Probabilistic fatigue load spectra for riveted railway bridges

B. M. Imam, T. D. Righiniotis & M. K. Chryssanthopoulos

School of Engineering, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, UK

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a probabilistic load model for fatigue assessment of old metallic railway
bridges. The traffic basis of the model consists of trains obtained from past records and present-day trains ob-
tained from codes. The traffic is divided into four distinct time periods each associated with particular charac-
teristics in rail traffic. Traffic evolution scenarios for the future, in terms of increase in train axle loads or train
frequencies, are also considered. With the help of a finite element model of a short-span, riveted railway
bridge, train loading is converted into probabilistic fatigue load spectra via Monte Carlo train simulations.
The spectra are found to be described well by Weibull distributions. As an example, the application of the
proposed load model for the estimation of the remaining fatigue life of a riveted bridge connection is present-
ed. Uncertainties in terms of loading, resistance and modelling are taken into account. The results show that
introduction of higher train axle weights in the future is expected to reduce the remaining life of the connec-
tion considerably faster than the accommodation of increased freight through higher train frequencies.

1 INTRODUCTION response and modelling and in the fatigue phenome-

A large proportion of the existing railway bridge in-
frastructure in Europe and North America is already
exceeding 100 years of age. These metallic bridges,
the majority of which are of riveted construction,
were not explicitly designed for fatigue since most
of the fatigue design codes were introduced after the
1970s. Considering their large number, replacement
of these structures will be extremely difficult from
an economic point of view and is likely to create se-
vere network problems. In terms of maintaining the-
se old bridges and planning any future repair actions,
the assessment of their remaining fatigue life is a vi-
tal requirement.
A key aspect in determining the remaining fatigue
life of these bridges is the estimation of the fraction
of the fatigue life that has already been expended.
Past fatigue damage can be quantified through the
development of live load models for past and present
rail traffic taking into account the conditions that
prevailed on the railway network over the last centu-
ry. In order to obtain remaining fatigue life esti-
mates, prediction of live load evolution over the next
few decades is also desirable.
The use of probabilistic methods for the devel-
opment of past, present and future live load models
as well as the estimation of the remaining fatigue life
of old metallic railway bridges is highly desirable,
bearing in mind the inherent uncertainties in loading,
non itself. The objective of this paper is to present a
probabilistic load model for fatigue assessment, rep-
resenting train loading in the UK for the period from
about 1900 until the present day. Future load evolu-
tion is also considered in terms of an increase in
train frequencies or a combination of higher train ax-
le loads and higher frequencies. The load model is
divided into distinct periods associated with changes
in rail traffic characteristics over the years. A finite
element (FE) model of a short-span railway bridge,
which is typically found in the UK, is used in order
to convert train loading into fatigue load effects.
Stress range histograms are developed through train
simulations for each period of the traffic model for a
fatigue-critical stringer-to-cross-girder connection,
which was identified in previous studies by the au-
thors (Imam et al. 2005). Weibull distributions are
also fitted to the histograms. Finally, as an example,
the application of the proposed load spectra to the
estimation of the remaining fatigue life of the critical
connection of the 10 m span railway bridge is pre-
sented. A probabilistic methodology in terms of
Monte Carlo simulation is developed for that pur-
pose. On the loading side, dynamic amplification of
the statically calculated stresses and the annual train
frequencies, and on the resistance side, the S-N
curve pertaining to the connection detail and the
cumulative damage model (Miner’s sum) are treated
as random. Model uncertainty is represented by a ra-
tio of actual to calculated stresses.
2 BRIDGE TRAFFIC
2.1 Past traffic
The type and frequency of past rail loading is com-
pletely different from the loading being experienced
today by railway bridges. For example, in the past,
the heaviest part of the train was the locomotive
which was usually followed by a number of lighter
wagons. Today, the wagons following the locomo-
tive constitute the heaviest train loading on a bridge.
Axle loads ranging from 20 t to 25 t are not uncom-
mon in current freight trains and plans are already in
place to increase the allowable axle loads to 30 t and
even 35 t in some countries in the near future (James
& Karoumi 2006). Rail traffic volume has also been
continuously increasing over recent years and is ex-
pected to increase at even higher rates in the future
in order to meet future consumer demands.
In order to quantify the amount of fatigue damage
that has accumulated in the connection due to past
rail traffic, a historical traffic model was developed
based on information provided by the UK railway
infrastructure owners. This model, which is shown
in Table 1, is used to represent rail traffic in the pe-
riod from 1900 until the present day and is divided
into four distinct periods (1900-1920, 1920-1940,
1940-1970 and 1970-2005), each associated with
particular characteristics in rail traffic, and the use of
rail to transport freight and passengers. The annual
train frequencies fti for the three periods from 1900
until 1970 were estimated by dividing the rail traffic
in each period into freight and passenger, the latter
being further sub-divided into intercity and local
suburban. On the other hand, the traffic model
adopted for the period 1970-2005 is the BS5400
(1980) medium traffic model. Axle weights and
spacings of locomotives and wagons proposed for
the period 1900-1970 were obtained from historical
records and are shown in Table 2. For the period
1970-2005, these can be found in BS5400 (1980).
A typical freight train in the periods between
1900-1940 is assumed to consist of a freight loco-
motive followed by two-axle wagons. Thirty and
forty, 8-ton axle wagons are assumed to follow the
locomotive, for the periods 1900-1920 and 1920-
1940, respectively. A heavier freight train, both in
terms of locomotive and wagon axles, is assumed for
the period 1940-1970. Three different freight trains,
which are considerably heavier than those of the
previous periods, are suggested, according to
BS5400, to represent freight traffic in the last period.
These trains are denoted as No 1, 7, 8 in the code.
A typical passenger train for the period 1900-
1920 is assumed to consist of a passenger locomo-
tive followed by eight four-axle passenger wagons
with 8-ton axles. For the subsequent periods, a dif-
ferent locomotive followed by a higher number of
heavier passenger wagons is assumed. For the last
period (1970-2005), BS5400 suggests the use of a
similar passenger train (No 5) having slightly in-
creased axle weights compared to the previous peri-
od.

