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A Study On Fundamental Technical Analysis of Banking FMCG Sectors PDF
A Study On Fundamental Technical Analysis of Banking FMCG Sectors PDF
Of
At
GUIDED BY:
PREPARED BY:
201500615010028
Declaration
I declare that this submitted work is done by me and to the best of my knowledge; no such
work has been submitted by any other person for the award of degree or diploma.
I also declare that all the information collected from various secondary and primary sources has
been duly acknowledged in this project report.
_______________
Ishan Modi
(2015006615010028)
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
PREFACE
Management today is must for day-to-day life. Management is the integral part of the business.
In this world, all things need proper management for its success. Business without proper
management is like a castle of sand built on seashore. Even individuals need proper management
for running their life smoothly. Only theoretical knowledge is not enough in MBA along with
one needs some practical exposure in the corporate world also. MBA provides this opportunity
through the medium of summer training. This training has made one thing clear that there are
two pillars for getting success in business i.e. efficiency and effectiveness; it means not only
doing right things but also doing things rightly.
In MBA Theory of any subject is important but without its practical knowledge it becomes
unless particularly for the Management Students. As a student of the Master of Business
Administration, we have studied many theories and concepts in the classroom, but only after
taking up this project work we have experienced & understood these Management theories &
practices in its fullest sense, which plays a very vital role in business field today. The knowledge
of management is incomplete without knowing the practical application of the theories studied.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I am glad to express my profound sentiments of gratitude to all who rendered their valuable help
for the successful completion of this project report titled “FUNDAMENTAL AND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF BANKING & FMCG SECTOR” at “TRADEBULLS
SECURITIES PVT. LTD”.
I would also like to thank our DIRECTOR SIR, R.P.SONI for giving us a Peaceful and calm
atmosphere to help in our Study, and make this report.
My genuine sense of gratitude goes to GLS UNIVERSITY that gave me a chance to brighten
my academic qualification that provided me this opportunity to have a practical knowledge of
relevant fields.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
I have undertaken my internship in financial sector at Trade bulls Securities (p) ltd. Trade bulls
securities is a stock broking firm providing a wide range of financial services & various
investment products.
The project includes in detail theory of fundamental analysis. All the ratios used in the
fundamental analysis are explained in report further. There are also some pros and cons of the
fundamental analysis which are explained in detail in the further part of the report.
The project also explains about the history of the Indian stock market, banking sector as well.
Further in the report it will help to enhance the knowledge regarding the select the good bank to
purpose of investment for the different type of investors.
The project also explained various aspects of technical analysis i.e. moving averages, relative
strength index and rate of change, which are the basic statistical tools for technical research.
Apart from that I have interpreted the technical data using charting tool with the help of the chart
patterns are created over a period of time.
I have taken the historical data of some well-known banks and FMCG companies in Indian stock
market.
All the banks financial position and its future growth prospectus is being explained in the project
report which will help to select the best banks for investing.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION IV
PREFACE V
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT VI
1.3 OBJECTIVES 5
1.4 SCOPE 5
1.6 SAMPLING 5
2.2 HISTORY 8
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∑ ITC
∑ HUL
∑ P&G
CH:3 COMPANY PROFILE 13-15
3.1 INTRODUCTION 14
3.2 AIM 14
3.3 PHILOSOPHY 14
3.4 TEAM 15
3.5 INTEGRITY 15
3.6 INNOVATION 15
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∑ LINE CHART 22
∑ CANDLESTICK CHART 23
ASSETS (%):
31
∑ OPERATING PROFIT / TOTAL ASSETS (%)
32
∑ OPERATING EXPENSES / TOTAL ASSETS
33
∑ EPS
5.2 AXIS BANK 34-41
∑ NET PROFIT MARGIN (%) 34
∑ OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN 35
∑ RETURN ON ASSETS (%) 35
ASSETS (%)
∑ OPERATING PROFIT / TOTAL ASSETS (%) 39
40
∑ OPERATING EXPENSES / TOTAL ASSETS
40
∑ EPS
5.3 SBI 41-48
∑ NET PROFIT MARGIN (%) 41
∑ OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (%) 42
∑ RETURN ON ASSETS (%) 42
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∑ EPS 47
∑ EPS 54
∑ EPS 57
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LIST OF TABLES
ASSETS (%):
31
∑ OPERATING PROFIT / TOTAL ASSETS (%)
32
∑ OPERATING EXPENSES / TOTAL ASSETS
33
∑ EPS
5.2 AXIS BANK 34-41
∑ NET PROFIT MARGIN (%) 34
∑ OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN 35
∑ RETURN ON ASSETS (%) 35
ASSETS (%)
∑ OPERATING PROFIT / TOTAL ASSETS (%) 38
39
∑ OPERATING EXPENSES / TOTAL ASSETS
40
∑ EPS
5.3 SBI 41-48
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ASSETS (%)
45
∑ OPERATING PROFIT / TOTAL ASSETS (%)
46
∑ OPERATING EXPENSES / TOTAL ASSETS
47
∑ EPS
5.4 HUL 48-51
∑ Ratio 48
5.5 ITC 52-54
∑ Ratio 52
5.6 P&G 54-57
∑ Ratio 54
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LIST OF CHARTS
ASSETS (%):
32
∑ OPERATING PROFIT / TOTAL ASSETS (%)
32
∑ OPERATING EXPENSES / TOTAL ASSETS
33
∑ EPS
5.2 AXIS BANK 34-41
∑ NET PROFIT MARGIN (%) 34
∑ OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN 35
∑ RETURN ON ASSETS (%) 36
ASSETS (%)
39
∑ OPERATING PROFIT / TOTAL ASSETS (%)
40
∑ OPERATING EXPENSES / TOTAL ASSETS
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∑ EPS 40
5.3 SBI 41-48
∑ NET PROFIT MARGIN (%) 41
∑ OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (%) 42
∑ RETURN ON ASSETS (%) 43
ASSETS (%)
45
∑ OPERATING PROFIT / TOTAL ASSETS (%)
46
∑ OPERATING EXPENSES / TOTAL ASSETS
47
∑ EPS
5.4 HUL 48-51
∑ CURRENT RATIO 49
∑ RETURN ON EQUITY 49
∑ NET PROFIT RATIO 50
∑ DEBT EQUITY RATIO 51
∑ EARNINGS PER SHARE 51
5.5 ITC 52-54
∑ CURRENT RATIO 52
∑ RETURN ON EQUITY 53
∑ NET PROFIT MARGIN 53
∑ EPS 54
∑ EPS 57
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1. Research Methodology
∑ Literature review
∑ Problem statement
∑ Objectives
∑ Scope
∑ Research Design
∑ Sampling
∑ Data Collection Sources
∑ Beneficiary of Study
∑ Limitations of study
∑ Merits of Study
“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
Profitability of Indian banks had remained skewed. Foreign banks are still more profitable than
private and public sector counterparts. During 2009-2010, foreign banks accounted for close to
12 % of the total net profit of the commercial banks in the country. As against this, their share in
total assets of Indian banking sector stood at 7%. This could be attributed to low-cost CASA
(current and savings account) deposits, diversification of income as well as higher ‘other income’
such as treasury activities and other fee-based businesses.
