0.803075 0.129328 Play? Play ?

Lef Right
1 1 1 1 0 1 1
2 1 1 1 0 1 1
3 1 1 0 1 1 1
4 1 0 1 0 1 1
5 1 0 1 1
6 1 0
7 1 0
8 1 0
9 1 0
10 1 0
11 1 0
12 1 0
13 1 0
14 1 0
15 1 0
15 1 0
Mu-Lef Mu-Right UCB-Lef UCM-Right
1 0 1
2 0
Assignment 2

Imagine that you walk into a casino and you see two similar slot machines (machines dispensing reward as p

L Machine Output Probability R Machine Output Probability

1 0 1 0
1 0 1 1
1 0 1 0
1 0 1 1
1 1 1 1

0.2 0.6
nes dispensing reward as per luck) called L and R. Both operate as follows: you put Re 1/- to pull the handle on the slo

We need to first carryout a small but equal number of tries on both

the machine and find out for those tries how many Re 1 we get from
each. By doing so we get an idea that which machine yeilds more 1's
for the same number of tries and hence we have some idea as to which
is the machine with more probability.

This is done in Excel through Macro Enabled codes with the help of the developer toll

The Macro Function for producing Random outputs of either 1 or 0

formula is written which essentially does is checks if an active cell
has 1 or not (i.e the re 1 you put in the Machine) and for that Re 1 it produces an out of 0 or 1
randomly (i.e which is essentially the machine output req of either Re 0 or Re 1) this done by
the random function

For probability
another program which count the number of machine inputs of Re 1
and number of Re 1 or Re 0 got corresponding to those tries. We select the first entry as the active cell
and then run the Probablity finding program to find the probaablity or train the machine

This is done for both the machine and afer completion both the probablity can be seen and compared
The number of trials or training set can be increased also for both to find better results
pull the handle on the slot machine, out comes either Re 1/- or Re 0/-. The Re 1/- comes out with 2 different probabilit
with 2 different probabilities: p_L for the left machines, p_R for the right. Unfortunately, you do not know the quantitie
do not know the quantities p_L and p_R, since if you did you'd simply patronize the machine whose p is greater. What m
whose p is greater. What method do you have in mind to quickly infer which of the two machines, L or R, is more profita
es, L or R, is more profitable ?