Myanmar Election: What You

Need To Know
More than 30 million people are eligible to vote in Myanmar's election today, a poll that could redraw the

political landscape of a nation smothered by decades of junta rule.

How significant is the polls?

November 8 offers Myanmar voters their first -- and potentially freest -- chance to have a say in their nation's
future. The military's so-called "Burmese Way to Socialism" turned a once a booming economy into a basket
case as an elite got rich while pushing disastrous economic policies onto the nation. Whatever the outcome,
there is still a long way to go until the country becomes fully democratic -- the army is granted 25 percent of
parliamentary seats under the constitution.

How did it come about?

In 2011 the junta ceded power to a reformist Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP) administration led
by ex-general Thein Sein. Observers say Myanmar's generals were motivated to open the country to halt
economic disintegration. But they planned the route to "disciplined democracy" carefully, passing a 2008
constitution that ring-fenced the role of the military in parliament and barring Suu Kyi from the presidency. In
2010 the generals released Nobel Peace Prize winner Suu Kyi from years of house arrest after flawed elections.
The USDP government, which released hundreds of political prisoners and restored many freedoms, was
rewarded with the lifting of most Western sanctions. International investors flooded into the virtually untapped
market.

Will it be free and fair?

That very much remains to be seen. President Thein Sein insists he supports Myanmar's democratic
development and has vowed the election will be free and fair. But Suu Kyi has accused the government of
backsliding on reforms, a fear echoed by many international observers. Major election fraud would cast a
shadow over reforms and raise questions over whether the military are serious about democracy. Tens of
thousands of ethnic Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State have been disenfranchised, while election authorities
have cancelled voting in dozens of townships in war-hit borderlands. Both issues are potential flashpoints in
the election aftermath.
What happens next?

Whoever reaches a majority can expect to form a government. The next step will be to choose a president, but
it is a deliberately messy process established under an army-scripted constitution. The lower house, the upper
house and the military offer up preferred candidates, with the winner elected by lawmakers. At the moment
President Thein Sein is likely to be the military-backed candidate. The NLD has yet to give any hint who its
preferred candidate will be, as Suu Kyi is barred. Although she has promised it will be a civilian NLD member.
Nonetheless, Suu Kyi has made no secret of her determination to "lead" the government if the NLD wins. It is
unclear how the military will react to this.

How to get to power?

Some 30 million people are expected to vote for more than 6,000 candidates standing for 91 different political
parties. There are 323 seats up for grabs in the lower house and 168 in the upper house. A further 110 seats in
the lower house and 56 in the upper are reserved for military appointees. For an outright majority over the
combined parliament, the NLD need to win at least 330 -- or 67 percent -- of the contested seats. The USDP
has an automatic head start because of its links with the army. It needs just 33 percent of the seats to combine
with the military bloc. NLD supporters may not stomach anything less than clear victory after years of struggle
for democracy. But a strong result from ethnic parties could dilute the party's majority. Observers expect
months of political horse-trading after the poll in the run up to a parliamentary vote to select a president early
next year.

The Guardian view on Myanmar’s elections: a

notable victory, but tough times still lie ahead
Editorial

Aung San Suu Kyi has certainly notched up a triumph. But her movement’s contest with the military will
continue

Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy have won a major victory, although how complete it
is will not be clear for some days. But it is not too early to say that it is a fitting triumph and a reward for a life
selflessly devoted to the task of restoring democracy to her country. Aung San Suu Kyi is barred from the
nation’s executive presidency, but will now almost certainly be able to put forward a candidate for the post.
She has said that she would lead the government whether or not she is the president. But the really important
question is not whether she can form a government, but whether she can rule.
This is not, at bottom, a constitutional issue, but one concerning military, economic and social power. The
constitution needs to be changed, and until it is Myanmar will not have full democracy. Yet it is the broader
balance between two centres of power – the democratic, rooted in parliament, and the military, entrenched
in the state’s institutions – that matters most. Aung San Suu Kyi and her party had already profoundly changed
that balance, although the military’s own reforms also played a part. For example, the era in which electoral
success could simply be negated by the army has passed. So has the time when a general election could be
crudely fixed, as has also happened in the past. Now the NLD can claim to represent the people in a way it
could not when it had only a small number of seats won in by elections, which is where it stood previously,
after declining to contest the last general election in 2010. The relative legitimacy of the NLD and the military-
dominated institutions of the Myanmar state has shifted even more toward the former. But that does not
mean that the military class, with its control of the security forces, its huge economic holdings, and a substantial
social constituency, much of which is not in uniform, is on the ropes.