Chatterjee (2011)
Indian banking suffered some setbacks during early months of 2011 because of the prevailing
unfavourable environment across the globe. Population served per office declined to 13,100
during the period. The asset size of scheduled banks was estimated at INR 71.8 trillion by March
2011.The persistent high interest rate slowed down the credit demand and decorated the asset
quality of the banks, especially in the public sector.
Shah ( 2012)
The Indian banking sector has seen unprecedented growth along with remarkable improvement
in its quality of assets and efficiency since economic liberalisation began in the early 1990s.From
providing plain vanilla banking services, banks have gradually transformed into universal banks.
ATMs, internet banking, mobile banking and social banking have made ‘’anytime anywhere
banking’’ the norm now.
Das(2014)
In terms of sectors, Rajan said there was no way but to fund infrastructure projects in a big way
as there was no alternative funding route for the big projects. However, he said banks would
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have to practice more informed and engaged banking. He complained that banks cannot
outsource project evaluation and in house skills have to be used. To avoid scandals, Rajan said
banks must see that promoters bring better equity and not leverage equity for a new project
Jain (2015)
RBI Governor was confident that the Indian banking system will tide over the NPAs problem by
bringing more effectiveness in the Joint Lenders Forum mechanism, Strategic Debt Restructuring
and 5/25 scheme as well as enactment of the Bankruptcy Law and sufficient capital infusion in
PSBs by the Govt.
Bansal (2016)
One of the reasons for banking sector’s NPA woes is the absence of strong bankruptcy laws in
India. There is no single law dealing with either insolvency or bankruptcy in India. Some cases
of liquidation are handled by state high courts while others are dealt under the old Provincial
Insolvency Act. Once the bankruptcy code is passed, it will become easier for sick companies to
wind up their businesses, facilitate turnarounds and allow investors to exit their investments.
Das (2016)
With the bankruptcy Act in place, banks can breathe easy, at least in the medium term, as
corporate borrowers now intensify their efforts to avoid loan defaults and the likely loss of
management control of business. This empowered lenders to bargain strongly in matters of asset
recovery, while borrowers gained with lower borrowing costs after three-four quarters. So banks
are empowered with more rights to take legal action against the defaulters to curb the NPA
problem which keeps government and bankers on their toes.
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(source: https://www.questia.com/library/journal/1P3-3728573561/financial-performance-of-select-fmcg-companies-in)
in their study attempted to explore the effects of components of working capital management of
selected FMCG firms on their profitability. Using secondary data from Prowess database of
CMIE for a period of 10 years from 2000-01 to 2009-10, the study concludes that there is
negative association between working capital management variables and firm's profitability
during the study period.
FMCG scenario
(Source:http://www.esciencecentral.org/journals/a-study-on-consumer-behavior-towards-fmcg-products-among-the-
rural-suburban-hhs-of-ernakulam-2375-4389.1000127.pdf)
The term FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), although popular and frequently used does not
have a standard definition and is generally used in India to refer to products of everyday use.
Conceptually, however, the term refers to relatively fast moving items that are used directly by
the consumer. The Indian FMCG sector has a market size of US$ 13.1 billion and is the fourth
largest sector in the Indian economy. A well-established distribution network, mature logistics,
intense competition between the organized and unorganized segments, National brands and
private labels/local brands characterize the sector. It has been estimated that FMCG sector sales
in India is likely to increase from Rs. 92,100 cores in 2011-12, to over Rs.1,30,000 cores in
2015. With the presence of 12.2% of the world population in the villages of India, the Indian
rural FMCG market is formidable indeed. The Indian rural market has more than 700 Million
Consumers (70% of the Indian population) and accounts for 50% of the total FMCG market. The
Personal care category in India was valued at Rs. 54.6 billion. An average Indian spends 8% of
his income on personal care products. Personal care mainly consists of Hair Care Skin Care, Oral
Care, Personal Wash (Soaps), Cosmetic and Toiletries, Feminine Hygiene. The sales of FMCG
Personal care segment is growing by leaps and bounds in Kerala, with the most literate and trans-
culture embracing consumers in India. Kerala has been witnessing a social transformation over
the past decade to form a modern consumerist state with little focus on farming sector, increased
interest in I.T related parks, educational services, medical facilities and tourism, higher income
with huge remittances from the NRI’s and increased living standards even in the rural areas
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
providing better growth prospects and demand for the FMCG sector. The per capita consumption
of FMCG products is on the rise, thanks to the consumer acculturation.
