Banking

June 28, 2019

Sector View

Rally in corporates banks to continue for a while… Overweight

In our last sector update “Opportune time to board the bus”, we

recommended buying the banking space at that time with our preferred pick
in banking sector being SBI, Axis & City Union Bank. Post that, the banking

Sector Update
space along with our picks continued to outperform. With a slowdown
witnessed by NBFCs on the back of liquidity crunch, banking continues to
be a prime beneficiary of it. Banks continue to grow at a higher pace
compared to NBFCs. Furthermore, an anticipated recovery in two large
NCLT account will benefit PSU banks more leading to improvement in asset
quality &, subsequently, reduce the capital pressure.
In our analysis of expected business growth in the banking sector, we
believe large corporate private banks will continue their outperformance. On
the back of expected NCLT resolution and lower incremental stress, going
ahead, PSU banks are poised to grow in line with system growth.
We expect the below factors to pan out over the next couple of quarters.
 Subdued private capex & higher stress in the corporate sector led to
sluggish credit growth in the last few years. However, a revival in the
industry sector and consistent growth in retail & services led to a
gradual improvement in systemic credit growth to 12.3% in FY19.
Going ahead, MSME focus from the government is expected to push

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

up disbursements. However, the ongoing liquidity crisis in the NBFC
sector is expected to keep bank lending to NBFC growth lower &
shift of business from NBFCs/ HFCs to banks
 Anticipated resolution in large accounts like Essar Steel, Alok
Industries and Bhushan Power & Steel along with resolution in the
power sector are expected to pare down industry GNPA by ~170
bps to 7.8%. NNPA ratio is seen falling ~50 bps to 3.2%.
Furthermore, relaxation in form of 60% consensus for approval of
resolution plan vs. 100% earlier will lead to faster resolution.
 Amid a strong decline in G-sec yield of 40 bps, banks are poised to
report higher investment gains that will support overall earnings
trajectory. PSU banks being more sensitive to change in yield vs.
private banks, will remain major beneficiaries of the decline. A 50
bps cut in G-sec yield would benefit SBI most in PSU while PNB & , Research Analyst
Canara Bank in non-coverage can add 12-15 bps to RoA Kajal Gandhi
kajal.gandhi@icicisecurities.com
Focus on financial inclusion, improving granularity and digital reach by
Vishal Narnolia
promoting non-cash transactions, retail online payment methods have been vishal.narnoliai@icicisecurities.com
garnering strength; especially post demonetisation. Collaboration among
market participants is to lower costs of bringing underserved and unbanked Harsh Shah
shah.harsh@icicisecurities.com
consumers in formal financial services. Increase in cash less payments
presents three primary advantage for banks and other financial
intermediaries: 1) Generating fee based income; 2) reduction in cost in lieu
of handling cash; 3) higher customer engagement and CASA accretion.
RATING RATIONALE
With ~97 crore cards and rising quantum of mobile payment, the move
towards digitisation has begun, though financial inclusion remains a distant
dream. Private banks and new generation –payment banks, has been playing
a dominant role in engaging substantial customers in digital payment arena.
We retain our confidence in banks rather than NBFCs at this current juncture
as balance sheet management and lower growth, apart from fresh asset
quality concerns will take two to three quarters to stabilise. Elevated capital
adequacy norms to 15% by NHB will entail capital requirements for future
growth of HFCs. We prefer SBI, Axis Bank within the banking sector
coverage and SBI Life Insurance within the insurance sector.
 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Revised framework for resolution of stressed assets

provides leeway in managing stress
Post the court ruling February 12 circular pertaining to early recognition of
stressed assets as virus, RBI has issued a revised framework for resolution
of stressed assets. The revised framework provides leeway to lenders
providing an extended timeline in stress recognition and flexibility in
choosing the best plan to implement a stressed loan. Given peaking of NPA
cycle and rising provision cover, these guidelines will not have any material
impact on the current stressed exposure. However, it is expected to set the
stage for speedy recognition and resolution of stress arising ahead.
Highlights of the revised framework are:
(1) Timeline for recognition of stress asset has been increased from single
day earlier to 30 days,
(2) Moving to IBC is no more a prerequisite if the resolution plan fails to be
implemented beyond 210 days (30 days + 180 days),
(3) Approval required has been lowered to 60% by number and 75% by
value,
(4) Additional provision of 20% to be made if resolution plan remains
unimplemented after 210 days and 35% after 365 days,
(5) Conditions for upgradation are relatively relaxed and
(6) Framework is applicable to exposures greater than | 2000 crore and |
1500-2000 crore from January 1, 2020

Exhibit 1: Revised resolution framework

Exis ting framework Revis ed framework
Applicability Applies to SCBs and all-Indiaterm financial Applies to SCBs, all-India term financial institutions
institutions (Nabard, NHB, etc), SFBs, deposit-taking NBFCs
and systemically important non-deposit-taking
NBFCs
Exposure for application of the framework Applicable to accounts with exposure above | 2000 Applicable to accounts with exposure of | 2000
crore crore and on accounts at | 1500-2000 crore from
January 1, 2020 onwards
Timeline for implementation of Resolution Banks shall initiate resolution process within a day Lenders are given 30 days to review account and
plan (RP) of default and implement resolution plan within 180 decide on resolution process. Resolution process is
days of default to be implemeneted with 180 days from date of end
of review period i.e. 210 days from date of default

Approval of the resolution plan (RP) 100% of lenders will be in agreement for Approval needed from 60% of lenders by number
implementation of resolution plan and 75% of outstanding credit facilities
Delayed implementation of resolution plan Mandatorily refer account to IBC, post 180 days Additional provisions of 20% of outstanding amount
(RP) needs to be parked post 210 days of default and
15% post 365 days of default. If account is referred
to IBC, 50% of additional provisions can be reversed
on filing and remaining 50% on admission by NCLT

