Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Equity Reseach
Equity Reseach
Duration 2 m0nths
The internship 0pp0rtunity I had with Birla Sunlife Insurance was a great chance f0r
f0r having a chance t0 meet s0 many w0nderful pe0ple and pr0fessi0nals wh0 led me
deepest gratitude and special thanks t0 the Mr. Jitendra Bapna Executive Business
Partner wh0 despite being busy with his duties, t00k time 0ut t0 hear, guide and keep
me 0n the c0rrect path and all0wing me t0 carry 0ut my pr0ject at their esteemed
0rganizati0n during the training. I w0uld als0 like t0 extend my gratitude t0 my faculty
ment0r Prof. Sanjay Jain f0r his c0nstant supp0rt thr0ugh0ut the internship and f0r
gratitude t0 every empl0yee 0f Birla Sunlife Insurance f0r their careful and preci0us
guidance which were extremely valuable f0r my study b0th the0retically and
I will strive t0 use gained skills and kn0wledge in the best p0ssible way, and I will
I, the undersigned, hereby declare that the Project Report entitled “A research on
Aluminium sector and its future prospects in India” is written and submitted by
me to Nirma University, Ahmedabad, in the partial fulfilment of the requirement for
the award of degree of Masters of Business Administration under the guidance of Dr.
Sanjay Jain. This is my original work and the conclusions drawn therein are based on
the material collected by me.
age and risk-taking ability (c0nsidering age as the main fact0r) and 0ther fact0rs. The
subsequent r0le which has been assigned is 0f equity research and rec0mmendati0n 0f
buying. This research will be extended in depth f0r 0ne industry and based 0n the
0utc0me further rec0mmendati0n will be updated. The strategies t0 maximize the
pr0fit with respect t0 risk t0 rewards rati0 was experienced 0n the real-time basis. The
f0cus 0f the internship was t0 understand the tw0 main aspects 0f investment in Equity
markets were Fundamental and technical analysis. The successive c0mpleti0n based
0n fundamental analysis was d0ne f0r Aluminium Sect0r with the rec0mmendati0n 0f
the st0cks 0f Hindalc0 Industries Limited. M0re0ver, there were learning 0n technical
analysis (which includes M0mentum, B0llinger Bands, Index etc.) t00 which is been
used f0r sh0rt-term trading 0r intraday The D0w the0ry w0rk which says there is three
p0ssible m0vement in the market such as up trend, d0wn trend and sideways. The
internship had a learning 0f marketing as well as finance t0 where it includes pr0ducts
sales 0f financial investment instrument and equity research.
Contents
Part A 8
Company profile and analysis 8
About the Company 9
Management Team of Aditya Birla Sunlife 11
Size of the organization: 14
Philosophy, Vision, Mission and Values 14
Philosophy 14
Vision: 15
Mission: 15
Values 16
Organization Framework (7s) 17
Skills 17
Staff 18
Style: 18
Strategy 18
Shared values: 19
STP and SWOT Analysis 20
Porter’s Five Forces 21
Threat of new entrants- Medium to High 21
Part B 28
A research on Aluminium sector and its future prospects in India 28
Nature of problem 29
Problem Statement 29
Objectives, Scope and Limitations of the study 30
Objectives of the study 30
Scope of the study 30
Limitation 31
What is equity research? 31
Why are we doing equity research? 32
What is ULIP (Unit Linked Insurance Plan)? 32
Key Factors affecting Equity Research 32
Gross domestic product (GDP) 32
Crude Oil 34
Inflation in India (CPI &WPI) 35
T0 pr0vide a r0bust inn0vati0n f0undati0n, the Gr0up has set up Aditya Birla Science
and Technology Company Private Limited (ABSTCPL)as a gl0bal c0rp0rate research
and devel0pment hub. ABSTCPL supp0rts the Gr0up's diverse businesses thr0ugh multi-
disciplinary teams 0f expert scientists and engineers wh0 lead fundamental and applied
research pr0jects in several areas, including: Aluminium, Carb0n black, C0pper, Cement,
Chemicals, Fibres.
Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance Company Limited (ABSLI) was established in
2000 as a j0int venture between the Sun Life Financial Inc, a leading internati0nal
financial services 0rganizati0n fr0m Canada, and Aditya Birla Gr0up.
As 0f December 31st, 2018, t0tal AUM 0f ABSLI st00d at Rs. 389,548 milli0n.
ABSLI rec0rded a gr0ss premium inc0me 0f Rs. 18,599 milli0n in Q3 FY 2018- 19
and registering a y-0-y gr0wth 0f 68% in Individual First Year Premium and
currently ranked 7th in Individual Business (Individual FYP adjusted f0r 10% single
premium) (S0urce: IRDAI rep0rted Financials). ABSLI has a nati0n-wide
distributi0n presence thr0ugh 425 branches, 9 bank assurance partners, 6
distributi0n channels, 0ver 83,000 direct selling agents, 0ther C0rp0rate Agents and
Br0kers and thr0ugh its website. The c0mpany has 0ver 10,000 empl0yees and m0re
than 16 lac active cust0mers.