1.3 Objectives
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
ÿ Newspapers / Articles
1.8Beneficiaries of study
∑ Researcher: Being as a student I would be having conceptually clarity of fundamental
analysis.
∑ Also it is useful to know the technical analysis.
∑ Investors: This study will be helpful to the investors’ decision for ‘Reasons to buy’ and
‘Reasons to not buy’ of Banking sectors and FMCG stocks.
1.9Limitation of the study
∑ Study analyse the performance of the three banks for the last five years and comparison is
made for their performance in the different years.
∑ As I am fresher, I may not have expertise knowledge in field of stock market.
∑ The other major constraint was the time period. I am having only 6 weeks to complete the
whole research, so I had taken only 3 FMCG and also gone through some of the ratios of
fundamental analysis. As the topic is too wide I can only have conceptual clarity because of
time constraint.
1.10 Merits of the study
∑ Fundamental Analysis
ÿ Identifying the intrinsic value of a security.
ÿ Identifying long-term investment opportunities, since it involves real-time data.
∑ Technical analysis :
ÿ Helps to identify a trend, allowing investors to make predication on future trends.
ÿ Allows investors to judge the direction of the current trend and enable them to gauge the
best time position in the market.
ÿ When it is used in conjunction with fundamental analysis and company ad industry related
news, it minimizes the chances of investors incurring losses.
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2. Banking and FMCG Industry
∑ Introduction
∑ History
∑ Banking Sector in India
ÿ SBI
ÿ ICICI
ÿ AXIS
2.1 Introduction
Banking system plays an important role in a country’s economy. It promotes growth and
development of the country. The organized institutions in the banking system serve a source of
short term credit to agriculture, Industry, trade and commerce.
In the Indian banking structure the Reserve bank of India is the central bank. It regulates, direct
and control the banking and financial institutions in the country .There are three high banking
institutions namely RBI, NABARD AND EXIM Bank. There are separate financial institutions
catering to the needs of different sectors of the economy. Development banks, investment banks,
co-operative banks, commercial banks in public and private sectors. NABARD, RRBs, EXIM
bank, etc.
Banking in India originated In the last decades of the 18th century. The first banks were the
general bank of India, which started in 1786, and bank of Hindustan, which started in 1790; both
are now defunct. The oldest bank in existence in India is the state banks of India, which
originated in the bank of Calcutta in June 1806, which almost immediately became the bank of
Bengal. This was one of the three presidency banks, the other two being the bank of Bombay and
the bank of madras, all three of which were establish under charters from the British East
IndiaCompany. For many years the presidency bank acted as quasi-central banks, as did their
successors. The three banks merged in 1921 to form the imperial bank of India, which, upon
India’s independence, became the state bank of India in 1955.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
R.B.I
Non-
Scheduled
Scheduled
Banks
Banks
Scheduled Scheduled
Commercial Co-Operative
Bank Banks
Scheduled Scheduled
Public Sector Private Sector Regional rural urban co- state co-
Foreign Banks
Banks Banks Banks operative operative
Banks banks
State Bank of India (SBI) are an Indian multinational public sector banking and financial
services company. It is a government-owned corporation with its headquarters in Mumbai,
Maharashtra. As of 2014-15, it had assets of INR 20,480 billion (USD 310 billion) and more
than 14,000 branches, including 191 foreign offices spread across 36 countries, making it the
largest banking and financial services company in India by assets.
ICICI Bank was established by the Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India
(ICICI), an Indian financial institution, as a wholly owned subsidiary in 1994. The parent
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
company was formed in 1955 as a joint-venture of the World Bank India's public-sector banks
and public-sector insurance companies to provide project financing to Indian industry. The bank
was founded as the Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Bank, before it
changed its name to the abbreviated ICICI Bank. The parent company was later merged with the
bank.
Axis Bank established in 1993 was the first of the new private banks to have begun operations in
1994 after the Government of India allowed new private banks to be established.Axis Bank Ltd.
has been promoted by the largest and the best Financial Institution of the country, UTI. The Bank
was set up with a capital of Rs. 115 crore, with UTI contributing Rs. 100 crore, LIC – Rs. 7.5
crore and GIC and its four subsidiaries contributing Rs. 1.5 crore each. Axis Bank is one of the
first new generation private sector banks to have begun operations in 1994.
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ITC vision is to sustain ITC’s position as one of India’s most valuable corporations to world
class performance, creating growing value for the Indian economy and the Company’s
shareholders.
ITC mission is to enhance the wealth generating capability of the enterprise in a globalizing
environment delivering superior and sustainable stakeholder value.
Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) is an Indian consumer goods company based in Mumbai,
Maharashtra. It is owned by Anglo-Dutch Company Unilever which owns a 67% controlling
share in HUL as of March 2015 and is the holding company of HUL. HUL's products include
foods, beverages, cleaning agents, personal care products and water purifiers.
HUL was established in 1933 as Lever Brothers and, in 1956, became known as Hindustan Lever
Limited, as a result of a merger between Lever Brothers, Hindustan Vanaspati Mfg. Co. Ltd. and
United Traders Ltd. It is headquartered in Mumbai, India and employs over 16,000 workers,
whilst also indirectly helping to facilitate the employment of over 65,000 people. The company
was renamed in June 2007 as "Hindustan Unilever Limited".
