Far East Journal of Mathematical Sciences (FJMS)

© 2018 Pushpa Publishing House, Allahabad, India

http://www.pphmj.com
http://dx.doi.org/10.17654/MS103030561
Volume 103, Number 3, 2018, Pages 561-571 ISSN: 0972-0871

ANALYSIS OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF

POPULATION DYNAMICS APPLIED TO
PHILIPPINE POPULATION GROWTH

Harold Jan R. Terano

Camarines Sur Polytechnic Colleges (CSPC)
Nabua, Camarines Sur
Philippines

Abstract

Philippines is a sovereign country in the Southeast Asia. It has an area

of 300,000 square kilometers. Its location along the Pacific Ring of
Fire and closer to the equator makes it prone to earthquakes and
typhoons. It is considered to be the seventh most populated country
in Asia and twelfth most populated country in the world. This paper
considers the mathematical models of the Philippine population
growth and compares these models. The developed models are the
exponential growth model (also known as Malthusian model), the
hyperbolic growth model, the logistic growth model (also known as
Verhulst model), the Gompertz model, the coalition model and the
regression model (using cubic regression analysis). Based on the
results, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of exponential
growth model is 7.766% (highly accurate), the hyperbolic model
is 19.617% (good), the logistic growth model is 0.616% (highly
accurate), the Gompertz model is 5.306% (highly accurate), the
coalition model is 5.689% (highly accurate) and the regression model
Received: February 25, 2017; Revised: August 8, 2017; Accepted: August 18, 2017
2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D25.
Keywords and phrases: population growth model, Philippine population growth, population
models, population growth, mathematical model.
562 Harold Jan R. Terano
is 0.468% (highly accurate). It is found out that the logistic growth
model and the regression model are most accurate of the entire
developed models for its projection from 1960 to 2015. The projected
population of the country using this logistic growth model is about
115.266 million and 113.704 million using the regression model by the
year 2025.

1. Introduction

Mathematical modeling is a mathematical tool in treating the use of

mathematics in explaining phenomena arising in the environment. This tool
is being used widely in the field of applied mathematics and engineering.
This is the process of illustrating the reality in terms of the language of
mathematics commonly by the aid of mathematical and computational
techniques. Mathematical models made use of the concepts of higher
approach in mathematics commonly using differential equations and
numerical methods and analysis.

Population model is a mathematical model applied on population

dynamics. Mathematical modeling can be used for a number of different
reasons. The objectives include: (1) developing scientific understanding; (2)
test the effect of change in a system; and (3) aid decision making including
tactical decisions by managers and strategic decisions by planners [1].
Models and methods have been used in producing forecasts of population
growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the
model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population
models are presented. In this study, the Leslie modeling approach involves
the use of the current trends in mortality, fertility, migration and emigration
[2]. Logistic growth model in modeling the Rwanda’s population growth
was conducted. The researchers used the data during 1980-2008. From the
study, they found out that the carrying capacity for the population of
Rwanda is 77208025.64 and the vital coefficients a and b are 0.03 and
3.88566419 × 10−10 , respectively, [3]. Malthus’ model of population growth
 Analysis of Mathematical Models of Population Dynamics … 563
was used as a reference and establishes the mathematical model 1 about
China’s population size and time by adopting the methods of regression and
fitting; second through the adaptation of linear multiple regression method to
make regression and fitting on the total number of population and the three
factors, s ternary linear regression model 2 is made; finally it is found that
two factors: mortality rate and birth rate have great significance for the
number of population, by using multiple regression, establish the model 3
[4].

Logistic growth model was used in modeling the Uganda’s population

growth, employing the data during 1980-2010. From the study, it is found
out that the carrying capacity for the population of Uganda is 295267612 and
the vital coefficients a and b are 0.0356 and 1.20569 × 10−10 , respectively,
[5]. The study was presented to explore and apply logistic equation as a
mathematical model. Results showed that the logistic equation can be used
to predict or describe some business and economic systems as well as
describing the effects of the measures employed by the different sectors as to
the problems associated with the areas of concern [6]. Mathematical models
to predict the population growth of Ghana were presented. The researchers
used the exponential growth and logistic growth models using the data from
1960 to 2011. Based on the result, they concluded that the exponential model
gave the good forecasting result as compared to the logistic model [7].