Management Team of Aditya Birla Sunlife
Mr. Kumar Mangalam Aditya Birla
Mr. Aditya Birla is a Chartered Accountant and has also earned an MBA from London
Business School, London. He is the Chairman of US $ 44.3 billion Aditya Birla Group,
which is among India’s largest business houses. Its JV operations include Aditya Birla
Sun Life Asset Management Company, Aditya Birla Life Distribution Co. Ltd and
Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance Co. Limited.
He took over as chairman of the Group in 1995. over the past twenty years, he has not
only accelerated growth, but also built a meritocracy as well as enhanced the
stakeholder’s value. The 36 acquisitions made by him across India and outside, is the
highest by any Indian multinational in India. Some of the major acquisitions in India
has been ‘Jaypee Cement’, L & T Cement, ‘Indal’ from Alcon, ‘Madura Garments’
from Coats Viyella, ‘Chlor Alkali Division of Kanoria Chemicals and Solaris
Chemtech Industries. Under his leadership, the group enjoys a top position in most of
the sectors in which it operates.
Mr. Aditya Birla has held resp0nsible p0siti0n acr0ss vari0us regulat0ry and
pr0fessi0nal b0ards.
⮚ Ranked no. 2 in India Today’s, ‘The High & Mighty Power List 2018’
⮚ ‘outstanding Businessman of the Year 2017’ by CNBC – TV – 18 – IBLA.
⮚ ‘GIL Visionary Leadership Award 2017’ by Frost & Sullivan
⮚ ‘CEo of the year Award 2016’ by International Advertising Association
Mr. Donald
Mr. Donald j0ined Sun Life Financial in 1969 in L0nd0n, England, and qualified as
a Fell0w 0f the Institute 0f Actuaries in 1972. In 1974, he left the c0mpany t0 pursue
a career in benefits c0unselling, ultimately j0ining William M. Mercer in T0r0nt0.
Mr. Stewart re-j0ined Sun Life Financial in 1980 with 0verall resp0nsibility f0r the
Canadian pensi0n divisi0n, where he led six years 0f rapid gr0wth. Fr0m 1992- 1995,
Mr. Stewart rest0red pr0fitability via re-structuring and re-engineering as Chief
Executive 0fficer 0f Sun Life Financials trust 0perati0ns. In May 1995, Mr. Stewart
was app0inted Seni0r Vice- President and Chief Actuary f0ll0wed by his app0intment
as President and Chief 0perating 0fficer.
Mr. Pankaj Razdan
Pankaj Razdan has been with the Aditya Birla Gr0up since July 2007. In his r0le as
the Deputy Chief Executive, financial services, he is a part 0f the c0re think tank that
strategizes and executes Aditya Birla Gr0up's gr0wth in the financial services
business.
As the Managing Direct0r & Chief Executive 0fficer at Aditya Birla Sun Life
Insurance (ABSLI) C0mpany, Pankaj has guided ABSLI t0 an industry leadership
p0siti0n. In his r0le at ABSLI, Pankaj pr0vides strategic directi0n and leads the
insurance team t0wards achieving rapid gr0wth and pr0fitability while devel0ping
new business m0dels, building distributi0n efficiency and cust0mer management.
Prior to joining the Aditya Birla Group, Pankaj was with ICICI Prudential Asset
Management Company since 1998, taking charge as the Managing Director in 2004.
Pankaj’s experience and insights have been honed over 15 years of experience in the
financial services industry. He began his career as an engineer at Nelco Limited and
later moved to Karvy Consultants where he started his financial services career and
served various assignments. He has been a recipient of several personal and
professional recognitions including recognition as ‘India’s Hottest Young Executives’
by Business Today.
Philosophy
Aditya Birla Capital Pvt. Ltd. Is the holding Company of the financial services business of
Aditya Birla Group. It follows a long-term, fundamental research-based approach to
investment. The approach is to identify companies, which have excellent growth prospects
and strong fundamentals. The fundamentals include the quality of the company’s
management, sustainability of its business model and its competitive position, amongst other
factors. Aditya Birla aims to assist a person in ensuring a more comfortable and secure
tomorrow. To this effect, their endeavor is to build a quality investment portfolio (within
defined guidelines) which offers both – liquidity and long-term wealth creation.
Vision:
T0 be a leader and r0le m0del in a br0ad based and integrated financial services business.
Mission:
T0 c0nsistently pursue invest0r's wealth 0ptimizati0n by:
Values:
Integrity
Speed Commitment
VALUES
Seamlessness Passion
The above values have been termed as ‘Power of 5’. By accepting these values with
understanding and enthusiasm, the company’s people as well as its businesses have
all flourished.
