IJWREM:Volume 3,Number 1,January-June 2012,pp.

125-133

FLOOD FLOW AND DAMAGE FORECASTING IN A RIVER

SYSTEM USING ANFIS
Nazrin Ullah 1, Parthasarathi Choudhury , Jotish
2
Nongthombam and3 Parthajit Roy 4

Abstract: The present study demonstrates application of ANFIS model in forecasting flood flow and damages in a
river system. The model uses upstream flow depths measured at various sites to predict downstream flow and
damage variables in the river system. GIS technique is used to obtain inundation area representing flood losses for
a damage site. Concurrent upstream flow depths and downstream flow depth/inundation area data are used to
develop the forecasting models. Best model topology is ascertained using trials and the models are used with
different combinations of upstream flows to forecast downstream flow and damages. Model performances are
estimated using standard statistical criteria. Performance results indicate that ANFIS model is efficient in forecasting
downstream flow and damages in a river system. Same set of upstream flows can be used to forecast the downstream
flow and damages. The study shows that model prediction capability is enhanced when lateral tributary flows are
incorporated.
Keywords: ANFIS, GIS, damage forecasting, topology.

1. INTRODUCTION
Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards in the world, causing widespread damages to human
life and property. Study of flood flow and developing flood forecasting and warning systems is essential
for damage mitigation. Different types of models are available in the literature to study flood movement in
river reaches which can be categorized as Conceptual, Physical and Data-driven models. Conceptual models
are generally based on Saint Venant equation comprising of partial differential equations of continuity and
momentum. These models can explain very well the internal mechanisms of the hydrological processes but
they require a significant amount of calibration data, sophisticated mathematical tools, expertise with the
model etc. Physical models depend mainly on the understanding of the physical processes; may take long
computation time and need large amount of data for model calibration. Data-driven models can discover
relationships among the hydrologic variables affecting a problem without requiring complete physical
understanding of the system. Though such data-driven models do not provide much insight on the underlying
hydrological processes, yet these models are preferable in many cases particularly in flood forecasting
problems where usually the main concern is to make accurate and timely forecast essential for damage
mitigation. One such data-driven model that has drawn wide attention of the hydrologists and others is
Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). ANFIS is a potentially effective modeling technique
that provides many advantages over conventional methods, including the ability to handle large amounts of
noisy and imprecise data from dynamic and non-linear systems. This approach has the capability of utilizing
benefits of both the Artificial Neural Network(ANN) and Fuzzy Logic(FL) modeling aspects in a single
framework. Flood plains and particularly the areas near to the river channels are mostly used for social and

1
Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Silchar, Assam, India (nazrinullah@gmail.com)
2
Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Silchar, Assam, India, (ps_chou@yahoo.com)
3
Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Silchar, Assam, India, (jnongthombam@gmail.com)
4
Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Silchar, Assam, India, (parthajit_roy@yahoo.co.in)
126 Nazrin Ullah, Parthasarathi Choudhury, Jotish Nongthombam and Parthajit Roy

