FOCUS ON AG

Written by Kent Thiesse

Farm Management Analyst and Vice President, MinnStar Bank
August 5, 2019

ASF DISEASE IMPACTS THE HOG INDUSTRY

One of the hottest topics in the world’s swine industry today, as well as in the entire agriculture and
animal health sectors, is the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and other countries. Many
concerns have also been raised about the potential animal health and economic impacts to the U.S.
swine industry. While ASF is not present in the U.S., or any other country in the western hemisphere,
the disease is leading to some changes in disease protocols in this country, as well as having some
economic impacts to the ag industry.

ASF is a highly contagious viral disease that only infects pigs. Humans have never contracted ASF
anywhere in the world and there is no food safety risk from ASF. Other animals and pets are not
susceptible to ASF disease, unless the pet is a pig. There is a very high mortality rate in pigs that are
infected with the AFS virus. AFS disease is typically spread in swine by close contact such as nose-to-
nose, ingestion of uncooked infected meat products, or by equipment and humans. The AFS virus can
last up to 30 days in fecal material and organic matter, up to 140 days in fresh pork products, and
indefinitely in frozen pork. Currently, there is not a vaccine to prevent or control ASF.

AFS disease has been around for a long time, primarily confined to regions of Eastern Europe that
were not major hog production areas; however, AFS has now spread into Asia in a big way. ASF was
first confirmed in China in August of 2018, spreading quickly through the many small swine herds that
exist across the country. By early 2019, ASF disease had been positively identified in nearly every
Province in China, and the impacts of the disease continue to worsen. ASF disease has now also been
confirmed in the Southeast Asian countries of Vietnam, Cambodia, and Mongolia, and is continuing to
spread across the region.

China is the number one producer and consumer of pork in the world, producing and consuming close
to half of the world’s total pork last year. In 2017, prior to the ASF outbreak, China harvested and
processed 700 million pigs, which is approximately five times the level in the U.S. Now in 2019, it is
estimated that 150 to 200 million pigs could die or be destroyed in China as a result of ASF disease.
These alarming numbers are having a huge impact on Chinese pork producers and processors, the
Chinese agriculture industry, and the overall economy of the country.

China normally imports approximately two percent of the total pork that is consumed in the country;
however, this represents almost 20 percent of the total world pork trade. Major suppliers have been the
United States and Europe. Many analysts are projecting Chinese pork imports to increase by 40 percent
in 2019 to compensate for the lost production. Based on the expected increased demand in China, U.S.
pork prices rose dramatically from late February to early April this year, with the lean hog price
increasing by over $25 per hundredweight; however, in recent weeks, lean hog prices have dropped
back to more moderate levels

The U.S. should be in a good position to meet the increased demand for pork products in China, due to
the large levels of hog production and pork supplies that currently exist in this country. However, the
ongoing trade war with China, which adds about a 62% tariff on Chinese pork imports from the U.S.,
is tempering Chinese pork purchases from the U.S., resulting in increased Chinese pork imports from
Europe and other countries.
USDA is working closely with leaders in the swine industry, State Veterinarians, State Agriculture
Departments, and Land-Grant Universities to develop strategies to prevent and control AFS disease.
These collaborative efforts also involve managing the disease, if an AFS outbreak should occur in the
North America, as well as working on vaccines to prevent AFS. USDA has also initiated a coordinated
approach for AFS surveillance and prevention methods.
ASF surveillance and prevention efforts currently being implemented by USDA include:
 Adding ASF to the existing surveillance efforts for classical swine fever, including expansion
of the testing capabilities and capacity of the National Animal Health Laboratory Network.
 Work with State Veterinarians and the swine industry to test sick and high-risk pigs for the ASF
virus, including wild hogs and feral swine, in order to isolate any potential ASF outbreak before
it spreads.
 Work collaboratively with agriculture and animal health officials on a coordinated approach to
prevent ASF, control any disease outbreaks, and manage trade issues associated with ASF.
 Special attention by U.S. Customs and Border Protection staff at ports of entry into the U.S.,
especially for passengers, cargo, and products arriving from China and other ASF positive
countries.
 Increased surveillance at key U.S. commercial seaports and airports by detector dogs with U.S.
Customs and Border Protection to find illegal products being transported into the U.S.
Five important facts for the public to remember about ASF disease:
1. ASF is not a public health threat in the U.S. or other countries. ASF is a disease that only
affects swine, and there is no evidence that ASF has ever infected humans or other livestock.
2. ASF is not a food safety concern and pork products are safe to eat. Even though ASF does
not affect humans, USDA has strict protocols in place to prohibit sick animals from entering the
food chain. USDA also prohibits pigs or fresh pork products to be allowed into the U.S. from
any country that is positive for ASF disease.
3. ASF has never been confirmed in the United States. In fact, ASF is not present anywhere in
North or South America, and is only currently present in China, other Southeast Asia countries,
Africa, and some Eastern European countries.
4. Caution is required when travelling to ASF positive countries. Anyone that travels to China
or any of the other ASF positive countries should be aware of the impacts that could result if
AFS were introduced in the U.S. Travelers should follow proper safety protocols and adhere to
the guidelines set forth by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
5. Collaborative efforts are in place to keep ASF out of the United States. USDA is working
with State Veterinarians and pork industry officials to develop a strategic plan to prevent ASF
from entering the U.S., as well as to control the disease if an outbreak should occur. These
efforts also include working very closely with Canada and Mexico.
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Note --- For additional information contact Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Senior
Vice President, MinnStar Bank, Lake Crystal, MN. (Phone --- (507) 381-7960);
E-mail --- kent.thiesse@minnstarbank.com) Web Site --- http://www.minnstarbank.com/