Upgradation If resolution involves restructuring/change in If resolution involves restructuring/change in

In case of change in ownership
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ownership (including those undertaken under IBC), ownership (including those undertaken under IBC),
accounts can be upgraded when all outstanding accounts can be upgraded when all outstanding
exposures are performing from date of exposure is performing from date of implementation
implementation till at least 20% of outstanding till at least 10% of outstanding principal debt is
principal debt is repaid repaid
Lenders shall establish that acquirer of asset is not Along with earlier requirement, ‘new promoter’
disqualified under section 29A of IBC should hold minimum 26% of paid up equity capital
and needs to be in control of entity. In addition,
acquirer should not be related to existing owner

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2

 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Features of revised resolution framework

To recognise stress early, lenders need to classify stressed loans as special
mention accounts for SMA-0 for 1-30 days overdue, SMA-1 for 31-60 days
and SMA-2 for 61-90 days overdue. In case of revolving credit facilities, if
outstanding balance remains in excess of sanctioned limit, account is
classified as SMA-1 for 31-60 days and SMA-2 for 61-90 days overdue.
Lenders must formulate board approved policies for resolution of stressed
assets under this framework, including the timelines for resolution. On
default of a borrower, lenders to initiate review within 30 days of default and
decide on a resolution plan.
For large exposures above | 2000 crore, RP is to be implemented within 180
days from end of review period (30 days after date of default). For exposures
from | 1500 – 2000 crore, the framework is applicable from January 1, 2020.
All lenders need to enter into an inter-creditor agreement (ICA) to provide
ground rules for finalisation and implementation of RP. For implementation
of the plan, agreement of 75% by value and 60% by number of lenders will
be needed.
An independent credit evaluation by at least one credit rating agency is
needed for exposure below | 500 crore and by two agencies for exposure
above | 500 crore.
Lenders are required to make additional provision (higher of provision held
or required as per asset classification norms) of 20% of the outstanding in
cases where an RP is not implemented within 180 days from the end of
review period. Additional provision of 15% needs to be provided further on
completion of 365 days without implementation of resolution plan.
Additional provisioning could be reversed based on the following
implementation;
 Payment of overdue by the borrower - the additional provisions may
be reversed only if the borrower is not in default for six months from
the date of clearing of the overdue with all the lenders;
 Restructuring/change in ownership outside IBC - the additional
provisions may be reversed upon implementation of the RP;
 Resolution pursued under IBC - half of the additional provisions
made may be reversed on filing of insolvency applications and the
remaining additional provisions may be reversed upon admission of
the borrower into the insolvency resolution process under IBC;
 Initiation of assignment of debt/recovery proceedings - the
additional provisions may be reversed upon completion of the
assignment of debt/recovery.
Prudential norms for accounts restructured under the IBC framework or
outside IBC:
Restructured accounts classified as 'standard' shall be immediately
downgraded as non-performing assets (NPAs), i.e., 'sub-standard' to begin
with. The non-performing assets, upon restructuring, would continue to
have the same asset classification as prior to restructuring. In both cases,
the asset classification shall continue to be governed by the ageing criteria
as per extant asset classification norms.
Standard accounts classified as NPA and NPA accounts retained in the same
category on restructuring can be upgraded only when all outstanding loan
facilities demonstrate 'satisfactory performance' during the period from the
date of implementation of RP up to the date, by which time at least 10% of
the sum of outstanding principal debt and interest capitalisation sanctioned
as part of the restructuring is repaid.

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3

 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

For accounts with aggregate exposure above | 100 crore, any upgrade
would also require a minimum rating of BBB- (i.e. investment grade). For
exposures above | 500 crore, two rating agencies will need to certify the
account as investment grade.
Accounts restructured under the new framework will attract provisions as
per existing norms. Interest income for restructured accounts classified as
'standard assets' may be recognised on an accrual basis. With respect to the
restructured accounts classified as 'non-performing assets', they will be
recognised on a cash basis.

Softness in yields to play positive role in earnings…

The Indian debt market, after stable movement for the first half of the
quarter, saw a sharp decline in G-sec yield falling ~ 40 bps to 6.92% from
7.35%. The global environment, in terms of a sharp fall in crude oil prices to
~US$60 per barrel from more than US$70 per barrel and falling bond yields
(US 10 year yield down 90 bps from 3.0% to 2.1% in last six months), is
offering a conducive environment for lower interest rates domestically.
The change in liquidity stance from neutral to accommodative also boosted Stable government and downward trend in global
investor sentiments. It indicates that system liquidity, which recently turned interest rates leads to expectation of decline in G-
positive after being in deficit mode since March 2019 is likely to remain in sec yields. Therefore, yields can play far positive role
surplus mode. The same augurs well for short-term rates. The lower in earnings, particularly of PSBs
government spending in the last few months has already started to improve
post the formation of the new government. This will further help improve
the liquidity environment.
The cooling of yields will help banks report higher investment gains, seen
supporting the overall earnings trajectory. PSU banks are more sensitive to
any change in yield compared to private banks, led by higher proportion of
AFS book and longer duration. A 50 bps moderation in G-sec yield would
benefit SBI most among PSUs and PNB, Canara Bank in non-coverage can
add 12-15 bps to RoA. On the other hand, benefit to private banks is seen to
be limited in the range of 1-2 bps at RoA level.
Exhibit 2: PSU Banks as major beneficiary from decline in G-sec yields
Q4FY19 Inves tment AFS Duration Abs olute Impact on RoA Impact on PAT Networ Impact on NW
book (y rs ) Impact due to due to decline due to decline th due to decline
decline in Yield in y ield in y ield (FY20E) in y ield
H 30 bps 50 bps 30 bps 50 bps 30 bps 50 bps 30 bps 50 bps
| crore T
M
Public sector banks
Bank of India* 145,548 39,045 2.8 328 547 5.3 8.9 9.4% 15.7% 46000 0.7% 1.2%
Bank of Baroda 172,412 69,820 0.9 186 311 3 4 2.0% 3.4% 72634 0.3% 0.4%
PNB* 200,632 65,280 3.4 674 1,123 7 12 15.4% 25.7% 37390 1.8% 3.0%
Canara Bank* 150,460 61,611 3.0 556 927 8 13 15.7% 26.2% 29080 1.9% 3.2%
SBI 926,651 420,700 2.6 3,307 5,511 9 14 8.9% 14.8% 232800 1.4% 2.4%
Indian Bank 65,758 26,798 3.2 254 423 8 14 14.7% 24.5% 20216 1.3% 2.1%