Hindustan Unilever's distribution covers over 2 million retail outlets across India directly and its
products are available in over 6.4 million outlets in the country. As per Nielsen market research
data, two out of three Indians use HUL products.
Hindustan Unilever ranked No. 2 in Fortune India's Most Admired Companies list, which was
released by Fortune India in partnership with the Hay Group. The company received the highest
scores for endurance and financial soundness.
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Procter & Gamble Co., also known as P&G, is an American multinational consumer
goods company headquartered in downtown Cincinnati, Ohio, United States, founded
by William Procter and James Gamble, both from the United Kingdom.[2] Its products include
cleaning, and personal care products. Prior to the sale of Pringles to the Kellogg Company, its
product line also included foods and beverages.
In 2014, P&G recorded $83.1 billion in sales. On August 1, 2014, P&G announced it was
streamlining the company, dropping around 100 brands and concentrating on the remaining 65
brands, which produced 95 percent of the company's profits. A.G. Lafley, the company's
chairman, president and CEO until October 31, 2015, said the future P&G would be "a much
simpler, much less complex company of leading brands that's easier to manage and operate".
David Taylor became P&G CEO and President effective November 1, 2015. P&G remains a
highly selective employer as less than 1% of all applicants are hired annually.
P&G Mission is to provide branded products and services of superior quality and value that
improve the lives of the world's consumers. As a result, consumers will reward us with
leadership sales, profit, and value creation, allowing our people, our shareholders, and the
communities in which we live and work to prosper.
P&G vision is to be and be recognized as the best consumer products and services company in
the world.
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3. Tradebulls Securities Pvt. Ltd.
∑ Introduction
∑ Aim
∑ Philosophy
∑ Team
∑ Integrity
∑ Innovation
∑ Product and Services
3.1 Introduction
Tradebulls securities (p) limited demonstrate its commitments to clients through the Company's
emphasis on excellence, integrity and ethical behavior. Tradebulls was formed with one basic
principle in mind to create a professional workforce of youngsters to provide fair and transparent
prices and services to the clients. High standard of service with true professionalism have been
woven into the fabric of the company.
Group companies:
3.2 Aim
"To provide world-class Wealth Management Services by arranging all conceivable financial
services under one-roof at affordable costs through cost effective delivery systems, and to
achieve organic growth in business by adding newer lines of business, with the help of self-
motivated and aggressive team of young professionals."
3.3 Philosophy
The company’s philosophy is entirely client centric, with a clear focus on providing long term
value addition to clients, while maintaining the highest standards of excellence, ethics and
professionalism.
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3.4 Team
We are a cavalcade of passionate youngsters who believe in attaining goals collectively and
collaboratively.
3.5 Integrity
A company honoring commitment with highest ethical and business practices.
3.6 Innovation
Our ability to develop unique solutions to meet our client’s need is paramount in our day to day
decision making.
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4. Introduction of the topic
∑ Fundamental Analysis
∑ Company Analysis
∑ Technical Analysis
“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking and FMCG Sector”
Fundamental Analysis (FA) is a holistic approach to study a business. When an investor wishes
to invest in a business for a long term (say 3 – 5 years) it becomes extremely essential to
understand the business from various perspectives. It is critical for an investor to separate the
daily short term noise in the stock prices and concentrate on the underlying business
performance. Over a long term, the stock prices of a fundamentally strong company tend to
appreciate, thereby creating wealth for its investors.
Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well-being of the
economy, industry group and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to develop a forecast
of future price movement and profit from it. At the company level, fundamental analysis may
involve examination of financial data, management, business concept and competition. At the
industry level, there might be an examination of supply and demand forces of the product. For
the national economy, fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present
and future growth of the economy.
To forecast future stock price, fundamental analysis combines economy, industry, and company
analysis to derive a stock’s fair value called intrinsic value. If fair value is not equal to the
current stock price, fundamental analysis believes that the stock is either over or under valued.
As the current market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair values, the fair value should be
estimated to decide whether to buy the security or not. By believing that prices do not accurately
reflect all available information, fundamental analysis look to capitalize on perceived price
discrepancies.
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1. Too many economic indicators and extensive macroeconomic data can confuse vice
investors.
2. The same set of information on macroeconomic indicators can have varied effects on same
currency at different times.
3. Its beneficial only for long-term investments.
4.2COMPANY ANALYSIS
At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data,
management, business concept and competition. Financial statements are the medium by which a
company discloses information concerning its financial performance. The fundamental analyst
use the quantitative information gained from financial statements to make investments decisions.
RATIOS:
Ratios are relationships from a company’s financial information and used for comparison
purposes.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking and FMCG Sector”
∑ Return on Assets
Formula: Net income / Total Asset
Interpretation: The return on assets ratio measures how effectively a company can earn a
return on its investment in assets. In other words, ROA shows how efficiently a company can
convert the money used to purchase assets into net income or profits.
∑ Return on equity / net worth
Formula: Net income / shareholder’s equity
Interpretation: The return on equity or ROE is a profitability ratio that measures Ability of a
firm to generate profits from its shareholder’s investments in the company.
∑ Net interest margin
Formula: (Interest income-Interest expenses)/Average earning assets
Interpretation: Net interest margin (NIM) is a measure of the difference between the
interest income generated and the amount of interest paid out to their lenders (Ex: Deposits,
RBI) relative to the amount of their (interest earning) assets.
∑ Interest income / Total Assets (%)
Formula: Net interest income earned / Total assets
Interpretation: It is the measure that relates the interest income earned by banks with total
assets. A higher ratio indicates efficient lending practices of the banks and income generated
from lending.
