Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Data Mining QFD For The Dynamic Forecasting of Life Cycle Under Green Supply Chain
Data Mining QFD For The Dynamic Forecasting of Life Cycle Under Green Supply Chain
Data Mining QFD For The Dynamic Forecasting of Life Cycle Under Green Supply Chain
Abstract: - The satisfaction of customer requirements is critical issue for the computer designers and
manufacturers, because computer design is a high risk and value-added technology. When considering green
design, designers should incorporate the voices from the customers and because they are the driving force. On
the other hand, data mining from large marketing database has been successfully applied in a number of
advanced fields. However, little study has been done in the quality function deployment of identifying future
customer requirements for computer design and manufacture, using data mining. This study uses data mining
cycle in QFD to forecast future customer requirements for green design of life cycle. The use of time series-
based data mining cycle to predict the weights is advantageous because it can (1) find the future trend of
customer requirements; (2) provide the computer designers and manufacturers with reference points to satisfy
customer requirements in advance. The results of this study can provide an effective procedure of identifying
the trends of customer requirements and enhance dynamic forecasting of life cycle under green supply chain in
the computer marketplace.
Key-Words: - Data mining, Quality function deployment, Customer requirements, Dynamic forecasting, Life
cycle, Green supply chain.
mining. This study applied a time series-based data Raychem, applied QFD to improving
mining cycle for dynamic forecasting of product life communication, product development [1, 2].
cycle, using sales questionnaire database, to identify QFD has been widely applied to achieve CRs
future CRs for the computer designers and and improve customer satisfaction in many fields.
manufacturers. By applying the proposed approach, Some researchers defined QFD as follows: “This
future CRs can be found from a large database to technology focuses and coordinates skills within an
enhance their competitiveness in the computer organization, first to design, then to manufacture
marketplace. This procedure help manufacturers and market products that customers want to
reduce the use of material, work force, money, purchase and will continue to purchase [6].” Some
energy, etc., and the greatest impact is to drastically companies have claimed great success with QFD.
shorten the cycle time of product production. Finally, Proponents assert that QFD has helped them reduce
customer opinions are actually listened and production costs, design time and cost; increase
responded by the best alternative in the drawing customer satisfaction and product quality [2, 27].
board such that green compatibility can be QFD is a cross-functional planning tool which is
considered in the early phases. used to ensure that the voice of the customer is
deployed throughout the product planning and
design stages. QFD is used to encourage
2 Related Research breakthrough thinking of new concepts and
technology. Its use facilitates the process of
concurrent engineering and encourages teamwork to
2.1 Quality function deployment
work towards a common goal of ensuring customer
Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is a
satisfaction. Because the voice of the customer is
Japanese development and design technology [15].
essential, the House of Quality (HOQ) converts each
QFD was first introduced by Akao in 1972 at
CR into one or more engineering characteristics
Mitsubishi’s Kobe shipyard site, and then Toyota
(ECs) in the first phase of QFD. The main goal of
and its suppliers developed it further for a rust
HOQ is to identify CRs and weights for the product
prevention study [10]. After the concept of QFD
(WHATs) and then to convert these needs into ECs
was introduced in the US through auto
(HOWs). The components of HOQ are shown in
manufacturers and parts suppliers [18], many US
Figure 1.
firms, such as AT&T, Digital Equipment, Ford,
GM, Hewlett-Packard, Procter & Gamble, and
2.2 Life Cycle Assessment time series. This technique is used a lot of
Zust and Wagner [24] explained four phases of the time in planned experimental analysis.
the product life cycle: (1) product definition, (2)
(5). Explanative analysis using one or more
product development, (3) product manufacturing
variable time series, a mechanism that results
and marketing, and (4) product usage. At each of
these phases, there exists a definition of objectives, in a dependent time series can be estimated
[11].
activities, and deliverables for the next phase. Keys
[16] explained that during the conceptual model One of the most important forecasting
phase, various design models of the product are techniques is exponential smoothing analysis for
generated. From these conceptual models, time series analysis. Forecasts generated with this
requirements, and specifications will evolve method are a weighted average of the past values of
decisions for breadboard and brassbound models. the variable. The weights decline for older
Within the LCA framework, the greatest challenge observations. The rationale is that more recent
is the assessment of the impacts associated with observations are more inuential than older
environmental releases during the manufacturing, observations. The exponential smoothing analysis
transportation, use and disposal of products. Also, is,
the Hewlett-Packard addressed the life-cycle issue
by prototyping software, defining development and
phases, and standardizing modules and packages
[29].