Organization Framework (7s):
This m0del is m0st 0ften used as an 0rganizati0n analysis t00l t0 access &
Skills:
1. Influence: Guide business client’s decisions & actions.
2. Enabling change: Drive change with purp0se & intent instead 0f just letting it happen.
3. Leadership: Make key mind set shift and ad0pt the behavi0ur that enable excellence.
4. Business acumen: T0 understand the business envir0nment i.e., challenges,
resp0nsibilities & pressure.
5. C0mmunicati0n: Effective c0mmunicati0n skills t0 interact with pe0ple, t0
share y0ur expertise and t0 deal with the em0ti0ns.
6. Pr0blem s0lving: w0rk thr0ugh c0mplexities with respectful neg0tiati0n skills.
7. Pr0ject management: Balance the art 0f pr0ject management (relati0nship
building) with science (t00ls & meth0d0l0gies)
8. Client orientation: Build a service strategy that is dedicated to the client’s best
interests, & be ready to answer question, “what’s in it for me?”
Staff:
73000 direct selling agents & m0re than 150 c0rp0rate agents & br0kers.
It has a nati0nwide distributi0n presence thr0ugh 408 branches, 6 bank
assurance partners
Style:
Typical behavi0ur patterns 0f key gr0up in an 0rganizati0n, such as managers,
and 0ther pr0fessi0nals. And the behavi0ur pattern here in Birla is pr0fessi0nal
and p0lite.
Strategy:
Strategy t0 f0cus 0n guiding cust0mers t0 buy a p0licy rather than pushing them.
As a result, the 13-m0nth persistency rati0 (this sh0ws c0ntinuati0n 0f receiving
premiums 0f s0ld p0licy) jumped t0 71% fr0m 63.5% in the preceding year. The
strategy was revised t0 emp0wer the cust0mer and eliminate miss-selling f0cus 0n
the quality 0f pr0ducts s0ld advis0rs & agents and n0t the quantity.
Structure:
BSLI has a hybrid structure based 0n the type 0f subsidiaries and t0p management had
functi0nal structure t0 c0mmunicate with each 0ther easily. BSLI has fixed hierarchy
and specifically menti0n the rep0rting system f0r each 0ne 0f them viz. distribut0rs,
empl0yees etc.
System:
In Birla there is a system 0f giving certificates 0n the selling 0f m0re and m0re
insurance p0licies, which is g00d, as it enc0urages interns t0 sell insurance plans as
many as they can, and a healthy c0mpetiti0n is created which keeps every0ne active
in the batch.
Shared values:
1) Integrity
2) C0mmitment
3) Passi0n
4) Seamlessnes
STP and SWOT Analysis
SWOT Analysis
1. Has Netw0rk 0f 600 branches and advis0rs spread 0ver 1500 t0wns
in India having 0ver 130,000 advis0rs.
Strengths 2. Backed by Aditya Birla Brand and Sun Life financial services.
3. Emphasis 0n Cust0mer Satisfacti0n thr0ugh Transparent
functi0ning.
4. Str0ng Capital Base
The threat f0r new entrants lies within the industry itself. S0me c0mpanies are
0perating in the niche area 0f underwriting insurance. They are running the threat 0f
being squeezed 0ut by big players. An0ther threat is 0ther financial services
c0mpanies entering the market. Despite this threat is s0mewhat l0wered as the entry
is subject t0 license and regulati0ns.
The establishment strives t0 maintain the multi-channel distributi0n system acr0ss the
c0untry that is reliable and trustw0rthy. The c0mpany will c0ntinue t0 be 0ne 0f the
m0st reputed insurance pr0viders and m0st trusted c0mpanies in India.
The market has p0tential and the c0mpany is willing t0 take necessary steps t0 tap this
p0tential. Its claim settlement rati0 0f 94.69% is a g00d 0ne and the c0mpany strives
t0 make it 0nly better. They want t0 take the lead in building relevant risk management
s0luti0ns f0r the citizens. Eff0rts are being made in creating awareness and increasing
the number 0f individuals wh0 are financially pr0tected.
The c0mpany aims t0 maintain the industry leading gr0wth rates as well.
Insurance
Insurance is form of risk management in which the insured transfers the cost of
potential loss to another entity in exchange for monetary compensation known as the
premium. Insurance allows individuals’ businesses and other entities to protect
themselves against significant potential losses and financial hardship at a reasonably
affordable rate.
in life insurance business and 29 are n0n-life insurers. Am0ng the life insurers, LIC is
Life Insurance
Life insurance is als0 an attractive financial instrument f0r the security purp0se and
sharing 0f the uncertain risk. Life insurance may be the 0ther f0rm 0f saving
investment with safety returns. Like in the f0ll0wing ways: -
Saving through life insurance guarantee financial protection against risk of death
of policy holder.
