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NOAA TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM NWS NHC 43

ANNUAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION

EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES1988

Prepared by:
Robert A. Case and Gilbert B. Clark
National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Coral Gables, Florida
March 1989

UNITEDSTATES National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE William E. Evans Elbert W. Friday
Robert A. Mosbacher, Secretary Under Secretary and Administrator Assistant Administrator
 INrRODu:-rrON

This is the First report h¥ the National Hurricane Center (NBC) of a con-
tinuing annual series to provide a source of sUIm1arized data on Eastern Pacific
tropical cyclones. It will not duplicate the narrative overview of the hurri-
cane season or the description of individual storms, which will continue to be
published in the r...bnthly Weather Review. In addition to data supplied h¥ the
National Weather Service, rraterials have b:en furnished h¥ the roM Tropical
Satellite arid Analysis Center of NHC, and the CARCAH(Chief Aerial
Reconnaissance CCX>rdination, all Hurricanes).

O~IVE FOROCAST
TEx:::HNIQ~

The following tropical cyclone prediction Irodels ~re used at the

National Hurricane Center for forecasting notion on an q>erational oosis:

EPSANBAR(Sanders and Burpee, 1968). A filtered tarotropic ~el

using input data derived fran the 1000 to 100 rob pressure
~ighted winds.

EPOC81 A statistical-dynamical model.

3. --
EPC:L84 A simulated-analog mJdel oosed on ~rsistence and climatology.

4. EPANAI.(X:;8 5 (Jarrell, Mauck, and Renard, 1975). An analCXJm:>del.

--
EPSS87 A statistical-synaptical model

In addi.tion, ~rational forecasts of tr~ical cyclone intensity

changes in knots at l2-oourly intervals out to 72 murs are generated by
a program named SHIFOR (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecasts).
Generation of the forecaSt equations-was done "by multiple screening
regression techniqre using historical tropical cyclone data as input.
Results OVe!. the past several years have shC1#lnthat SHIFORand official
intensi ty forecasts have canparable skill scores.

The National Hurricane Center uses the ab:Jve m:>dels as guidance in

the formulat:ion of its forecasts. The hurricane forecaster also makes
extensive use of analysis and pr~noses produced l1j ~ and TSlIC (Tropical
Satellite and Analysis Center) in Miami.

VERIFICATION
Verific:ation statistics for the 1988 season are shown in Table 1.
The initial position error in Table 1 is the difference between the opera-
tional initial position and that determined during post analysis (best
track position). The forecast displacement error is the vector difference
between the forecast displacerrent and the actual displacerrent canputed fran
the best-track positions.

1.
2.
5.
DATA SlM-1ARIFS

A summary of the 1988 Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone statistics is

given in Table 2. Tracks of the 1988 storms and hurricanes are sh~ in
figure 1.
The best track, initial, and forecast positions for the 1988 systems
are in Table 3, along with initial position and forecast errors, and
averageerrors.
Table 4 lists all center fix positions and intensity evaluations used
operationally at the National Hurricane Center during the 1988 season.
Fixes are in chronological order, and inclwe those obtained by aer ial
reconnaissance {:enetrations, satellite (Miami TSAC), and land-1:Bsed radar
The legend precedes the initial table.

Graphs of the lCYtlest central pressure versus tilre for the 1988 naI1'ed
tropical cyclones are sh~ in Figure 2.

N:.Kr:mLEI:X;EMENrS

Main contributors ~re Miles lawrence, who canputed the verifi-

cation statistics and Joan David, who drafted the track chart and
pressure/t~ graphs.

2
 REFEREOCFS

Hope, J. R., and B. I. Miller, 1972: "A Statistical ~thod of Canbining

Syrloptic and ElTIpirical Cyclone Prediction Systerns.roM Technical
~orandum NaJSSR-63, U.S. r:epar~t of ~rce, National Weather
Service, Southern Region.

Jarrell, J.D., and C.M. Maock, and R.J. Renard, 1975: The Navy's Analog Schem=.
for Forecasting Tropical Cyclone to'btion Over the Northeast Pacific
Ocean. Technical Paper No. 6-75, Enviro~tal Prediction Research
Facility, Naval Postgraduate School, to'bnterey, California.

