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    Solution:: Representativeness Heuristic and Closely Related Base Rate Neglect

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    Kate Bolonnikova
    This document contains: 1) An explanation of Bayes' rule for calculating conditional probability. 2) An example problem applying Bayes' rule to calculate the probability that Brian is a pilot given information about his personality traits and the base rates of different professions in the population. 3) A note that most people intuitively guess a higher probability due to neglecting the base rates, exemplifying errors from cognitive biases.

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    Solution:: Representativeness Heuristic and Closely Related Base Rate Neglect

    Uploaded by

    Kate Bolonnikova
    7 views1 page
    This document contains: 1) An explanation of Bayes' rule for calculating conditional probability. 2) An example problem applying Bayes' rule to calculate the probability that Brian is a pilot given information about his personality traits and the base rates of different professions in the population. 3) A note that most people intuitively guess a higher probability due to neglecting the base rates, exemplifying errors from cognitive biases.

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    Behavioral econ

    Original Title

    Bayes Rule

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    This document contains: 1) An explanation of Bayes' rule for calculating conditional probability. 2) An example problem applying Bayes' rule to calculate the probability that Brian is a pilot given information about his personality traits and the base rates of different professions in the population. 3) A note that most people intuitively guess a higher probability due to neglecting the base rates, exemplifying errors from cognitive biases.

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    7 views1 page

    Solution:: Representativeness Heuristic and Closely Related Base Rate Neglect

    Uploaded by

    Kate Bolonnikova
    This document contains: 1) An explanation of Bayes' rule for calculating conditional probability. 2) An example problem applying Bayes' rule to calculate the probability that Brian is a pilot given information about his personality traits and the base rates of different professions in the population. 3) A note that most people intuitively guess a higher probability due to neglecting the base rates, exemplifying errors from cognitive biases.

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    Kodaverdian, Pomona College, 2018

    BAYES’ RULE

    𝑃 (𝐵|𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴)
    𝑃 (𝐴|𝐵) =
    𝑃(𝐵)
    𝑃 (𝐵|𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴)
    =
    𝑃 (𝐵|𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃 (𝐵|¬𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(¬𝐴)

    Example:

    Suppose there are 2 possible professions: pilot and physician. Of a nation’s labor force, 75% are
    physicians and 25% are pilots. Brian is described as being competitive, practical, goal-oriented,
    and is said to like “toys.” The probability of someone in this population to have a profession-
    appropriate personality given either profession is 60% (so there is a 40% chance of meeting
    someone whose personality is not appropriate for the profession they have). What is the
    probability that Brian is a pilot?

    Solution:
    𝑃(𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦|𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡) ∙ 𝑃(𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡)
    𝑃(𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡|𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦) =
    𝑃(𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦)

    𝑃(𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦|𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡) ∙ 𝑃 (𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡)


    =
    𝑃(𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦|𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡) ∙ 𝑃 (𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡) + 𝑃(𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑜𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦|𝑝ℎ𝑦𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑛) ∙ 𝑃(𝑝ℎ𝑦𝑠𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑛)

    (0.6) ∙ (0.25)
    =
    (0.6) ∙ (0.25) + (0.4) ∙ (0.75)

    = 33.33 %

    So, the probability that Brian is a pilot is 33.33%.

    Most people would have guessed a higher value, mistakenly equating the conditional
    probability of having a pilot-like personality given someone is a pilot with the conditional
    probability of being a pilot given someone has a pilot-like personality. This exemplifies the
    representativeness heuristic and closely related base rate neglect.

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