Table 1. Traffic model for the period 1900-2005 (F: freight, P: passenger, LS: local suburban)
Traffic Axle No of Total train Annual
Period Locomotive type Wagon type
type weight wagons weight (t) frequency fti
0-6-0 Superheater
1900-1920 F 2×8 t 30 570 10500
Freight Engine
P 4-4-0 Passenger Engine 4×8 t 8 351 11250
LS 0-4-4 Tank Engine 4×8 t 4 186 11250
0-6-0 Superheater
1920-1940 F 2×10 t 40 890 10500
Freight Engine
4-6-0 Superheated Mixed
P 4×9 t 12 558 18000
Traffic Engine
LS 0-4-4 Tank Engine 4×8 t 4 186 4500
2-8-0 Freight
1940-1970 F 2×10 t 40 926 10500
Engine
4-6-0 Superheated Mixed
P 4×9 t 15 665 18000
Traffic Engine
LS 0-4-4 Tank Engine 4×8 t 6 250 4500
1970-2005 F Steel Train (No 1) 6×18.5 t 15 1794 2257
Diesel Hauled Passenger
P 4×10 t 12 600 22500
Train (No 5)
Heavy Freight Train
F 4×25 t 10 1120 2411
(No 7)
Heavy Freight Train
F 2×25 t 20 1120 6027
(No 8)
Table 2. Axle spacings and weights for the historical traffic have higher axle loads than the trains of the traffic
model trains (period 1900-1970). model presented here (Table 1). However, the
Locomotive number of wagons following the locomotives are
Axle spacings (m) and weights (t)
/wagon type
0-6-0 lower in the UIC model than the numbers assumed
17.2 18 13.6 14 13.5 13.7 in the present model. The annual freight train fre-
Superheater
Freight Engine 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 quencies between the two models are quite similar
being slightly higher in the UIC model. On the
19.1 17.8 17.2 14 13.5 13.7 other hand, the passenger train frequencies are
4-4-0 Passenger
Engine
higher in the present model.
3.2 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.0