agricultural activities and are vastly affected by flood hazards. The existing systems of collecting information
on the extent of inundation and their effects are costly and time-consuming. The systems depend mostly on
field information which is not always available and cannot be collected until the recession of the floodwaters
(Solaimani, 2011). A number of research works conducted on modeling real-time flood losses are available
in the literature. Remote Sensing and GIS approach that is efficient in handling spatially distributed parameter
systems has been widely used by researchers in modeling, monitoring flood movements and assessment of
flood damages. Remote Sensing and GIS technologies are used for realtime flood monitoring and assessment
of flood damages (Irimescu et al., 2010, Dutta et al., 2001, Solaimani, 2011 etc.). Delft Hydraulic Institute
(Jonge et al, 1996) developed a one- dimensional flood hazard assessment model for real-time damage
estimation integrating GIS and hydraulic model. For a series of discharges, the model calculates flooding
depths in the flood plain and the damages are estimated based on the calculated flood depths. Kabiruddin et
al (2008) developed an algorithm to determine the extent of flooding area using microwave (ENVISAT
ASAR) images and assessed flood losses using land cover classification data obtained from ASTER image.
Tilmant et al (2002) and others have investigated applicability of the data-driven models namely ANN, FL
and GA (Genetic Algorithm) in different fields including hydrological systems and reported encouraging
results. ANFIS technique which is a combination of ANN and FL, has been used successfully for predicting
water level in reservoir (Chang and Chang, 2006), modeling river flow (Nayak et al., 2004, Bisht and
Jangid, 2011) etc. Chau et al. (2005) applied different forecasting models in Yangtze River in China for
flow prediction and found better performance of the ANFIS model. Nayak et al.(2005) compared
performances of ANFIS model with ANN and other traditional time series models and found that ANFIS
has better performance in terms of computational speed, forecast errors, efficiency etc. ANFIS model can
capture the inherent nonlinearity in the hydrologic processes better than that of the individual fuzzy and
ANN models.
Study of the literature concerning flood movement in river reaches reveal that most of the studies
consider flow in a single river reach to estimate downstream flow and flood losses. In real life a large
number of tributaries join the main channel forming a river network and a number of upstream flows affect
the downstream flow and flood losses; so for accurate estimation and prediction of downstream flow and
flood losses, provision should be made for easy and efficient inclusion of lateral inflows in the model.
Flood damages at a potential location depend on several hydraulic and hydrologic factors and are often
expressed as a function of river stages, discharge, velocity of flow, inundation area, duration of inundation,
channel and flood plains characteristics etc. Among these influencing factors, inundation area may be
considered as the single most important indicator measuring flood damages. Inundation area at a location
depends on valley characteristics and flow depths; for a river section with a given valley characteristics
inundation area may be expressed as a non-linear function of upstream flow depths. A model developed
based on such relationship requires sophisticated tools for solution. In the case of a river system, the flow
propagation model is further complicated and is highly non-linear due to inclusion of a number of upstream
flows/flow depths in the model. ANFIS is well recognized for its ability in modeling complex systems,
mapping non-linearity, ambiguity and may be used to develop flood forecasting model for a river system.
In the present study ANFIS model is used to forecast flow depth and flood damages at a downstream
location in a river system using upstream flow depth values. Digital Elevation Model(DEM) obtained by
applying ArcGIS tool is used to develop inundation map for the potential damage location(s). The technique
is used to quantify inundation area corresponding to different flow levels at the site. ANFIS model with
different input structures are used to forecast flow depths and flood damages at the downstream station in
the river network. Model performances are evaluated in terms of standard statistical criteria. The study
demonstrates application ofANFIS models in forecasting flood flow and damages in a river system. Results
obtained indicate that higher forecasting accuracy can be obtained by incorporating more number of lateral
tributary flows in the model.
 Flood Flow and Damage Forecasting in a River System Using ANFIS 127

2. ANFIS MODEL
ANFIS is Sugeno-type fuzzy inference system implemented in the framework of adaptive networks. The
basic structure of a Fuzzy Inference System(FIS) consists of three conceptual components: A rule base
containing a selection of fuzzy rules; a database which defines the membership function (MF) used in the
fuzzy rules; and a reasoning mechanism, which performs the inference procedure upon the rules and a
given condition to derive a reasonable output (Nayak et al, 2005). The basic structure of FIS is shown in
Figure 1. The degree of “belongingness” to a set or category can be described numerically by a membership
function with range from 0 to 1. Several types of FIS are reported in literature (Mamdani and Assilian,
1975; Takagi, and Sugeno, 1985; Sugeno, and Kang, 1988). The most commonly used FIS are: Mamdani
and Takagi-Sugeno type. Main difference between Mamdani and Sugeno type systems is that the Sugeno
output membership functions are either linear or constant. A typical fuzzy rule in a Sugeno-fuzzy model
has the form:
If x is A and y is B then z = f(x, y) (1)
where A and B are fuzzy sets in the antecedent while z = f (x, y) is a crisp function in the consequent;
f(x, y) is a polynomial in the input variables x and y. When f (x, y) is a first order polynomial, the resulting
fuzzy inference system is called a first order Sugeno fuzzy model and when f is a constant, a zero-order
Sugeno-fuzzy model is obtained. The ANFIS architecture consists of a fuzzification layer, inference process,
defuzzification layer and summation as final output layer. The framework of ANFIS is shown in Figure 2.
In the figure, the ANFIS process flows from layer 1 to layer 5. It is started by giving a number of sets of
crisp values as input to be fuzzified in layer 1, passing through inference process in layer 2 and 3 where
rules are applied calculating output for each corresponding rules in layer 4 and then in layer 5 all outputs
from layer 4 are summed up to get one final output.

