4/29/2019 MATH428Essay - Google Docs

ENGR428/MATH428 Numerical Methods

Case Study

John M. Cloud, James Todd, Jacob Alderink, John Ashby

Case Description – Solving a Pest Problem

Farmer John’s crops are being eaten by a specific kind of beetle; this beetle is then consumed by a local
bird population. Normally, these two populations keep each other in check. However, John walks into his
field one day, and notices a larger than normal beetle population. He is worried that too large a portion
of his crops will be eaten for the sale of them to be profitable. At the beginning of the growing season,
the farm is home to 500 tons of Crops, 110 thousand beetles (110 observed), and 100 birds (10
observed). If John drops below 50 percentage of his crops by the end of the season in 100 days, he will
no longer be able turn a profit. Therefore, John is considering spraying pesticide on his crops, which
while taking 40% of his potential profits, will decrease the amount of beetles ruining his crops (each
tonnage of crop is worth $150 USD per ton). Because this would be so costly, he should only do so if
absolutely necessary. John will need to consult a statistician to determine if spraying his crops is a wise
decision.

Analysis

The initial populations of the farm will play a large role in growth interaction, as the amount of each
consumed will affect the growth of the population above it.

Let X, Y and Z be the populations for nutrients, prey and predator nutrient population

Let B be the prey conversions rate upon consumption by predators

Let ah be the nutrient conversation rate for prey

g and d are death rates for prey and predators, respectively

m1 and m2 are maximum nutrient intakes for prey and predators, respectively

k is the washout rate for nutrients in the absence of prey

xh is the constant nutrient concentration

b, while not being utilized in this system, is the intratrophic predation rate, ergo predators eating
competition.

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Our system consists of 3 equations:

For updating our nutrient populations:

dX = (k*(xh-X)-(m1*X*Y)/(a1+X))*dT
For updating our prey populations:
dY = ((ah*m1*X*Y)/(a1+X)-(m2*Y*Z)/(a2+Y+b*Z)-g*Y)*dT
For updating our predator populations:
dZ = ((B*m2*(Y+b*Z)*Z)/(a2+Y+b*Z)-(m2*b*Z*Z)/(a2+Y+b*Z))*dT

With initial conditions of X(0) = 500, Y(0) = 110, and Z(0) = 10

Numerical Methods Involved:

The statistician will complete 3 tasks in plotting the population trajectories affecting John’s farm:

● Determine a reasonable sampling rate to see if the conclusions reached are logical
● Use Euler’s Method for each equation in order to track resident populations with the reasonable
sampling rate obtained
● Analyze whether applying the pesticide will yield greater profits in the long term

Solution Outline and Results

The statistician first had to determine a step size that would result in a stable analysis of the
system of the differential equations, this means that he had to find a sampling rate that resulted in
reasonable values for the populations.

He first attempted to have a sampling size of every 6 days in order to decrease the amount of
time the computer would need to run the calculation, however he found that such a large step-size
resulted in an unstable plot, as seen in the figure below.

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He next attempted to sample every 5 days. This sampling size turned out to create a stable
differential system resulting in accurate values for the given step size. This can be seen in this graph.

However he found that by further decreasing the step size and sample time, this would result in
a more accurate prediction of values for the population model. He thus decided to try sampling every
minute and a half in order to get the best data he could to evaluate the farmers circumstances. Resulting
the values shown below.

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With the step size determined the statistician went about evaluating the necessity of pesticides
for the farmer. He found that in order for the farmers endeavours to be profitable he would need to
return 250 tons of crops (depicted as the red line below).

The statistician then determined what the growth would be like if a pesticide was utilized by the farmer.
He determined the cost of the pesticide across his entire farm to be equivalent to 150 tons of crop. Thus
in order for the farmer to remain profitable he would have to have a growth of 350 tons of crop
(depicted as the red line below).

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Conclusion

Without pesticides to kill the emerging beetle population, by the end of the season, the farmer would
only produce ~200 tons of crops, resulting in an unprofitable season for the farmer. With pesticides
however the beetle population would be subdued resulting in the farmer producing around 950 tons of
crops, which is well above the required 350 in order to have a profitable season. Thus the statistician
concluded that in order for the farmers endeavours to result in a season of profit, pesticides would be
necessary to kill of the beetle population allow his crop to grow.

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