Argus Coal Daily International

Coal market prices, news and analysis

Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

News and Analysis prICES

NDRC seeks to ease generators' stocks fears International coal $/t

Measures have been taken to ensure that power plants have Energy Basis Timing Port Price ±
sufficient coal stocks, China’s top economic planning agency
Europe
the NDRC said today amid warnings about weather-related
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths cif ARA 90.53 -1.23
transport disruptions. South Africa
The NDRC’s reassurances were made at a press 6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Richards Bay 96.11 -1.39
conference organised by the State Council Information 5,500 kcal NAR 2mths fob Richards Bay 82.60 nc
Office, attended by China's National Railway Administration Black Sea and Mediterranean
(NRA) and other key transport agencies, to provide 6,000 kcal NAR 1mth cif Turkey mini bulk 106.20 nc
information on logistics ahead of the peak lunar new year 6,000 kcal NAR 2mths cif Turkey supra plus 103.50 nc
travel period in the run-up to 15 February. Russia
The NRA is making full use of the 10 days prior to the 6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Baltic ports 89.25 nc
peak travel period to focus on shipping coal to power plants, 6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Vostochny 101.25 nc
but disruptions are inevitable given recent snow storms and 5,500 kcal NAR 2mths fob Vostochny 88.25 nc

cold weather, it said. 6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Black Sea 94.31 nc
Asia-Pacific
Chinese power generation has increased by around 15pc
6,700 kcal ADB 2mths cif Japan 120.60 nc
on the year since the start of 2018, according to the NDRC,
6,700 kcal ADB 2mths cif South Korea 109.46 nc
indicating firm demand for coal. But the NDRC, ministry of
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Newcastle 106.00 nc
transport and NRA have all taken the necessary measures to
5,500 kcal NAR 2mths fob Newcastle 85.97 nc
address falling supplies at power plants, they said.
fob Qinhuangdao
Current coal stocks held by power plants are at an 5,500 kcal NAR 2mths 117.82 nc
domestic
average of 15 days, which is within acceptable limits, 5,500 kcal NAR 2mths cfr south China 94.64 nc
according to the NDRC. The NRA said it had prioritised 5,500 kcal NAR 2mths cfr east India 92.00 nc
efforts to provide supplies to the 26 power stations 5,000 kcal GAR 2mths cfr east India 79.05 nc
with stockpiles amounting to less than seven days' coal 4,200 kcal GAR 2mths cfr east India 57.31 nc

burn. But many coal mines will be closing early ahead 6,500 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 102.26 nc

of the holiday period and some power plants have been 5,800 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 85.93 nc
5,000 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 70.51 nc
scrambling to restock.
4,200 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 48.85 nc
Four state-owned power plants — State Power
3,400 kcal GAR 2mths fob Indonesia 29.47 nc
Investment, Datang, Huaneng and Huadian — made a joint
Americas
complaint to the NDRC on 22 January about tight coal
11,300 Btu GAR 2mths fob Puerto Bolivar 86.00 nc
supplies and lack of rail capacity. The utilities said power
6,000 kcal NAR 2mths fob Hampton Roads 84.66-93.95 nc
outages were a possibility, with some generators already 11,300 Btu GAR 2mths fob New Orleans 62.75 nc
forced to shut down units because of limited coal stocks — a
result of railway restrictions caused by rising freight rates.
The Harbin and Shenyang railway bureaus have each
increased coal freight rates by 10pc since 15 January. Coal Contents
freight rates from the coal-producing district of Hailar
in Inner Mongolia to Changchun, the capital city of Jilin Coal prices extend losses 3
province, have increased to 9,907.5 yuan ($1,575) for a 60t High winds disrupt Australian coal exports 5
rail car, equivalent to Yn165/t, according to China Railway Blair Athol thermal coal output hits 2mn t/yr 5
— the parent company of the country's regional railway Russia supplies coal to FPG 5
bureaus. Spanish snowfall could lower coal generation 6