2. Methods and Data Gathering

In relation with the gathering of data, the researcher collected census

data of the Philippines during 1960-2015. These data were collected from
international sources which include: (1) United Nations Population Division:
World Population Prospects, (2) United Nations Statistical Division:
Population and Vital Statistics Report, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics,
(4) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography
Programme and (5) US Census Bureau: International Database. These data
were completed during 1960-2015.
564 Harold Jan R. Terano
3. Analysis of the Models

3.1. Exponential growth model

The Malthusian growth model or Malthusian law, also known as the
exponential growth model or exponential law is a model for population
growth proposed by Thomas R. Malthus in 1798. According to this
model, “the time rate of change of population is proportional to the present
population”, therefore, mathematically,

dP
∝ P,
dt

dP
= aP.
dt

The solution is

P = P0 e at ,

where P is the population at any time t and P0 is the initial population.

3.2. Hyperbolic growth model

With the exponential growth model, the differential equation is

dP
= kP.
dt

The solution is
P0
P= .
1 − at

3.3. Logistic growth model

According to the logistic growth model (also known as Verhulst law),
a − bP
carrying capacity was incorporated. The new term will be introduced,
a
where a and b are the vital coefficients of the population, thus,
a − bP ⎞
= aP⎛⎜
dP
⎟.
dt ⎝ a ⎠
 Analysis of Mathematical Models of Population Dynamics … 565
The solution is

KP0
Pmax = limt → ∞ = K.
P0 + ( K − P0 ) e − at

a
The carrying capacity is K = . This determines the theoretical
b
maximum population size that can be sustained indefinitely.
3.4. The Gompertz model

= aP ln⎛⎜ ⎞⎟ , where a and K are the

dP K
The Gompertz equation is
dt ⎝P⎠
positive constants.
Solving the differential equation

= aP ln⎛⎜ ⎞⎟ ,
dP K
dt ⎝P⎠
the solution is
e − at
P = K ⎛⎜ 0 ⎞⎟
P
.
⎝K⎠

3.5. Coalition model

The differential equation for this model is

= aP1+ b .
dP
dt
The solution is
1
P= 1
.
( − abt + P0−b ) b

3.6. Regression model

Figure 1 is the scatter plot showing the relationship between the
population and the year. It can be seen from the scatter plot that there exists
a systematic visible pattern in the data resulting in the existence of a
relationship between the two variables, but no clear outlier.
566 Harold Jan R. Terano

(Using Minitab 17)

Figure 1. Scatter plot of population vs year.

4. Development of the Models

Based on the data of population, the researcher applied these data to

the derived solutions of the different mathematical models of the population
growth.
Table 1 shows the summary of the developed models.

Table 1. Developed models

Model name Mathematical model

Exponential growth model P = 26.273e 0.0244t

26.273
Hyperbolic growth model P=
1 − 0.01344t

4,274.88
Logistic growth model P=
26.273 + 136.437e − 0.0390.t
−0.00641t
Gompertz model P = 4,338.66(0.00606)e

1
Coalition model P=
(0.0123t + 1.9076)− 5.0607

Regression model P = 26.96 + 0.6283t + 0.02432t 2 − 0.000207t 3

where t is the time in year after 1960.
 Analysis of Mathematical Models of Population Dynamics … 567
5. Evaluation of the Models