16.1 17.4 24.6 2.2 Future traffic

0-4-4 Tank
2.4 3.7 2.0
Engine In order to obtain reasonable remaining fatigue life
4-6-0 estimates, future traffic and hence load evolution
17.9 18.1 18.2 18 18.2 17.5 17.9
Superheated
Mixed Traffic in the next few decades has to be considered. Here,
2.7 2.1 2.4 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.0
Engine this evolution is assumed to start from year 2005.
9 15.5 15.6 16 16 18.3 17.5 17.9 Statistics presented by the UK railway infrastruc-
2-8-0 Freight ture owners have shown that the level of freight
Engine 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 3.6 2.3 2.3 2.0 traffic on the UK rail network has increased by
more than 20% in the last 5 years and this growing
8 or 10 8 or 10
Freight wagon trend is expected to continue. It is predicted that
2.0 3.0 2.0 there will be a 30% increase in the amount of rail
Passenger 8 or 9 8 or 9 freight over the next 10 years. This increase can be
/suburban converted to an increase in the annual train fre-
2.0 1.8 13.0 1.8 2.0
wagon quencies of the load model by using the annual
traffic tonnages suggested by BS5400 (1980) for
the derivation of load spectra. The make-up of the
Suburban traffic for the period 1900-1970 is as- total annual tonnages of the BS5400 medium traf-
sumed to be represented by a locomotive followed fic trains, which as mentioned previously represent
by four-axle passenger wagons with an axle weight present rail traffic, is shown in Table 3 together
of 8 tons. For the period 1970-2005, no local sub- with the total weights of each train and their corre-
urban traffic is considered in the BS5400 medium sponding annual frequencies. As can be seen, 50%
traffic model. of the annual tonnage is assigned to passenger
The annual train frequencies of the historical trains (No 5) and the remaining 50% to freight
traffic model are based on the annual frequencies trains (No 1, 7 and 8).
given in BS5400 (1980) for medium traffic. For Two scenarios are considered with the aim of
the period 1900-1970, the annual frequency of the meeting the 30% target increase in the amount of
freight trains in each period is assumed equal to the freight by 2015, as shown in Figure 1. The first
sum of the annual frequencies of the BS5400 me- scenario involves solely increases in the annual
dium traffic freight trains (No 1, 7 and 8). Fur- train frequencies, without taking into account any
thermore, the combined annual frequency of the increase in the train weights. Accordingly, a 30%
passenger and local suburban trains for each period increase in the total annual tonnage of the freight
is assumed equal to the annual frequency of the trains is approximately equal to a 3% average in-
BS5400 passenger train (No 5). For the first period crease in the annual frequencies of trains 7 and 8
of the load model (1900-1920), 50% of this com- and a 2% average increase for train 1 each year for
bined frequency is assigned to passenger trains and the next 10 years. The second scenario is assumed
the remaining 50% to local suburban trains. For the to be identical to the first scenario up to year 2010,
following two periods, these percentages are modi- at which point 30-ton axle trains are introduced in
fied to 80% for passenger traffic and 20% for sub- the traffic model. The increase in axle weights is
urban traffic, accounting for the decrease of local considered for the wagons of BS5400 freight trains
suburban traffic over the years. For the last period, 7 and 8. The weight of train No 1 is assumed to
1970-2005, the annual frequencies of the BS5400 remain constant. Through this increase of the
medium traffic are considered. weight of trains 7 and 8 in 2010, the 30% target is
A traffic model for fatigue assessment is also directly fulfilled in the same year. Therefore, it is
proposed by the International Union of Railways assumed that there is no increase in train frequen-
(UIC 1986). That model is divided into six time cies or axle weights thereafter.
periods and several train configurations are sug- In the case of passenger traffic, statistics regard-
gested in each period for each traffic type (freight, ing the last 5 years show that there is an average
passenger). The trains of the UIC model generally increase of 3-4% in the passenger traffic each year.
For the case of the first scenario, a 3% annual in-
crease in the annual frequency of the BS5400 pas-
senger train (No 5) is assumed for future passenger