The political contest is now more subtle but no less sharp. The military class and Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD
will continue in an uneasy and rivalrous relationship. It will have aspects of both reluctant partnership and a
continuing struggle. There will be bargaining and maneuvering in the months between now and March, when
the next president will be chosen. But the conflict in the longer run will be about who can cope with the pent-
up pressure for change and improvement in Myanmar society. Sunday’s lengthy queues of orderly and patient
voters were a symptom of that pressure: the people of Myanmar were giving notice, more confidently and
more forcefully than in the past that they must and will have change.

They want it in their economic circumstances, in more and better jobs, and better conditions. They want it in
the distribution of wealth, ending the privileged and corrupt cornering of assets by a narrow class. They want
it in the law, to prevent such activities as the seizure of farmland for development without fair compensation
and with no effective redress. They want the wars that have sapped Myanmar since independence to stop, for
good. They want roads, bridges and pipelines – but without selling the country out to the Chinese or other
foreign investors. And yes, they want democracy, to be able to choose their governments and shape their
policies through the vote. They want a lot, in other words.

Politics in Myanmar in the future will be about who can deliver and who is failing to deliver. There may be
elements in the military who do not object to the NLD having a governmental role and bearing for a while the
burden of this expectation, suffering a loss of popularity when, as is inevitable, there is disappointment.
Equally, a partial political retreat would spare them the obloquy that would come their way if they denied the
NLD its place in government. Their hope might be that as an inexperienced NLD flounders, the military side can
build a more substantial popular base. Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD can rightly congratulate themselves on
winning the election. Now comes the hard part.
Magnificent election in Myanmar
Bursting firecrackers over elections in a neighboring country may sound controversial these days. But in the
case of Myanmar, it would not be out of place if India celebrated the successful conclusion of elections there.
The fact that the elections were conducted peacefully within a day, and that counting has taken place without
a hitch, is a big moment in Myanmar. The massive turnout of 80 per cent of the eligible 30 million voters was
truly remarkable. Given that this was the first truly free general election in 25 years and much of the vast
countryside had never voted before this, it is to the credit of the election commission as well as voter
awareness groups across the country that managed to ensure heavy polling even in the most remote areas.
The numbers were robust: more than 6,000 candidates from 90 parties stood for elections to the 664-seat
Parliament. With counting in progress and Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) inching
towards a likely landslide victory, Myanmar is indeed poised for great change at many levels, each of which
must be rejoiced. To begin with, the elections will see the first non-junta backed government in Myanmar’s
history. Ms. Suu Kyi will still face the twin hurdles of the 664-seat Parliament including 25 per cent of the
military or Tatmadaw’s nominees, and constitutional restrictions on her own nomination as President. Even
so, with her popularity strong nationwide, and worldwide support for democracy in Myanmar, Ms. Suu Kyi, or
Mother Suu as she is called, will carry much goodwill to aid her government.

The road ahead has many challenges too. Myanmar is amongst Asia’s poorest countries, where government
schemes reach less than 3 per cent of the population. It is a country rife with armed ethnic groups, and despite
a ceasefire accord signed by the President last month, major guerrilla groups from the Wa and Kachin states
haven’t yet signed on. Adding to that are religious tensions, as the increasingly vocal Buddhist groups adopt
majoritarian and often brutal methods with religious minorities, including the Rohingya Muslims. In this
election, several Rohingya who were eligible to vote in the last elections were deprived of their vote, and not
allowed to stand. Finally, Myanmar faces the challenges of development, to ensure that the rush of big
corporations it has invited to fuel an economic boom does not deplete its natural resources. Owing to the
growth of construction, mining and manufacturing industries in the past few years, Myanmar has the third-
highest rate of deforestation in the world. These are all challenges the new government will have to tackle
quickly. India too must seize the opportunity to launch a new partnership with a much-neglected neighbor that
is also its only link and gateway to the East.