Observed

Climate Trends
and projected

Climate Change
in the Philippines

Presented by:
Thelma A. Cinco
Assistant Weather Services Chief

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

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Outline
• Observed Trends: Global and the Philippines

• Climate Projections: SRES– and RCP– based

climate projections

• Using the Climate Risk Analysis Matrix

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Distinguishing the difference

Weather
• Is a specific meteorological
event or condition that
happens over a period of
hours or a few days.
Climate
• The average weather
conditions over a long
period of time (typically 30
years).

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Weather and climate information being provided by PAGASA

Past Present Future

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The SW and NE monsoons in the Philippines
June-July-August October-November-December

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What is Climate variability?
Climate variability refers to shorter term
fluctuations in climate such as those caused by
the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Phenomenon.

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El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO)
El Niño La Niña

Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov

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El Niño affects several regions across the globe

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Some of the
Impacts of El
Niño in the
Philippines

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Some of the Impacts of La Niña in
the Philippines

ST. BERNARD
LANDSLIDE
Feb 2006

Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

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 Climate Change?
Is that really happening?

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Global warming: Indicative of climate change
Is Global Temperature Rising?

0.85°C
1880-2012
(IPCC AR5)

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Global warming: Indicative of climate change
Is Global Temperature Rising?
Earth’s Long Term (1880-2016) Warming Trend (5-year average)

Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

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2016 global mean temperature is a record high

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August 2017 is the second highest

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Latest from WMO

DOST-PAGASA Payong
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 What are the Observed
Climate Trends in the
Philippines ?

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Observed climate trends in the Philippines:
Over the past 65 years (1951-2015),
a 0.68˚C increase in annual mean
temperature has been observed

0.99˚ C annual minimum 0.24˚C annual maximum

temperature increase temperature increase

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Wetting/drying tendency of annual total
rainfall in the Philippines (1951-2010)
• Parts of central and
northern Luzon

• Parts of eastern Visayas

• Northeastern and
southwestern sections
Mindanao

• Northern sections of Luzon

• Parts of western Visayas

• Central and western

sections Mindanao

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 Increasing and decreasing trends in
seasonal rainfall (1951-2010)
Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov

Source: IAAS, 2016

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Increasing number of hot days and
decreasing cold nights
Hot days Cold Nights

Source: Cinco et al. 2014

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 Increasing frequency of
extreme rainfall events (1951–2010)
Intensity Frequency

Source: Cinco et al. 2015

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Slightly decreasing in number of Tropical
Cyclones TCs

Source: Cinco et al., 2016

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Slightly increasing number of intense TCs
(maximum sustained winds >170kph)

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Frequency of Tropical Cyclones which crossed the Metro
Manila for the period 1948 to 2016

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 Will those changes
continue in the future?

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Understanding the difference

Weather forecast Climate projection

• The state of the atmosphere • A likelihood of something to
(or the weather situation) at happen in climate several
a particular location over a decades or centuries in the
short period of time future

• Highly dependent on the • Conditional climate

initial state of the expectations based on
atmosphere and the upper scenarios (e.g., increase in
ocean green house gases)

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 Understanding how

Climate
Projections
are made

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 Different scenarios
SRES - Special Report on
SCENARIO
Emissions Scenarios
Socio-economic driven scenarios
DESCRIPTION
• Demography
• Economic development
• Regionalization
• Energy production/use
BASES
• Technology
• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Land use
A1, A2, B1, B2 families
NAMES
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RCP – Representative
Concentration Pathways
Emission-driven scenarios
Describes a wide range of potential futures for
the main drivers of climate change –
greenhouse gases, air pollutant emissions &
land use
RADIATIVE FORCING
RCP scenarios are new scenarios that specify
concentrations and corresponding emissions,
(No fixed sets of assumptions related to
population growth, economic development, or
technology associated with any RCP)
RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 (Wm-2)
Payong
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 Rising radiative
SRES vs RCP

RCP 8.5
forcing pathway
leading to 8.5 W/m²
Comparison of CO2 concentrations from in 2100.
SRES (A1B, A1FI, A2, B1) and
Stabilization without
RCP (RCP 3, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 8.5) overshoot pathway

