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CE4106S

Population
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
(OPEN ELECTIVE)

Course Instructor : Dr. Vikas B. Varekar

Civil and Environmental Engineering Department,
Veermata Jijabai Technological Institute

Population Factors affecting on population growth

• Worlds Population
• 7.5 billion as of July 2017
Biotic factors
food, disease, competitors, and predators

Population Growth ….???? Abiotic factors

rainfall, floods, and temperature

Population Growth Forecasting of Population

Factors affecting changes in population are: 1) Arithmetical Increase Method
• increase due to births 2) Geometrical Increase Method
• decrease due to deaths 3) Incremental Increase Method

• increase/ decrease due to migration 4) Simple Graphical Method

5) Graphical Comparison Method
6) Master Plan Method
7) Logistic Curve Method
8) Apportionment Method

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ARITHMETICAL INCREASE METHOD

Arithmetical Increase Method
• It is assumed that the population is increasing at
constant rate, i.e.
dP/dt = C
• Therefore, Population after nth decade will be
Pn= P + n.C
where, Pn is the population after ‘n’ decades
and ‘P’ is present population, C is the average
increment for the decades
• Suitable for large and old city with considerable
development.
• If it is used for small, average or comparatively
new cities, it will give lower population estimate
than actual value.

Solution Solution
• Calculate average increment for the decades
• Estimate the population for the given year

Solution Solution

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Problem GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD

• The population data for a town is given below. Find out
the population in the year 2051, and 2061 by arithmetical
increase method
• In this method the per decade percentage increase or
percentage growth rate is assumed to be constant
• The increase is compounded over the existing population
every dacade, this method also known as uniform
increase method.
• The geometric mean is defined as the nth root of
the product of n numbers
• should be applied for a new industrial town at the
beginning of development for only few decades

GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD

• The population at the end of nth decade ‘Pn’ can be • Problem
estimated as:
Pn = P (1+ IG/100)n
Where, IG = geometric mean of percentage increase
P = Present population
N = no. of decades.

• IG = (r1 X r2 X r3 X….X rm)1/m

• r growth rate in percentage

Solution Solution

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Solution Solution
• Calculate geometric mean
• Estimation of population

Solution Solution

Problem Incremental Increase Method

• The population data for a town is given below. Find out
the population in the year 2021, 2031and 2041 by
geometrical increase method
• In this method per decade growth rate is not assumed to
be constant as in arithmetic / geometric mean method
• But is progressively increasing or decreasing depending
upon weather the average of the incremental increase in
the past data is positive or negative
• Suitable for an average size town under normal condition
where the growth rate is found to be in increasing order.

327,500; 429,025; 562,023

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Incremental Increase Method Incremental Increase Method

• Population after nth decade is can be estimated as,
Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y
where, Pn = Population after nth decade
X = Average increase
Y = Incremental increase

Solution Incremental Increase Method

• Increase in population
• Incremental increase in population
• Estimate population for nth decade

Incremental Increase Method Incremental Increase Method

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Incremental Increase Method
SIMPLE GRAPHICAL METHOD
MASTER PLAN METHOD
• The big and metropolitan cities are generally not
developed in haphazard manner, but are planned and
regulated by local bodies according to master plan.
• The master plan is prepared for next 25 to 30 years for
the city. According to the master plan the city is divided
into various zones such as residence, commerce and
industry.
• The population densities are fixed for various zones in the
master plan.
• From this population density total water demand and
wastewater generation for that zone can be worked out.
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SIMPLE GRAPHICAL METHOD
• In this method, the populations of last few decades are
correctly plotted to a suitable scale on graph.
• The population curve is smoothly extended for getting
future population.
• This extension should be done carefully and it requires
proper experience and judgment.
Population Forecasting
• First four methods based on the assumption that,
• Factors and conditions which are responsible for
population increase in the past will continue in future also.
• But the assumption may or may not be satisfied
• City may suddenly impose immigration restrictions
• Compulsory family planning for eligible couples
• Develop enhanced medical facilities thereby reducing
death rates
LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD
• This method is used when the growth rate of population
due to births, deaths and migrations takes place under
normal situation and it is not subjected to any
extraordinary changes like epidemic, war, earth quake or
any natural disaster, etc.
• If the population of a city is plotted with respect to time,
the curve so obtained under normal condition looks like S-
shaped curve and is known as logistic curve.
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LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD

• the curve shows an early growth JK at an increasing rate
i.e. geometric growth or log growth,
dP/dt ∝ P
• The transitional middle curve KM follows arithmetic
increase i.e.
dP/dt=C
• For later growth MN the rate of change of population is
proportional to difference between saturation population
and existing population, i.e.
dP/dt ∝ (Ps - P)

LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD

LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD
• A mathematical solution for this logistic curve JN,
which can be represented by an autocatalytic first P = Population at any time t from the origin J
order equation, is given by Ps= Saturation population
P0= Population of the city at the start point J
m & n = Constants
t = Time in years
where,

Problem

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Problem
• In three consecutive decades the population of a town is
40,000; 100,000 and 130,000. Determine: (a) Saturation
population; (b) Equation for logistic curve; (c) Expected
population in next decade.
Solution
Q.3. (a) Saturation population: 137,500
(b) Equation for logistic curve: m = 2.437; n = -0.187;

(c) Expected population in next decade: 136,283population

in next decade.