event. The rest of the discussions between
him and Wen ranged over strategic issues that affected both China and
India.
Beijing’s relief was writ large in the despatches of Xinhua and reports in
Global Times. In diplomatic demarches, what is not said is usually more
important than what is. The statements emanating from Beijing
referred once more to the Himalayan impasse as a border dispute and
not as an illegal occupation of ‘southern Tibet’. Premier Wen said it
would be resolved ‘gradually’, and would not be allowed to impede
cooperation on other issues. The term ‘South China” was not used. C
3S, the Chennai based centre for China Studies , summed up China’s
goal pithily (http://www.c3sindia.org/india/1009): “Premier Wen Jiabao,
obviously conveying a message from the Chinese leadership, conceded
there was enough space in the world for both China and India to grow”.
The breakthrough at Hua Hin created the launch pad for a Chinese bid
to raise the level of SinoIndian cooperation from the tactical to the
strategic level. A participant at a closed door conference on
India=China relations held by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public
Policy in Singapore, in 2012, defined it as follows: “There can be five
levels of relations between two countries – ranging from total
opposition (level 1) through occasional tactical cooperation (level 3) to
strategic collaboration ( level 5). China and India are on level 3. We
would like to take it to level 5”.
Measured by this yardstick, China and India began moving from level 3
to level 4 at the annual BRICS meeting at Sanya, on Hainan Island, in
April 2011. They began to move from level 4 towards level 5 during the
fourth and fifth BRICS summits at New Delhi and Durban in 2012 and
2013.
The trigger for broadening the scope of cooperation from the economic
to political and strategic issues was provided by NATO’s abuse of the
UN Security Council’s noflyzone resolution to embark upon regime
change by force in Libya, and follow it up with a similar covert attack on
Syria. For China, as indeed for Russia and India, the message was clear:
The invasion of Iraq in 2003 had not been an aberration. For the US,
victory in the Cold War had rendered the UN charter obsolete. The
Westphalian international order that it embodied, and which insisted
that force must be the weapon of last, and not first, resort was therefore
well and truly dead. The world was returning to the ‘constant state of
war’ that the 17th century British philosopher Thomas Hobbes had
described as the state of nature. China decided that it could no longer
rule out becoming America’s and Nato’s next target (only two years
later Russia did become the US’s next target).
BRICS’ Delhi declaration (http://mea.gov.in/bilateraldocuments.htm?
dtl/19158/Fourth+BRICS+Summit++Delhi+Declaration) in 2012 was therefore
twice as long as the one issued at Sanya. It contained the most
comprehensive criticism of the failures of the West that had been voiced
by any group of countries since the end of the Cold War. It demanded
that the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states,
be respected. It condemned the attacks on Libya and Syria, and warned
that the threats to Iran “must not be allowed to escalate into conflict”.
And it explicitly called for the establishment of a multipolar world
order.
The Delhi meeting gave a fresh impetus to China’s efforts to forge
strategic cooperation with Delhi. President Xi Jinping made this clear at
the Durban meeting of the BRICS heads of government in March 2013,
within months of succeeding Hu Jintao.
The signal was a change in the wording of the joint statement with
Singh on the border dispute. From saying that the two countries would
“gradually narrow differences on border issues” it read that they would
“strive for a fair, rational solution framework acceptable to both sides
as soon as possible”.
Break with protocol by President Xi
At the Durban meeting, Xi also broke protocol when he told Singh that
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s first foreign visit would be to India. On
May 13 – days before Li Keqiang’s visit – Wei Wei, China’s ambassador
to India, took what was for the Chinese government the unprecedented
step of writing an oped piece in The Hindu
(http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/oped/fivebasicstohandleourborder
differences/article4699681.ece), urging the Indian government to set aside the
border dispute and focus attention on developing closer relations
between the two countries. As in all diplomatic statements the words
and phrases he used conveyed precise meanings.
“The ChinaIndia boundary question a problem left over from
history … At present, the comprehensive development of China
India relations has created favourable conditions for solving
borderrelated issues. …To strengthen goodneighbourly and
friendly cooperation with India is China’s strategic choice and
established policy which will not change. … Both sides “should
proceed from a strategic height and a holistic perspective…. and
strive for a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the
boundary question at an early date”. (emphases added)
The message could not have been more explicit: China regarded the
border dispute as a legacy of the past, and wanted to get beyond it as
soon as possible in order to cooperate with India on strategic issues of
the future. The more ChinaIndia cooperation increased in the future,