∑ Non-interest income / Total Assets (%)
Formula: Other income / Total Assets
Interpretation: Non-interest income generally includes deposits, transaction fees, annual
fees, service charge, etc. This ratio indicates the proportion of such income with respect to
total investment in assets. A higher ratio of non-interest income is desirable.
∑ Operating profit / Total Assets (%)
Formula: (Operating income-Operating expenses)/Total Assets
Interpretation: Operating profit is the difference between the revenue and expenses. That a
firm gains from daily activities. A higher operating profit / Total assets Shows operating
efficiency of the firm with respect to its investment in Assets.
∑ Operating expenses / Total Assets
Formula: (Selling, general and administrative expenses) / Total Assets
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Interpretation: Operating expenses / Total assets ratio shows the proportion of operating
expenses like selling, distribution and administrative expenses with total assets of the firm. A
higher operating expenses / total assets ratio shows higher cost. A lower operating expenses /
Total assets ratio is desirable.
∑ EPS
Formula: Net profit / Total number of outstanding shares
Interpretation: Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company's profit allocated to each
outstanding share of common stock. Earnings per share serve as an indicator of a company's
profitability.
∑ BALANCE-SHEET: A balance sheet is a financial statement that summarizes a company's
assets, liabilities and shareholders' equity at a specific point in time. These three balance
sheet segments give investors an idea as to what the company owns and owes, as well as the
amount invested by shareholders.
∑ PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT: A profit and loss statement (P&L) is a financial
statement that summarizes the revenues, costs and expenses incurred during a specific period
of time, usually a fiscal quarter or year. These records provide information about a
company's ability – or lack thereof – to generate profit by increasing revenue, reducing costs,
or both. The P&L statement is also referred to as "statement of profit and loss", "income
statement," "statement of operations," "statement of financial results," and "income and
expense statement."
∑ FINANCIAL GRAPHS: It is the visual presentation of the financial data of the companies.
It is a very important tool for getting a financial overview of the company like profits, sales,
return on capital employed, dividend, etc.
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1) Markets discount everything– This assumption tells us that, all known and unknown
information in the public domain is reflected in the latest stock price. For example there could be
an insider in the company buying the company’s stock in large quantity in anticipation of a good
quarterly earnings announcement. While he does this secretively, the price reacts to his actions
thus revealing to the technical analyst that this could be a good buy.
2) The ‘how’ is more important than ‘why’– This is an extension to the first assumption.
Going with the same example as discussed above – the technical analyst would not be interested
in questioning why the insider bought the stock as long he knows how the price reacted to the
insider’s action.
3) Price moves in trend- All major moves in the market is an outcome of a trend. The concept
of trend is the foundation of technical analysis. For example the recent upward movement in the
NIFTY Index to 7700 from 6400 did not happen overnight. This move happened in a phased
manner, in over 11 months. Another way to look at it is, once the trend is established, the price
moves in the direction of the trend.
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4) History tends to repeat itself– In the technical analysis context, the price trend tends to
repeat itself. This happens because the market participants consistently react to price movements
in a remarkably similar way, each and every time the price moves in a certain direction.
TYPES OF CHARTS
∑ Line chart
∑ Japanese candlestick chart
ÿ Line chart:
The line chart is the most basic chart type and it uses only one data point to form the chart. When
it comes to technical analysis, a line chart is formed by plotting the closing prices of a stock or an
index. A dot is placed for each closing price and the various dots are then connected by a line .If
we are looking 60 days data then the line chart is formed by connecting the dots of the closing
prices for 60 days.
The line charts can be plotted for various time frames namely monthly, weekly, hourly etc. So, if
you wish to draw a weekly line chart, you can use weekly closing prices of securities and
likewise for the other time frames as well.
The advantage of the line chart is its simplicity. With one glance, the trader can identify the
generic trend of the security. However the disadvantage of the line chart is also its simplicity.
Besides giving the analysts a view on the trend, the line chart does not provide any additional
detail. Plus the line chart takes into consideration only the closing prices ignoring the open, high
and low. For this reason traders prefer not to use the line charts.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking and FMCG Sector”
ÿ Candlestick chart:
A candlestick chart is a financial graph in which the open and close prices are displayed by a
rectangular body. In a candle stick chart, candles can be classified as a bullish or bearish candle
usually represented by blue/green/white and red/black candles respectively. Needless to say, the
colors can be customized to any color of your choice; the technical analysis software allows you
to do this. we have opted for the blue and red combination to represent bullish and bearish
candles respectively.
Let us look at the Bullish candle. The candlestick, like a bar chart is made of 3 components.
1. The Central real body – The real body, rectangular in shape connects the opening and closing
price
2. Upper shadow – Connects the high point to the close
3. Lower Shadow – Connects the low point to the open
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking and FMCG Sector”
This is how the candlestick chart looks like if you were to plot them on a time series. The blue
candle indicates bullishness and red indicates bearishness
ÿ RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX — RSI: The Relative Strength Index Technical Indicator
(RSI) is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to
recent losses in an asset.
ÿ ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: The ―advance/decline line shows, for some period, the
cumulative difference between advancing and declining issues.
ÿ HEAD AND SHOULDERS FORMATION: Once a chart is drawn, analysts examine it for
various formations or pattern types in an attempt to predict stock price or market direction in
the case of head-and-shoulders formation. When the stock price ―pierces the necklineǁ after
the right shoulder is finished, it‘s time to sell.