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group

Argus Coal Daily International Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Argus assessed spot prices of domestic NAR 5,500 kcal/kg Key power plants daily average coal burn t
coal at Yn747.22/t ($119/t) fob Qinhuangdao on 26 January,
up by Yn8.89/t, or 1.2pc, from a week earlier. This is its
800,000
highest in more than five years. Lunar new year holiday Jan - Feb
700,000 2018 estimated
China’s average daily power generation this winter has
reached around 19.13bn KWh and peaked at 20.1bn KWh, 600,000
a historical high, according to network operator State 500,000
Grid. The power load also rose in other provinces and 400,000
municipalities in eastern and central China.
300,000
A snowstorm in central China sent power loads to
29.07GW for Hubei province on 7 January and to 31.3GW 200,000
in Anhui province on 8 January, while the power load 100,000
in Shanghai municipality on China's east coast reached 0
25.63GW. All three were record winter highs for those areas. 2015 2016 2017 2018

Trades - South Africa (fob Richards Bay)

Delivery
Date Volume Price Buyer Seller EFP Broker Index relevant
period

31-Jan-18 50000 96.00 Apr 2018 No GlobalCoal Yes

Argus cif ARA spot coal assessment $/t Argus Richards Bay spot coal assessment $/t

100 100

95 95
90
90
85
85
80 hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
80
75

70 75

65 70
24 Jan 17 30 May 17 28 Sep 17 31 Jan 18 24 Jan 17 30 May 17 28 Sep 17 31 Jan 18

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 2 of 11

Argus Coal Daily International Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Swaps

Forward prices $/t Coal prices extend losses

Timing Buy Sell Average ± Coal prices fell for a fourth consecutive session pulled
lower by a further fall in the physical market and by the
cif ARA (Rotterdam) API 2
prospect of increased competition from gas in the European
February 89.40 89.90 89.65 -1.25
generation mix.
March 88.15 88.65 88.40 -1.55
European coal prices ended between 95¢/t and $1.75/t
1Q18 90.85 91.35 91.10 -0.95
lower on the session, with the sharpest falls at the back of
2Q18 86.50 87.00 86.75 -1.70
the curve, deepening the backwardation. All contracts —
3Q18 86.25 86.75 86.50 -1.40
bar those for 2020 and 2021 — settled at their lowest level
4Q18 85.95 86.45 86.20 -1.25
for the year and months along the 2018 strip settled below
1Q19 84.55 85.05 84.80 -1.10
$90/t.
2019 82.15 82.65 82.40 -1.70 The API 2 year-ahead started the session a shade higher
2020 78.50 79.00 78.75 -1.70 on the day before peaking in early trading at $84.30/t
2021 77.50 78.00 77.75 -1.75 and then tumbling by $2/t to $82.30/t by 11:22 GMT.
fob Richards Bay South Africa API 4 The contract remained volatile, trading within a $82.25-
February 95.55 96.05 95.80 -1.35 $83.65/t range for the remainder of the session and closed
March 95.05 95.55 95.30 -1.40 at $82.40/t. This was $1.70/t lower on the day and $7.90/t
1Q18 95.95 96.45 96.20 -0.85 lower than where it settled on the last day of 2017.
2Q18 92.85 93.35 93.10 -1.90 The second-quarter contract followed a similar
3Q18 91.60 92.10 91.85 -1.65 trajectory to the year-ahead, and also closed $1.70/t
4Q18 90.25 90.75 90.50 -1.50 lower at $86.75/t. Losses for the third-quarter were less
1Q19 89.15 89.65 89.40 -1.10 pronounced and the contract closed $1.40/t lower at
2019 86.20 86.70 86.45 -1.90 $86.50/t.
2020 82.90 83.40 83.15 -1.65 Swaps came under pressure as the European physical
2021 82.05 82.55 82.30 -1.70 market fell by a further $1.23/t to $90.53/t cif Amsterdam-
API 2 premium to API 4 Rotterdam-Antwerp, with prices for March and April cargoes
Prompt -6.40 -5.90 -6.15 +0.10 continuing to slide.
South Africa to Europe, implied freight rate Based on current prices, UK coal-fired units could be
1Q18 -5.15 -5.05 -5.10 -0.10 pushed almost completely out of base-load generation by
2Q18 -6.40 -6.30 -6.35 +0.20
gas over the coming two months. Coal-fired output averaged
3Q18 -5.40 -5.30 -5.35 +0.25
2GW in January this year down from 6.3GW in January 2017.
4Q18 -4.35 -4.25 -4.30 +0.25
Thermal generation has been much lower year on year this
month, because of higher imports and wind generation and
1Q19 -4.65 -4.55 -4.60 nc
weaker demand.
2019 -4.10 -4.00 -4.05 +0.20
In China, the liquid May coal contract on the Zhengzhou
2020 -4.45 -4.35 -4.40 -0.05
Commodity Exchange remained under pressure today, closing
2021 -4.60 -4.50 -4.55 -0.05
at Yn664.4/t in after-hours trading, which compares with a
price of Yn676/t on Monday.