Ft = Ft −1 + α ( At −1 − Ft −1 ) (1)
four period questionnaires; this resulted in a huge The data was processed, and analyzed, in order
amount of data. to enhance the efficiency and ensure the accuracy of
The intent of this study was to explore and the results [21]. Before mining the data, it had to be
analyze a huge amount of data, by employing a time checked and processed, with all abnormal or
series-based data mining cycle in QFD, so as to missing data being separated out. As a result, of the
identify the weights within customer questionnaires 18,000 questionnaires, 363, which had missing or
in each period. Based on these the weights of CRs, abnormal data, were deleted; this left a total of
the future CRs for dynamic forecasting of life cycle 17637 valid questionnaires regarding the operating
under green supply chain may be discovered and the CRs. There are night CRs and ten ECs for each
results can be encouraged and beneficial the questionnaire, as shown in Table 1 and Table 2. The
computer designers and manufacturers. green QFD matrix for computer is as shown in
Figure 2.
4.2 Data preparation and analysis
Manufactu
Disassem-
Transpor-
Disposal
Material
Usage
tation
Raw
ring
bly
Weights EC1 EC2 EC3 EC4 EC5 EC6 EC7 EC8 EC9 EC10
CR1 3 9 3 9 1 1
CR2 9 3 9 9 1 9 3 9 9
CR3 3 1 9 9 3 9 9 1
CR4 1 3 9 3 1 3 3
CR5 3 1 1 3 3 9 3 9 9
CR6 1 9 9 1 1 9 3
CR7 3 1 1 3 9 3 3
CR8 1 3 3 3
CR9 9 3 1 1 1 9 3 9
Importance of EC
Fig. 2 The green QFD matrix for computer.
CR1 6.3 3 9 3 9 1 1
CR2 5.6 9 3 9 9 1 9 3 9 9
CR3 7.2 3 1 9 9 3 9 9 1
CR4 4.8 1 3 9 3 1 3 3
CR5 5.4 3 1 1 3 3 9 3 9 9
CR6 6.7 1 9 9 1 1 9 3
CR7 6.3 3 1 1 3 9 3 3
CR8 5.9 1 3 3 3
CR9 6.2 9 3 1 1 1 9 3 9
Importance of EC 174.4 84.6 89.7 170.7 250.1 124.4 97.1 289.5 300 221.7
the accuracy of forecast in this study. The MSE is Taking the CR1 as an example, the mean
the average of the squared forecast errors. Forecast squared error is 0.68. Furthermore, the study
error is defined as the difference between actual calculated the double control limit for the control
value and the forecast. charts of forecast. Because the upper control limit is
1.65 and lower control limit is -1.65 in the study, all
of the forecast errors of CR1 were under the double
n
∑ (Ai − Fi )
2
control limit, as shown in Table 6. The forecast
errors in other CRs are less than the double control
MSE = i = 1
n − 1 (2) limit. Thus, the exponential smoothing analysis is
clearly quite accurate.
Per iod 1
8.0
Per iod 2
Per iod 3
Per iod 4
Per iod 5 pr edicted weights
7.0
6.0
5.0
CR 1 CR 2 CR 3 CR 4 CR 5 CR 6 CR 7 CR 8 CR 9
EC 1
350.0
EC 2
EC 3
EC 4
300.0 EC 5
EC 6
EC 7
250.0 EC 8
EC 9
EC 10
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
In addition, the future trend of each EC to satisfy The data mining cycle emphasizes the dataset
future CRs can be analysed in Table 6. According to information by repeating interaction activities. Since
the future trend of each EC, many ECs should be CRs can change rapidly, the database of CRs must be
closely noticed since its importance has increased and updated continually; therefore, the time series-based
could become the most important ECs to satisfy CRs data mining cycle, proposed in this study, will
in the future. On the other hand, the importance of continually update the database and continually
EC2, EC5, EC6 have declined in the future. Different identify the future CRs for the computer designers
ECs should be considered differently for the and manufacturers. These revised ECs will exactly
computer designers and manufacturers with the much satisfy with CRs, allowing the computer designers
more analysed information. and manufacturers to the latest CRs, thus facilitating
advanced design for green computers.
Table 6 Future trend of ten ECs for dynamic forecasting of life cycle
EC1 EC2 EC3 EC4 EC5 EC6 EC7 EC8 EC9 EC10
Period 1 174.4 84.6 89.7 170.7 250.1 124.4 97.1 289.5 300 221.7
Period 2 157.9 67.7 73.6 159 238.2 125.2 87.8 259.3 274.8 206.3
Period 3 178.5 70.4 79.7 182.5 263 136.8 107.1 294.2 308.4 231
Period 4 200.1 89.1 97.7 198.1 289.5 151.7 112.7 312.7 342.5 262.9
Period 5
204.4 87.9 98.4 201.5 286.3 147.7 114.6 316.6 344.9 264.2
predicted weights