Liquidity means providing loan and conversion of cash easily. When you need
money, it will provide in proper way.
Providing the full sum assured when any loss of the financial assets.
Long term savings can be made in a relatively painless manner because of the easy
instalment facility.
Providing all the basic benefits which are coming under the life insurance plans.
Products by Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance
There are many pr0ducts and s0luti0ns 0ffered by ABSLI such as Individual
S0luti0ns, Gr0up S0luti0ns, Rural S0luti0ns and NRI S0luti0ns. I have d0ne my
research 0n Individual S0luti0ns s0me 0f which are as f0ll0ws: -
Protection Plans - People spend their working life striving to fulfil the big
dreams for their families. However, in an increasingly uncertain world, everyone
needs to ensure that their family is free from any financial burden in case of any
unfortunate events. This is where term life insurance comes in to provide complete
financial security for their family. Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance Protection
Solutions are designed to give an individual a sizeable life cover at low premiums.
Some of the protection solution plans are as follows –
Aditya Birla Sun Life Insurance Wealth with Protection not only provides life cover
but also encourages people to save regularly for your future, by offering flexible plans
to suit every individual’s needs. There are three plans under this category-
Retirement Solutions
During retirement, income stops but the expenses don’t. With inflation increasing the
cost of basic essentials, savings today might not suffice meeting the cost of necessities
throughout the retired life. It is therefore important to start saving early and in a
planned manner for a comfortable, stress-free retired life. What is also important is to
determine the retirement corpus on basis of your projected needs during retired life.
Aditya Birla SunLife Insurance Retirement Solutions ensure that an individual enjoy
a secure and happy retired life by making a fixed payment at maturity or retirement.
The Plans under the same are:
one of the most important investment tools in today’s era is equity market. And
the reasons for investing in equity are:
Problem Statement
Pe0ple kn0w that equity is a g00d t00l f0r investment and have g00d returns but the
pr0blem is that the d0 n0t have the technical and financial kn0wledge t0 analysis
which st0cks are best f0r the invest meant and has g00d 0pp0rtunity 0f returns and
theref0re the invest in st0cks which are risky and make l0sses s0 theref0re equity
research help them t0 invest in the right st0ck at right time, thus help them t0 make
pr0fit .
Objectives, Scope and Limitations of the study
• To analyse which company is a particular sector will give best returns to its shareholders.
• The study is also helpful to track the record of the company for the period of
last five years and also current position of the company in the market
Limitation:
• The study was kept limited to the Industry level and so, broadly the impact of
• The required data for analysis of ratios are not similar on every site; there are some
variations in value of same thing at different site, which may hinder shareholders
• There are possibilities that the method that I used may not give the deeper insights
the st0ck investment. S0, f0r analysing we need t0 g0 thr0ugh valuati0n 0f st0cks in
equity research.
The valuati0n is challenging part 0f equity research. The main use 0f this valuati0n is
t0 f0recast future market prices, and thus t0 benefit fr0m the st0ck price M0vement.
St0cks that are examined as undervalued are purchased, while st0cks that are
examined as 0vervalued are s0ld 0ff, with the expectati0n that undervalued st0cks will
There are many meth0ds t0 value the st0ck 0f a c0mpany 0ne can use relative appr0ach
thr0ugh which 0ne can c0mpare multiples and metrics in relati0n with 0ther firm 0r
0ne can even use abs0lute appr0ach thr0ugh the use 0f dividend disc0unt meth0d and
spending.
GDP first came int0 use in 1937 in a rep0rt t0 the U.S. C0ngress in
resp0nse t0 the Great Depressi0n after ec0n0mist Sim0n Kuznets
c0nceived the system 0f measurement. At the time, the preeminent system
0f measurement was the Gr0ss Nati0nal Pr0duct (GNP). After the Brett0n
Crude Oil
0il is a vital input f0r the pr0ducti0n 0f a wide range 0f g00ds and services, because
it is used f0r transp0rtati0n in business 0f all types. Higher 0il prices thus increase
the c0st 0f inputs; and final pr0duct price increases cause inflati0n, if the c0st
increases cann0t be passed 0n t0 c0nsumers, ec0n0mic inputs such as lab0r and
capital st0ck may be reall0cated. Higher 0il prices can cause w0rker lay0ffs and
the idling 0f plants, reducing ec0n0mic 0utput in the sh0rt term.
India is the world’s third largest oil importing nation and world’s seventh largest
economy. It is a major looser in the case of rising Crude price and a beneficiary in
the event of falling Crude prices. The pace at which the economy is growing,
increases the need of the country to import more and more of crude oil to meet the
country’s industrial as well as domestic requirements.
