TOPIK 1

What is Statistic?

OPRE 6301

In today’s world. . .

. . . we are constantly being bombarded with statistics and statistical information. For example:

Customer Surveys Medical News Demographics Political Polls Economic Predictions Marketing Information
Sales Forecasts Stock Market Projections Consumer Price Index Sports Statistics

How can we make sense out of all this data? How do we differentiate valid from flawed claims?

What is Statistics?!

“Statistics is a way to get information from data.”

Data

Statistics

Information

Data:Facts, especially numerical facts,

collected together for reference or
information.

Information:Knowledge communicated
concerning some particular fact.
S

Apa itu statistik? 6301 OPRE di dunia hari ini s...... Kami sentiasa sedang dihujani dengan statistik dan maklumat
statistik. Sebagai contoh: pelanggan Ukur perubatan berita demografi politik undian ekonomi ramalan pemasaran
maklumat jualan ramalan pasaran saham unjuran indeks harga pengguna sukan statistik bagaimana kita boleh
membuat perasaan daripada semua maklumat ini? Bagaimana Adakah kita membezakan sah dari tuntutan cacat? 1
Apakah statistik?! Statistik ini adalah satu cara untuk mendapatkan maklumat daripada data. Data statistik
maklumat Data: fakta, terutamanya fakta berangka, dikumpulkan bersama-sama untuk rujukan atau maklumat.
Maklumat: ilmu disampaikan mengenai beberapa fakta tertentu.

tatistics is a tool for creating an understanding from a set of numbers.

Humorous Definitions:

The Science of drawing a precise line between an unwar-

ranted assumption and a forgone conclusion.

The Science of stating precisely what you don’t know.

tatistics adalah satu alat untuk mewujudkan pemahaman daripada satu set nombor. Lucu definisi: Sains melukis
garisan tepat antara unwar an - ranted kira andaian dan kesimpulan yang forgone. Sains mengatakan dengan tepat
apa yang anda memakai t tahu. 2

A business school student is anxious about their statistics course, since they’ve heard the course is difficult. The
professor provides last term’s final exam marks to the student. What can be discerned from this list of numbers?
 Statistics
D
Information
Seorang pelajar sekolah perniagaan itu
bimbang tentang kursus statistik mereka, List of last term’s marks. 958970657857:
kerana mereka ve mendengar kursus ini
adalah sukar. Profesor menyediakan jangka New information about the statistics class.
tarikh peperiksaan akhir s markah kepada
E.g. Class average, Proportion of class
pelajar. Apakah boleh engkau dari senarai
receiving A’s Most frequent mark, Marks
nombor-nombor ini?
distribution, etc.
ata
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Key Statistical Concepts. . .

Population

— a population is the group of all items of interest to a

statistics practitioner.

— frequently very large; sometimes infinite.

E.g. All 5 million Florida voters (per Example 12.5).

Sample

— A sample is a set of data drawn from the population.

— Potentially very large, but less than the population.

E.g. a sample of 765 voters exit polled on election day.

Parameter

— A descriptive measure of a population.

Statistic

— A descriptive measure of a sample.

Pictorially, we have. . .

Population Sample

Subset
 Samples have Statistics.
Parameter
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Statistic

Populations have Parameters,

Descriptive Statistics. . .

. . . are methods of organizing, summarizing, and present- ing data in a convenient and informative way. These
methods include:

Graphical Techniques (Chapter 2), and

Numerical Techniques (Chapter 4).

The actual method used depends on what information we would like to extract. Are we interested in. . .

measure(s) of central location? and/or

measure(s) of variability (dispersion)?

Descriptive Statistics helps to answer these questions. . .

Inferential Statistics. . .

Descriptive Statistics describe the data set that’s being analyzed, but doesn’t allow us to draw any conclusions or
make any interferences about the data. Hence we need another branch of statistics: inferential statistics.

Inferential statistics is also a set of methods, but it is used to draw conclusions or inferences about characteristics
of populations based on data from a sample.

Statistical Inference. . .

Statistical inference is the process of making an estimate, prediction, or decision about a population based on a
sample.

Population

SampleInference

Statistic Parameter

What can we infer about a Population’s Parameters based on a Sample’s Statistics?

We use statistics to make inferences about parameters.

Therefore, we can make an estimate, prediction, or deci- sion about a population based on sample data.
Thus, we can apply what we know about a sample to the larger population from which it was drawn!

Rationale:

Large populations make investigating each member im-

practical and expensive.

Easier and cheaper to take a sample and make estimates

about the population from the sample.