Figure 1: Fuzzy Inference System

Figure 2: Framework of ANFIS

128 Nazrin Ullah, Parthasarathi Choudhury, Jotish Nongthombam and Parthajit Roy

ANFIS uses a hybrid learning algorithm to construct an input-output mapping based on both human-
knowledge as fuzzy if-then rules and stipulated input-output data pairs for neural networks. The fuzzy rule
base is set up by combining all categories of variables. In the case of a river flow, the categories may be
described as ‘low’, ‘medium” and “high” etc. The number of rules in a fuzzy rule base will be given by c m ,
where c = number of categories per variable and m = number of variables. The output of the rule base takes
the form oi,j,k for each combination of category i of input variable x, category j of input y and category k of
input variable z. A problem with three inputs with each input being divided into three categories will have
27 rules in the rule base. A part of the rules for such a problem may be written as (Chau et al., 2005):
• If x is low, y is low, and z is low, then the output o1,1,1 = a 1x + b 1y + c 1z + d 1;
• If x is low, y is low, and z is medium, then the output o1,1,2 = a 2x + b 2y + c 2z + d 2;
• If x is high, y is high, and z is high, then the output3,3,3
o = a 27x + b 27
y + c z27+ d ; 27where a (...), b(...), c(...)
the parameters of the fuzzy output functions. Parameters in the ANFIS model are estimated through
training of the network minimizing error between predicted and actual output; a hybrid algorithm
that combines least square method and gradient descent method is used to optimize the model
parameters. The optimized premise parameters describe shape of the membership functions and the
consequent parameters measure overall output of the system.

3. STUDY AREA
Application of the ANFIS based flood damage forecasting model is made to a river network in Barak basin
in India. The Barak River is the second largest river in the North-eastern regions of India and rises in the
state of Nagaland at an elevation of approximately 2,300 meters. The drainage area of the River is
approximately 14,500 sq.kms. Barak valley is having a population of about 2.98 million. The sub basin is
situated on the route of south-west monsoon; it receives an annual rainfall of 2500-4000mm having 80-
85% from Mid-April to Mid-October. Flood is very complex and acute in the valley. During monsoon it
receives 2-3 flood waves almost every year, inundating vast part of the valley and causing widespread
damages. Agriculture being the main occupation of about 70-75% of the population in the valley, the
problem of recurrent flood jeopardizes economic growth and development in the region.
In this study, a river network bounded by three upstream inflow gauging stations and a downstream
outflow gauging station in the main river Barak is selected for application of the flood damage forecasting
model. Details of the study area with the river system are shown in Figure 3. The upstream gauging stations
are located at Phulertal in the main river Barak, Tulargram in the tributary Sonai and at Matijuri in the
tributary Katakhal. Applying ANFIS model, flood flow and inundation area at the downstream location,
Badarpurghat is predicted for known flow levels at the three upstream sites.