Forward prices $/t Forward prices $/t

Timing Midpoint ± Timing Midpoint ±

cfr south China 5,500 API 8 fob Newcastle 5,500 API 5

February 95.25 +0.25 February 86.00 +0.25
March 93.50 +0.25 March 84.25 +0.25
1Q18 93.20 nc 1Q18 83.90 nc
2Q18 90.25 nc 2Q18 81.00 nc
3Q18 89.00 nc 3Q18 79.00 nc
4Q18 87.50 +3.00 4Q18 77.50 nc
2019 84.75 nc 2019 74.25 nc

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 3 of 11

Argus Coal Daily International Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

Shipping costs

Dry bulk freight rates Asia-Pacific freight analysis

Route Size ’000t $/t ± Energy Size Freight Coal $/t
Route Basis kcal/kg ’000t $/t fob landed ±
Panamax
Murmansk-Rotterdam 70 7.20 -0.20 EC Australia-Japan NAR 6,000 70 14.60 106.00 120.60 nc
Richards Bay-Rotterdam 70 11.05 -0.10
EC Australia-S Korea NAR 6,000 70 14.30 106.00 120.30 nc
Puerto Bolivar-Rotterdam 70 12.80 -0.10
EC Australia-S China NAR 5,500 70 13.20 85.97 99.17 nc
EC Australia-Japan 70 14.60 nc
EC Australia-S Korea 70 14.30 nc EC Australia-EC India NAR 5,500 70 14.90 85.97 100.87 nc
EC Australia-S China 70 13.20 nc
Indonesia-Japan GAR 6,500 70 7.50 102.26 109.76 nc
EC Australia-EC India 70 14.90 nc
Indonesia-Japan GAR 5,800 70 7.50 85.93 93.43 nc
Indonesia-S China 70 6.50 nc
Indonesia-EC India 70 8.50 nc Indonesia-S Korea GAR 5,800 70 7.20 85.93 93.13 nc
Indonesia-Japan 70 7.50 nc Indonesia-S Korea GAR 5,000 70 7.20 70.51 77.71 nc
Indonesia-South Korea 70 7.20 nc
Indonesia-S China GAR 5,800 70 6.50 85.93 92.43 nc
Capesize
Richards Bay-Rotterdam 150 7.50 -0.70 Indonesia-S China GAR 5,000 70 6.50 70.51 77.01 nc

Puerto Bolivar-Rotterdam 150 7.90 -0.70 Indonesia-S China GAR 4,200 70 6.50 48.85 55.35 nc
EC Australia-S China 150 8.90 -0.30
Indonesia-EC India GAR 4,200 70 8.50 48.85 57.35 nc
Richards Bay-S China 150 10.20 nc
Richards Bay-Krishnapatnam 150 8.20 -0.20 Indonesia-EC India GAR 3,400 70 8.50 29.47 37.97 nc

Richards Bay-Rotterdam, Capesize $/t Australia to south China, Capesize $/t

13 14
12 13
11 12
10
11
9
10
8 hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
9
7
6 8

5 7

4 6
24 Jan 17 30 May 17 28 Sep 17 31 Jan 18 24 Jan 17 30 May 17 28 Sep 17 31 Jan 18

Puerto Bolivar to Rotterdam, Capesize $/t Puerto Bolivar to Rotterdam, Panamax $/t

15 13
14
13 12
12
11 11
10
hhhhhhh hhhhhhh
9 10
8
7 9
6
5 8
24 Jan 17 30 May 17 28 Sep 17 31 Jan 18 24 Jan 17 30 May 17 28 Sep 17 31 Jan 18