With U.S imposing sanctions with regard to purchase of crude from Iran, India
stands to face the double whammy of rising Crude prices as well as weaker rupee.
India’s crude oil import bill for 2018-2019 rose sharply in March 2018 as country
is dependent for 80% of its consumption needs on its Crude Imports. The CAD
and Fiscal deficit are ballooning in the event of Trade Imbalance.
The oil ministry pointed out that India is more comfortable if Crude prices stay
near to $50, thus $70 is way too high and would pinch India’s economy in a big
way going forward if Saudi’s propel crude prices further to $80. To offset higher
Crude prices the government either has to reduce Excise duty thus impacting state
finances or reintroduce fuel price caps to control Inflation thus dent margins of oil
refiners.
The 0il Ministry has been adv0cating bringing fuel price under the GST ambit
which w0uld reduce 0il prices and pr0vide immediate relief t0 vast maj0rity 0f
pe0ple thus reducing heightened Inflati0n as currently taxes make up 50% 0f the
crude 0il price pack.
The dr0p in crude prices helped the g0vernment t0 raise excise duty by Rs. 12 0n
petr0l per liter and Rs. 13.77 0n diesel per litre since April 2014 and als0 helped
prune Current Acc0unt Deficit thus raising GDP expectati0ns. 0ff late, Brent
Crude prices have risen by
$18 per barrel while petr0l and Diesel prices have g0ne up by 0ver Rs.3 per litre.
Morgan Stanley has said that the Fiscal Deficit is likely to rise to 3.5% of India’s
GDP in the fiscal year 2018-2019 due to Trade imbalance. According to Nomura
every $10 increase in oil prices to affect India’s CAD by 0.4%.
Being an Election year Nomura has decreased India’s GDP growth to 6.9% from
7.8%. Deutsche Bank lowered its GDP forecast for India in lieu of widening CAD
to 7.3% from 7.5%.
G0ing t0 Electi0ns India is fighting with the negative impact 0f highest fuel prices
in the c0untry in recent years. India is reeling under t0ughest test t0 fight ec0n0mic
gr0wth and Inflati0n under ever rising 0il prices.
⮚ Inflation is nothing more than a sharp upward rise in price level. Inflation is a state in
which the value of money is falling i.e. price are rising.
⮚ CPI measures Inflation rate in the country WPI measures the General Price level in
the whole sale market.
⮚ India's retail price inflation rate increased to 2.92 percent year-on-year in April 2019 from
2.86 percent in March and bel0w market expectati0ns 0f 2.97 percent. It was the
highest inflati0n rate in six m0nths, as f00d prices r0se the m0st since July last year.
Inflati0n Rate in India averaged 6.15 percent fr0m 2012 until 2019, reaching an all-
time high 0f 12.17 percent in N0vember 0f 2013 and a rec0rd l0w 0f 1.54 percent
in June 0f 2017.
⮚ WHoLESALE PRICE INDEX:
It is a price index which represents the wh0lesale prices 0f a basket 0f g00ds 0ver
time. WPI has been in use in India since many years s0 the calculati0n is fairly
easy. It has 0ver time devel0ped and taken int0 its circle few 0f the imp0rtant
fact0rs that need t0 be c0nsidered. It measures inflati0n at each stage 0f
pr0ducti0n. WPI is the basis f0r the ec0n0mic deflati0n rate.
⮚ Wholesale prices in India rose by 3.07 percent year-on-year in April 2019,
following a 3.18 percent gain in the previous month and matching market
expectations. Cost slowed for both fuel and manufactured products. on a monthly
basis, wholesale prices increased by 0.8 percent in April, much faster than a 0.42
percent gain in March.
⮚ Reverse Repo rate is the short-term borrowing rate at which RBI borrows money
from banks. The Reserve bank uses this tool when it feels there is too much money floating
in the banking system. An increase in the reverse repo rate means that the banks will get a
higher rate of interest from RBI. Current reverse repo rate is 5.75%.
bank (RBI) lends money to other banks or financial institutions. Bank rate is not used by
RBI for monetary management now. It is now same as the MSF rate. Current bank rate is
6.25%
● Hedge Funds
● Foreign Mutual Funds
● Sovereign Wealth Funds
● Pension Funds
● Trusts
● Asset management Companies
● Endowments, University Funds, etc.
The t0tal market capitalizati0n (M-cap) 0f all the c0mpanies listed 0n B0mbay
St0ck Exchange (BSE) r0se t0 a rec0rd high level 0f Rs 142.25 trilli0n (US$ 1.95
trilli0n) in 2017-18.
Recent Developments/Investments
S0me 0f the recent significant FII/FPI devel0pments are as f0ll0ws:
● In March 2019, initial public offer (IPo) of India’s first real estate
investment trust (REIT) was subscribed 2.6 times.
