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Irish PM Taoiseach Leo Varadkar Speech British Irish Chamber of Commerce
Irish PM Taoiseach Leo Varadkar Speech British Irish Chamber of Commerce
Irish PM Taoiseach Leo Varadkar Speech British Irish Chamber of Commerce
,
British Irish Chamber of Commerce Gala Dinner, Thursday 5 September
2019
It’s hard to believe it now, but when this Chamber was founded in 2011 some people wondered
if it was really necessary. They cited as evidence the fact that our two countries were so similar
and suggested there was no need for a new body to bring people together.
Today you play an integral role – helping to create links, shape ideas, and expand the close
At a time of political and economic uncertainty in the UK your work is needed now more than
ever.
We meet tonight at a point where the stated intention of the British Government is to leave the
However, the story of Brexit does not end if the United Kingdom leaves on 31st October or even
January 31st - there is no such thing as a clean break. Rather, we just enter a new phase.
If there IS a deal we are going to enter several years of negotiations on a new free trade
agreement and a new economic and security partnership. That will be frought. There will be
· tariffs,
· customs,
· quotas,
· product standards,
· state aid,
· fishing rights and aviation landing rights between UK and EU, including Ireland.
I think it may make the negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement seem simple.
Europe and division on Europe will dominate British politics for many years to come.
If there is NO-deal, and I believe we may have to live with no-deal for a period, then at a certain
point we will have to begin negotiations again. The first and only items on the agenda for such
negotiations will be citizens’ rights, the financial settlement with the EU and a solution to the
Irish Border. All the issues we spent the last two years on.
So Brexit is not a storm to be weathered. It is a permanent change in the political and economic
environment in which the European Union and the United Kingdom will exist.
I believe, our future depends on making a realistic assessment and developing practical
responses.
The good news is that thanks to your businesses and others like them our trading relationship is
strong.
Yes, Brexit will pose challenges and will change the way business is conducted, but we can
In 2018, Ireland exported over €16 billion worth of goods to the UK, while nearly a quarter of all
Irish goods imports – worth almost €20 billion in total - came from the UK.
In 2017, the UK was Ireland’s largest services export market with 16.4% of all services exports
The Revenue Commissioners estimate that there are approximately 90,000 Irish traders either
The UK is geographically and culturally our closest neighbour and will continue to be a vital
It is our mission in Government to cushion and protect our trade-flows as much as possible.
Your experience has been - and will be - invaluable as we develop strategies to do so.
On Brexit itself, our position has been clear and consistent. Our preferred outcome is a deal on
the basis of the Withdrawal Agreement. The EU has been firm and respectful in its response that
any deal must be consistent with the Withdrawal Agreement that was negotiated, in good faith,
Avoiding the return of a hard border on this island is a Government priority in all circumstances.
We must protect peace on the island and the success of the all-island economy. This is why the
backstop continues to be a critical component of the Withdrawal Agreement, unless and until an
alternative is found. And yes, we are open to alternatives as we always have been. But they
the Northern Ireland political institutions reinstated. We shared our perspectives on the
Withdrawal Agreement and agreed that our teams would establish one-to-one contact. We will
meet again in Dublin on Monday. Unfortunately, given political developments in the UK, there
is a significant and growing risk of no deal. We don’t wish to see a no-deal Brexit and we will
continue our efforts to avoid one, but not at any cost. Unlike some, I see no upsides to No Deal.
A Withdrawal Agreement without the backstop is no good to us. It merely kicks the can down
the road until the transition phase ends in December 2020. The only difference being that the
United Kingdom would legally be out of the European Union but not in any meaningful way.
They would experience none of the consequences. We would face 14 more months of
uncertainty and sapping confidence. It's not an outcome that the Irish Government can agree to.
Mr. President
Economies and businesses do not succeed on the basis of hope alone. Everyone in this room
place, with a cross-government response. We have ramped up our planning at both domestic and
EU levels. The Brexit Omnibus Act has put in place all the legislation we need for no-deal. It is
focused on protecting our citizens, on defending the economy and jobs, particularly in the
regions and sectors most exposed to Brexit. The House of Commons has yet to pass such
legislation.
All businesses, from the major multinationals to the small indigenous microbusiness, need to
listen to the advice and help on offer to respond to the challenges of Brexit.
Our contingency planning has revealed that some sectors have low levels of Brexit preparedness,
particularly smaller and independent businesses, retail and construction. That needs to change.
We also want to help those who trade cross-border. According to research carried out by Inter
Trade Ireland earlier this summer, just 6% of an estimated 20,000 cross-border traders are
prepared for cash flow and liquidity issues in the event of no deal.
Revenue are communicating directly with businesses potentially at risk from Brexit. Over
100,000 letters and over 10,000 follow-up phone calls. Over 85% of traders now have an EORI
number.
The Clear Customs initiative, developed by Skillnet on behalf of the Government, offers eligible
customs agents, customs intermediaries and affected businesses a free training programme to
build capacity in the customs sector, as well as a €6,000 grant to help build in-house capacity.
A €100m Beef scheme recently opened for applications and will provide financial aid to Irish
beef farmers facing difficult circumstances as a result of market volatility and uncertainty arising
out of Brexit.
Millions are available in business grants and hundreds of millions in low-cost loans.
Training and information seminars are being held all over the country.