However:

Such conclusions and estimates are not always going to be correct. For this reason, we build into the statisti- cal
inference “measures of reliability,” namely confi- dence level and significance level.

Konsep statistik utama... Populasi penduduk adalah Kumpulan semua item menarik minat pengamal statistik.
kerap sangat besar; kadang-kadang tak terhingga. Cth: 5 juta Florida pengundi – pengundi (per 12.5 contoh).
Sampel A sampel adalah satu set data yang diambil dari populasi. Berpotensi sangat besar, tetapi kurang daripada
penduduk. Contohnya sampel 765 pengundi keluar Senaraikan pada hari pilihan raya. Parameter A ukuran
deskriptif populasi. Statistik A ukuran deskriptif sampel. 4 pictorially, kami ada... Populasi sampel Subset
Parameter statistik populasi mempunyai parameter, sampel mempunyai statistik. Statistik diskriptif 5...... adalah
kaedah penganjuran, ringkasan, dan data masa-ing dengan cara yang mudah dan bermaklumat. Kaedah ini
termasuk: teknik grafik (Bab 2), dan teknik-teknik berangka (Bab 4). Kaedah sebenar yang digunakan
bergantung pada jenis maklumat yang kami ingin cabutan. Adakah kita tertarik. . Measure(s) lokasi? dan/atau
measure(s) 5(a) (penyebaran)? Statistik diskriptif membantu untuk menjawab soalan-soalan ini... Statistik
inferens 6... Statistik deskriptif menerangkan data set bahawa s yang sedang dianalisis, tetapi doesn t
membenarkan kami untuk membuat sebarang kesimpulan atau membuat apa-apa interferences mengenai data.
Oleh itu kita perlu satu lagi cawangan statistik: Statistik inferens. Statistik inferens juga merupakan satu set
kaedah-kaedah, tetapi ia digunakan untuk melukis kesimpulan atau kesimpulan tentang ciri-ciri penduduk
berdasarkan data yang dikumpulkan. 7 statistik inferens... Statistik inferens ialah proses membuat suatu
anggaran, ramalan atau keputusan tentang populasi berdasarkan sampel. Penduduk SampleInference statistik
Parameter apa yang boleh kami membuat kesimpulan tentang s penduduk berdasarkan s sampel statistik
parameter? 8 kami menggunakan Perangkaan untuk membuat kesimpulan tentang parameter. Oleh itu, kita boleh
membuat anggaran, ramalan atau deci-sion tentang populasi berdasarkan sampel data. Oleh itu, kita boleh
mengaplikasikan apa yang kita tahu tentang sampel populasi lebih besar daripada ia tertarik! Rasional: Populasi
besar membuat menyiasat setiap ahli im-praktikal dan mahal. Lebih mudah dan murah untuk mengambil sampel
dan membuat anggaran tentang populasi daripada sampel. Walau bagaimanapun: Apa-apa kesimpulan dan
anggaran tidak sentiasa akan menjadi betul. Atas sebab ini, kita membina kepada statisti-cal inferens ukuran
kebolehpercayaan, iaitu mengesahkan-penghuni aras dan tahap kepentingan.
Confidence and Significance Levels. . .

The confidence level is the proportion of times that an estimating procedure will be correct.

E.g. a confidence level of 95% means that, estimates based on this form of statistical inference will be cor- rect
95% of the time.

When the purpose of the statistical inference is to draw a conclusion about a population, the significance level
measures how frequently the conclusion will be wrong in the long run.

E.g. a 5% significance level means that, in the long run, this type of conclusion will be wrong 5% of the time.

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If we use α (Greek letter “alpha”) to represent signifi- cance, then our confidence level is 1 − α.

This relationship can also be stated as:

Confidence Level + Significance Level = 1

Consider a statement from polling data you may hear about in the news:

“This poll is considered accurate within 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.”

In this case, our confidence level is 95% (19/20 = 0.95), while our significance level is 5%.

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Examples of Business Problems. . .

Accounting: An auditor is interested in the costs of business travel

Organization Behavior: A manager is interested in why turnover of

employees seems to have increased

Marketing: Your firm wishes to expand its product line and deter-

mine which products are of interest to consumers

Finance: The CEO wishes to understand what factors are affecting

the firm’s stock price

Economics: Your firm is interested in the status of the economy over

the next year

Operations Research/Management: Store managers have been re-

porting increased waiting lines at checkout counters

Management Information Systems: You are contemplating replacing

your financial reporting system

International Management: You are interested in expanding your

firm’s services to a non-US market

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