Independent

Harry picks a marble at random, puts it back, and then picks

another marble at random.

Dirk spins the spinner twice.

You flip a coin twice. What is P(tails, heads)?

A fair die is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting a 4 or 5 on the first
toss and a 1, 2, or 3 in the second toss.
P(E1) = P(4 or 5) = \displaystyle\frac{2}{{6}}=\frac{1}{{3}}62=31
P(E2) = P(1, 2 or 3) \displaystyle=\frac{3}{{6}}=\frac{1}{{2}}=63=21
They are independent events, so
\displaystyle{P}{\left({E}_{{1}}\ \text{ and }\ {E}_{{2}}\right)} P(E1 and E2
) \displaystyle={P}{\left({E}_{{1}}\right)}\times{P}
{\left({E}_{{2}}\right)}=P(E1)×P(E2) \displaystyle=\frac{1}
{{3}}\times\frac{1}{{2}}=31×21 \displaystyle=\frac{1}{{6}}=61

Dependent
You pick a card at random. Without putting the first card back, you
pick a second card at random.
Riley and her sister are picking out dresses to wear from Riley's
closet. Riley picks a dress, and then her sister picks next.
Akash pulls a coin out of his pocket and places it on the table. Then
he reaches back into his pocket and takes out a second coin.
Two balls are drawn successively without replacement from a box which
contains \displaystyle{4}4 white balls and \displaystyle{3}3 red balls.
Find the probability that
(a) the first ball drawn is white and the second is red;
(b) both balls are red.
Two dice are rolled. Using the formal definition of independence, determine
whether events A and B are independent or dependent.
A: Rolling 1 on the first die.
B: The dice summing to 8.

Example 1
If the probability that person A will be alive in \displaystyle{20}20 years
is \displaystyle{0.7}0.7 and the probability that person B will be alive
in \displaystyle{20}20years is \displaystyle{0.5}0.5, what is the probability that they will
both be alive in \displaystyle{20}20 years?

Answer

These are independent events, so

P(E1 and E2) = P(E1) × P(E2) = 0.7 × 0.5 = 0.35

[Note, however, that if person A knows person B, then they will be dependent events,
especially if A is married to B.]

Example 2

A fair die is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting a 4 or 5 on the first toss and a 1, 2,
or 3 in the second toss.

P(E1) = P(4 or 5) = \displaystyle\frac{2}{{6}}=\frac{1}{{3}}62=31

P(E2) = P(1, 2 or 3) \displaystyle=\frac{3}{{6}}=\frac{1}{{2}}=63=21

They are independent events, so

\displaystyle{P}{\left({E}_{{1}}\ \text{ and }\ {E}_{{2}}\right)}P(E1 and E2

) \displaystyle={P}{\left({E}_{{1}}\right)}\times{P}
{\left({E}_{{2}}\right)}=P(E1)×P(E2) \displaystyle=\frac{1}{{3}}\times\frac{1}
{{2}}=31×21 \displaystyle=\frac{1}{{6}}=61
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Example 3

Two balls are drawn successively without replacement from a box which
contains \displaystyle{4}4 white balls and \displaystyle{3}3 red balls. Find the probability
that

(a) the first ball drawn is white and the second is red;

(b) both balls are red.

Answer

(a) The second event is dependent on the first.

P(E1) = P(white) = \displaystyle\frac{4}{{7}}74

There are 6 balls left and out of those 6, three of them are red. So the probability that the second
one is red is given by:

P(E2 | E1) = P(red) \displaystyle=\frac{3}{{6}}=\frac{1}{{2}}=63=21

Dependent events, so

\displaystyle{P}{\left({E}_{{1}}\ \text{and}\ {E}_{{2}}\right)}={P}

{\left({E}_{{1}}\right)}\times{P}{\left({E}_{{2}}{|}{E}_{{1}}\right)}P(E1 and
E2)=P(E1)×P(E2∣E1) \displaystyle=\frac{4}{{7}}\times\frac{1}{{2}}=\frac{2}
{{7}}=74×21=72

(b) Also dependent events. Using similar reasoning, but realising there will be 2 red balls on the
second draw, we have:

\displaystyle{P}{\left({R}{R}\right)}=\frac{3}{{7}}\times\frac{2}
{{6}}=\frac{1}{{7}}P(RR)=73×62=71

Example 4

A bag contains \displaystyle{5}5 white marbles, \displaystyle{3}3 black marbles

and \displaystyle{2}2 green marbles. In each draw, a marble is drawn from the bag and not
replaced. In three draws, find the probability of obtaining white, black and green in that order.

Answer

We have 3 dependent events.

\displaystyle{P}{\left({W}_{{1}}\right)}\times{P}
{\left({B}_{{2}}\right.}P(W1)×P(B2 | \displaystyle{\left.
{W}_{{1}}\right)}\timesW1)× \displaystyle{P}{\left({G}_{{3}}{|}{\left.
{B}_{{2}}\ \text{ and }\ {W}_{{1}}\right)}\right.}P(G3∣B2 and W1
) \displaystyle=\frac{5}{{10}}\times\frac{3}{{9}}\times\frac{2}{{8}}=105×93
×82 \displaystyle=\frac{1}{{24}}=241