Table 2 shows the results of the population based on the developed

models.
Table 2. Population models and their MAPEs
Year Actual Exponential Hyperbolic Logistic Gompertz Coalition Regression
population growth growth growth model model model
(in model model model (in millions) (in millions) (in
millions) (in millions) (in millions) (in millions) millions)
1960 26.273 26.273 26.273 26.273 26.292 26.270 26.960
1961 27.165 26.922 26.631 27.144 27.164 27.139 27.612
1962 28.081 27.587 26.999 28.037 28.059 28.030 28.312
1963 29.017 28.268 27.377 28.954 28.978 28.945 29.058
1964 29.963 28.967 27.766 29.894 29.920 29.883 29.849
1965 30.914 29.682 28.166 30.857 30.887 30.846 30.684
1966 31.868 30.415 28.577 31.844 31.878 31.834 31.561
1967 32.827 31.166 29.001 32.855 32.895 32.846 32.479
1968 33.797 31.936 29.438 33.889 33.937 33.885 33.437
1969 34.788 32.725 29.888 34.948 35.006 34.950 34.434
1970 35.805 33.533 30.352 36.030 36.100 36.041 35.468
1971 36.851 34.362 30.831 37.136 37.222 37.159 36.539
1972 37.925 35.210 31.325 38.265 38.371 38.305 37.644
1973 39.026 36.080 31.835 39.418 39.548 39.480 38.783
1974 40.150 36.971 32.362 40.595 40.753 40.683 39.955
1975 41.295 37.884 32.907 41.795 41.987 41.915 41.158
1976 42.461 38.820 33.470 43.017 43.250 43.177 42.391
1977 43.650 39.779 34.054 44.263 44.542 44.470 43.653
1978 44.866 40.762 34.657 45.531 45.865 45.793 44.942
1979 46.114 41.768 35.283 46.820 47.217 47.148 46.257
1980 47.397 42.800 35.931 48.132 48.601 48.534 47.598
1981 48.716 43.857 36.604 49.464 50.016 49.953 48.962
1982 50.068 44.941 37.303 50.817 51.463 51.406 50.349
1983 51.455 46.051 38.028 52.189 52.942 52.892 51.758
1984 52.874 47.188 38.783 53.582 54.454 54.412 53.186
1985 54.324 48.354 39.568 54.992 55.998 55.967 54.633
1986 55.804 49.548 40.385 56.421 57.577 57.558 56.098
1987 57.313 50.772 41.237 57.867 59.189 59.184 57.579
1988 58.844 52.026 42.126 59.329 60.836 60.848 59.075
1989 60.391 53.311 43.054 60.807 62.517 62.548 60.585
1990 61.947 54.628 44.023 62.299 64.234 64.287 62.108
1991 63.510 55.977 45.037 63.805 65.986 66.064 63.642
568 Harold Jan R. Terano
1992 65.079 57.360 46.099 65.324 67.775 67.880 65.186
1993 66.655 58.776 47.213 66.855 69.600 69.736 66.739
1994 68.240 60.228 48.381 68.396 71.463 71.633 68.300
1995 69.836 61.716 49.609 69.947 73.362 73.571 69.867
1996 71.437 63.240 50.901 71.506 75.300 75.550 71.440
1997 73.043 64.802 52.262 73.073 77.276 77.573 73.016
1998 74.656 66.403 53.697 74.645 79.290 79.638 74.595
1999 76.285 68.043 55.214 76.223 81.344 81.747 76.175
2000 77.932 69.724 56.819 77.805 83.437 83.901 77.756
2001 79.604 71.446 58.520 79.390 85.571 86.101 79.336
2002 81.294 73.211 60.326 80.976 87.744 88.346 80.913
2003 82.972 75.019 62.246 82.562 89.959 90.638 82.487
2004 84.596 76.872 64.294 84.148 92.215 92.977 84.056
2005 86.141 78.771 66.480 85.731 94.512 95.365 85.619
2006 87.593 80.716 68.821 87.311 96.851 97.801 87.174
2007 88.966 82.710 71.332 88.886 99.233 100.288 88.722
2008 90.297 84.753 74.033 90.456 101.657 102.824 90.259
2009 91.642 86.846 76.948 92.019 104.125 105.412 91.786
2010 93.039 88.992 80.101 93.574 106.636 108.052 93.300
2011 94.501 91.190 83.523 95.120 109.191 110.745 94.801
2012 96.017 93.442 87.251 96.656 111.791 113.491 96.287
2013 97.572 95.750 91.327 98.180 114.435 116.292 97.757
2014 99.139 98.115 95.803 99.693 117.124 119.148 99.210
2015 100.699 100.539 100.740 101.192 119.859 122.060 100.645
MAPE 7.766% 19.617% 0.616% 5.306% 5.689% 0.468%
Interpretation Highly Good Highly Highly Highly Highly
accurate accurate accurate accurate accurate