ÿ MOVING AVERAGE: Moving averages are trend indicators and are frequently used due to
their simplicity and effectiveness. Moving averages can be calculated for any time frame,
from minutes, hours, and hours to years. Any time frame can be selected from the charting
software based of your requirements.
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5. Fundamental Analysis
∑ Banking Industry
5.1 ICICI Bank
∑ FMCG Industry
5.4 HUL
5.5 ITC
5.6 P & G
“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
∑ In March 2012, the net profit of the bank stood at 19.27 % and grew to a high of 22.76 % in
March 2015 due to increase in profit in proportion to sales while it reduced to a low of
18.44% in March 2016 due to reduced profits compared to previous years.
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-0.07%
-0.10%
-0.11%
∑ The operating profit margin of the bank reduced drastically from March 2012 to March
2016 due to higher operating expenses against Net interest income over a period of 5 years.
Return on Assets:
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Return on asset
1.64 1.72
1.55
1.36 1.34
∑ The return on assets of the bank remained quite consistent between 1.36 in March 2012, to a
high of 1.72 in March 2015 and 1.34 in March 2016. The bank has earned consistently
against the capital invested in assets.
Return on equity
13.89
13.39
12.48 11.19
10.7
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
∑ The bank’s return on equity rose from 10.7% in March 2012 to 13.89% in March 2015 and
slipped to 11.19% in March 2016 due to rise and fall in income compared to shareholders
equity.
∑ The net interest margin of the bank was 0.02 as of March 2012 and grew to a consistent
figure of 0.03 over period of March 2013 to March 2016, which shows banks effective
lending practices and efficiency.
Interest income
7.59
7.46 7.42
7.31
7.08
∑ The Interest income of the bank remained range bounded from March 2012 to March 2016
against its total assets which shows consistency in banks quality in lending practices.
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Non -interest income / Total Assets (%): Other income / Total assets
Non-interest income
2.12
1.75 1.88
1.58 1.55
∑ Banks other income grew to 2.12% in March 2016 compared to 1.58% in March 2012 which
shows rise in earning from other sources of bank.
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∑ The operating profit of the bank grew to 1.28% in March 2016 compared to 0.77% in March
2012 which shows banks efficiency in operations and management of liquidity over a period
of time.
Operating expenses / Total Assets (%): (Selling, general and administrative expenses) / Total Assets
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∑ The operating expenses of the bank rose to 1.75% in March 2016 compared to 1.65% in
March 2012 and remained range bounded over a period of time which shows efficiency and
control over operating expenses.
EPS
12
10 19.3
6
56.1
4
0
Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16
∑ The EPS of the bank over a period of time rise and fall due to increase and decrease in profits
from March 2012 to March 2016.
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Ratio Analysis:
20.73
20.29
19.28 19.05
∑ The Net profit margin of the bank reduced to 20.73% as of March 2016 compared to 22.35%
as of March 2012 because of greater increase in rate of sales compared to rate of increase in
net income of the bank.
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Operating profit margin: NII (net interest income-operating exp.) / Total interest income
7.74
5.76
4.05
2.52
∑ The Operating profit margin of the bank surged to 14.15% as of March 2016 compared to
2.52% as of March 2012. This shows bank’s efficiency over controlling cost’s relatively with
rise in interest income which also reflects banks efficient and quality lending practices.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
Return on asset
1.62
1.59
1.52
1.48
1.39
∑ The return on assets of the bank surged to 1.59% as of March 2016 compared to 1.39% as of
March 2012. This shows banks capacity to earn over investment done in assets.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
∑ The return on equity of the bank declined to 16.46% as of March 2016 from the high of
18.59% as of March 2013 due to relatively low growth rate of net income with respect to
shareholder’s equity.
Interest Income / Total Assets (%) : Net interest income earned / Total assets
∑ The Interest income of the bank surged to 7.68% as of March 2016 compared to 6.24% as of
March 2012 due to rise in interest income over total assets. This shows banks effective
lending practices and efficiency.
Non -interest income / Total Assets (%): Other income / Total assets
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
1.81
∑ Non-interest income of the bank decreased to 1.81% as of March 2016 compared to the high
of 1.93% as of March 2015 due to increase in amount of total assets over increase in sources
of other incomes.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
1.55
1.15 1.17
0.91
0.82
∑ The Operating profit of the bank grew substantially from 0.82% as of March 2012 to 1.55%
as of March 2016, because of efficient control over expenses and higher operating income
with respect to assets.
Operating expenses / Total Assets (%) : (Selling, general and administrative expenses) / TA
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
2.1
2.06
2.03
1.99
1.96
∑ The operating expenses of the bank with respect to total assets remain range bounded due to
control over operating expenses and increase in amount of total assets.
EPS
132.56
119.67
102.94
82.95
31.18
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
∑ The EPS of the bank surged from 2012 to 2015 but declined in 2016 due to relatively low
growth rate of profit compared to number of total number of shares.
5.3 SBI:
∑ State Bank of India (SBI) is an Indian multinational, sector bank in Indian financial services
company. It is a government-owned corporation. State Bank of India is a banking behemoth
and has 20% market share in deposits and loans among Indian commercial banks
Ratio Analysis:
11.78
10.99
7.98 8.59
6.07
∑ The Net profit margin of the bank declined to 6.07% as of March 2016 compared to high of
11.78% as of March 2012 and 10.99% as of March 2012, due to decrease in profit over a
period of time.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
Operating profit margin (%): NII (net interest income-operating exp.) / Total interest income
-5.61
-6.21
-11.12
∑ The operating profit margin of the bank declined drastically over a period of time to -11.12%
as of March 2016 compared to -2.48% as of March 2012. This shows bank’s lack of control
over expenses.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
Return on asset
0.87 0.9
0.6 0.63
0.44
∑ The return on Assets of the bank declined to 0.44% as of March 2016 compared to 0.87% as
of March 2012, due to declining profits and rise in assets over a period of time.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
10.2
9.2
6.89
∑ The banks return on equity declined to 6.89% as of March 2016 compared to 19.94% as of
March 2012, due to declining profits and increase in shareholders’ equity.