Private sector banks

Axis Bank 174,969 54,240 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 79168 NA NA
City Union Bank 7,863 1,540 1.0 5 8 1 2 0.4% 0.7% 5576 0.1% 0.1%
DCB 7,844 2,137 0.6 4 6 1 2 0.6% 1.1% 3531 0.1% 0.2%
J&K Bank 23,161 6,005 0.9 16 26 1 2 1.3% 2.2% 7249 0.2% 0.4%
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research, *FY19E is from Bloomberg for non-coverage

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4

 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Credit growth steady; revival in industry seen

Subdued private capex & higher stress in corporate sector led to sluggish
credit growth of ~8.6% CAGR in FY15-18. However, a revival in industry
sector & consistent growth in retail & services led to a gradual improvement
in systemic credit growth to 12.3% in FY19 vs. 8.4% in FY18. Industry credit
grew 6.9% in FY19 (vs. muted 0.7% in FY18), largely due to increased
working capital demand in the economy. Retail growth, which is a key driver
of credit growth, continued to grow at a consistent pace of 16.4% YoY in
FY19.
The industry sector growth 6.9%, largely driven by infrastructure & chemical
sector by 18.5% & 17.5%, respectively. Within infrastructure,
telecommunication grew 36.7%, roads grew 12.2% while power grew 9.5%.
Within chemical sector, due to a delay in subsidy by government, fertiliser
segment witnessed robust growth of ~31%. However, fertiliser growth is
poised to de-grow post availing subsidy.
Retail loan segment recorded growth at a steady pace of ~16% YoY as of
FY19 on the back of stable & consistent growth in housing, other personal &
credit card of 19%, 19% & ~29% YoY, respectively. However, a slowdown
in auto sales has impacted vehicle finance growth adversely at 6.5% in FY19.
The agricultural and allied activities segment growth seems to have
marginally improved in FY19 to ~8% YoY vs. ~4% in FY18.
The services segment growth continues to remain healthy at ~18% YoY in
FY19. Growth of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) slowed down to
~29% YoY as of FY19 on the back of the NBFC crises while growth in
wholesale trade book continued to gain momentum with growth of 22% YoY
in FY19. Ex-NBFC, growth of the service segment was at ~14%.
Going ahead, the large industrial sector is poised to grow steadily compared
to small & medium industry in FY20E. MSME focus from the government is
expected to push up disbursements. However, the ongoing liquidity crisis in
the NBFC sector is expected to keep bank lending to NBFC lower impacting
service growth. With an improving credit scenario and shifting demand from
NBFCs to banks, we expect credit growth to stay stable at 14-15% in FY20E.
Exhibit 3: Retail growth remains steady; revival in industry witnessed
| crores FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Jan-19 Feb-19 FY19
Non-Food Credit 6,002,952 6,546,903 7,094,490 7,688,423 8,204,291 8,306,521 8,633,418
Agriculture & Allied Activities 765,880 882,942 992,386 1,030,215 1,083,159 1,092,771 1,111,300
Industry 2,657,629 2,730,679 2,679,831 2,699,268 2,750,000 2,774,256 2,885,800
Services 1,413,097 1,541,067 1,802,237 2,050,471 2,234,000 2,276,195 2,415,609
Personal Loans 1,166,348 1,392,216 1,620,034 1,908,469 2,137,063 2,163,298 2,220,732

YOY growth (%)

Non-Food Credit 8.1% 9.1% 8.4% 8.4% 13.1% 13.2% 12.3%
Agriculture & Allied Activities 9.2% 15.3% 12.4% 3.8% 7.6% 7.5% 7.9%
Industry 5.9% 2.7% -1.9% 0.7% 5.2% 5.6% 6.9%
Services 7.3% 9.1% 16.9% 13.8% 23.9% 23.7% 17.8%
Personal Loans 13.8% 19.4% 16.4% 17.8% 16.9% 16.7% 16.4%

Proportion (%)
Agriculture & Allied Activities 12.8% 13.5% 14.0% 13.4% 13.2% 13.2% 12.9%
Industry 44.3% 41.7% 37.8% 35.1% 33.5% 33.4% 33.4%
Services 23.5% 23.5% 25.4% 26.7% 27.2% 27.4% 28.0%
Personal Loans 19.4% 21.3% 22.8% 24.8% 26.0% 26.0% 25.7%
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5