traffic. In the second scenario a similar annual per-
centage increase is assumed up to year 2010 and
no increase thereafter. For both scenarios, no
change in passenger train weights is considered.
The annual train frequencies obtained for the years
2010 and 2015 by using the above annual percent-
age increases are shown in Table 3.
Table 3. Annual traffic characteristics for BS5400 (1980)
medium traffic and traffic evolution.
Train Train Annual Annual frequency
No weight tonnage
t t (×106) 1970-2005 2010
5 600 13.5 22500 26080
7 1120 2.70 2411 2800
8 1120 6.75 6027 7000
1 1794 4.05 2257 2500
∗
Load evolution scenario 1 only
Total freight tonnage
Freight tonnage in 2005
scenario 2
1.3
1
scenario 1
2005 2010 2015
Figure 1. Future load evolution scenarios.
3 BRIDGE MODELLING
In order to convert train loads to fatigue load ef-
fects, a FE model of a typical, short-span, riveted
railway bridge is analysed under the passage of the
live load model trains. The bridge model, which is
deemed to be representative of a large number of
riveted railway bridges in the UK and North Amer-
ica, is shown in Figure 2. The two-way traffic
bridge consists of three main girders interconnect-
ed by a grid of longitudinal stringers and trans-
verse cross-girders. The dimensions of the bridge
and its members as well as the nomenclature of the
riveted connections between the primary members
are indicated in the figure. The bridge members are
tied to each other at the location of the connec-
tions, which corresponds to the assumption of full
connection fixity. All the bridge members are
modelled with 8-noded shell elements assuming a
Young’s Modulus of 200 GPa, a Poisson’s ratio of
0.3 and a material density value of 7800 kg/m3.
For the purposes of the linear, elastic analyses,
the trains are traversed in 1 m steps over one track
of the bridge. The loads are applied statically as
point loads without taking into account any load
spread due to the rails and sleepers. The analyses
comprise 35 to 44 load steps, depending on the
type of train, and are carried out up to the point of
load repetition caused by the presence of the same
wagons following the train engine.
Stress history outputs for the generation of the
fatigue load spectra are obtained at a distance of
250 mm from the stringer-to-cross-girder interfac-
es. At these distances, the spurious stress concen-
tration effects, resulting from the tying of the
members to each other, were found to diminish
2015∗ considerably (Imam 2006). Therefore, these stress-
es can be regarded as nominal stresses and can be
30240 used for fatigue damage calculation using the S-N
3240
8100 method. Along the sections’ depth, stresses are re-
2750 ported at a distance of 50 mm from the flanges of
the stringers, which coincide with the location of
the angle clip edges.
Year
Figure 2. Finite element model of a typical riveted railway
bridge.
4 PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK
For the purposes of deriving probabilistic fatigue
load spectra, both loading and modelling uncer-
tainties are accounted for. On the loading side, the
dynamic amplification factor (DAF) and the annual
train frequencies fti are considered as random vari-
ables. Following the extensive field measurements
on short-span steel railway bridges presented by
Byers (1970) and Tobias and Foutch (1997), a
normal distribution with a mean value of 1.10 and
a standard deviation of 0.15 is assumed here for
DAF. The annual train frequencies are assumed to
follow lognormal distributions with a coefficient of
variation (CoV) of 0.14, according to the proposal
of Ebrahimpour et al. (1993). The mean values of
the distributions are assumed to be equal to the an-
nual frequencies presented in Table 1, for the peri-
od 1900-2005, and those presented in Table 3 for
2005 onwards.
 Modelling uncertainty can be represented by the
differences between actual stresses and stresses ob-
tained analytically or numerically. In general, the
actual stresses obtained through field measure-
ments are lower than their calculated counterparts
(Sweeney et al. 1997). Here, a factor α, which is
defined as the ratio of the actual stresses to the cal-
culated stresses, is used to account for modelling
uncertainties. The α factor is assumed to follow a
normal distribution with a mean value of 0.80.
This value was obtained through field measure-
ments on steel railway bridges (Byers 1976,
Sweeney et al. 1997). A CoV of 0.14 is assumed
for α (Byers 1976).