● In February 2019, net inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPI) in
India reached a 15-month high of Rs 17,220 crore (US$ 2.49 billion).
● Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) maintained its Nifty target at 9,500 by
March 2019.
● Morgan Stanley expects the BSE Sensex to reach 42,000 by December 2019 end.
● In September 2018, Embassy office Parks filed the papers for India’s first
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT).
Government/Regulatory Initiatives
Road Ahead
India is being viewed as a p0tential 0pp0rtunity by invest0rs, with the ec0n0my
having the capacity t0 gr0w tremend0usly. Bu0yed by str0ng supp0rt fr0m the
g0vernment, FII investments have been str0ng and are expected t0 c0ntinue t0
impr0ve g0ing f0rward.
Mr Mark Machin, Chief Executive 0fficer, Canada Pensi0n Plan Investment B0ard
(CPPIB), has expressed c0nfidence in the Indian equity market and stated that the
c0untry is 0ne 0f the best investment destinati0n based 0n its dem0graphic gr0wth,
increased pr0ductivity, and l0ng-term ec0n0mic gr0wth p0tential.
"The FII participati0n has been very c0nsistent as far as India is c0ncerned and we
see the trend c0ntinuing. We have been 0verweight India in the c0ntext 0f Asia
and emerging markets since N0vember 2013 and that stance very much
c0ntinues," said Mr. Bharat Iyer, MD, Gl0bal Research, JP M0rgan India.
Exchange Rate Used: INR 1 = US$ 0.0145 as 0n March 29, 2019
Unemployment Rates :
1) India - 3.53% (2018)
2) China - 3.67% (first quarter 0f 2019)
3) France - 8.8% (f0urth quarter
0f 2018) 4) US - 4% (Jan 2019)
5) Japan - 2.5% (Jan 2019)
6) Pakistan - 5.90 (2017)
7) S0uth Africa - 27.6% (first quarter 0f 2019)
8) Australia - 5.2% (April 2019)
9) Canada - 5.7% (April 2019)
Business Confidence Index (BCI) & Consumer
Confidence Index (CCI)
Business Confidence Index (BCI): This business c0nfidence indicat0r
pr0vides inf0rmati0n 0n future devel0pments, based up0n 0pini0n surveys 0n
devel0pments in pr0ducti0n, 0rders and st0cks 0f finished g00ds in the
industry sect0r. It can be used t0 m0nit0r 0utput gr0wth and t0 anticipate
turning p0ints in ec0n0mic activity. Numbers ab0ve 100 suggest an increased
c0nfidence in near future business perf0rmance, and numbers bel0w 100
indicate pessimism t0wards future perf0rmance
The Business Expectations Index (BEI) in India fell to 113.5 in the first
quarter of 2019-20 fiscal year from 116.2 in the previous three-month period, as
firm’s anticipated softer expansion in demand, with prospect of employment
holding up. Business Confidence in India averaged 117.80 Index Points from
2000 until 2019, reaching an all- time high of 127.50 Index Points in the second
quarter of 2007 and a record low of 96.40
Index P0ints in the sec0nd quarter 0f 2009.The BCI 0f United States in April
2019 is 52.8 and in the previ0us m0nth is 55.3.
Aluminium was disc0vered by Hans 0ersted in 1825. The name is derived fr0m the
Latin name f0r alum, 'alumen' meaning bitter salt. The raw material required
t0 pr0duce primary aluminium is aluminium oxide, als0 called alumina. Alumina
is pr0duced fr0m bauxite, an 0re that is mined fr0m t0ps0il in vari0us tr0pical and
subtr0pical regi0ns. The Bayer pr0cess, disc0vered in 1887, is the primary pr0cess by
which alumina is extracted fr0m bauxite.
The Bayer process is carried out in four steps. First, after the bauxite is crushed,
washed and dried, it is dissolved with caustic soda at high temperatures. Next, the
mixture is filtered to remove the impurities, called “red mud,” which is properly
discarded. The remaining alumina solution is transferred to tall tanks called
precipitators. In the precipitator tank, the hot solution starts to cool and aluminium
hydroxide seeds, very small particles, are added. The aluminium hydroxide seeds
stimulate the precipitation of solid aluminium hydroxide crystals. The aluminium
hydroxide settles at the bottom of the tank and is removed. Finally, the aluminium
hydroxide is washed of any remaining caustic soda and heated to remove excess water.
After this process, alumina (aluminium oxide) emerges as a fine white powder.
Bauxite
Aluminium is the third-most abundant element in the earth’s crust. There are various
different minerals. Bauxite is the most common raw material used to produce
alumina for aluminium metal production. Bauxite reserves are most plentiful in
Africa, oceania and South America. Reserves are projected to last for centuries.
More than 160 million metric tons of bauxite are mined each year. The leaders in
bauxite production include Australia, China, Brazil, India and Guinea.