 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

NPA concerns behind sector

Asset quality is now moving into the positive territory. Fresh slippages were
lower and led by write-offs. Absolute GNPA declined 3% sequentially and
was down 9.4% YoY to | 928470 crore. Write-off increased ~23% YoY to
~| 197705 crore in FY19 compared to | 161328 crore in FY18. Provisions
remained elevated at | 107584 crore, up 63% QoQ as higher provisions were
witnessed for NCLT & ILFS. Accordingly, GNPA& NNPA ratio improved to
9.5% & 3.7% in FY19 compared to 11.6% & 5.8% in FY18, respectively.
Going ahead, with resolution of highly anticipated NCLT cases (Essar Steel,
Bhushan Power & Alok Industries) and stressed power sector close to
completion is expected to reduce GNPA ratio to 7.8% in FY20E.
Exhibit 4: Asset quality continues to improve
FY16 FY17 FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19
GNPA 575313 776835 1024586 1002682 997247 961129 928470
NNPA 331340 430173 517775 485181 463082 417837 359629
GNPA ratio 7.6 9.6 11.6 11.3 10.8 10.2 9.5
NNPA ratio 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.4 3.7
GNPA of PSU banks 523398 684733 896601 874071 868812 829745 797186
GNPA of Private banks 51915 92102 127985 128611 128435 131384 131284
w/off 57585 108374 161328 197705
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 5: Expected improvement in asset quality on back of NCLT/Power resolution

(| crore)
Expected resolution (Essar Steel + Bhushan Power + Alok Industries) 131000
New GNPA 797470
New GNPA ratio 8.2
Resolution of power exposure to extent of ~| 35,000 crore 762470
New GNPA ratio 7.8
NNPA 312429
New NNPA ratio 3.2
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6

 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Payment landscape offers huge opportunity ahead

India is an immense and extremely unique market with a nascent payments
industry that seems poised for dramatic growth. New dynamics on the
supply side including regulators and participants (universal and payment
banks, technology providers, aggregators, acquirers and fin-tech
companies) are bound to bring major change in the rules of the game.
Intense focus and strategic collaboration among market participants will
lower the costs of bringing underserved and unbanked consumers in formal
financial services. With collective and continuous emphasis by government,
central bank and other stake holders, non-traditional payment
methodologies are being redefined to pave way for higher digital modes of
payments. The new payments ecosystem will supplement as well as ride the
wave of smartphones, internet penetration and recent policy initiatives like
Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, Digital India and Digilocker to find creative ways to deal
with each other in the new marketplace to settle their positions on where
they will play and how they will win. Incentives and cash backs are being
offered to change the perception of digital payment; thereby encouraging
and engaging higher usage of non-cash medium of transactions. Increase in
cash less presents three primary advantage for banks and other financial
intermediaries: 1) provides opportunity to generate fee based income; 2)
reduction in cost in lieu of handling cash; 3) higher customer engagement.
Indian payment has been a cash economy for a long time but movement in
the direction of digital or cashless mode of transactions is rapid. Non cash
transactions have witnessed an increase at 14.1% CAGR to | 32.7 lakh crore.
Exhibit 6: Non cash payment on the rise
3500000 3,269,487 30
3000000 2,855,818 25
2,554,086
2500000
2,046,076 20
2000000 1,857,762
1,621,022 1,678,748 1,689,951 15
1500000
10
1000000
500000 5

0 0
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019

Payment in value (| billions) YoY growth (%)

Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

Drilling down further among constituents of non-cash payments, non-cash

broadly comprises six methodologies including RTGS, NEFT, paper clearing
and cards. With focus on improving granularity and reach of digital
payments and promoting non-cash transactions, retail payment methods
(IMPS and NEFT) have witnessed a faster increase in volumes as well as
value. Value of transactions undertaken through retail non-cash means
increased at ~40% CAGR in FY14-19. This has led to increase in the
proportion of retail non-cash in overall payment from ~1% in FY12 to ~8%
in FY19. In contrast, paper clearing has been trending downwards with
proportion in overall payment declining from 6.1% in FY12 to 2.5% in FY19.
Proportion of prepaid instruments (PPI), thoughvery small in the overall pie,
has been growing at rapid pace of ~92% CAGR in FY12-19.

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7

 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 7: Retail non-cash proportion rises from 1% in FY12... Exhibit 8: …to ~8% in FY19

10%
6% 1% % RTGS 0%
8% 1% RTGS
3%
CCIL Operated System CCIL Operated System
25%
Paper Clearing Paper Clearing
52%
36%
Retail Electronic Retail Electronic
67% Clearing Clearing
Cards Cards

Source: RBI, , ICICI Direct Research Source: RBI, , ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 9: Rapid growth in non-cash retail payment

120.0%

100.0% 1.3% 1.9% 2.8% 3.5% 4.5% 5.2% 6.7% 7.9%

80.0%
60.0%
40.0%

20.0%
0.0%
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019

RTGS CCIL Operated System Paper Clearing Retail Electronic Clearing Cards PPIs

Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

SBI and HDFC Bank – leads the way among pack

With focus on improving digital banking, the India banking industry, as a
whole, is moving towards increasing the proportion of non-cash payments.
However, the proportion of digital means remain a bit concentrated among
top 10-15 intermediaries (predominantly banks). HDFC Bank and SBI are
leading the banking industry in the race towards non-cash banking, led by a
large customer base and continuous focus on digital banking.
In case of NEFT, SBI and HDFC Bank remain the major leaders with more
than 25% market share. Top 10 banks contribute a major proportion of
market share to the tune of ~70%. Similarly, in RTGS, top 10 banks
contribute ~70% market share. SBI and HDFC bank lead the pack with
~30% market share in the payment space.

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 8

 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 10: Top 10 banks contribute ~70% of transactions Exhibit 11: HDFC Bank, SBI lead with ~25% market share
25.00 16.0
20.00 14.0
12.0
15.00 10.0
10.00 8.0
6.0
5.00 4.0
0.00 2.0
0.0
HDFC Bank

SBI

AXIS Bank

CITI Bank N.A.