Fatigue load spectra for each period of the traf-
fic model are developed by first converting the
stress histories obtained from the passage of each
train over the bridge into stress ranges through
rainflow counting. Monte Carlo simulation is then
used to simulate train passages and to generate
random stress ranges by multiplying them with a
DAF and an α factor, which are sampled from their
assumed distributions. In order to account for the
randomness in these variables, a different value of
DAF and α is used for each individual train pas-
sage over the bridge. Thus, the sample size in each
period is determined by the annual train frequen-
cies for that period. In order to account for the ran-
domness in the train frequency, 103 samples are
used for the development of the fatigue load spec-
tra of each period.
On the resistance side, the relevant S-N curve is
randomised. The equation of the S-N curve is giv-
en as
N (Δσ ) = C
m
(1)
where N is the number of cycles to failure, Δσ is
the applied constant amplitude stress range and C
and m are constants relevant to the fatigue detail in
question. In a probabilistic formulation, N is gen-
erally considered a lognormal random variable
whose distribution has a constant standard devia-
tion and varying mean (Chryssanthopoulos &
Vrouwenvelder 2005). It then follows from Equa-
tion 1 that, assuming m and Δσ are deterministic, C
will also be lognormal with the same CoV as N.
The S-N curve used here is the one proposed by
Railtrack (2001) for wrought-iron riveted details
(Class WI). For this curve, the design constant am-
plitude fatigue limit (CAFL), corresponding to a
2.3% probability of failure, is 44 MPa at N=107.
The slope m is equal to 4. A two-slope S-N curve,
with a change of slope from m to m+2 at N=107, is
adopted as suggested by BS5400 (1980), for varia-
ble amplitude loading. Variable C is assumed to be
lognormally distributed with a mean value equal to
C=9.33×1013 (Railtrack 2001) and a CoV of 0.30
as proposed by BS 5400 (1980). The CAFL is de-
fined at a constant N=107 and assumed fully corre-
lated with C, which effectively results in random
parallel vertical shift of the S-N curve.
Fatigue damage is calculated through Miner’s
sum (Miner 1945) for the case of variable ampli-
tude loading which is given as
∑N
ni
D= (2)
i i
where D is the total damage, ni is the applied num-
ber of cycles at a stress range Δσi and Ni is the fa-
tigue life corresponding to the same stress range.
Fatigue failure is assumed to occur when D is
greater than or equal to a damage limit Δ which is
typically assumed equal to one in the case of a de-
terministic analysis. However, Δ is generally asso-
ciated with considerable uncertainty. A lognormal
distribution, which is typically used to describe Δ,
with a mean value of 0.90 and a CoV of 0.30 is
considered here (Wirsching 1995).
The remaining fatigue life of the connection is
calculated by using the fatigue load spectra (histo-
grams). The annual damage in each period l of the
traffic model is calculated by combining Equations
1 and 2 and is given as
k1 m k m+2
ni ⎛ Δσ i ⎞ ni ⎛ Δσ i ⎞
∑ ∑
2
Dl = ⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ ⎟⎟ (3)
7 ⎜ ⎟ 7 ⎜
10 ⎝ Δσ ⎠ 10 Δσ
i =1
1 442443 1 0 i =1
44 4244⎠4
⎝ 0
3
for Δσ i ≥ Δσ 0 for Δσ i ≤ Δσ 0
where k1 and k2 are the number of stress range
blocks Δσi in the fatigue load spectrum above and
below the CAFL Δσ0 and ni is the number of cycles
in each Δσi. The limit state function is given as
lp Tl
g =Δ− ∑∑ D
l =1 j =1
l (4)
where lp is the number of periods (or load spectra)
of interest and Tl is the number of years in each pe-
riod. For the traffic model adopted here, lp=5,
T1=20, T2=20, T3=30, T4=35. Thus, the double
summation in Equation 4 involves the total past
damage calculated up to year 2005 plus the future
damage resulting from load evolution. The sum in
Equation 4 is calculated up to the year of fatigue
failure which is when g≤ 0. The remaining fatigue
life of the connection is then simply equal to T5.
Based on the limit state function of Equation 4,
the probability of fatigue failure can be defined as
Pf = P[g ( X ) ≤ 0] (5)
where g≤ 0 represents the ‘failure’ domain. This
probability, which is a function of time, is here
calculated using Monte Carlo simulation with 106
samples. The latter was determined through a con-
vergence study as discussed by Imam (2006).
5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 1.0E+06
Class WI fatigue limit μ = 5.79 MPa
9.0E+05 σdev = 6.31 MPa

