COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP - 2ND QUARTER 2019

BUSINESS DEFAULTING RISK A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D E

161 COUNTRIES UNDER UPGRADES DOWNGRADES
VERY LOW LOW SATISFACTORY REASONABLE FAIRLY HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME

THE MAGNIFYING GLASS

A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY GROENLAND
(DENMARK)

• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk

• Comprehension of the business environment ICELAND
FINLAND
RUSSIA
• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years NORWAY

A3 SWEDEN

of payment experience ESTONIA

LATVIA
UNITED KINGDOM
CANADA LITHUANIA

IRELAND BELARUS
POLAND
BELGIUM
GERMANY
CZECH
REPUBLIC UKRAINE
KAZAKHSTAN
SLOVAKIA

FRANCE AUSTRIA

MONGOLIA
B
SWITZERLAND
HUNGARY MOLDOVIA
SLOVENIA
ROMANIA

ITALY
BOSNIA SERBIA

UZBEKISTAN
C
BULGARIA
GEORGIA
KYRGYZSTAN NORTH
SPAIN ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
UNITED STATES PORTUGAL GREECE
KOREA
TURKEY TURKMENISTAN
TAJIKISTAN JAPAN
KOSOVO
SOUTH
MALTA KOREA
CYPRUS SYRIA
TUNISIA LEBANON
ISRAEL IRAN AFGHANISTAN
MOROCCO ALGERIA PALESTINIAN IRAQ
TERRITORIES
JORDAN CHINA
PAKISTAN NEPAL
KUWAIT
LIBYA
BAHRAIN
EGYPT
MEXICO QATAR
TAIWAN
CUBA

SAUDI
INDIA
DOMINICAN OMAN MYANMAR
REPUBLIC ARABIA HONG KONG
ICELAND LAOS
JAMAICA MAURITANIA
BANGLADESH
FINLAND BELIZE MALI NIGER
NORWAY HONDURAS HAITI ERITREA
SENEGAL CHAD YEMEN UNITED THAILAND PHILIPPINES
CABO VERDE SUDAN
ARAB
GUATEMALA NICARAGUA BURKINA EMIRATES
SWEDEN EL SALVADOR FASO DJIBOUTI
VIETNAM
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO GUINEA BENIN
ESTONIA GUINEA-BISSAU CAMBODIA
RUSSIA
COSTA RICA
VENEZUELA GUYANA IVORY NIGERIA SOUTH
CENTRAL ETHIOPIA SRI LANKA
COAST AFRICAN SUDAN
PANAMA SURINAME SIERRA LEONE
LATVIA REPUBLIC MALAYSIA
FRENCH
DENMARK GUYANA CAMEROON MALDIVES
LITHUANIA COLOMBIA LIBERIA GHANA TOGO
SINGAPORE

A2
UGANDA
SAO TOME
NETHERLANDS KENYA
BELARUS & PRINCIPE CONGO
IRELAND UNITED GABON INDONESIA
ECUADOR EQUATORIAL GUINEA RWANDA
KINGDOM POLAND DR CONGO
GERMANY BURUNDI
BELGIUM A3 PERU
LUXEMBOURG CZECH UKRAINE BRAZIL
REPUBLIC TANZANIA PAPUA
SLOVAKIA NEW GUINEA

FRANCE A3 MOLDOVA
TIMOR-LESTE

SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA HUNGARY ANGOLA

SLOVENIA ROMANIA
CROATIA MALAWI
ZAMBIA
A2 BOSNIA
SERBIA
BOLIVIA
ZIMBABWE MADAGASCAR
ITALY
BULGARIA NAMIBIA MAURITIUS
MONTENEGRO
MACEDONIA PARAGUAY MOZAMBIQUE ILE DE LA RÉUNION
BOTSWANA
AUSTRALIA
ALBANIA

GREECE CHILE
PORTUGAL SPAIN
TURKEY
SOUTH
AFRICA
ARGENTINA LESOTHO

UPGRADES MALTA

CYPRUS
DOWNGRADES URUGUAY

NEW ZEALAND

KYRGYZSTAN C UZBEKISTAN B AUSTRIA A2 CZECHIA A3 GERMANY A2 ICELAND A3 SLOVAKIA A3

•R  ecent exchange rate flexibility is
enabling inflation-targeted monetary
policy.
• Benefits from sound remittances and
transfers from expatriates (37% of
GDP).
• Launch of structural reforms to
fight poverty (USD 3726 per capita,
PPP), corruption, and underground
economy (31% of GDP).
•C  ontinued economic opening since •S  trongly linked to German economy; •O  pen economy closely linked to • Coface’s estimate for German GDP •F  ishing quotas for capelin (a key •W  ith the exports of goods and
2017. vulnerable to its weaker economic Germany – slower global trade and growth for this year is currently 0.8%, export product) will reduce overall services to GDP ratio reaching 97%
• Progress towards greater activity. weaker economic activity in Germany down from 1.5% last year. marine product exports. in 2018, the economy is highly open.
sophistication of the economic • Weakening industrial production will limit Czech growth. • Indicators show increasingly • Coface expects the global economic However, given its high dependence
structure. dynamics, deteriorated PMI. • Deterioration of the automotive pessimistic business expectations. downturn to impact tourism in on the German market, the slower
• Continued reforms of agriculture sector is a concern for the whole • The German automotive industry is the Iceland in 2019.
• Period of political uncertainty. global trade dynamics and weaker
modernisation and agro-processing. economy. main driver behind this slowdown – car • Business confidence has decreased. economic activity in Germany will
• Continued development of gold • Growth of industrial production in production has significantly decreased Companies supported by the very limit the growth of the Slovakian
production and export (number one 2019 has so far been weak; strong this spring 2019 from 2017. good growth dynamic will now face economy.
export). deterioration of manufacturing PMI • The ruling coalition has been serious solvency problems. • As with Czechia, the struggles of
• Increased spending on social indicators. weakened following the latest • Recent data indicates that the the automotive sector are worrying
programs, is expected to have a elections, in a context of political Icelandic economy could grow only for Slovakia’s economy: automotive
positive knock-on effect. landscape transformation; leading to slightly, or even deteriorate in 2019. production accounts for nearly 5%
an increase in political uncertainty. of gross value added and 13% of the
country’s output.