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 4 of 11

Argus Coal Daily International
Coal Market News
High winds disrupt Australian coal exports
Australia's Newcastle and Port Kembla ports have restricted
vessel movements, with high winds and heavy seas set to
continue disrupting coal shipments from New South Wales
(NSW) state for the rest of the week.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued strong
marine wind warnings for the Hunter coast, which includes
Newcastle, and the Illawarra coast, which includes Port
Kembla, for today and tomorrow, as well as for much of
the rest of the NSW coast. It expects the winds to subside
slightly on 2 February, but Port Kembla has warned that this
situation could change quickly.
Newcastle has restricted inward movement of vessels at
the entrance to its harbour, while Port Kembla has closed its
anchorage and ordered ships to wait further out to sea.
Port Kembla has shipped 286,474t in January and
nothing in the past 24 hours, according to the Port Kembla
Coal Terminal.
Port Kembla has also faced industrial action this month,
with unionised workers locked out over 7-10 January. But
the union has not notified the port of any further industrial
action and negotiations are moving forward.
There are eight vessels waiting offshore Newcastle waiting
to load, which is a reasonably short queue with an offshore wait
of an average of just two days over the past two weeks.
Blair Athol thermal coal output hits 2mn t/yr
Australia-listed TerraCom hit a 2mn t/yr run rate at its Blair
Athol thermal coal mine in Queensland in December and
expects to maintain output at this average rate in 2018.
TerraCom produced 281,799t of thermal coal from Blair
Athol during October-December, up from 124,250t in July-
September and zero a year earlier. It ramped up to full
production in December and expects to produce 2mn t of
thermal coal from Blair Athol and 1.5mn t of coking coal
form its BNU mine in Mongolia in 2018.
TerraCom's subsidiary Orion Mining sold 158,087t of
thermal coal from Blair Athol in the latest quarter, up
from 46,461t in July-September. This implies it has built up
around 200,000t of stockpiles over the past six months. The
firm has a purchase agreement with an unnamed buyer for
the first six months of coal produced on a price linked to a
benchmark Newcastle coal index, with an option to extend
the deal for a further six months.
Lower-grade thermal coal prices were last assessed at
$85.97/t fob Newcastle for 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal, up from
$60.64/t in May, when Terracom finalised the acquisition of
Blair Athol. TerraCom expects to produce coal with around
5,350 kcal/kg NAR and 12.5pc ash.
Orion is currently trucking coal to an offsite train load-
out facility for haulage to the Dalrymple Bay coal terminal,
where it is shipped to Asia-Pacific. But it is also working with
Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 5 of 11
Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018
Australian rail firm Aurizon to recommission the line that
connects the Blair Athol site with the Goonyella railway,
which links to Dalrymple Bay. This project is expected to
be completed this quarter and will deliver around A$20/t
($16.20/t) in improved margins, according to Terracom.
TerraCom, which was formerly known as Guildford Coal,
agreed to pay just A$1 to buy Blair Athol in July 2016 from
UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto, which paid A$79.6mn to
meet the mine's rehabilitation liability.
Russia supplies coal to FPG
Two large Russian coal suppliers sold a combined 450,000t
of Russian thermal coal for delivery to Taiwan as part of a
tender that concluded earlier this month.
Taiwanese conglomerate Formosa Plastics (FPG) bought
three Capesize cargoes of Russian coal, each for around
150,000t, in a tender that closed on 22 January at an
evaluated price of $125/t on a cfr Taiwan GAR 6,322 kcal/
kg basis (NAR 6,080 kcal/kg). The coal will be used at FPG’s
power generation facilities in Taiwan.
One supplier will ship two Capesize cargoes of NAR
5,500 kcal/kg coal and the other will supply a cargo of high-
calorific value (CV) coal. Freight rates for Capesize vessels
from Russia's far eastern ports of Vanino and Vostochny to
Taiwan are around $4-5/t.
Argus Russian Coal
∙ Spot price assessments and netbacks
∙ Market analysis and exclusive news
∙ Historical prices and volumes since 2007
For more information please contact
the Argus sales department:
+ 44 (0) 20 7780 4200
info@argusmedia.com
Market Reporting
Coal Consulting
illuminating the markets Events
Argus Coal Daily International
Coal Market News
FPG had issued a tender for coal with a minimum CV of
GAR 5,700 kcal/kg or NAR 5,500 kcal/kg, moisture content
of up to 16pc, ash content of up to 17pc, sulphur content of
up to 0.9pc and volatile matter of 24-42pc, for delivery on
Capesize vessels to Taiwan's Mailiao port between 21 March
