NY 27 CD

SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT

AUGUST 2019
OVERALL RESULTS

QUESTION 1. HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO VOTE IN THE 2020 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
FOR CONGRESS:

# %
1. DEFINITELY 430 86
2. PROBABLY 58 12
3. PROBABLY NOT BUT COULD CHANGE MIND 11 2

TOTAL 500

QUESTION 2. DO YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF THE JOB DONALD TRUMP IS DOING

AS PRESIDENT?

# %
1. STRONGLY APPROVE 306 62
2. SOMEWHAT APPROVE 96 19
3. SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 27 5
4. STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 58 12
98. NOT SURE 10 2
99. REFUSED 3

TOTAL 500

APPROVE 402 81%

DISAPPROVE 85 17%
NET APPROVE 317 64%
APPROVE : DISAPPROVE 4.7:1

QUESTION 3. CHRIS COLLINS

# %
1. VERY FAVORABLE 126 25
2. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 175 35
3. SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 48 10
4. VERY UNFAVORABLE 75 15
5. NO OPINION 63 13
6. NOT AWARE 13 3

TOTAL 500

FAVORABLE 301 60%

DISAPPROVE 123 25%
NET FAVORABLE 178 36%
FAVOR : UNFAVOR 2.5:1

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OVERALL RESULTS

QUESTION 4. BETH PARLATO

# %
1. VERY FAVORABLE 18 4
2. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 51 10
3. SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 28 6
4. VERY UNFAVORABLE 15 3
5. NO OPINION 94 19
6. NOT AWARE 294 59

TOTAL 500

FAVORABLE 69 14%
UNFAVORABLE 43 9%
NET FAVORABLE 26 5%
FAVORABLE : UNFAVORABLE 1.6:1

QUESTION 5. CHRIS JACOBS

# %
1. VERY FAVORABLE 116 23
2. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 127 25
3. SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 23 5
4. VERY UNFAVORABLE 13 3
5. NO OPINION 101 20
6. NOT AWARE 120 24

TOTAL 500

FAVORABLE 243 49%

DISAPPROVE 36 7%
NET FAVORABLE 207 41%
FAVOR : UNFAVOR 6.7:1

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OVERALL RESULTS

QUESTION 6. STEFAN MYCHAJLIW

# %
1. VERY FAVORABLE 101 20
2. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 127 25
3. SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 24 5
4. VERY UNFAVORABLE 17 3
5. NO OPINION 89 18
6. NOT AWARE 142 28

TOTAL 500

FAVORABLE 227 45%

DISAPPROVE 41 8%
NET FAVORABLE 186 37%
FAVOR : UNFAVOR 5.5:1

QUESTION 7. STEVE HAWLEY

# %
1. VERY FAVORABLE 53 11
2. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 52 10
3. SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 19 4
4. VERY UNFAVORABLE 9 2
5. NO OPINION 88 18
6. NOT AWARE 279 56

TOTAL 500

FAVORABLE 105 21%

UNFAVORABLE 28 6%
NET FAVORABLE 78 16%
FAVORABLE : UNFAVORABLE 3.8:1

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OVERALL RESULTS

QUESTION 8. ROB ORTT

# %
1. VERY FAVORABLE 51 10
2. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 69 14
3. SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 19 4
4. VERY UNFAVORABLE 12 2
5. NO OPINION 90 18
6. NOT AWARE 258 52

TOTAL 500

FAVORABLE 120 24%

UNFAVORABLE 31 6%
NET FAVORABLE 90 18%
FAVORABLE : UNFAVORABLE 3.9:1

QUESTION 9. DAVID BELLAVIA

# %
1. VERY FAVORABLE 204 41
2. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 87 17
3. SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 14 3
4. VERY UNFAVORABLE 5 1
5. NO OPINION 75 15
6. NOT AWARE 114 23

TOTAL 500

FAVORABLE 292 58%

DISAPPROVE 19 4%
NET FAVORABLE 273 55%
FAVOR : UNFAVOR 15.3:1

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OVERALL RESULTS

QUESTION 10. IF THE 2020 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION FOR CONGRESS WAS HELD
TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE: CHRIS COLLINS, BETH PARLATO AND
CHRIS JACOBS, FOR WHOM WOULD YOU BE VOTING?

# %
1. COLLINS 171 34
2. LEAN COLLINS 57 11
3. JACOBS 103 21
4. LEAN JACOBS 29 6
5. PARLATO 19 4
98. NOT SURE 120 24
99. REFUSED 1

TOTAL 500

COLLINS 228 46%

JACOBS 132 26%
NET COLLINS 96 19%
COLLINS : JACOBS 1.7:1

QUESTION 11. IF CHRIS COLLINS DECIDED NOT TO SEEK RE-ELECTION, WHICH OF THE
FOLLOWING CANDIDATES WOULD YOU VOTE FOR TO REPLACE HIM IN THE
2020 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY:

# %
1. DAVID BELLAVIA 163 33
2. STEVE HAWLEY 27 5
3. CHRIS JACOBS 119 24
4. STEFAN MYCHAJLIW [MUH-HI-LEW] 32 6
5. ROB ORTT 26 5
6. BETH PARALTO 12 2
98. NOT SURE 120 24
99. REFUSED 1