8.0E+05

5.1 Fatigue load spectra

Number of applied cycles

7.0E+05

Figures 3-6 show the probabilistic fatigue load 6.0E+05

spectra for each period of the traffic model pre- 5.0E+05

sented in Table 1. These spectra are developed for

4.0E+05 Weibull distribution parameters
η=6.0 , β=1.0

a fatigue-critical connection (S7, see Fig. 2), which

3.0E+05

2.0E+05
was chosen previously through a series of deter- 1.0E+05

ministic analyses (Imam et al. 2005). As men- 0.0E+00

tioned previously, these spectra include the random 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100

effect of DAF, α and fti. The CAFL of the

Stress range (MPa)

Figure 3. Fatigue load spectrum for period 1900-1920.

wrought-iron detail class, which will be considered 1.0E+06

for fatigue damage calculation later on, as well the 9.0E+05

Class WI fatigue limit μ = 6.75 MPa
σdev = 5.67 MPa

mean values μ and the standard deviation σdev of 8.0E+05

the stress ranges are also depicted in the figures for

Number of applied cycles

7.0E+05

each spectrum. 6.0E+05

It can be seen in Figures 3-6 that only a few 5.0E+05

number of stress ranges are above the CAFL of the 4.0E+05

Weibull distribution parameters

wrought-iron riveted detail classification. Howev- 3.0E+05

η=6.0 , β=1.05

er, progressively more stress ranges shift above the 2.0E+05

CAFL in successive periods as can be observed by 1.0E+05

the continual elongation of the critical right-hand 0.0E+00

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100

side tail of the last period histogram (Fig. 6) when Stress range (MPa)

compared with the previous ones. This can also be Figure 4. Fatigue load spectrum for period 1920-1940.
more readily identified by comparing the 99% 1.0E+06
Class WI fatigue limit μ = 8.91 MPa
fractiles of the stress ranges for the different peri- 9.0E+05 σdev = 5.70 MPa

ods. This value is found to be equal to 40.0 MPa 8.0E+05

for the last period (1970-2005), which is consider-

Number of applied cycles

7.0E+05

ably higher than the corresponding fractiles of the 6.0E+05

previous periods, which are found to range be-

5.0E+05

tween 23-30 MPa.

4.0E+05
Weibull distribution parameters
η=10.5 , β=1.50
3.0E+05
It is also evident from Figures 3-6 that there is a 2.0E+05

continuous increase in the mean stress range level 1.0E+05

experienced by the connection. This increase is 0.0E+00

more pronounced in the last period (1970-2005) 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100

Stress range (MPa)
due to the introduction of the considerably heavier Figure 5. Fatigue load spectrum for period 1940-1970.
BS5400 trains when compared to the older trains 1.0E+06

in the period 1900-1970 (see Table 1). 9.0E+05

Class WI fatigue limit
μ = 12.6 MPa
σdev = 9.45 MPa

Two-parameter Weibull distributions are also 8.0E+05

fitted to the fatigue load spectra and are shown

Number of applied cycles

7.0E+05

with thick curves in Figures 3-6. After testing dif- 6.0E+05

ferent distributions, the Weibull model was found 5.0E+05

to give the best fit. The probability density func- 4.0E+05

Weibull distribution parameters

tion of a Weibull distribution is given as 3.0E+05

η=15.0 , β=1.60

2.0E+05
β −1
β ⎛x⎞ ⎡ ⎛ x ⎞β ⎤
f (x ) =
1.0E+05

⎜ ⎟ exp ⎢− ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎥ (6)
η ⎜⎝ η ⎟⎠ ⎢⎣ ⎝ η ⎠ ⎥⎦
0.0E+00
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100
Stress range (MPa)