and 10 April. Besides Russian, FPG also bought a cargo of
thermal coal from South Africa for this tender.
A large Russian producer in the second half of
December sold 70,000t of thermal NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal
to Taiwan Cement at $84/t fob Vanino port for delivery at
the start of February.
The main suppliers of Russian coal to Taiwan are
producer Suek and trading firm Glencore. Trading
company Carbo One, which mainly sells coal produced by
Kuzbassrazrezugol, is also a supplier to the country.
Spanish snowfall could lower coal generation
Higher snowfall in the mountainous area of northern Spain
could reduce demand for gas and coal-fired generation, once
the snow melts and hydropower reserves rise.
Snow reserves in the region totalled 1,478 cubic
hectometres (hm³) for the week ending on 28 January, the
latest data from Spain's environment ministry show. That is
17pc higher compared with the same period last year and
46pc above the five-year average for this period.
Strong snowfall in the area is expected to continue in the
coming days. Domestic meteorological agency Aemet has
issued a warning notice of above-average snowfall over four
days starting on 1 February. Snow cover in these regions is
forecast to reach up to 50cm, Aemet said.
Spanish hydropower stocks increased for the eighth
consecutive week last week, reaching a similar level to
the same period in 2017. Above-average rainfall in the
hydro-intensive region of northwest Spain — where most of
the hydropower plants are located — in recent weeks has
supported inflows to reserves.
Generation from gas and coal-fired plants was
significantly stronger last year as a result of depleted
hydropower stocks. And production from combined-cycle gas
turbine (CCGT) plants is expected to be lower this month
compared with last year, preliminary data from transmission
system operator REE show. Gas-fired generation is forecast
to total 2.29TWh in January, down by 22pc compared with
a year earlier, while coal-fired output is on track to stand at
3.03TWh, falling by 41.3pc.
Higher hydropower generation forecasts year have been
pressuring front-month and March power prices. February
closed at €52.2/MWh yesterday. The price has lost around
€2.80/MWh this year so far and is below the €57/MWh where
the February 2017 contract expired.
The March price closed at €48.45/MWh yesterday, a
€0.30/MWh decline from the previous session.
Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 6 of 11
Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018
Taiwan’s coal imports drop
Taiwan’s imports from Russia in November surged by
393,000t on the year to 647,000t, but fell by 77,000t from
October, reflecting an overall drop in Taiwan’s imports
Taiwanese customs data show.
The country’s total bituminous and sub-bituminous
imports fell by 11pc on the year and by 17pc on the month
in November, to a 22-month low of 4.7mn t, reflecting
intermittent shutdowns of coal-fired power plants to reduce
air pollution to meet local environmental regulations.
Mailiao Power was forced to shut down a 600MW
coal-fired unit at its seven-unit power plant in Yunlin
County’s Mailiao on the country’s west coast for one
month on 28 October to ensure it did not exceed
its coal-burn quota. The order came from Taiwan’s
economic affairs ministry.
Taiwan’s total January-November bituminous and sub-
bituminous imports were still up by 5.5pc on the year,
at 63.6mn t, despite November’s decline. The 11-month
increase was driven by South African and Russian supplies.
The country’s Russian coal receipts rose by 1.94mn t, or
29pc, on the year, at 8.7mn t, while imports from South
Africa rose by 2.04mn t to 2.86mn t.
But coal receipts could continue to be limited by further
plant closures. The Taichung city government ordered
Taiwan’s largest coal-fired power plant, the 5.5GW Taichung
plant, to cut its coal usage by 24pc from January 2018. The
Taichung plant, operated by state-controlled Taipower, is
one of the largest coal-fired power plants in the world. The
Taichung city government in November ordered the utility to
reduce coal use to 16mn t/yr from a maximum of 21mn t/yr
to reduce air pollution.
ANNOUNCEMENT
Indonesian coal futures to launch on
5 February
A new financial futures contract cash settled against the
ICI 4 Indonesian price index will launch on 5 February on
the CME Nymex exchange.
Market participants can now use ICI 4 futures to
hedge exposure to Indonesian coal prices without
significant basis risk. Previously, long-term contracts
were hedged against thermal coal prices from other
regions or for other qualities.
The ICI 4 index is the benchmark for GAR 4,200
kcal/kg Indonesian coal that is widely used for Asia-
Pacific heating and power generation. The ICI 4 is jointly
produced by Argus and Coalindo Energy.
Argus Coal Daily International Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