Interest Income / Total Assets (%) : Net interest income earned / Total assets
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
∑ The interest income of the bank declined to 7.24% as of March 2016 compared to 7.97 as of
March 2012, due to slow rate of growth in interest income compared to increase in Total
assets.
Non -interest income / Total Assets (%): Other income / Total assets
∑ The Non-interest income of the bank surged to 1.24% as of March 2016 compared to 1.07%
as of March 2012, this shows bank’s increase in income from other sources with respect to
total assets.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
1.36
1.03
0.83
0.74
0.53
∑ THE Operating profit of the bank declined to 0.74% of total assets as of March 2016
compared to 1.36% as of March 2012, due to decline in operating profit compared to total
assets.
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
1.99
1.95
1.88
1.86
1.84
∑ The operating expenses of the bank declined to 1.84% of total assets as of March 2016
compares to high of 1.99% as of March 2014. Operating expenses as well as total assets both
surged over a period of time.
EPS
210.06
184.31
156.76
17.55 12.98
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
∑ The EPS of the bank declined to 12.98 as of March 2016 from the high of 210.06 as of
March 2013, due to declined profits over total number of shares. This shows decline in
earning capacity of the bank.
FMCG Industry
5.4 HUL
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
Current Ratios
1.4 1.21
1.2 0.99 1.03 1.05 1.03
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Ratios 1.21 0.99 1.03 1.05 1.03
100
76.62
80
60
40
20
0
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Return on Equity (%) 76.62 142.01 118.04 115.87 110.73
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
DEBT-EQUITY RATIO
0.5 0.44
0.4 0.36
0.34
0.3
0.28
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
DEBT-EQUITY
0.28 0.44 0.34 0.3 0.36
RATIO
15 12.46
10
0
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Basic EPS (Rs.) 12.46 17.56 17.88 19.95 18.87
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
5.5 ITC
2.5
2.05
2 1.82
1.7
1.54 1.59
1.5
0.5
0
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Current Ratio (X) 1.54 1.59 1.7 1.82 2.05
Chart 5.33 CR
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
34 33.51
33.36
33.5
32.88
33
32.5
32
31.36 31.31
31.5
31
30.5
30
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Return on Equity (%) 31.36 32.88 33.36 33.51 31.31
0.063 0.062
0.062
0.061 0.06
0.06
0.059 0.058
0.058 0.057
0.057 0.056
0.056
0.055
0.054
0.053
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
DEBT-EQUITY
0.057 0.062 0.056 0.058 0.06
RATIO
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
EPS (Rs.)
14
12.05
12 11.09
9.45
10
7.93
8 6.45
6
4
2
0
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
EPS (Rs.) 6.45 7.93 9.45 11.09 12.05
5.6 P&G
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
Chart 3.37 CR
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
EPS (Rs.)
120
100.63
100 93.04
80
62.61
55.85
60 45.48
40
20
0
Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
EPS (Rs.) 45.48 55.85 62.61 93.04 100.63
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6. Technical Analysis
∑ Banks
ÿ ICICI
ÿ AXIS
ÿ SBI (State Bank of India)
∑ FMCG Sector
ÿ HUL (Hindustan Unilever Limited)
ÿ ITC ( Imperial Tobacco Company)
ÿ P&G ( Proctor & Gamble)
“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
Technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices
through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.
6.1ICICI bank
CANDLESTCK CHART:
∑ ICICI Bank chart is positive if we look at the long term time frame. We can conclude that on
basis that ICICI Bank is trading above its 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average). If we
take the trend line from 2011 from 2016 as shown in chart, the script is trading above it.
Also it is making higher high and higher lows that are the sign of bullish trend.
RSI CHART:
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∑ RSI_14 has shown buy signal. RSI_14 has made double bottom as seen in the chart and that
also adds bullish sentiment.
ADX CHART:
∑ ADX is giving contradictory assessment, as it is still showing sell signal. When green line
crosses red line then we can say ADX has given buy signal. Right now it is still showing sell
signal.
CANDLETICK CHART
∑ Axis Bank has broken out of the symmetrical triangle pattern and is looking positive now. It
is also trading above all important moving average namely E50, E100 and E200. In fact
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during the last candle in symmetrical triangle pattern, it made marubozu candle stick pattern
which of course suggest bullish trend. It is also trading above its long term trend line.
RSI CHART
∑ RSI_14 is now in overbought zone so some caution is needed. Previously too if we look at
the RSI, it made high of 77 and right now its 72, so there is still some headspace for this
stock to go. RSI has also shown negative divergence but as long as it is above the
symmetrical triangle pattern and long term trend line it should be considered positive.
ADX CHART
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6.3SBI
CANDLETICK CHART
∑ SBIN has taken its crucial support at 200 EMA and has bounced off from that level. Next it
may face resistance at 50 EMA. Previously, we have seen from the chart, when SBIN breaks
above 50 EMA, it has shown significant strength. It is trading above E100 but it needs to
break above 50 EMA. It has also made double bottom which is at 200 EMA and bounced
from that level as seen in the chart. This signifies that the bottom is important as two
important indicators have shown support at that level. SBIN is now at the long term trend
line and if it manages to close above that, then we can say this stock will move up more.