TOTAL 500

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OVERALL RESULTS

QUESTION 12. AND IF CHRIS COLLINS DECIDED NOT TO SEEK RE-ELECTION, WHICH OF
THE FOLLOWING CANDIDATES WOULD YOU VOTE FOR TO REPLACE HIM IN
THE 2020 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY:

# %
1. DAVID BELLAVIA 203 41
2. CHRIS JACOBS 137 27
3. BETH PARALTO 28 6
98. NOT SURE 131 26
99. REFUSED 1

TOTAL 500

QUESTION 13. AND IF CHRIS COLLINS DECIDED NOT TO SEEK RE-ELECTION, WHICH OF
THE FOLLOWING CANDIDATES WOULD YOU VOTE FOR TO REPLACE HIM IN
THE 2020 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY:

# %
1. CHRIS JACOBS 195 39
2. STEFAN MYCHAJLIW [MUH-HI-LEW] 80 16
3. BETH PARALTO 29 6
98. NOT SURE 193 39
99. REFUSED 3

TOTAL 500

QUESTION 14. IF PRESIDENT TRUMP WERE TO PUBLICLY SUPPORT A CANDIDATE IN THE

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FOR CONGRESS IN THIS DISTRICT, WOULD THAT
MAKE YOU VERY LIKELY, SOMEWHAT LIKELY, SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY
OR VERY UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT THAT CANDIDATE?

# %
1. VERY LIKELY 169 34
2. SOMEWHAT LIKELY 177 35
3. SOMEWHAT UNLIKLEY 41 8
4. VERY UNLIKLEY 40 8
98. NOT SURE 71 14
99. REFUSED 2

TOTAL 500

LIKELY 346 69%

UNLIKELY 81 16%
NET LIKELY 265 53%
LIKELY : UNLIKELY 4.3:1

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OVERALL RESULTS

QUESTION 15. IF CHRIS COLLINS DOES NOT SEEK RE-ELECTION...BASED ON

EVERYTHING YOU SEEN, READ OR HEARD ABOUT THE
CANDIDATES RUNNING FOR CONGRESS, WHICH ONE DO YOU THINK WOULD
GIVE PRESIDENT TRUMP THE STRONGEST SUPPORT FOR HIS AGENDA?

# %
1. DAVID BELLAVIA 160 32
2. STEVE HAWLEY 30 6
3. CHRIS JACOBS 95 19
4. STEFAN MYCHAJLIW [MUH-HI-LEW] 21 4
5. ROB ORTT 13 3
6. BETH PARALTO 12 2
98. NOT SURE 168 34
99. REFUSED 1

TOTAL 500

QUESTION 16. IF CHRIS COLLINS DOES NOT SEEK RE-ELECTION...BASED ON

EVERYTHING YOU SEEN, READ OR HEARD ABOUT THE
CANDIDATES RUNNING FOR CONGRESS, WHICH ONE DO YOU THINK WOULD
BE LEAST SUPPORTIVE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S AGENDA?

# %
1. DAVID BELLAVIA 49 10
2. STEVE HAWLEY 21 4
3. CHRIS JACOBS 92 18
4. STEFAN MYCHAJLIW [MUH-HI-LEW] 20 4
5. ROB ORTT 15 3
6. BETH PARALTO 24 5
98. NOT SURE 278 56
99. REFUSED 1

TOTAL 500

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SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT
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OVERALL RESULTS

QUESTION 17. DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS LIBERAL OR CONSERVATIVE IN YOUR

POLITICAL BELIEFS?

# %
1. VERY LIBERAL 13 3
2. SOMEWHAT LIBERAL 24 5
3. SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE 141 28
4. VERY CONSERVATIVE 235 47
5. MODERATE [DO NOT READ] 82 16
98. NOT SURE 4 1

TOTAL 500

CONSERVATIVE 376 75%

LIBERAL 37 7%
NET CONS 339 68%
CONS : LIB 10.1:1

QUESTION 18. AGE

# %
1. 18-29 16 3
2. 30-44 58 12
3. 45-54 72 14
4. 55-64 118 24
5. 65-74 116 23
6. 75+ 121 24

TOTAL 500

QUESTION 19. GENDER

# %
1. MALE 260 52
2. FEMALE 240 48

TOTAL 500

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SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT
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OVERALL RESULTS

QUESTION 20. VOTER HISTORY

# %
1. 1 OF 4 360 72
2. 2 OF 4 96 19
3. 3 OF 4 33 7
4. 4 OF 4 11 2

TOTAL 500

QUESTION 21. CELL PHONES

# %
1. YES 236 47
2. NO 264 53

TOTAL 500

QUESTION 22. COUNTY

# %
1. ERIE 207 41
2. GENESEE 36 7
3. LIVINGSTON 47 9
4. MONORE 19 4
5. NIAGARA 85 17
6. ONTARIO 56 11
7. ORLEAN 23 5
8. WYOMING 28 6

TOTAL 500

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