spark spreads

Spark spread calculations

Spark spreads for various thermal efficiencies are calculated from Argus outright fuel, CO2 emissions and electricity prices,
and are not assessments based on actual spark-spread trades. Fuel, emissions and electricity prices are taken from the
Argus European Electricity, Argus European Natural Gas, Argus Coal Daily International, Argus European Products and Argus
European Emissions Markets daily reports.
A selection of spark and dark spreads are published in the print report. A full range of spark and dark spreads can be ac-
cessed through Argus Direct. Please contact sales@argusmedia.com to arrange access.

UK ETS and CSP adjusted spark and dark spreads £/MWh UK unadjusted spark spreads £/MWh
NBP 55% ARA Coal 38% NBP 49.13%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load Contract base load peak load

Working day ahead 8.119 11.669 0.353 3.903 Working day ahead 13.290 16.840

February 10.027 14.577 3.337 7.887 February 15.074 19.624

March 8.831 10.981 1.353 3.503 March 13.977 16.127

April 8.566 10.866 -0.069 2.231 April 13.975 16.275

May 7.876 11.026 - - May 13.481 16.631

June 8.080 11.330 - - June 13.891 17.141

July 7.493 11.993 - - July 13.255 17.755

2Q18 8.207 11.057 -2.049 0.801 2Q18 13.816 16.666

3Q18 8.062 11.562 -2.770 0.730 3Q18 13.765 17.265

4Q18 9.404 15.604 3.260 9.460 4Q18 14.577 20.777

1Q19 8.692 14.292 5.511 11.111 1Q19 13.580 19.180

Summer 2018 8.110 11.310 -2.436 0.764 Summer 2018 13.765 16.965

Winter 2018 9.023 14.923 - - Winter 2018 14.053 19.953

Summer 2019 6.449 9.399 - - Summer 2019 12.308 15.258

Winter 2019 7.137 13.437 - - Winter 2019 12.433 18.733

2019 7.561 12.006 -0.097 4.348 2019 13.077 17.522

UK front-month peak-load spark vs dark €/MWh UK front-month base-load spark vs dark £/MWh

Gas 55% Coal 38% Gas 55% Coal 38%

20 14

12

10
15
8
hhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhh

6
10
4

5 0
12 Dec 29 Dec 16 Jan 31 Jan 12 Dec 29 Dec 16 Jan 31 Jan

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 7 of 11

Argus Coal Daily International Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

spark spreads

German ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh German unadjusted dark spreads €/MWh
NCG 55% Gaspool 55% ARA Coal 38% ARA Coal 38%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load base load peak load Contract base load peak load

Working day ahead -2.097 2.153 -1.960 2.290 -1.983 2.267 Working day ahead 6.304 10.554

February 3.817 14.117 4.135 14.435 4.155 14.455 February 12.465 22.765

March -1.151 5.149 -0.878 5.422 -0.956 5.344 March 7.354 13.654

April -1.551 3.899 -1.324 4.126 -1.153 4.297 April 7.157 12.607

May -3.951 0.749 - - - - 2Q18 6.410 11.660

June -0.556 5.194 - - - - 3Q18 7.656 13.606

July -1.333 5.067 - - - - 4Q18 12.826 23.776

2Q18 -1.987 3.263 -1.669 3.581 -1.900 3.350 1Q19 13.567 24.567

3Q18 -0.624 5.326 -0.306 5.644 -0.654 5.296 2Q19 na na

4Q18 1.770 12.720 2.452 13.402 4.501 15.451 2019 10.191 18.791

1Q19 1.272 12.272 1.954 12.954 5.213 16.213 2020 11.366 20.316

2Q19 -2.833 4.867 -2.605 5.095 na na 2021 12.460 22.460

3Q19 -1.564 5.236 -1.428 5.372 - -

2019 -0.527 8.073 -0.163 8.437 1.829 10.429

2020 0.218 9.168 0.536 9.486 2.914 11.864

2021 0.845 10.845 1.072 11.072 3.818 13.818

German day-ahead base-load spreads €/MWh German year-ahead adjusted spark and dark €/MWh

adjusted gas 55% adjusted coal 38% Coal 38% Gas 49.13%
30 4

20
2

10
0
0 hhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhh

-2
-10

-4
-20

-30 -6
12 Dec 29 Dec 16 Jan 31 Jan 8 Nov 5 Dec 4 Jan 31 Jan

German front-month base-load spreads €/MWh German day- vs quarter-ahead base-load darks €/MWh