the easier would it be for both countries to find a mutually acceptable
solution. One could not, however, find in history the solution to a
problem created by history. One had, instead to go back to first
principles and approach the task with a willingness to compromise.
Li Keqiang’s visit to India a few weeks later was an unqualified success.
A senior Indian official who was present at his meeting with Manmohan
Singh told me that their discussion had gone so well that it could have
been choreographed. Singh summed up his own impressions in a
formal statement when he said, “ I am delighted that there are so many
areas of convergence between us on which there is a great deal of
meeting of minds”.
Li’s visit set the stage for President Xi Jinping’s visit to India 16 months
later. In the intervening months signs of the importance that Beijing
attached to changing the locus of its relations with India multiplied. The
Indian national day reception at Beijing in January 2014 was attended
by the vice president of China, who delivered a 10 minute speech
extolling the ties that had existed between China and India since
antiquity.
Six months later, when ambassador Ashok Kantha, who had replaced
the current foreign secretary S. Jaishankar, presented his credentials,
he was one of only two out of 14 ambassadors whom President Xi asked
to stay back for a short talk.
Finally, President Xi himself met national security adviser A.K Doval
when he visited Beijing on September 8, 2014 to prepare for his India
visit. The last senior official who was granted this courtesy by a Chinese
president may have been Henry Kissinger in 1970.
Too mired in the past
In Delhi, unfortunately, only those closest to Manmohan Singh and key
members of the foreign policy establishment fully grasped the signals
that Beijing was sending. The intelligentsia, with only a handful of
exceptions, remained too deeply mired in the past to shed its defensive
mindset towards Beijing. This was even more true of the government
that Narendra Modi established, for he not only made it a virtue to cut
all links with those who had made policy during the UPA regime, but
also with those who had done so under Atal Bihari Vajpayee. As a result,
the new government treated President Xi’s visit more as a bilateral
mending of fences, not unmixed with elements of theatre, than the
culmination of a long and patiently sought rapprochement.
Whatever President Xi Jinping may have wanted to achieve during his
visit was, however, sabotaged when Chinese troops surrounded an
Indian outpost at Chumar, in eastern Ladakh, only days before he
arrived in India. With no clear idea of the reasons behind his visit, most
Indian analysts and media pundits jumped to the conclusion that he
had deliberately arranged for this to happen during his visit in order to
remind Modi of just who had the whip hand in Ladakh.
They could not have been more wrong. According to an Indian diplomat
who was present in Ahmedabad when Modi bluntly asked Xi Jinping
what had happened, the Chinese president replied, “I don’t know”, but
promised to find out when he returned to Beijing. For any head of state,
let alone that of China, to have to admit ignorance to his counterpart
when on a state visit must have been embarrassing, if not humiliating.
Again no one asked why Xi should have exposed himself to it by timing
the intrusion for the day before he reached India. That he wasn’t simply
saying the only thing he could have said when confronted by Modi
became apparent when, on September 21, barely a day after he returned
to Beijing, Xi issued a stern reprimand to the PLA to follow the dictates
of the party’s military commission (http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/china
militarytoldtofollowxijinpinginstructions/1/384200.html).
But in the next seven months, as Modi visited Japan, the US, South
Korea, Australia, signed the Joint Strategic Vision for the AsiaPacific
document with Barack Obama and ignored Beijing’s privately voiced
protests, it became apparent to China’s strategists that he had either not
understood its overtures, or had decided to reverse the foreign policy of
the UPA and its preceding three governments and edge into a closer
embrace with the US. As a result its attitude towards India also began to
change.
Prem Shankar Jha is a senior journalist and author of Twilight of the
Nation State: Globalisation, Chaos and War, and Crouching Dragon,
Hidden Tiger, Can China and India Dominate the West?
This is the second of a series of articles by the author on India’s foreign
policy. The first one can be read here. (http://thewire.in/52780/thebasement
saleofindiassovereignity/)
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11 Comments The Wire  omnicrave
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Join the discussion…
ProgressForIndia • 3 months ago
The author is giving us a nice, syrupy sweet and rosy HindiChini
BhaiBhai bedtime story. Tender and caring China was trying very
hard to show affection to India, but Evil Modi snatched India away to
put it in the arms of Uncle Sam.
Is the author not noticing the Chinese submarines showing up in
Pakistani ports? What about the Chinese special forces who are
advising Pakistani troops on their side of the LoC, and even building
bunkers for them. What about all the nice shiny new weapons China
is providing to Pakistan?
The author wants to feed us his slanted fairytale, just like Nehru fed
us HindiChini BhaiBhai.