Based on the results of the computed MAPE of the individual model, it is

found that the exponential growth model has a MAPE of 7.766% which is
highly accurate, the hyperbolic model has a MAPE of 19.617% with an
interpretation of good, the logistic growth model has a MAPE of 0.616%
with an interpretation of highly accurate, the Gompertz model has a MAPE
of 5.306% with an interpretation of highly accurate, the coalition model has a
MAPE of 5.689% with an interpretation of highly accurate and the regression
model has a MAPE of 0.468% with an interpretation of highly accurate.
Comparing the models, it is found that the logistic growth model and the
regression model are most accurate of all the models developed. This is due
to the fact that the lowest MAPE obtained implies that it is the most accurate
prediction.
 Analysis of Mathematical Models of Population Dynamics … 569
Figure 2 shows the graphical representation of the different models of the
Philippine population growth.

(Using Microsoft Excel 2016)

Figure 2. Graphical representation of the models.

Table 3 shows the results of the population projected after 10 years from
2015.
Table 3. Projected population from 2016 to 2025
Year Exponential Hyperbolic Logistic Gompertz Coalition Regression
growth model growth model growth model model model model
(in millions) (in millions) (in millions) (in millions) (in millions) (in millions)
2016 103.022 106.214 102.676 122.639 125.029 102.060
2017 105.567 112.316 104.146 125.466 128.055 103.454
2018 108.174 119.163 105.600 128.339 131.140 104.826
2019 110.846 126.898 107.037 131.258 134.285 106.174
2020 113.584 135.708 108.456 134.225 137.489 107.498
2021 116.389 145.831 109.857 137.239 140.755 108.796
2022 119.264 157.588 111.240 140.302 144.082 110.067
2023 122.210 171.405 112.602 143.412 147.472 111.309
2024 125.229 187.879 113.944 146.570 150.927 112.522
2025 128.322 207.856 115.266 149.778 154.445 113.704
Author’s computation
570 Harold Jan R. Terano
Based on the result, the projected population in 2025 using the most
accurate models: logistic growth model and regression model, comes out to
be 115.266 million and 113.704 million, respectively.
Figure 3 shows the graphical representation of the projected population
from 2016 to 2025.

(Using Microsoft Excel 2016)

Figure 3. Graphical representation of the projected population from 2016 to

2025.

6. Conclusion

The mathematical model of population is an important tool in predicting

the future population of a certain country. The researchers developed the
mathematical models of the Philippine population growth and compared
these models. The developed models were the exponential growth model
(also known as Malthusian model), the hyperbolic growth model, the logistic
growth model (also known as Verhulst model), the Gompertz model, the
coalition model and the regression model (using cubic regression analysis).
Based on the results, the MAPE of exponential growth model is 7.766%
(highly accurate), the hyperbolic model is 19.617% (good), the logistic
growth model is 0.616% (highly accurate), the Gompertz model is 5.306%
 Analysis of Mathematical Models of Population Dynamics … 571
(highly accurate), the coalition model is 5.689% (highly accurate) and the
regression model is 0.468% (highly accurate). It was found out that the
logistic growth model and the regression model are most accurate of the
entire developed models for its projection from 1960 to 2015. The projected
population of the country using this logistic growth model is about 115.266
million and 113.704 million using the regression model by the year 2025.

Acknowledgement

The author thanks the anonymous referees for their valuable suggestions
for the improvement of the manuscript.

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