Probability and Statistics

B Madhav Reddy

madhav.b@srmap.edu.in

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 What is probability?
Uncertainty - condition when results/outcomes are not completely
determined and the outcomes are affected by a number of factors or
the outcomes may be by pure chance
Simple examples of uncertainty- buying a lottery ticket, turning a
wheel of fortune, or tossing a coin to make a choice
Uncertainty appears in virtually all areas of Computer Science and
Software Engineering
Installation of software requires uncertain time and often uncertain
disk space
A newly released software contains an uncertain number of
defects/bugs

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When a computer program is executed, the amount of required
memory may be uncertain
When a job is sent to a printer, it takes uncertain time to print, and
there is always a different number of jobs in a queue ahead of it
Electronic components fail at uncertain times, and the order of their
failures cannot be predicted exactly
Viruses attack a system at unpredictable times and affect an
unpredictable number of files and directories.

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Everyday instances of uncertainty

Stock markets
Chance of rain on any particular day
Bus pick-up times
The quantity of food that has to be served daily in the mess/canteen
And . . . . . .

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Thus, most of the phenomena we come across are highly uncertain
We have to understand and deal with it
In fact, consciously or unconsciously, we are dealing with it in our day
to day life
Most of the time, we are forced to make decisions under uncertainty
Examples -
we have to deal with internet and e-mail knowing that we may not be
protected against all kinds of viruses
new software has to be released even if its testing probably did not
reveal all the defects
some memory or disk quota has to be allocated for each customer by
servers, internet service providers, etc., without knowing exactly what
portion of users will be satisfied with these limitations. And so on.

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Probability is all about measuring and dealing with uncertainty and
randomness
In this course, we will learn
how to evaluate probabilities, or chances of different results (when the
exact result is uncertain),
how to select a suitable model for a phenomenon containing
uncertainty and use it in subsequent decision making,
how to evaluate performance characteristics and other important
parameters for new devices and servers,
how to make optimal decisions under uncertainty

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 Statistics
This part of the subject deals with collection of data, organizing it
and analysing it for any possible conclusions
The data we are interested may be people, computers, cars or any
objects we have to analyze
By population, we mean all the units/objects we are interested in.
Population may not always mean people!
If the population is too large, we sometimes do sampling to estimate
the population characteristics
The technique of sampling/estimation is very crucial and can lead to
varying conclusions if not done ethically!

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 Do you know him?

Mr. X
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Communal riots broke out during India-Pakistan partition in 1946-47
In Delhi, the capital city, an unknown number (say n) of refugees
(majority of them are Muslims) who choose to remain in India arrived
to seek shelter in the iconic red fort
The Government employed contractors to feed them. The contractors
used to submit bills (of different commodities like rice, pulses, salt
etc.) to the government to claim the money

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A Secretary to the Government of India suspected that the
contractors were over quoting the commodities they purchased and he
thought of asking a statistician to go inside the Red fort and count
the number of refugees
So he called Mr. X, who is a statistician, for help. But, when Mr. X
along with his people tried to enter red fort, the guards at the gate
did not allow them to go inside as they were not members of the
same community as the refugees
So, the problem now is to “estimate the unknown number, n”, of
refugees “without entering the fort”
How do we do that?

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What Mr. X did is the following:
He, along with his team surveyed to estimate per capita/person
consumption of rice, pulses and salt.
They found out that these numbers are r , p and s respectively
Suppose R, P, S are the amounts quoted by the contractor for rice,
pulses and salt, then estimate for number of people is Rr or Pp or Ss
R P S
They got r = 30, 253 p = 21, 122 and s = 10, 891
Which of these is the correct estimate for number of refugees?
Since salt was the least priced commodity, contractors usually do not
over quote the salt quantity, and hence Mr. X chose the number
S
s = 10, 891
The actual number of refugees was 10, 887!

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 Moral of the story?
Though statistics is a powerful tool to make decisions, this tool should be
wisely coupled with common sense, ethics etc. to get the
accurate/unbiased results!

Mr. X is none other than P C Mahalanobis, he was one of the

members of the first planning commission of independent India
and founder of the well known Indian Statistical Institute
For his contributions, Mahalanobis is considered as the father of
modern statistics in India and his birthday June 29 is celebrated as
National Statistics day!

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