DEUTSCHE
CHARTERED…

NSDL

Yes Bank
STANDARD

STATE BANK OF

HDFC BANK

RBI,PAD

AXIS BANK

CITI BANK

YES BANK

MAHINDRA…

CHARTERED BANK

HSBC BANK
Bank AG

KOTAK

STANDARD
INDIA
Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

Cards
In a bid to move towards a cashless society, Reserve Bank of India, in its
payments vision document (May 2019), has set an objective to achieve
~44% share in point of sale (PoS)-based debit card transaction by FY21.
Likewise, banks (both public, private sector banks) have been aggressively
deploying swipe machines across the country making inroads in Tier II and
III cities. Currently, there are ~37.5 lakh active PoS terminals deployed
across India by banks as of FY19. Though banks were adding to the reach of
PoS machines, demonetisation in November 2016 provided a fillip to the
momentum. Of the overall active PoS, first 14 lakh machines were installed
in 30 years while post demonetisation in the next three years, ~24 lakh
machines were added. This is expected to grow to ~50 lakh ahead.
Exhibit 12: PoS strength at ~37.5 lakh; target to reach ~50 lakh
40.0 37.2
35.0 30.8
30.0 25.3
25.0
20.0
13.9
15.0 11.3
10.0
5.0
0.0
March, 2015 March, 2016 March, 2017 March, 2018 March, 2019

No. of POS Terminals in India (in lakhs)

Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

The Indian card industry is skewed towards debit cards with ~92.4 crore
cards comprising ~95% of total issued cards (~97.1 crore as of January
2019). Credit cards comprise the remaining 5% of issued cards at ~4.7 crore.
Increase in number of cards came after the Modi government came up with
Digital India as one of the main agenda. In 2016, there were ~68.6 crore
cards. In three years, this increased to ~97.1 crore i.e. CAGR of 12.28%. One
of the main reasons for such an increase in number of cards issued was
introduction of Jan Dhan scheme, which contributed to the issuance of
~35.39 crore cards.

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 9

 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 13: Cards issued increases at 12% CAGR in last three years
1200.00

1000.00
47.09
37.48
800.00 29.84
24.51
600.00 21.11
861.08 924.63
400.00 771.65
661.82
553.45
200.00

0.00
January, 2015 January, 2016 January, 2017 January, 2018 January, 2019

Debit Cards (In Millions) Credit Cards (In Millions)

Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

Private banks lead in credit cards; foreign banks ahead in utility

In terms of cards, India has seen healthy growth in cards in the last decade,
pushed mainly by private banks. Currently, ~4.7 crore credit card have been
issued by the banking sector, as a whole. In FY12-16, value of transaction
undertaken through credit card increased at 25.6% CAGR. However, this
pace increased further at 35.8% CAGR in FY16-19 to | 6 lakh crore. Value of
transaction undertaken through credit card is dependent on three factors –
1) number of cards issued, 2) number of transaction per card per annum and
3) amount of per transaction. In FY12-16, higher usage of credit card i.e.
transaction per card per annum increased from 18 to 36.9. This led to
increase in value of credit card transaction. However, post demonetisation,
there was an increase in number of credit cards issued. This is evident from
the rise in outstanding credit cards from 2.1 crore in FY16 to 3.78 crore in
FY19. During the last seven years, value per transaction broadly remained
stable at ~| 3200-3500.
Exhibit 14: Issuance of credit card rises post demonetisation
Credit cards
Value
Volume Cards Transaction Value of per Utility of
(Rupees
(Million) (Million) per card transaction card
Billion)
2011-2012 320 966 17.8 18.0 3020 54339
2012-2013 397 1230 17.8 22.3 3100 69209
2013-2014 509 1540 19.6 26.0 3025 78765
2014-2015 615 1899 19.2 32.0 3087 98761
2015-2016 786 2407 21.3 36.9 3063 113039
2016-2017 1087 3284 24.9 43.7 3021 132092
2017-2018 1405 4590 30.4 46.3 3266 151124
2018-2019 1763 6033 37.8 46.7 3423 159700
FY12-16 CAGR 25.2% 25.6% 4.6% 19.7% 0.4% 20.1%
FY16-19 CAGR 30.9% 35.8% 21.1% 8.1% 3.8% 12.2%
Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

Of total credit card at ~4.7 crore, private banks have ~3.1 crore cards
contributing ~65% of total issued cards. In terms of value, per annum
transaction undertaken was at ~| 6 lakh crore in FY19. With average value
per transaction at | 3500 and ~37 transactions undertaken per annum, utility
per card was at | 128127 in FY19.
Private Banks contribute nearly two-third of total transactions at PoS
undertaken in terms of value at | 35377 crore (in April 2019) of total
transaction at | 57648 crore (in FY19). Among constituents, the value per
transaction is broadly similar across various issuing banks. However,

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number of transactions per card per annum defines the difference in card
utility among the peers. For PSU banks, number of transactions per card per
annum ranges at ~35. Private Banks have higher number of transactions per
card per annum at ~39 per card. Foreign banks have substantially high
number of transaction per card per annum at ~66, led by an affluent
customer base.
Exhibit 15: Foreign banks have highest utilisation of credit card
Outstanding Amount of Transacti
No. of Value of per Utility of
cards (April transactions on per
Transactions transaction (|) card (|)
2019) (| Millions) card
PSB 10527121 30687137 103499 2.9 3373 9832
Private 31208547 101495121 353772 3.3 3486 11336
Foreign 6261123 34738328 119213 5.5 3432 19040
Total 47996791 166920586 576485 3.5 3454 12011
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

In terms of volume as well as value, HDFC Bank and SBI lead in terms of
credit cards market share, with ~43-45% market share. This is due to higher
number of card issued by financiers – HDFC Bank has 1.2 crore cards while
SBI has ~85 lakh cards. However, looking at card utilisation, volume of
transaction per card is the highest in cards issued by foreign banks - Citibank
(~7.8 in April 2019) followed by America Express (~4.6 in April 2019). Apart
from this, Union Bank of India is bank with number of transactions between
four and five per month.
Exhibit 16: Higher number of cards leads to substantial market share in volume
30 26.77
25
20 15.88
15 12.63
9.92
10
4.13 3.40 3.19 2.75
5 2.08
0
RATNAKAR BANK
AXIS BANK LTD