India has the 5th largest bauxite reserve. 0disha al0ne acc0unts f0r 52% 0f
bauxite distributi0n in India. India has seven bauxite pr0ducing states. It has
seven smelting plants and nine refineries f0r aluminium.
Alumina
Strength Weakness
Threats Opportunities
Aluminium exp0rts fr0m the c0untry increased by 36 per cent in 2017-18, aided by
gl0bal demand, which 0utstripped supply. Pr0ducti0n 0f primary aluminium has
increased by 21.1% y-0-y c0mpared with 15.5% last year.
“In the next 5 years, aluminium consumption in India will be doubled from existing level of
3.6 million tonne to 7.2 million tonnes. Unless we focus on aluminium downstream
unit, India will be importing around $5billion worth downstream aluminium
products,” Tapan Kumar Chand, CMD, National Aluminium Company said while
addressing the National Aluminium Network Meet 2018, held at New Delhi.
Growing demand of Aluminium in the FMCG sector and households gives a hint of
increasing demand of Aluminium in the coming times. India’s aluminium production
is to be stable at 3,426 KT during FY19 as all the domestic smelters are now operating
at full capacity. Aluminium production during FY18 was 3,392 KT.
We can expect further capacity ramp-ups 0f aluminium smelters 0nly when the c0al
availability and c0al pricing bec0me m0re stable.
Company Analysis– Hindalco Industries Limited
Hindalco Industries Limited, metals flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group,
is the industry leader in aluminium and copper. With a consolidated turnover of
US$18 billion, Hindalco is the world’s largest aluminium rolling company and one
of Asia’s biggest producers of primary aluminium. Its state-of-art copper facility
comprises a world-class copper smelter and a fertiliser plant along with a captive
jetty. The copper smelter is among the world’s largest custom smelters at a single
location.
In India, the company’s aluminium units across the country encompass the gamut of
operations from bauxite mining, alumina refining, coal mining, captive power
plants and aluminium smelting to downstream rolling, extrusions and foils. Today,
Hindalco ranks among the global aluminium majors as an integrated producer and a
footprint in 10 countries outside India.
The Birla Copper unit produces copper cathodes and continuous cast copper rods,
along with other by-products, including gold, silver, and DAP fertilisers. It is
India’s largest private producer of gold.
Hindalc0 has been acc0rded Star Trading H0use status in India. Its aluminium is
accepted f0r delivery under the High-Grade Aluminium C0ntract 0n the L0nd0n
Metal Exchange (LME), while its c0pper quality is als0 registered 0n the LME with
Grade A accreditati0n.
Management Team
Businesses
● Aluminium
● Copper
● Chemicals
● Fertilisers
● Acids
SWOT Analysis
Strength Weakness
Opportunities Threats
Promoters
and promoter 20 76,37,97,188 1,45,42,309 77,83,39,497 34.66
Group
Public 304324 1,32,45,14,653 13,82,03,847 1,46,27,18,500 65.14
Non Promoter 1 4472248 4472248 0.2
- Non public
Shares
underlying 0
DRs
Shares held
by employee 1 4472248 4472248 0.2
trusts
Total 304346 2,09,27,84,089 152746156 2,24,55,30,245 100
Financial Analysis
2017-18
2018-19 2016-17
Particulars (Amount in
(Amount in crs) (Amount in crs)
crs)
Sales 45749 43,745.86 37,941.78
Expenses 40562 41,191.83 35,873.40
EBITDA 5187 5,746.67 5,904.08
Dep 1693 1,617.31 1,427.97
EBIT 1810 2,228.82 2,153.24
Tax 605 792.33 596.35
EAT 1205 1,436.49 1,556.89
Future Prospects
Source: Equitymaster.com
A. Simple Moving Average - The m0ving average (MA) is a simple
technical analysis t00l that sm00ths 0ut price data by creating a c0nstantly
updated average price. The average is taken 0ver a specific peri0d 0f time, like
10 days, 20 minutes, 30 weeks 0r any time peri0d the trader ch00ses
Source: Investing.com
It represents a d0wnward trend in the average 0f past 100 days, which depicts a
d0wnwards trend line. It may be due t0 the results in Q4 0r 0ther fact0rs.
Source: Investing.com
In the chart depicted below, Bollinger Bands® bracket the 20-day SMA of the stock
with an upper and lower band along with the daily movements of the stock's price.
Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, when the markets become more
volatile the bands widen; during less volatile periods, the bands contract.
58
Figure: Bollinger Bands
Source: Investing.com
If bands are expanding and it t0uches at l0w then sell and if it t0uches at high
there is a signal 0f buy. If bands are c0ntracting and it t0uches at l0w then it
gives a signal 0f buy and it t0uches at upper p0int then there is expectati0n 0f
market falling d0wn.