4 △ ▽ • Reply • Share ›
IAF101 • 3 months ago
Time to stop walking on egg shells around the Chinese and their 2
faced game of cloak and daggers.
Congratulate PM Modi for treating China just like any other country
Congratulate PM Modi for treating China just like any other country
and compartmentalize the border conflict with China without
resorting to the same hesitancy of his predecessors in dealing with
other nations.
Rituraj Rao • 3 months ago
This article presents halftruths and convenient economic account of
events. It avoids mentioning that Premier Li Keqiang's visit in 2013
was about to be cancelled because a month prior to his visit, a gang of
Chinese soldiers came in Depsang Plains, crossed LAC and stayed in
tents for 21 days inside Indian territory. The situation became so tense
that all over world leaders became worried of China and India
heading towards conflict. The issue was resolved after hectic rounds
of diplomacy and military negotiations. The event, nevertheless,
reduced Manmohan Singh's stature in Indian eyes visavis China
and henceforth, he never recovered from being touted as a gutless,
spineless old hag. Thereafter, the standoff in Demchok, Chumar and
many more were deliberately created by China to reduce Indian
growing stature in the International politics. The retaliation from the
current Indian government was naturally expected. Chinese are
getting now from the present Modi government what they deserve.
Jha should stop hiding facts and give a truthful account of events.
Karthik S P • 3 months ago
I believe the writer needs to be educated on China's legacy policy of
containing India in South Asia of "boxing India in", by its "all
weather" relationship with Pakistan. He needs to ask himself how our
other perpetually hostile neighbour got nuclear. He needs to ask
himself why the Chinese are investing billions of dollars in Pakistan, a
sinking ship. India is the strategic glue that binds together this Sino
Pakistani axis. One would have to be extremely naive to believe that
their relationship is not aimed at India and that they genuinely want
to improve relations.
Manav Bharatiya • 3 months ago
The Modi government effectively countered the Chinese in their bid to
encicle us by denying them a port at Srilanka. It has nearly debunked
Chinese overtures in Nepal as Oli failed to harness Prachanda's
support dispite chinese mechinations to the contrary. It has
courageously gone ahead with Chabahar port as a counter to the
Chinese efforts in Gwadar. And most importantly it has called the
chinese bluff (that the chinese were feeding Dr Manmohan Singh's
led gullible government) by exposing them as the sole opponent
(though not for long) to india being a part of the Nuclear Suppliers'
(though not for long) to india being a part of the Nuclear Suppliers'
Group. It is best that India maintain its principled stand on South
China Sea and seek allies like Japan and the US to counter the
Chinese hegemony in the SCS. The point that the Chinese have built a
road connecting China and Pakistan through POK and the fact that it
continues to use pakistan as its proxy by proliferating nuclear and
missile technologies to pakistan in its attempt to draw an unfounded
and baseless parity between the two countries (not to mention its love
for proclaimed terrorists like Hafiz Sayed) is not lost to the Indians.
Narahari Javaji • 3 months ago
it is like a global times editorial ,totally ignored china pakistan axis
Thrive thrive • 3 months ago
Joint border patrol at the pok borders are friendly overtures, Mr. Jha?
Vincent Chin • 2 months ago
I don’t understand why only the Indian side keeps harping and
barking about the border intrusions when the border is not even
demarcated. While the Chinese would remain mum whenever the
Indians intrude on the Chinese side. To make matters worse, the
Indian media constantly plays a hyperactive role in stirring up
nationalistic sentiments allowing Modi the opportunity to play
‘cowboy’ by confronting Xi in public. The mobilisation of 100 tanks to
the border recently by India is not useful. Many forgot that it was the
Chinese who taught the Indians a lesson when China successfully
seized parts of Arunachal Pradesh in 1962 but magnanimously
returned them back to India in order to wake Nehru up from his
‘Forward Policy’ pipedream. Today, we see an adventurous Modi
taking sides with the US alliance to try to contain China’s rise.
Naturally, China has to react and recalibrate their foreign policies
visavis India. It is not surprising therefore that the Indians took the
submarine docking incident in Sri Lanka in the worst possible way in
order to paint China as an imaginary enemy. In any case, 1962 has
shown us that China has no intention of invading or occupying India.
Instead, it has shown us that whoever treats China as a friend, China

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10/16/2016 How the Modi Government Spurned Friendly Overtures by China to Move Closer to the US The Wire

How the Modi

India is Losing an 'India, China Must A Lot of Pomp And Show

11 Comments The Wire  omnicrave

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How the Modi

India is Losing an 'India, China Must A Lot of Pomp And Show

11 Comments The Wire  omnicrave

 Recommend ⤤ Share Sort by Best

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10/16/2016 How the Modi Government Spurned Friendly Overtures by China to Move Closer to the US The Wire