CHARTERED BANK
AMERICAN

KOTAK MAHINDRA
CITI BANK
STATE BANK OF

INDUSIND BANK
HDFC BANK LTD

EXPRESS

STANDARD
BANK LTD

LIMITED
INDIA

LTD
LTD

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 17: HDFC Bank, SBI have highest market share in value
27.93
30
25
20 16.33
15 10.53 9.06 8.38
10 4.59 3.18 2.74 1.95
5
0
RATNAKAR BANK
AXIS BANK LTD

KOTAK MAHINDRA
CITI BANK

CHARTERED BANK
AMERICAN
STATE BANK OF
HDFC BANK LTD

INDUSIND BANK
EXPRESS

STANDARD
BANK LTD
LIMITED
INDIA

LTD

LTD

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Debit cards – next aim to usher in cashless economy

India has a large number of debit cards. However, primary usage was
restricted to cash withdrawal. Therefore, in spite of such a huge outstanding
card base, the goal of a cashless economy remains far distant. In addition, it
does not enable intermediaries to generate fee based income. However,

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there has been a structural shift, though gradual, in the usage of debit card.
On the one hand, usage of debit card at ATMs has been on a continuous
decline from | 60791 per card per annum to | 36528 in FY19, primarily led
by a reduction in the number of transaction per card per annum. However,
usage of debit cards at PoS is on the rise; boosted by demonetisation.
Number of transaction per card per annum has risen from 1.4 in FY12 to 2.1
in FY16, which more than doubled to 4.9 in FY19. This increase is attributable
to demonetisation wherein scarcity of cash pushed usage of cards.
Exhibit 18: Transaction per debit card has been on a gradual decline
Debit Cards - ATM
Value Value of per
Volume Cards Transaction Utility of
(Rupees transaction
(Million) (Million) per card card (|)
Billion) (|)
2011-2012 5082 13998 230 22.1 2754 60791
2012-2013 5308 16683 282 18.8 3143 59182
2013-2014 6088 19648 337 18.1 3227 58326
2014-2015 6996 22279 400 17.5 3184 55747
2015-2016 8073 25371 565 14.3 3143 44934
2016-2017 8563 23603 671 12.8 2756 35166
2017-2018 8602 28988 781 11.0 3370 37126
2018-2019 9860 33108 906 10.9 3358 36528
FY12-16 CAGR 12.3% 16.0% 25.1% -10.3% 3.4% -7.3%
FY16-19 CAGR 6.9% 9.3% 17.1% -8.7% 2.2% -6.7%
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 19: Higher usage of debit cards; especially post demonetisation

Debit Cards - POS
Value of per
Volume Value (| Cards Transaction Utility of
transaction
(Million) Billion) (Million) per card card (|)
(|)
2011-2012 328 534 230 1.4 1631 2321
2012-2013 467 743 282 1.7 1591 2636
2013-2014 619 955 337 1.8 1542 2834
2014-2015 808 1213 400 2.0 1502 3036
2015-2016 1174 1589 565 2.1 1354 2815
2016-2017 2399 3299 671 3.6 1375 4915
2017-2018 3343 4601 781 4.3 1376 5892
2018-2019 4414 5935 906 4.9 1344 6548
FY12-16 CAGR 37.6% 31.3% 25.1% 9.9% -4.5% 4.9%
FY16-19 CAGR 55.5% 55.1% 17.1% 32.8% -0.2% 32.5%
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

For the first time since demonetisation, payment through debit cards at
kirana & retail store has gained traction compared to ATM transactions. ATM
transaction, which usually forms more than two-third of total card volume,
saw a dip in market share led by higher PoS transaction. Accordingly, share
of PoS in total volume increased to 34% from 30% in January 2019. With
increasing penetration of e-commerce transaction & digitisation wave in in
Tier II & III cities, RBI is aiming at~44% share of PoS transaction by FY21.

Among constituents, foreign banks witness highest transaction value,

though it still remains lower than value of transaction through credit card.
Individually, HDFC Bank and SBI continue to command highest market share
led by high number of customers.

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Exhibit 20: Foreign banks have highest utility in debit cards

Outstanding Amount of Transacti
No. of Value of per Utility of
cards (April transactions on per
Transactions transaction (|) card (|)
2019) (| Millions) card
PSB 674678034 238230866 309789 0.4 1300 459
Private 148590292 153307409 219632 1.0 1433 1478
Foreign 5815756 10849568 16231 1.9 1496 2791
Payment Bank 46753457 4188092 2510 0.1 599 54
SFB 8938200 996392 1422 0.1 1427 159
Total 884775739 407572327 549584 0.5 1348 621
Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 21: HDFC Bank, SBI haver highest market in debit card volume at PoS
35
29.06
30
25
20
15 11.90
10 6.96
4.04 3.64 3.12
5 2.60 2.56 1.93
0
KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK
AXIS BANK LTD

INDIAN BANK
BANK OF BARODA
STATE BANK OF INDIA

CANARA BANK
HDFC BANK LTD

PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK

BANK OF INDIA

LTD

Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 22: Higher number of cards leads to substantial market share in volume
35
29.88
30
25
20
15 13.01

10 7.49
3.68 3.50 3.00 2.37
5 1.97 1.78
0
STATE BANK OF INDIA

AXIS BANK LTD

CITI BANK
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK
HDFC BANK LTD

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD

CANARA BANK

BANK OF INDIA
BANK OF BARODA

Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

Mobile banking – penetrating to the last mile

Mobile usage has been on a continuous uptrend in daily life. The same is
observed in banking transactions. This is evident from the rapid growth in
the volume and value of transaction undertaken through mobile. In FY12-19,
mobile transaction has been growing at ~187% CAGR from a paltry | 18.2
billion in FY12 to | 29.5 trillion in FY19. One of the objectives of the digital

