TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF DAILY TEMPERATURE OF

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA

A Time Series Project

Department of Mathematics
University of Science and Technology of Southern Philippines

Master of Science in Applied Mathematical Sciences

KARLA JANE L. AMPER

I. INTRODUCTION
a. The Data
Temperature Temperature Temperature
Date Date Date
(F) (F) (F)
August 30, 4 September October 05,
1989 17, 1989 9.9 1989 11.7
August 31, 8 September October 06,
1989 18, 1989 9.3 1989 9.2
September 8.8 September October 07,
01, 1989 19, 1989 10.6 1989 7.3
September 8.8 September October 08,
02, 1989 20, 1989 8.6 1989 9.7
September 6.1 September October 09,
03, 1989 21, 1989 7.2 1989 9.4
September 8.6 September October 10,
04, 1989 22, 1989 12.6 1989 10
September 8.9 September October 11,
05, 1989 23, 1989 7.8 1989 10.9
September 7.8 September October 12,
06, 1989 24, 1989 6.3 1989 11
September 5 September October 13,
07, 1989 25, 1989 9.2 1989 10.9
September 7 September October 14,
08, 1989 26, 1989 5.8 1989 8
September 13.3 September October 15,
09, 1989 27, 1989 9 1989 11.2
September 7.9 September October 16,
10, 1989 28, 1989 5 1989 7.5
September 7.5 September October 17,
11, 1989 29, 1989 11.9 1989 7.2
September 8.3 September October 18,
12, 1989 30, 1989 13.4 1989 13.2
September 7.2 October 01, October 19,
13, 1989 1989 10.5 1989 12.9
September 6.5 October 02, October 20,
14, 1989 1989 6.2 1989 9.4
September 8.9 October 03, October 21,
15, 1989 1989 5.1 1989 10.2
September 7.4 October 04, October 22,
16, 1989 1989 9.5 1989 9.5
 Temperature Temperature Temperature
Date Date Date
(F) (F) (F)
October 23, November December
12.4 13.2 16.5
1989 15, 1989 08, 1989
October 24, November December
10.2 13.8 14.1
1989 16, 1989 09, 1989
October 25, November December
13.4 16 18.7
1989 17, 1989 10, 1989
October 26, November December
11.6 10.9 16.2
1989 18, 1989 11, 1989
October 27, November December
8 11.9 14.8
1989 19, 1989 12, 1989
October 28, November December
9 12.4 12.6
1989 20, 1989 13, 1989
October 29, November December
9.3 13.2 10.4
1989 21, 1989 14, 1989
October 30, November December
13.5 15.5 12.2
1989 22, 1989 15, 1989
October 31, November December
8 21.6 12.6
1989 23, 1989 16, 1989
November November December
8.1 14.9 12.1
01, 1989 24, 1989 17, 1989
November November December
10 14.4 17.3
02, 1989 25, 1989 18, 1989
November November December
8.5 12.9 16.4
03, 1989 26, 1989 19, 1989
November November December
12.5 13.1 12.6
04, 1989 27, 1989 20, 1989
November November December
15 14 12.3
05, 1989 28, 1989 21, 1989
November November December
13.3 17.9 11.8
06, 1989 29, 1989 22, 1989
November November December
11 17.7 12
07, 1989 30, 1989 23, 1989
November December December
11.9 16.3 12.7
08, 1989 01, 1989 24, 1989
November December December
8.3 18.3 16.4
09, 1989 02, 1989 25, 1989
November December December
9.7 13.7 16
10, 1989 03, 1989 26, 1989
November December December
11.3 13.3 13.3
11, 1989 04, 1989 27, 1989
November December December
12.5 10.6 11.7
12, 1989 05, 1989 28, 1989
November December December
9.4 14.1 10.4
13, 1989 06, 1989 29, 1989
November December December
11.4 16 14.4
14, 1989 07, 1989 30, 1989
 Temperature Temperature
Date Date
(F) (F)
December January 23,
31, 1989 12.7 1990 14.3
January 01, January 24,
1990 14.8 1990 20.5
January 02, January 25,
1990 13.3 1990 15
January 03, January 26,
1990 15.6 1990 17.1
January 04, January 27,
1990 14.5 1990 16.9
January 05, January 28,
1990 14.3 1990 16.9
January 06, January 29,
1990 15.3 1990 13.6
January 07, January 30,
1990 16.4 1990 16.4
January 08, January 31,
1990 14.8 1990 16.1
January 09, February 01,
1990 17.4 1990 12
January 10, February 02,
1990 18.8 1990 12.2
January 11, February 03,
1990 22.1 1990 14.8
January 12, February 04,
1990 19 1990 14.8
January 13, February 05,
1990 15.5 1990 14.4
January 14, February 06,
1990 15.8 1990 12.9
January 15,
1990 14.7
January 16,
1990 10.7
January 17,
1990 11.5
January 18,
1990 15
January 19,
1990 14.5
January 20,
1990 14.5
January 21,
1990 13.3
January 22,
1990 14.3
b. Objectives
The objective of this project is to develop a significant Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) Model.

c. Significance of the Study

Temperature plays a major role in a certain place. Thus, this study will serve as an
overview and can be helpful for predicting or forecasting temperature in Melbourne, Australia.
II. METHODOLOGY

ARIMA Model
In doing the Time Series Analysis, STATA (a statistical analysis package for standard
and specialized estimation procedures) is used. Figures 1-3 shows the graph of the temperature
data with the corresponding AC and PAC.

.twoway (line temperature date2)

Figure 1. Graph of Temperature of Melbourne, Australia

The graph starts in the bottom then goes up for a period of time and goes down again.
.ac temperature
 Figure 2: Autocorrelations of Temperature of Melbourne, Australia

.pac temperature

Figure 3: Partial Autocorrelations of Temperature of Melbourne, Australia

 From the figures, we can see a nonstationarity in the mean and we suspect that the
variance is also nonstationary. From Figure 3, we can have a possible significant Autoregressive
Model with spike at lag 1. Now we try to perform transformation or differencing. Figure 4 shows
the graph using a Logarithmic Transformation.

. gen logtemperature = log(temperature)

. tsline logtemperature

Figure 4: Logarithmic Transformation of Temperature of Melbourne, Australia

 Figure 5 employs differencing to the graph of Figure 4.

. gen dlogtemperature = D1.logtemperature

. tsline dlogtemperature

Figure 5: Logarithmic Transformation with Differencing

.ac dlogtemperature

Figure 6: Autocorrelations of the Transformation with Differencing

.pac dlogtemperature

Figure 7: Partial Autocorrelations of the Transformation with Differencing

. arima dlogtemperature, noconst arima(1,1,1)

Table 2: ARIMA Regression

From the table, the ARIMA Model is (1 + 0.299B)Zt = (1 + 1B)at equivalent to Zt = –

0.299Zt –1 + at + at –1 which is significant.
 Figure 8: Graph of the Residual

Figure 9: Autocorrelations of the Residual

Figure 10: Partial Autocorrelations of the Residual