where β and η are the parameters of the distribu-
tion, which are also shown in the figures for each
period. These parameters were determined using
probability paper plots of the histograms and by
considering the best fit with respect to the stress
ranges close to and above the CAFL, since these
make the largest contribution to fatigue damage.
Figure 7 shows the fatigue load spectrum for the
year 2015 assuming, during load evolution, in-
crease in the annual train frequencies only (sce-
Figure 6. Fatigue load spectrum for period 1970-2005.
nario 1), without any increase in axle weights.
Since during this scenario there is a constant per-
centage increase of the train frequencies each year
and an accompanying proportional increase in the
applied number of cycles, the fatigue load spec-
trum for the year 2015 is effectively an upward in-
crease of the year 2005 histogram. Hence, the
mean values and standard deviations of the two 1970 with the introduction of the heavier BS5400
spectra are equal. trains in the load model. Clearly, fatigue damage
The fatigue load spectrum for the year 2015, as- accumulation has been taking place at a considera-
suming increase in train axle weights in the year ble higher rate during the past thirty to forty years.
2010 (load evolution scenario 2), is shown in Fig- In the case of the traffic evolution scenario 2,
ure 8 together with its Weibull distribution fit. As which involves introduction of the 30-ton axle
mentioned earlier, an increase in the axle weights wagons, there is a further increase in the damage
of the wagons of BS5400 freight trains No 7 and 8 accumulation rate in the year 2010. Evidently, the
from 25 to 30 tons is assumed in this scenario. In likely increase of allowable train axle loads in the
this case, the mean value of the spectrum is equal future is expected to reduce the remaining fatigue
to 13.6 MPa. Introduction of the 30 ton axles can life of metallic bridges considerably. On the other
be seen to extend the right-hand tail of the spec- hand, increasing merely the train frequencies (sce-
trum to even higher stress range levels when com- nario 1) to meet the future target can be seen to re-
pared to the 1970-2005 spectrum. The 99% fractile sult in only a slight increase in the damage accu-
of the stress range increases to 48 MPa, compared mulation rate.
with the value of 40 MPa in the period 1970-2005.
0.8

1.0E+06
μ = 12.6 MPa 0.7
Class WI fatigue limit
9.0E+05 σdev = 9.45 MPa
0.6
Scenario 2
8.0E+05

Cumulative damage
0.5
Number of applied cycles

7.0E+05

6.0E+05 0.4

5.0E+05
0.3
Scenario 1
4.0E+05
Weibull distribution parameters 0.2
η=15.0 , β=1.60
3.0E+05

0.1
2.0E+05

1.0E+05 0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
0.0E+00 Year
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100
Stress range (MPa) Figure 9. Cumulative damage for the connection under two
Figure 7. Fatigue load spectrum for year 2015 (load evolu- load evolution scenarios.
tion scenario 1).
1.0E+06
Class WI fatigue limit μ = 13.6 MPa
The effect of traffic evolution on the remaining
9.0E+05 σdev = 11.2 MPa
fatigue life of the connection can be seen more
8.0E+05
clearly in Figure 10 which shows the probability of
fatigue failure of the connection versus time, cal-
Number of applied cycles

7.0E+05

6.0E+05
culated from Equation 5 by means of Monte Carlo
5.0E+05
simulation. Results for the case of no traffic evolu-
tion as well for the two traffic evolution scenarios
4.0E+05
Weibull distribution parameters
η=13.0 , β=1.23
3.0E+05