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revolution was to make inroads in the arena for smaller transactions. With
the advent of Paytm and other payment banks, mobile transactions are on
the rise with substantial market share in terms of volume. However, scope
for increasing the quantum still remains huge.
Exhibit 23: Consistent rapid growth in mobile banking
35,000.00 400.0

30,000.00 350.0
300.0
25,000.00
250.0
20,000.00
200.0
15,000.00
150.0
10,000.00
100.0
5,000.00 50.0
0.00 0.0
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019
Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

In terms of volume of transactions through mobile, Paytm commands the

highest market share at ~20.4%, followed by SBI (contributing ~18%) and
Axis Bank (contributing ~12%). Therefore, top three companies cover more
than 50% market share while top 10 companies contribute ~80% of the
market share. In terms of value of transaction, SBI is leading with above 17%
market share followed by HDFC Bank with ~14%, respectively. Therefore,
top three banks contribute ~45% of market share while top 10 companies
contribute majority of market share at ~80%.

Exhibit 24: Paytm accounts for ~20% of market share Exhibit 25: Top 10 companies contribute ~80% market share

Market Share (Volume Wise) Market Share (Value)

25.00 20.43 20.00 17.39
18.16 14.26
20.00 15.00 12.73
15.00 11.79
10.00 6.63
10.00 6.48 4.97 4.31
3.76 2.10 5.00 2.40 2.21 1.75 1.71
5.00 1.96 1.94
0.00 0.00
MAHINDRA…

MAHINDRA…
AXIS BANK LTD

AXIS BANK LTD

BANK OF
RBL BANK

RBL BANK
Bank of India

Bank of India
STATE BANK OF

STATE BANK OF

INDUSIND BANK
Paytm Payments

Paytm Payments
HDFC BANK LTD.

HDFC BANK LTD.

Andhra Bank
Canara Bank

BARODA
LIMITED

LIMITED
Bank Limited

Bank Limited
KOTAK

KOTAK
INDIA

INDIA

LTD

Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

Diving into the extent of payments in terms of sub category of financial

players, private banks (number of private banks – 19) lead in both market
share of volume as well as value. In terms of volume, payment banks (Paytm
contributes 20.4%) command substantial market share at ~22% of total
volumes in FY19, led by continuous effort by the government and RBI to
increase penetration of digital transaction. Followed by payment banks
(number of payment banks – 7), private and public sector contribute ~33%
and ~20% market share, respectively. However, in terms of value of
transactions, private banks have garnered a major chunk at ~54% market
share, led by improved technology and customer friendly applications. PSU
banks (number of PSU banks – 19) have ~32% market share followed by
payment banks at ~5% share. This shows that while payment banks have
better penetration, ticket size remains low. While average value per
transaction is ~| 7500-7800 for private and PSU banks, payment banks are
more entrusted in low value transactions at ~| 1024. Small finance banks
(number of banks – 10), with a small customer base, have been on the path
to begin garnering digital transactions.

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Major players in the private banking space are HDFC Bank and Axis Bank,
while SBI, BoI and BoB hold substantial market share in PSU banks. Among
payment banks, Paytm Payment Bank is a major contributor with ~90%
share of payment banks.
Exhibit 26: Payment banks command volume; SCBs have value market share
Public Private SFB Payments Others
Number of Banks 19 19 10 7 225
Volume Market Share 19.83 32.77 0.08 22.10 25.22
Value Market Share 31.51 53.65 0.20 4.74 9.90
Ticket Size 7582 7810 12240 1024 1873
Paytm Payments
Name of Major Players SBI, BOI, Bank of Baroda HDFC, Axis Ujjivan SFB
Banks
Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

NBFC crisis in nutshell

NBFC’s share of credit grew from ~13% to ~19% in FY13-18, mainly fuelled
by a series of favourable factors: a) declining interest rate in the economy to
6% from 8% earlier, b) modest growth in PSU banks credit on the back of
asset quality issues leading to higher channelling of funds to thriving NBFCs,
c) sharp surge in lending by mutual fund aided by excess liquidity following
demonetisation (share of commercial papers increased from 5% in FY13 to
9% in FY18). However, the IL&FS debacle led to concerns over asset liability
mismatch of NBFCs having higher reliance on short-term funding (mainly
CPs) & higher bank borrowing, which triggered deep concerns on liquidity
problem at NBFCs.
Post ILFS crisis, while the NBFC sector was grappling with a liquidity crunch,
there was increasing demand for special liquidity window for NBFC. Since
then, RBI, in its endeavour to bring back normalcy, has taken a slew of
measures like liquidity through OMOs, easing securitisation norms, easing
of single borrower exposure & liquidity framework for NBFCs. However, it
has till now refrained from providing any special liquidity for the sector.
Post IL&FS episode, growth of NBFC sector has been heavily impacted as
lower availability of funds and rising lending cost in the system impacted
margins and profitability. While some companies could pass on rising cost
of funds to borrowers, this could get constrained by stronger competition
from private banks. Furthermore, riskier sectors like developer & MSME
could face issues in raising incremental funds from NBFCs & banks, which
could impact their repaying capacity leading to asset quality issues for
companies having exposure to such players.
Exhibit 27: Share of NBFC credit in total credit
20 18.7
16.7 17.3
18
15.1 15.6
16 14.9
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

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 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 28: NBFC borrowing pattern

