Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Brics
Brics
Brics
These four countries are creating a new wave of optimism (some would even say
hype) for investors starved of attractive investment destinations. MINT advocates
are citing the number of new millionaires emerging from these economies, as well
as their GDP growth, to make their case.
But advocates have been wrong before - look at the BRICs story.
Leading the world in terms of freshly minted millionaires is Indonesia, which has
seen 22% rise in their number over the past year. While Mexico, with only 7%
increase, is the laggard in the MINT group, it still does better than the worst-
performing BRICs nation Russia, which had a 4.8% increase.
The trouble with this catchphrase analysis is that the US is still prominently
positioned in the 4th slot. It had 9.5% increase in millionaires, not bad for an
economy that is usually discussed only in gloomy terms.
The millionaire barometer also becomes a lightning rod for criticism, notably
from within the countries being celebrated. Mexico's poor track record in
managing wealth distribution, where the country's former finance minister has
stated that the rich in Mexico earns nine times more than the poor on an average,
is surely not one to bandy around.
Also, Wealth Insight itself states that one of the reasons it is bullish on MINT
countries is that they are showing the same young upwardly mobile demographic
that once drew the world's capital to BRICs countries. Therefore, it will be logical
to assume that this growth cycle is part of a one-time expansion, which will peter
out in time.
Yet, the mass kidnapping of schoolgirls in Nigeria is anything but normal. Such
developments are exposing the deep dysfunction in the country's governance.
When the country's president is accused of sacking the head of the central bank,
investigating a rumoured $20 billion siphoning of oil revenues, global investors
may find it hard to summon the confidence to invest in such a volatile
environment.
For a long time, the argument was advanced that issues like corruption are an
integral part of 'doing business' in emerging markets. However, India just voted
out one of its most scam-tainted governments whose corrupt activities led to the
economic stagnation that clouded the growth prospect of a once-dynamic
economy.
Indonesia, which is in the middle of its election season (both parliamentary and
presidential), is hoping that a strong mandate from the people can get the
economy into the top gear once again. Growth slipped to under 6% for the first
time since 2009, but the Presidential favourite Joko Widodo has sparked hope
with his bold pronouncements on the economy.
China and Australia are particularly aggressive in courting Indonesia, seeing the
country as a gateway to deeper access to the South-east Asian markets.
Of all the MINT nations, Turkey has probably the dodgiest claim to being
regarded as an investment hotspot. While the country delivered amazing growth
numbers in the past decade, close to 9% GDP growth in both 2010 and 2011, the
slide since has been quite disturbing.
Doubtlessly, all the MINT economies have great potential and individual
strengths. However, due diligence is what investors must always do, regardless of
the catchphrase involved