RCP 6
to 6 W/m² at
stabilization after
2100

Stabilization without
overshoot pathway

RCP 4.5
to 4.5 W/m² at
stabilization after
2100

Peak in radiative

RCP 2.6
forcing at ~ 3 W/m²
before 2100 and
decline

PAGASA Source: IPCCPayong

AR5 WG1
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Projected Annual Mean Temperature Change*
SUMMARY of CHANGES
Scenario Mid-21st century End of the 21st century
A1B +1.4 to +2.0 +2.7 to +3.8
RCP4.5 +0.9 to +1.9 +1.3 to +2.5
RCP8.5 +1.2 to +2.3 +2.5 to +4.1
1.2°C
1.6°C
0.9°C – 2.3°C
1.4°C (2036-2065)
2.0°C (2036-2065)
1.9°C (2030-2059)
12
7 model
MDGF
SEACAM
model simulations
Report
simulations*
Report
– SRES A1B

*relative to 1971 to 2000

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Possible risks associated with warmer
temperature

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Projected changes in seasonal total rainfall by the Mid-21st
Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario
Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov

Wettest
Possible

Median

Driest
Possible

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Possible risk associated with
increased/enhanced rainfall in the future

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Possible risk associated with drier
condition in the future

Source: http://opinion.inquirer.net

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 Projected future change in tropical
cyclones to affect the Philippines

Source: Daron et al. 2016, DFID project, UK- Met-office report

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Some of the Impacts of strong tropical cyclones

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 So, what can we do now to
make our families, communities,
businesses, and our whole
locality resilient to
climate variability and change?

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 Link of DRR and CCA
Climate Change Disaster Risk
Adaptation: Management

Reduce risk to: Reduce risk to:

Gradual changes in Extreme weather Climate and Geophysi Ecological
climatic parameters event with weather cal Events
increased frequency related Events
and severity events

Other events
Changes in Changes in Direct connection (e.g.
Sea Level mean Precipitation technological,
Rise Temperature patterns terrestrial
Hazards that are
associated with
extreme events

Hazards that are

associated with
changing climate
“Normals”
CCA and DRR: point of conceptual convergence (Source: Gotangco 2012)

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PAGASA Payong
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Climate Change Impacts

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Projected changes in seasonal rainfall over Eastern Samar by the
Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario
Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov

Wettest
Possible

Median

Driest
Possible

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How to Utilize the Climate Risk Analysis Matrix
CLIRAM

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Climate Risk Analysis Matrix CLIRAM

Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Eastern Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Projected Seasonal
Information about patterns of
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount Rainfall Amount Potential Impacts Adaptation Option
Percent (%)
(mm) (mm) Change

Moderate Lower Bound -4.2 -41.1 945.9

December-January- Emission Median 1.3 12.5 999.5
February (DJF) (RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 45.0 444.4 1431.4
Observed baseline = High Emission Lower Bound -7.9 -77.8 909.2
987 mm (RCP8.5) Median 13.7 135.2 1122.2
Upper Bound 43.6 430.8 1417.8
Moderate Lower Bound -2.6 -12.1 452.0
March-April-May Emission Median 1.8 8.2 472.3
(MAM) (RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 17.4 80.8 544.9
Observed baseline = High Emission Lower Bound 5.8 26.8 490.9
464 mm (RCP8.5) Median 1.1 5.3 469.4
Upper Bound 13.0 60.3 524.4
Moderate Lower Bound -6.7 -37.5 522.3
June-July-August Emission Median -1.1 -6.0 553.8
(JJA) (RCP4.5)
Upper Bound 8.3 46.4 606.2
Observed baseline = High Emission Lower Bound -14.0 -78.3 481.5
560 mm (RCP8.5) Median -0.6 -3.2 556.6
Upper Bound 9.7 54.6 614.4
Moderate Lower Bound -20.1 -174.9 696.5
September-October- Emission Median -16.6 -144.7 726.7
November (SON) (RCP4.5)
Upper Bound -3.8 -33.4 838.0
Observed baseline = High Emission Lower Bound -22.0 -191.3 680.1
871 mm (RCP8.5) Median -9.3 -81.3 790.1
Upper Bound 4.7 40.7 912.1
* upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile

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In accomplishing the CLIRAM for seasonal values
determine the projected patterns of change
(Column 7 of Table 1) based on the following
(refer to Columns 4 to 6):

1. The lower bound that indicates the lowest

possible change;
2. The upper bound that indicates the highest
possible change; and
3. The median which represents multi model
central estimate the future change.