120

100 7 6
33 7 8
80
17
1 29 8
60
28 2
40
7
59
20 49
31
0
FY10 FY13 FY18

Debentures CPs Banks Deposits Securitizations Others

Source: RBI, ICICI Direct Research

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Annexure
Exhibit 29: Asset quality trend
GNPA (| crore) NNPA (| crore)
As s et quality trend Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19
PSU coverage
Bank of Baroda 55,875 55,121 53,184 48,233 22,384 21,059 19,131 15,610
Indian Bank 11,828 12,334 13,198 13,353 5,999 7,060 7,571 6,793
SBI 212,840 205,864 187,765 172,750 99,236 94,810 80,944 65,895
Private coverage
Axis Bank 32,662 30,938 30,855 29,789 14,902 12,716 12,233 11,276
Bandhan Bank 388 413 831 820 194 220 237 228
City Union Bank 851 848 892 977 473 498 528 591
Development Credit Bank 401 410 445 439 154 155 163 154
Federal Bank 2,869 3,185 3,361 3,261 1,620 1,796 1,817 1,626
HDFC Bank 9,539 10,098 10,903 11,224 2,907 3,028 3,302 3,215
IndusInd Bank 1,741 1,781 1,968 3,947 762 788 1,029 2,248
Jammu & Kashmir Bank 6,242 6,068 6,860 6,221 2,782 2,489 3,049 3,240
Kotak Mahindra Bank 3,899 4,033 4,129 4,468 1,527 1,501 1,397 1,544
Yes Bank 2,824 3,866 5,159 7,883 1,263 2,020 2,876 4,485
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 30: Quarterly margin trend

NIM (%) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19
PSU coverage
Bank of Baroda 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.9
Indian Bank 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0
SBI 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8

Private coverage
Axis Bank 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4
Bandhan Bank 0.0 9.6 9.3 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.7
City Union Bank 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4
Development Credit Bank 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8
Federal Bank 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2
HDFC Bank 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4
IndusInd Bank 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6
Jammu & Kashmir Bank 3.8 4.0 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.1
Kotak Mahindra Bank 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.5
Yes Bank 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 31: Key financial of industry as of Q4FY19

(| crore) Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19
NII 82808 85714 84835 94144 92132 99136 102887
Growth YoY 9. 0 14. 8 1. 3 27. 4 11. 3 15. 7 21. 3
Other income 52189 38218 47391 37110 37019 41299 49070
Growth YoY 9.2 -16.7 0.7 -11.4 -29.1 8.1 3.5
Total operating exp. 59536 61162 69366 64525 64068 71463 76093
Staff cost 29088 30128 34342 32053 32749 35995 36478
Operating profit 75460 62771 62860 66730 65084 68973 75864
Growth YoY 12.2 1.6 -13.0 8.1 -13.8 9.9 20.7
Provision 65521 76618 148276 77236 70471 65837 107584
PBT 9899 -13888 -85460 -10552 -5437 3136 -31720
PAT 6221 -6943 -55648 -7130 -4404 -197 -21535
Growth YoY -42. 4 NM NM NM NM NM NM
GNPA 840250 885788 1024586 1002682 997247 961129 928470
Growth YoY 19. 2 20. 9 31. 9 20. 9 18. 7 8. 5 -9. 4
NNPA 452523 469278 517775 485181 463082 417837 359629
Growth YoY 11. 2 12. 4 20. 4 3. 9 2. 3 -11. 0 -30. 5
Source: Capitaline, Company, ICICI Direct Research

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ICICI Direct Research coverage universe (BFSI)

CMP M Cap EPS (|) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Sector / Company
(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY18 FY19FY20E FY18 FY19FY20E FY18 FY19FY20E FY18 FY19FY20E FY18 FY19FY20E
Bank of Baroda (BANBAR) 124 170 Buy 47,738 -9.2 7.7 18.5 -13.5 16.1 6.7 1.0 1.5 1.2 -0.3 0.4 0.6 -5.8 9.7
State Bank of India (STABAN) 363 400 Buy 323,606 -7.3 1.0 27.2 -49.7 374 13.3 3.0 2.6 1.9 -0.2 0.0 0.7 -3.0 0.5 12.3
Indian Bank (INDIBA) 264 300 Buy 12,984 26.2 6.7 25.2 10.1 39.4 10.5 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.4 7.1 1.7 6.1
Axis Bank (AXIBAN) 805 880 Buy 210,886 -1.0 22.2 37.5 -786.5 36.3 21.5 4.4 3.7 3.1 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.8 1.1
City Union Bank (CITUNI) 217 240 Buy 15,939 8.9 9.3 10.3 24.3 23.3 21.0 3.9 3.7 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 15.5 15.3 14.7
DCB Bank (DCB) 238 250 Buy 7,371 7.8 10.5 13.5 30.3 22.6 17.6 3.0 2.7 2.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 10.9 12.1 13.8
Federal Bank (FEDBAN) 108 125 Buy 21,442 4.5 6.3 7.7 24.2 17.2 14.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 8.2 9.8 11.0
HDFC Bank (HDFBAN) 2,453 2,700 Buy 669,235 67.4 77.4 97.9 36.4 31.7 25.0 6.1 4.6 4.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 17.9 16.5 16.7
IndusInd Bank (INDBA) 1,416 1,860 Buy 85,393 60.1 55.0 92.3 23.6 25.7 15.3 3.7 3.5 2.9 1.8 1.3 1.8 16.2 13.1 19.0
Jammu & Kashmir Bk(JAMKAS) 41 53 Hold 2,286 3.6 8.3 14.7 11.3 4.9 2.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.4 7.3 11.8
Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTMAH)1,478 1,500 Hold 282,113 21.4 25.5 30.4 69.0 58.0 48.6 7.9 6.9 6.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 12.5 12.1 12.7
Yes Bank (YESBAN) 108 180 Hold 25,069 18.3 8.4 13.3 5.9 12.9 8.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.9 17.6 7.3 10.9
Bandhan Bank (BANBAN) 535 725 Buy 63,807 11.3 16.4 22.0 9.6 6.6 4.9 1.4 1.2 1.0 3.6 3.9 4.0 19.5 19.0 21.1
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

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RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined
as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

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 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above
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