2.0E+05
are also shown in Figure 10. As expected, both
1.0E+05
scenarios result in a decrease in the remaining fa-
0.0E+00
tigue life of the connection, the decrease being
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100
Stress range (MPa)
more pronounced for scenario 2 which involves in-
troduction of higher train axle loads in the future.
Figure 8. Fatigue load spectrum for year 2015 (load evolu-
tion scenario 2). The passage of these heavier trains increases the
maximum stress ranges to higher levels (see Fig. 8)
and since these are associated with the upper slope
5.2 Fatigue damage and remaining fatigue life of the S-N curve (m=4), they result in higher dam-
Figure 9 shows the cumulative damage evolution age accumulation rates. It can also be seen in Fig-
of the connection which was obtained through de- ure 10 that the mean remaining fatigue life of the
terministic analyses by assuming DAF=1.0 and connection decreases from 685 years, which is the
α =1.0. The damage was calculated by using the case without considering any traffic evolution, to
design S-N curve for Class WI corresponding to a 242 years for scenario 2. This decrease is less pro-
2.3% probability of failure. The damage accumula- nounced for scenario 1, which involves merely an
tion for both future load evolution scenarios is increase in train frequencies.
shown in the figure. The failure probability estimates shown in Fig-
As can be seen in Figure 9, the damage expend- ure 10 should be viewed within the context of the
ed in the period 1900-1970 under the historical railways’ network. It is estimated that, in the UK
traffic model is very low. However, there is a sharp alone, there exist approximately 6000 riveted rail-
increase in the damage accumulation rate after way bridges similar to the one investigated in this
paper (Fig. 2). Deterministic analyses have shown nection and these were found to be reasonably cap-
that 8 connections of similar criticality to the one tured through Weibull distributions. The fatigue
investigated here exist in each track of the bridge load spectra showed that there is a continuous in-
(Imam 2006). Therefore, 16 fatigue-critical con- crease in the mean stress range and the cumulative
nections can be found in each of these two-track fatigue damage experienced by the connection. In
bridges. This amounts to approximately 100000 particular, there is a significant increase in the
such connections being present in the entire bridge damage accumulation rate in the last thirty to forty
stock. Considering different failure probabilities, a years and this rate is expected to increase even fur-
1% target would imply 1000 connection failures ther with the introduction of greater train axle
within 65 to 115 years, depending on the traffic weights in the future.
evolution scenario adopted. A lower target of Probabilistic remaining fatigue life estimates for
0.1%, which implies 100 failures, results in re- the connection were also obtained. Loading, re-
maining fatigue lives between 40 and 70 years. sistance and modelling uncertainties were taken in-
to account. On the loading side, the problem was
1
μ = 242 years
randomised through dynamic amplification and the
0.1
σdev = 133 years
Scenario 2
annual train frequencies. On the response side, the
μ = 685 years
S-N curve pertaining to the connection detail and
σdev = 411 years the cumulative damage model (Miner’s sum) were
Probability of failure Pf

0.01
No load evolution
treated as random. Finally, on the modelling side,
0.001
the ratio between actual and calculated stresses
0.0001
μ = 515 years
σdev = 304 years was represented as a random variable. The connec-
Scenario 1
tion was found to have some fatigue life reserve,
0.00001
ranging between 40 and 70 years for a 0.1% target
0.000001
probability of failure. Traffic evolution was found
0 50 100 150 200 250
Time after 2005 (years)
300 350 400
to have a considerable effect on the remaining fa-
tigue life of the connection, especially when this
Figure 10. Probability of fatigue failure versus time for the
connection under two traffic evolution scenarios. was associated with increased axle loads.

The results presented in Figures 9 and 10

demonstrate that fulfilling the future target demand ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
in rail traffic by introducing higher axle loads will
lead to a greater reduction in the remaining fatigue The work described in this paper forms part of a
life of the old metallic railway bridges when com- project supported by Network Rail. The opinions
pared to the option of increasing the train frequen- expressed are those of the authors and do not nec-
cies. However, it should also be noted that increas- essarily represent those of the sponsoring organisa-
ing train frequencies can be expected to be more tion.
costly since more trains have to be introduced and
further investments in signaling and other aspects
of line upgrade will be required. REFERENCES

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