Leftwich, P.W., 1981: A Statistical-Dynamical Model for Prediction of Tropical

Cyclone fution in the Eastern North Pacific ~an. roM Technical
~randum ~S WR-169, U.S. ~artlrent of CalIrerce, National Weather
~vice, Western Region.

Leftwich, PoW0' and C oJ0 Newman, 1977: Statistical Guidance on the Prediction
of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone MJtion 0 OOAATechnical
~randum ~S WR-125, U.S. ~tIIent of ~rce, National Weather
Service, Western Region.

NeUffi3.nn,C. J., 1972 : "An Al ternati ve to the HURRANTropical Cyclone Forecast

Systen, " OOAATechnical ~randum ~S SR-62, 24 W.

Neumann, C. J., 1979: "A Guide to Atlantic and Eastern Pacific MOOels for the
Prediction of
NHC:-ll, 26 w. Tropical Cyclone l-btion," -roM Technical r.'k:!lrorandumms

pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane Track Predition by MjustIrent

of the Initial Wind Field, "roM Technical ~rarx1um ~S SR-66, 16 w.

Sanders, F., and R. W. Burpee, 1968: "Experim::!nts in Barotropic Hurricane Track

Forecasting," Journal ~ Applied lo-eteorolc;xJY,Vol. 7, No.3,
W.313-323.

3
 LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND APPENDICES

Figure 1. Tracks of 1988 tropical cyclones

Figure 2. IOIlest pressure vs. t:l1re, 1988 tropical cyclones.

Figure 3. Daily satelli te pho~Jraphs of 1988 tropical cyclones.

Table 1. Verification of 1988 t-ropica1 storm and hurricane forecasts.

Figures in parentheses are the numter of cases.

Table 2. Summary of 1988 tropical cyclone statistics

Table 3a. Best track, initial ffi1d forecast positions, initial position
error and forecast errors for 1988 tropical cyclones.

Table 3b. Best track forecast windspeed verification for 1988 tropicalcyclones.

Table 4. Center fix positions and intensity evaluations for 1988cyclones.

4
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15 1& 17 18 18 20 21 22
DATE -TIM E IUTC)

Fig. 2. RBest trackR minim\n pressure curve for Tropical Storm Aletta, 16-21 June 1988.

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I .I .I .I .I .~ .I .I .I .I I I I I I I I

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OOZ 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 "" 00 12 00 12 00 2 00 "" 00 12. 00 122

Jun. 21 22 23
DATE -TIM E (UTC)

Fig. 2. MinilmIn ~tral pressure for Tropical Storm B.d, 20-22 Jm1e1988.
_.7
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Fig. 2. MiniImn rentral pressure for Tropical 800m Carlotta, 8-]5 July 1988.

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Fig. 2. MinillUm central pressure for Tropical Storm rRniel, 19-26 July 19BB.
8
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OOZI2 00 20012 00 200 200 2 00 IZ 00 12 00 200 2 001200 I2Z
.27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3

DATE -TIM E (UTC)

Fig- Z. Best track min~ central pressure aJrVe for 'ft"~ica1 storm Dnilia,
27 July-2 August, 1988.

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Fig- 2. Best track mininun ~tral pressure curve for Hurricane Fabio,
28 July-9 A\X1USt,1988.
9

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OOZ 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 R. 00 R. 00 12 00 12 00 R. 00 12 00 12 00 I2Z
JUL 28 29 3() 31 01 02 03 AUG

DATE -TIM E (UTC)

2. Best track miniImJII central pressure curve for 'fi'opical storm Gilna,
28 July-3 August, 1988.

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2.: Best track miniImJII ~tra1 pr~e aJrve for Bln-ricane Hector,
31 July-9 AlX3USt,1988. J 0

Fig.
Fig.
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Fig. 2..- ~t track minirnun central pressure alrve for Hurricane Iva,
5-13 August, 1988.

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OOZ 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 I2Z
16 17 18 19 2.0 2.1
DATE -.TLM-E .(UT.I"._.)