RSI CHART:
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
∑ RSI_14 has crossed and given buy signal indicating fresh long position can be taken. It
concurs with the trend line breakout in RSI_14. If RSI_14 goes above 50, it will indicate
more strength in the stock.
ADX CHART:
FMCG SECTOR
6.4 HUL
CANDLETICK CHART:
Moving Average: - It is also trading above 200 DMA which is considered important for long
term investing.
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Trend line: - HUL is trading above Long term trend line and long term trend is positive. Long
term trend can be under threat if it breaks the trend line level of 730-720. The long term trend
line is taken from the lows of 218 from 2010 to 432 from 2013. Even medium term trend line
shows positive trend with trend reversal below 760. Its short term trend is also positive and short
term trend can reverse when HUL trades below 800. The short term trend is taken from lows of
542 in 2014 to 766 in 2016.
RSI CHART:
∑ RSI is trading at 60 level which shows this stock has more room to go as above 75-80, we
can consider overbought. Also whenever stock is trading above 50, it means there is strength
in stock and should be considered as Buy.
RSI has made triple bottom on monthly chart again showing support at RSI level of 52. If
HUL breaks below 52, then we can consider liquidating long position in HUL.
ADX CHART:
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∑ ADX is showing positive trend since 2010 but if we look at from 2014, volatility is subsiding
indicating consolidation in this stock.
6.5ITC
CANDLETICK CHART:
Moving Average: - It is also trading above 200 DMA But in medium term it is negative because
it had trend reversal and shows the lower in low.
Trend line: - ITC is trading above Long term trend line and long term trend is not comparatively
positive with HUL. Medium term trend can be under threat if it breaks the trend line level of
210-200. The short term trend is taken from lows of 210 in 2014 to 243 in 2016.
RSI CHART:
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“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
∑ RSI is trading at 60 level which shows this stock has more room to go as above 75-80, we
can consider overbought. Also whenever stock is trading above 50, it means there is strength
in stock and should be considered as Buy.
ADX CHART:
∑ ADX is showing positive trend since 2010 but if we look at from 2014, though volatility is
measured in this stock.
6.6P&G
CANDLETICK CHART:
Moving Average:- It is also trading above 200 DMA which is considered important for long
term investing.
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Trend line:- P&G is trading above Long term trend line and long term trend is positive. But
medium term trend line shows negative trend because it had lower low in 2015.
RSI CHART:
∑ RSI is overbought in 2015 at 95.And in 2016 it is at 60. It means there is too much
fluctuation in the stock and should be considered as sell signal.
ADX CHART:
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7. Key Findings
∑ A l egal d eci si on
∑ Th e res ul ts of an i nvesti gat ion
“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
Particulars Findings
SBI Bank Net Profit of the bank is continuously decreasing. In March, 2012 it was
10.99% and in March, 2016 it was around 6%.
Return on Equity & Return on Assets are also not up to the mark, both
are exactly half in March, 2016 as compared with March, 2012.
ADX is still showing negative trend because of fluctuations.
ICICI Bank Net Interest Margin shows effective lending practice and efficiency to
earn stable interest amount every year.
The journey of EPS of ICICI Bank is still in a positive way since 2012.
RSI had shown buy signal in 2014 and still having bullish sentiment.
Axis Bank Operating Profit of the bank is showing the hard core efficiency over
controlling the cost and also improves the quality of lending practices.
Interest income of the bank is slowly and gradually increases. Management
of lending policy works effectively in last 5 years.
The Candlestick chart of Axis Bank has broken out of the symmetrical
triangle pattern and is looking positive now. It is also trading above its long
term trend line.
HUL Earnings per Share of the company shows the positive trend for the
shareholders. Because the journey of last 5 years it is increasing by 6 bugs.
Current and Quick ratio tells the systematic management of the
inventories and other liquid assets. Both are very stable throw-out the long
term period.
The Candlestick Chart is showing that HUL is trading above Long term
trend line and long term trend is positive.
ITC Earnings Per share are suddenly hiked with 100%. In March, 2012 it was
around 6.45 bugs and in last financial y ear it was @12 bugs which shoes
the perfect positive trend to current as well as future investors.
Current ratio, Quick ratio and Total asset T/o ratios are not up to their
benchmark level. It seems that company faced many hurdles to maintain
these ratios up to the mark.
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8. Recommendations
∑ The act of saying that someone or something is good and deserves to
be chosen
∑ A suggestion about what should be done
∑ A formal letter that explains why a person is appropriate or
qualified for a particular job, school, etc.
“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG Sector”
∑ From the analysis and interpretation we found that banking sector is very sensitive to the
changing faces of the economy.
∑ Also bank’s lending practices, risk management practices, liquidity plays an important role in
determining increase or decrease of share price of the bank.
∑ The Net profit margin, Net interest margin, EPS and other fundamentals as well as technical
factors of the private sector bank’s shows an overall positive picture.
∑ FMCG is a market where cut- throat competition is accrued. Every day they introduce a new
product for consumers.
∑ For FMCG companies they have to maintain proper current ratio, quick ratio, profit-sale
margin to survive in the market.
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9. Conclusion
∑ A final decision or judgment : an opinion or decision that is formed
after a period of thought or research
∑ The last part of something
∑ The act of concluding or finishing something or the state of being
finished
“Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Banking & FMCG sector”
∑ From the above project I can conclude that it is easy to know the fundamental situation of
FMCG sector and Banking sector and also do a forecast about the future profits of the
companies.
∑ With the help of technical analysis I have found that, the future price movements of both the
sectors and easy to compare among them. Fundamental and technical analysis are the best
solution if one wants to invest into the stock market and make perfect decisions to choose the
right company at right time.
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