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 Example of a filled-up CLIRAM for Agriculture sectors in Salcedo
Example(of(the(filled(up(CLIRAM(for(different(sectors(in(Salcedo
(
CLIRAM:(Projected(Changes(in(Seasonal(Rainfall(in(the(Mid=21st(Century((2036=2065)(for(Eastern(Samar(relative(to(1971=2000(((((((((((
Agriculture
Projected'Change Projected' Information'about'patterns'of'change
Potential'
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall'amount' Seasonal' Adaptation'Option
Percent'(%) Impacts
(mm) Rainfall'Amount'
Col'1 Col'2 Col'3 Col'4 Col'5 (mm)
Col'6 Col'7 Col'8 Col'9
Lower(Bound =4.2 =41.1 945.9 Minimal(to(no(change •Extend(cover/greenhouse(style(of(planted(cro
Same(vulenrability(to((the(present
Median 1.3 12.5 999.5 Minimal(to(no(change •Plant(water(resistant(varieties,(raise(beds,(tra
●(Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.(
The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change(during(the( planting(sites
wash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months( •Provide(good(farm(drainage,(by(construction(
Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or(Amihan(shows(an(increase(
Moderate( growing(period)
Emission( of(45%(.(This(increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some( irrigation(canals(to(divert(excess(surface(run=of
●(Pest(&(Disease(Infestation
•(Practice(cut&carry,(provide(permanent(shelt
(RCP(4.5) Upper(Bound 45.0 444.4 1431.4 sectors(of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresponds(
●(Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&(
to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( crops livestock
December=
January=February( ●(Decrease(in(yield(/production •(Use(flood(tolerant(/(water(resistant(
(DJF)((((((( varieties/drought(tolerant(varieties
(((((((((((((((((((( •(Conduct(Climate(Field(School(to(make(farme
Lower(Bound =7.9 =77.8 909.2 Minimal(to(no(change
Observed( Same(vulenrability(to((the(present more(resilient(to(climate(adversities
baseline(=((987( Median 13.7 135.2 1122.2 Minimal(increase •(Provide(EWS(for(agriculture
mm ●(Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.(•(Provide(insurance(to(farmers
wash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months(
The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change(during(the(
High(Emission( growing(period)
Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or(Amihan(shows(an(increase(
(RCP(8.5) ●(Pest(&(Disease(Infestation
Upper(Bound 43.6 430.8 1417.8 of(44%.(This(increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some(
●(Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&(
sectors(of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresponds(
to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( crops
●(Decrease(in(yield(/production