Figure 3: Barak River and Its Tributaries

 Flood Flow and Damage Forecasting in a River System Using ANFIS 129

4. APPLICATION
Applicability of the model in forecasting downstream flow depths and flood damages is demonstrated by
using it on a river network in Barak Basin. Downstream flow depths and damages in terms of inundation
area at Badarpurghat are predicted using upstream flow depths measured at three different locations. It may
be seen from Figure 3 that a number of tributaries namely Chiri, Madhura, Sonai, Katakhal etc. join the
main river Barak in the reach Lakhipur to Badarpurghat. Flow depth data recorded for river Sonai, Katakhal
and main river Barak at Lakhipur and Badarpurghat are collected from CWC, Shillong for the year 2003-
2005. Correlation test conducted using three upstream flow depths and downstreamflow depths/downstream
inundation area shows that correlations between upstream and downstream flow depths ranges from 0.85-
0.95 while the value varies from 0.80-0.95 when upstream flow depths and downstream inundation area
are used. The results indicate that there exists a relationship between upstream and downstream flow depths
and also downstream inundation area has a functional relationship with upstream flow depth(s). Data series
depicting concurrent flow depths at four locations for the period 2003-2005 have been used to develop the
ANFIS model for flood forecasting. Different studies(Chau et al,2005; Chidthong et al.,2009) interpret
that for achieving optimal performance of a data-driven model nearly 50% of the data should be used for
training, 20-25% for validation and the rest 20-25% of the data may be used for testing the network
performances. In the present study, the same criterion is followed and a total of 9864 sets of input-output
data consisting of flow depths for four stations in the river system have been used. Takagi- Sugeno ANFIS
model is used for forecasting downstream flow depths and damages using upstream flows. The most
suitable topology of ANFIS depicting number of categories, types of input/output membership functions,
number of rules etc is determined by trials. To determine appropriate topology for estimating downstream
damages and flow depths trials using upstream and downstream flow depths are conducted. Trial results
are evaluated in terms of RMSE and it is found that two categories for inputs with Gaussian input and
Constant output membership functions give the best performing model architectures. With this selected
topology, ANFIS model for forecasting flow depths and damages is developed in the following format:
[hP(t – 1) : (*) B(t)] (2)
[hT(t – 1) : (*) B(t)] (3)
[hM(t – 1) : (*) B(t)] (4)
[hP(t – 1), h (t
T
– 1) : (*) (t)]
B
(5)
[hT(t – 1), h M (t – 1) : (*)B(t)] (6)
[hP(t – 1), h M(t – 1) : (*) (t)]
B
(7)
[hP(t – 1), h (t
T
– 1), h M
(t – 1) : (*)B(t)] (8)
where hP(t – 1), hT (t – 1), hM (t – 1) represent flow depths at Phulertol, Tulargram and Matijuri respectively
at time (t – 1). (*) (t)
B
represents flow depth (h) or extent of inundation (l) at the downstream station,
Badarpurghat at time (t). The models are calibrated using upstream flow depth(s) and downstream flow
depth(s)/inundation length to develop forecasting model for the river reach. Model performances are
estimated using statistical criteria such as RMSE, CE etc. given by the following equations:

n 2
Qˆ t Qt
RMSE = t 1 (9)
n
130 Nazrin Ullah, Parthasarathi Choudhury, Jotish Nongthombam and Parthajit Roy

2
n
(Qt Q ) Qˆ t Q
t 1
R2= n n (10)
(Qt Q )2 Qˆ t Q
t 1 t 1

n 2
Qˆ t Qt
t 1
1 n
CE = 2 (11)
Qt Q
t 1

n
1
MAE = Qˆ t Qt (12)
n t 1

where Qt = observed value at time t, Qˆ t = modeled value at time t, Qt = mean of the observed data, and
Qt mean of the modeled data, n = total number of observations.
For obtaining inundation area at the downstream station, toposheets in the scale of 1:50,000 collected
from Survey of India are used, scanned and digitized. Using ArcGIS tool, DEM given in Figure 4 depicting
surface elevations for the downstream damage locations in the river system is prepared. Corresponding to
a recorded flow depth at the downstream station; length of water surface across the stream depicting
inundation length is measured. Three sets of inundation lengths are obtained; one set at the downstream
gauging site and the other two sets approximately one and a half kilometers upstream and downstream of
the gauging site; the measured lengths are averaged to determine average inundation length for the
downstream site. The estimated inundation length represents average inundation area and extent of flood
damage at the downstream station and is used with corresponding flow depths at the upstream stations to
develop the forecasting model. ANFIS models with inputs as upstream flow depth at one location only, at
two locations and at three locations are used to predict downstream flow depth and damages. The results
obtained by using different models for forecasting 1-hour ahead flow depth and flood damages in terms of
inundation area at the downstream station are listed in Table 1. The values shown in the table against single
and two upstream flow models represent average performances for three cases in that category.

