Risks to die for ...

What is a HAZARD?
A hazard is something nasty that can happen, and when it does it
could hurt or kill someone, for example a car crash or a lightning strike.

What is RISK?
Risk is the likelihood, or chance, that the hazard will actually happen.

For example:
A hungry lion is a big hazard.
But what is the chance that it will eat you?
If the lion is free it’s highly likely — so big risk.
If the lion is locked in a cage, then the risk is small.
But there is still a small chance of the keeper forgetting to lock Free lion Caged lion
the cage door, or the lion breaking out, or the lion grabbing you Big hazard Big hazard
through the bars. Big risk Small risk

How are risks expressed?

Risk, or chance, can be expressed in many ways — normally as a number, called a ’risk factor’,
between 1 (certainty) and 0 (never happens). To make it easier to understand, risks can be
often expressed in MICROMORTS per activity or time.
1 micromort = 1 in a million probability (or chance) of death.
For example:
the risk of a rock climber falling and dying is 1 in 25000 or 40 micromorts per hour of climbing.

Familiar Risks
Number of ALL these activities have the same
micromorts
risk of death = 1 micromort
Giving birth (averaged worldwide) 2100
Smoking 1½ cigarettes
An effective (whole body) radiation dose of
800
20mSv (UK annual dose limit)
Eating 40 tablespoons of peanut butter
Radiation-induced fatal cancer from having one
400
CT scan of the abdomen
Travelling 7 miles by motorbike
An accident at home over 12 months 100
Eating 1000 bananas
Serving in Afghanistan for one day 47

Doing a skydive jump 10

Walking 27 miles

Drowning in the bath over a year 1.5 Travelling 230 miles in a car
Radiation-induced fatal cancer from having one
1 Having one chest x-ray examination
chest x-ray examination

Death by falling out of bed over a year 0.5

7500 miles travel by jet
Being struck by lightning in a 12 month period 0.2
Drinking 2 glasses of wine
Death from a nuclear power station accident in a
0.1
12 month period Living for 15 years within 20 miles of a
Being killed in a plane crash 0.02 nuclear power station

Thanks to Professor David Spiegelhalter for assistance in preparing this poster