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Probability and Statistics: Essays in Honor of David A. Freedman

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 Institute of Mathematical Statistics
COLLECTIONS
Volume 2
arXiv:0806.4441v1 [math.PR] 27 Jun 2008

Probability and Statistics:

Essays in Honor of
David A. Freedman

Deborah Nolan and Terry Speed, Editors

Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Beachwood, Ohio, USA
 Institute of Mathematical Statistics
Collections

Series Editor:
Anthony Davison

The production of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Collections is managed by the
IMS Office: Rong Chen, Treasurer and
Elyse Gustafson, Executive Director.

Library of Congress Control Number: 2007939122

International Standard Book Number (10) 0-940600-74-9
International Standard Book Number (13) 978-0-940600-74-4

International Standard Serial Number 1939-4039

c 2008 Institute of Mathematical Statistics
Copyright
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
 Contents

Preface
Deborah Nolan and Terry Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v
Contributors
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi

PROBABILITY
Probability theory and its models
Paul Humphreys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Dutch book in simple multivariate normal prediction: Another look
Morris L. Eaton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
A transient Markov chain with finitely many cutpoints
Nicholas James, Russell Lyons and Yuval Peres . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Moments of convex distribution functions and completely alternating sequences
Alexander Gnedin and Jim Pitman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Brownian motion on disconnected sets, basic hypergeometric functions, and
some continued fractions of Ramanujan
Shankar Bhamidi, Steven N. Evans, Ron Peled and Peter Ralph . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

STATISTICS
Characteristics of hand and machine-assigned scores to college students’ answers
to open-ended tasks
Stephen P. Klein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Alternative formulas for synthetic dual system estimation in the 2000 census
Lawrence Brown and Zhanyun Zhao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
On the history and use of some standard statistical models
E. L. Lehmann . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
Counting the homeless in Los Angeles County
Richard Berk, Brian Kriegler and Donald Ylvisaker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Statistical adjustment for a measure of healthy lifestyle doesn’t yield the truth
about hormone therapy
Diana B. Petitti and Wansu Chen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Multiple tests of association with biological annotation metadata
Sandrine Dudoit, Sündüz Keleş and Mark J. van der Laan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Multivariate data analysis: The French way
Susan Holmes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
The future of census coverage surveys
Kenneth Wachter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
Three months journeying of a Hawaiian monk seal
David R. Brillinger, Brent S. Stewart and Charles L. Littnan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
Projection pursuit for discrete data
Persi Diaconis and Julia Salzman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
DNA Probabilities in People v. Prince: When are racial and ethnic statistics
relevant?
David H. Kaye . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289

iii
iv Contents

Testing earthquake predictions

Brad Luen and Philip B. Stark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
Curse-of-dimensionality revisited: Collapse of the particle filter in very large
scale systems
Thomas Bengtsson, Peter Bickel and Bo Li . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
Higher order influence functions and minimax estimation of nonlinear
functionals
James Robins, Lingling Li, Eric Tchetgen and Aad van der Vaart . . . . . . . . . . . 335
 Preface
This volume is our tribute to David A. Freedman, whom we regard as one of the
great statisticians of our time. He received his B.Sc. degree from McGill University
and his Ph.D. from Princeton, and joined the Department of Statistics of the Uni-
versity of California, Berkeley, in 1962, where, apart from sabbaticals, he has been
ever since.
In a career of over 45 years, David has made many fine contributions to proba-
bility and statistical theory, and to the application of statistics. His early research
was on Markov chains and martingales, and two topics with which he has had a
lifelong fascination: exchangeability and De Finetti’s theorem, and the consistency
of Bayes estimates. His asymptotic theory for the bootstrap was also highly influ-
ential. David was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1991,
and in 2003 he received the John J. Carty Award for the Advancement of Science
from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.
In addition to his purely academic research, David has extensive experience as
a consultant, including working for the Carnegie Commission, the City of San
Francisco, and the Federal Reserve, as well as several Departments of the U.S.
Government–Energy, Treasury, Justice, and Commerce. He has testified as an ex-
pert witness on statistics in a number of law cases, including Piva v. Xerox (em-
ployment discrimination), Garza v. County of Los Angeles (voting rights), and New
York v. Department of Commerce (census adjustment).
Lastly, he is an exceptionally good writer and teacher, and his many books and
review articles are arguably his most important contribution to our subject. His
widely used elementary text Statistics, written with R. Pisani and R. Purves, now
in its 4th edition, is rightly regarded as a classic introductory exposition, while his
second text Statistical Models (2005) is set to become just as successful in its field.
The roles of theoretical researcher, consultant, and expositor are not disjoint
aspects of David’s personality, but fully integrated ones. For over 20 years now, he
has been writing extensively on statistical modeling. He has contributed to theory,
and prepared illuminating expositions and given penetrating critiques of old and
new models and methods in a wide range of contexts. The result is a quite remark-
able body of research on the theory and application of statistics, particularly to the
decennial U.S. census, the social sciences (especially econometrics, political science
and the law), and epidemiology. These themes are reflected in this volume of papers
by friends and colleagues of David’s. We’d like to thank him for his wonderful body
of work, and to wish him well for the future.

Deborah Nolan
Terry Speed

v
 Contributors to this volume
Bengtsson, T., Bell Labs
Berk, R., University of California, Los Angeles
Bhamidi, S., University of California, Berkeley
Bickel, P., University of California, Berkeley
Brillinger, D. R., University of California, Berkeley
Brown, L., University of Pennsylvania

Chen, W., Kaiser Permanente Southern California

Diaconis, P., Stanford University

Dudoit, S., University of California, Berkeley

Eaton, M. L., University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

Evans, S. N., University of California, Berkeley

Gnedin, A., Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht

Holmes, S., Stanford University

Humphreys, P., University of Virginia

James, N., Berkeley, California

Kaye, D. H., Arizona State University

Keleş, S., University of Wisconsin, Madison
Klein, S. P., GANSK & Associates
Kriegler, B., University of California, Los Angeles

Lehmann, E. L., University of California, Berkeley

Li, B., Tsinghua University
Li, L., Harvard School of Public Health
Littnan, C. L., Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center
Luen, B., University of California, Berkeley
Lyons, R., Indiana University

Peled, R., University of California, Berkeley

Peres, Y., University of California, Berkeley, and Microsoft Research
Petitti, D. B., University of Southern California
Pitman, J., University of California, Berkeley

Ralph, P., University of California, Berkeley

Robins, J., Harvard School of Public Health

Salzman, J., Stanford University

Stark, P. B., University of California, Berkeley
Stewart, B. S., Hubbs-SeaWorld Research Institute

Tchetgen, E., Harvard School of Public Health

vi
 Contributors to this volume vii

van der Laan, M. J., University of California, Berkeley

van der Vaart, A., Vrije Universiteit

Wachter, K., University of California, Berkeley

Ylvisaker, D., University of California, Los Angeles

Zhao, Z., Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.

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