Fig- 2~ Best track minimun ~tra1 pressure curve for Tropical Storm John,
16-21 Al:l3ust, 1988. 11

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Fig- '2-.- Best track min~ central pr~sure CJrve for Tropical Storm Kristy,
29 ~t-6 Septant2r, 1988.

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Fig- 2... .i: Fest track miniImJn central pressure 0Jrve for Hurricane lane,
21.-30 Septsn1:er, 1988.
12
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FIG. 2. "Best track" minimum pressure curve for tropical stonn
Miriam, 23 October to 2 November 1988.

I , I 1 I , I , I I I I I I I 1 I 1 ..1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I , I , I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I
OOZ 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12Z
23 24. 25 OCT 26 27 28 29 30 31
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.DATE -TIM E (UTC)

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 2131 urc 6/16/88 1946 urc 6/11/88
2046 ill'C 6/15/88 995 rob
1007 mb

1746 urc 6/18/88

2001 UOC6/19/88
993 rob
1007 rob

1501 ~ 6/21/88
1004 rob 14
Table 1. Verification of 1988 tropical storm and hurricane forecasts.
Track model forecast errors (average in nautical ~les), eastern Pacific, 1988

forecast per iod (hours)

m:>del 0 12 24 36 48 72

Official 20 45 75 103 138 176

(numb?;r of cases) (175) (175) (150) (128) (108) (74)
an.M 68 76 69 109 140 215
(38) (38) (35) (33) (29) (24)

EPCL84 22 47 78 109 138 180

(170) (170) (147) (123) (103) (69)

EPAN85 21 46 77 110 141 191

(1G8) (168) (145) (124) (105) (71)
EPSS87 22 45 73 103 131 182
(171) (171) (148) (126) <106) (72)

SANBAR 18 52 96 144 193 299

(72) (72) (61) (52) (46) (32)

EPHC81 20 43 71 109 141 183

(77) (77) (67) (57) (49) (32)

25
 TABLE 2. 1988 Ea5tern North Pacific hurricane season statistics

nt.nnl::er narre class

* -dates **
naxirnun
sustained wind
ms-l (kt)

1 Aletta T 16-21 Jun 31 (60)

2 Boo T 20-22 Jun 23 (45)

3 Carlotta H 08-15 Jul 34

4 Daniel T .19-26 July 28

5 EInilia T 27 Jul-O2 Alk:J 31

6 Fabio H 28 Jul-O9 AlXJ 62 (120)

7 Gilroa T ,28 Jul-O3 A\X} 23

8 Hector H 30 Jul-09 A~ 64 (125)

9 Iva H 05-13 AlkJ 46 (90)

10 John T :16-21 A\;k:J 18 (35)

11 Kristy H 29 AU:J-O6 Sep 41

12 IGne H :21-30 Sep 46

13 Mir iam T :23-02 ~v 31

*
tropical storm, wilrld speed 18-32 ms-l (34-63 kt).
hurricane, wind speed 33 ms-l (64 kt) or higher.
** Dates begin at 0000 UD: and include tropical depression stage.

26

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OBSERVATIONALUNIT

Satellite
GOES-6 = Geostationary Operational Environrrental Satellite

REsoLurroN

Satellite

Classification confidence*, location and confidence

**, visable or
infrared resolution (km).

*
1 =coop1ete1y certain as to current intensity nurnrer used.
2 =tends to vary up and down by 1/2 T or S numrer.
3 =might vary up or down by one TorS numrer, or m:>re.

**1 =well defined eye with certain picture registration.

2 =well defined eye with uncertain picture registration.
3 =well defined circulation center with certain picture registration.
4 =well defined circulation center with uncertain picture registration.
5 =poorly defined circulation center with certain picture registration.
6 =poorly defined circulation center with uncertain picture registration

(Exarnple-l,l, Vsbl,l = classification confidence 1, location confidence 1,

visible picture with 1 kilometer resolution.)

(Example-2,S, m 8 = classificition confidence 2, location confidence 5,

infrared picture with 8 kilCiteter resolution.)

40
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