Table 1
Model Performance Statistics for 1-hour Ahead Forecasting of Downstream Flow Depths and Inundation Area
Performance Single upstream flow Two upstream flows Three upstream flows
indices
Flow depths Damage Flow depths Damage Flow depths Damage
pred.(m) pred.(m) pred.(m) pred.(m) pred.(m) pred.(m)
RMSE 0.646 0.071 0.533 0.064 0.492 0. 060
R2 .895 0.880 0.916 0.884 0.928 0.893
CE 0.876 0.842 0.914 0.873 0.927 0. 885
MAE 0.479 0.057 0.409 0. 051 0. 381 0.046
 Flood Flow and Damage Forecasting in a River System Using ANFIS 131

Figure 4: Digital Elevation Model of the Study Area

5. DISCUSSION
Model performances evaluated in terms of statistical parameters shown in the table indicate that ANFIS
model is capable of efficiently forecasting downstream flow depths and inundation area in a river system.
Model prediction capability for different number of upstream flows is represented by the statistical indices
in the table. Results obtained demonstrate that model performances improve with inclusion of more number
of upstream flows in the model. In the present case, average inundation area for the downstream station is
estimated using GIS tool and the same set of upstream flow(s) are used in the models to predict downstream
flow depth/inundation area. It is also seen from the performance results listed in Table 1 that model efficiency
in terms of RMSE and MAE are better in forecasting downstream inundation area. Figures 5, 6 and 7
represent scatter plots showing observed and predicted flow depths and inundation area for models with
single, two and three upstream inflows. The figures show that the observed and the predicted values of the
models match closely for prediction of both flow depths and inundation area. The study demonstrates
application of ANFIS model in modeling river flow and may be applied to a river system for forecasting
downstream flow depth and damages.

(a) Flow depth forecasting (b) Inundation forecasting

Figure 5: Scatter Diagram Showing Predicted and Observed Data of one Input Model
132 Nazrin Ullah, Parthasarathi Choudhury, Jotish Nongthombam and Parthajit Roy

(a) Flow depth forecasting (b) Inundation Forecasting

Figure 6: Scatter Diagram Showing Observed Value and Predicted Values of Two Inputs Model

(a) Flow depth forecasting (b) Inundation Forecasting

Figure 7: Scatter Diagram Showing Observed Value and Predicted Values of Three Inputs Model

6. CONCLUSION
Flood forecasting and developing warning systems for a river reach is necessary for flood damage mitigation.
Flood flow and damages at a river site are dependent on river stages, discharge, flow velocity etc and are
non-linear functions of upstream flows. Degree of non-linearity and model complicacy is further increased
in the case of a river system requiring sophisticated tools for solution. ANFIS is efficient in modeling
complex systems, mapping non-linearity and is used in the present study to develop flood damage forecasting
model for the Barak river system. Downstream flood flow and damages being related to upstream flow
conditions, same set of upstream flow depths are used to develop forecasting model for the downstream
station. River stage data for four gauging stations are used in the study to develop the flow and damage
forecasting models. Inundation area corresponding to flow depths at the damage site is estimated using
DEM and are used with corresponding upstream flow depth values to calibrate the damage forecasting
model. Best performing model topology is decided by trials; model architectures representing two input
categories with Gaussian input and constant output membership functions are used to develop forecasting
models for the river system. Different combinations of upstream flows are used in the model to predict the
downstream flow and damage variables 1-hour ahead. Standard statistical criteria are used to evaluate the
model performances. The present study depicts application of ANFIS models in forecasting flood flow and
damages in a river system. Results obtained indicate that ANFIS model is efficient in forecasting downstream
flow and flood damages. Same set of upstream flows can be used to predict downstream flow and damage
variables. Performance results show that model prediction capability is improved when lateral tributary
flows are incorporated.
 Flood Flow and Damage Forecasting in a River System Using ANFIS 133

Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Central Water Commission, Shillong for supplying data. We are also
highly thankful to DST (SERC) and Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata for giving full assistance in carrying
out the study.

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