Our diplomatic and agency staff around the world are opening up new markets and pathfinding
opportunities.
On Budget Day, we will detail the further financial supports that will be made available to those
most exposed in industry, agriculture, tourism and the border region. Among these is a €200m
rescue and restructure fund to save businesses vulnerable because of Brexit but still viable with
adaption.
President,
People often ask me what will happen in the event of no-deal. As this is an event with no
No-deal, of course, can only ever be a British decision. A decision to leave without a deal, on
WTO rules, will be theirs, and not one imposed on them by the EU. It is a British policy choice
to make. Whatever happens, Ireland will not be dragged out of the Single European Market. A
market of 400m consumers. A Single Market we helped to build and one on which our jobs and
If no deal happens, first of all, some things won't change. The Common Travel Area will remain
in place so British and Irish citizens will still be able to travel freely between our two islands and
live, work, study and access healthcare, welfare, housing and the labour market as though we
were citizens of both.Irish and Dual British-Irish citizens in Northern Ireland and Britain will be
still be able to travel, work, do business and study throughout the EU without a visa or permit.
While medicine shortages occur from time to time, we do not anticipate any significant change in
medicines supplies. There will still be plenty of food on shelves but perhaps not all of the same
brands.
When you fly into Ireland from Britain, you will no longer pass through the blue channel. You
will have to choose the green or red one and pay any taxes that may be due. The same will apply
to products bought on-line from the UK, brought in from Northern Ireland and EU consumer
Flights, trains and buses will continue to operate normally for a period but an agreement will be
needed for this to continue permanently. EU vessels will no longer be allowed to fish in UK
waters and vice versa, though the Commission has proposed a short extension of the status quo.
Tariffs will apply to goods imported into Ireland from the United Kingdom and vice versa. The
tariff schedules are already known. You will need to be registered as an importer/exporter and
you will need to make customs declarations. This will be expensive and bureaucratic for
business. There will be checks on goods and live animals and, as far as possible, they will take
place in ports, airports and at businesses. But some may need to take place near the border. We
are working out the details of this with the European Commission.
A no-deal Brexit will have adverse effects on our economy causing growth to slow, but it will
Unemployment will rise but total employment will also continue to rise albeit at a slower rate.
The public finances will go from surplus to deficit but a deficit of less than 2%, so better than
We do not anticipate pay cuts, income tax increases or reductions in overall public spending.
Mr. President
economy in the world and the 2nd most competitive economy in the euro area. Our economy is
Today we have:
● Solid wage growth, with average earnings increasing by over 3% last year, well ahead
of inflation.
● The national debt down as a % of GDP. About half of what it was five years ago.
● Public spending is rising but at only half the rate it did in the “Celtic Tiger” period.
● Implementation of Project Ireland 2040, the Public Sector Stability Agreement on pay,
the National Childcare Scheme and reforms to social protections like parental leave,
and Job Seekers Benefit for the self-employed, are all on track and will be unaffected
by Brexit.
● Housing construction is increasing and there is some evidence of house prices levelling
off. More than 20k new homes were built in the past year.
However, the impressive performance of our economy has resulted in the emergence of real
capacity constraints.
The housing shortage is a huge social and economic challenge. External risks have also grown.
Not only is a disorderly no-deal Brexit more likely, trade tensions are threatening the global
Our planning for Budget 2020 is informed and shaped by these risks. I want to thank this
Chamber for its submission and we are studying it closely. We agree with John McGrane when
he says, ‘we all have to balance short term uncertainty with long term imperatives.’
I believe we must protect the progress we have made in economic terms and also in terms of
advancing social justice, equality of opportunity and improving quality of life. This means three
things.
First, we must not allow our day-to-day spending to increase too fast. However, we are playing
catch-up on our national infrastructure, and our detailed plans in Project Ireland 2040 are
deliberately designed to solve this problem. So capital spending, that's spending on public
infrastructure, will increase by more than 10% next year, on top of 25% this year.
Second, we must not become over-reliant on volatile revenues. As you know, over the last few
years we have benefitted from bumper corporation tax receipts. However, we can’t assume that
money will always be there. That's why so much is going into capital. You only need to build a
Third, we need to respond to the long-term challenge of climate change in this budget and every
Mr. President
We cannot mitigate all risks. We can take decisive and positive action to minimise the fallout.
We will work with you and the companies you represent to make our passage through these
turbulent times as predictable and secure as possible. Whatever the future holds for our closest
neighbour, businesses here are going to want to, and need to continue, trading across the border
Mr. President
Four times in our history, we travelled a different road to Britain. When we became independent
a hundred years ago, when we became a Republic and left the Commonwealth, when we broke
the link with Sterling and when we joined the euro without the UK. On all four occasions, there
were enormous challenges. On all four occasions we emerged stronger and continued to trade
This Chamber was founded to protect and enhance the British-Irish trading relationship. That is
I am committed to working with you to prepare and protect businesses for the changes that will
come.
Mr. President
Charles Stewart Parnell, one of my great political heros has been invoked this week in another
Parnell believed that our future prosperity depended on us being ‘hopeful, energetic and
determined’. They are three qualities which are needed now more than ever as we deal with the
challenge of Brexit. We must be hopeful about finding a solution, energetic in preparing for the
worst that might happen, and determined to defend the all island economy, peace, and all that we
value.
Thank You.