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Example(of(the(filled(up(CLIRAM(for(different(sectors(in(Salcedo
(
CLIRAM:(Projected(Changes(in(Seasonal(Rainfall(in(the(Mid=21st(Century((2036=2065)(for(Eastern(Samar(relative(to(1971=2000(((((((((((
Agriculture
Projected'Change Projected' Information'about'patterns'of'change
Potential'
Season Scenario Range* Rainfall'amount' Seasonal' Adaptation'Option
Percent'(%) Impacts
(mm) Rainfall'Amount'
Col'1 Col'2 Col'3 Col'4 Col'5 (mm)
Col'6 Col'7 Col'8 Col'9
Lower(Bound =4.2 =41.1 945.9 Minimal(to(no(change
Same(vulenrability(to((the(present
Median 1.3 12.5 999.5 Minimal(to(no(change
●(Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.(
The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change( •Extend(cover/greenhouse(style(
Moderate( during(the(Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or( wash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months( of(planted(crops
growing(period)
Emission( Amihan(shows(an(increase(of(45%(.(This( •Plant(water(resistant(varieties,(
●(Pest(&(Disease(Infestation
(RCP(4.5) Upper(Bound 45.0 444.4 1431.4 increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some(sectors(
●(Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&( raise(beds,(transfer(planting(sites
December= of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresponds(
crops •Provide(good(farm(drainage,(by(
January=February( to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( ●(Decrease(in(yield(/production construction(of(irrigation(canals(t
(DJF)((((((( divert(excess(surface(run=off
(((((((((((((((((((( •(Practice(cut&carry,(provide(
Observed( Lower(Bound =7.9 =77.8 909.2 Minimal(to(no(change
Same(vulenrability(to((the(present permanent(shelter(to(livestock
baseline(=((987( Median 13.7 135.2 1122.2 Minimal(increase •(Use(flood(tolerant(/(water(
mm ●(Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.(resistant(varieties/drought(
The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change(
wash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months(
High(Emission( tolerant(varieties
during(the(Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or( growing(period)
(RCP(8.5) •(Conduct(Climate(Field(School(to
Amihan(shows(an(increase(of(44%.(This( ●(Pest(&(Disease(Infestation
Upper(Bound 43.6 430.8 1417.8 make(farmers(more(resilient(to(
increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some(sectors(
●(Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&( climate(adversities
of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresponds(
crops •(Provide(EWS(for(agriculture
to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( ●(Decrease(in(yield(/production
•(Provide(insurance(to(farmers
Moderate( Lower(Bound =2.6 =12.1 452.0 Minimal(to(no(change
March=April=May( Emission( Median 1.8 8.2 472.3 Minimal(to(no(change
(MAM)(((((((((((( (RCP(4.5)
Upper(Bound 17.4 80.8 544.9 Minimal(increase
(((((((((((((((((((((((((Ob
served(baseline(=((High(Emission( Lower(Bound 5.8 26.8 490.9 Minimal(to(no(change
464(mm Median 1.1 5.3 469.4 Minimal(to(no(change
(RCP(8.5)
Upper(Bound 13.0 60.3 524.4 Minimal(increase
June=July=August( Moderate( Lower(Bound =6.7 =37.5 522.3 Minimal(to(no(change
Emission(
(JJA)(((((((((((((((((((((((( Median =1.1 =6.0 553.8 Minimal(to(no(change
(RCP(4.5) Upper(Bound 8.3 46.4 606.2 Minimal(to(no(change
Observed( Lower(Bound =14.0 =78.3 481.5 Minimal(reduction
baseline(=((560( High(Emission( Median =0.6 =3.2 556.6 Minimal(to(no(change
mm (RCP(8.5)
Upper(Bound 9.7 54.6 614.4 Minimal(increase
The(driest(possible(future(rainfall(change(Water(is((sufficient(for(farming(activity
during(the(transition(period(from(NE(to(SW(
Moderate( Lower(Bound =20.1 =174.9 696.5 monsoon(shows(a(reduction(of(20%
September= Emission( The(most(likely(future(rainfall(change(during(
October= (RCP(4.5) the(transition(period(from(NE(to(SW(monsoon(
November((SON)(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((
Median =16.6 =144.7 726.7 shows(a(reduction(of(17%
Upper(Bound =3.8 =33.4 838.0 Minimal(to(no(change
Observed(
baseline(=((871( The(driest(possible(future(rainfall(change(
mm Lower(Bound =22.0 =191.3 680.1 during(the(transition(period(from(NE(to(SW(
High(Emission(
monsoon(shows(a(reduction(of(22%
(RCP(8.5)

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Upper(Bound
Median =9.3
4.7
=81.3
40.7
790.1
912.1
Minimal(to(no(change
Minimal(to(no(change
Payong
*(upper:(90th(percentile;(median:(50th(percentile;(lower:(10th(percentile
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Example(of(the(filled(up(CLIRAM(for(Agriculture(in(Salcedo