NCG gas 55% ARA coal 38% Front Quarter adjusted 36% Day ahead adjusted 36%
8 30

7 20
6
10
5
hhhhhhhhhhh 0 hhhhhhhhhhh

4
-10
3

2 -20

1 -30
12 Dec 29 Dec 16 Jan 31 Jan 12 Dec 29 Dec 16 Jan 31 Jan

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 8 of 11

Argus Coal Daily International Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

spark spreads

Dutch ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh Dutch front-month base-load spreads €/MWh
TTF 55% ARA Coal 38%
Coal 38% Gas 49.13%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load 25
Working day ahead 3.608 9.358 3.767 9.517
20
February 7.713 17.263 8.005 17.555

March 3.894 11.244 4.044 11.394

15
April 6.099 9.749 5.997 9.647
hhhhhhhhhhh

2Q18 5.254 11.604 4.750 11.100 10

3Q18 3.767 10.067 3.146 9.446

4Q18 6.820 15.970 9.051 18.201 5

1Q19 4.699 14.249 8.413 17.963

2019 3.623 11.023 5.479 12.879

0
31 Oct 29 Nov 2 Jan 31 Jan
2020 5.009 13.159 7.114 15.264

2021 5.627 12.977 7.918 15.268

Dutch front-month peak-load spreads €/MWh Dutch day-ahead peak-load spark vs dark €/MWh

Coal 38% Gas 49.13% adjusted gas 55% adjusted coal 38%
35 40

30
30

25
hhhhhhhhhhh 20 hhhhhhhhhhh

20

10
15

10 0
31 Oct 29 Nov 2 Jan 31 Jan 12 Dec 17 29 Dec 17 16 Jan 18 31 Jan 18

European front-month base-load dark €/MWh Italian ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh
PSV 55% ARA Coal 38%
Germany Italy
UK Contract base load peak load base load peak load
30
February 14.794 23.094 18.905 27.205
25 March 10.463 15.613 13.794 18.944

April 6.213 8.613 9.747 12.147

20
2Q18 7.117 10.267 10.250 13.400
15
hhhhhhhhhhh

3Q18 13.631 18.781 16.646 21.796

10 4Q18 14.257 23.457 19.851 29.051

1Q19 12.931 22.681 19.463 29.213

5
2019 10.069 17.519 15.379 22.829
0 2020 9.877 16.777 15.164 22.064
12 Dec 29 Dec 16 Jan 31 Jan

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 9 of 11

Argus Coal Daily International Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

spark spreads

French ETS adjusted spark and dark spreads €/MWh

ARA Coal 38% Peg Nord 55% TRS 55%
Contract base load peak load base load peak load base load peak load

Working day ahead 3.517 10.517 3.403 10.403 3.313 10.313

February 13.005 23.855 12.213 23.063 11.667 22.517

March 3.994 12.444 3.526 11.976 - -

April 1.747 9.797 1.485 9.535 - -

2Q18 -1.450 5.750 -1.265 5.935 -2.356 4.844

3Q18 -0.254 6.896 0.049 7.199 - -

4Q18 14.201 26.601 11.107 23.507 - -

1Q19 16.913 30.513 - - - -

2019 6.879 17.879 4.523 15.523 - -

2020 8.064 20.114 - - - -

2021 9.418 22.368 - - - -

French front-month base-load spreads €/MWh French front-month peak-load spreads €/MWh

Coal 38% Gas 49.13% Coal 38% Gas 49.13%

40 70

35 60
30
50
25
hhhhhhhhhhh 40 hhhhhhhhhhh

20
30
15

10 20

5 10
31 Oct 29 Nov 2 Jan 31 Jan 31 Oct 29 Nov 2 Jan 31 Jan

French calendar-year base-load dark €/MWh French calendar-year peak-load dark €/MWh

ETS adjusted ARA coal 38% unadjusted ARA coal 38% ETS adjusted ARA coal 38% unadjusted ARA coal 38%
17 30
16
28
15
14 26
13
12 24
hhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhh

11 22
10
9 20
8
18
7
6 16
12 Dec 29 Dec 16 Jan 31 Jan 12 Dec 29 Dec 16 Jan 31 Jan

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 10 of 11

Argus Coal Daily International Issue 18-22  |  Wednesday 31 January 2018

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