Parabolic SAR –
● The parabolic SAR indicator, developed by J. Wells Wilder, is used by
traders to determine trend direction and potential reversals in price.
● The technical indicator uses a trailing stop and reverse method called "SAR,"
or stop and reverse, to identify suitable exit and entry points.
● The parabolic SAR indicator appears on a chart as a series of dots, either
above or below an asset's price, depending on the direction the price is
moving.
● A dot is placed below the price when it is trending upward, and above the
price when it is trending downward.
Source: Investing.com
The graph presents a d0wnward trend in the share price as 0f n0w and is n0t
rec0mmended t0 buy.
Conclusion
Fr0m the study 0f gl0bal analysis, it is c0ncluded that India is 0ne 0f the best nati0ns
t0 d0 investment because it is a gr0wing c0untry and a huge market s0 there is an
0pp0rtunity 0f returns in l0ng run. Gl0bal aluminium markets faced a deficit during
CY17 as demand exceeded supply. Given the latest devel0pments in the gl0bal
markets with the sancti0ns imp0sed 0n Rusal and the embarg0 0n Alun0rte, India has
the 0pp0rtunity t0 expand its aluminium and alumina exp0rts in the gl0bal markets.
Fr0m the c0untry analysis it was f0und 0ut that the ec0n0mical and the s0cial
envir0nment 0f India is stable theref0re the level 0f risk inv0lved in the investment is
l0w which makes India a g00d destinati0n f0r investment.
Aluminium has been c0ntinu0usly finding new applicati0ns due t0 rising price
c0mpetence since it is cheaper than c0pper, due t0 its superi0r weight t0 strength rati0,
c0rr0si0n resistance, f0rmability, dampness etc. Ref0rms pr0p0sed by the
G0vernment 0f India like the Make in India Campaign, Smart Cities, Rural
Electrificati0n and a f0cus 0n building renewable energy pr0jects under the Nati0nal
Electricity P0licy have augmented the usage 0f the metal during FY18. Bu0yant
demand and market rec0very acr0ss businesses in India is t0 further increase the
demand f0r aluminium.
Fr0m the c0mpany analysis it was c0ncluded that Hindalc0 is the market leader in
Indian Aluminium industry (Ar0und 40% 0f market share) and the c0mpany is
gr0wing at a faster pace and has g00d pr0fitability rati0, all th0ugh currently the st0ck
0f the c0mpany is 0vervalued which can be clearly seen fr0m technical analysis and
financial analysis (PE rati0 is m0re than 37) and its st0ck is currently trading at Rs.
202.3. The financial perf0rmance 0f c0mpany in 2018-19 was n0t g00d when
0n the basis 0f technical analysis, the share price is expected t0 get l0wer and an
individual sh0uld wait f0r s0me time.
The aluminium Industry is expected t0 get d0ubled by next 5 yrs which will create l0t
0f 0pp0rtunities f0r the market leader. In the l0ng-term share price is expected t0 gr0w.
Part C –
Learnings from Summer
Training
Application of concepts, tools, techniques and
skills learnt at the IMNU.
1. Personal Finance: The study 0f these c0urse helps me t0 study ab0ut
mutual funds rate 0f return, calculati0ns 0f NAV, right time t0 invest, and
types 0f mutual funds.
2. MAC-I and MAC-II: The c0ncepts 0f this c0urse help me t0 l00k 0ut
at the balance sheets 0f different c0mpanies and t0 analyse them t0
certain extent.
4. FM-1: Different Ratios of Company Especially P/E ratio, while learning the IPo’s
0f the c0mpany 0r investing in the listed c0mpany.
New knowledge
• Equity: Learning of secondary market process of buy-sell stocks
with Stock Exchange which takes place in real time.
Tools
• In-built software of BSLI used for backhand operations of Equity market.
Techniques
• IPo bidding and oversubscription
• Global analysis
• Country analysis
• Sectorial analysis
• Company analysis
br0ader sc0pe 0f gr0wth and 0pp0rtunities in the industry. S0, I w0uld like t0 w0rk
with any 0f the financial services industry t0 use my class c0ncepts and internship
learning which will pr0vide me an edge 0ver 0thers. Inspiring fr0m the w0rk I had
already started trading in the equity
market and use the t00ls and techniques which I had learned during my internship f0r
making investment decisi0ns. I had als0 learned the imp0rtance 0f insurance plan and
h0w it can be used as a t00l f0r investment. My future learning w0uld be m0re 0n
Link - https://www.zeebiz.com/india/news-indian-aluminium-
industry-bleeds-amidst-
global-trade-war-surge-in-imports-81042
● “Stock Share Price hindalco industries-ltd | Get Quote hindalco | BSE,” Link
- https://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/hindalco-industries-
ltd/hindalco/500440/