CLIRAM:Projected(Changes(in(Seasonal(Temperature(in(the(Mid\21st((Century((2036\2065)(for(Eastern(Samar(relative(to(1971\2000(((((((((((
Agriculture
Projected'Change Information'about'
Potential'
Season Scenario Range* Projected'Seasonal' patterns'of'change Adaptation'Option
Change'in' Impacts
Mean'Temperature'
Col'1 Col'2 Col'3 Col'4 ( )'
Col'5 Col'6 Col'7 Col'8
Lower(Bound 1.0 27.1 Coldest(season Generally((all(seasons(becoming(( (•(Conduct(Climate(Field(School(to(
Moderate(Emission(
December\January\ Median 1.1 27.2 27.1(to(27.7 warmer(,(in(which(Air(surface,(soil( make(farmers(more(resilient(to(
February((DJF)((((((( (RCP4.5)
Upper(Bound 1.6 27.7 and(groundwater(temperatures(will( climate(adversities
((((((((((((((((((((
Lower(Bound 1.3 27.4 be(warmer.(The(general(climate( •(Provide(EWS(for(agriculture
Observed(baseline(=(( High(Emission(
26.1( Median 1.5 27.6 27.4(to(28.0 effects(of(having(warmer(oceans(or( •(Provide(insurance(to(farmers
(RCP8.5) lakes(are(included(here. •(Translating(the(temperature(
Upper(Bound 1.9 28.0
(Increase(in(temperature((ranging( changes(to(impacts(to(different(
Lower(Bound 1.0 28.7
Moderate(Emission( from(1.0(to(2.2(degrees crops
Median 1.2 28.9 28.7(to(29.4
March\April\May((MAM)(((((((((((( (RCP4.5) (•(Impotent(livestock/crops
Upper(Bound 1.7 29.4
(((((((((((((((((((((((((Observe (•(Livestock(disease
d(baseline(=((27.7( Lower(Bound 1.4 29.1
High(Emission( (•(Decrease(in(yield(/production(
Median 1.6 29.3 29.1(to(29.8
(RCP8.5) (•(Ice(Ice(effect
Upper(Bound 2.1 29.8
(•(Fish(Kill
Lower(Bound 1.0 29.3
Moderate(Emission(
June\July\August((JJA)(((((((((((((((((((((((( Median 1.2 29.5 29.3(to(30.1
(RCP4.5)
Upper(Bound 1.8 30.1
Observed(baseline(=(( Lower(Bound 1.4 29.7 Hottest(season
28.3( High(Emission(
Median 1.7 30.0 29.7(to(30.5
(RCP8.5)
Upper(Bound 2.2 30.5
Lower(Bound 1.0 28.7
September\October\
Moderate(Emission(
Median 1.2 28.9 28.7(to(29.5
(RCP4.5)
November((SON)(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((
Upper(Bound 1.8 29.5
Observed(baseline(=(( Lower(Bound 1.4 29.1
High(Emission(
27.7( Median 1.5 29.2 29.1(to(29.9
(RCP8.5)
Upper(Bound 2.2 29.9
*(upper:(90th(percentile;(median:(50th(percentile;(lower:(10th(percentile

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 DAVAO" REGION
May"Rainfall"vs"Mangostin
800
y"=" $0.7347x"+"435.03
600

400

200

0
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

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 COMPONENTS

Component A: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Component B: GHG Inventory and Review of Current

Mitigation Actions

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 Key questions and elements for Component A in Step
3 3
Step LCCAP
Component A: Key Questions:
Climate Change
1. Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Opportunities of climate change in
Vulnerability
communities
and Risk
Assessment 2. Types of climate-related and natural hazards
3. Issues that need to be addressed,
4. Location of climate change issues and hazards- current and are
projected to happen (illustration/mapping)

5. Summary description on type of climate related hazards and issues

will the LGU face in the future?
6. Analysis report on why and when should action be initiated

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Activity
Objectives:
• To be able to interpret the projected climate changes in the area assigned to
you
• To identify the potential impacts of projected changes and provide possible
adaptation options using the CLIRAM for seasonal rainfall and mean
temperature
Ø Determine the projected patterns of change in seasonal rainfall. Provide your
inputs in Column 7 by referring to the information provided in Columns 4 to 6
of the CLIRAM:
• The lower bound indicates the driest possible change;
• The upper bound indicates the wettest possible change; and
• The median represents the multimodel central estimate of future change
Ø Identify the sectors affected by the changes, potential impacts of projected
changes and adaptation options

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Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century
(2036-2065) for Metro Manila relative to 1971-2000

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Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century
(2036-2065) for Metro Manila relative to 1971-2000

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Pampanga

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Albay

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Leyte

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Misamis Oriental

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Davao del Norte

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 Acknowledgements

Thelma A. Cinco, Emma D. Ares, Marcelino Q.

Villafuerte II, John A. Manalo, Wilmer Agustin,
Kimberli Anne Aquino

Joseph Daron, Richard Jones, Ian Macadam,

Florian Gallo, Ron Kahana, Claire Scannell,
David Hein, Simon Tucker, Rosanna Amato, and
David Corbelli;

Jack Katzfey and Dewi Kirono.

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 Thank you! J
Contact us:
Impact Assessment and Application Section
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, DOST-PAGASA
+632-434-58-82/434-8130

Thelma A. Cinco
email: telacebes@yahoo.com

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH
@dost_pagasa

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