6/26/2019 Future of Pak-US relations - Newspaper - DAWN.

COM

PAKISTAN’s long, close and turbulent relationship with the US has had a pervasive
impact on this country’s history. The last phase of that relationship, the ‘war on
terror’ alliance, ended in August 2017, when Donald Trump announced a punitive
policy towards Pakistan, suspending high-level contacts, freezing Coalition Support
Funds repayments and demanding Pakistan’s cooperation on Afghanistan.

Read: America suspends entire security aid to Pakistan

Over the next 18 months, America’s initially coercive demands on Afghanistan became
progressively realistic, eventually asking Islamabad to help start direct talks between the US and the
Afghan Taliban.

Pakistan has delivered on this request. Several rounds of US-Taliban talks, held mostly in Doha,
have reportedly led to draft agreements for withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and to
prevent Afghanistan’s territory from being used as a base for global terrorism in future. However,
the Taliban have refused to talk to what they call the ‘puppet’ government in Kabul or to accept a
ceasefire until US troop withdrawal is under way.

The US has not offered Pakistan any tangible concessions in exchange for its assistance. Contrary to
earlier assurances that Islamabad would have no responsibility for the talks’ outcome, it is now
asking that Pakistan play an important role in achieving a successful conclusion of the ‘peace
process’.

US demands have been extended to the eastern front. During and after the Pulwama mini-crisis, US
pressure was ratcheted up — directly and through the UN and the FATF — to demand actions
against the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad and the inclusion of JeM’s Maulana Azhar on
the UN Security Council’s ‘terrorism’ list.

America’s new hostility towards Pakistan is

due mostly to its emerging global rivalry
with China.

Islamabad has seen it in its own interest to comply with the demands to proscribe the activities of
the LeT and JeM. It has also continued its cooperation on Afghanistan. However, this may not
prove sufficient to restore friendly ties with the US.

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6/26/2019 Future of Pak-US relations - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

America’s new hostility towards Pakistan is due mostly to its emerging global rivalry with China, in
which India has been chosen as Washington’s strategic partner whereas Pakistan is listed on
China’s side of the power equation. The recently announced US South Asia Policy is predicated on
India’s regional domination.

Read: Pakistan wants ‘proper ties’ with US like its relations with China

If Pakistan is to establish an equitable relationship with the US, it will have to build the capability to
resist India-US military, financial and domestic pressure. To do so, it needs strong and nationally-
oriented governance and China’s unreserved cooperation.

Pakistan is well placed to resist military pressure. The Pulwama mini-crisis demonstrated two
things: one, that Pakistan can defend itself by conventional means; two, that nuclear deterrence
worked once again to moderate military behaviour on both sides. Yet, India is embarked on a major
arms acquisition and modernisation process which Pakistan will have to continue to neutralise if
not match. Most importantly, Pakistan must disabuse India of any presumption that, under a US
umbrella, it could ‘test’ Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence or resort to a pre-emptive strike against
Pakistan’s strategic assets. A Pakistani ‘second strike’ capability will eliminate this danger.

Pakistan’s financial defences are vulnerable. The nation needs to come together to implement the
politically difficult yet vital tax and other measures required to ensure a sustained balance in the
country’s fiscal and external accounts. For the longer term, Pakistan should join the nascent efforts
of China, Russia and some other countries to construct alternate or supplementary arrangements to
the US-dominated financial system.

Likewise, Pakistan is not fully equipped to fight the ‘hybrid’ war being waged by India and others in
Balochistan, ex-Fata, sections of the media and politics to destabilise the country domestically.
Using all the tools of modern technology, Pakistan must develop a sophisticated intelligence,
counter-insurgency and political action capability for defence.

‘Defensive’ measures do not imply systemic hostility with the US. There are vast areas for mutually
beneficial cooperation which can be promoted as long as the US does not threaten Pakistan’s core
interests and positions, especially its rejection of Indian domination and support for Kashmiri self-
determination.

Counterterrorism, regional arms control and global non-proliferation are identified issues for
continued cooperation.

Trade and investment are the most promising areas to build a future Pakistan-US relationship. The
US is Pakistan’s prime export market. Pakistani exports are held back due to lack of competitive

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